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Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region., (© 2024 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Temperature extreme indices were analyzed for five continental regions of southern South America defined according to their climatic characteristics. Gridded observations, reanalysis, and global-coupled climate models from CMIP5 were used with the approach of temperature extreme trend attribution analysis on fixed-threshold and percentile-based temperature extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The largest positive trends are exhibited in the tropical nights index, and a clear anthropogenic signal is evident in the subtropical region. In the subtropical central Andes, there is a decrease in the frost days index and increases in the tropical nights and summer days indices, and an anthropogenic signal is evident. In the Patagonian region, all trends from the historical runs were significant, while the ones from the natural experiment were nonsignificant, showing the marked effect of anthropogenic forcing in this region in the extreme temperature events. Projected changes in extreme indices for the 21st century are consistent with a warming climate, and larger changes are expected in the warm nights index., (© 2021 New York Academy of Sciences.)

Precipitation extremes have surged in frequency and duration in recent decades, significantly impacting various sectors, including agriculture, water resources, energy, and public health worldwide. Pakistan, being highly susceptible to climate change and extremes, has experienced adverse events in recent times, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive investigation into the relationship between precipitation extremes and crops production. This study focuses on assessing the association between precipitation extremes on crops production, with a particular emphasis on the Punjab province, a crucial region for the country's food production. The initial phase of the study involved exploring the associations between precipitation extremes and crops production for the duration of 1980-2014. Notably, certain precipitation extremes, such as maximum CDDs (consecutive dry days), R99p (extreme precipitation events), PRCPTOT (precipitation total) and SDII (simple daily intensity index) exhibited strong correlations with the production of key crops like wheat, rice, garlic, dates, moong, and masoor. In the subsequent step, four machine learning (ML) algorithms were trained and tested using observed daily climate data (including maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) alongside model reference data (1985-2014) as predictors. Gradient boosting machine (GBM) was selected for its superior performance and employed to project precipitation extremes for three distinct future periods (F1: 2025-2049, F2: 2050-2074, F3: 2075-2099) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 derived from the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) archive. The projection results indicated an increasing and decreasing trend in CWDs (maximum consecutive wet days) and CDDs, respectively, at various meteorological stations. Furthermore, R10mm (the number of days with precipitation equal to or exceeding 10 mm) and R25mm displayed an overall increasing trend at most of the stations, though some exhibited a decreasing trend. These trends in precipitation extremes have potential consequences, including the risk of flash floods and damage to agriculture and infrastructure. However, the study emphasizes that with proper planning, adaptation measures, and mitigation strategies, the potential losses and damages can be significantly minimized in the future., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Drought and nitrogen enrichment could profoundly affect the productivity of semiarid ecosystems. However, how ecosystem productivity will respond to different drought scenarios, especially with a concurrent increase in nitrogen availability, is still poorly understood. Using data from a 4-year field experiment conducted in a semiarid temperate steppe, we explored the responses of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) to different drought scenarios and nitrogen addition, and the underlying mechanisms linking soil properties, plant species richness, functional diversity (community-weighted means of plant traits, functional dispersion) and phylogenetic diversity (net relatedness index) to ANPP. Our results showed that completely excluding precipitation in June (1-month intense drought) and reducing half the precipitation amount from June to August (season-long chronic drought) both significantly reduced ANPP, with the latter having a more negative impact on ANPP. However, reducing half of the precipitation frequency from June to August (precipitation redistribution) had no significant effect on ANPP. Nitrogen addition increased ANPP irrespective of drought scenarios. ANPP was primarily determined by soil moisture and nitrogen availability by regulating the community-weighted means of plant height, rather than other aspects of plant diversity. Our findings suggest that precipitation amount is more important than precipitation redistribution in influencing the productivity of temperate steppe, and nitrogen supply could alleviate the adverse impacts of drought on grassland productivity. Our study advances the mechanistic understanding of how the temperate grassland responds to drought stress, and implies that management strategies to protect tall species in the community would be beneficial for maintaining the productivity and carbon sequestration of grassland ecosystems under climate drought., (© 2024 The Ecological Society of America.)

Nocturnal temperatures are increasing at a pace exceeding diurnal temperatures in most parts of the world. The role of warmer nocturnal temperatures in animal ecology has received scant attention and most studies focus on diurnal or daily descriptors of thermal environments' temporal trends. Yet, available evidence from plant and insect studies suggests that organisms can exhibit contrasting physiological responses to diurnal and nocturnal warming. Limiting studies to diurnal trends can thus result in incomplete and misleading interpretations of the ability of species to cope with global warming. Although they are expected to be impacted by warmer nocturnal temperatures, insufficient data are available regarding the night-time ecology of vertebrate ectotherms. Here, we illustrate the complex effects of nocturnal warming on squamate reptiles, a keystone group of vertebrate ectotherms. Our review includes discussion of diurnal and nocturnal ectotherms, but we mainly focus on diurnal species for which nocturnal warming affects a period dedicated to physiological recovery, and thus may perturb activity patterns and energy balance. We first summarise the physical consequences of nocturnal warming on habitats used by squamate reptiles. Second, we describe how such changes can alter the energy balance of diurnal species. We illustrate this with empirical data from the asp viper (Vipera aspis) and common wall lizard (Podarcis muralis), two diurnal species found throughout western Europe. Third, we make use of a mechanistic approach based on an energy-balance model to draw general conclusions about the effects of nocturnal temperatures. Fourth, we examine how warmer nights may affect squamates over their lifetime, with potential consequences on individual fitness and population dynamics. We review quantitative evidence for such lifetime effects using recent data derived from a range of studies on the European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara). Finally, we consider the broader eco-evolutionary ramifications of nocturnal warming and highlight several research questions that require future attention. Our work emphasises the importance of considering the joint influence of diurnal and nocturnal warming on the responses of vertebrate ectotherms to climate warming., (© 2023 Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

We conducted an analysis of 16 historical simulations from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 6 (CMIP6). These simulations encompass both high- and low-resolution models and aim to investigate the impact of improved horizontal resolution on mean and extreme precipitation in West Africa between 1985 and 2014. Six Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were used to charactererize extreme indices. Bias adjustment was used to detect and adjust the biases in the models. Our observations indicate that the southeastern and southwestern regions of West Africa experience the most significant precipitation, which aligns with the simulations from HighResMIP. The enhanced horizontal resolution notably influences the simulation of orographically induced rainfall in elevated areas and intensifies precipitation in various aspects. When examining the highest 1-day precipitation, our observations reveal that most of the Guinea Coast region had 1-day rainfall exceeding 100 mm. However, this was overestimated and in some simulations underestimated by HighResMIP simulations. Furthermore, an increase in horizontal resolution appears to enhance the ability of high-resolution models to replicate the observed patterns of heavy precipitation (R10mm) and very heavy rainfall (R20mm) days. Spatial and temporal analysis suggests that uncertainty exists in the simulation of extreme precipitation in both high- and low-resolution simulations over West Africa. Also, bias adjustment shows a significant bias in the simulations. To address this issue, we employed a bias adjustment approach., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

The accelerating pace of climate change has led to unprecedented shifts in surface temperature and precipitation patterns worldwide, with African savannas being among the most vulnerable regions. Understanding the impacts of these extreme changes on ecosystem health, functioning and stability is crucial. This paper focuses on the detection of breakpoints, indicative of shifts in ecosystem functioning, while also determining relevant ecosystem characteristics and climatic drivers that increase susceptibility to these shifts within the semi-arid to arid savanna biome. Utilising a remote sensing change detection approach and rain use efficiency (RaUE) as a proxy for ecosystem functioning, spatial and temporal patterns of breakpoints in the savanna biome were identified. We then employed a novel combination of survival analysis and remote sensing time series analysis to compare ecosystem characteristics and climatic drivers in areas experiencing breakpoints versus areas with stable ecosystem functioning. Key ecosystem factors increasing savanna breakpoint susceptibility were identified, namely higher soil sand content, flatter terrain and a cooler long-term mean temperature during the wet summer season. Moreover, the primary driver of changes in ecosystem functioning in arid savannas, as opposed to wetter tropical savannas, was found to be the increased frequency and severity of rainfall events, rather than drought pressures. This research highlights the importance of incorporating wetness severity metrics alongside drought metrics to comprehensively understand climate-ecosystem interactions leading to abrupt shifts in ecosystem functioning in arid biomes. The findings also emphasise the need to consider the underlying ecosystem characteristics, including soil, topography and vegetation composition, in assessing ecosystem responses to climate change. While this research primarily concentrated on the southern African savanna as a case study, the methodological robustness of this approach enables its application to diverse arid and semi-arid biomes for the assessment of climate-ecosystem interactions that contribute to abrupt shifts., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Increasing rainfall variability is widely expected under future climate change scenarios. How will savanna trees and grasses be affected by growing season dry spells and altered seasonality and how tightly coupled are tree-grass phenologies with rainfall? We measured tree and grass responses to growing season dry spells and dry season rainfall. We also tested whether the phenologies of 17 deciduous woody species and the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index of grasses were related to rainfall between 2019 and 2023. Tree and grass growth was significantly reduced during growing season dry spells. Tree growth was strongly related to growing season soil water potentials and limited to the wet season. Grasses can rapidly recover after growing season dry spells and grass evapotranspiration was significantly related to soil water potentials in both the wet and dry seasons. Tree leaf flushing commenced before the rainfall onset date with little subsequent leaf flushing. Grasses grew when moisture became available regardless of season. Our findings suggest that increased dry spell length and frequency in the growing season may slow down tree growth in some savannas, which together with longer growing seasons may allow grasses an advantage over C 3 plants that are advantaged by rising CO 2 levels., (© 2024 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2024 New Phytologist Foundation.)

Increases in extremely large precipitation events (deluges) and shifts in seasonal patterns of water availability with climate change will both have important consequences for ecosystem function, particularly in water-limited regions. While previous work in the semi-arid shortgrass steppe of northeastern Colorado has demonstrated this ecosystem's strong sensitivity to growing season deluges, our understanding of ecosystem responses to deluges during the dormant season is limited. Here, we imposed experimental 100 mm deluges (~ 30% of mean annual precipitation) in either September or October in a native C 4 -dominated shortgrass steppe ecosystem to evaluate the impact of this post-growing season shift in water availability during the autumn and the following growing season. Soil moisture for both deluge treatments remained elevated compared with ambient levels through April as spring precipitation was atypically low. Despite overall low levels of productivity with spring drought, these deluges from the previous autumn increased aboveground net primary production (ANPP), primarily due to increases with C 4 grasses. C 3 ANPP was also enhanced, largely due to an increase in the annual C 3 grass, Vulpia octoflora, in the October deluge treatment. While spring precipitation has historically been the primary determinant of ecosystem function in this ecosystem, this combination of two climate extremes-an extremely wet autumn followed by a naturally-occurring spring drought-revealed the potential for meaningful carryover effects from autumn precipitation. With climate change increasing the likelihood of extremes during all seasons, experiments which create novel climatic conditions can provide new insight into the dynamics of ecosystem functioning in the future., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Extreme weather events (EWEs; for example, heatwaves, cold spells, storms, floods and droughts) and non-native species invasions are two major threats to global biodiversity and are increasing in both frequency and consequences. Here we synthesize 443 studies and apply multilevel mixed-effects metaregression analyses to compare the responses of 187 non-native and 1,852 native animal species across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems to different types of EWE. Our results show that marine animals, regardless of whether they are non-native or native, are overall insensitive to EWEs, except for negative effects of heatwaves on native mollusks, corals and anemone. By contrast, terrestrial and freshwater non-native animals are only adversely affected by heatwaves and storms, respectively, whereas native animals negatively respond to heatwaves, cold spells and droughts in terrestrial ecosystems and are vulnerable to most EWEs except cold spells in freshwater ecosystems. On average, non-native animals displayed low abundance in terrestrial ecosystems, and decreased body condition and life history traits in freshwater ecosystems, whereas native animals displayed declines in body condition, life history traits, abundance, distribution and recovery in terrestrial ecosystems, and community structure in freshwater ecosystems. By identifying areas with high overlap between EWEs and EWE-tolerant non-native species, we also provide locations where native biodiversity might be adversely affected by their joint effects and where EWEs might facilitate the establishment and/or spread of non-native species under continuing global change., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Climate change is arguably the most alarming global concern of the twenty-first century, particularly due to the increased frequency of meteorological extremes, e.g., heatwaves, droughts, and floods. Heatwaves are considered a potential health risk and urge further study, robust preparedness, and policy framing. This study presents an analysis of heatwave characteristics for historical (1980-2014), near-future (2021-2055), and far-future (2056-2090) scenarios over three highly populated cities of South India, i.e., Bangalore, Chennai, and Hyderabad. Two different approaches, i.e., the India Meteorological Department (IMD) criterion and the percentile-based criterion, are considered for defining the threshold of a heatwave day. Nine general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) experiment are selected, evaluated after bias correction, and the best performer was utilized to obtain the temperature projections corresponding to two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and 5-8.5) for the future periods. The results reveal a high frequency of heatwave days over the cities in recent years from both approaches, which may further exacerbate in the future, thereby putting a large population at risk. The number of heatwave days is much higher for SSP5-8.5 than that for SSP2-4.5, depicting the direct effects of anthropogenic activities on the frequency of heatwaves. The detailed analysis of heatwave projections will help develop equitable heat resilient mitigation and adaptation strategies for the future, thereby alleviating their pernicious impacts., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Understanding the spatiotemporal variations in climate extremes indices, as well as the influencing factors, is critical to the scientific response to climate change. The temporal and spatial variations of SU25 (annual count of days when daily maximum temperature > 25 °C) were discussed in this study, based on daily maximum temperature data from 2398 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2017. The contributions of associated large-scale circulation factors to SU25 were quantitatively assessed by using the geographical detector method (GMD). The overall spatial distribution of SU25 was marked by a considerable increase from north to south. The SU25 increased significantly over time, with the national SU25 increasing at a rate of 2.5 days/decade. The Tibet Plateau (TP) had the slowest growth rate, with an average increase rate of 1.4 days/decade. The Hurst values of SU25 in all the subregions were generally high, indicating that most stations of SU25 would continue to increase in the future. Except for TP, the tipping years of other subregions were concentrated in the 1990s, and SU25 increased after the years. Among the large-scale circulation factors affecting SU25 in each subregion, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) played a major role in SU25 variability. As a whole, the result of the pairwise interaction of each circulation factor was mainly nonlinear enhancement. The joint contributions of multiple factors to SU25 were larger than the contribution of each individual factor., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

The study projects climate over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), covering geographic areas in India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China, under the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), viz., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by the late twenty-first century using the best-fit climate model validated against the climate observations from eight meteorological stations. GFDL CM3 performed better than the other five evaluated climate models in simulating the climate of the UIB. The model bias was significantly reduced by the Aerts and Droogers statistical downscaling method, and the projections overall revealed a significant increase in temperature and a slight increase in precipitation across the UIB comprising of Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus sub-basins. According to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum are projected to increase by 3 °C and 5.2 °C and 0.8% and 3.4% respectively by the late twenty-first century. The temperature and precipitation in the Chenab are projected to increase by 3.5 °C and 4.8 °C and  8% and 8.2% respectively by the late twenty-first century under the two scenarios. The temperature and precipitation in the Indus are projected to increase by 4.8 °C and 6.5 °C and 2.6% and 8.7% respectively by the late twenty-first century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The late twenty-first century projected climate would have significant impacts on various ecosystem services and products, irrigation and socio-hydrological regimes, and various dependent livelihoods. It is therefore hoped that the high-resolution climate projections would be useful for impact assessment studies to inform policymaking for climate action in the UIB., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Many studies have detected a relationship between diarrhea morbidity rates with the changes in precipitation, temperature, floods, droughts, water shortage, etc. But, most of the authors were cautious in their studies, because of the lack of empirical climate-health data and there were large uncertainties in the future projections. The study aimed to refine the link between the morbidity rates of diarrhea in some Egyptian governorates representative of the three Egyptian geographical divisions with the meteorological changes that occurred in the 2006-2016 period for which the medical data are available, as a case study. Medical raw data was collected from the Information Centre Department of the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population. The meteorological data of temperature and precipitation extremes were defined as data outside the 10th-90th percentile range of values of the period of study, and their analysis was done using a methodology similar to the one recommended by the WMO and integrated in the CLIMDEX software. Relationships between the morbidity rates of diarrhea in seven Egyptian governorates and the meteorological changes that occurred in the period 2006 to 2016 were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis to identify the most effective meteorological factor that affects the trend of morbidity rate of diarrhea in each governorate. Statistical analysis revealed that some meteorological parameters can be used as predictors for morbidity rates of diarrhea in Cairo, Alexandria, and Gharbia, but not in Aswan, Behaira, and Dakahlia where the temporal evolution cannot be related with meteorology. In Red Sea, there was no temporal trend and no significant relationships between the diarrhea morbidity rate and meteorological parameters. The predictor meteorological parameters for morbidity rates of diarrhea were found to be depending on the geographic locations and infrastructures in these governorates. It was concluded that the meteorological data that can be used as predictors for the morbidity rate of diarrhea is depending on the geographical location and infrastructures of the target location. The socioeconomic levels as well as the infrastructures in the governorate must be considered confounders in future studies., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

This study aimed to evaluate the change in the air temperature and the impacts of heat waves using Climate Change Indexes on the physiological and productive responses of lactating Holstein cows. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperature for 1981-2021 were used. Heat waves were determined using six Climate Change Indexes. Individual data on respiratory rate, rectal temperature, and milk yield were collected in the summers of 2018, 2019, and 2021. The temperature trend analysis showed a significant (p < 0.0001) increase in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and days in a heat wave. All six indexes increased significantly (p > 0.01). The increase in warm nights (> 20 °C) and the hottest days (> 35 °C) was the highest since 2010. Heat waves were classified into short (< 5 days) and long (> 5 days) of greater (> 36 °C) or lesser (< 36 °C) intensity. During the long and short heat waves of greater intensity, the respiratory rate increased (p < 0.05) until the fourth day. On the other hand, rectal temperature was higher (p < 0.05) from the fourth day until the end of the long heat waves. Therefore, the decrease in milk yield was significantly greater from the fourth or fifth day onwards. Finally, the evaluation method based on indexes was efficient to demonstrate the negative effects on physiological parameters and milk yield and can be indicated to evaluate heat stress in lactating cows., (© 2022. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to International Society of Biometeorology.)

Climate change is altering temperature and precipitation, resulting in widespread plant mortality and shifts in plant distributions. Plants growing in soil types with low water holding capacity may experience intensified effects of reduced water availability as a result of climate change. Furthermore, complex biotic interactions between plants and soil organisms may mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change. This 3-year field experiment observed the performance of Bouteloua gracilis ecotypes that were transplanted across an environmental gradient with either sympatric soil from the seed source location or allopatric soil from the location that plants were transplanted into. We also inoculated plants with either sympatric or allopatric soil biotic communities to test: (1) how changes in climate alone influence plant growth, (2) how soil types interact with climate to influence plant growth, and (3) the role of soil biota in mitigating plant migration to novel environments. As expected, plants moved to cooler-wetter sites exhibited enhanced growth; however, plants moved to warmer-drier sites responded variably depending on the provenance of their soil and inoculum. Soil and inoculum provenance had little influence on the performance of plants moved to cooler-wetter sites, but at warmer-drier sites they were important predictors of plant biomass, seed set, and specific leaf area. Specifically, transplants inoculated with their sympatric soil biota and grown in their sympatric soil were as large as or larger than reference plants grown at the seed source locations; however, individuals inoculated with allopatric soil biota were smaller than reference site individuals at warmer, drier sites. These findings demonstrate complicated plant responses to various aspects of environmental novelty where communities of soil organisms may help ameliorate stress. The belowground microbiome of plants should be considered to predict the responses of vegetation more accurately to climate change., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Precipitation is one of the meteorological variables usually involved in the aerobiological studies, which presents a complex relationship with atmospheric levels of pollen and fungal spores and the temporal characteristics of their seasons. This complexity is due in a large part to rainfall's twofold impact of having, prior to pollination, a positive influence on subsequent pollen production and of contributing, during pollination, to pollen removal from the air through a wash-out effect. To better explore this impact, we place particular emphasis on extreme rainfall by calculating the correlation between airborne pollen and fungal spore parameters and the precipitation indices that the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) proposed for characterising climate extremes. Parameters for twenty-seven pollen and fungal spore taxa measured in six aerobiological stations in the NE Iberian Peninsula have been considered. We have distinguished between annual and winter ETCCDI in order to compare the correlations between extreme rainfall and airborne pollen concentrations and to avoid the wash-out effect as far as possible. Results show a positive influence from an increase in moderately extreme winter rainfall, specifically on subsequent pollen/fungal spore production: the percentage of all possible significant correlations is higher for winter than for annual rainfall. Furthermore, while annual rainfall in this region has nearly the same number of positive as negative correlations, the positive correlations for winter rainfall are more than twice that of the negative ones. The seasonal consideration on rainfall ETCCDI made with the aim to avoid the confounding overlapping of different rainfall impacts has led to more sharpened observations of its positive and negative effects on airborne pollen and fungal spore concentrations., (© 2022. The Author(s) under exclusive licence to International Society of Biometeorology.)

Fritillariae Cirrhosae Bulbus (FCB) is a famous traditional Chinese medicine, mainly used for relieving cough and resolving phlegm. According to Chinese Pharmacopoeia (2020), the medicine comes from dried bulbs of five species and one variety in Fritillaria. Due to climate change and human disturbance, the wild resources have become critically endangered in recent years. Following three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) under 2050s and 2070s, geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the ecological suitability of FCB, a third-grade rare and endangered medicinal plant species. The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of FCB were altitude, human activity intensity, and mean temperature of coldest quarter. Under current climate situation, the highly suitable areas were mainly located in the east of Qinghai Tibet Plateau, including Western Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, southern Gansu, Northwestern Yunnan, and Eastern Qinghai, with a total area of 31.47×10 4 km 2 , the area within the nature reserve was 7.13×10 4 km 2 , indicating that there was a large protection gap. Under the future climate change scenarios, the areas of the highly and poorly suitable areas of FCB showed a decreasing trend, while the areas of the moderately and total suitable areas showed an increasing trend. The geometric center of the total suitable area of the medicine will move to the northwest. The results could provide a strategic guidance for protection,development, and utilization of FCB though its prediction of potential distribution based on the key variables of climate change., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Climate extremes are becoming more prevalent and hazardous as global climate change increases. The purpose of this study was to find out how often severe rainfall and temperature events occur, as well as the study area's spatial vulnerability indexes to extremes of both indices. Thirty years of daily rainfall and temperature data from 10 national meteorological stations were used. Four rainfall and eight temperature extremes were extracted using Climpact2 software tools. These variables were calculated for standardized anomaly and vulnerability indices and mapped using ArcMap. The results showed that the spatial variation of climatic extremes in the study area was significantly varied. Avery high rainfall (R95P) and extremely high rainfall (R99P) were widely experienced in the study area's west-south, but in the southeast, similar trends were rare. R95P had a statistically significant growing trend, but R99P did not. The warmest night temperature (TNx) event was widely observed in the east, southeast, and northwest, but the coldest night temperature (TNn) was only found in the eastern part. Extremely cold daytime temperatures (TXn) were more prevalent in the south and southeast of the study area, whereas extremely warm daytime temperatures (TXx) were more prevalent in the north. The number of dry spells (CDD), R95P, R99P, cold spells at night (TN10P), warm spells at night (TN90P), cold spells during the day (TX10P), and warm spells during the day (TX10P) frequency bell curves were skewed to the left side of the histogram. This suggests that the distribution of the variables was not symmetrical due to the fact that the negative anomaly frequencies of the variables were higher than the positive ones. The results of the spatial vulnerability study show that all provinces were vulnerable to the combined effects of climatic extremes, with scores ranging from 0.20 to 0.8, with none of them vulnerable and extremely vulnerable areas. Omo-Nada and Chora-Botor were particularly sensitive to climate change with an average score of 0.61. Only 12 of the 27 severe climate indexes were taken into account in this study, and the remaining 15 extreme indices will have to be investigated further., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

The dynamics of total phosphorus (TP) in 18 strategic reservoirs of the high-density reservoir network of the Brazilian semiarid was evaluated during the wet and dry periods for the past 12 years. Seasonal overlying concentrations presented no significant differences for about 90% of the reservoirs (p>0.05). This was attributed to a trade-off between the hydrological/limnological processes occurring in the two seasons. Then, a transient complete-mix mass balance model was applied with particular adaptations for the tropical semiarid reservoirs to estimate the TP load for each season. Because of the relatively well-mixed conditions and high hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen concentrations during the wet season, the wet load was assumed to represent the external TP load. On the other hand, because of the absence of reservoir inflow during the dry season, phosphorus release under anoxic sediment conditions and wind-induced resuspension under shallow water depths, the dry load was assumed to reflect the internal TP load. The maximum external loads were related to peak inflows, notably after drought periods. Consistently, the largest internal loads were obtained during the drought periods, when the reservoirs were shallower and more prone to phosphorus release and resuspension. By comparing the impact of the two input load types, the wet period load was predominant in 72% of the reservoirs. The areal phosphorus loads ranged from 0.66 to 7.29 gP m 2 year -1 , which were consistent with the literature, despite the very high density of reservoirs. Finally, power-law curves including data for all studied reservoirs were adjusted between the dry period load and volume, dry and wet period loads, wet period load and inflow, and total load and catchment area, resulting in satisfactory R 2 (0.84-0.98)., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the 'Reasons for Concern' framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5-2 °C and very high risks between 2-3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Representative subsets of global climate models (GCMs) are often used in climate change impact studies to account for uncertainty in ensemble climate projections. However, the effectiveness of such subsets has seldom been assessed for the estimations of either the mean or the spread of the full ensembles. We assessed two different approaches that were employed to select 5 GCMs from a 20-member ensemble of GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble for projecting canola and spring wheat yields across Canada under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios in the periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, based on crop simulation models. Averages and spreads of the simulated crop yields using the 5-GCM subsets selected by T&P and KKZ approaches were compared with the full 20-GCM ensemble. Our results showed that the 5-GCM subsets selected by the two approaches could produce full-ensemble means with a relative absolute error of 2.9-4.7% for canola and 1.5-2.2% for spring wheat, and covers 61.8-91.1% and 66.1-80.8% of the full-ensemble spread for canola and spring wheat, respectively. Our results also demonstrated that both approaches were very likely to outperform a subset of randomly selected 5 GCMs in terms of a smaller error and a larger range., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Nocturnal stomatal conductance (g sn ) represents a significant source of water loss, with implications for metabolism, thermal regulation and water-use efficiency. With increasing nocturnal temperatures due to climate change, it is vital to identify and understand variation in the magnitude and responses of g sn in major crops. We assessed interspecific variation in g sn and daytime stomatal conductance (g s ) in a wild relative and modern spring wheat genotype. To investigate intraspecific variation, we grew six modern wheat genotypes and two landraces under well watered, simulated field conditions. For the diurnal data, higher g sn in the wild relative was associated with significantly lower nocturnal respiration and higher daytime CO 2 assimilation while both species exhibited declines in g sn post-dusk and pre-dawn. Lifetime g sn achieved rates of 5.7-18.9% of g s . Magnitude of g sn was genotype specific 'and positively correlated with g s . g sn and g s were significantly higher on the adaxial surface. No relationship was determined between harvest characteristics, stomatal morphology and g sn , while cuticular conductance was genotype specific. Finally, for the majority of genotypes, g sn declined with age. Here we present the discovery that variation in g sn occurs across developmental, morphological and temporal scales in nonstressed wheat, presenting opportunities for exploiting intrinsic variation under heat or water stressed conditions., (© 2021 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2021 New Phytologist Foundation.)

The present study aims to assess the recent changes and trends in the extreme climate indices in the Kashmir basin using the observational records from 1980 to 2016. The extreme climate indices were computed using the ClimPACT2 software and a total of 39 indices were selected for the analysis having particular utility to various sectors like agriculture, water resources, energy consumption, and human health. Besides adopting the station scale analysis, regional averages were computed for each index. In terms of the mean climatology, an increase has been observed in the annual mean temperature with a magnitude of 0.024 °C/year. Further, differential warming patterns have been observed in the mean maximum and minimum temperatures with mean maximum temperature revealing higher increases than mean minimum temperature. On the other hand, the annual precipitation shows a decrease over most of the region, and the decreases are more pronouncing in the higher altitudes. The trend analysis of the extreme indices reveals that in consonance with the rising temperature there has been an increase in the warm temperatures and decrease in the cold temperatures across the Kashmir basin. Furthermore, our analysis suggests a decrease in the extreme precipitation events. The drought indices viz., Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) manifest decreasing trends with the tendency towards drier regimes implying the need for better water resource management in the region under changing climate., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Asymmetric warming resulting in a faster increase in night compared to day temperatures affects crop yields negatively. Physiological characterization and agronomic findings have been complemented more recently by molecular biology approaches including transcriptomic, proteomic, metabolomic and lipidomic investigations in crops exposed to high night temperature (HNT) conditions. Nevertheless, the understanding of the underlying mechanisms causing yield decline under HNT is still limited. The discovery of significant differences between HNT-tolerant and HNT-sensitive cultivars is one of the main research directions to secure continuous food supply under the challenge of increasing climate change. With this review, we provide a summary of current knowledge on the physiological and molecular basis of contrasting HNT tolerance in rice and wheat cultivars. Requirements for HNT tolerance and the special adaptation strategies of the HNT-tolerant rice cultivar Nagina-22 (N22) are discussed. Putative metabolite markers for HNT tolerance useful for marker-assisted breeding are suggested, together with future research directions aimed at improving food security under HNT conditions., (© 2021 The Authors. Plant, Cell & Environment published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The vulnerability of rangeland beef cattle production to increasing climate variability in the US Great Plains has received minimal attention in spite of potentially adverse socioeconomic and ecological consequences. Vulnerability was assessed as the frequency and magnitude of years in which net primary production (NPP) deviated >±25% from mean values, to represent major forage surplus and deficit years, for a historic reference period (1981-2010), mid-century (2041-2065), and late-century (2075-2099) periods. NPP was simulated by MC2, a dynamic global vegetation model, driven by five climate projections for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Historically, 4-4.7 years per decade showed either NPP surpluses or deficits. The future number of extreme years increased to 5.4-6.4 and 5.9-6.9 per decade for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, which represents an increase of 33%-56% and 38%-73%, respectively. Future simulations exhibited increases in surplus years to between 3 and 5 years in the Northern Plains and 3-3.5 in the Southern Plains. The number of deficit years remained near historic values of 2 in the Northern Plains, but increased in the Southern Plains from 2.5 to 3.3 per decade. Historically, NPP in extreme surplus and deficit years both deviated 40% from mean NPP in all three regions. The magnitude of deficit years increased by 6%-17% in future simulations for all three regions, while the magnitude of surplus years decreased 16% in the Northern Plains and increased 16% in the Southern Plains. The Southern Plains was the only region to exhibit an increase in the magnitude of both surplus and deficit years. Unprecedented future variability of NPP may surpass the existing adaptive capacity of beef producers and adversely impact the economic viability of rangeland cattle production and ecological sustainability of rangeland resources., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Coastal storms have increased in recent decades, affecting many species, including the South American sea lion (Otaria byronia). Reports of stranded sea lion pups are becoming common in Chile, presumably due to the increase in the frequency and intensity of coastal storms. To validate this assumption, a 10-year database was built by coupling wave generation and coastal propagation models to correlate pure wave parameters (significant wave height Hs, peak period Tp, normalized wave power Hs 2 Tp) and wave parameters including the tidal level (maximum surface elevation η, modified wave power η 2 Tp) with records of stranded pups in Cobquecura, the largest breeding colony in central Chile. The correlation between the number of pups stranded per day and wave parameters in the first half of January and the last half of February is poor, while they are stronger for the second half of January and the first half of February. The higher number of stranded pups coincide with coastal storms with normalized wave power values exceeding a threshold of 100 m 2 /s. Conversely, below this threshold there is wide dispersion between the number of strandings and wave parameters. Identifying wave parameter thresholds could be used to predict when newborn pups will be most affected by coastal storms, and thus help institutions to develop remediation techniques for animals at risk.

Our paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of observed trends in extreme rainfall events in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). These are discussed in relation to hydrometeorological hazards that trigger natural disasters, such as flash floods, landslides, and droughts, that affect the population and local economies. A review of the most updated literature on rainfall and extremes in the MASP shows a significant increase in the total volume of rainy-season rainfall during the last seven decades. While there were practically no days with heavy rain (more than 50 mm) in the 1950s, these days have been occurring two to five times a year in the last 10 years. This, together with the inappropriate occupation of risky areas, such as slopes and banks of watercourses, leads to inundation, flooding, and landslides. Changes in extremes can be partly due to natural climate variability but can also be related to global warming and/or urbanization. There is ample evidence of an increasing risk of rainfall-related hazards in the MASP. This is particularly so for landslides in vulnerable areas. Exposure will continue to lead to risk increases. This calls for significant improvement in climate and disaster risk reduction and management efforts in the MASP region., (© 2020 New York Academy of Sciences.)

Rice yield have been affected by the increased extreme precipitation events in recent decades. Yet, the spatio-temporal patterns of extreme precipitation by rice type and phenology remain elusive. Here, we investigate the characteristics of four extreme precipitation indices across China's rice paddy and their potential association with crop yields, by using hourly precipitation data from 1,215 stations and rice phenology observations from 45 sub-regions. The data indicate that hourly extreme precipitation have significantly increased in 1961-2012 for single rice and early rice in China but not for late rice. Rice were mainly exposed to extreme precipitation from transplantation to flowering stages. The frequency and proportion of extreme precipitation were significantly increased by 2.0-4.7% and 2.3-2.9% per decade, respectively, mainly in south China and Yangtze River Basin. The precipitation intensity and maximum hourly precipitation were increased by 0.7-1.1% and 0.9-2.8% per decade, respectively, mainly in central China and southeast coastal area. These extreme precipitation indices played a role as important as accumulated precipitation and mean temperature on the interannual variability of rice yields, regardless of rice types. Our results also highlight the urgencies to uncover the underlying mechanisms of extreme precipitation on rice growth, which in turn strengthens the predictability of crop models.

Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of "seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable". Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation.

Unlike sporadic daytime heat spikes, a consistent increase in night-time temperatures can potentially derail the genetic gains being achieved. Ten winter wheat genotypes were exposed to six different night-time temperatures (15-27°C) during flowering and grain-filling stages in controlled environment chambers. We identified the night-time temperature of 23 o C as the critical threshold beyond which a consistent decline in yields and quality was observed. Confocal laser scanning micrographs of central endosperm, bran, and germ tissue displayed differential accumulation of protein, lipid, and starch with increasing night-time temperatures. KS07077M-1 recorded a decrease in starch and an increase in protein and lipid in central endosperm with increasing night-time temperatures, whereas the same was significantly lower in the tolerant SY Monument. Expression analysis of genes encoding 21 enzymes (including isoforms) involved in grain-starch metabolism in developing grains revealed a high night-time temperature (HNT)-induced reduction in transcript levels of adenosine diphosphate glucose pyrophosphorylase small subunit involved in starch synthesis and a ≥2-fold increase in starch degrading enzymes isoamylase III, alpha-, and beta-amylase. The identified critical threshold, grain compositional changes, and the key enzymes in grain starch metabolism that lead to poor starch accumulation in grains establish the foundational knowledge for enhancing HNT tolerance in wheat., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Projections of climate change are available at coarse scales (70-400 km). But agricultural and species models typically require finer scale climate data to model climate change impacts. Here, we present a global database of future climates developed by applying the delta method -a method for climate model bias correction. We performed a technical evaluation of the bias-correction method using a 'perfect sibling' framework and show that it reduces climate model bias by 50-70%. The data include monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and monthly total precipitation, and a set of bioclimatic indices, and can be used for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture and biodiversity. The data are publicly available in the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC; cera-www.dkrz.de), as well as in the CCAFS-Climate data portal (http://ccafs-climate.org). The database has been used up to date in more than 350 studies of ecosystem and agricultural impact assessment.

With accumulation of carbon cycle observations and model developments over the past decades, exploring interannual variation (IAV) of terrestrial carbon cycle offers the opportunity to better understand climate-carbon cycle relationships. However, despite growing research interest, uncertainties remain on some fundamental issues, such as the contributions of different regions, constituent fluxes and climatic factors to carbon cycle IAV. Here we overviewed the literature on carbon cycle IAV about current understanding of these issues. Observations and models of the carbon cycle unanimously show the dominance of tropical land ecosystems to the signal of global carbon cycle IAV, where tropical semiarid ecosystems contribute as much as the combination of all other tropical ecosystems. Vegetation photosynthesis contributes more than ecosystem respiration to IAV of the global net land carbon flux, but large uncertainties remain on the contribution of fires and other disturbance fluxes. Climatic variations are the major drivers to the IAV of net land carbon flux. Although debate remains on whether the dominant driver is temperature or moisture variability, their interaction,that is, the dependence of carbon cycle sensitivity to temperature on moisture conditions, is emerging as key regulators of the carbon cycle IAV. On timescales from the interannual to the centennial, global carbon cycle variability will be increasingly contributed by northern land ecosystems and oceans. Therefore, both improving Earth system models (ESMs) with the progressive understanding on the fast processes manifested at interannual timescale and expanding carbon cycle observations at broader spatial and longer temporal scales are critical to better prediction on evolution of the carbon-climate system., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Understanding which species and ecosystems will be most severely affected by warming as climate change advances is important for guiding conservation and management. Both marine and terrestrial fauna have been affected by warming 1,2 but an explicit comparison of physiological sensitivity between the marine and terrestrial realms has been lacking. Assessing how close populations live to their upper thermal limits has been challenging, in part because extreme temperatures frequently drive demographic responses 3,4 and yet fauna can use local thermal refugia to avoid extremes 5-7 . Here we show that marine ectotherms experience hourly body temperatures that are closer to their upper thermal limits than do terrestrial ectotherms across all latitudes-but that this is the case only if terrestrial species can access thermal refugia. Although not a direct prediction of population decline, this thermal safety margin provides an index of the physiological stress caused by warming. On land, the smallest thermal safety margins were found for species at mid-latitudes where the hottest hourly body temperatures occurred; by contrast, the marine species with the smallest thermal safety margins were found near the equator. We also found that local extirpations related to warming have been twice as common in the ocean as on land, which is consistent with the smaller thermal safety margins at sea. Our results suggest that different processes will exacerbate thermal vulnerability across these two realms. Higher sensitivities to warming and faster rates of colonization in the marine realm suggest that extirpations will be more frequent and species turnover faster in the ocean. By contrast, terrestrial species appear to be more vulnerable to loss of access to thermal refugia, which would make habitat fragmentation and changes in land use critical drivers of species loss on land.

Surface-water quality can change in response to climate perturbations, such as changes in the frequency of heavy precipitation or droughts, through direct effects, such as dilution and concentration, and through physical processes, such as bank scour. Water quality might also change through indirect mechanisms, such as changing water demand or changes in runoff interaction with organic matter on the landscape. Many studies predict future changes in water-quality related to climate changes; however, fewer studies specifically document changes in water quality related to changes in climate, and they are usually limited in geographic scope. Recently, the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Program reported nearly 12,000 trends in concentration and load for numerous water-quality constituents, including nutrients, sediment, major ions, and carbon. The results provide an unprecedented opportunity to examine sites across the conterminous United States for changes in water quality related to climate changes. We used published water-quality trends, modeled using the method of Weighted Regressions on Time, Season and Discharge, and calculated trends in climate extremes indices, using a modified Mann-Kendall trend method. The water-quality and the climate extremes trends were combined to identify areas in the conterminous United States where changes in climate extremes may have changed water quality. We investigated the water-quality trends in these areas to determine whether the trends related to changes in climate. We found that it was important to go beyond spatial correlation and examine trends on a watershed scale to investigate key drivers of trends. We found successful management practices in Iowa to reduce chloride concentrations, despite increases in icing days. For sediment, it appeared that management practices were having a larger effect than climate changes. For nutrients, complex forces affecting water quality make it difficult to unequivocally attribute water-quality change to climate change., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 United States Geological Survey (USGS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

One of the main challenges in climate change impact assessment studies is selecting climate change scenarios. By focusing on selecting projected extremes in a high dimensional space, one is confronted with the shrinkage of ensemble size while preserving the projection spread. This study proposes a novel integrated computational geometry algorithm to select extreme climate change scenarios in a high dimensional space. A set of 12 prominent climate extremes indices were used (as input to the algorithm) out of the 27 core indices recommended by the World Meteorological Organization's Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The ETCCDI indices were projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the period of 2081-2100 relative to the baseline period 1986-2005. The approach enables the user to shrink the initial selected ensemble into smaller sub-ensembles while still capturing a wide range of simulated changes for selected climatological variables. The conservation of the projection spread was evaluated using a robust validation method when the spread error was calculated for each simulation run. The developed algorithm was applied to three different regions where the geographical domain was narrowed-down from sub-continental (western North America) to its regional (Alberta, Canada), and local (Athabasca River basin, Alberta, Canada) subdomains. Results revealed that selected extreme scenarios can vary from one region to another within the same geographical domain in response to the spatial variation in climatic regime., (Crown Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)