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Purpose: Obesity is rising among people with HIV (PLWH), sparking interest in bariatric surgery (BS) for this group. Yet, large-scale comparative research on BS outcomes in PLWH is lacking., Methods: We performed a retrospective, matched cohort analysis in PLWH and HIV uninfected controls. Subjects were retrieved from the Dutch Audit for Treatment of Obesity (DATO) registry. Matching (1:7 ratio) included age (± 5-years), sex, body-mass index (BMI) of ± 3 kg/m 2 , surgery type, and associated health problems (AHPs) at baseline. The primary endpoint was total weight loss percentage (%TWL) ≥ 20% achieved at 1-year post-BS. Secondary endpoints were cumulative %TWL achieved at 2-years post-BS, a reported remission or improvement in AHPs post-BS, and surgical complications, both at 1-year post-BS. Comparisons were performed using conditional logistic regression., Results: Twenty-seven PLWH and 168 controls were included. At 1-year post-BS, 89% PLWH achieved ≥ 20%TWL, compared to 94% of controls (p = 0.4). Cumulative %TWL at 2-years post-BS were 82% and 92% in PLWH and controls, respectively (p = 0.2). Improvement rates in hypertension and type 2 diabetes mellitus were 50% and 86% in PLWH, versus 87% and 87% in controls. Full remission occurred in 20% and 71% of PLHIV, versus 49% and 44% of controls, respectively. No improvement or remission was observed for dyslipidaemia in PLHIV compared to 54% improvement and 29% remission in controls. Surgical complications were 0% in PLHIV and 13% (n = 21) in controls., Conclusion: Efficacy and safety outcomes of BS were similar between PLWH and controls except for the lack of improvement in dyslipidaemia in PLWH., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Obesity incidence is increasing among people with HIV. Doravirine is a recommended first-line antiretroviral drug in many countries with no data from people with obesity. This study investigates the exposure of doravirine 100 mg standard dose in obese versus normal weight patients using clinical data combined with physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling. Results from both approaches showed an elevated doravirine exposure during obesity, yet within the safety range of doravirine with no need for dose modification., (Copyright © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The implications of bariatric surgery (BS) on virologic and metabolic outcomes in people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PWH) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are unknown., Methods: Here, we report a retrospective analysis up to 18 months post-BS in PWH from the AIDS Therapy evaluation in The Netherlands (ATHENA) cohort with data from all dutch HIV treating Centers. Primary end points were a confirmed virologic failure (2 consecutive HIV-RNA measurements >200 copies/mL) and the percentage of patients who achieved >20% total body weight loss up to 18 months post-BS. Switches from baseline ART and trough plasma concentrations of antiretrovirals were also reported post-BS. Metabolic parameters and medication usage were compared pre- and post-BS., Results: Fifty-one patients were included. One case of confirmed virologic failure and 3 cases with viral blips were detected in this cohort up to 18 months post-BS. Eighty-five percent of patients achieved >20% total body weight loss at 18 months post-BS, with a mean difference from baseline (95% confidence interval) of -33.5% (-37.7% to -29.3%). Trough plasma concentrations of measured antiretroviral agents were all above minimum effective concentrations, except for 1 sample of darunavir. Lipid profiles, but not serum creatinine and blood pressure, improved significantly (P < .01) post-BS. Total medications and obesity-related comedications declined from 203 to 103 and from 62 to 25, respectively, at 18 months post-BS., Conclusions: BS was an effective intervention for weight loss and lipid control in PWH using ART in this cohort with no clear link to poor virologic outcomes., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest . The following authors report grants and/or honoraria: D. M. B. and A. C. from Janssen, MSD, AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMS), Gilead, and ViiV Healthcare; C. R. from AIDSfonds, ZonMW, Dutch Federation Medical Specialists, Health Holland, Merck, Janssen-Cilag, Gilead, and ViiV Healthcare. C. R. also reports payment or honoraria for speaking engagements or presentations from Virology Education, Academic Medical Education (AME), and ViiV; travel support from ViiV and Gilead; and participation on data and safety monitoring boards (DSMBs) or advisory boards for The European treatment network of HIV, hepatitis and global infectious diseases (neat-id), ViiV, and Gilead. A. C. also reports participation on an advisory board for Gilead (paid to institution). J. G. dH. reports consulting fees from ViiV and Gilead. M. vd. V. reports grants or contracts and consulting fees from ViiV, Gilead, and MSD (paid to institution). O. R. reports board membership and role of treasurer of the Dutch Society of HIV Treating Physicians. F. W. reports consulting fees from ViiV Healthcare for advisory board participation and unpaid participation on the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) for an IAVI HIV vaccine study. All remaining authors: No reported conflicts of interest. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background and Objectives: Obesity trends and metabolic dysregulation are rising in people living with HIV using antiretrovirals (ARVs). Underlying causes and preventive strategies are being investigated. Two glucagon like-peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonists, liraglutide and semaglutide, were formerly approved as glucose-lowering drugs and have been recently approved for long-term weight loss in people with obesity. Due to the lack of therapeutic guidelines or clinical trials in people with HIV, we discuss the potential benefits, safety aspects and pharmacological considerations of prescribing liraglutide and semaglutide in people with HIV., Results: Clinical experience is limited to two clinical cases of diabetic people with HIV using liraglutide after which a successful weight loss and glycaemic control were observed. None of the adverse events associated with liraglutide and semaglutide usage indicate an additional risk for people with HIV. Extra caution showed be warranted when initiating GLP-1 agonist therapy in people with HIV taking protease inhibitors who have pre-existing risk factors for heart rate variability to reduce the incidence of RP interval prolongation. GLP-1 agonists are metabolized by endopeptidases, and thus do not generate major drug-drug interactions with most drugs, including ARVs. GLP-s agonists are known to inhibit gastric acid secretion, which warrants caution and close monitoring when combined with atazanavir and oral rilpivirine, two ARVs that require low gastric pH for an optimal absorption., Conclusion: Theoretical considerations and a few available clinical observations support semaglutide and liraglutide prescription in people with HIV, with, thus far, no indications of concern regarding efficacy, safety or pharmacological interactions with ARVs., (© 2023 British HIV Association.)

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has led public health authorities to face the unprecedented challenge of planning a global vaccination campaign, which for most protocols entails the administration of two doses, separated by a bounded but flexible time interval. The partial immunity already offered by the first dose and the high levels of uncertainty in the vaccine supplies have been characteristic of most of the vaccination campaigns implemented worldwide and made the planning of such interventions extremely complex. Motivated by this compelling challenge, we propose a stochastic optimization framework for optimally scheduling a two-dose vaccination campaign in the presence of uncertain supplies, taking into account constraints on the interval between the two doses and on the capacity of the healthcare system. The proposed framework seeks to maximize the vaccination coverage, considering the different levels of immunization obtained with partial (one dose only) and complete vaccination (two doses). We cast the optimization problem as a convex second-order cone program, which can be efficiently solved through numerical techniques. We demonstrate the potential of our framework on a case study calibrated on the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy. The proposed method shows good performance when unrolled in a sliding-horizon fashion, thereby offering a powerful tool to help public health authorities calibrate the vaccination campaign, pursuing a trade-off between efficacy and the risk associated with shortages in supply., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

Our efforts as a society to combat the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are continuously challenged by the emergence of new variants. These variants can be more infectious than existing strains and many of them are also more resistant to available vaccines. The appearance of these new variants cause new surges of infections, exacerbated by infrastructural difficulties, such as shortages of medical personnel or test kits. In this work, a high-resolution computational framework for modeling the simultaneous spread of two COVID-19 variants: a widely spread base variant and a new one, is established. The computational framework consists of a detailed database of a representative U.S. town and a high-resolution agent-based model that uses the Omicron variant as the base variant and offers flexibility in the incorporation of new variants. The results suggest that the spread of new variants can be contained with highly efficacious tests and mild loss of vaccine protection. However, the aggressiveness of the ongoing Omicron variant and the current waning vaccine immunity point to an endemic phase of COVID-19, in which multiple variants will coexist and residents continue to suffer from infections., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2022 Wiley‐VCH GmbH.)

To the authors' knowledge, there is currently no literature or guidance recommendation regarding whether the dose of dolutegravir (DTG) should be increased when co-administered with darunavir/ritonavir (DRV/r) in patients with acute human immunodeficiency virus infection (AHI). This study assessed the pharmacokinetics (PK) of twice-daily (BID) DTG and once-daily (QD) DRV/r, and compared this with DTG QD without DRV/r in patients with AHI. Forty-six participants initiated antiretroviral therapy within <24 h of enrolment: DTG 50 mg BID, DRV/r 800/100 mg QD, and two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) for 4 weeks (Phase I); and DTG 50 mg QD with two NRTIs thereafter (Phase II: reference). Total DTG trough concentration (C trough ) and area under the concentration-time profile of 0-24 h (AUC 0-24h ) were predicted using a population PK model. DTG glucuronidation metabolic ratio (MR) and DTG free fraction were determined and compared per treatment phase using geometric mean ratio (GMR) and 90% confidence interval (CI). Participants had a predicted geometric mean steady-state DTG C trough of 2.83 [coefficient of variation (CV%) 30.3%] mg/L (Phase I) and 1.28 (CV% 52.4%) mg/L (Phase II), with GMR of 2.20 (90% CI 1.90-2.55). Total exposure during DTG BID increased but did not double [AUC 0-24h GMR 1.65 (90% CI 1.50-1.81) h.mg/L]. DTG glucuronidation MR increased by approximately 29% during Phase I. DTG C trough was above in-vivo EC 90 (0.32 mg/L) during both phases, except in one participant during Phase I. At Week 8, 84% of participants had viral loads ≤40 copies/mL. The drug-drug interaction between DTG (BID) and DRV/r (QD) was due to induced glucuronidation, and is not clinically relevant in patients with AHI., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Obesity is a global epidemic and people living with HIV (PLWH) are showing similar obesity trends to those in the general population. Obesity is manifested by several physiological features that can alter volume of distribution, elimination and metabolism of various medications including ART. Some drugs are increasingly prone to pharmacokinetic alteration during obesity depending on their physicochemical properties and clearance mechanism. These considerations raise concerns of hampered efficacy, development of resistance or increased toxicity of ART in PLWH. Here, we summarize available literature on the exposure and antiviral outcomes of currently available antiretroviral drugs in the context of obesity and provide a panel of recommendations for the clinical management and follow-up in this growing patient population., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Dynamic norms have recently emerged as a powerful method to encourage individuals to adopt an innovation by highlighting a growing trend in its uptake. However, there have been no concrete attempts to understand how this individual-level mechanism might shape the collective population behavior. Here, we develop a framework to examine this by encapsulating dynamic norms within a game-theoretic mathematical model for innovation diffusion. Specifically, we extend a network coordination game by incorporating a probabilistic mechanism where an individual adopts the action with growing popularity, instead of the standard best-response update rule; the probability of such an event captures the population's "sensitivity" to dynamic norms. Theoretical analysis reveals that sensitivity to dynamic norms is key to facilitating social diffusion. Small increases in sensitivity reduces the advantage of the innovation over status quo or the number of initial innovators required to unlock diffusion, while a sufficiently large sensitivity alone guarantees diffusion., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.)

The ongoing pandemic is laying bare dramatic differences in the spread of COVID-19 across seemingly similar urban environments. Identifying the urban determinants that underlie these differences is an open research question, which can contribute to more epidemiologically resilient cities, optimized testing and detection strategies, and effective immunization efforts. Here, we perform a computational analysis of COVID-19 spread in three cities of similar size in New York State (Colonie, New Rochelle, and Utica) aiming to isolate urban determinants of infections and deaths. We develop detailed digital representations of the cities and simulate COVID-19 spread using a complex agent-based model, taking into account differences in spatial layout, mobility, demographics, and occupational structure of the population. By critically comparing pandemic outcomes across the three cities under equivalent initial conditions, we provide compelling evidence in favor of the central role of hospitals. Specifically, with highly efficacious testing and detection, the number and capacity of hospitals, as well as the extent of vaccination of hospital employees are key determinants of COVID-19 spread. The modulating role of these determinants is reduced at lower efficacy of testing and detection, so that the pandemic outcome becomes equivalent across the three cities., (© 2022. The New York Academy of Medicine.)

The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID-19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near-complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be relaxed, a resurgent COVID-19 wave in winter 2021/2022 might be witnessed. In response to this risk, an additional vaccine dose, the booster shot, is being administered worldwide. A projected study with an outlook of 6 months explores the interplay between the rate at which boosters are distributed and the extent to which testing practices are implemented, using a highly granular agent-based model tuned on a medium-sized US town. Theoretical projections indicate that the administration of boosters at the rate at which the vaccine is currently administered could yield a severe resurgence of the pandemic. Projections suggest that the peak levels of mid-spring 2021 in the vaccination rate may prevent such a scenario to occur, although exact agreement between observations and projections should not be expected due to the continuously evolving nature of the pandemic. This study highlights the importance of testing, especially to detect asymptomatic individuals in the near future, as the release of the booster reaches full speed., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2022 Wiley‐VCH GmbH.)

Bariatric surgery is increasingly applied among people living with HIV to reduce obesity and the associated morbidity and mortality. In people living with HIV, sufficient antiretroviral exposure and activity should always be maintained to prevent development of resistance and disease progression. However, bariatric surgery procedures bring various gastrointestinal modifications including changes in gastric volume, and acidity, gastrointestinal emptying time, enterohepatic circulation and delayed entry of bile acids. These alterations may affect many aspects of antiretroviral pharmacokinetics. Some drug characteristics may result in subtherapeutic exposure and the potential related risk of treatment failure and resistance. Antiretrovirals that require low pH, administration of fatty meals, longer intestinal exposure, and an enterohepatic recirculation for their absorption may be most impacted by bariatric surgery procedures. Additionally, some antiretrovirals can interact with the polyvalent cations in supplements or drugs inhibiting gastric acid, thereby preventing their use as these comedications are commonly prescribed post-bariatric surgery. Predicting pharmacokinetics on the basis of drug characteristics solely proved to be challenging, therefore pharmacokinetic studies remain crucial in this population. Here, we discuss general implications of bariatric surgery on antiretroviral outcomes in people living with HIV as well as drug properties that are relevant for the choice of antiretroviral treatment in this special patient population. Additionally, we summarise studies that evaluated the pharmacokinetics of antiretrovirals post-bariatric surgery. Finally, we performed a comprehensive analysis of theoretical considerations and published pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic data to provide recommendations on antiretrovirals for people living with HIV undergoing bariatric surgery., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Objective: The goal of this study was to dynamically model next-wave scenarios to observe the impact of different lockdown measures on the infection rates (IR) and mortality for two different prototype countries, mimicking the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe., Methods: A dynamic simulation SIRD model was designed to assess the effectiveness of policy measures on four next-wave scenarios, each preceded by two different lockdowns. The four scenarios were (1) no-measures, (2) uniform measures, (3) differential measures based on isolating > 60 years of age group, and (4) differential measures with additional contact reduction measures for the 20-60 years of age group. The dynamic simulation model was prepared for two prototype European countries, Northwestern (NW) and Southern (S) country. Both prototype countries were characterized based on age composition and contact matrix., Results: The results show that the outcomes of the next-wave scenarios depend on number of infections of previous lockdowns. All scenarios reduce the incremental deaths compared with a no-measures scenario. Differential measures show lower number of deaths despite an increase of infections. Additionally, prototype S shows overall more deaths compared with prototype NW due to a higher share of older citizens., Conclusion: This study shows that differential measures are a worthwhile option for controlling the COVID-19 epidemic. This may also be the case in situations where relevant parts of the population have taken up vaccination. Additionally, the effectiveness of interventions strongly depends on the number of previously infected individuals. The results of this study may be useful when planning and forecasting the impact of non-pharmacological interventions and vaccination campaigns., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The reviewer RF declared a shared affiliation, with no collaboration, with the authors, to the handling editor at the time of the review., (Copyright © 2022 Hagens, Cordova-Pozo, Postma, Wilschut, Zino and van der Schans.)

We propose a multi-layer network model for the spread of an infectious disease that accounts for interactions within the family, between children in classes and schools, and casual contacts in the population. The proposed framework is designed to test several what-if scenarios on school openings during the vaccination campaigns, thereby assessing the safety of different policies, including testing practices in schools, diverse home-isolation policies, and targeted vaccination. We demonstrate the potentialities of our model by calibrating it on epidemiological and demographic data of the spring 2021 COVID-19 vaccination campaign in France. Specifically, we consider scenarios in which a fraction of the population is vaccinated, and we focus our analysis on the role of schools as drivers of the contagions and on the implementation of targeted intervention policies oriented to children and their families. We perform our analysis by means of a campaign of Monte Carlo simulations. Our findings suggest that transmission in schools may play a key role in the spreading of a disease. Interestingly, we show that children's testing might be an important tool to flatten the epidemic curve, in particular when combined with enacting temporary online education for classes in which infected students are detected. Finally, we test a vaccination strategy that prioritizes the members of large families and we demonstrate its good performance. We believe that our modeling framework and our findings could be of help for public health authorities for planning their current and future interventions, as well as to increase preparedness for future epidemic outbreaks., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2022.)

The emergency generated by the current COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives worldwide. There have been multiple waves across the globe that emerged as a result of new variants, due to arising from unavoidable mutations. The existing network toolbox to study epidemic spreading cannot be readily adapted to the study of multiple, coexisting strains. In this context, particularly lacking are models that could elucidate re-infection with the same strain or a different strain-phenomena that we are seeing experiencing more and more with COVID-19. Here, we establish a novel mathematical model to study the simultaneous spreading of two strains over a class of temporal networks. We build on the classical susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed model, by incorporating additional states that account for infections and re-infections with multiple strains. The temporal network is based on the activity-driven network paradigm, which has emerged as a model of choice to study dynamic processes that unfold at a time scale comparable to the network evolution. We draw analytical insight from the dynamics of the stochastic network systems through a mean-field approach, which allows for characterizing the onset of different behavioral phenotypes (non-epidemic, epidemic, and endemic). To demonstrate the practical use of the model, we examine an intermittent stay-at-home containment strategy, in which a fraction of the population is randomly required to isolate for a fixed period of time., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2022.)

Social conventions change when individuals collectively adopt an alternative over the status quo, in a process known as social diffusion. Our repeated trials of a multi-round experiment provided data that helped motivate the proposal of an agent-based model of social diffusion that incorporates inertia and trend-seeking, two behavioural mechanisms that are well documented in the social psychology literature. The former causes people to stick with their current decision, the latter creates sensitivity to population-level changes. We show that such inclusion resolves the contradictions of existing models, allowing to reproduce patterns of social diffusion which are consistent with our data and existing empirical observations at both the individual and population level. The model reveals how the emergent population-level diffusion pattern is critically shaped by the two individual-level mechanisms; trend-seeking guarantees the diffusion is explosive after the diffusion process takes off, but inertia can greatly delay the time to take-off., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

As COVID-19 vaccine is being rolled out in the US, public health authorities are gradually reopening the economy. To date, there is no consensus on a common approach among local authorities. Here, a high-resolution agent-based model is proposed to examine the interplay between the increased immunity afforded by the vaccine roll-out and the transmission risks associated with reopening efforts. The model faithfully reproduces the demographics, spatial layout, and mobility patterns of the town of New Rochelle, NY - representative of the urban fabric of the US. Model predictions warrant caution in the reopening under the current rate at which people are being vaccinated, whereby increasing access to social gatherings in leisure locations and households at a 1% daily rate can lead to a 28% increase in the fatality rate within the next three months. The vaccine roll-out plays a crucial role on the safety of reopening: doubling the current vaccination rate is predicted to be sufficient for safe, rapid reopening., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2021 Wiley‐VCH GmbH.)

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the unprecedented challenge of devising massive vaccination rollouts, toward slowing down and eventually extinguishing the diffusion of the virus. The two-dose vaccination procedure, speed requirements, and the scarcity of doses, suitable spaces, and personnel, make the optimal design of such rollouts a complex problem. Mathematical modeling, which has already proved to be determinant in the early phases of the pandemic, can again be a powerful tool to assist public health authorities in optimally planning the vaccination rollout. Here, we propose a novel epidemic model tailored to COVID-19, which includes the effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions and a concurrent two-dose vaccination campaign. Then, we leverage nonlinear model predictive control to devise optimal scheduling of first and second doses, accounting both for the healthcare needs and for the socio-economic costs associated with the epidemics. We calibrate our model to the 2021 COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Italy. Specifically, once identified the epidemic parameters from officially reported data, we numerically assess the effectiveness of the obtained optimal vaccination rollouts for the two most used vaccines. Determining the optimal vaccination strategy is nontrivial, as it depends on the efficacy and duration of the first-dose partial immunization, whereby the prioritization of first doses and the delay of second doses may be effective for vaccines with sufficiently strong first-dose immunization. Our model and optimization approach provide a flexible tool that can be adopted to help devise the current COVID-19 vaccination campaign, and increase preparedness for future epidemics., Competing Interests: The authors declare no potential conflict of interests., (© 2021 The Authors. International Journal of Robust and Nonlinear Control published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The spreading dynamics of an epidemic and the collective behavioral pattern of the population over which it spreads are deeply intertwined and the latter can critically shape the outcome of the former. Motivated by this, we design a parsimonious game-theoretic behavioral-epidemic model, in which an interplay of realistic factors shapes the coevolution of individual decision making and epidemics on a network. Although such a coevolution is deeply intertwined in the real world, existing models schematize population behavior as instantaneously reactive, thus being unable to capture human behavior in the long term. Our paradigm offers a unified framework to model and predict complex emergent phenomena, including successful collective responses, periodic oscillations, and resurgent epidemic outbreaks. The framework also allows us to provide analytical insights on the epidemic process and to assess the effectiveness of different policy interventions on ensuring a collective response that successfully eradicates the outbreak. Two case studies, inspired by real-world diseases, are presented to illustrate the potentialities of the proposed model.

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities and the general population are striving to achieve a balance between safety and normalcy. Ever changing conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools to finely describe multiple strata of society while supporting the evaluation of "what-if" scenarios. Particularly important is to assess the effectiveness of potential testing approaches and vaccination strategies. Here, an agent-based modeling platform is proposed to simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in small towns and cities, with a single-individual resolution. The platform is validated on real data from New Rochelle, NY-one of the first outbreaks registered in the United States. Supported by expert knowledge and informed by reported data, the model incorporates detailed elements of the spreading within a statistically realistic population. Along with pertinent functionality such as testing, treatment, and vaccination options, the model accounts for the burden of other illnesses with symptoms similar to COVID-19. Unique to the model is the possibility to explore different testing approaches-in hospitals or drive-through facilities-and vaccination strategies that could prioritize vulnerable groups. Decision-making by public authorities could benefit from the model, for its fine-grain resolution, open-source nature, and wide range of features., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2021 Wiley‐VCH GmbH.)

Since 2020, COVID-19 has wreaked havoc across the planet, taking the lives of more than one million people. The uncertainty and novelty of the current conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools that can support effective policy-making. In article number 2000277, Agnieszka Truszkowska, Maurizio Porfiri, and co-workers report a high-resolution, agent-based modeling platform to simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in the city of New Rochelle, NY-one of the first outbreaks registered in the United States. Image by Anna Sawulska, Agnieszka Truszkowska, Beata Truszkowska, and Maurizio Porfiri., (© 2021 Wiley‐VCH GmbH.)

To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is difficult, but it is key to reducing their social and economic consequences. Here, we introduce a meta-population model based on temporal networks, calibrated on the COVID-19 outbreak data in Italy and applied to evaluate the outcomes of these two types of NPIs. Our approach combines the advantages of granular spatial modelling of meta-population models with the ability to realistically describe social contacts via activity-driven networks. We focus on disentangling the impact of these two different types of NPIs: those aiming at reducing individuals' social activity, for instance through lockdowns, and those that enforce mobility restrictions. We provide a valuable framework to assess the effectiveness of different NPIs, varying with respect to their timing and severity. Results suggest that the effects of mobility restrictions largely depend on the possibility of implementing timely NPIs in the early phases of the outbreak, whereas activity reduction policies should be prioritized afterwards.

Motivated by the literature on opinion dynamics and evolutionary game theory, we propose a novel mathematical framework to model the intertwined coevolution of opinions and decision-making in a complex social system. In the proposed framework, the members of a social community update their opinions and revise their actions as they learn of others' opinions shared on a communication channel and observe others' actions through an influence channel; these interactions determine a two-layer network structure. We offer an application of the proposed framework by tailoring it to study the adoption of a novel social norm, demonstrating that the model is able to capture the emergence of several real-world collective phenomena such as paradigm shifts and unpopular norms. Through the establishment of analytical conditions and Monte Carlo numerical simulations, we shed light on the role of the coupling between opinion dynamics and decision-making, and of the network structure, in shaping the emergence of complex collective behavior in social systems.

Worldwide urbanization calls for a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading within urban environments. Here, we tackle this problem through an agent-based model, in which agents move in a two-dimensional physical space and interact according to proximity criteria. The planar space comprises several locations, which represent bounded regions of the urban space. Based on empirical evidence, we consider locations of different density and place them in a core-periphery structure, with higher density in the central areas and lower density in the peripheral ones. Each agent is assigned to a base location, which represents where their home is. Through analytical tools and numerical techniques, we study the formation mechanism of the network of contacts, which is characterized by the emergence of heterogeneous interaction patterns. We put forward an extensive simulation campaign to analyze the onset and evolution of contagious diseases spreading in the urban environment. Interestingly, we find that, in the presence of a core-periphery structure, the diffusion of the disease is not affected by the time agents spend inside their base location before leaving it, but it is influenced by their motion outside their base location: a strong tendency to return to the base location favors the spreading of the disease. A simplified one-dimensional version of the model is examined to gain analytical insight into the spreading process and support our numerical findings. Finally, we investigate the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns, supporting the intuition that vaccination in central and dense areas should be prioritized., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2020.)

Social groups such as schools of fish or flocks of birds display collective dynamics that can be modulated by group leaders, which facilitate decision-making toward a consensus state beneficial to the entire group. For instance, leaders could alert the group about attacking predators or the presence of food sources. Motivated by biological insight on social groups, we examine a stochastic leader-follower consensus problem where information sharing among agents is affected by perceptual constraints and each individual has a different tendency to form social connections. Leveraging tools from stochastic stability and eigenvalue perturbation theories, we study the consensus protocol in a mean-square sense, offering necessary-and-sufficient conditions for asymptotic stability and closed-form estimates of the convergence rate. Surprisingly, the prediction of our minimalistic model share similarities with observed traits of animal and human groups. Our analysis anticipates the counterintuitive result that heterogeneity can be beneficial to group decision-making by improving the convergence rate of the consensus protocol. This observation finds support in theoretical and empirical studies on social insects such as spider or honeybee colonies, as well as human teams, where inter-individual variability enhances the group performance., Competing Interests: We declare we have no competing interests., (© 2020 The Author(s).)

Many complex systems are characterized by time-varying patterns of interactions. These interactions comprise strong ties, driven by dyadic relationships, and weak ties, based on node-specific attributes. The interplay between strong and weak ties plays an important role on dynamical processes that could unfold on complex systems. However, seldom do we have access to precise information about the time-varying topology of interaction patterns. A particularly elusive question is to distinguish strong from weak ties, on the basis of the sole node dynamics. Building upon analytical results, we propose a statistically-principled algorithm to reconstruct the backbone of strong ties from data of a spreading process, consisting of the time series of individuals' states. Our method is numerically validated over a range of synthetic datasets, encapsulating salient features of real-world systems. Motivated by compelling evidence, we propose the integration of our algorithm in a targeted immunization strategy that prioritizes influential nodes in the inferred backbone. Through Monte Carlo simulations on synthetic networks and a real-world case study, we demonstrate the viability of our approach.

Understanding the dynamics of social networks is the objective of interdisciplinary research ranging from animal collective behaviour to epidemiology, political science and marketing. Social influence is key to comprehending emergent group behaviour, but we know little about how inter-individual relationships emerge in the first place. We conducted an experiment where participants repeatedly performed a cognitive test in a small group. In each round, they were allowed to change their answers upon seeing the current answers of other members and their past performance in selecting correct answers. Rather than following a simple majority rule, participants granularly processed the performance of others in deciding how to change their answers. Toward a network model of the experiment, we associated a directed link of a time-varying network with every change in a participant's answer that mirrored the answer of another group member. The rate of growth of the network was not constant in time, whereby links were found to emerge faster as time progressed. Further, repeated interactions reinforced relationships between individuals' performance and their network centrality. Our results provide empirical evidence that inter-individual relationships spontaneously emerge in an adaptive way, where good performers rise as group leaders over time.

Activity-driven networks are a powerful paradigm to study epidemic spreading over time-varying networks. Despite significant advances, most of the current understanding relies on discrete-time computer simulations, in which each node is assigned an activity potential from a continuous distribution. Here, we establish a continuous-time discrete-distribution framework toward an analytical treatment of the epidemic spreading, from its onset to the endemic equilibrium. In the thermodynamic limit, we derive a nonlinear dynamical system to accurately model the epidemic spreading and leverage techniques from the fields of differential inclusions and adaptive estimation to inform short- and long-term predictions. We demonstrate our framework through the analysis of two real-world case studies, exemplifying different physical phenomena and time scales.