Xia D, Bai W, Wang Q, Chung JW, Adhoute X, Kloeckner R, Zhang H, Zeng Y, Sripongpun P, Nie C, Kim SU, Huang M, Hu W, Ding X, Yin G, Li H, Zhao H, Bronowicki JP, Li J, Li J, Zhu X, Wu J, Zhang C, Gong W, Li Z, Lin Z, Xu T, Yin T, Anty R, Song J, Shi H, Shao G, Ren W, Zhang Y, Yang S, Zheng Y, Xu J, Wang W, Zhu X, Fu Y, Liu C, Kaewdech A, Ding R, Zheng J, Liu S, Yu H, Zheng L, You N, Fan W, Zhang S, Feng L, Wang G, Zhang P, Li X, Chen J, Zhang F, Shao W, Zhou W, Zeng H, Cao G, Huang W, Jiang W, Zhang W, Li L, Feng A, Wang E, Wang Z, Han D, Lv Y, Sun J, Ren B, Xia L, Li X, Yuan J, Wang Z, Luo B, Li K, Guo W, Yin Z, Zhao Y, Xia J, Fan D, Wu K, Bettinger D, Vogel A, and Han G
Background & Aims: Current prognostic models for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) are not extensively validated and widely accepted. We aimed to develop and validate a continuous model incorporating tumor burden and biology for individual survival prediction and risk stratification., Methods: Overall, 4,377 treatment-naive candidates for whom TACE was recommended, from 39 centers in five countries, were enrolled and divided into training, internal validation, and two external validation datasets. The novel model was developed using a Cox multivariable regression analysis and compared with our original 6-and-12 model (the largest tumor size [ts, centimetres] + tumor number [tn]) and other available models in terms of predictive accuracy., Results: The proposed model, named the '6-and-12 model 2.0', was generated as 'ts + tn + 1.5×log 10 alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)', showed good discrimination (C-index 0.674) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p = 0.147), and outperformed current existing models. An easy-to-use stratification was proposed according to the different AFP levels (≤100, 100-400, 400-2,000, 2,000-10,000, 10,000-40,000, and >40,000 ng/ml) along with the corresponding tumor burden cutoffs (8/14, 7/13, 6/12, 5/11, 4/10, and any tumor burden); that is, if the AFP level was 400-2,000 ng/ml, the stratification should be low-(≤6)/intermediate-(6-12)/high-risk (>12) strata. Hence, it could divide the patients into three distinct risk categories with a median overall survival of 45.0 (95% CI, 40.1-49.9), 30.0 (95% CI, 26.1-33.9), and 15.4 (95% CI, 13.4-17.4) months ( p <0.001) from low-risk to high-risk strata, respectively. These findings were confirmed in validation and subgroup analyses., Conclusions: The 6-and-12 model 2.0 significantly improved individual outcome predictions and better stratified the candidates recommended for TACE; thus, this model could be used in both clinical practice and trial design., Impact and Implications: In this international multicentre study, we developed and internally and externally validated a novel outcome prediction model for candidates with HCC who would be ideal for TACE. The model, called the 6-and-12 model 2.0, was based on 4,377 patients from 39 centers in five countries. The model offers individualized outcome prediction, outperforming the original 6-and-12 model score and other existing metrics across all datasets and subsets. Based on different levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and corresponding cut-offs of tumor burden, patients could be stratified into three risk strata with significantly different survival prognoses, which could provide a referential framework to control study heterogeneity and define the target population in future trial designs., Competing Interests: AV: consulting fees (AstraZeneca, Amgen, BeiGene, Böhringer Mannheim, BMS, BTG, Daichi-Sankyo, EISAI, Incyte, Ipsen, MSD, PierreFabre, Roche, Servier, Sirtex, Tahio, and Terumo); payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events [AstraZeneca, Amgen, BeiGene, Böhringer Mannheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, BTG, Daichi-Sankyo, EISAI, GSK, Imaging Equipment Ltd (AAA), Incyte, Ipsen, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicines; MSD, PierreFabre, Roche, Servier, Sirtex, Tahio, and Terumo]; support for attending meetings and/or travel (Roche, MSD, and Astellas); participation on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board (AstraZeneca, Amgen, BeiGene, Böhringer Mannheim, BMS, BTG, Daichi-Sankyo, EISAI, Incyte, Ipsen, MSD, PierreFabre, Roche, Servier, Sirtex, Tahio, and Terumo). RK: grants or contracts from any entity (German Federal Ministry of Research & Education and DFG – German Research Foundation); consulting fees (Boston Scientific, Bristol Myers Squibb, Guerbet, Roche, and Sirtex); payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events (Astra Zeneca, BTG, Eisai, Guerbet, Ipsen, Roche, Siemens, Sirtex, MSD Sharp & Dohme); participation on a data safety monitoring board or advisory board (ABC HCC Trial); leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee or advocacy group, paid or unpaid (European Society of Radiology, Chair of the Audit and Standards Subcommittee – unpaid; and Eurosafe Imaging, Steering Committee - unpaid); JWC: grants or contracts from any entity (educational grant from Guerbet); DB: grants or contracts from any entity (German Research Foundation and Dr Rolf M. Schwiete Stiftung); payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events (Falk Foundation and Gore); support for attending meetings and/or travel (Gilead Science and Abbvie); X.A.: grants or contracts from any entity (Servier and Ipsen); consulting fees (Bayer and Ipsen); payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events (Gilead, Servier); support for attending meetings and/or travel (Roche and Gilead); the other authors have nothing to disclose. Please refer to the accompanying ICMJE disclosure forms for further details., (© 2024 The Authors.)