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Grassland landscapes are important ecosystems in East Africa, providing habitat and grazing grounds for wildlife and livestock and supporting pastoralism, an essential part of the agricultural sector. Since future grassland availability directly affects the future mobility needs of pastoralists and wildlife, we aim to model changes in the distribution of key grassland species under climate change. Here we combine a global and regional climate model with a machine learning-based species distribution model to understand the impact of regional climate change on different key grass species. The application of a dynamical downscaling step allows us to capture the fine-scale effects of the region's complex climate, its variability and future changes. We show that the co-occurrence of the analysed grass species is reduced in large parts of eastern Africa, and particularly in the Turkana region, under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario for the last 30 years of the 21 st century. Our results suggest that future climate change will alter the natural resource base, with potentially negative impacts on pastoralism and wildlife in East Africa., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2024.)

Recent temperature extremes have shattered previously observed records, reaching intensities that were inconceivable before the events. Could the possibility of an event with such unprecedented intensity as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave have been foreseen, based on climate model information available before the event? Could the scientific community have quantified its potential intensity based on the current generation of climate models? Here, we demonstrate how an ensemble boosting approach can be used to generate physically plausible storylines of a heatwave hotter than observed in the Pacific Northwest. We also show that heatwaves of much greater intensities than ever observed are possible in other locations like the Greater Chicago and Paris regions. In order to establish confidence in storylines of 'black swan'-type events, different lines of evidence need to be combined along with process understanding to make this information robust and actionable for stakeholders., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Forests can store large amounts of carbon and provide essential ecosystem services. Massive tree planting is thus sometimes portrayed as a panacea to mitigate climate change and related impacts. Recent controversies about the potential benefits and drawbacks of forestation have centered on the carbon storage potential of forests and the local or global thermodynamic impacts. Here we discuss how global-scale forestation and deforestation change the Earth's energy balance, thereby affect the global atmospheric circulation and even have profound effects on the ocean circulation. We perform multicentury coupled climate model simulations in which preindustrial vegetation cover is either completely forested or deforested and carbon dioxide mixing ratio is kept constant. We show that global-scale forestation leads to a weakening and poleward shift of the Northern mid-latitude circulation, slows-down the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and affects the strength of the Hadley cell, whereas deforestation leads to reversed changes. Consequently, both land surface changes substantially affect regional precipitation, temperature, clouds, and surface wind patterns across the globe. The design process of large-scale forestation projects thus needs to take into account global circulation adjustments and their influence on remote climate., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts-land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

The hydrogeological system of an ecologically sensitive alpine floodplain in the Valle di Blenio, Switzerland, was investigated using hydrochemical and 3H-3He dating methods. Water samples from six wells and from different surface locations were analyzed. The analysis of the concentrations of major ions in conjunction with age determination by the 3H-3He-method allowed the main hydrological properties of the system to be consistently characterized. Two geochemically distinct water zones can be distinguished: Ca-SO4-dominated water from the main river and Ca-HCO3-dominated floodplain water. The floodplain water component characterizes the whole floodplain including the surficial hillslope drainage system. Within the ground water samples, two spatially and temporally different types of water can be determined. A younger (age < 1.5 years), less mineralized water is found in the upper part of the aquifer during the summer season. The underlying aquifer zone contains older and more highly mineralized water. However, the general hydrochemical characterization of both types of ground water is similar. In winter, the water ages increase with decreasing ground water levels. Because precipitation is stored temporarily in the snow cover, the contribution of the younger near-surface ground water decreases, resulting in higher apparent water ages and higher mineralization in the upper zone of the aquifer. Water exchange between the main river and the ground water system is limited to ground water exfiltration from the shallow aquifer zone, whereas the hydrochemical separation of the deeper aquifer zone indicates the isolation of the deeper ground water from the main river.

Noble-gas concentrations in ground water have been used as a proxy for past air temperatures, but the accuracy of this approach has been limited by the existence of a temperature-independent component of the noble gases in ground water, termed 'excess air' whose origin and composition is poorly understood. In particular, the evidence from noble gases in a Brazilian aquifer for a cooling of more than 5 C in tropical America during the Last Glacial Maximum has been called into question. Here we propose a model for dissolved gases in ground water, which describes the formation of excess air by equilibration of ground water with entrapped air in quasi-saturated soils. Our model predicts previously unexplained noble-gas data sets, including the concentration of atmospheric helium, and yields consistent results for the non-atmospheric helium isotopes that are used for dating ground water. Using this model of excess air, we re-evaluate the use of noble gases from ground water for reconstructing past temperatures. Our results corroborate the inferred cooling in Brazil during the Last Glacial Maximum, and indicate that even larger cooling took place at mid-latitudes.

A multitracer study of a small aquifer in northern Switzerland indicates that the atmosphere in central Europe cooled by at least 5 degreesC during the last glacial period. The relation between oxygen isotope ratios (delta18O) and recharge temperatures reconstructed for this period is similar to the present-day one if a shift in the delta18O value of the oceans during the ice age is taken into account. This similarity suggests that the present-day delta18O-temperature relation can be used to reconstruct paleoclimate conditions in northern Switzerland. A gap in calculated groundwater age between about 17,000 and 25,000 years before the present indicates that during the last glacial maximum, local groundwater recharge was prevented by overlying glaciers.