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Mendelian randomization (MR) is a flexible analytical tool that has been widely applied to strengthen causal inference in observational epidemiology and is now gaining attention in many areas including periodontal research. The interpretation of results drawn from MR is based on a series of assumptions, which can be unrealistic or difficult to meet faithfully in some settings. However, we argue that with care, this does not necessarily prevent valuable deployment of the approach. We argue that clarity of presentation as well as careful assessment of specific analytical conditions is a fundamental part of all MR analyses. To that end, awareness of its limitations should also guide the design of MR investigations and the presentation of results rather than rule out its use altogether. Notably, considerations similar to those known to be important in conventional epidemiological settings apply to MR. While MR studies are valuable in their contrast to other study limitations, the application of this technique must be carefully cross-examined. Specific considerations include possible confounders, recruitment strategy and phenotypic measurement and differential analysis properties across studies. In the case of periodontal research, current MR applications are limited by the available evidence base for genetic contributions to periodontitis; however, this sets a specific scene for the strategic use of MR and shines light on a need for greater research emphasis on the genetics of the condition and intermediaries. This article provides a perspective on the uses and inherent limitations of MR studies and the importance of adhering to basic epidemiological principles when designing them., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Identifying genetic risk factors for highly heterogeneous disorders like epilepsy remains challenging. Here, we present the largest whole-exome sequencing study of epilepsy to date, with >54,000 human exomes, comprising 20,979 deeply phenotyped patients from multiple genetic ancestry groups with diverse epilepsy subtypes and 33,444 controls, to investigate rare variants that confer disease risk. These analyses implicate seven individual genes, three gene sets, and four copy number variants at exome-wide significance. Genes encoding ion channels show strong association with multiple epilepsy subtypes, including epileptic encephalopathies, generalized and focal epilepsies, while most other gene discoveries are subtype-specific, highlighting distinct genetic contributions to different epilepsies. Combining results from rare single nucleotide/short indel-, copy number-, and common variants, we offer an expanded view of the genetic architecture of epilepsy, with growing evidence of convergence among different genetic risk loci on the same genes. Top candidate genes are enriched for roles in synaptic transmission and neuronal excitability, particularly postnatally and in the neocortex. We also identify shared rare variant risk between epilepsy and other neurodevelopmental disorders. Our data can be accessed via an interactive browser, hopefully facilitating diagnostic efforts and accelerating the development of follow-up studies., Competing Interests: Competing Interests B.M.N is a member of the scientific advisory board at Deep Genomics and Neumora. No other authors have competing interests to declare

Psychotic disorder is associated with altered levels of various inflammatory markers in blood, but existing studies have typically focused on a few selected biomarkers, have not examined specific symptom domains notably negative symptoms, and are based on individuals with established/chronic illness. Based on data from young people aged 24 years from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a UK birth cohort, we have examined the associations of 67 plasma immune/inflammatory proteins assayed using the Olink Target 96 Inflammation panel with psychotic disorder, positive (any psychotic experiences and definite psychotic experiences) and negative symptoms, using linear models with empirical Bayes estimation. The analyses included between 2317 and 2854 individuals. After adjustment for age, sex, body mass index and smoking and correction for multiple testing, positive symptoms and psychotic disorder were consistently associated with upregulation of CDCP1 and IL-6, and psychotic disorder was additionally associated with upregulation of MMP-10. Negative symptoms were associated with upregulation of CDCP1 and TRAIL. CDCP1 and MMP-10 are novel markers of psychosis identified in this study, and are involved in immune regulation, immune cell activation/migration, blood-brain barrier disruption, and extracellular matrix abnormalities. Our findings highlight psychosis symptom domains have overlapping and distinct immune associations, and support a role of inflammation and immune dysfunction in the pathogenesis of psychosis., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Pubertal timing is heritable, varies between individuals, and has implications for life-course health. There are many different indicators of pubertal timing, and how they relate to each other is unclear. Our aim was to quantitatively compare nine indicators of pubertal timing., Methods: We used data from questionnaires and height, weight, and bone measurements from ages 7-17 y in a population-based cohort of 4267 females and 4251 males to compare nine growth and development-based indicators of pubertal timing. We summarise age of each indicator, their phenotypic and genetic correlations, and how they relate to established genetic risk score (GRS) for puberty timing, and phenotypic childhood body composition measures., Results: We show that pubic hair in males (mean: 12.6 y) and breasts in females (11.5 y) are early indicators of puberty, and voice breaking (14.2 y) and menarche (12.7 y) are late indicators however, there is substantial variation between individuals in pubertal age. All indicators show evidence of positive phenotypic intercorrelations (e.g., r = 0.49: male genitalia and pubic hair ages), and positive genetic intercorrelations. An age at menarche GRS positively associates with all other pubertal age indicators (e.g., difference in female age at peak height velocity per SD higher GRS: 0.24 y, 95%CI: 0.21 to 0.26), as does an age at voice breaking GRS (e.g., difference in age at male axillary hair: 0.11 y, 0.07 to 0.15). Higher childhood fat mass and lean mass associated with earlier puberty timing., Conclusions: Our findings provide insights into the measurements of the timing of pubertal growth and development and illustrate value of various pubertal timing indicators in life-course research., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Studies of longitudinal trends of depressive symptoms in young people could provide insight into aetiologic mechanism, heterogeneity and origin of common cardiometabolic comorbidities for depression. Depression is associated with immunological and metabolic alterations, but immunometabolic characteristics of developmental trajectories of depressive symptoms remain unclear. Using depressive symptoms scores measured on 10 occasions between ages 10 and 25 years in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n=7302), we identified four distinct trajectories: low-stable (70% of the sample), adolescent-limited (13%), adulthood-onset (10%) and adolescent-persistent (7%). We examined associations of these trajectories with: i) anthropometric, cardiometabolic and psychiatric phenotypes using multivariable regression (n=1709-3410); ii) 67 blood immunological proteins and 57 metabolomic features using empirical Bayes moderated linear models (n=2059 and n=2240 respectively); and iii) 28 blood cell counts and biochemical measures using multivariable regression (n=2256). Relative to the low-stable group, risk of depression and anxiety in adulthood was higher for all other groups, especially in the adolescent-persistent (OR depression =22.80, 95% CI 15.25-34.37; OR GAD =19.32, 95% CI 12.86-29.22) and adulthood-onset (OR depression =7.68, 95% CI 5.31-11.17; OR GAD =5.39, 95% CI 3.65-7.94) groups. The three depression-related trajectories vary in their immunometabolic profile, with evidence of little or no alterations in the adolescent-limited group. The adulthood-onset group shows widespread classical immunometabolic changes (e.g., increased immune cell counts and insulin resistance), while the adolescent-persistent group is characterised by higher BMI both in childhood and adulthood with few other immunometabolic changes. These findings point to distinct mechanisms and intervention opportunities for adverse cardiometabolic profile in different groups of young people with depression., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest None

The major anxiety disorders (ANX; including generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder, and phobias) are highly prevalent, often onset early, persist throughout life, and cause substantial global disability. Although distinct in their clinical presentations, they likely represent differential expressions of a dysregulated threat-response system. Here we present a genome-wide association meta-analysis comprising 122,341 European ancestry ANX cases and 729,881 controls. We identified 58 independent genome-wide significant ANX risk variants and 66 genes with robust biological support. In an independent sample of 1,175,012 self-report ANX cases and 1,956,379 controls, 51 of the 58 associated variants were replicated. As predicted by twin studies, we found substantial genetic correlation between ANX and depression, neuroticism, and other internalizing phenotypes. Follow-up analyses demonstrated enrichment in all major brain regions and highlighted GABAergic signaling as one potential mechanism underlying ANX genetic risk. These results advance our understanding of the genetic architecture of ANX and prioritize genes for functional follow-up studies., Competing Interests: Per Hoffmann receives Salary from the Life & Brain GmbH, Bonn, Germany. James L. Kennedy is a member of the Scientific Advisory Board for Myriad Neuroscience Inc. Ian B. Hickie was an inaugural Commissioner on Australia’s National Mental Health Commission (2012-18). He is the Co-Director, Health and Policy at the Brain and Mind Centre (BMC) University of Sydney. The BMC operates an early-intervention youth services at Camperdown under contract to headspace. He is the Chief Scientific Advisor to, and a 5% equity shareholder in, InnoWell Pty Ltd. InnoWell was formed by the University of Sydney (45% equity) and PwC (Australia; 45% equity) to deliver the $30 M Australian Government-funded Project Synergy (2017-20; a three-year program for the transformation of mental health services) and to lead transformation of mental health services internationally through the use of innovative technologies. Andrew M. Mcintosh has received research support from Eli Lilly, Janssen, and The Sackler Trust. AMM has also received speaker fees from Illumina and Janssen. Murray B. Stein has in the past 3 years received consulting income from Acadia Pharmaceuticals, Aptinyx, atai Life Sciences, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bionomics, BioXcel Therapeutics, Clexio, Eisai, EmpowerPharm, Engrail Therapeutics, Janssen, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, and Roche/Genentech. Dr. Stein has stock options in Oxeia Biopharmaceuticals and EpiVario. He is paid for his editorial work on Depression and Anxiety (Editor-in-Chief), Biological Psychiatry (Deputy Editor), and UpToDate (Co-Editor-in-Chief for Psychiatry). He has also received research support from NIH, Department of Veterans Affairs, and the Department of Defense. He is on the scientific advisory board for the Brain and Behavior Research Foundation and the Anxiety and Depression Association of America. Joel Gelernter is named as an inventor on PCT patent application #15/878,640 entitled: “Genotype-guided dosing of opioid agonists,” filed January 24, 2018 and issued on January 26, 2021 as U.S. Patent No. 10,900,082; and is paid for editorial work for the journal “Complex Psychiatry.” Iiris Hovatta received speaker’s honoraria from Lundbeck. Ole A. Andreassen received speaker’s honorarium from Lundbeck and Sunovion, consultant for Cortechs.ai and Precision Health AS. Katharina Domschke has been a member of the Steering Committee Neurosciences, Janssen, Inc. until 2022 and is currently a member of the Board of the German National Society of Psychiatry (DGPPN) and the Neurotorium Editorial Board of the Lundbeck Foundation. Jordan W. Smoller is a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of Sensorium Therapeutics (with equity) and has received an honorarium for an internal seminar Tempus Labs. He is PI of a collaborative study of the genetics of depression and bipolar disorder sponsored by 23andMe for which 23andMe provides analysis time as in-kind support but no payments. Eduard Maron has received research support and has also received speaker fees from Lundbeck. Hans J. Grabe has received travel grants and speakers honoraria from Indorsia, Neuraxpharm, Servier and Janssen Cilag. Henrik Larsson has served as a speaker for Evolan Pharma, Medici and Shire/Takeda and has received research grants from Shire/Takeda; all outside the submitted work. Gerome Breen is an advisory board member for Compass Pathways. Jürgen Deckert is a member of the board of the German Society of Biological Psychiatry and is on the scientific advisory boards of non-profit organizations and foundations. Volker Arolt worked as an advisor for Sanofi-Adventis Germany. Zach Fuller and Xin Wang are employees of 23andMe and hold stock or stock options in 23andMe. All other authors have no competing interests to declare.

Pubertal timing varies considerably and is associated with later health outcomes. We performed multi-ancestry genetic analyses on ~800,000 women, identifying 1,080 signals for age at menarche. Collectively, these explained 11% of trait variance in an independent sample. Women at the top and bottom 1% of polygenic risk exhibited ~11 and ~14-fold higher risks of delayed and precocious puberty, respectively. We identified several genes harboring rare loss-of-function variants in ~200,000 women, including variants in ZNF483, which abolished the impact of polygenic risk. Variant-to-gene mapping approaches and mouse gonadotropin-releasing hormone neuron RNA sequencing implicated 665 genes, including an uncharacterized G-protein-coupled receptor, GPR83, which amplified the signaling of MC3R, a key nutritional sensor. Shared signals with menopause timing at genes involved in DNA damage response suggest that the ovarian reserve might signal centrally to trigger puberty. We also highlight body size-dependent and independent mechanisms that potentially link reproductive timing to later life disease., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Metabolite abundance is a dynamic trait that varies in response to environmental stimuli and phenotypic traits, such as food consumption and body mass index (BMI, kg/m 2 )., Objectives: In this study, we used the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity (NEO) study data to identify observational and causal associations between BMI and metabolite response to a liquid meal., Methods: A liquid meal challenge was performed, and Nightingale Health metabolite profiles were collected in 5744 NEO participants. Observational and one-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis were conducted to estimate the effect of BMI on metabolites (n = 229) in the fasting, postprandial, and response (or change in abundance) states., Results: We observed 473 associations with BMI (175 fasting, 188 postprandial, and 110 response) in observational analyses. In MR analyses, we observed 20 metabolite traits (5 fasting, 12 postprandial, and 3 response) to be associated with BMI. MR associations included the glucogenic amino acid alanine, which was inversely associated with BMI in the response state (β: -0.081; SE: 0.023; P = 5.91 × 10 -4 ), suggesting that as alanine increased in postprandial abundance, that increase was attenuated with increasing BMI., Conclusions: Overall, this study showed that MR estimates were strongly correlated with observational effect estimates, suggesting that the broad associations seen between BMI and metabolite variation has a causal underpinning. Specific effects in previously unassessed postprandial and response states are detected, and these may likely mark novel life course risk exposures driven by regular nutrition., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Genome-wide association analyses using high-throughput metabolomics platforms have led to novel insights into the biology of human metabolism 1-7 . This detailed knowledge of the genetic determinants of systemic metabolism has been pivotal for uncovering how genetic pathways influence biological mechanisms and complex diseases 8-11 . Here we present a genome-wide association study for 233 circulating metabolic traits quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in up to 136,016 participants from 33 cohorts. We identify more than 400 independent loci and assign probable causal genes at two-thirds of these using manual curation of plausible biological candidates. We highlight the importance of sample and participant characteristics that can have significant effects on genetic associations. We use detailed metabolic profiling of lipoprotein- and lipid-associated variants to better characterize how known lipid loci and novel loci affect lipoprotein metabolism at a granular level. We demonstrate the translational utility of comprehensively phenotyped molecular data, characterizing the metabolic associations of intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy. Finally, we observe substantial genetic pleiotropy for multiple metabolic pathways and illustrate the importance of careful instrument selection in Mendelian randomization analysis, revealing a putative causal relationship between acetone and hypertension. Our publicly available results provide a foundational resource for the community to examine the role of metabolism across diverse diseases., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: 'Benign ethnic neutropenia' (BEN) is a heritable condition characterized by lower neutrophil counts, predominantly observed in individuals of African ancestry, and the genetic basis of BEN remains a subject of extensive research. In this study, we aimed to dissect the genetic architecture underlying neutrophil count variation through a linear-mixed model genome-wide association study (GWAS) in a population of African ancestry (N = 5976). Malaria caused by P. falciparum imposes a tremendous public health burden on people living in sub-Saharan Africa. Individuals living in malaria endemic regions often have a reduced circulating neutrophil count due to BEN, raising the possibility that reduced neutrophil counts modulate severity of malaria in susceptible populations. As a follow-up, we tested this hypothesis by conducting a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of neutrophil counts on severe malaria (MalariaGEN, N = 17,056)., Results: We carried out a GWAS of neutrophil count in individuals associated to an African continental ancestry group within UK Biobank, identifying 73 loci (r 2  = 0.1) and 10 index SNPs (GCTA-COJO loci) associated with neutrophil count, including previously unknown rare loci regulating neutrophil count in a non-European population. BOLT-LMM was reliable when conducted in a non-European population, and additional covariates added to the model did not largely alter the results of the top loci or index SNPs. The two-sample bi-directional MR analysis between neutrophil count and severe malaria showed the greatest evidence for an effect between neutrophil count and severe anaemia, although the confidence intervals crossed the null., Conclusion: Our GWAS of neutrophil count revealed unique loci present in individuals of African ancestry. We note that a small sample-size reduced our power to identify variants with low allele frequencies and/or low effect sizes in our GWAS. Our work highlights the need for conducting large-scale biobank studies in Africa and for further exploring the link between neutrophils and severe malaria., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Proteomics is the identification, detection and quantification of proteins within a biological sample. The complete set of proteins expressed by an organism is known as the proteome. The availability of new high-throughput proteomic technologies, such as Olink Proteomic Proximity Extension Assay (PEA) technology has enabled detailed investigation of the circulating proteome in large-scale epidemiological studies. In particular, the Olink® Target 96 inflammatory panel allows the measurement of 92 circulating inflammatory proteins. The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a prospective population-based cohort study which recruited pregnant women in 1991-1992 and has followed these women, their partners, and their offspring ever since. In this data note, we describe the newly-released proteomic data available in ALSPAC. Ninety-two proteins were analysed in 9000 blood plasma samples using the Olink® Target 96 inflammatory panel. Samples were derived from 2968 fasted mothers (mean age 47.5; Focus on Mothers 1 (FOM1)), 3005 non-fasted offspring at age 9 (Focus@9) and 3027 fasted offspring at age 24 (Focus@24). Post sample filtering, 1834 offspring have data at both timepoints and 1119 of those have data from their mother available. We performed quality control analyses using a standardised data processing workflow ( metaboprep ) to produce a filtered dataset of 8983 samples for researchers to use in future analyses. Initial validation analyses indicate that IL-6 measured using the Olink® Target 96 inflammatory panel is highly correlated with IL-6 previously measured by clinical chemistry (Pearson's correlation = 0.77) and we are able to reproduce the reported positive correlation between body mass index (BMI) and IL-6. The pre-processing and validation analyses indicate a rich proteomic dataset to further characterise the role of inflammation in health and disease., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2024 Goulding N et al.)

Background: Type 2 diabetes is associated with higher risk of several cancer types. However, the biological intermediates driving this relationship are not fully understood. As novel interventions for treating and managing type 2 diabetes become increasingly available, whether they also disrupt the pathways leading to increased cancer risk is currently unknown. We investigated the effect of a type 2 diabetes intervention, in the form of intentional weight loss, on circulating proteins associated with cancer risk to gain insight into potential mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and adiposity with cancer development., Methods: Fasting serum samples from participants with diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) receiving the Counterweight-Plus weight-loss programme (intervention, N = 117, mean weight-loss 10 kg, 46% diabetes remission) or best-practice care by guidelines (control, N = 143, mean weight-loss 1 kg, 4% diabetes remission) were subject to proteomic analysis using the Olink Oncology-II platform (48% of participants were female; 52% male). To identify proteins which may be altered by the weight-loss intervention, the difference in protein levels between groups at baseline and 1 year was examined using linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to extend these results to evaluate cancer risk and elucidate possible biological mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and cancer development. MR analyses were conducted using independent datasets, including large cancer meta-analyses, UK Biobank, and FinnGen, to estimate potential causal relationships between proteins modified during intentional weight loss and the risk of colorectal, breast, endometrial, gallbladder, liver, and pancreatic cancers., Findings: Nine proteins were modified by the intervention: glycoprotein Nmb; furin; Wnt inhibitory factor 1; toll-like receptor 3; pancreatic prohormone; erb-b2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2; hepatocyte growth factor; endothelial cell specific molecule 1 and Ret proto-oncogene (Holm corrected P-value <0.05). Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal relationship between predicted circulating furin and glycoprotein Nmb on breast cancer risk (odds ratio (OR) = 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.67-0.99, P-value = 0.03; and OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.78-0.99, P-value = 0.04 respectively), though these results were not supported in sensitivity analyses examining violations of MR assumptions., Interpretation: Intentional weight loss among individuals with recently diagnosed diabetes may modify levels of cancer-related proteins in serum. Further evaluation of the proteins identified in this analysis could reveal molecular pathways that mediate the effect of adiposity and type 2 diabetes on cancer risk., Funding: The main sources of funding for this work were Diabetes UK, Cancer Research UK, World Cancer Research Fund, and Wellcome., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests Tom G Richardson is an employee of GlaxoSmithKline outside of the research presented in this manuscript. Mike Lean has received lecturing fees from Novo Nordisk, Roche, Merck, Sanofi Nestle and Oviva, recognises grants from Diabetes UK, NIHR, and All Sants Educational Trust, and consulting fees from Counterweight. Roy Taylor has received lecture honoraria from Eli Lilly, Nestle Health and Janssen and payment or honoraria from educational videos for European Association for the Study of Diabetes, and recognises grant support from Diabetes UK. Alex McConnachie recognises grant support from Diabetes UK. Emma Hazelwood recognises support for travel from the Harold Hyam Wingate Foundation, the European Cancer Prevention organization, and the European Association for Cancer Research, and sits on the IGES Ethical, Legal and Societal Issues committee. Naveed Sattar recognizes grant support from AstaZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novartis, and Roche Diagnostics, has received consulting fees from Abbott Laboratories, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, Hanmi Pharmaceuticals, Janssen, Marck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Roche Diagnostics, and Sanofi, and has received payment for lectures or manuscript writing from Abbott Laboratories, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, Janssen, and Novo Nordisk. Paul Welsh recognizes grant support from AstraZeneca, Roche Diagnostics, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Novartis, and payment for lectures or manuscript writing from Novo Nordisk and Raisio Nutrition. Rachel Pearlman is an executive council member of CGA-IGC. The remaining authors declare no competing interests. Where authors are identified as personnel of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization, the authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy or views of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Pubertal growth patterns correlate with future health outcomes. However, the genetic mechanisms mediating growth trajectories remain largely unknown. Here, we modeled longitudinal height growth with Super-Imposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) growth curve analysis on ~ 56,000 trans-ancestry samples with repeated height measurements from age 5 years to adulthood. We performed genetic analysis on six phenotypes representing the magnitude, timing, and intensity of the pubertal growth spurt. To investigate the lifelong impact of genetic variants associated with pubertal growth trajectories, we performed genetic correlation analyses and phenome-wide association studies in the Penn Medicine BioBank and the UK Biobank., Results: Large-scale growth modeling enables an unprecedented view of adolescent growth across contemporary and 20th-century pediatric cohorts. We identify 26 genome-wide significant loci and leverage trans-ancestry data to perform fine-mapping. Our data reveals genetic relationships between pediatric height growth and health across the life course, with different growth trajectories correlated with different outcomes. For instance, a faster tempo of pubertal growth correlates with higher bone mineral density, HOMA-IR, fasting insulin, type 2 diabetes, and lung cancer, whereas being taller at early puberty, taller across puberty, and having quicker pubertal growth were associated with higher risk for atrial fibrillation., Conclusion: We report novel genetic associations with the tempo of pubertal growth and find that genetic determinants of growth are correlated with reproductive, glycemic, respiratory, and cardiac traits in adulthood. These results aid in identifying specific growth trajectories impacting lifelong health and show that there may not be a single "optimal" pubertal growth pattern., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: High-throughput metabolomics technologies in a variety of study designs have demonstrated a consistent metabolomic signature of overweight and type 2 diabetes. However, the extent to which these metabolomic patterns can be reversed with weight loss and diabetes remission has been weakly investigated. We aimed to characterise the metabolomic consequences of a weight-loss intervention in individuals with type 2 diabetes., Methods: We analysed 574 fasted serum samples collected within an existing RCT (the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial [DiRECT]) (N=298). In the trial, participating primary care practices were randomly assigned (1:1) to provide either a weight management programme (intervention) or best-practice care by guidelines (control) treatment to individuals with type 2 diabetes. Here, metabolomics analysis was performed on samples collected at baseline and 12 months using both untargeted MS and targeted 1 H-NMR spectroscopy. Multivariable regression models were fitted to evaluate the effect of the intervention on metabolite levels., Results: Decreases in branched-chain amino acids, sugars and LDL triglycerides, and increases in sphingolipids, plasmalogens and metabolites related to fatty acid metabolism were associated with the intervention (Holm-corrected p<0.05). In individuals who lost more than 9 kg between baseline and 12 months, those who achieved diabetes remission saw greater reductions in glucose, fructose and mannose, compared with those who did not achieve remission., Conclusions/interpretation: We have characterised the metabolomic effects of an integrated weight management programme previously shown to deliver weight loss and diabetes remission. A large proportion of the metabolome appears to be modifiable. Patterns of change were largely and strikingly opposite to perturbances previously documented with the development of type 2 diabetes., Data Availability: The data used for analysis are available on a research data repository ( https://researchdata.gla.ac.uk/ ) with access given to researchers subject to appropriate data sharing agreements. Metabolite data preparation, data pre-processing, statistical analyses and figure generation were performed in R Studio v.1.0.143 using R v.4.0.2. The R code for this study has been made publicly available on GitHub at: https://github.com/lauracorbin/metabolomics&#95;of&#95;direct ., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Observational studies have suggested a protective role for eosinophils in colorectal cancer (CRC) development and implicated neutrophils, but the causal relationships remain unclear. Here, we aimed to estimate the causal effect of circulating white blood cell (WBC) counts (N = ~550 000) for basophils, eosinophils, monocytes, lymphocytes and neutrophils on CRC risk (N = 52 775 cases and 45 940 controls) using Mendelian randomisation (MR). For comparison, we also examined this relationship using individual-level data from UK Biobank (4043 incident CRC cases and 332 773 controls) in a longitudinal cohort analysis. The inverse-variance weighted (IVW) MR analysis suggested a protective effect of increased basophil count and eosinophil count on CRC risk [OR per 1-SD increase: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.78-0.99, P = .04; OR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.88-0.98, P = .01]. The protective effect of eosinophils remained [OR per 1-SD increase: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.80-0.97, P = .01] following adjustments for all other WBC subtypes, to account for genetic correlation between the traits, using multivariable MR. A protective effect of increased lymphocyte count on CRC risk was also found [OR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.76-0.93, P = 6.70e-4] following adjustment. Consistent with MR results, a protective effect for eosinophils in the cohort analysis in the fully adjusted model [RR per 1-SD increase: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, P = .02] and following adjustment for the other WBC subtypes [RR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, P = .001] was observed. Our study implicates peripheral blood immune cells, in particular eosinophils and lymphocytes, in CRC development, highlighting a need for mechanistic studies to interrogate these relationships., (© 2023 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Background: Recognizing the early signs of cancer risk is vital for informing prevention, early detection, and survival., Methods: To investigate whether changes in circulating metabolites characterize the early stages of colorectal cancer (CRC) development, we examined the associations between a genetic risk score (GRS) associated with CRC liability (72 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) and 231 circulating metabolites measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (N = 6221). Linear regression models were applied to examine the associations between genetic liability to CRC and circulating metabolites measured in the same individuals at age 8 y, 16 y, 18 y, and 25 y., Results: The GRS for CRC was associated with up to 28% of the circulating metabolites at FDR-P < 0.05 across all time points, particularly with higher fatty acids and very-low- and low-density lipoprotein subclass lipids. Two-sample reverse Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses investigating CRC liability (52,775 cases, 45,940 controls) and metabolites measured in a random subset of UK Biobank participants (N = 118,466, median age 58 y) revealed broadly consistent effect estimates with the GRS analysis. In conventional (forward) MR analyses, genetically predicted polyunsaturated fatty acid concentrations were most strongly associated with higher CRC risk., Conclusions: These analyses suggest that higher genetic liability to CRC can cause early alterations in systemic metabolism and suggest that fatty acids may play an important role in CRC development., Funding: This work was supported by the Elizabeth Blackwell Institute for Health Research, University of Bristol, the Wellcome Trust, the Medical Research Council, Diabetes UK, the University of Bristol NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, and Cancer Research UK. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. This work used the computational facilities of the Advanced Computing Research Centre, University of Bristol - http://www.bristol.ac.uk/acrc/., Competing Interests: CB, EH, JB, VT, AC, CB, DL, KB, JH, HB, SC, AC, SK, LL, LL, IC, RP, JF, NM, MG, NT, EV No competing interests declared, (© 2023, Bull, Hazelwood et al.)

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a widely used method that exploits the unique properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference in relationships between exposures and outcomes. Nonlinear MR allows estimation of the shape of these relationships. In a previous paper, the authors applied linear and nonlinear MR to estimate the effect of BMI on mortality in UK Biobank, providing evidence for a J-shaped association. However, it is now clear that there are problems with widely used nonlinear MR methods, which draws attention to the likely erroneous nature of the conclusions regarding the shapes of several explored relationships. Here, the authors explore the utility and likely biases of these nonlinear MR methods with the use of a negative control design. Although there remains good evidence for a causal effect of higher BMI increasing the risk of mortality, the pattern of this association across different levels of BMI requires further characterization., (© 2023 The Authors. Obesity published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Obesity Society.)

Thousands of proteins circulate in the bloodstream; identifying those which associate with weight and intervention-induced weight loss may help explain mechanisms of diseases associated with adiposity. We aimed to identify consistent protein signatures of weight loss across independent studies capturing changes in body mass index (BMI). We analysed proteomic data from studies implementing caloric restriction (Diabetes Remission Clinical trial) and bariatric surgery (By-Band-Sleeve), using SomaLogic and Olink Explore1536 technologies, respectively. Linear mixed models were used to estimate the effect of the interventions on circulating proteins. Twenty-three proteins were altered in a consistent direction after both bariatric surgery and caloric restriction, suggesting that these proteins are modulated by weight change, independent of intervention type. We also integrated Mendelian randomisation (MR) estimates of the effect of BMI on proteins measured by SomaLogic from a UK blood donor cohort as a third line of causal evidence. These MR estimates provided further corroborative evidence for a role of BMI in regulating the levels of six proteins including alcohol dehydrogenase-4, nogo receptor and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist protein. These results indicate the importance of triangulation in interrogating causal relationships; further study into the role of proteins modulated by weight in disease is now warranted., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Context: The melanocortin 3 receptor (MC3R) has recently emerged as a critical regulator of pubertal timing, linear growth, and the acquisition of lean mass in humans and mice. In population-based studies, heterozygous carriers of deleterious variants in MC3R report a later onset of puberty than noncarriers. However, the frequency of such variants in patients who present with clinical disorders of pubertal development is currently unknown., Objective: This work aimed to determine whether deleterious MC3R variants are more frequently found in patients clinically presenting with constitutional delay of growth and puberty (CDGP) or normosmic idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (nIHH)., Methods: We examined the sequence of MC3R in 362 adolescents with a clinical diagnosis of CDGP and 657 patients with nIHH, experimentally characterized the signaling properties of all nonsynonymous variants found and compared their frequency to that in 5774 controls from a population-based cohort. Additionally, we established the relative frequency of predicted deleterious variants in individuals with self-reported delayed vs normally timed menarche/voice-breaking in the UK Biobank cohort., Results: MC3R loss-of-function variants were infrequent but overrepresented in patients with CDGP (8/362 [2.2%]; OR = 4.17; P = .001). There was no strong evidence of overrepresentation in patients with nIHH (4/657 [0.6%]; OR = 1.15; P = .779). In 246 328 women from the UK Biobank, predicted deleterious variants were more frequently found in those self-reporting delayed (aged ≥16 years) vs normal age at menarche (OR = 1.66; P = 3.90E-07)., Conclusion: We have found evidence that functionally damaging variants in MC3R are overrepresented in individuals with CDGP but are not a common cause of this phenotype., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society.)

Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is the formation of a blood clot in a deep vein. DVT can lead to a venous thromboembolism (VTE), the combined term for DVT and pulmonary embolism, a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Despite the prevalence and associated morbidity of DVT, the underlying causes are not well understood. Our aim was to leverage publicly available genetic summary association statistics to identify causal risk factors for DVT. We conducted a Mendelian randomization phenome-wide association study (MR-PheWAS) using genetic summary association statistics for 973 exposures and DVT (6,767 cases and 330,392 controls in UK Biobank). There was evidence for a causal effect of 57 exposures on DVT risk, including previously reported risk factors (e.g. body mass index-BMI and height) and novel risk factors (e.g. hyperthyroidism and varicose veins). As the majority of identified risk factors were adiposity-related, we explored the molecular link with DVT by undertaking a two-sample MR mediation analysis of BMI-associated circulating proteins on DVT risk. Our results indicate that circulating neurogenic locus notch homolog protein 1 (NOTCH1), inhibin beta C chain (INHBC) and plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) influence DVT risk, with PAI-1 mediating the BMI-DVT relationship. Using a phenome-wide approach, we provide putative causal evidence that hyperthyroidism, varicose veins and BMI enhance the risk of DVT. Furthermore, the circulating protein PAI-1 has a causal role in DVT aetiology and is involved in mediating the BMI-DVT relationship., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Left ventricular mass (LVM) is an important predictor of cardiovascular risk. In adolescence, LVM is commonly indexed to height 2.7 , although some evidence suggests that this may not fully account for sex differences., Methods: We investigated appropriate allometric scaling of LVM to height, total lean mass, and body surface area, in a UK birth cohort of 2039 healthy adolescents (17±1 years). Allometric relationships were determined by linear regression stratified by sex, following log transformation of x and y variables [log(y)=a+b×log(x)], b is the allometric exponent., Results: Log (LVM) showed linear relationships with log(height) and log(lean mass). Biased estimates of slope resulted when the sexes were pooled. The exponents were lower than the conventional estimate of 2.7 for males (mean [95% CI]=1.66 [1.30-2.03]) and females (1.58 [1.27-1.90]). When LVM was indexed to lean mass, the exponent was 1.16 (1.05-1.26) for males and 1.07 (0.97-1.16) for females. When LVM was indexed to estimated body surface area, the exponent was 1.53 (1.40-1.66) for males and 1.34 (1.24-1.45) for females., Conclusions: Allometric exponents derived from pooled data, including men and women without adjustment for sex were biased, possibly due to sex differences in body composition. We suggest that when assessing LVM, clinicians should consider body size, body composition, sex, and age. Our observations may also have implications for the identification of young individuals with cardiac hypertrophy., Competing Interests: Disclosures None.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is increasingly used for generating estimates of the causal impact of exposures on outcomes. Evidence suggests a causal role of excess adipose tissue (adiposity) on many health outcomes. However, this body of work has not been systematically appraised. We systematically reviewed and meta-analysed results from MR studies investigating the association between adiposity and health outcomes prior to the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic (PROSPERO: CRD42018096684). We searched Medline, EMBASE, and bioRxiv up to February 2019 and obtained data on 2,214 MR analyses from 173 included articles. 29 meta-analyses were conducted using data from 34 articles (including 66 MR analyses) and results not able to be meta-analysed were narratively synthesised. Body mass index (BMI) was the predominant exposure used and was primarily associated with an increase in investigated outcomes; the largest effect in the meta-analyses was observed for the association between BMI and polycystic ovary syndrome (estimates reflect odds ratios (OR) per standard deviation change in each adiposity measure): OR = 2.55; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.22-5.33. Only colorectal cancer was investigated with two exposures in the meta-analysis: BMI (OR = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.01-1.37) and waist-hip ratio (WHR; OR = 1.48; 95% CI = 1.08-2.03). Broadly, results were consistent across the meta-analyses and narrative synthesis. Consistent with many observational studies, this work highlights the impact of adiposity across a broad spectrum of health outcomes, enabling targeted follow-up analyses. However, missing and incomplete data mean results should be interpreted with caution., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2023 Lee MA et al.)

Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Objectives: To compare associations between the Gilbert syndrome genotype in European populations, measured bilirubin concentrations, genetically predicted bilirubin using this genotype, and a wide range of health outcomes in a large cohort., Design: Cohort study including observational, genetic, and Mendelian randomisation analyses., Setting: 22 centres across England, Scotland, and Wales in UK Biobank (2006-10), with replication in a national Finnish cohort (FinnGen)., Participants: 463 060 participants in the UK Biobank were successfully genotyped for a genetic variant (rs887829) that is strongly associated with Gilbert syndrome and 438 056 participants had measured bilirubin concentrations with linked electronic health record data coded using the tenth edition of the International Classification of Diseases. Replication analyses were performed in FinnGen (n=429 209) with linked electronic health record data., Main Outcome Measures: Odds ratios for the association between serum bilirubin concentrations, rs887829-T homozygosity (the risk genotype for Gilbert syndrome), genetically predicted bilirubin using rs887829-T allele carriage alone, and a wide range of health outcomes recorded in primary and secondary care., Results: 46 189 participants in UK Biobank (about 10%) were homozygous for rs887829-T defining them as having the genotype characterising Gilbert syndrome. However, only 1701 (3%) of this group had a coded diagnosis of Gilbert syndrome. Variation at this locus explained 37.1% of all variation in measured serum bilirubin. In the observational analyses, higher bilirubin concentrations had strong inverse associations with a wide range of outcomes including overall health status, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, myocardial infarction, and cholesterol measures. These associations were not identified in people with the Gilbert genotype. We identified associations with genetically predicted bilirubin concentrations and biliary and liver pathology (eg, odds ratio for cholelithiasis 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.20); P=5.7×10 -16 ) and a novel association with pityriasis rosea (1.47 (1.27 to 1.69), P=1.28×10 -7 )., Conclusions: Only 3% of participants who are homozygous for rs887829-T have a recorded diagnosis of Gilbert syndrome. Carriers of this genotype have modest increases in the odds of developing biliary pathology and pityriasis rosea. Evidence from the analyses of genetic data suggests that bilirubin has no likely causal role in protection from cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or other key healthcare outcomes and therefore represents a poor target for therapeutic intervention for these outcomes., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/disclosure-of-interest/ and declare: no support from any organisation for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Identifying genetic determinants of reproductive success may highlight mechanisms underlying fertility and identify alleles under present-day selection. Using data in 785,604 individuals of European ancestry, we identified 43 genomic loci associated with either number of children ever born (NEB) or childlessness. These loci span diverse aspects of reproductive biology, including puberty timing, age at first birth, sex hormone regulation, endometriosis and age at menopause. Missense variants in ARHGAP27 were associated with higher NEB but shorter reproductive lifespan, suggesting a trade-off at this locus between reproductive ageing and intensity. Other genes implicated by coding variants include PIK3IP1, ZFP82 and LRP4, and our results suggest a new role for the melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) in reproductive biology. As NEB is one component of evolutionary fitness, our identified associations indicate loci under present-day natural selection. Integration with data from historical selection scans highlighted an allele in the FADS1/2 gene locus that has been under selection for thousands of years and remains so today. Collectively, our findings demonstrate that a broad range of biological mechanisms contribute to reproductive success., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

The role of the human gut microbiome in colorectal cancer (CRC) is unclear as most studies on the topic are unable to discern correlation from causation. We apply two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to estimate the causal relationship between the gut microbiome and CRC. We used summary-level data from independent genome-wide association studies to estimate the causal effect of 14 microbial traits (n = 3890 individuals) on overall CRC (55,168 cases, 65,160 controls) and site-specific CRC risk, conducting several sensitivity analyses to understand the nature of results. Initial MR analysis suggested that a higher abundance of Bifidobacterium and presence of an unclassified group of bacteria within the Bacteroidales order in the gut increased overall and site-specific CRC risk. However, sensitivity analyses suggested that instruments used to estimate relationships were likely complex and involved in many potential horizontal pleiotropic pathways, demonstrating that caution is needed when interpreting MR analyses with gut microbiome exposures. In assessing reverse causality, we did not find strong evidence that CRC causally affected these microbial traits. Whilst our study initially identified potential causal roles for two microbial traits in CRC, importantly, further exploration of these relationships highlighted that these were unlikely to reflect causality., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

ERAP2 is an aminopeptidase involved in immunological antigen presentation. Genotype data in human samples from before and after the Black Death, an epidemic due to Yersinia pestis, have marked changes in allele frequency of the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs2549794, with the T allele suggested to be deleterious during this period, while ERAP2 is also implicated in autoimmune diseases. This study explored the association between variation at ERAP2 and (1) infection, (2) autoimmune disease, and (3) parental longevity. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of these outcomes were identified in contemporary cohorts (UK Biobank, FinnGen, and GenOMICC). Effect estimates were extracted for rs2549794 and rs2248374, a haplotype tagging SNP. Additionally, cis expression and protein quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for ERAP2 were used in Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. Consistent with decreased survival in the Black Death, the T allele of rs2549794 showed evidence of association with respiratory infection (odds ratio; OR for pneumonia 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.05). Effect estimates were larger for more severe phenotypes (OR for critical care admission with pneumonia 1.08; 95% CI 1.02-1.14). In contrast, opposing effects were identified for Crohn disease (OR 0.86; 95% CI 0.82-0.90). This allele was shown to associate with decreased ERAP2 expression and protein levels, independent of haplotype. MR analyses suggest that ERAP2 expression may be mediating disease associations. Decreased ERAP2 expression is associated with severe respiratory infection with an opposing association with autoimmune diseases. These data support the hypothesis of balancing selection at this locus driven by autoimmune and infectious disease., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests No authors declare any conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: Severe malaria remains a deadly disease for many young children in low- and middle-income countries. Levels of interleukin (IL)-6 have been shown to identify cases of severe malaria and associate with severity, but it is unknown if this association is causal., Methods: A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP; rs2228145) in the IL-6 receptor was chosen as a genetic variant that is known to alter IL-6 signaling. We tested this, then took this forward as an instrument to perform Mendelian randomization (MR) in MalariaGEN, a large cohort study of patients with severe malaria at 11 worldwide sites., Results: In MR analyses using rs2228145, we did not identify an effect of decreased IL-6 signaling on severe malaria (odds ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval 0.56-2.34, P = 0.713). The estimates of the association with any severe malaria subphenotype were similarly null, although with some imprecision. Further analyses using other MR approaches had similar results., Conclusion: These analyses do not support a causal role for IL-6 signaling in the development of severe malaria. This result suggests IL-6 may not be causal for severe outcomes in malaria, and that therapeutic manipulation of IL-6 is unlikely to be a suitable treatment for severe malaria., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Lung-function impairment underlies chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and predicts mortality. In the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of lung function to date, comprising 580,869 participants, we identified 1,020 independent association signals implicating 559 genes supported by ≥2 criteria from a systematic variant-to-gene mapping framework. These genes were enriched in 29 pathways. Individual variants showed heterogeneity across ancestries, age and smoking groups, and collectively as a genetic risk score showed strong association with COPD across ancestry groups. We undertook phenome-wide association studies for selected associated variants as well as trait and pathway-specific genetic risk scores to infer possible consequences of intervening in pathways underlying lung function. We highlight new putative causal variants, genes, proteins and pathways, including those targeted by existing drugs. These findings bring us closer to understanding the mechanisms underlying lung function and COPD, and should inform functional genomics experiments and potentially future COPD therapies., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Dental occlusion requires harmonious development of teeth, jaws, and other elements of the craniofacial complex, which are regulated by environmental and genetic factors. We performed the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) on dental development (DD) using the Demirjian radiographic method. Radiographic assessments from participants of the Generation R Study (primary study population, N 1  = 2,793; mean age of 9.8 y) were correlated with ~30 million genetic variants while adjusting for age, sex, and genomic principal components (proxy for population stratification). Variants associated with DD at genome-wide significant level ( P  < 5 × 10 -8 ) mapped to 16q12.2 ( IRX5 ) (lead variant rs3922616, B  = 0.16; P  = 2.2 × 10 -8 ). We used Fisher's combined probability tests weighted by sample size to perform a meta-analysis ( N  = 14,805) combining radiographic DD at a mean age of 9.8 y from Generation R with data from a previous GWAS ( N 2  = 12,012) on number of teeth (NT) in infants used as proxy of DD at a mean age of 9.8 y (including the ALSPAC and NFBC1966). This GWAS meta-analysis revealed 3 novel loci mapping to 7p15.3 ( IGF2BP3: P  = 3.2 × 10 -8 ), 14q13.3 ( PAX9: P  = 1.9 × 10 -8 ), and 16q12.2 ( IRX5: P  = 1.2 × 10 -9 ) and validated 8 previously reported NT loci. A polygenic allele score constructed from these 11 loci was associated with radiographic DD in an independent Generation R set of children ( N  = 703; B  = 0.05, P  = 0.004). Furthermore, profiling of the identified genes across an atlas of murine and human stem cells observed expression in the cells involved in the formation of bone and/or dental tissues (>0.3 frequency per kilobase of transcript per million mapped reads), likely reflecting functional specialization. Our findings provide biological insight into the polygenic architecture of the pediatric dental maturation process.

Iron deficiency is associated with a substantial burden of morbidity. However, supplementation of iron has been linked to increased rates of serious infection in randomised trials of children in sub-Saharan Africa. Randomised trials in other settings have been inconclusive and it is unknown if changes in levels of iron biomarkers are linked to sepsis in these other settings. We used genetic variants associated with levels of iron biomarkers as instrumental variables in a Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to test the hypothesis that increasing levels of iron biomarkers increase the risk of sepsis. In observational and MR analyses we found that increases in iron biomarkers increase the odds of sepsis. In stratified analyses, we show that this risk may be larger in those with iron deficiency and/or anaemia. Taken together, results here suggest a required caution in supplementation of iron and underline the role of iron homeostasis in severe infection., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Insulin secretion is critical for glucose homeostasis, and increased levels of the precursor proinsulin relative to insulin indicate pancreatic islet beta-cell stress and insufficient insulin secretory capacity in the setting of insulin resistance. We conducted meta-analyses of genome-wide association results for fasting proinsulin from 16 European-ancestry studies in 45,861 individuals. We found 36 independent signals at 30 loci (p value < 5 × 10 -8 ), which validated 12 previously reported loci for proinsulin and ten additional loci previously identified for another glycemic trait. Half of the alleles associated with higher proinsulin showed higher rather than lower effects on glucose levels, corresponding to different mechanisms. Proinsulin loci included genes that affect prohormone convertases, beta-cell dysfunction, vesicle trafficking, beta-cell transcriptional regulation, and lysosomes/autophagy processes. We colocalized 11 proinsulin signals with islet expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data, suggesting candidate genes, including ARSG, WIPI1, SLC7A14, and SIX3. The NKX6-3/ANK1 proinsulin signal colocalized with a T2D signal and an adipose ANK1 eQTL signal but not the islet NKX6-3 eQTL. Signals were enriched for islet enhancers, and we showed a plausible islet regulatory mechanism for the lead signal in the MADD locus. These results show how detailed genetic studies of an intermediate phenotype can elucidate mechanisms that may predispose one to disease., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests J.B.M. is an academic associate for Quest Diagnostics Endocrine R&D. M.E.K. is employed by SYNLAB Holding Deutschland GmbH. C.M.L. receives grants from Bayer Ag and Novo Nordisk and her husband works for Vertex. B.Z. is employed at the Swedish Medical Products Agency, SE-751 03 Uppsala, Sweden; the views expressed in this paper are the personal views of the authors and not necessarily the views of the Swedish government agency. B.Z. has not received any funding or benefits from any sponsor for the present work. J.C.F. receives consulting honoraria from Goldfinch Bio and AstraZeneca and speaker honoraria from Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca, and Merck for research lectures over which he had full control on content. D.A.L. has received support from Medtronics Ltd and Roche Diagnostics for research unrelated to this paper. W.M. reports grants and personal fees from Siemens Diagnostics, grants and personal fees from Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, grants and personal fees from AMGEN, grants and personal fees from AstraZeneca, grants and personal fees from Danone Research, grants and personal fees from Sanofi, personal fees from Hoffmann LaRoche, personal fees from MSD, grants and personal fees from Pfizer, personal fees from Synageva, grants and personal fees from BASF, grants from Abbott Diagnostics, and grants and personal fees from Numares, outside the submitted work. W.M. is employed by Synlab Holding Deutschland GmbH. R.W. reports lecture fees from Novo Nordisk and Sanofi and served on an advisory board for Akcea Therapeutics, Daiichi Sankyo, Sanofi, and Novo Nordisk. E.W. is now an employee of AstraZeneca., (Copyright © 2023 American Society of Human Genetics. All rights reserved.)

Multiple studies across global populations have established the primary symptoms characterising Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and long COVID. However, as symptoms may also occur in the absence of COVID-19, a lack of appropriate controls has often meant that specificity of symptoms to acute COVID-19 or long COVID, and the extent and length of time for which they are elevated after COVID-19, could not be examined. We analysed individual symptom prevalences and characterised patterns of COVID-19 and long COVID symptoms across nine UK longitudinal studies, totalling over 42,000 participants. Conducting latent class analyses separately in three groups ('no COVID-19', 'COVID-19 in last 12 weeks', 'COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago'), the data did not support the presence of more than two distinct symptom patterns, representing high and low symptom burden, in each group. Comparing the high symptom burden classes between the 'COVID-19 in last 12 weeks' and 'no COVID-19' groups we identified symptoms characteristic of acute COVID-19, including loss of taste and smell, fatigue, cough, shortness of breath and muscle pains or aches. Comparing the high symptom burden classes between the 'COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago' and 'no COVID-19' groups we identified symptoms characteristic of long COVID, including fatigue, shortness of breath, muscle pain or aches, difficulty concentrating and chest tightness. The identified symptom patterns among individuals with COVID-19 > 12 weeks ago were strongly associated with self-reported length of time unable to function as normal due to COVID-19 symptoms, suggesting that the symptom pattern identified corresponds to long COVID. Building the evidence base regarding typical long COVID symptoms will improve diagnosis of this condition and the ability to elicit underlying biological mechanisms, leading to better patient access to treatment and services., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Obesity is a major risk factor for Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) severity; however, the mechanisms underlying this relationship are not fully understood. As obesity influences the plasma proteome, we sought to identify circulating proteins mediating the effects of obesity on COVID-19 severity in humans. Here, we screened 4,907 plasma proteins to identify proteins influenced by body mass index using Mendelian randomization. This yielded 1,216 proteins, whose effect on COVID-19 severity was assessed, again using Mendelian randomization. We found that an s.d. increase in nephronectin (NPNT) was associated with increased odds of critically ill COVID-19 (OR = 1.71, P = 1.63 × 10 -10 ). The effect was driven by an NPNT splice isoform. Mediation analyses supported NPNT as a mediator. In single-cell RNA-sequencing, NPNT was expressed in alveolar cells and fibroblasts of the lung in individuals who died of COVID-19. Finally, decreasing body fat mass and increasing fat-free mass were found to lower NPNT levels. These findings provide actionable insights into how obesity influences COVID-19 severity., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Background: Sepsis is characterised by dysregulated, life-threatening immune responses, which are thought to be driven by cytokines such as interleukin 6 (IL-6). Genetic variants in IL6R known to down-regulate IL-6 signalling are associated with improved Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, a finding later confirmed in randomised trials of IL-6 receptor antagonists (IL6RAs). We hypothesised that blockade of IL6R could also improve outcomes in sepsis., Methods and Findings: We performed a Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in and near IL6R to evaluate the likely causal effects of IL6R blockade on sepsis (primary outcome), sepsis severity, other infections, and COVID-19 (secondary outcomes). We weighted SNPs by their effect on CRP and combined results across them in inverse variance weighted meta-analysis, proxying the effect of IL6RA. Our outcomes were measured in UK Biobank, FinnGen, the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (HGI), and the GenOSept and GainS consortium. We performed several sensitivity analyses to test assumptions of our methods, including utilising variants around CRP and gp130 in a similar analysis. In the UK Biobank cohort (N = 486,484, including 11,643 with sepsis), IL6R blockade was associated with a decreased risk of our primary outcome, sepsis (odds ratio (OR) = 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 0.96, per unit of natural log-transformed CRP decrease). The size of this effect increased with severity, with larger effects on 28-day sepsis mortality (OR = 0.74; 95% CI 0.47 to 1.15); critical care admission with sepsis (OR = 0.48, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.78) and critical care death with sepsis (OR = 0.37, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.98). Similar associations were seen with severe respiratory infection: OR for pneumonia in critical care 0.69 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.97) and for sepsis survival in critical care (OR = 0.22; 95% CI 0.04 to 1.31) in the GainS and GenOSept consortium, although this result had a large degree of imprecision. We also confirm the previously reported protective effect of IL6R blockade on severe COVID-19 (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.84) in the COVID-19 HGI, which was of similar magnitude to that seen in sepsis. Sensitivity analyses did not alter our primary results. These results are subject to the limitations and assumptions of MR, which in this case reflects interpretation of these SNP effects as causally acting through blockade of IL6R, and reflect lifetime exposure to IL6R blockade, rather than the effect of therapeutic IL6R blockade., Conclusions: IL6R blockade is causally associated with reduced incidence of sepsis. Similar but imprecisely estimated results supported a causal effect also on sepsis related mortality and critical care admission with sepsis. These effects are comparable in size to the effect seen in severe COVID-19, where IL-6 receptor antagonists were shown to improve survival. These data suggest that a randomised trial of IL-6 receptor antagonists in sepsis should be considered., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: GDS is a member of PLOS Medicine’s editorial board. GDS reports Scientific Advisory Board Membership for Relation Therapeutics and Insitro., (Copyright: © 2023 Hamilton et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody levels can be used to assess humoral immune responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination, and may predict risk of future infection. Higher levels of SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike antibodies are known to be associated with increased protection against future SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, variation in antibody levels and risk factors for lower antibody levels following each round of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination have not been explored across a wide range of socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination, and health factors within population-based cohorts., Methods: Samples were collected from 9361 individuals from TwinsUK and ALSPAC UK population-based longitudinal studies and tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Cross-sectional sampling was undertaken jointly in April-May 2021 (TwinsUK, N=4256; ALSPAC, N=4622), and in TwinsUK only in November 2021-January 2022 (N=3575). Variation in antibody levels after first, second, and third SARS-CoV-2 vaccination with health, socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination variables were analysed. Using multivariable logistic regression models, we tested associations between antibody levels following vaccination and: (1) SARS-CoV-2 infection following vaccination(s); (2) health, socio-demographic, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination variables., Results: Within TwinsUK, single-vaccinated individuals with the lowest 20% of anti-Spike antibody levels at initial testing had threefold greater odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection over the next 6-9 months (OR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.4, 6.0), compared to the top 20%. In TwinsUK and ALSPAC, individuals identified as at increased risk of COVID-19 complication through the UK 'Shielded Patient List' had consistently greater odds (two- to fourfold) of having antibody levels in the lowest 10%. Third vaccination increased absolute antibody levels for almost all individuals, and reduced relative disparities compared with earlier vaccinations., Conclusions: These findings quantify the association between antibody level and risk of subsequent infection, and support a policy of triple vaccination for the generation of protective antibodies., Funding: Antibody testing was funded by UK Health Security Agency. The National Core Studies program is funded by COVID-19 Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing - National Core Study (LHW-NCS) HMT/UKRI/MRC ([MC&#95;PC&#95;20030] and [MC&#95;PC&#95;20059]). Related funding was also provided by the NIHR 606 (CONVALESCENCE grant [COV-LT-0009]). TwinsUK is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Versus Arthritis, European Union Horizon 2020, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (CRN) and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London. The UK Medical Research Council and Wellcome (Grant ref: [217065/Z/19/Z]) and the University of Bristol provide core support for ALSPAC., Competing Interests: NC, AW, RS, AK, DW, OH, PL, GD, JZ, GP, ET, RB, XZ, GA, DH, JS, CG, NK, SA, MM, RM, KN, DM, SM, TB, MC, LM, AK, KD, ED, NT No competing interests declared, MK received payment for attending the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) symposium. The author has no other competing interests to declare, CB received an ESRC and NIHR funded Grant, and MRC Funded Studentship. The author has no other competing interests to declare, SK participates on the Scottish Government Expert Reference Group on Ethnicity and COVID-19, and UK Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) subgroup on Ethnicity. The author has no other competing interests to declare, MG is a member of the King's College London Health Faculties Research Ethics Subcommittee (Purple), and a Chair of the TwinsUK Volunteer Advisory Panel. The author has no other competing interests to declare, NC received payment for clinical trials of a diabetes drug from AstraZeneca. Nishi Chaturvedi is Chair of British Heart Foundation Fellowships Committee, a member of Diabetes UK research committee and a member of NWO Gravitational Awards Committee. The author has no other competing interests to declare, CS received payment for consultancy work for Zoe Ltd. The author has no other competing interests to declare, (© 2023, Cheetham et al.)

Background: Predicting the likely size of future SARS-CoV-2 waves is necessary for public health planning. In England, voluntary "plan B" mitigation measures were introduced in December 2021 including increased home working and face coverings in shops but stopped short of restrictions on social contacts. The impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on future SARS-CoV-2 burden is unknown., Methods: We developed a rapid online survey of risk mitigation behaviours ahead of the winter 2021 festive period and deployed in two longitudinal cohort studies in the UK (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and TwinsUK/COVID Symptom Study (CSS) Biobank) in December 2021. Using an individual-based, probabilistic model of COVID-19 transmission between social contacts with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant parameters and realistic vaccine coverage in England, we predicted the potential impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in England in terms of the effective reproduction number and cumulative infections, hospital admissions and deaths. Using survey results, we estimated in real-time the impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on the Omicron wave in England, if implemented for the entire epidemic wave., Results: Over 95% of survey respondents (N ALSPAC  = 2686 and N Twins  = 6155) reported some risk mitigation behaviours, with vaccination and using home testing kits reported most frequently. Less than half of those respondents reported that their behaviour was due to "plan B". We estimate that without risk mitigation behaviours, the Omicron variant is consistent with an effective reproduction number between 2.5 and 3.5. Due to the reduced vaccine effectiveness against infection with the Omicron variant, our modelled estimates suggest that between 55% and 60% of the English population could be infected during the current wave, translating into between 12,000 and 46,000 cumulative deaths, depending on assumptions about severity and vaccine effectiveness. The actual number of deaths was 15,208 (26 November 2021-1 March 2022). We estimate that voluntary risk reduction measures could reduce the effective reproduction number to between 1.8 and 2.2 and reduce the cumulative number of deaths by up to 24%., Conclusions: Predicting future infection burden is affected by uncertainty in disease severity and vaccine effectiveness estimates. In addition to biological uncertainty, we show that voluntary measures substantially reduce the projected impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant but that voluntary measures alone would be unlikely to completely control transmission., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Observational studies have linked childhood obesity with elevated risk of colorectal cancer; however, it is unclear if this association is causal or independent from the effects of obesity in adulthood on colorectal cancer risk., Methods: We conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate potential causal relationships between self-perceived body size (thinner, plumper, or about average) in early life (age 10) and measured body mass index in adulthood (mean age 56.5) with risk of colorectal cancer. The total and independent effects of body size exposures were estimated using univariable and multivariable MR, respectively. Summary data were obtained from a genome-wide association study of 453,169 participants in UK Biobank for body size and from a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of three colorectal cancer consortia of 125,478 participants., Results: Genetically predicted early life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR] per category change: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.27), with stronger results for colon cancer (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00-1.35), and distal colon cancer (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04-1.51). After accounting for adult body size using multivariable MR, effect estimates for early life body size were attenuated towards the null for colorectal cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.77-1.22) and colon cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.76-1.25), while the estimate for distal colon cancer was of similar magnitude but more imprecise (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.90-1.77). Genetically predicted adult life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.57), colon (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.67), and proximal colon (OR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.05)., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the positive association between early life body size and colorectal cancer risk is likely due to large body size retainment into adulthood., (© 2022. The Author(s).)