Search

Background: Immunocompromised individuals are known to respond inadequately to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, placing them at high risk of severe or fatal COVID-19. Thus, immunocompromised individuals and their caregivers may still practice varying degrees of social or physical distancing to avoid COVID-19. However, the association between physical distancing to avoid COVID-19 and quality of life has not been comprehensively evaluated in any study., Objective: We aim to measure physical distancing behaviors among immunocompromised individuals and the association between those behaviors and person-centric outcomes, including health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures, health state utilities, anxiety and depression, and work and school productivity impairment., Methods: A patient-informed protocol was developed to conduct the EAGLE Study, a large cross-sectional, observational study, and this paper describes that protocol. EAGLE is designed to measure distancing behaviors and outcomes in immunocompromised individuals, including children (aged ≥6 mo) and their caregivers, and nonimmunocompromised adults in the United States and United Kingdom who report no receipt of passive immunization against COVID-19. We previously developed a novel self- and observer-reported instrument, the Physical Distancing Scale for COVID-19 Avoidance (PDS-C19), to measure physical distancing behavior levels cross-sectionally and retrospectively. Using an interim or a randomly selected subset of the study population, the PDS-C19 psychometric properties will be assessed, including structural validity, internal consistency, known-group validity, and convergent validity. Associations (correlations) will be assessed between the PDS-C19 and validated HRQoL-related measures and utilities. Structural equation modeling and regression will be used to assess these associations, adjusting for potential confounders. Participant recruitment and data collection took place from December 2022 to June 2023 using direct-to-patient channels, including panels, clinician referral, patient advocacy groups, and social media, with immunocompromising diagnosis confirmation collected and assessed for a randomly selected 25% of immunocompromised participants. The planned total sample size is 3718 participants and participant-caregiver pairs. Results will be reported by immunocompromised status, immunocompromising condition category, country, age group, and other subgroups., Results: All data analyses and reporting were planned to be completed by December 2023. Results are planned to be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals in 2024-2025., Conclusions: This study will quantify immunocompromised individuals' physical distancing behaviors to avoid COVID-19 and their association with HRQoL as well as health state utilities., International Registered Report Identifier (irrid): RR1-10.2196/52643., (©Paul Williams, Timothy A Herring, Renata T C Yokota, Tiago Maia, Sudhir Venkatesan, James C Marcus, Gabriella Settergren, Sofie Arnetorp, Andrew Lloyd, Johan L Severens, James W Varni, Sharon Dixon, Lweendo Hamusankwa, Philip A Powell, Sylvia Taylor, John E Ware Jr, Marieke Krol. Originally published in JMIR Research Protocols (https://www.researchprotocols.org), 13.08.2024.)

Rationale, Aims, and Objectives: While different imaging and treatment options are available in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) care, there is a lack of data regarding their use across Europe. We examined the diagnostic and treatment strategies in patients with known or suspected ACS as reported by physicians and identified variations in responses across European countries and geographical areas., Method: A web-based clinician survey focusing on ACS imaging and revascularization treatments was circulated through email distribution lists and websites of European professional societies in the field of cardiology. We collected information on respondents' clinical setting and specialty. Reported percentages of patients receiving imaging or treatment modalities and percentages of clinicians reporting to use modalities in a range of clinical scenarios were analyzed. Statistical comparisons were performed., Results: In total, 69 responses were received (Sweden [n = 20], United Kingdom [n = 16], Northern/Western Europe [n = 17], Southern Europe [n = 9], and Central Europe [n = 7]). Considerable variations between geographical areas were seen in terms of reported diagnostic modalities and treatment strategies. For example, when presented with the scenario of a theoretical 45-year-old smoking female with a suspected ACS, 56% of UK clinicians reported to use coronary computed tomography angiography, compared to only 10% of Swedish clinicians (P = .002). Large variations were observed regarding the reported use of fractional flow reserve by physicians for non-culprit lesions during invasive management of myocardial infarction patients (44% in Sweden, 31% in the United Kingdom, and 30% in Northern/Western Europe vs non-use in Central and Southern Europe)., Conclusions: In this survey, respondents reported different diagnostic and treatment strategies in ACS care. These variations seem to have geographic components. Larger studies or real world data are needed to verify these observations and investigate their causes. More research is needed to compare the quality and efficiency of ACS care across countries and explore pathways for improvement., (© 2020 The Authors. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Importance: Two 2018 randomized controlled trials (DAWN and DEFUSE 3) demonstrated the clinical benefit of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) more than 6 hours after onset in acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Health-economic evidence is needed to determine whether the short-term health benefits of late MT translate to a cost-effective option during a lifetime in the United States., Objective: To compare the cost-effectiveness of 2 strategies (MT added to standard medical care [SMC] vs SMC alone) for various subgroups of patients with AIS receiving care more than 6 hours after symptom onset., Design, Setting, and Participants: This economic evaluation study used the results of the DAWN and DEFUSE 3 trials to populate a cost-effectiveness model from a US health care perspective combining a decision tree and Markov trace. The DAWN and DEFUSE 3 trials enrolled 206 international patients from 2014 to 2017 and 182 US patients from 2016 to 2017, respectively. Patients were followed until 3 months after stroke. The clinical outcome at 3 months was available for 29 subgroups of patients with AIS and anterior circulation large vessel occlusions. Data analysis was conducted from July 2018 to October 2019., Exposures: MT with SMC in the extended treatment window vs SMC alone., Main Outcomes and Measures: Expected costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) during lifetime were estimated. Deterministic results (incremental costs and effectiveness, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and net monetary benefit) were presented, and probabilistic analyses were performed for the total populations and 27 patient subgroups., Results: In the DAWN study, the MT group had a mean (SD) age of 69.4 (14.1) years and 42 of 107 (39.3%) were men, and the control group had a mean (SD) age of 70.7 (13.2) years and 51 of 99 (51.5%) were men. In the DEFUSE 3 study, the MT group had a median (interquartile range) age of 70 (59-79) years, and 46 of 92 (50.0%) were men, and the control group had a median (interquartile range) age of 71 (59-80) years, and 44 of 90 (48.9%) were men. For the total trial population, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were $662/QALY and $13 877/QALY based on the DAWN and DEFUSE 3 trials, respectively. MT with SMC beyond 6 hours had a probability greater than 99.9% of being cost-effective vs SMC alone at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALY. Subgroup analyses showed a wide range of probabilities for MT with SMC to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000/QALY, with the greatest uncertainty observed for patients with a National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score of at least 16 and for those aged 80 years or older., Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that late MT added to SMC is cost-effective in all subgroups evaluated in the DAWN and DEFUSE 3 trials, with most results being robust in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Future MT evidence-gathering could focus on older patients and those with National Institute of Health Stroke Scale scores of 16 and greater.

Background: Empirical identification of the direct impact of hospitalisation in the change in utility could provide an interpretation for some of the unexplained variance in quality of life responses in clinical practice and clinical trials and provide assistance to researchers in assessing the impact of a hospitalisation in the context of economic evaluations. This study had the goal of determining the impact of nonfatal hospitalisations on the quality of life of a cohort of patients previously diagnosed with heart failure by using their quality of life measurements before and after hospitalisation., Methods: The impact of hospitalisation on health-related quality of life was estimated by calculating the difference in utility measured using the EQ-5D-3L in patients that were hospitalised and had records of utility before and after hospitalisation. The variation in differences between the utilities pre and post hospitalisation was explained through two multiple linear regression models using (1) the individual patient characteristics and (2) the hospitalisation characteristics as explanatory variables., Results: The mean difference between health-related quality of life measurement pre and post hospitalisation was found to be 0.020 [95% CI: - 0.020, 0.059] when measured with the EQ-5D index, while there was a mean decrease of - 0.012 [95% CI: - 0.043, 0.020] in the utility measured with the visual analogue scale. Differences in utility variation according to the primary cause for hospitalisation were found. Regression models showed a statistically significant impact of body mass index and serum creatinine in the index utility differences and of serum creatinine for utilities measured with the visual analogue scale., Conclusions: Knowing the impact of hospitalisation on health-related quality of life is particularly relevant for informing cost-effectiveness studies designed to assess health technologies aimed at reducing hospital admissions. Through using patient-level data it was possible to estimate the variation in utilities before and after the average hospitalisation and for hospitalisations due to the most common causes for hospital admission. These estimates for (dis) utility could be used in the calculations of effectiveness on economic evaluations, especially when discrete event simulations are the employed modelling technique.

Background: Severe adverse events after treatment with ivermectin in individuals with high levels of Loa loa microfilariae in the blood preclude onchocerciasis elimination through community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) in Central Africa. We measured the cost of a community-based pilot using a test-and-not-treat (TaNT) strategy in the Soa health district in Cameroon., Methods: Based on actual expenditures, we empirically estimated the economic cost of the Soa TaNT campaign, including financial costs and opportunity costs that will likely be borne by control programs and stakeholders in the future. In addition to the empirical analyses, we estimated base-case, less intensive, and more intensive resource use scenarios to explore how costs might differ if TaNT were implemented programmatically., Results: The total costs of US$283 938 divided by total population, people tested, and people treated with 42% coverage were US$4.0, US$9.2, and US$9.5, respectively. In programmatic implementation, these costs (base-case estimates with less and more intensive scenarios) could be US$2.2 ($1.9-$3.6), US$5.2 ($4.5-$8.3), and US$5.4 ($4.6-$8.6), respectively., Conclusions: TaNT clearly provides a safe strategy for large-scale ivermectin treatment and overcomes a major obstacle to the elimination of onchocerciasis in areas coendemic for Loa loa. Although it is more expensive than standard CDTI, costs vary depending on the setting, the implementation choices made by the institutions involved, and the community participation rate. Research on the required duration of TaNT is needed to improve the affordability assessment, and more experience is needed to understand how to implement TaNT optimally., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Purpose: To review types and frequencies of adverse events (AE) associated with bone-conduction hearing implants (BCHIs) and active middle-ear implants (aMEIs) as reported in the literature., Methods: Cochrane, PubMed, and EMBASE libraries were searched for primary articles in English or German language that reported on adverse events following BCHI or aMEI implantation, included at least five patients and were published between 1996 and 2016. Study characteristics, demographics, and counts of adverse events were tabulated and analyzed within the R statistical programming environment., Results: Following assessment of the reporting quality of adverse events, we present a brief guideline that potentially improves AE reporting in this field of research. For the full dataset, we summarize study-level adverse event frequencies in terms of ratio of events to ears (REE) by AE groups and by device. For a subset of studies, we also report cumulative incidence (risk) for minor- and major adverse-events by device and by device groups., Conclusions: Data analyzed in this review show that: (1) the reporting quality of adverse events associated with BCHI and aMEIs is often very low; (2) adverse events associated with BCHI and aMEIs are qualitatively different and not equally frequent among devices; (3) state-of-the-art implantable BCHIs and aMEIs are a safe treatment option for hearing loss.

Systematic reviews with economic components are important decision tools for stakeholders seeking to evaluate technologies, such as breast cancer screening (BCS) programs. This overview of systematic reviews explores the determinants of the cost-effectiveness of BCS and assesses the quality of secondary evidence. The search identified 30 systematic reviews that reported on the determinants of the cost-effectiveness of BCS, including the costs of breast cancer and BCS. While the quality of the reviews varied widely, only four out of 30 papers were considered to be of a high quality. We did not identify publication bias in the original evidence on the cost-effectiveness of mammography screening; however, we highlight a need for improved clarity in both reporting and data verification. The reviews consisted mainly of studies from high-income countries. Breast cancer costs varied widely among the studies. Factors leading to higher costs included: time (diagnosis and last months before death), later stage or metastases, recurrence of the disease, age below 64 years and type of follow-up (more intensive or more specialized). Overall, screening with mammography was considered cost-effective in the age range 50-69 years in Western European and Northern American countries but not for older or younger women. Its cost-effectiveness was questionable for low-income settings and Asia. Mammography screening was more cost-effective with biennial screening compared to annual screening and single reading using computer-aided detection vs double reading. No information on the cost-effectiveness of ultrasonography was found, and there is much uncertainty on the cost-effectiveness of CBE because of methodological limitations., (© 2019 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background and Purpose- In the United Kingdom, mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for acute ischemic stroke patients assessed beyond 6 hours from symptom onset will be commissioned up to 12 hours provided that advanced imaging (AdvImg) demonstrates salvageable brain tissue. While the accuracy of AdvImg differs across technologies, evidence is limited regarding the proportion of patients who would benefit from late MT. We compared the cost-effectiveness of 2 care pathways: (1) MT within and beyond 6 hours based on AdvImg selection versus (2) MT only within 6 hours based on conventional imaging selection. The impact of varying AdvImg accuracy and prior probability for acute ischemic stroke patients to benefit from late MT was assessed. Methods- A decision tree and a Markov trace were developed. A hypothetical United Kingdom cohort of suspected stroke patients aged 71 years with first event was modeled. Costs, health outcomes, and probabilities were obtained from the literature. Outcomes included costs, life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Various scenarios with prior probabilities of 10%, 20%, and 30%, respectively, for acute ischemic stroke patients to benefit from late MT, and with perfect accuracy, 80% sensitivity, and 70% specificity of AdvImg were studied. Results- Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios resulting from our deterministic analyses varied from $8199 (£6164) to $49 515 (£37 229) per QALY gained. AdvImg accuracy impacted the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio only when its specificity decreased. Over lifetime horizons, all scenarios including late MT improved QALYs and LYs. Depending on the scenario, the probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed probabilities varying between 46% and 93% for the late MT pathway to be cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of $39 900 (£30 000) per QALY. Conclusions- Late MT based on AdvImg selection may be good value for money. However, additional data regarding the implementation of AdvImg and prior probability to benefit from late MT are needed before its cost-effectiveness can be fully assessed.

Background: In health economic literature, checklists or best practice recommendations on model validation/credibility always declare verification of the programmed model as a fundamental step, such as 'is the model implemented correctly and does the implementation accurately represent the conceptual model?' However, to date, little operational guidance for the model verification process has been given. In this study, we aimed to create an operational checklist for model users or reviewers to verify the technical implementation of health economic decision analytical models and document their verification efforts., Methods: Literature on model validation, verification, programming errors and credibility was reviewed systematically from scientific databases. An initial beta version of the checklist was developed based on the checklists/tests identified from the literature and from authors' previous modeling/appraisal experience. Next, the first draft checklist was presented to a number of health economists on several occasions and was tested on different models (built in different software, developed by different stakeholders, including drug manufacturers, consultancies or academia), each time leading to an update of the checklist and culminating in the final version of the TECHnical VERification (TECH-VER) checklist, introduced in this paper., Results: The TECH-VER necessitates a model reviewer (preferably independent), an executable and transparent model, its input sources, and detailed documentation (e.g. technical report/scientific paper) in which the conceptual model, its implementation, programmed model inputs, and results are reported. The TECH-VER checklist consists of five domains: (1) input calculations; (2) event-state (patient flow) calculations; (3) result calculations; (4) uncertainty analysis calculations; and (5) other overall checks (e.g. validity or interface). The first four domains reflect the verification of the components of a typical health economic model. For these domains, as a prerequisite of verification tests, the reviewer should identify the relevant calculations in the electronic model and assess the provided justifications for the methods used in the identified calculations. For this purpose, we recommend completeness/consistency checks. Afterwards, the verification tests can be conducted for the calculations in each of these stages by checking the correctness of the implementation of these calculations. For this purpose, the following type of tests are recommended in consecutive order: (i) black-box tests, i.e. checking if model calculations are in line with a priori expectations; (ii) white-box testing, i.e. going through the program code details line by line, or cell by cell (recommended for some crucial calculations and if there are some unexpected results from the black-box tests); and (iii) model replication/parallel programming (recommended only in certain situations, and if the issues related to the identified unexpected results from black-box tests could not be resolved through white-box testing). To reduce the time burden of model verification, we suggest a hierarchical order in tests i-iii, where going to the next step is necessary when the previous step fails., Conclusions: The TECH-VER checklist is a comprehensive checklist for the technical verification of decision analytical models, aiming to help identify model implementation errors and their root causes while improving the transparency and efficiency of the verification efforts. In addition to external reviews, we consider that the TECH-VER can be used as an internal training and quality control tool for new health economists, while developing their initial models. It is the authors' aim that the TECH-VER checklist transforms itself to an open-source living document, with possible future versions, or 'bolt-on' extensions for specific applications with additional 'fit-for-purpose' tests, as well as 'tips and tricks' and some demonstrative error examples. For this reason, the TECH-VER checklist and the list of black-box tests created in this paper and a few model verification examples is uploaded to an open access, online platform (github and the website of the institute), where other users will also be able to upload their original verification efforts and tests.

Rationale, Aims, and Objectives: In recent years, several expensive new health technologies have been introduced. The availability of those technologies intensifies the discussion regarding the affordability of these technologies at different decision-making levels. On the meso level, both hospitals and clinicians are facing budget constraints resulting in a tension to balance between different patients' interests. As such, it is crucial to make optimal use of the available resources. Different strategies are in place to deal with this problem, but decisions on a macro level on what to fund or not can limit the role and freedom of clinicians in their decisions on a micro level. At the same time, without central guidance regarding such decisions, micro level decisions may lead to inequities and undesirable treatment variation between clinicians and hospitals. The challenge is to find instruments that can balance both levels of decision making., Discussion: Clinicians are becoming increasingly aware that their decisions to spend more resources (like time and budget) on 1 particular patient group reduce the resources available to other patients. Involving clinicians in thinking about the optimal use of limited resources, also in an attempt to bridge the world of economic reasoning and clinical practice, is crucial therefore. We argue that clinical guidelines may prove a clear vehicle for this by including both clinical and economic evidence to support the recommendations made. The development of such guidelines requires cooperation of clinicians, and health economists are cooperating with each other., Conclusion: The development of clinical guidelines which combine economic and clinical evidence should be stimulated, to balance central guidance and uniformity while maintaining necessary decentralized freedom. This is an opportunity to combine the reality of budgets and opportunity costs with clinical practice. Missing this opportunity risks either variation and inequity or central and necessarily crude measures., (© 2018 The Authors Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objectives: Value of information (VOI) analysis provides information on opportunity cost of a decision in healthcare by estimating the cost of reducing parametric uncertainty and quantifying the value of generating additional evidence. This study is an application of the VOI methodology to the problem of choosing between home telemonitoring and nurse telephone support over usual care in chronic heart failure management in the Netherlands., Methods: The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and the expected value of partially perfect information (EVPPI) analyses were based on an informal threshold of €20K per quality-adjusted life-year. These VOI-analyses were applied to a probabilistic Markov model comparing the 20-year costs and effects in three interventions. The EVPPI explored the value of decision uncertainty caused by the following group of parameters: treatment-specific transition probabilities between New York Heart Association (NYHA) defined disease states, utilities associated with the disease states, number of hospitalizations and ER visits, health state specific costs, and the distribution of patients per NYHA group. We performed the analysis for two population sizes in the Netherlands-patients in all NYHA classes of severity, and patients in NYHA IV class only., Results: The population EVPI for an effective population of 2,841,567 CHF patients in All NYHA classes of severity over the next 20 years is more than €4.5B, implying that further research is highly cost-effective. In the NYHA IV only analysis, for the effective population of 208,003 patients over next 20 years, the population EVPI at the same informal threshold is approx. €590M. The EVPPI analysis showed that the only relevant group of parameters that contribute to the overall decision uncertainty are transition probabilities, in both All NYHA and NYHA IV analyses., Conclusions: Results of our VOI exercise show that the cost of uncertainty regarding the decision on reimbursement of telehealth interventions for chronic heart failure patients is high in the Netherlands, and that future research is needed, mainly on the transition probabilities., Competing Interests: We have the following interests: This study was funded by Philips. A.Grustam and R.Koymans are/were affiliated to Philips. J. Severens was compensated by Philips in the form of a consultancy fee paid to his institution. H. Vrijhoef is an owner of Panaxea b.v.. There are no patents, products in development or marketed products to declare. This does not alter our adherence to all the PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

This report provides recommendations for budget holders and decision makers in high-, middle, and low-income countries requiring economic analyses of new vaccination programs to allocate scarce resources given budget constraints. ISPOR's Economic Evaluation of Vaccines Designed to Prevent Infectious Disease: Good Practices Task Force wrote guidelines for three analytic methods and solicited comments on them from external reviewers. Cost-effectiveness analyses use decision-analytic models to estimate cumulative changes in resource use, costs, and changes in quality- or disability-adjusted life-years attributable to changes in disease outcomes. Constrained optimization modeling uses a mathematical objective function to be optimized (e.g. disease cases avoided) for a target population for a set of interventions including vaccination programs within established constraints. Fiscal health modeling estimates changes in net present value of government revenues and expenditures attributable to changes in disease outcomes. The task force recommends that those designing economic analyses for new vaccination programs take into account the decision maker's policy objectives and country-specific decision context when estimating: uptake rate in the target population; vaccination program's impact on disease cases in the population over time using a dynamic transmission epidemiologic model; vaccination program implementation and operating costs; and the changes in costs and health outcomes of the target disease(s). The three approaches to economic analysis are complementary and can be used alone or together to estimate a vaccination program's economic value for national, regional, or subregional decision makers in high-, middle-, and low-income countries., (Copyright © 2018 ISPOR–The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To assess the cost effectiveness of home telemonitoring (HTM) and nurse telephone support (NTS) compared with usual care (UC) in the management of patients with chronic heart failure, from a third-party payer's perspective., Methods: We developed a Markov model with a 20-year time horizon to analyze the cost effectiveness using the original study (Trans-European Network-Home-Care Management System) and various data sources. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the decision uncertainty in our model., Results: In the original scenario (which concerned the cost inputs at the time of the original study), HTM and NTS interventions yielded a difference in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained compared with UC: 2.93 and 3.07, respectively, versus 1.91. An incremental net monetary benefit analysis showed €7,697 and €13,589 in HTM and NTS versus UC at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of €20,000, and €69,100 and €83,100 at a WTP threshold of €80,000, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were €12,479 for HTM versus UC and €8,270 for NTS versus UC. The current scenario (including telenurse cost inputs in NTS) yielded results that were slightly different from those for the original scenario, when comparing all New York Heart Association (NYHA) classes of severity. NTS dominated HTM, compared with UC, in all NYHA classes except NYHA IV., Conclusions: This modeling study demonstrated that HTM and NTS are viable solutions to support patients with chronic heart failure. NTS is cost-effective in comparison with UC at a WTP of €9000/QALY or higher. Like NTS, HTM improves the survival of patients in all NYHA classes and is cost-effective in comparison with UC at a WTP of €14,000/QALY or higher., (Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aim: To compare health-related quality of life (HRQoL) descriptions and utility scores in newly diagnosed peripheral arterial disease (PAD) patients, using two most widely used instruments, EuroQol 5D (EQ-5D) and Medical Outcome Study 36-item Short-Form Health Status Survey (SF-36)., Methods: Patients' self-assessment of HRQoL was measured by the Dutch versions of the EQ-5D and SF-36 in the 204 patients., Results: Mean utility scores ranged from 0.675 for Short-Form Six-Dimension, 0.648 for the EQ-5D UK tariff and 0.715 for the Dutch EQ-5D tariff. A moderate correlation between the utility scores was found due to different valuation techniques of these instruments., Conclusion: Both instruments have clinical validity for use in the PAD and can be used alongside each other to provide a holistic assessment of the HRQoL. Before using these two instruments interchangeably for utility score calculations and healthcare resource allocation, a thorough sensitivity analysis is necessary to explore the robustness of the value argument based on these utility scores.

Introduction: Describing the general and methodological characteristics of decision-analytical models used in the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients and performing a quality assessment of their methodological characteristics is expected to provide concise and useful insight to inform the future development of decision-analytical models in the field of heart failure management., Areas Covered: The literature on decision-analytical models for the economic evaluation of early warning systems for the management of chronic heart failure patients was systematically reviewed. Nine electronic databases were searched through the combination of synonyms for heart failure and sensitive filters for cost-effectiveness and early warning systems., Expert Commentary: The retrieved models show some variability with regards to their general study characteristics. Overall, they display satisfactory methodological quality, even though some points could be improved, namely on the consideration and discussion of any competing theories regarding model structure and disease progression, identification of key parameters and the use of expert opinion, and uncertainty analyses. A comprehensive definition of early warning systems and further research under this label should be pursued. To improve the transparency of economic evaluation publications, authors should make available detailed technical information regarding the published models.

Introduction: The cost-effectiveness of clinical interventions is often assessed using current care as comparator. However, evidence suggests practice variation in stroke imaging across countries. For the purpose of feeding into cost-effectiveness analysis, this research aims to describe the patterns of stroke imaging, examine practice variations across countries and, as such, obtain results reflecting current care., Areas Covered: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify original studies reporting the imaging workup used in acute stroke care in clinical practice in Hungary, Germany, Sweden and the UK. Information regarding the type and frequency of stroke imaging was analysed. Computed Tomography (CT) was reported as the main diagnostic imaging modality used in stroke care (78-98% across patient profiles and time periods). This review revealed patterns that were not observed in individual studies. Comparisons of UK studies revealed considerable variations in the proportion of scanned patients and timing of imaging., Expert Commentary: While the evidence about thrombectomy is difficult to translate in clinical practice, the evidence regarding the optimal imaging approach to diagnose stroke patients is lacking. The heterogeneity in stroke imaging reinforces the need to compare the quality of stroke care within and between countries.

Background: The control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has targets defined by the WHO for 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration. We estimated the economic impact to individuals of meeting these targets for human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, visceral leishmaniasis and Chagas disease, NTDs controlled or eliminated by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM)., Methods: A systematic literature review identified information on productivity loss and out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) related to these NTDs, which were combined with projections of the number of people suffering from each NTD, country and year for 2011-2020 and 2021-2030. The ideal scenario in which the WHO's 2020 targets are met was compared with a counterfactual scenario that assumed the situation of 1990 stayed unaltered. Economic benefit equaled the difference between the two scenarios. Values are reported in 2005 US$, purchasing power parity-adjusted, discounted at 3% per annum from 2010. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to quantify the degree of uncertainty around the base-case impact estimate., Results: The total global productivity gained for the four IDM-NTDs was I$ 23.1 (I$ 15.9 -I$ 34.0) billion in 2011-2020 and I$ 35.9 (I$ 25.0 -I$ 51.9) billion in 2021-2030 (2.5th and 97.5th percentiles in brackets), corresponding to US$ 10.7 billion (US$ 7.4 -US$ 15.7) and US$ 16.6 billion (US$ 11.6 -US$ 24.0). Reduction in OPPs was I$ 14 billion (US$ 6.7 billion) and I$ 18 billion (US$ 10.4 billion) for the same periods., Conclusions: We faced important limitations to our work, such as finding no OPPs for leprosy. We had to combine limited data from various sources, heterogeneous background, and of variable quality. Nevertheless, based on conservative assumptions and subsequent uncertainty analyses, we estimate that the benefits of achieving the targets are considerable. Under plausible scenarios, the economic benefits far exceed the necessary investments by endemic country governments and their development partners. Given the higher frequency of NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in the effort to improve well-being, distribute the world's prosperity more equitably and reduce inequity.

Results of cost effectiveness analyses (CEA) studies are most useful for decision makers if they face only one constraint: the health care budget. However, in practice, decision makers wishing to use the results of CEA studies may face multiple resource constraints relating to, for instance, constraints in health care inputs such as a shortage of skilled labour. The presence of multiple resource constraints influences the decision rules of CEA and limits the usefulness of traditional CEA studies for decision makers. The goal of this paper is to illustrate how results of CEA can be interpreted and used in case a decision maker faces a health care input constraint. We set up a theoretical model describing the optimal allocation of the health care budget in the presence of a health care input constraint. Insights derived from that model were used to analyse a stylized example based on a decision about a surgical robot as well as a published cost effectiveness study on eye care services in Zambia. Our theoretical model shows that applying default decision rules in the presence of a health care input constraint leads to suboptimal decisions but that there are ways of preserving the traditional decision rules of CEA by reweighing different cost categories. The examples illustrate how such adjustments can be made, and makes clear that optimal decisions depend crucially on such adjustments. We conclude that it is possible to use the results of cost effectiveness studies in the presence of health care input constraints if results are properly adjusted., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: For telemonitoring to support care coordination, a sound business model is conditional. The aim of this study is to explore the systemic and economic differences in care coordination via business-to-business and business-to-consumer models for telemonitoring patients with chronic diseases., Methods: We performed a literature search in order to design the business-to-business and business-to-consumer telemonitoring models, and to assess the design elements and themes by applying the activity system theory, and describe the transaction costs in each model. The design elements are content, structure, and governance, while the design themes are novelty, lock-in, complementarities, and efficiency. In the transaction cost analysis, we looked into all the elements of a transaction in both models., Results: Care coordination in the business-to-business model is designed to be organized between the places of activity, rather than the participants in the activity. The design of the business-to-business model creates a firm lock-in but for a limited time. In the business-to-consumer model, the interdependencies are to be found between the persons in the care process and not between the places of care. The differences between the models were found in both the design elements and the design themes., Discussion: Care coordination in the business-to-business and business-to-consumer models for telemonitoring chronic diseases differs in principle in terms of design elements and design themes. Based on the theoretical models, the transaction costs could potentially be lower in the business-to-consumer model than in the business-to-business, which could be a promoting economic principle for the implementation of telemonitoring.

Background: The purpose of this study is to assess the Business-to-Consumer (B2C) model for telemonitoring patients with Chronic Heart Failure (CHF) by analysing the value it creates, both for organizations or ventures that provide telemonitoring services based on it, and for society., Methods: The business model assessment was based on the following categories: caveats, venture type, six-factor alignment, strategic market assessment, financial viability, valuation analysis, sustainability, societal impact, and technology assessment. The venture valuation was performed for three jurisdictions (countries) - Singapore, the Netherlands and the United States - in order to show the opportunities in a small, medium-sized, and large country (i.e. population)., Results: The business model assessment revealed that B2C telemonitoring is viable and profitable in the Innovating in Healthcare Framework. Analysis of the ecosystem revealed an average-to-excellent fit with the six factors. The structure and financing fit was average, public policy and technology alignment was good, while consumer alignment and accountability fit was deemed excellent. The financial prognosis revealed that the venture is viable and profitable in Singapore and the Netherlands but not in the United States due to relatively high salary inputs., Conclusions: The B2C model in telemonitoring CHF potentially creates value for patients, shareholders of the service provider, and society. However, the validity of the results could be improved, for instance by using a peer-reviewed framework, a systematic literature search, case-based cost/efficiency inputs, and varied scenario inputs.

Objective: To assess the influence of disease activity of patients with rheumatoid arthritis on treatment choices of rheumatologists in countries with restricted access to expensive, innovative drugs., Methods: Rheumatologists from Hungary, Romania and UK were invited to complete two consecutive discrete choice experiments with hypothetical drug treatments for two different patient profiles: high and moderate disease activity. Rheumatologists were asked to choose repeatedly between two unlabelled treatment options that differed in five attributes: efficacy (expected improvement and achieved disease activity state), safety (probability of serious adverse events), patient's preference (level of agreement), total medication costs and cost-effectiveness. A heteroscedastic discrete choice model using interaction terms between attribute levels and patient profiles (binary variable) was used to assess the preferences of rheumatologists towards each attribute and the influence of the patient profile., Results: Overall, 148 rheumatologists completed the survey (46% females, mean age 49 years, 49% academic). For both patient profiles, efficacy dominated the treatment choice over patient's preference, safety and economic aspects. However, for patients with high compared with moderate disease activity, the importance of drug efficacy significantly increased (from 48% for moderate to 57% for high disease activity), whereas the importance of patient's preference significantly decreased (from 15% to 11%). No significant differences were observed for economic and safety considerations., Conclusion: Rheumatologists were willing to give up some efficacy to account for patient's preference when choosing treatments for patients with moderate compared to high disease activity. Disease activity however did not influence importance of economic aspects in treatment choices., Competing Interests: Competing interests: MH contributed during an unpaid extended maternity leave (2013-2016) agreed with Hexal AG, Germany. Related to the topic of this study, all other co-authors have no disclosures to declare.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited Janssen, the company manufacturing abiraterone acetate (AA; tradename Zytiga ® ), to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of AA in combination with prednisone/prednisolone (AAP) compared with watchful waiting (i.e. best supportive care [BSC]) for chemotherapy-naïve patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd (KSR), in collaboration with Maastricht University Medical Center, was commissioned as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper presents a summary of the company submission (CS), the ERG report, subsequent addenda, and the development of the NICE guidance for the use of this drug in England and Wales by the Appraisal Committee (AC). The ERG produced a critical review of the clinical and cost effectiveness of AAP based on the CS. An important question in this appraisal was, according to the ERG, whether AAP followed by docetaxel is more effective than BSC followed by docetaxel. In the COU-AA-302 trial, 239 of 546 (43.8 %) AAP patients and 304 of 542 (56.1 %) BSC patients received docetaxel as subsequent therapy, following AA or placebo. The results for this specific group of patients were not presented in the CS; therefore, the ERG asked the company to provide these data in the clarification letter; however, these data were presented as commercial-in-confidence and cannot therefore be reported here. The ERG's critical assessment of the company's economic evaluation highlighted a number of concerns, including (a) not using the intention-to-treat (ITT) population; (b) inconsistencies in estimating prediction equations; (c) not fully incorporating the impact of adverse events; (d) incorrectly incorporating the new patient access scheme (PAS); and (e) the assumption that AA non-compliance leads to recoverable drug costs. Although some of these issues were adjusted in the ERG base case, the ERG could not estimate the impact of all of these issues, and thus acknowledges that there are still uncertainties concerning the cost-effectiveness evidence. With the exception of the ERG's preference for using the ITT population, the AC agreed with the approach taken in the ERG base case. The original company and ERG base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were £46,722 and £57,688 per QALY gained, respectively; these changed to £28,563 and £38,061 per QALY gained, respectively, in the revised base cases applying a new PAS. Regarding the end-of-life criteria, after 24 months approximately 63 % of patients in the control group of the COU-AA-302 trial were still alive, and the median survival was 30.1 months (95 % CI 27.3-34.1). Therefore, it is unlikely that life expectancy would be less than 24 months. The AC stated that the most plausible ICER is likely between £28,600 and £32,800 per QALY gained, and concluded that AAP at this stage in the treatment pathway did not meet the end-of-life criterion for short life expectancy. Moreover, in March 2016, the AC produced the final guidance, stating that AAP is recommended, within its marketing authorisation, as an option for treating mCRPC., Competing Interests: Compliance with Ethical Standards Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme (see the HTA programme website for further project information [http://www.hta.ac.uk]). This summary of the ERG report was compiled after NICE issued the FAD. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of NICE or the Department of Health. Conflict of interest Bram Ramaekers, Rob Riemsma, Florian Tomini, Thea van Asselt, Sohan Deshpande, Steven Duffy, Nigel Armstrong, Johan Severens, Jos Kleijnen, and Manuela A. Joore have no conflicts of interest to declare. Contributions of authors All authors have commented on the submitted manuscript and have given their approval for the final version to be published. Rob Riemsma, Sohan Deshpande and Jos Kleijnen reviewed the clinical-effectiveness evidence; Steven Duffy reviewed the search methods; and Bram Ramaekers, Florian Tomini, Thea van Asselt, Nigel Armstrong, Johan Severens, and Manuela Joore reviewed the cost-effectiveness evidence. Bram Ramaekers acts as overall guarantor for the manuscript. This summary has not been externally peer reviewed by PharmacoEconomics.

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and trachoma represent the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). They can be controlled or eliminated by means of safe and cost-effective interventions delivered through programs of Mass Drug Administration (MDA)-also named Preventive Chemotherapy (PCT). The WHO defined targets for NTD control/elimination by 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration, which, if achieved, would result in dramatic health gains. We estimated the potential economic benefit of achieving these targets, focusing specifically on productivity and out-of-pocket payments., Methods: Productivity loss was calculated by combining disease frequency with productivity loss from the disease, from the perspective of affected individuals. Productivity gain was calculated by deducting the total loss expected in the target achievement scenario from the loss in a counterfactual scenario where it was assumed the pre-intervention situation in 1990 regarding NTDs would continue unabated until 2030. Economic benefits from out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) were calculated similarly. Benefits are reported in 2005 US$ (purchasing power parity-adjusted and discounted at 3% per annum from 2010). Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the influence of changes in input parameters., Results: The economic benefit from productivity gain was estimated to be I$251 billion in 2011-2020 and I$313 billion in 2021-2030, considerably greater than the total OPPs averted of I$0.72 billion and I$0.96 billion in the same periods. The net benefit is expected to be US$ 27.4 and US$ 42.8 for every dollar invested during the same periods. Impact varies between NTDs and regions, since it is determined by disease prevalence and extent of disease-related productivity loss., Conclusion: Achieving the PCT-NTD targets for 2020 will yield significant economic benefits to affected individuals. Despite large uncertainty, these benefits far exceed the investment required by governments and their development partners within all reasonable scenarios. Given the concentration of the NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in efforts to share the world's prosperity and reduce inequity.

Objective: To evaluate to what extent rheumatologists consider economic aspects and patients' preferences when choosing drug treatments in patients with active RA., Methods: In a discrete choice experiment, rheumatologists were asked to choose between two unlabelled drug treatment options for a hypothetical RA patient with moderate disease activity who failed two synthetic DMARDs. Attributes and levels of drug treatments were selected based on existing literature, rheumatologists' opinion and expert consensus. This resulted in five attributes each described by three levels: efficacy (level of improvement and achieved state on DAS28), safety (probability of a serious adverse event), patients' preference (level of agreement), annual medication costs and cost-effectiveness (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio). An efficient experimental design generated 14 treatment choices and a random parameter logit model estimated the relative importance of attributes., Results: Sixty-three rheumatologists from the Netherlands contributed to the analysis; 44% were female and mean (sd) age was 49 (8) years. Drug efficacy had the strongest relative contribution to the drug choice (44%) followed by medication costs (24%), patients' preference (17%) and cost-effectiveness (14%). Patients' preferences were most relevant when patients disliked a proposed treatment. The risk of serious but uncommon or rare side effects only played a minor role in the treatment choice (1%)., Conclusion: In addition to drug efficacy, rheumatologists account for economic aspects and for patients' preferences when deciding on drugs. Decisions are more influenced by absolute costs than relative cost-effectiveness and by patients' disliking as opposed to favouring the treatment., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

In Europe, 1-3% of the population suffers from atrial fibrillation (AF) and has increased stroke risk. By 2060 a doubling in number of cases and great burden in managing this medical condition are expected. This paper offers an overview of data on epidemiology and management of AF and stroke in four European countries as well as the interconnection between these dimensions. A search index was developed to access multiple scientific and "grey" literatures. Information was prioritised based on strength of evidence and date. Information on country reports was double-checked with national experts. The overall prevalence of AF is consistent across countries. France has the lowest stroke incidence and mortality, followed by Netherland and UK, while Romania has higher rates. GPs or medical specialists are responsible for AF treatment; exception are the special thrombosis services in the Netherlands. Prevention measurements are only present in UK through screening programs. Although international and national guidelines are available, undertreatment is present in all countries. Despite differences in healthcare systems and management of AF, epidemiology is comparable between three of the countries. Romania is an outlier, by being limited in data accessibility. This knowledge can contribute to improved AF care in Europe.

Background: Limited information is available on short-term prognosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) in addition to routine diagnostic workup., Objective: This study aims to investigate the added prognostic value of AD CSF biomarkers., Methods: In a prospective cohort study, clinical experts predicted cognitive and functional symptoms in 114 memory clinic patients by assessing comprehensive routine diagnostic test information (patient history, and physical, neurological, psychiatric, neuropsychological, and MRI examinations), without and with CSF biomarkers. The reference standard was the 'observed clinically relevant decline' using baseline and 1- and 2-year follow-up information., Results: Decline over a 2-year period was observed in 51% of all participants (3% in SMC, 48% in MCI, 90% in mild dementia). In the total sample, the accuracy of predicted decline did not differ significantly between routine assessment without (79% correctly predicted) and with (74% correctly predicted) CSF biomarkers. Subgroup analyses revealed 25 (83%) correct predictions in SMC, 30 (68%) in MCI, and 35 (88%) in dementia without the use of CSF; and 21 (70%), 27 (61%), and 36 (90%), respectively, with the use of CSF in addition to the routine assessment., Conclusion: AD CSF biomarkers did not increase accuracy of 2-year prognosis of cognitive and functional decline when added to routine diagnostic workup. This suggests that the standard diagnostic workup without CSF biomarkers allows fairly accurate predictions for the short-term course of symptoms. Routine AD biomarkers in CSF have limited prognostic value over 2 years in persons with a suspected cognitive disorder.

Background: Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) not only cause health and life expectancy loss, but can also lead to economic consequences including reduced ability to work. This article describes a systematic literature review of the effect on the economic productivity of individuals affected by one of the five worldwide most prevalent NTDs: lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths (ascariasis, trichuriasis, and hookworm infection) and trachoma. These diseases are eligible to preventive chemotherapy (PCT)., Methodology/principal Findings: Eleven bibliographic databases were searched using different names of all NTDs and various keywords relating to productivity. Additional references were identified through reference lists from relevant papers. Of the 5316 unique publications found in the database searches, thirteen papers were identified for lymphatic filariasis, ten for onchocerciasis, eleven for schistosomiasis, six for soil-transmitted helminths and three for trachoma. Besides the scarcity in publications reporting the degree of productivity loss, this review revealed large variation in the estimated productivity loss related to these NTDs., Conclusions: It is clear that productivity is affected by NTDs, although the actual impact depends on the type and severity of the NTD as well as on the context where the disease occurs. The largest impact on productivity loss of individuals affected by one of these diseases seems to be due to blindness from onchocerciasis and severe schistosomiasis manifestations; productivity loss due to trachoma-related blindness has never been studied directly. However, productivity loss at an individual level might differ from productivity loss at a population level because of differences in the prevalence of NTDs. Variation in estimated productivity loss between and within diseases is caused by differences in research methods and setting. Publications should provide enough information to enable readers to assess the quality and relevance of the study for their purposes.

Purpose: Fluoropyrimidines are frequently prescribed anticancer drugs. A polymorphism in the fluoropyrimidine metabolizing enzyme dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD; ie, DPYD*2A) is strongly associated with fluoropyrimidine-induced severe and life-threatening toxicity. This study determined the feasibility, safety, and cost of DPYD*2A genotype-guided dosing., Patients and Methods: Patients intended to be treated with fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy were prospectively genotyped for DPYD*2A before start of therapy. Variant allele carriers received an initial dose reduction of ≥ 50% followed by dose titration based on tolerance. Toxicity was the primary end point and was compared with historical controls (ie, DPYD*2A variant allele carriers receiving standard dose described in literature) and with DPYD*2A wild-type patients treated with the standard dose in this study. Secondary end points included a model-based cost analysis, as well as pharmacokinetic and DPD enzyme activity analyses., Results: A total of 2,038 patients were prospectively screened for DPYD*2A, of whom 22 (1.1%) were heterozygous polymorphic. DPYD*2A variant allele carriers were treated with a median dose-intensity of 48% (range, 17% to 91%). The risk of grade ≥ 3 toxicity was thereby significantly reduced from 73% (95% CI, 58% to 85%) in historical controls (n = 48) to 28% (95% CI, 10% to 53%) by genotype-guided dosing (P < .001); drug-induced death was reduced from 10% to 0%. Adequate treatment of genotype-guided dosing was further demonstrated by a similar incidence of grade ≥ 3 toxicity compared with wild-type patients receiving the standard dose (23%; P = .64) and by similar systemic fluorouracil (active drug) exposure. Furthermore, average total treatment cost per patient was lower for screening (€2,772 [$3,767]) than for nonscreening (€2,817 [$3,828]), outweighing screening costs., Conclusion: DPYD*2A is strongly associated with fluoropyrimidine-induced severe and life-threatening toxicity. DPYD*2A genotype-guided dosing results in adequate systemic drug exposure and significantly improves safety of fluoropyrimidine therapy for the individual patient. On a population level, upfront genotyping seemed cost saving., (© 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.)

Background: Systematic reviews of cost-effectiveness analyses summarize results and describe study characteristics. Variability in the study results is often explained qualitatively or based on sensitivity analyses of individual studies. However, variability due to input parameters and study characteristics (e.g., funding or study quality) is often not statistically explained. As a case study, a systematic review on the cost-effectiveness of drug-eluting stents (DES) versus bare-metal stents (BMS) using meta-regression analyses is performed to explore the usefulness of such methods compared with conventional review methods., Methods: We attempted to identify and review all modelling studies published until January 2012 that compared costs and consequences of DES versus BMS. We extracted general study information (e.g., funding), modelling methods, values of input parameters, and quality of the model using the Philips et al. checklist. Associations between study characteristics and the incremental costs and effectiveness of individual analyses were explored using regression analyses corrected for study ID., Results: Sixteen eligible studies were identified, with a combined total of 508 analyses. The overall quality of the models was moderate (59% ± 15%). This study showed associations (e.g., type of lesion) that were expected (based on individual studies), however the meta-regression analyses revealed also unpredicted associations: e.g., model quality was negatively associated with repeat revascularizations avoided., Conclusions: Meta-regressions can be of added value, identifying significant associations that could not be identified using conventional review methods or by sensitivity analyses of individual studies. Furthermore, this study underlines the need to examine input parameters and perform a quality check of studies when interpreting the results.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of lenalidomide (Celgene) to submit evidence of the clinical and cost effectiveness of the drug for treating adults with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) associated with deletion 5q cytogenetic abnormality, as part of the Institute's single technology appraisal (STA) process. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd (KSR), in collaboration with Erasmus University Rotterdam, was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper describes the company's submission, the ERG review, and the NICE's subsequent decisions. The ERG reviewed the evidence for clinical and cost effectiveness of the technology, as submitted by the manufacturer to the NICE. The ERG searched for relevant additional evidence and validated the manufacturer's decision analytic model to examine the robustness of the cost-effectiveness results. Clinical effectiveness was obtained from a three-arm, European, randomized, phase III trial among red blood cell (RBC) transfusion-dependent patients with low-/intermediate-1-risk del5q31 MDS. The primary endpoint was RBC independence for ≥26 weeks, and was reached by a higher proportion of patients in the lenalidomide 10 and 5 mg groups compared with placebo (56.1 and 42.6 vs 5.9 %, respectively; both p < 0.001). The option of dose adjustments after 16 weeks due to dose-limiting toxicities or lack of response made long-term effectiveness estimates unreliable, e.g. overall survival (OS). The de novo model of the manufacturer included a Markov state-transition cost-utility model implemented in Microsoft Excel. The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the manufacturer was £56,965. The ERG assessment indicated that the modeling structure represented the course of the disease; however, a few errors were identified and some of the input parameters were challenged. In response to the appraisal documentation, the company revised the economic model, which increased the ICER to £68,125 per quality-adjusted life-year. The NICE Appraisal Committee (AC) did not recommend lenalidomide as a cost-effective treatment. Subsequently, the manufacturer submitted a Patient Access Scheme (PAS) that provided lenalidomide free of charge for patients who remained on treatment after 26 cycles. This PAS improved the ICER to £25,300, although the AC considered the proportion of patients who received treatment beyond 26 cycles, and hence the ICER, to be uncertain. Nevertheless, the AC accepted a commitment from the manufacturer to publish, once available, data on the proportion of patients eligible for the PAS, and believed this provided reassurance that lenalidomide was a cost-effective treatment for low- or intermediate-1-risk MDS patients.

Objective: To use contingent valuation (CV) to derive individual consumer values for both health and broader benefits of a public-health intervention directed at lifestyle behaviour change (LBC) and to examine the feasibility and validity of the method., Method: Participants of a lifestyle intervention trial (n = 515) were invited to complete an online CV survey. Respondents (n = 312) expressed willingness to invest money and time for changes in life expectancy, health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and broader quality of life aspects. Internal validity was tested for by exploring associations between explanatory variables (i.e. income, paid work, experience and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases) and willingness to invest, and by examining ordering effects and respondents' sensitivity to the scope of the benefits., Results: The majority of respondents (94.3%) attached value to benefits of LBC, and 87.4% were willing to invest both money and time. Respondents were willing to invest more for improvements in HRQOL (€42/month; 3 h/week) and broader quality of life aspects (€40/month; 2.6 h/week) than for improvements in life expectancy (€24/month; 2 h/week). Protest answers were limited (3%) and findings regarding internal validity were mixed., Conclusion: The importance of broader quality of life outcomes to consumers suggests that these outcomes are relevant to be considered in the decision making. Our research showed that CV is a feasible method to value both health and broader outcomes of LBC, but generalizability to other areas of public health still needs to be examined. Mixed evidence regarding internal validity pleads for caution to use CV as only the base for decision making., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Sequential treatment of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) that includes tumour necrosis factor-α antagonists (anti-TNF agents) has been applied in most of the Western countries. Existing cost-effectiveness (CE) models almost exclusively presented the incremental CE of anti-TNF agents using a closed cohort while budget impact studies are mainly lacking. Notwithstanding, information on impact on total population health and societal budget as well as on actual incremental CE for a given decision time span are important for decision makers. This study aimed at quantifying, for different decision time spans starting from January 1, 2014 in the Dutch society, (1) impact of sequential drug treatment strategies without and with inclusion of anti-TNF agents (Strategies 1 and 2, respectively) on total population health and societal cost, and (2) the actual incremental CE of Strategy 2 compared to Strategy 1., Methods: Dynamic population modelling was used to capture total population health and cost, and the actual incremental CE. Distinguishing the prevalent AS population on January 1, 2014 and the incident AS cohorts in the subsequent 20 years, the model tracked individually an actual number of AS patients until death or end of the simulation time. During the simulation, data on patient characteristics, history of drug use, costs and health at discrete time points were generated. In Strategy 1, five nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) were available but anti-TNF agents withdrawn. In Strategy 2, five NSAIDs and two anti-TNF agents continued to be available., Results: The predicted size of the prevalent AS population in the Dutch society varied within the range of 67,145-69,957 with 44-46 % of the patients receiving anti-TNF agents over the period 2014-2034. The use of anti-TNF agents resulted in an increase in the annual drug costs (168.54-205.28 million Euros), but at the same time caused a decrease in the annual productivity costs (12.58-31.21 million Euros) and in annual costs of healthcare categories other than drugs (7.23-11.90 million Euros). Incremental cost (Euros) per QALY gained in Strategy 2 compared to Strategy 1 corresponding to decision time spans of 5, 10, 15 and 20 years improved slightly from 75,379 to 67,268, 63,938 and 61,129, respectively. At willingness-to-pay thresholds of 118,656, 112,067, 110,188 and 110,512 Euros, it was 99 % certain that Strategy 2 was cost-effective for decision time spans of 5, 10, 15 and 20, respectively., Conclusions: Using the dynamic population approach, the present model can project real-time data to inform a healthcare system decision that affects all actual number of AS patients eligible for anti-TNF agents within different decision time spans. The predicted total population costs of different categories in the present study can help plan the organization of the healthcare resources based on the national budget for the disease.

Background: Diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) is considered to be one of the most common and costly diabetic complications. The approach unanimously recommended for patients with DFU is treatment by a multidisciplinary foot care team, which in Russia mainly is limited to few federal and regional hospitals. Currently, financing schemes for medical institutions are changing, thus raising the issue of setting adequate tariffs., Objective: To identify the cost of treatment in the specialized diabetic foot department and determinants of variation in cost among individual patients with DFU in the Russian setting from the perspective of a health care organization., Methods: We collected data on treatment cost per admission to the Diabetic Foot Department of the Endocrinology Scientific Center and information on patients' characteristics derived from medical records. Data on costs were analyzed, and descriptive statistics are reported. A standard multiple regression analysis was performed to identify the main drivers of treatment cost for patients with DFU., Results: The mean treatment cost was €3051. The mean cost of treatment for patients with DFU was significantly higher than that for diabetic patients without this complication. The most relevant predictors of the costs of treatment for patients with DFU were surgery provided and length of stay in hospital., Conclusions: The cost for treatment of DFU by a multidisciplinary team in the federal medical institution was substantially higher than basic medical insurance tariff for this disease. Because revascularization procedures appeared to be the main cost driver, our results stress the need for careful implementation of this type of treatment for patients with DFU., (Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness, from a health care perspective, of adding rituximab to fludarabine and cyclophosphamide scheme (FCR versus FC) for treatment-naïve and refractory/relapsed Ukrainian patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia. A decision-analytic Markov cohort model with three health states and 1-month cycle time was developed and run within a life time horizon. Data from two multinational, prospective, open-label Phase 3 studies were used to assess patients' survival. While utilities were generalized from UK data, local resource utilization and disease-associated treatment, hospitalization, and side effect costs were applied. The alternative scenario was performed to assess the impact of lower life expectancy of the general population in Ukraine on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for treatment-naïve patients. One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the results. The ICER (in US dollars) of treating chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients with FCR versus FC is US$8,704 per quality-adjusted life year gained for treatment-naïve patients and US$11,056 for refractory/relapsed patients. When survival data were modified to the lower life expectancy of the general population in Ukraine, the ICER for treatment-naïve patients was higher than US$13,000. This value is higher than three times the current gross domestic product per capita in Ukraine. Sensitivity analyses have shown a high impact of rituximab costs and a moderate impact of differences in utilities on the ICER. Furthermore, probabilistic sensitivity analyses have shown that for refractory/relapsed patients the probability of FCR being cost-effective is higher than for treatment-naïve patients and is close to one if the threshold is higher than US$15,000. State coverage of rituximab treatment may be considered a cost-effective treatment for the Ukrainian population under conditions of economic stability, cost-effectiveness threshold growth, or rituximab price negotiations.

Introduction: The study aimed to determine the room for improvement of a perfect cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker and the societal incremental net monetary benefit of CSF in subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) assuming a hypothetical disease-modifying Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatment., Methods: A decision model compared current practice to a perfect biomarker and to two strategies positioning CSF as add-on test when current practice concluded the presence or absence of AD., Results: The simulated MCI population was aged on average 68.3 and 49% had AD. The room for improvement by the perfect CSF test was 0.39 quality adjusted life years, €33,622 ($43,372) savings, 2.0 potential beneficial treatment years, and 1.3-year delay in dementia conversion., Discussion: The results indicated more potential benefit from a biomarker positioned to verify subjects who are not expected to have AD (i.e., to prevent undertreatment) rather than to verify subjects expected to have AD (prevent overtreatment). Sensitivity analyses explored different CSF positions., (Copyright © 2015 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: An economic value calculation was performed to estimate the lifetime net present value of in vitro fertilization (IVF) in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan., Methods: Net lifetime tax revenues were used to represent governmental benefits accruing from a hypothetical cohort of an IVF population born in 2009 using the methodology of generational accounting. Governmental expenses related to this population included social benefits, education and health care, unemployment support, and pensions. Where available, country-specific data referencing official sources were applied., Results: The average health care cost needed to achieve one additional birth from the governmental perspective varied from $2,599 in Ukraine to $5,509 in Belarus. The net present value from the population born using IVF was positive in all countries: for Ukraine ($9,839), Belarus ($21,702), and Kazakhstan ($2,295). The break-even costs of drugs and supplies per IVF procedure is expected to be $3,870, $8,530, and $1,780, respectively. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses based on 5,000 simulations show that the average net present value per person remains positive: $1,894±$7,619, $27,925±$12,407, and $17,229±$24,637 in Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, respectively., Conclusion: Financing IVF may represent a good investment in terms of governmental financial returns, even in lower-income countries with state-financed health care systems such as Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

Background: Most studies on birth settings investigate the association between planned place of birth at the start of labor and birth outcomes and intervention rates. To optimize maternity care it also is important to pay attention to the entire process of pregnancy and childbirth. This study explores the association between the initial preferred place of birth and model of care, and the course of pregnancy and labor in low-risk nulliparous women in the Netherlands., Methods: As part of a Dutch prospective cohort study (2007-2011), we compared medical indications during pregnancy and birth outcomes of 576 women who initially preferred a home birth (n = 226), a midwife-led hospital birth (n = 168) or an obstetrician-led hospital birth (n = 182). Data were obtained by a questionnaire before 20 weeks of gestation and by medical records. Analyses were performed according to the initial preferred place of birth., Results: Low-risk nulliparous women who preferred a home birth with midwife-led care were less likely to be diagnosed with a medical indication during pregnancy compared to women who preferred a birth with obstetrician-led care (OR 0.41 95% CI 0.25-0.66). Preferring a birth with midwife-led care - both at home and in hospital - was associated with lower odds of induced labor (OR 0.51 95% CI 0.28-0.95 respectively OR 0.42 95% CI 0.21-0.85) and epidural analgesia (OR 0.32 95% CI 0.18-0.56 respectively OR 0.34 95% CI 0.19-0.62) compared to preferring a birth with obstetrician-led care. In addition, women who preferred a home birth were less likely to experience augmentation of labor (OR 0.54 95% CI 0.32-0.93) and narcotic analgesia (OR 0.41 95% CI 0.21-0.79) compared to women who preferred a birth with obstetrician-led care. We observed no significant association between preferred place of birth and mode of birth., Conclusions: Nulliparous women who initially preferred a home birth were less likely to be diagnosed with a medical indication during pregnancy. Women who initially preferred a birth with midwife-led care - both at home and in hospital - experienced lower rates of interventions during labor. Although some differences can be attributed to the model of care, we suggest that characteristics and attitudes of women themselves also play an important role.

Objectives: The aim of this study is to analyze the quality and transferability issues reported in published peer-reviewed English-language economic evaluations based in healthcare settings of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) and former Soviet countries., Methods: A systematic search of economic evaluations of healthcare interventions was performed for Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia, Georgia, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Republic of Moldova, Romania, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovenia, and Ukraine. The included studies were assessed according to their characteristics, quality (using Drummond's checklist), use of local data, and the transferability of inputs and results, if addressed., Results: Most of the thirty-four economic evaluations identified were conducted from a healthcare or payer perspective (74 percent), with 47 percent of studies focusing on infectious diseases. The least frequently and transparently addressed parameters were the items' stated perspectives, relevant costs included, accurately measured costs in appropriate units, outcomes and costs credibly valued, and uncertainties addressed. Local data were often used to assess unit costs, baseline risk, and resource usage, while jurisdiction-specific utilities were included in only one study. Only 32 percent of relevant studies discussed the limitations of using foreign data, and 36 percent of studies discussed the transferability of their own study results to other jurisdictions., Conclusions: Transferability of the results is not sufficiently discussed in published economic evaluations. To simplify the transferability of studies to other jurisdictions, the following should be comprehensively addressed: uncertainty, impact of influential parameters, and data transferability. The transparency of reporting should be improved.

There is increasing discussion in the Netherlands about the introduction of a threshold value for the costs per extra year of life when reimbursing costs of new drugs. The Medicines Committee ('Commissie Geneesmiddelen'), a division of the Netherlands National Healthcare Institute ('Zorginstituut Nederland'), advises on reimbursement of costs of new drugs. This advice is based upon the determination of therapeutic value of the drug and the results of economic evaluations. Mathematical models that predict future costs and effectiveness are often used in economic evaluations; these models can vary greatly in transparency and quality due to author assumptions. Standardisation of cost-effectiveness models is one solution to overcome the unwanted variation in quality. Discussions about the introduction of a threshold value can only be meaningful if all involved are adequately informed, and by high quality in cost-effectiveness research and, particularly, economic evaluations. Collaboration and discussion between medical specialists, patients or patient organisations, health economists and policy makers, both in development of methods and in standardisation, are essential to improve the quality of decision making.

Economic evaluations have become an essential part of reimbursement decisions in a wide range of countries. To ensure high quality, a variety of checklists with different purposes have been developed and implemented enabling assessment of these evaluations. Three of these checklists are most frequently used and are recommended by the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews for critical appraisal (Drummond, CHEC and Philips). Every checklist is developed with a different purpose having, for example, a focus on reporting or conducting and on modeling or trial-based evaluations. This review outlines the heterogeneity in choice and implementation of these quality checklists in an incorrect manner. This ultimately results in under- and even possibly overestimation of quality of included economic evaluations. More guidance in selecting correct checklists suiting the purpose of the quality check is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, it appears that current checklists are lacking detailed disease-specific guidance resulting in models not correctly reflecting disease progression. Therefore, outcomes indicate that the problem of the wide variability of methodological choices is prevalent in some other disease areas too, regardless of the availability of quality checklists. More international collaboration should therefore be initiated in developing and publishing standardized and open source disease-specific reference models to overcome this problem.

Purpose: To estimate the risk of blindness in patients with ocular hypertension (OHT) using an appropriate model and current empirical data., Design: A Markov model with data from a systematic literature review., Methods: A Markov model with 3 health states was built: OHT, primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), and unilateral blindness. Literature was searched for reports on conversion from OHT to POAG and progression from POAG to blindness, to estimate a range of annual conversion and progression probabilities. The model had a cycle length of 1 year., Results: The 15-year risk estimates ranged from 3.1% to 9.4% in untreated, and from 0.9% to 8.6% in treated patients with OHT. The ranges were the result of differences in patient populations, treatments, and outcome definitions in currently available empirical data., Conclusions: The best estimates of the 15-year risk of unilateral blindness in patients with OHT, based on the currently available empirical data and an appropriate model, show that the risk is <10%.

Background: General recommendations for a reference case for economic studies in rheumatic diseases were published in 2002 in an initiative to improve the comparability of cost-effectiveness studies in the field. Since then, economic evaluations in osteoarthritis (OA) continue to show considerable heterogeneity in methodological approach., Objectives: To develop a reference case specific for economic studies in OA, including the standard optimal care, with which to judge new pharmacologic and non-pharmacologic interventions., Methods: Four subgroups of an ESCEO expert working group on economic assessments (13 experts representing diverse aspects of clinical research and/or economic evaluations) were charged with producing lists of recommendations that would potentially improve the comparability of economic analyses in OA: outcome measures, comparators, costs and methodology. These proposals were discussed and refined during a face-to-face meeting in 2013. They are presented here in the format of the recommendations of the recently published Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement, so that an initiative on economic analysis methodology might be consolidated with an initiative on reporting standards., Results: Overall, three distinct reference cases are proposed, one for each hand, knee and hip OA; with diagnostic variations in the first two, giving rise to different treatment options: interphalangeal or thumb-based disease for hand OA and the presence or absence of joint malalignment for knee OA. A set of management strategies is proposed, which should be further evaluated to help establish a consensus on the "standard optimal care" in each proposed reference case. The recommendations on outcome measures, cost itemisation and methodological approaches are also provided., Conclusions: The ESCEO group proposes a set of disease-specific recommendations on the conduct and reporting of economic evaluations in OA that could help the standardisation and comparability of studies that evaluate therapeutic strategies of OA in terms of costs and effectiveness., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The question of how to value lost productivity in economic evaluations has been subject of debate in the past twenty years. According to the Washington panel, lost productivity influences health-related quality of life and should thus be considered a health effect instead of a cost to avoid double counting. Current empirical evidence on the inclusion of income loss when valuing health states is not decisive. We examined the relationship between three aspects of lost productivity (work-status, absenteeism and presenteeism) and patient or social valuation of health-related quality of life (HRQoL)., Methods: Cross-sectional survey data were collected from a total of 830 respondents with a rheumatic disorder from four West-European countries. Health-related quality of life was expressed in either the European societal utility using EQ-5D-3L or the patient valuation using EQ-VAS. The impact of work-status (four categories), absenteeism (absent from paid work during the past three months), and presenteeism (QQ method) on EQ-5D utilities and VAS scores was examined in linear regression analyses taking into account demographic characteristics and disease severity (duration, pain and restriction)., Results: The relationship between work-status, absenteeism or presenteeism and HRQoL was stronger for patient valuation than societal valuation. Compared to work-status and presenteeism the relationship between absenteeism and HRQoL was even less explicit. However, results for all measures of lost productivity are only marginally significant and negligible compared to the influence of disease-related restrictions., Conclusions: This survey study in patients with a rheumatic disorder in four European countries, does not fully support the Washington panel's claim that lost productivity is a significantly related with HRQoL, and this is even more apparent for absenteeism than for work-status and presenteeism. For West-European countries, there is no reason, to include absenteeism in the QALY. Findings need to be confirmed in other disease areas.

Background: Many children stand to benefit from being asthma-free for life with primary (i.e., prenatally started) prevention addressing one environmental exposure in a unifaceted (UF) approach or at least two in a multifaceted (MF) approach. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of primary prevention programmes for Dutch children in a decision-analytic framework., Methods: A decision-analytic tree model analysing healthcare costs and asthma cases prevented was developed to compare usual care (UC) with two UF and three MF programmes on the primary prevention of asthma amongst children. Programmes were evaluated through incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and net monetary benefits. Decision and parameter uncertainty were subjected to value-of-information analyses., Results: The current UC and one of three MF programmes dominated the other alternatives. The MF programme was more costly but also more effective than UC at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 8,209.20/additional asthma case prevented. The value of perfect information to reduce uncertainty was 291.6M at its lowest. Most of the uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness threshold was attributable to the probability and cost estimates for low-risk children., Conclusion: This study supports the feasibility of a structured programme that simultaneously addresses exposure to house dust mites, pet dander, environmental tobacco, and breast-feeding as a cost-effective alternative to UC in the primary prevention of asthma amongst children.

Background: In the absence of a gold standard, a panel of experts can be invited to assign a reference diagnosis for use in research. Available literature offers limited guidance on assembling and working with an expert panel for this purpose. We aimed to develop a protocol for an expert panel consensus diagnosis and evaluated its applicability in a pilot project., Methods: An adjusted Delphi method was used, which started with the assessment of clinical vignettes by 3 experts individually, followed by a consensus discussion meeting to solve diagnostic discrepancies. A panel facilitator ensured that all experts were able to express their views, and encouraged the use of argumentation to arrive at a specific diagnosis, until consensus was reached by all experts. Eleven vignettes of patients suspected of having a primary neurodegenerative disease were presented to the experts. Clinical information was provided stepwise and included medical history, neurological, physical and cognitive function, brain MRI scan, and follow-up assessments over 2 years. After the consensus discussion meeting, the procedure was evaluated by the experts., Results: The average degree of consensus for the reference diagnosis increased from 52% after individual assessment of the vignettes to 94% after the consensus discussion meeting. Average confidence in the diagnosis after individual assessment was 85%. This did not increase after the consensus discussion meeting. The process evaluation led to several recommendations for improvement of the protocol., Conclusion: A protocol for attaining a reference diagnosis based on expert panel consensus was shown feasible in research practice.

Background: Management of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is characterised by a sequence of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and biological response modifiers (BRMs). In most of the Western countries, the drug sequences are determined based on disease activity and treatment history of the patients. A model for realistic patient outcomes should reflect the treatment pathways relevant for patients with specific characteristics., Objective: This study aimed at developing a model that could simulate long-term patient outcomes and cost effectiveness of treatment strategies with and without inclusion of BRMs following a clinical guideline for treatment decisions., Methods: Discrete event simulation taking into account patient characteristics and treatment history was used for model development. Treatment effect on disease activity, costs, health utilities and times to events were estimated using Dutch observational studies. Long-term progression of physical functioning was quantified using a linear mixed-effects model. Costs and health utilities were estimated using two-part models. The treatment strategy recommended by the Dutch Society for Rheumatology where both DMARDs and BRMs were available (Strategy 2) was compared with the treatment strategy without BRMs (Strategy 1). Ten thousand theoretical patients were tracked individually until death. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulations were performed with 1,000 sets of parameters sampled from appropriate probability distributions., Results: The simulated changes over time in disease activity and physical functioning were plausible. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained of Strategy 2 compared with Strategy 1 was 124,011. At a willingness-to-pay threshold higher than 119,167, Strategy 2 dominated Strategy 1 in terms of cost effectiveness but the probability that the Strategy 2 is cost effective never exceeded 0.87., Conclusions: It is possible to model the outcomes of complex treatment strategies based on a clinical guideline for the management of RA. Following the Dutch guideline and using real-life data, inclusion of BRMs in the treatment strategy for RA appeared to be less favourable in our model than in most of the existing models that compared drug sequences independent of patient characteristics and used data from randomised controlled clinical trials. Despite complexity and demand for extensive data, our modelling approach can help to identify the knowledge gaps in clinical guidelines for RA management and priorities for future research.

Purpose: To investigate the long-term health and economic consequences of direct treatment initiation in ocular hypertension patients., Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis with a societal perspective and a lifelong horizon was performed. The primary outcomes were the incremental quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs of direct pressure-lowering treatment for ocular hypertension, compared to a strategy where treatment is postponed until conversion to glaucoma has been observed. We used a decision analytic model based on individual patient simulation to forecast disease progression and treatment decisions in both strategies in a representative heterogeneous patient population and in 18 patient subgroups stratified by initial intraocular pressure and additional risk factors for conversion., Results: The incremental discounted health gain of direct treatment was 0.27 QALYs, whereas the incremental discounted costs were -€ 649 during an average lifetime of 26 years. In the simulations of patient subgroups, the model outcomes moved towards higher health gains and lower incremental costs with increasing risk of conversion in the patient population. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of direct treatment ranged from € 15,425 per QALY gained in the lowest-risk subgroup to dominance in the highest-risk subgroup. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that uncertainty surrounding the model input parameters did not affect the conclusions., Conclusion: Direct, early, pressure-lowering treatment is a dominant cost-effective treatment strategy over a strategy to start the same treatment approach later, after glaucoma has occurred for patients with ocular hypertension. Its implementation and consequences should be discussed with ophthalmologists and individual patients., (© 2013 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)