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Objectives: To determine the incidence of self-reported non-coeliac wheat sensitivity (SR-NCWS) and factors associated with its onset and resolution; to describe the prevalence of factors associated with gluten avoidance., Design: Longitudinal cohort study; analysis of responses to self-administered validated questionnaires (Digestive Health and Wellbeing surveys, 2015 and 2018)., Setting, Participants: Subset of an adult population sample randomly selected in 2015 from the electoral rolls for the Newcastle and Gosford regions of New South Wales., Main Outcome Measures: Prevalence of SR-NCWS (2015, 2018) and incidence and resolution of SR-NCWS, each by demographic and medical factors; prevalence of gluten avoidance and reasons for gluten avoidance (2018)., Results: 1322 of 2185 eligible participants completed the 2018 survey (response rate, 60.5%). The prevalence of SR-NCWS was similar in 2015 (13.8%; 95% CI, 12.0-15.8%) and 2018 (13.9%; 95% CI, 12.1-15.9%); 69 of 1301 respondents (5.3%) reported developing new onset (incident) SR-NCWS between 2015 and 2018 (incidence, 1.8% per year). Incident SR-NCWS was significantly associated with a diagnosis of functional dyspepsia, and negatively associated with being male or older. Gluten avoidance was reported in 2018 by 24.2% of respondents (20.5% partial, 3.8% complete avoidance); general health was the most frequent reason for avoidance (168 of 316 avoiders, 53%). All 13 participants with coeliac disease, 56 of 138 with irritable bowel syndrome (41%), and 69 of 237 with functional dyspepsia (29%) avoided dietary gluten., Conclusions: The prevalence of SR-NCWS was similar in 2015 and 2018. Baseline (2015) and incident SR-NCWS (2018) were each associated with functional gastrointestinal disorders. The number of people avoiding dietary gluten exceeds that of people with coeliac disease or SR-NCWS, and general health considerations and abdominal symptoms are the most frequently reported reasons for avoidance., (© 2020 AMPCo Pty Ltd.)

Non-coeliac gluten or wheat sensitivity (NCG/WS) is a condition characterised by adverse gastrointestinal and/or extra-intestinal symptoms associated with the ingestion of gluten- or wheat-containing foods, in the absence of coeliac disease or wheat allergy. Up to one in 100 people in Australia may have coeliac disease but many more report adverse gastrointestinal and/or extra-intestinal symptoms after eating wheat products. In the absence of validated biomarkers, a diagnosis of NCG/WS can only be made by a double-blind, placebo-controlled, dietary crossover challenge with gluten, which is difficult to apply in clinical practice. Of people self-reporting gluten or wheat sensitivity, only a small proportion (16%) will have reproducible symptoms after a blinded gluten challenge of gluten versus placebo in a crossover dietary trial and fulfil the current consensus criteria for a diagnosis of NCG/WS. A wide range of symptoms are associated with NCG/WS, including gastrointestinal, neurological, psychiatric, rheumatological and dermatological complaints. The pathogenesis of NCG/WS is not well understood, but the innate immune system has been implicated, and there is overlap with coeliac disease and the functional gastrointestinal disorders (irritable bowel syndrome and functional dyspepsia). Identification of NCG/WS is important as gluten-free diets carry risks, are socially restricting and are costlier than regular diets.