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The use of local provenances in restoration, agriculture and forestry has been identified as measure to sustain biological diversity and to improve local productivity. However, the delineation of regional provenances is challenging because it requires the identification of well-defined groups based on spatiogenetic differentiation and/or the evidence of local adaptation. In this study, we investigate genetic variation at 186 AFLP loci in 46 European accessions of the important grassland species Arrhenatherum elatius and ask (1) whether genetic variation within accessions differs between European geographical regions; (2) at which spatial scale populations are structured across Europe and (3) whether putatively adaptive markers contribute to this pattern and whether these markers can be related to climatic site conditions. Basic expectations of population genetics are likely to be altered in autotetraploid species, thus, we adopted a band-based approach to estimate genetic diversity and structuring. Compared to other grasses A. elatius showed high genetic diversity and considerable differentiation among accessions (Phi(ST) = 0.24). Accessions separated in a Western European and a Central/Eastern European group, without further structure within groups. A genome scan approach identified four potentially adaptive loci, whose band frequencies correlated significantly with climatic parameters, suggesting that genetic differentiation in A. elatius is also the result of adaptive processes. Knowledge on adaptive loci might in the long run also help to adapt ecosystems to adverse climate change effects through assisted migration of ecotypes rather than introduction of new species.

We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2 degrees C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally-averaged from 2,995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.