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Large solar coronal mass ejections pose a threat in the near-Earth space. As a cause of extreme periods of space weather, they can damage satellite-based communications and create geomagnetically induced currents in power and energy grids. Further, the solar wind energetic particles can reduce the protecting layer of atmospheric ozone and pose a threat to life on Earth. The large coronal mass ejection (CME) of July 2012, although directed away from the Earth, is often highlighted as a prime example of a potentially devastating super storm. Here we show, based on proton fluxes recorded by the instruments aboard the STEREO-A satellite, that the atmospheric response to the July 2012 event would have been comparable to those of the largest solar proton events of the satellite era. Significant impact on total ozone outside polar regions would require a much larger event, similar to those recorded in historical proxy data sets. Such an extreme event would cause long-term ozone reduction all the way to the equator and increase the size, duration, and depth of the Antarctic ozone hole. The impact would be comparable to predicted drastic and sudden ozone reduction from major volcanic eruptions, regional nuclear conflicts, or long-term stratospheric geoengineering., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

Understanding atmospheric impacts of solar energetic particle precipitation (EPP) remains challenging, from quantification of the response in ozone, to implications on temperature. Both are necessary to understand links between EPP and regional climate variability. Here we use a chemistry-climate model to assess the importance of EPP on late winter/spring polar stratosphere. In transient simulations, the impact on NO y , ozone, and temperature is underestimated when using EPP forcing from the current recommendation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The resulting temperature response is largely masked by overall dynamical variability. An idealised experiment with EPP forcing that reproduces observed levels of NO y results in a significant reduction of ozone (up to 25%), cooling the stratosphere (up to 3 K) during late winter/spring. Our results unravel the inconsistency regarding the temperature response to EPP-driven springtime ozone decrease, and highlight the need for an improved EPP forcing in climate simulations., (© 2022. The Author(s).)