1. Lipidomic Risk Score to Enhance Cardiovascular Risk Stratification for Primary Prevention.
- Author
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Wu J, Giles C, Dakic A, Beyene HB, Huynh K, Wang T, Meikle T, Olshansky G, Salim A, Duong T, Watts GF, Hung J, Hui J, Cadby G, Beilby J, Blangero J, Moses EK, Shaw JE, Magliano DJ, Zhu D, Yang JY, Grieve SM, Wilson A, Chow CK, Vernon ST, Gray MP, Figtree GA, Carrington MJ, Inouye M, Marwick TH, and Meikle PJ
- Subjects
- Humans, Risk Assessment methods, Female, Middle Aged, Male, Lipidomics methods, Aged, Heart Disease Risk Factors, Australia epidemiology, Machine Learning, Adult, Primary Prevention methods, Cardiovascular Diseases prevention & control
- Abstract
Background: Accurate risk stratification is vital for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, traditional tools such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) may underperform within the diverse intermediate-risk group, which includes individuals requiring distinct management strategies., Objectives: This study aimed to develop a lipidomic-enhanced risk score (LRS), specifically targeting risk prediction and reclassification within the intermediate group, benchmarked against the FRS., Methods: The LRS was developed via a machine learning workflow using ridge regression on the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab; n = 10,339). It was externally validated with the Busselton Health Study (n = 4,492), and its predictive utility for coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS)-based outcomes was independently validated in the BioHEART cohort (n = 994)., Results: LRS significantly improved discrimination metrics for the intermediate-risk group in both AusDiab and Busselton Health Study cohorts (all P < 0.001), increasing the area under the curve for CVD events by 0.114 (95% CI: 0.1123-0.1157) and 0.077 (95% CI: 0.0755-0.0785), with a net reclassification improvement of 0.36 (95% CI: 0.21-0.51) and 0.33 (95% CI: 0.15-0.49), respectively. For CACS-based outcomes in BioHEART, LRS achieved a significant area under the curve improvement of 0.02 over the FRS (0.76 vs 0.74; P < 1.0 × 10
-5 ). A simplified, clinically applicable version of LRS was also created that had comparable performance to the original LRS., Conclusions: LRS, augmenting the FRS, presents potential to improve intermediate-risk stratification and to predict atherosclerotic markers using a simple blood test, suitable for clinical application. This could facilitate the triage of individuals for noninvasive imaging such as CACS, fostering precision medicine in CVD prevention and management., Competing Interests: Funding Support and Author Disclosures This work was supported by The Heart Foundation 2020 Predictive Modelling Strategic Grant #105511; Medical Research Future Fund (MRFCRI000210); an award from the Ernest Heine Family Foundation; the Victorian Government’s Operational Infrastructure Support Program; and the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (#1101320). Drs Huynh, Magliano, and Meikle have received investigator grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. Dr Carrington has received an endowed fellowship in the Cardiology Centre of Excellence from Filippo and Maria Casella. All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)- Published
- 2024
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