Search

The wet bulb temperature (T w ) has gained considerable attention as a crucial indicator of heat-related health risks. Here we report south-to-north spatially heterogeneous trends of T w in China over 1979-2018. We find that actual water vapor pressure (E a ) changes play a dominant role in determining the different trend of T w in southern and northern China, which is attributed to the faster warming of high-latitude regions of East Asia as a response to climate change. This warming effect regulates large-scale atmospheric features and leads to extended impacts of the South Asia high (SAH) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) over southern China and to suppressed moisture transport. Attribution analysis using climate model simulations confirms these findings. We further find that the entire eastern China, that accommodates 94% of the country's population, is likely to experience widespread and uniform elevated thermal stress the end of this century. Our findings highlight the necessity for development of adaptation measures in eastern China to avoid adverse impacts of heat stress, suggesting similar implications for other regions as well., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Dust loading in West and South Asia has been a major environmental issue due to its negative effects on air quality, food security, energy supply and public health, as well as on regional and global weather and climate. Yet a robust understanding of its recent changes and future projection remains unclear. On the basis of several high-quality remote sensing products, we detect a consistently decreasing trend of dust loading in West and South Asia over the last two decades. In contrast to previous studies emphasizing the role of local land use changes, here, we attribute the regional dust decline to the continuous intensification of Arctic amplification driven by anthropogenic global warming. Arctic amplification results in anomalous mid-latitude atmospheric circulation, particularly a deepened trough stretching from West Siberia to Northeast India, which inhibits both dust emissions and their downstream transports. Large ensemble climate model simulations further support the dominant role of greenhouse gases induced Arctic amplification in modulating dust loading over West and South Asia. Future projections under different emission scenarios imply potential adverse effects of carbon neutrality in leading to higher regional dust loading and thus highlight the importance of stronger anti-desertification counter-actions such as reforestation and irrigation management., Competing Interests: Competing interests statement:The authors declare no competing interest.

Hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) has been found to be an abundant organosulfur aerosol compound in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with a measured maximum daily mean concentration of up to 10 μg per cubic meter in winter. However, the production medium of HMS in aerosols is controversial, and it is unknown whether chemical transport models are able to capture the variations of HMS during individual haze events. In this work, we modify the parametrization of HMS chemistry in the nested-grid GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, whose simulations provide a good account of the field measurements during winter haze episodes. We find the contribution of the aqueous aerosol pathway to total HMS is about 36% in winter in Beijing, due primarily to the enhancement effect of the ionic strength on the rate constants of the reaction between dissolved formaldehyde and sulfite. Our simulations suggest that the HMS-to-inorganic sulfate ratio will increase from the baseline of 7% to 13% in the near future, given the ambitious clean air and climate mitigation policies for the BTH region. The more rapid reductions in emissions of SO 2 and NO x compared to NH 3 alter the atmospheric acidity, which is a critical factor leading to the rising importance of HMS in particulate sulfur species.

China's civil aviation market has rapidly expanded, becoming the world's second-largest. However, the air quality and health impacts caused by its aircraft emissions have been inadequately assessed. Here, we leverage an updated emission inventory of air pollutants with improved temporal and spatial resolution based on hundreds of thousands of flight trajectories and simulate aviation-attributable contributions to ground-level air pollution in China. We find that in 2017, the annual-average aviation-attributed PM 2.5 and O 3 concentrations were 0.4-1.5 and 10.6-14.5 μg·m -3 , respectively, suggesting that aviation emissions have become an increasingly important source of ambient air pollution. The contributions attributable to high-altitude emissions (climb/cruise/descent) were comparable to those at low altitudes (landing and takeoff). Aviation-attributed ambient PM 2.5 and O 3 exposures are estimated to have caused about 67,000 deaths in China in 2017, with populous coastal regions in Eastern China suffering the most due to the dense aviation activity. We recommend that industrial and policy stakeholders expedite an agenda of regulating air pollutants harmonized with decarbonization efforts for a more sustainable aviation future.

Heat waves and air pollution extremes exert compounding effects on human health and food security and may worsen under future climate change. On the basis of reconstructed daily O 3 levels in China and meteorological reanalysis, we found that the interannual variability of the frequency of summertime co-occurrence of heat wave and O 3 pollution in China is regulated mainly by a combination of springtime warming in the western Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean, and Ross Sea. These sea surface temperature anomalies impose influences on precipitation, radiation, etc., to modulate the co-occurrence, which were also confirmed with coupled chemistry-climate numerical experiments. We thus built a multivariable regression model to predict co-occurrence a season in advance, and correlation coefficient could reach 0.81 ( P < 0.01) for the North China Plain. Our results provide useful information for the government to take actions in advance to mitigate damage from these synergistic costressors.

The paper explores options for a 2050 carbon free energy future for India. Onshore wind and solar sources are projected as the dominant primary contributions to this objective. The analysis envisages an important role for so-called green hydrogen produced by electrolysis fueled by these carbon free energy sources. This hydrogen source can be used to accommodate for the intrinsic variability of wind and solar complementing opportunities for storage of power by batteries and pumped hydro. The green source of hydrogen can be used also to supplant current industrial uses of gray hydrogen produced in the Indian context largely from natural gas with important related emissions of CO 2 . The paper explores further options for use of green hydrogen to lower emissions from otherwise difficult to abate sectors of both industry and transport. The analysis is applied to identify the least cost options to meet India's zero carbon future., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

The Japanese government has announced a commitment to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It envisages an important role for hydrogen in the nation's future energy economy. This paper explores the possibility that a significant source for this hydrogen could be produced by electrolysis fueled by power generated from offshore wind in China. Hydrogen could be delivered to Japan either as liquid, or bound to a chemical carrier such as toluene, or as a component of ammonia. The paper presents an analysis of factors determining the ultimate cost for this hydrogen, including expenses for production, storage, conversion, transport, and treatment at the destination. It concludes that the Chinese source could be delivered at a volume and cost consistent with Japan's idealized future projections., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

As the world's largest CO 2 emitter, China's ability to decarbonize its energy system strongly affects the prospect of achieving the 1.5 °C limit in global, average surface-temperature rise. Understanding technically feasible, cost-competitive, and grid-compatible solar photovoltaic (PV) power potentials spatiotemporally is critical for China's future energy pathway. This study develops an integrated model to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of the technology-economic-grid PV potentials in China during 2020 to 2060 under the assumption of continued cost degression in line with the trends of the past decade. The model considers the spatialized technical constraints, up-to-date economic parameters, and dynamic hourly interactions with the power grid. In contrast to the PV production of 0.26 PWh in 2020, results suggest that China's technical potential will increase from 99.2 PWh in 2020 to 146.1 PWh in 2060 along with technical advances, and the national average power price could decrease from 4.9 to 0.4 US cents/kWh during the same period. About 78.6% (79.7 PWh) of China's technical potential will realize price parity to coal-fired power in 2021, with price parity achieved nationwide by 2023. The cost advantage of solar PV allows for coupling with storage to generate cost-competitive and grid-compatible electricity. The combined systems potentially could supply 7.2 PWh of grid-compatible electricity in 2060 to meet 43.2% of the country's electricity demand at a price below 2.5 US cents/kWh. The findings highlight a crucial energy transition point, not only for China but for other countries, at which combined solar power and storage systems become a cheaper alternative to coal-fired electricity and a more grid-compatible option., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Recognizing that bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) may still take years to mature, this study focuses on another photosynthesis-based, negative-carbon technology that is readier to implement in China: biomass intermediate pyrolysis poly-generation (BIPP). Here we find that a BIPP system can be profitable without subsidies, while its national deployment could contribute to a 61% reduction of carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product in 2030 compared to 2005 and result additionally in a reduction in air pollutant emissions. With 73% of national crop residues used between 2020 and 2030, the cumulative greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction could reach up to 8620 Mt CO 2 -eq by 2050, contributing 13-31% of the global GHG emission reduction goal for BECCS, and nearly 4555 Mt more than that projected for BECCS alone in China. Thus, China's BIPP deployment could have an important influence on achieving both national and global GHG emissions reduction targets.

Nitrate and sulfate are two key components of airborne particulate matter (PM). While multiple formation mechanisms have been proposed for sulfate, current air quality models commonly underestimate its concentrations and mass fractions during northern China winter haze events. On the other hand, current models usually overestimate the mass fractions of nitrate. Very recently, laboratory studies have proposed that nitrous acid (N(III)) produced by particulate nitrate photolysis can oxidize sulfur dioxide to produce sulfate. Here, for the first time, we parameterize this heterogeneous mechanism into the state-of-the-art Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and quantify its contributions to sulfate formation. We find that the significance of this mechanism mainly depends on the enhancement effects (by 1-3 orders of magnitude as suggested by the available experimental studies) of nitrate photolysis rate constant ( J NO 3 - ) in aerosol liquid water compared to that in the gas phase. Comparisons between model simulations and in-situ observations in Beijing suggest that this pathway can explain about 15% (assuming an enhancement factor (EF) of 10) to 65% (assuming EF = 100) of the model-observation gaps in sulfate concentrations during winter haze. Our study strongly calls for future research on reducing the uncertainty in EF., Competing Interests: Disclaimer The authors declare no competing financial interest. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U.S. EPA. This manuscript has gone through review process within the Agency and cleared for publication.

Mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is widely viewed as essential to address climate change and requires a compelling case for ownership worldwide. While the manufacturing costs and technical capabilities of EVs are similar across regions, customer needs and economic contexts vary widely. Assessments of the all-electric-range required to cover day-to-day driving demand, and the climate and economic benefits of EVs, need to account for differences in regional characteristics and individual travel patterns. To meet this need travel profiles for 1681 light-duty passenger vehicles in China, the U.S., and Germany were used to make the first consistent multiregional comparison of customer and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission benefits of EVs. We show that despite differences in fuel prices, driving patterns, and subsidies, the economic benefits/challenges of EVs are generally similar across regions. Individuals who are economically most likely to adopt EVs have GHG benefits that are substantially greater than for average drivers. Such "priority" EV customers have large (32%-63%) reductions in cradle-to-grave GHG emissions. It is shown that low battery costs (below approximately $100/kWh) and a portfolio of EV offerings are required for mass adoption of electric vehicles.

As China makes every effort to control air pollution, India emerges as the world's most polluted country, receiving worldwide attention with frequent winter (boreal) haze extremes. In this study, we found that the interannual variability of wintertime aerosol pollution over northern India is regulated mainly by a combination of El Niño and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Both El Niño sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and AAO-induced Indian Ocean Meridional Dipole SST anomalies can persist from autumn to winter, offering prospects for a prewinter forecast of wintertime aerosol pollution over northern India. We constructed a multivariable regression model incorporating El Niño and AAO indices for autumn to predict wintertime AOD. The prediction exhibits a high degree of consistency with observation, with a correlation coefficient of 0.78 ( P < 0.01). This statistical model could allow the Indian government to forecast aerosol pollution conditions in winter and accordingly improve plans for pollution control.

Realizing the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2 °C by the end of this century will most likely require deployment of carbon-negative technologies. It is particularly important that China, as the world's top carbon emitter, avoids being locked into carbon-intensive, coal-fired power-generation technologies and undertakes a smooth transition from high- to negative-carbon electricity production. We focus here on deploying a combination of coal and biomass energy to produce electricity in China using an integrated gasification cycle system combined with carbon capture and storage (CBECCS). Such a system will also reduce air pollutant emissions, thus contributing to China's near-term goal of improving air quality. We evaluate the bus-bar electricity-generation prices for CBECCS with mixing ratios of crop residues varying from 0 to 100%, as well as associated costs for carbon mitigation and cobenefits for air quality. We find that CBECCS systems employing a crop residue ratio of 35% could produce electricity with net-zero life-cycle emissions of greenhouse gases, with a levelized cost of electricity of no more than 9.2 US cents per kilowatt hour. A carbon price of approximately $52.0 per ton would make CBECCS cost-competitive with pulverized coal power plants. Therefore, our results provide critical insights for designing a CBECCS strategy in China to harness near-term air-quality cobenefits while laying the foundation for achieving negative carbon emissions in the long run., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

The Indian government has set an ambitious target for future renewable power generation, including 60 GW of cumulative wind power capacity by 2022. However, the benefits of these substantial investments are vulnerable to the changing climate. On the basis of hourly wind data from an assimilated meteorology reanalysis dataset covering the 1980-2016 period, we show that wind power potential may have declined secularly over this interval, particularly in western India. Surface temperature data confirm that significant warming occurred in the Indian Ocean over the study period, leading to modulation of high pressure over the ocean. A multivariable linear regression model incorporating the pressure gradient between the Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent can account for the interannual variability of wind power. A series of numerical sensitivity experiments confirm that warming in the Indian Ocean contributes to subsidence and dampening of upward motion over the Indian continent, resulting potentially in weakening of the monsoonal circulation and wind speeds over India.

Emissions from power plants in China and India contain a myriad of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 , PM ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter) precursors, posing significant health risks among large, densely settled populations. Studies isolating the contributions of various source classes and geographic regions are limited in China and India, but such information could be helpful for policy makers attempting to identify efficient mitigation strategies. We quantified the impact of power generation emissions on annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations using the state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry) in China and India. Evaluations using nationwide surface measurements show the model performs reasonably well. We calculated province-specific annual changes in mortality and life expectancy due to power generation emissions generated PM 2.5 using the Integrated Exposure Response (IER) model, recently updated IER parameters from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015, population data, and the World Health Organization (WHO) life tables for China and India. We estimate that 15 million (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 10 to 21 million) years of life lost can be avoided in China each year and 11 million (95% CI: 7 to 15 million) in India by eliminating power generation emissions. Priorities in upgrading existing power generating technologies should be given to Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan provinces in China, and Uttar Pradesh state in India due to their dominant contributions to the current health risks., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

China hosts the world's largest market for wind-generated electricity. The financial return and carbon reduction benefits from wind power are sensitive to changing wind resources. Wind data derived from an assimilated meteorological database are used here to estimate what the wind generated electricity in China would have been on an hourly basis over the period 1979 to 2015 at a geographical resolution of approximately 50 km × 50 km. The analysis indicates a secular decrease in generating potential over this interval, with the largest declines observed for western Inner Mongolia (15 ± 7%) and the northern part of Gansu (17 ± 8%), two leading wind investment areas. The decrease is associated with long-term warming in the vicinity of the Siberian High (SH), correlated also with the observed secular increase in global average surface temperatures. The long-term trend is modulated by variability relating to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). A linear regression model incorporating indices for the PDO and AO, as well as the declining trend, can account for the interannual variability of wind power, suggesting that advances in long-term forecasting could be exploited to markedly improve management of future energy systems.

Recent studies show that international trade affects global distributions of air pollution and public health. Domestic interprovincial trade has similar effects within countries, but has not been comprehensively investigated previously. Here we link four models to evaluate the effects of both international exports and interprovincial trade on PM 2.5 pollution and public health across China. We show that 50-60% of China's air pollutant emissions in 2007 were associated with goods and services consumed outside of the provinces where they were produced. Of an estimated 1.10 million premature deaths caused by PM 2.5 pollution throughout China, nearly 19% (208,500 deaths) are attributable to international exports. In contrast, interprovincial trade leads to improved air quality in developed coastal provinces with a net effect of 78,500 avoided deaths nationwide. However, both international export and interprovincial trade exacerbate the health burdens of air pollution in China's less developed interior provinces. Our results reveal trade to be a critical but largely overlooked consideration in effective regional air quality planning for China.International and domestic interprovincial trade of China are entangled, but their health impacts have been treated separately in earlier studies. Here Wang. quantify the complex impacts of trade on public health across China within an integrative framework.

Although capacity credits for wind power have been embodied in power systems in the U.S. and Europe, the current planning framework for electricity in China continues to treat wind power as a nondispatchable source with zero contribution to firm capacity. This study adopts a rigorous reliability model for the electric power system evaluating capacity credits that should be recognized for offshore wind resources supplying power demands for Jiangsu, China. Jiangsu is an economic hub located in the Yangtze River delta accounting for 10% of the total electricity consumed in China. Demand for electricity in Jiangsu is projected to increase from 331 TWh in 2009 to 800 TWh by 2030. Given a wind penetration level of 60% for the future additional Jiangsu power supply, wind resources distributed along the offshore region of five coastal provinces in China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Fujian) should merit a capacity credit of 12.9%, the fraction of installed wind capacity that should be recognized to displace coal-fired systems without violating the reliability standard. In the high-coal-price scenario, with 60% wind penetration, reductions in CO2 emissions relative to a business as usual reference could be as large as 200.2 million tons of CO2 or 51.8% of the potential addition, with a cost for emissions avoided of $29.0 per ton.

China is the largest atmospheric mercury (Hg) emitter in the world. Its Hg emissions and environmental impacts need to be evaluated. In this study, China's Hg emission inventory is updated to 2007 and applied in the GEOS-Chem model to simulate the Hg concentrations and depositions in China. Results indicate that simulations agree well with observed background Hg concentrations. The anthropogenic sources contributed 35-50% of THg concentration and 50-70% of total deposition in polluted regions. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impacts of mercury emissions from power plants, non-ferrous metal smelters and cement plants. It is found that power plants are the most important emission sources in the North China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and the Pearl River Delta (PRD) while the contribution of non-ferrous metal smelters is most significant in the Southwest China. The impacts of cement plants are significant in the YRD, PRD and Central China., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Demands for electricity and energy to supply heat are expected to expand by 71% and 47%, respectively, for Beijing in 2020 relative to 2009. If the additional electricity and heat are supplied solely by coal as is the current situation, annual emissions of CO2 may be expected to increase by 59.6% or 99 million tons over this interval. Assessed against this business as usual (BAU) background, the present study indicates that significant reductions in emissions could be realized using wind-generated electricity to provide a source of heat, employed either with heat pumps or with electric thermal storage (ETS) devices. Relative to BAU, reductions in CO2 with heat pumps assuming 20% wind penetration could be as large as 48.5% and could be obtained at a cost for abatement of as little as $15.6 per ton of avoided CO2. Even greater reductions, 64.5%, could be realized at a wind penetration level of 40% but at a higher cost, $29.4 per ton. Costs for reduction of CO2 using ETS systems are significantly higher, reflecting the relatively low efficiency for conversion of coal to power to heat.

Emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)) from the U.S. power sector decreased by 24% in 2009 relative to 2008. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach was applied to isolate the factors responsible for this decrease. It is concluded that 15% of the decrease can be attributed to the drop in demand for electricity triggered by the economic recession, and 28% can be attributed to switching of fuel from coal to gas responding to the decrease in prices for the latter. The largest factor in the decrease, close to 57%, resulted from an overall decline in emissions per unit of power generated from coal. This is attributed in part to selective idling of older, less efficient coal plants that generally do not incorporate technology for sulfur removal, and in part to continued investments by the power sector in removal equipment in response to the requirements limiting emissions imposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). The paper argues further that imposition of a modest tax on emissions of carbon would have ancillary benefits in terms of emissions of SO(2).

CO(2) emissions from the US power sector decreased by 8.76% in 2009 relative to 2008 contributing to a decrease over this period of 6.59% in overall US emissions of greenhouse gases. An econometric model, tuned to data reported for regional generation of US electricity, is used to diagnose factors responsible for the 2009 decrease. More than half of the reduction is attributed to a shift from generation of power using coal to gas driven by a recent decrease in gas prices in response to the increase in production from shale. An important result of the model is that, when the cost differential for generation using gas rather than coal falls below 2-3 cents/kWh, less efficient coal fired plants are displaced by more efficient natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation alternatives. Costs for generation using NGCC decreased by close to 4 cents/kWh in 2009 relative to 2008 ensuring that generation of electricity using gas was competitive with coal in 2009 in contrast to the situation in 2008 when gas prices were much higher. A modest price on carbon could contribute to additional switching from coal to gas with further savings in CO(2) emissions.

Policies to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China may have conflicting impacts on public health, soil acidification, and climate. Two scenarios for 2020, a base case without anticipated control measures and a more realistic case including such controls, are evaluated to quantify the effects of the policies on emissions and resulting environmental outcomes. Large benefits to public health can be expected from the controls, attributed mainly to reduced emissions of primary PM and gaseous PM precursors, and thus lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Approximately 4% of all-cause mortality in the country can be avoided (95% confidence interval: 1-7%), particularly in eastern and north-central China, regions with large population densities and high levels of PM2.5. Surface ozone levels, however, are estimated to increase in parts of those regions, despite NOX reductions. This implies VOC-limited conditions. Even with significant reduction of SO2 and NOX emissions, the controls will not significantly mitigate risks of soil acidification, judged by the exceedance levels of critical load (CL). This is due to the decrease in primary PM emissions, with the consequent reduction in deposition of alkaline base cations. Compared to 2005, even larger CL exceedances are found for both scenarios in 2020, implying that PM control may negate any recovery from soil acidification due to SO2 reductions. Noting large uncertainties, current polices to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China will not reduce climate warming, since controlling SO2 emissions also reduces reflective secondary aerosols. Black carbon emission is an important source of uncertainty concerning the effects of Chinese control policies on global temperature change. Given these conflicts, greater consideration should be paid to reconciling varied environmental objectives, and emission control strategies should target not only criteria pollutants but also species such as VOCs and CO2., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Wind power can make an important contribution to the goal of reducing emissions of CO2. The major problem relates to the intrinsic variability of the source and the difficulty of reconciling the supply of electricity with demand particularly at high levels of wind penetration. This challenge is explored for the case of the ERCOT system in Texas. Demand for electricity in Texas is projected to increase by approximately 60% by 2030. Considering hourly load data reported for 2006, assuming that the pattern of demand in 2030 should be similar to 2006, and adopting as a business as usual (BAU) reference an assumption that the anticipated additional electricity should be supplied by a combination of coal and gas with prices, discounted to 2007 dollars of $2 and $6 per MMBTU respectively, we conclude that the bus-bar price for electricity would increase by about 1.1 ¢/kWh at a wind penetration level of 30%, by about 3.4 ¢/kWh at a penetration level of 80%. Corresponding costs for reductions in CO2 range from $20/ton to $60/ton. A number of possibilities are discussed that could contribute to a reduction in these costs including the impact of an expanded future fleet of electrically driven vehicles.

The Chinese government has moved aggressively since 2005 to reduce emissions of a number of pollutants including primary particulate matter (PM) and sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), efforts inadvertently aided since late 2008 by economic recession. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and column nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) provide independent indicators of emission trends, clearly reflecting the sharp onset of the recession in the fall of 2008 and rebound of the economy in the latter half of 2009. Comparison of AOD with ground-based observations of PM over a longer period indicate that emission-control policies have not been successful in reducing concentrations of aerosol pollutants at smaller size range over industrialized regions of China. The lack of success is attributed to the increasing importance of anthropogenic secondary aerosols formed from precursor species including nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), and ammonia (NH(3)).

Wind offers an important alternative to coal as a source of energy for generation of electricity in China with the potential for substantial savings in carbon dioxide emissions. Wind fields derived from assimilated meteorological data are used to assess the potential for wind-generated electricity in China subject to the existing government-approved bidding process for new wind farms. Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kilowatt-hour for delivery of electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, it is concluded that wind could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption. Electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.

The potential of wind power as a global source of electricity is assessed by using winds derived through assimilation of data from a variety of meteorological sources. The analysis indicates that a network of land-based 2.5-megawatt (MW) turbines restricted to nonforested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply >40 times current worldwide consumption of electricity, >5 times total global use of energy in all forms. Resources in the contiguous United States, specifically in the central plain states, could accommodate as much as 16 times total current demand for electricity in the United States. Estimates are given also for quantities of electricity that could be obtained by using a network of 3.6-MW turbines deployed in ocean waters with depths <200 m within 50 nautical miles (92.6 km) of closest coastlines.