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In 2020 Medicare reintroduced Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCCs) to risk-adjust Medicare Advantage and accountable care organization (ACO) payments. The potential for Medicare spending increases from this policy change are not well understood because the baseline accuracy of ADRD HCCs is uncertain. Using linked 2016-18 claims and electronic health record data from a large ACO, we evaluated the accuracy of claims-based ADRD HCCs against a reference standard of clinician-adjudicated disease. An estimated 7.5 percent of beneficiaries had clinician-adjudicated ADRD. Among those with ADRD HCCs, 34 percent did not have clinician-adjudicated disease. The false-negative and false-positive rates were 22.7 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. Medicare spending for those with false-negative ADRD HCCs exceeded that of true positives by $14,619 per beneficiary. If, after the reintroduction of risk adjustment for ADRD, all false negatives were coded as having ADRD, expenditure benchmarks for beneficiaries with ADRD would increase by 9 percent. Monitoring ADRD coding could become challenging in the setting of concurrent incentives to decrease false-negative rates and increase false-positive rates.

In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic caused millions to lose their jobs and, consequently, their employer-sponsored health insurance. Enacted in 2010, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) created safeguards for such events by expanding Medicaid coverage and establishing Marketplaces through which people could purchase health insurance. Using a novel national data set with information on ACA-compliant individual insurance plans, we found large increases in Marketplace enrollment in 2020 compared with 2019 but with varying percentage increases and spending risk implications across states. States that did not expand Medicaid had enrollment and spending risk increases. States that expanded Medicaid but did not relax 2020 Marketplace enrollment criteria also had spending risk increases. In contrast, states that expanded Medicaid and relaxed 2020 enrollment criteria experienced enrollment increases without spending risk changes. The findings are reassuring with respect to the ability of Marketplaces to buffer employment shocks, but they also provide cautionary signals that risks and premiums could begin to rise either in the absence of Medicaid expansion or when Marketplace enrollment is constrained.