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Purpose: This study investigates the influence of economic conditions, healthcare system capacity, and health-related variables on the proportion of the older adult population (Population ages 65 and above) in European Union countries. It aims to identify how factors such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, healthcare expenditure, hospital bed availability, and the prevalence of chronic diseases impact the aging demographic., Methods: This study explores the dynamic interactions and temporal relationships between economic stability, healthcare capacity, chronic disease prevalence, and demographic aging patterns. The research employs a mixed-method approach, utilizing System GMM and wavelet coherence analysis on panel data from 27 EU countries between 2000 and 2021., Results: The findings reveal significant positive associations between economic prosperity and healthcare resources with the size of the older adult population. Increased GDP, efficient healthcare spending, and hospital bed availability are positively correlated with a larger older adult demographic. In contrast, high unemployment and inflation are linked to negative outcomes for the older adult population, reducing available resources and access to healthcare. Wavelet coherence analysis further uncovers how fluctuations in the prevalence of chronic diseases influence aging trends across different periods and frequencies., Conclusion: The study highlights the importance of integrated economic and healthcare policies to support the growing older adult population. Ensuring economic stability, enhancing healthcare infrastructure, and effectively managing chronic diseases are essential for improving quality of life and promoting sustainable aging in EU societies., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Iuga, Nerişanu and Iuga.)

This study examines the potential economic and labour market impacts of a hypothetical but plausible migration scenario of 250,000 new migrants inspired by Austria's experience in 2015. Using the agent-based macroeconomic model developed by Poledna et al. (Eur Econ Rev, 151:104306, 2023. 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104306, the study explores the detailed labour market outcomes for different groups in Austria's population and the macroeconomic effects of the migration scenario. The analysis suggests that Austria's economy and labour market have the potential to be resilient to the simulated migration influx. The results indicate a positive impact on GDP due to increased aggregate consumption and investment. The labour market experiences an increase in the unemployment rates of natives and previous migrants. In some industries, the increase in the unemployment rates is more significant, potentially indicating competition among different groups of migrants. This research provides insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Austria and other countries that may face the challenge of managing large-scale migration in the near future., Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40878-024-00374-3., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare that they have no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2024.)

The paper contributes to the debate on natural interest rates and potential growth rates. We build a model-based projection of the world's most significant economies/areas to improve understanding of their change over the long run and the factors behind their decline. We use a general equilibrium overlapping generation model to understand the simultaneous role of demographics, technology, and globalization. The novelty of the model lies in the way it constructs a human capital index based on UN population projections and an estimated increasing returns production function for major economies worldwide. We find that the decline in interest rates is well explained through labor market dynamics and the increasing obsolescence of capital goods. We also find that a reduced share of labor income has caused movement in the opposite direction, leading to an increase in natural interest rates, which runs counter to the empirical evidence. Moreover, the dynamics of economic integration predict an endogenous adjustment of global imbalances over the long run, with an increasing weight of the Chinese economy and, consequently, a phase of weakness in United States growth between 2030 and 2040. The model is also used to perform shock scenario analysis. We find that demographic decline can adversely affect the growth dynamics for European countries, while a change in the dynamics of globalization can have serious consequences, especially for the United States, with significant benefits for European countries and China., (© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2022, Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.)

Aims: Modern pharmaceutical product development is a long and complex process associated with significant investments by pharmaceutical companies. The innovative pharmaceutical industry accounts for the vast majority of expenditures in clinical trials of potential new pharmaceuticals and therefore generates economic activity within a country. The aim was to assess the far-reaching economic impact of industry-sponsored clinical-trials (ISCTs) of pharmaceutical products for the healthcare system and the national economy. Materials and methods: The study approach was based on three analytical steps. First, a survey among 15 pharmaceutical companies in Austria was conducted to evaluate the annual number of ISCTs subdivided according to trial phase, therapeutic areas and associated employees. Second, the monetary value of treatments performed in ISCTs was calculated based on a sample of clinical-trial protocols. Finally, the macroeconomic impact, measured in terms of value-added and jobs created by the conducted ISCTs, was calculated using Input-Output analysis by applying an extended Leontief-model. Results: The study demonstrated that €116.22 million spent in ISCTs generated a total value added of €144 million, €74 million direct, in 2018. Each year a medical treatment value of €100 million was financed through 463 ISCTs, with an average value of medical treatment of €37,068 per recruited patient. This represents a significant 0.3% of annual current health-expenditures. In summary, each Euro invested by the pharmaceutical industry in ISCTs generates €1.95 for the Austrian economy. ISCTs also created and secured employment in the extent of 2,021 full-time-equivalents, thus resulting in an employment multiplier of 1.66. Conclusions: In conclusion, conducting clinical-trials by pharmaceutical industry-beside its importance in its own domain-results in tangible benefits and a positive macroeconomic impact that contribute to the sustainability of the Austrian healthcare system by complementing its limited resources. Furthermore, it is a non-negligible factor in locational and industrial policy.