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Importance: Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is a heritable disease. A polygenic risk score (PRS) threshold may be used to identify individuals at low risk of disease onset., Objective: To assess the utility of a POAG PRS to identify ocular hypertensive individuals at low risk of disease onset., Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a post hoc analysis of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), a multicenter randomized clinical trial across 22 centers in the US conducted among 1636 participants with ocular hypertension from February 1994 to April 2019 with available genetic data. Of the 1636 original participants, 1077 had available genetic data; after excluding 67 for missing data, data quality concerns, or ancestry other than European or African, 1010 were included in the present analysis. Data for this report were analyzed from November 2023 to June 2024., Exposure: From 1994-2002, participants were randomized to receive topical intraocular pressure (IOP)-lowering medications. From 2002 onwards, all participants were given topical IOP-lowering medications., Main Outcome and Measure: Twenty-year conversion rates by POAG PRS threshold, baseline randomization status, and OHTS clinical risk tertile., Results: Among the 1010 participants in this study, 563 (65.8%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 55.9 (9.4) years. In a mixed-effects logistic regression model adjusted for OHTS risk factors for conversion to POAG and randomization status, a PRS under the 48th percentile was associated with a 1.49 times higher likelihood of disease-free status after 20 years of follow-up (95% CI, 1.04-2.15; P = .03; unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.64; 95% CI, 1.13-2.38; P = .009), compared with high polygenic risk. When we stratified the trial cohort into nongenetic OHTS clinical risk tertiles, the largest differences in survival probability at 20 years based on PRS threshold was observed in eyes in the highest tertile, initial observation group (20-year conversion rate: 61.1% in the high polygenic risk group vs 23.8% in the low polygenic risk group; 95% CI, -63.0 to -11.6; P = .01), with randomization to early treatment partially mitigating the effect of high genetic risk (20-year conversion rate: 37.3% in the high polygenic risk group vs 24.1% in the low polygenic risk group; 95% CI, -35.6 to 9.3%; P = .32)., Conclusions and Relevance: These findings support considering use of a POAG PRS threshold to identify individuals at low risk of disease onset, with those below the PRS threshold more likely to have lower conversion rates over 20 years. Among those considered at highest risk based on the OHTS clinical risk model, early treatment may partially offset the association with high genetic risk but provide limited benefit for those with low genetic risk., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000125.

Importance: If preperimetric glaucoma reduces patient-reported vision-related quality of life (VRQoL), clinicians might consider earlier and more aggressive treatment of some patients with ocular hypertension and early glaucoma., Objective: To determine the impact of preperimetric glaucoma and early glaucomatous visual field (VF) loss on participants' VRQoL compared with participants who did not develop glaucoma in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS)., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used data from participants enrolled in the OHTS from 1994 to 1996 who completed 20-year examination follow-up and VRQoL surveys from January 7, 2016, to November 19, 2019. Diagnosis of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) required reproducible changes in VFs or optic discs as determined by reading centers and attributed to glaucoma by a masked end point committee. Data analysis was performed from June 27, 2023 to March 7, 2024., Exposure: Ocular hypertension and glaucoma., Main Outcomes and Measures: Cross-sectional analysis of Rasch-calibrated total scores of the National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire (VFQ) and the Glaucoma Quality of Life (GQL) survey was performed. Total scores were standardized from 0 (poor) to 100 (good). The main outcomes were differences in total VRQoL scores between participants who did not develop POAG (control) and 4 mutually exclusive POAG groups: unilateral or bilateral disc POAG with no glaucomatous VF loss in either eye and unilateral or bilateral VF POAG with or without disc changes. Differences in total VRQoL scores were analyzed using univariate and multivariate linear regression models., Results: Of 1636 participants originally enrolled in the OHTS, 679 (42%) completed the 20-year examination and VRQoL surveys. Of those participants completing 20-year follow-up, mean (SD) participant age at follow-up was 73.8 (7.7) years, and 412 of 679 participants (60.7%) self-reported as female. The mean (SD) Rasch-calibrated total VFQ scores were 72.5 (13.4) in the no POAG group (control) vs 72.7 (13.8) in the unilateral disc POAG group (difference, 0.17; 95% CI, -3.17 to 3.41; P = .92), 73.4 (14.0) in the bilateral disc POAG group (difference, 0.92; 95% CI, -2.93 to 4.77; P = .64), 69.2 (14.5) in the unilateral VF POAG group (difference, 3.33; 95% CI, -6.38 to -0.27; P = .03), and 58.5 (16.9) in the bilateral VF POAG group (difference, -13.96; 95% CI, -17.73 to -10.19; P<.001). Similar results were found for the GQL questionnaire., Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, among the surviving participants of OHTS who completed the 20-year follow-up examination, those participants who developed preperimetric POAG but no glaucomatous VF loss did not report lower VFQoL compared with participants who did not develop POAG. This finding should allow clinicians and patients the time to determine the frequency of examinations and whether the initiation of treatment is appropriate.

Objectives: To determine the locations on the 24-2 visual field (VF) testing grid that are most likely to progress in patients with ocular hypertension (OHTN). Based on a structural model of superior and inferior areas of relative vulnerability at the optic disc, we hypothesized that the nasal and paracentral regions are more prone to show a reduction in sensitivity., Methods: Posthoc analysis of data collected in phases 1 and 2 of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS). A pointwise analysis was applied to determine the progression patterns in the early and delayed treatment groups. Each group's progression rate and frequency were calculated for each of the 52 locations corresponding to the 24-2 VF strategy, using trend- and event-based analyses, respectively., Results: For the event-based analysis, the events were most commonly found in the nasal and paracentral regions. The same regions, with some modest variation, were found to have the fastest rates of progression (ROP) measured with trend analysis. A similar pattern of progression was observed in both the early and delayed treatment groups. The difference in event rates and ROP between the early and delayed treatment groups was also greatest in the nasal and paracentral regions., Conclusions: Development of VF loss in ocular hypertensive eyes appears to be consistent with the vulnerability zones previously described in glaucomatous eyes with established VF loss. Ocular hypotensive treatment likely helps to slow the rate of progression in these regions. This suggests that careful monitoring of these locations may be useful., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to The Royal College of Ophthalmologists.)

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a small double-stranded DNA virus that chronically infects 296 million people. Over half of its compact genome encodes proteins in two overlapping reading frames, and during evolution, multiple selective pressures can act on shared nucleotides. This study combines an RNA-based HBV cell culture system with deep mutational scanning (DMS) to uncouple cis- and trans-acting sequence requirements in the HBV genome. The results support a leaky ribosome scanning model for polymerase translation, provide a fitness map of the HBV polymerase at single-nucleotide resolution, and identify conserved prolines adjacent to the HBV polymerase termination codon that stall ribosomes. Further experiments indicated that stalled ribosomes tether the nascent polymerase to its template RNA, ensuring cis-preferential RNA packaging and reverse transcription of the HBV genome., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests Y.Y., W.M.S., and C.M.R. filed a patent application, US 62/741,032, with Rockefeller University on September 19, 2019, entitled “RNA-Based Methods to Launch Hepatitis B Virus Infection.” Patent pending. C.M.R. is a shareholder and member of the scientific advisory board at VIR Biotechnology., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Importance: Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is a highly heritable disease, with 127 identified risk loci to date. Polygenic risk score (PRS) may provide a clinically useful measure of aggregate genetic burden and improve patient risk stratification., Objective: To assess whether a PRS improves prediction of POAG onset in patients with ocular hypertension., Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a post hoc analysis of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study. Data were collected from 22 US sites with a mean (SD) follow-up of 14.0 (6.9) years. A total of 1636 participants were followed up from February 1994 to December 2008; 1077 participants were enrolled in an ancillary genetics study, of which 1009 met criteria for this analysis. PRS was calculated using summary statistics from the largest cross-ancestry POAG meta-analysis, with weights trained using 8 813 496 variants from 449 186 cross-ancestry participants in the UK Biobank. Data were analyzed from July 2022 to December 2023., Exposures: From February 1994 to June 2002, participants were randomized to either topical intraocular pressure-lowering medication or close observation. After June 2002, both groups received medication., Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcome measures were hazard ratios for POAG onset. Concordance index and time-dependent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were used to compare the predictive performance of multivariable Cox proportional hazards models., Results: Of 1009 included participants, 562 (55.7%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 55.9 (9.3) years. The mean (SD) PRS was significantly higher for 350 POAG converters (0.24 [0.95]) compared with 659 nonconverters (-0.12 [1.00]) (P < .001). POAG risk increased 1.36% (95% CI, 1.08-1.64) with each higher PRS decile, with conversion ranging from 9.52% (95% CI, 7.09-11.95) in the lowest PRS decile to 21.81% (95% CI, 19.37-24.25) in the highest decile. Comparison of low-risk and high-risk PRS tertiles showed a 2.0-fold increase in 20-year POAG risk for participants of European and African ancestries. In the subgroup randomized to delayed treatment, each increase in PRS decile was associated with a 0.52-year (95% CI, 0.01-1.03) decrease in age at diagnosis (P = .047). No significant linear association between PRS and age at POAG diagnosis was present in the early treatment group. Prediction models significantly improved with the addition of PRS as a covariate (C index = 0.77) compared with the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study baseline model (C index = 0.75) (P < .001). Each 1-SD higher PRS conferred a mean hazard ratio of 1.25 (95% CI, 1.13-1.44) for POAG onset., Conclusions and Relevance: Higher PRS was associated with increased risk for POAG in patients with ocular hypertension. The inclusion of a PRS improved the prediction of POAG onset., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000125.

Prcis: We evaluated 16,351 visual field (VF) tests from Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) database and showed that more frequent testing resulted in a shorter time to detect glaucoma progression, with the best trade-off being the 6-month intervals for high-risk and 12 months for low-risk patients., Purpose: To investigate the effect of different testing intervals on time to detect visual field progression in eyes with ocular hypertension., Methods: A total of 16,351 reliable 30-2 VF tests from 1575 eyes of the OHTS-1 observation arm with a mean (95% CI) follow-up of 4.8 (4.7-4.8) years were analyzed. Computer simulations (n = 10,000 eyes) based on mean deviation values and the residuals of risk groups (according to their baseline 5 y risk of developing primary open angle glaucoma: low, medium, and high risk) were performed to estimate time to detect progression with testing intervals of 4, 6, 12, and 24 months using linear regression. The time to detect VF progression ( P < 5%) at 80% power was calculated based on the mean deviation slope of -0.42 dB/year. We assessed the time to detect a -3 dB loss as an estimate of clinically meaningful perimetric loss., Results: At 80% power, based on the progression of -0.42 dB/year, the best trade-off to detect significant rates of VF change to clinically meaningful perimetric loss in high, medium, and low-risk patients was 6, 6, and 12-month intervals, respectively., Conclusion: Given the importance of not missing the conversion to glaucoma, the frequency of testing used in OHTS (6 mo) was optimal for the detection of progression in high-risk patients. Low-risk patients could potentially be tested every 12 months to optimize resource utilization., Competing Interests: Disclosure: B.M.: Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES), Brasília, DF, Brazil. C.G.D.M.: Consultant: Belite—San Diego, CA; Reichert—Buffalo, NY; Novartis—East Hanover, NJ; Galimedix Therapeutics Inc.—Kensington, MD; Théa Pharmaceuticals, Inc.—Clemont-Ferrand, France; Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc.—Dublin, CA; Perfuse Therapeutics—San Francisco, CA; Ora Clinical, Inc.—Andover, MA; Recipient: Heidelberg Engineering GmbH—Heidelberg, Germany; Topcon Medical Systems—Oakland, NJ. J.S.P.: Consultant: Allergan, Inc.—Dublin, Ireland. M.O.G.: National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health. M.A.K.: National Eye Institute, National Institutes of Health. J.M.L.: Consultant: Aerie Pharmaceuticals, Inc.—Pittsburgh, PA; Eyenovia—New York NY; Heidelberg Engineering, GmBH—Heidelberg, Germany; NY:—Laval, Canada; Novartis—East Hanover, NJ; Galimedix Therapeutics Inc.—Kensington, MD; Bausch Healthcare, Inc.—Bridgewater, NJ; Allergan, Inc.—Dublin, Ireland. Financial Support: Heidelberg Engineering, GmBH—Heidelberg, Germany; National Eye Institute—Bethesda, MD; Research to Prevent Blindness, New York, NY. The remaining authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) chronically infects an estimated 300 million people, and standard treatments are rarely curative. Infection increases the risk of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, and consequently, nearly 1 million people die each year from chronic hepatitis B. Tools and approaches that bring insights into HBV biology and facilitate the discovery and evaluation of antiviral drugs are in demand. Here, we describe a method to initiate the replication of HBV, a DNA virus, using synthetic RNA. This approach eliminates contaminating background signals from input virus or plasmid DNA that plagues existing systems and can be used to study multiple stages of HBV replication. We further demonstrate that this method can be uniquely applied to identify sequence variants that confer resistance to antiviral drugs.

Importance: Automated deep learning (DL) analyses of fundus photographs potentially can reduce the cost and improve the efficiency of reading center assessment of end points in clinical trials., Objective: To investigate the diagnostic accuracy of DL algorithms trained on fundus photographs from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) to detect primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG)., Design, Setting, and Participants: In this diagnostic study, 1636 OHTS participants from 22 sites with a mean (range) follow-up of 10.7 (0-14.3) years. A total of 66 715 photographs from 3272 eyes were used to train and test a ResNet-50 model to detect the OHTS Endpoint Committee POAG determination based on optic disc (287 eyes, 3502 photographs) and/or visual field (198 eyes, 2300 visual fields) changes. Three independent test sets were used to evaluate the generalizability of the model., Main Outcomes and Measures: Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and sensitivities at fixed specificities were calculated to compare model performance. Evaluation of false-positive rates was used to determine whether the DL model detected POAG before the OHTS Endpoint Committee POAG determination., Results: A total of 1147 participants were included in the training set (661 [57.6%] female; mean age, 57.2 years; 95% CI, 56.6-57.8), 167 in the validation set (97 [58.1%] female; mean age, 57.1 years; 95% CI, 55.6-58.7), and 322 in the test set (173 [53.7%] female; mean age, 57.2 years; 95% CI, 56.1-58.2). The DL model achieved an AUROC of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.92) for the OHTS Endpoint Committee determination of optic disc or VF changes. For the OHTS end points based on optic disc changes or visual field changes, AUROCs were 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88-0.94) and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.76-0.93), respectively. False-positive rates (at 90% specificity) were higher in photographs of eyes that later developed POAG by disc or visual field (27.5% [56 of 204]) compared with eyes that did not develop POAG (11.4% [50 of 440]) during follow-up. The diagnostic accuracy of the DL model developed on the optic disc end point applied to 3 independent data sets was lower, with AUROCs ranging from 0.74 (95% CI, 0.70-0.77) to 0.79 (95% CI, 0.78-0.81)., Conclusions and Relevance: The model's high diagnostic accuracy using OHTS photographs suggests that DL has the potential to standardize and automate POAG determination for clinical trials and management. In addition, the higher false-positive rate in early photographs of eyes that later developed POAG suggests that DL models detected POAG in some eyes earlier than the OHTS Endpoint Committee, reflecting the OHTS design that emphasized a high specificity for POAG determination by requiring a clinically significant change from baseline.

Importance: Ocular hypertension is an important risk factor for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). Data from long-term follow-up can be used to inform the management of patients with ocular hypertension., Objective: To determine the cumulative incidence and severity of POAG after 20 years of follow-up among participants in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study., Design, Setting, and Participants: Participants in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study were followed up from February 1994 to December 2008 in 22 clinics. Data were collected after 20 years of follow-up (from January 2016 to April 2019) or within 2 years of death. Analyses were performed from July 2019 to December 2020., Interventions: From February 28, 1994, to June 2, 2002 (phase 1), participants were randomized to receive either topical ocular hypotensive medication (medication group) or close observation (observation group). From June 3, 2002, to December 30, 2008 (phase 2), both randomization groups received medication. Beginning in 2009, treatment was no longer determined by study protocol. From January 7, 2016, to April 15, 2019 (phase 3), participants received ophthalmic examinations and visual function assessments., Main Outcomes and Measures: Twenty-year cumulative incidence and severity of POAG in 1 or both eyes after adjustment for exposure time., Results: A total of 1636 individuals (mean [SD] age, 55.4 [9.6] years; 931 women [56.9%]; 1138 White participants [69.6%]; 407 Black/African American participants [24.9%]) were randomized in phase 1 of the clinical trial. Of those, 483 participants (29.5%) developed POAG in 1 or both eyes (unadjusted incidence). After adjusting for exposure time, the 20-year cumulative incidence of POAG in 1 or both eyes was 45.6% (95% CI, 42.3%-48.8%) among all participants, 49.3% (95% CI, 44.5%-53.8%) among participants in the observation group, and 41.9% (95% CI, 37.2%-46.3%) among participants in the medication group. The 20-year cumulative incidence of POAG was 55.2% (95% CI, 47.9%-61.5%) among Black/African American participants and 42.7% (95% CI, 38.9%-46.3%) among participants of other races. The 20-year cumulative incidence for visual field loss was 25.2% (95% CI, 22.5%-27.8%). Using a 5-factor baseline model, the cumulative incidence of POAG among participants in the low-, medium-, and high-risk tertiles was 31.7% (95% CI, 26.4%-36.6%), 47.6% (95% CI, 41.6%-53.0%), and 59.8% (95% CI, 53.1%-65.5%), respectively., Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, only one-fourth of participants in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study developed visual field loss in either eye over long-term follow-up. This information, together with a prediction model, may help clinicians and patients make informed personalized decisions about the management of ocular hypertension., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000125.

Purpose: The origin of blood in glaucoma-related disc hemorrhages (DH) remains unknown. A prior clinic-based study of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG)-related DH showed that they had grayscale pixel intensities more similar to blood from retinal macroaneurysms and adjacent retinal arterioles than to blood from retinal vein occlusions or adjacent retinal venules, suggesting an arterial source. Here we assessed the densitometric profile of DH from fundus photographs in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS)., Design: Retrospective cross-sectional study of prospectively collected images., Methods: Stereo disc photographs of 161 DH events from 83 OHTS participants (mean age [standard deviation (SD)]: 65.6 [9.2] years; 46.6% female; 13.0% black race) were imported into ImageJ to measure densitometry differences (adjacent arterioles minus DH [ΔA] or venules minus DH [ΔV]). Their size as percentage of disc area, ratio of length to midpoint width, and location relative to the disc margin were also analyzed. We performed t tests to compare ΔA and ΔV, analysis of variance to compare ΔA and ΔV across DH recurrent events, and multivariable linear regression to identify determinants of ΔA and ΔV., Results: Mean (SD) ΔA and ΔV were -2.2 (8.7) and -11.4 (9.7) pixel intensity units, respectively (P < .001). ΔA and ΔV each did not differ significantly across recurrence of DH (P ≥ .92) or between DH events with and without POAG (P ≥ .26)., Conclusions: OHTS DH had densitometric measurements more similar in magnitude to adjacent arterioles than venules, supporting an arterial origin for DH. Vascular dysregulation may contribute to disc hemorrhage formation in ocular hypertension., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Importance: The contribution of long-term intraocular pressure (IOP) variability to the development of primary open-angle glaucoma is still controversial., Objective: To assess whether long-term IOP variability data improve a prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in individuals with untreated ocular hypertension., Design, Setting, and Participants: This post hoc secondary analysis of 2 randomized clinical trials included data from 709 of 819 participants in the observation group of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) followed up from February 28, 1994, to June 1, 2002, and 397 of 500 participants in the placebo group of the European Glaucoma Prevention Study (EGPS) followed up from January 1, 1997, to September 30, 2003. Data analyses were completed between January 1, 2019, and March 15, 2020., Exposures: The original prediction model for the development of POAG included the following baseline factors: age, IOP, central corneal thickness, vertical cup-disc ratio, and pattern SD. This analysis tested whether substitution of baseline IOP with mean follow-up IOP, SD of IOP, maximum IOP, range of IOP, or coefficient of variation IOP would improve predictive accuracy., Main Outcomes and Measures: The C statistic was used to compare the predictive accuracy of multivariable landmark Cox proportional hazards regression models for the development of POAG., Results: Data from the OHTS consisted of 97 POAG end points from 709 of 819 participants (416 [58.7%] women; 177 [25.0%] African American and 490 [69.1%] white; mean [SD] age, 55.7 [9.59] years; median [range] follow-up, 6.9 [0.96-8.15] years). Data from the EGPS consisted of 44 POAG end points from 397 of 500 participants in the placebo group (201 [50.1%] women; 397 [100%] white; mean [SD] age, 57.8 [9.76] years; median [range] follow-up, 4.9 [1.45-5.76] years). The C statistic for the original prediction model was 0.741. When a measure of follow-up IOP was substituted for baseline IOP in this prediction model, the C statistics were as follows: mean follow-up IOP, 0.784; maximum IOP, 0.781; SD of IOP, 0.745; range of IOP, 0.741; and coefficient of variation IOP, 0.729. The C statistics in the EGPS were similarly ordered. No measure of IOP variability, when added to the prediction model that included mean follow-up IOP, age, central corneal thickness, vertical cup-disc ratio, and pattern SD, increased the C statistic by more than 0.007 in either cohort., Conclusions and Relevance: Evidence from the OHTS and the EGPS suggests that long-term variability does not add substantial explanatory power to the prediction model as to which individuals with untreated ocular hypertension will develop POAG.

Objective: Central corneal thickness influences intraocular pressure (IOP) measurement. We examined the central corneal thickness of subjects in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) and determined if central corneal thickness is related to race., Design: Cross-sectional study., Participants: One thousand three hundred one OHTS subjects with central corneal thickness measurements., Intervention: Central corneal thickness was determined with ultrasonic pachymeters of the same make and model at all clinical sites of the OHTS., Main Outcome Measures: Correlation of mean central corneal thickness with race, baseline IOP, refraction, age, gender, systemic hypertension, and diabetes., Results: Mean central corneal thickness was 573.0 ± 39.0 μm. Twenty-four percent of the OHTS subjects had central corneal thickness > 600 μm. Mean central corneal thickness for African American subjects (555.7 ± 40.0 μm; n = 318) was 23 μm thinner than for white subjects (579.0 ± 37.0 μm; P < 0.0001). Other factors associated with greater mean central corneal thickness were younger age, female gender, and diabetes., Conclusions: OHTS subjects have thicker corneas than the general population. African American subjects have thinner corneas than white subjects in the study. The effect of central corneal thickness may influence the accuracy of applanation tonometry in the diagnosis, screening, and management of patients with glaucoma and ocular hypertension., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Importance: Techniques that properly identify patients in whom ocular hypertension (OHTN) is likely to progress to open-angle glaucoma can assist clinicians with deciding on the frequency of monitoring and the potential benefit of early treatment., Objective: To test whether Kalman filtering (KF), a machine learning technique, can accurately forecast mean deviation (MD), pattern standard deviation, and intraocular pressure values 5 years into the future for patients with OHTN., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was a secondary analysis of data from patients with OHTN from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study, performed between February 1994 and March 2009. Patients underwent tonometry and perimetry every 6 months for up to 15 years. A KF (KF-OHTN) model was trained, validated, and tested to assess how well it could forecast MD, pattern standard deviation, and intraocular pressure at up to 5 years, and the forecasts were compared with results from the actual trial. Kalman filtering for OHTN was compared with a previously developed KF for patients with high-tension glaucoma (KF-HTG) and 3 traditional forecasting algorithms. Statistical analysis for the present study was performed between May 2018 and May 2019., Main Outcomes and Measures: Prediction error and root-mean-square error at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months for MD, pattern standard deviation, and intraocular pressure., Results: Among 1407 eligible patients (2806 eyes), 809 (57.5%) were female and the mean (SD) age at baseline was 57.5 (9.6) years. For 2124 eyes with sufficient measurements, KF-OHTN forecast MD values 60 months into the future within 0.5 dB of the actual value for 696 eyes (32.8%), 1.0 dB for 1295 eyes (61.0%), and 2.5 dB for 1980 eyes (93.2%). Among the 5 forecasting algorithms tested, KF-OHTN achieved the lowest root-mean-square error (1.72 vs 1.85-4.28) for MD values 60 months into the future. For the subset of eyes that progressed to open-angle glaucoma, KF-OHTN and KF-HTG forecast MD values 60 months into the future within 1 dB of the actual value for 30 eyes (68.2%; 95% CI, 54.4%-82.0%) and achieved the lowest root-mean-square error among all models., Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that machine learning algorithms such as KF can accurately forecast MD, pattern standard deviation, and intraocular pressure 5 years into the future for many patients with OHTN. These algorithms may aid clinicians in managing OHTN in their patients.

Purpose: To assess the impact of a masked Endpoint Committee on estimates of the incidence of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) treatment efficacy and statistical power of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study-Phase 1, 1994-2002 (OHTS-1)., Design: Retrospective interrater reliability analysis of endpoint attribution by the Endpoint Committee., Methods: After study closeout, we recalculated estimates of endpoint incidence, treatment efficacy, and statistical power using all-cause endpoints and POAG endpoints. To avoid bias, only the first endpoint per participant is included in this report., Results: The Endpoint Committee reviewed 267 first endpoints from 1636 participants. The Endpoint Committee attributed 58% (155 of 267) of the endpoints to POAG. The incidence of all-cause endpoints vs POAG endpoints was 19.5% and 13.2%, respectively, in the observation group and 13.1% and 5.8%, respectively, in the medication group. Treatment effect for all-cause endpoints was a 33% reduction in risk (relative risk = 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] of 0.54-0.84) and a 56% reduction in risk for POAG endpoints (relative risk = 0.44, 95% CI of 0.31-0.61). Post hoc statistical power for detecting treatment effect was 0.94 for all-cause endpoints and 0.99 for POAG endpoints., Conclusion: Endpoint Committee adjudication of endpoints improved POAG incidence estimates, increased statistical power, and increased calculated treatment effect by 23%. An Endpoint Committee should be considered in therapeutic trials when common ocular and systemic comorbidities, other than the target condition, could compromise study results., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: To identify results from the Ocular Hypertension Study that can aid patients and clinicians to make evidence-based decisions about the management of ocular hypertension., Design: Perspective., Results: At 60 months, the cumulative frequency of developing primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) was 4.4% in the medication group and 9.5% in the observation group (hazard ratio for medication, 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.27-0.59; P < .0001). At 13 years the cumulative proportion of participants who developed POAG was 0.22 (95% CI 0.19-0.25) in the original observation group and 0.16 (95% CI 0.13-0.19) in the original medication group (complementary log-log x 2 P = .009). A 5-factor model (older age, higher IOP, thinner central corneal thickness, larger cup-to-disc ratio, and higher visual field pattern standard deviation) separated participants at high and low risk of developing POAG., Conclusions: Clinicians and patients can make evidence-based decisions about the management of ocular hypertension using the risk model and considering patient age, medical status, life expectancy, and personal preference., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: To analyze optic disc hemorrhages (DH) associated with primary open-angle glaucoma by quantifying their geometric profile and comparing their densitometry with hemorrhages from retinal vein occlusions (RVO) and retinal macroaneurysms (MA), which have venous and arterial sources of bleeding, respectively., Design: Retrospective cross-sectional study., Methods: Setting: Massachusetts Eye & Ear., Population: Fundus images of DH (n = 40), MA (n = 14), and RVO (n = 25) were identified. Patient clinical backgrounds and demographics were obtained., Main Outcome Measures: Grayscale pixel intensity units of hemorrhages and adjacent arteriole and venule over the same background tissue were measured. Densitometry differentials (arteriole or venule minus hemorrhage [ΔA and ΔV, respectively]) were calculated. The ratios of length (radial) to midpoint width for DH were calculated. Mean ΔA and ΔV between groups were compared with t tests. Multiple linear regression assessed the relation of retinal hemorrhage diagnosis to ΔA and ΔV and of DH shape to ΔA and ΔV., Results: Mean (± standard deviation) ΔA and ΔV for DH (6.9 ± 7.1 and -4.7 ± 8.0 pixel intensity units, respectively) and MA (5.3 ± 5.9 and -6.0 ± 4.6, respectively) were comparable (P ≥ .43). Mean ΔA (14.6 ± 7.7) and ΔV (6.4 ± 6.3) for RVO were significantly higher compared to DH and MA (P < .0001) and remained significant in multivariable analyses. A unit increase in DH length-to-width ratio was associated with 1.2 (0.5) and 1.3 (0.5) pixel intensity unit (standard error) decrease in ΔA and ΔV, respectively (P ≤ .014)., Conclusions: DH have densitometry profiles comparable to MA and different from RVO, suggesting that DH in glaucoma have an arterial origin., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background/aims: The objective of this study is to evaluate the accuracy and speed of trainees and experienced glaucoma specialists using the MatchedFlicker software against the manual examination of stereoscopic disc photographs for detecting glaucomatous optic disc change., Methods: Three experienced glaucoma specialists, two resident ophthalmologists and one glaucoma fellow from multiple institutions independently evaluated the same 140 image pairs from 100 glaucomatous/ocular hypertensive eyes using a handheld stereo viewer and the MatchedFlicker programme. Fifty had progression to glaucoma as determined by the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) Optic Disc Reading Group and endpoint committee, and 50 more were negative controls for progression with photos taken a few minutes apart. Twenty photo pairs from each of the two groups were duplicated for reviewer variability analysis. The initial viewing method was randomised and then alternated for each group of 70 image pairs. Reviewer accuracy and evaluation time for each method were measured., Results: Evaluators averaged 8.6 s faster per image pair (26%) with the MatchedFlicker programme than with the stereo viewer (p=0.0007). Evaluators correctly identified more image pairs when using the MatchedFlicker software over the stereo viewer (p=0.0003). There was no significant difference between the expert and trainee group in speed or overall accuracy for either method. Experts were significantly more consistent than trainees with the duplicate image pairs (p=0.029). Trainees appeared more reluctant to designate eyes as showing glaucoma progression than experts., Conclusions: Both expert glaucoma specialists and ophthalmologists in various stages of training had greater accuracy and speed with the MatchedFlicker programme than with a handheld stereoscopic viewer., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Purpose: Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is a major cause of blindness and visual disability. Several genetic risk factors for POAG and optic nerve features have been identified. We measured the relative risk for glaucoma that these factors contribute to participants in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS)., Design: Comparative series., Participants: One thousand fifty-seven of 1636 participants (65%) of the OHTS were enrolled in this genetics ancillary study., Methods: Samples of DNA were available from 1057 OHTS participants. Of these, 209 developed POAG (cases) and 848 did not develop glaucoma (controls) between 1994 and 2009. The frequencies of 13 risk alleles previously associated with POAG or with optic disc features in other cohorts were compared between POAG cases and controls in the OHTS cohort using analyses of variance. The 2 largest subgroups, non-Hispanic whites (n = 752; 70.7%) and blacks (n = 249, 23.7%), also were analyzed separately. The probability of glaucoma developing over the course of the OHTS was compared between participants stratified for transmembrane and coiled-coil domains 1 (TMCO1) risk alleles using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses., Main Outcome Measures: Association of POAG with known genetic factors., Results: No association was detected between the known POAG risk alleles when the OHTS cohort was examined as a whole. However, in the subgroup of non-Hispanic whites, allele frequencies at the TMCO1 locus were statistically different between cases and controls (P = 0.00028). By 13 years, non-Hispanic white participants with TMCO1 risk alleles had a 12% higher cumulative frequency of glaucoma developing than participants with no TMCO1 risk alleles. Moreover, the Cox proportional hazard analysis demonstrated that TMCO1 alleles increased relative risk comparable with that of some previously analyzed clinical measures (i.e., intraocular pressure)., Conclusions: The size of the OHTS cohort and its composition of 2 large racial subgroups may limit its power to detect some glaucoma risk factors. However, TMCO1 genotype was found to increase the risk of glaucoma developing among non-Hispanic whites, the largest racial subgroup in the OHTS cohort, at a magnitude similar to clinical predictors of disease that long have been associated with glaucoma., (Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Noncoding microRNAs (miRNAs) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of glaucoma. We aimed to identify common variants in miRNA coding genes (MIR) associated with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG)., Methods: Using the NEIGHBORHOOD data set (3853 cases/33,480 controls with European ancestry), we first assessed the relation between 85 variants in 76 MIR genes and overall POAG. Subtype-specific analyses were performed in high-tension glaucoma (HTG) and normal-tension glaucoma subsets. Second, we examined the expression of miR-182, which was associated with POAG, in postmortem human ocular tissues (ciliary body, cornea, retina, and trabecular meshwork [TM]), using miRNA sequencing (miRNA-Seq) and droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). Third, miR-182 expression was also examined in human aqueous humor (AH) by using miRNA-Seq. Fourth, exosomes secreted from primary human TM cells were examined for miR-182 expression by using miRNA-Seq. Fifth, using ddPCR we compared miR-182 expression in AH between five HTG cases and five controls., Results: Only rs76481776 in MIR182 gene was associated with POAG after adjustment for multiple comparisons (odds ratio [OR] = 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11-1.42, P = 0.0002). Subtype analysis indicated that the association was primarily in the HTG subset (OR = 1.26, 95% CI: 1.08-1.47, P = 0.004). The risk allele T has been associated with elevated miR-182 expression in vitro. Data from ddPCR and miRNA-Seq confirmed miR-182 expression in all examined ocular tissues and TM-derived exosomes. Interestingly, miR-182 expression in AH was 2-fold higher in HTG patients than nonglaucoma controls (P = 0.03) without controlling for medication treatment., Conclusions: Our integrative study is the first to associate rs76481776 with POAG via elevated miR-182 expression.

This study evaluated in vivo imaging capabilities and safety of qualitative monitoring of oxygen saturation of hemoglobin (sO2) of rabbit ciliary body tissues obtained with acoustic resolution (AR) photoacoustic tomography (PAT). AR PAT was used to collect trans-scleral images from ciliary body vasculature of seven New Zealand White rabbits. The PAT sO2 measurements were obtained under the following conditions: when systemic sO2 as measured by pulse oximetry was between 100% and 99% (level 1); systemic sO2 as measured by pulse oximetry was between 98% and 90% (level 2); and systemic sO2 as measured by pulse oximetry was less than 90% (level 3). Following imaging, histological analysis of ocular tissue was conducted to evaluate for possible structural damage caused by the AR PAT imaging. AR PAT was able to resolve anatomical structures of the anterior segment of the eye, viewed through the cornea or anterior sclera. Histological studies revealed no ocular damage. On average, sO2 values (%) obtained with AR PAT were lower than sO2 values obtained with pulse oximetry (all p < 0.001): 86.28 ± 4.16 versus 99.25 ± 0.28, 84.09 ± 1.81 vs. 95.3 ± 2.6, and 64.49 ± 7.27 vs. 71.15 ± 10.21 for levels 1, 2 and 3 respectively. AR PAT imaging modality is capable of qualitative monitoring for deep tissue sO2 in rabbits. Further studies are needed to validate and modify the AR PAT modality specifically for use in human eyes. Having a safe, non-invasive method of in vivo imaging of sO2 in the anterior segment is important to studies evaluating the role of oxidative damage, hypoxia and ischemia in pathogenesis of ocular diseases., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Purpose: To identify objective, quantitative optic nerve head (ONH) structural features and model the contributions of glaucoma., Methods: Baseline stereoscopic optic disc images of 1635 glaucoma-free participants at risk for developing primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) were collected as part of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study. A stereo correspondence algorithm designed for fundus images was applied to extract the three-dimensional (3D) information about the ONH. Principal component analysis was used to identify ONH 3D structural features and the contributions of demographic features, clinical variables, and disease were modeled using linear regression and linear component analysis. The computationally identified features were evaluated based on associations with glaucoma and ability to predict which participants would develop POAG., Results: The computationally identified features were significantly associated with future POAG, POAG-related demographics (age, ethnicity), and clinical measurements (horizontal and vertical cup-to-disc ratio, central corneal thickness, and refraction). Models predicting future POAG development using the OHTS baseline data and STEP features achieved an AUC of 0.722 in cross-validation testing. This was a significant improvement over using only demographics (age, sex, and ethnicity), which had an AUC of 0.599., Conclusions: Methods for identifying objective, quantitative measurements of 3D ONH structure were developed using a large dataset. The identified features were significantly associated with POAG and POAG-related variables. Further, these features increased predictive model accuracy in predicting future POAG. The results indicate that the computationally identified features might be useful in POAG early screening programs or as endophenotypes to investigate POAG genetics.

Purpose: To compare rates of topographic change in ocular hypertensive eyes that develop primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) compared to eyes that do not, and to identify factors that influence the rate of change., Design: Longitudinal, randomized clinical trial., Methods: Four hundred forty-one participants (832 eyes) in the Confocal Scanning Laser Ophthalmoscopy Ancillary Study to the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study were included. POAG was defined as repeatable visual field, photography-based optic disc changes, or both. The rate of topographic change in the 52 participants (66 eyes) who developed POAG was compared with that of participants who did not develop POAG using multivariable mixed effects models., Results: In both univariate and multivariate analyses, the rate of rim area loss was significantly faster in eyes in which POAG developed than in eyes in which it did not (univariate mean, -0.0131 mm(2)/year and -0.0026 mm(2)/year, respectively). The significantly faster rate of rim area loss in black persons found in the univariate analysis did not remain significant when baseline disc area was included in the model. In multivariate analyses, the rate of rim area loss and other topographic parameters also was significantly faster in eyes with worse baseline visual field pattern standard deviation and higher intraocular pressure during follow-up. Moreover, a significant rate of rim area loss was detected in eyes in which POAG did not develop (P < .0001). The rate of rim area loss in eyes with an optic disc POAG endpoint was significantly faster than in those with a visual field POAG endpoint., Conclusions: The rate of rim area loss is approximately 5 times faster in eyes in which POAG developed compared with eyes in which it did not. These results suggest that measuring the rate of structural change can provide important information for the clinical management of ocular hypertensive patients. Additional follow-up is needed to determine whether the statistically significant change in the eyes in which POAG did not develop represents normal aging or glaucomatous change not detected by conventional methods., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Longitudinal testing plays a key role in glaucoma management. Variability between visits hampers the ability to monitor progression. It has previously been shown that average intraocular pressure (IOP) exhibits seasonal fluctuations. This study examines whether visual field sensitivity also exhibits seasonal fluctuations and seeks to determine whether such fluctuations are correlated to seasonal IOP effects., Design: Comparative case series., Participants: A total of 33 873 visits by 1636 participants enrolled in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study. Participants were split into 6 geographic zones according to the prevailing climate in their location., Testing: At each visit, standard automated perimetry was conducted on each eye, and IOP was measured., Main Outcome Measures: Mixed effects regression models were formed to look for sinusoidal periodic effects on the change in perimetric mean deviation since the last visit (ΔMD) and on IOP, both overall and within each zone., Results: When all the data were included, a significant seasonal effect on ΔMD was found with magnitude 0.06 dB, peaking in February (P < 0.001). Five of the 6 geographic zones exhibited significant seasonal effects on ΔMD, peaking between January and April, with magnitudes ranging from 0.04 dB (P = 0.049) to 0.21 dB (P < 0.001). Zones with greater climactic variation showed larger seasonal effects on ΔMD. All 6 zones exhibited a seasonal effect on IOP, peaking in January or February, with magnitudes ranging from 0.14 to 0.39 mmHg (P ≤ 0.02 in all cases). However, there was no evidence of a significant association between the magnitudes or dates of peaks of the 2 seasonal effects., Conclusions: The mean deviation was significantly higher in winter than in summer. There is no evidence of an association with seasonal IOP fluctuations. The cause of the seasonal effect on visual field sensitivity is unknown. These findings may help shed light on the glaucomatous disease process and aid efforts to reduce test-retest variability., (Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: Trend analysis techniques to detect glaucomatous progression typically assume a constant rate of change. This study uses data from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study to assess whether this assumption decreases sensitivity to changes in progression rate, by including earlier periods of stability., Methods: Series of visual fields (mean 24 per eye) completed at 6-month intervals from participants randomized initially to observation were split into subseries before and after the initiation of treatment (the "split-point"). The mean deviation rate of change (MDR) was derived using these entire subseries, and using only the window length (W) tests nearest the split-point, for different window lengths of W tests. A generalized estimating equation model was used to detect changes in MDR occurring at the split-point., Results: Using shortened subseries with W = 7 tests, the MDR slowed by 0.142 dB/y upon initiation of treatment (P < 0.001), and the proportion of eyes showing "rapid deterioration" (MDR <-0.5 dB/y with P < 5%) decreased from 11.8% to 6.5% (P < 0.001). Using the entire sequence, no significant change in MDR was detected (P = 0.796), and there was no change in the proportion of eyes progressing (P = 0.084). Window lengths 6 ≤ W ≤ 9 produced similar benefits., Conclusions: Event analysis revealed a beneficial treatment effect in this dataset. This effect was not detected by linear trend analysis applied to entire series, but was detected when using shorter subseries of length between six and nine fields. Using linear trend analysis on the entire field sequence may not be optimal for detecting and monitoring progression. Nonlinear analyses may be needed for long series of fields. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00000125.).

Objective: To compare rates of visual field (VF) change in ocular hypertensive eyes with and without optic dischemorrhage (DH)., Methods: Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study subjects(minimum 10 reliable VF tests, followed up 5 years) were included. Trend analyses of VF sequences over time of DH and non-DH eyes were assessed by regression of mean deviation (MDR) and pointwise linear regression (PLR). The main outcome measures were rates of VF change in DH and non-DH eyes., Results: Two thousand six hundred seven eyes (1378 participants) were included. The mean (SD) number of VF tests per eye was 23.7 (4.9) spanning a mean (SD) of 12.2 (2.0) years. At least 1 DH was detected in 187 eyes(7.2%), of which 52 eyes had recurrent DH. Mean deviation rate of change was significantly worse in DH compared with non-DH eyes (mean [SD], −0.17 [0.27] vs−0.07 [0.19] dB/y; P<.01). Significant PLR progression occurred more frequently in eyes with DH (odds ratio,3.6; P<.01), which increased when 2 or more DHs were present (odds ratio, 4.2; P=.01). Eyes initially randomized to treatment were less likely to have a DH during follow-up., Conclusions: Eyes with DH had more rapid VF deterioration when assessed by global (MDR) or local (PLR)trend analysis than eyes without DH. Eyes with recurrent DH had similar rates of global VF change (MDR)when compared with eyes with a single DH but reached criteria for rapid PLR change more often. Intraocular pressure reduction in ocular hypertension reduces the risk of developing a DH. Ocular hypertensive eyes with DH should be monitored closely and may need more aggressive therapy., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000125

Background: Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is one of the leading causes of blindness in the United States and worldwide. While lowering intraocular pressure (IOP) has been proven to be effective in delaying or preventing the onset of POAG in many large-scale prospective studies, one of the recent hot topics in glaucoma research is the effect of IOP fluctuation (IOP lability) on the risk of developing POAG in treated and untreated subjects., Method: In this paper, we analyzed data from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) and the European Glaucoma Prevention Study (EGPS) for subjects who had at least 2 IOP measurements after randomization prior to POAG diagnosis. We assessed the interrelationships among the baseline covariates, the changes of post-randomization IOP over time, and the risk of developing POAG, using a latent class analysis (LCA) which allows us to identify distinct patterns (latent classes) of IOP trajectories., Result: The IOP change in OHTS was best described by 6 latent classes differentiated primarily by the mean IOP levels during follow-up. Subjects with high post-randomization mean IOP level and/or large variability were more likely to develop POAG. Five baseline factors were found to be significantly predictive of the IOP classification in OHTS: treatment assignment, baseline IOP, gender, race, and history of hypertension. In separate analyses of EGPS, LCA identified different patterns of IOP change from those in OHTS, but confirmed that subjects with high mean level and large variability were at high risk to develop POAG., Conclusion: LCA provides a useful tool to assess the impact of post-randomization IOP level and fluctuation on the risk of developing POAG in patients with ocular hypertension. The incorporation of post-randomization IOP can improve the overall predictive ability of the original model that included only baseline risk factors.

Purpose: To determine the change in intraocular pressure (IOP) after cataract extraction in the observation group of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study., Design: Comparative case series., Participants: Forty-two participants (63 eyes) who underwent cataract surgery in at least 1 eye during the study and a control group of 743 participants (743 eyes) who did not undergo cataract surgery., Methods: We defined the "split date" as the study visit date at which cataract surgery was reported in the cataract surgery group and a corresponding date in the control group. Preoperative IOP was defined as the mean IOP of up to 3 visits before the split date. Postoperative IOP was the mean IOP of up to 3 visits including the split date (0, 6, and 12 months' with "0 months" equaling the split date). In both groups, we censored data after initiation of ocular hypotensive medication or glaucoma surgery of any kind., Main Outcome Measures: Difference in preoperative and postoperative IOP., Results: In the cataract group, postoperative IOP was significantly lower than the preoperative IOP (19.8 ± 3.2 mmHg vs. 23.9 ± 3.2 mmHg; P<0.001). The postoperative IOP remained lower than the preoperative IOP for at least 36 months. The average decrease in postoperative IOP from preoperative IOP was 16.5%, and 39.7% of eyes had postoperative IOP ≥ 20% below preoperative IOP. A greater reduction in postoperative IOP occurred in the eyes with the highest preoperative IOP. In the control group, the corresponding mean IOPs were 23.8 ± 3.6 before the split date and 23.4 ± 3.9 after the split date., Conclusions: Cataract surgery decreases IOP in patients with ocular hypertension over a long period of time., (Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: The goal in this study was to compare rates of visual field (VF) change before and after the initiation of treatment in participants originally randomized to the observation arm of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS)., Methods: We included OHTS participants originally randomized to observation and excluded those who reached non-POAG endpoints. VF progression was determined using trend analysis. Global and localized rates of VF change were calculated based on linear regression over time of mean deviation (MD) and threshold sensitivity values for each test location. MD rates (MDR) and pointwise linear regression (PLR) analysis were also assessed using six VF tests before and after the initiation of treatment. A PLR endpoint was defined as a VF test location progressing faster than -0.5 dB/year at P < 0.01., Results: We included 780 eyes from 432 OHTS participants. Following the initiation of treatment, the mean MDR decreased from -0.23 ± 0.6 to -0.06 ± 0.5 dB/year (P < 0.01) and the number of VF locations reaching a PLR endpoint decreased from 2.13 ± 6.0 to 1.00 ± 4.0 (P < 0.01). The benefit of treatment was significant both among participants who did not convert (-0.17 ± 0.6 vs. -0.01 ± 0.5 dB/year, P < 0.01) and among those who converted to glaucoma (-0.51 ± 0.8 vs. -0.27 ± 0.7 dB/year, P < 0.01) based on the OHTS event-based endpoint., Conclusions: The initiation of ocular hypotensive medication among OHTS participants originally randomized to observation significantly reduced the velocity of VF progression.

Purpose: To determine if the accuracy of the baseline prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in patients with ocular hypertension can be improved by correcting intraocular pressure (IOP) for central corneal thickness (CCT)., Design: Reanalysis of the baseline prediction model for the development of POAG from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) substituting IOP adjusted for CCT using 5 different correction formulae for unadjusted IOP., Participants: A total of 1433 of 1636 participants randomized to OHTS who had complete baseline data for factors in the prediction model: age, IOP, CCT, vertical cup-to-disc ratio (VCDR), and pattern standard deviation (PSD)., Methods: Reanalysis of the prediction model for the risk of developing POAG using the same baseline variables (age, IOP, CCT, VCDR, and PSD) except that IOP was adjusted for CCT using correction formulae. A separate Cox proportional hazards model was run using IOP adjusted for CCT by each of the 5 formulae published to date. Models were run including and excluding CCT., Main Outcome Measures: Predictive accuracy of each Cox proportional hazards model was assessed using the c-statistic and calibration chi-square., Results: C-statistics for prediction models that used IOP adjusted for CCT by various formulas ranged from 0.75 to 0.77, no better than the original prediction model (0.77) that did not adjust IOP for CCT. Calibration chi-square was acceptable for all models. Baseline IOP, whether adjusted for CCT or not, was statistically significant in all models including those with CCT in the same model. The CCT was statistically significant in all models including those with IOP adjusted for CCT in the same model., Conclusions: The calculation of individual risk for developing POAG in ocular hypertensive individuals is simpler and equally accurate using IOP and CCT as measured, rather than applying an adjustment formula to correct IOP for CCT., (Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: To assess the rate of change of visual field (VF) mean deviation (MD) in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS)., Methods: OHTS data were filtered to exclude eyes that had fewer than 10 reliable VFs or less than 5 years of follow-up or that reached a nonglaucomatous endpoint. The rate of change of MD (MDR) was calculated for each eye. Differences were sought between groups of eyes differing in primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) outcome, how POAG was determined, and original randomization., Results: In total, 2609 eyes (1379 participants) met the selection criteria. The mean MDR was -0.08 ± 0.20 dB/y (±SD). POAG eyes (n = 359) had significantly worse MDRs (-0.26 ± 0.36 dB/y) than non-POAG eyes (n = 2250; -0.05 ± 0.14 dB/y; P < 0.001). Eyes that reached POAG endpoints based on only VF change (n = 74; -0.29 ± 0.31 dB/y) or only optic disc change (n = 158; -0.12 ± 0.19 dB/y) had significantly worse MDRs than non-POAG eyes (both P < 0.001). Eyes that reached POAG endpoints for both VF and optic disc change (n = 127) deteriorated more rapidly (-0.42 ± 0.46 dB/y) than eyes showing only VF change (P = 0.017) or only optic disc change (P < 0.001). There was not a significant association between MDR and original OHTS randomization (observe vs. treat, P = 0.168)., Conclusions: Eyes that develop POAG have significantly worse MDRs than eyes that do not. Eyes that reached endpoints due to both VF and optic disc change had worse MDRs than eyes displaying change in only one of these. MDR was not significantly associated with randomization, suggesting that MDR may not be the best measure of VF change in early-stage POAG. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00000125.).

Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is among the leading causes of blindness in the United States and worldwide. While numerous prospective clinical trials have convincingly shown that elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) is a leading risk factor for the development of POAG, an increasingly debated issue in recent years is the effect of IOP fluctuation on the risk of developing POAG. In many applications, this question is addressed via a "naïve" two-step approach where some sample-based estimates (e.g., standard deviation) are first obtained as surrogates for the "true" within-subject variability and then included in Cox regression models as covariates. However, estimates from two-step approach are more likely to suffer from the measurement error inherent in sample-based summary statistics. In this paper we propose a joint model to assess the question whether individuals with different levels of IOP variability have different susceptibility to POAG. In our joint model, the trajectory of IOP is described by a linear mixed model that incorporates patient-specific variance, the time to POAG is fit using a semi-parametric or parametric distribution, and the two models are linked via patient-specific random effects. Parameters in the joint model are estimated under Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with Gibbs sampling. The method is applied to data from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) and the European Glaucoma Prevention Study (EGPS), two large-scale multi-center randomized trials on the prevention of POAG.

Objective: To assess agreement between longitudinal and cross-sectional analyses for determining visual field progression in data from the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study., Methods: Visual field data from 3088 eyes of 1570 participants (median follow-up, 7 years) were analyzed. Longitudinal analyses were performed using change probability with total and pattern deviation, and cross-sectional analyses were performed using the glaucoma hemifield test, corrected pattern standard deviation, and mean deviation. The rates of mean deviation and general height change were compared to estimate the degree of diffuse loss in emerging glaucoma., Results: Agreement on progression in longitudinal and cross-sectional analyses ranged from 50% to 61% and remained nearly constant across a wide range of criteria. In contrast, agreement on absence of progression ranged from 97.0% to 99.7%, being highest for the stricter criteria. Analyses of pattern deviation were more conservative than analyses of total deviation, with a 3 to 5 times lesser incidence of progression. Most participants developing field loss had both diffuse and focal changes., Conclusions: Despite considerable overall agreement, 40% to 50% of eyes identified as having progressed with either longitudinal or cross-sectional analyses were identified with only one of the analyses. Because diffuse change is part of early glaucomatous damage, pattern deviation analyses may underestimate progression in patients with ocular hypertension.

Objective: To determine whether adjusting the intraocular pressure (IOP) change of the trial eye for the IOP change of the fellow eye (i.e., monocular trial) is a better assessment of medication response than testing each eye independently., Design: Analysis of data from a prospective, randomized, clinical trial., Participants: Two hundred six participants with ocular hypertension randomized to the observation group and later started on a topical prostaglandin analog (PGA)., Methods: Participants were started on a topical PGA in 1 eye and returned in approximately 1 month to determine medication response. The IOP response of the trial eye was determined by the IOP change between baseline and 1 month in the trial eye alone (unadjusted method) and by adjusting for the IOP change in the fellow eye between the same visits (adjusted method). Our "gold standard" for medication response was the IOP change in the trial eye between up to 3 pre- and 3 posttreatment visits on the same medication. Pearson correlation was used to compare the gold standard with the unadjusted and adjusted methods. In addition, symmetry of IOP response between trial and fellow eyes to the same medication was determined by correlating the trial eye IOP change between up to 3 pre- and 3 posttreatment visits to the fellow eye IOP change between the same visits., Main Outcome Measures: Correlations of IOP change of the trial eye using the gold standard to the IOP change of the trial eye using the unadjusted and adjusted methods., Results: The correlations of IOP change using the gold standard to the IOP change using the unadjusted and adjusted methods were r = 0.40 and r = 0.41, respectively. The correlation of IOP change of both eyes between the same pre- and posttreatment visits was r = 0.81., Conclusions: The monocular trial (i.e., adjusted method) appears equivalent to testing each eye independently (i.e., unadjusted method); however, neither method is adequate to determine medication response to topical PGAs. Both eyes have a similar IOP response to the same PGA. Further studies to understand IOP fluctuation are necessary to improve current methods of assessing medication response., Financial Disclosure(s): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references., (Copyright © 2010 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To evaluate the predictive ability of baseline confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (CSLO) Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS) for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) and to compare it with the Moorfields regression analysis (MRA) classification, other topographic optic disc parameters, and stereophotograph-based cup-to-disc ratio., Design: Longitudinal, randomized clinical trial., Participants: We included 857 eyes of 438 participants in the CSLO Ancillary Study to the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) with good quality baseline CSLO images., Methods: The ability of baseline GPS, MRA, and optic disc parameters to predict the development of POAG was evaluated in univariate and multivariable proportional hazard ratio analyses. Likelihood ratios and positive and negative predictive values were compared., Main Outcome Measures: The POAG end point as determined by repeatable changes in the visual field or optic disc., Results: Sixty-four eyes of 50 CSLO Ancillary Study participants developed POAG. Median time to reach a POAG end point was 72.3 months. The 93 eyes of 388 participants not reaching endpoint were followed for a median of 124.9 months. Baseline GPS identified many more eyes as outside normal limits than the MRA. In multivariable analyses, all regional and global baseline GPS indices were significantly associated with the development of POAG; hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) ranged from 2.92 to 3.74 for an outside normal limits result. The MRA indices were also significantly associated with the development of POAG in multivariable analyses. In addition, the predictive ability of baseline GPS, MRA and stereometric parameters were similar to the predictive ability of models using photograph-based horizontal cup-to-disc ratio., Conclusions: These results suggest that baseline GPS, MRA, and stereoparameters alone or when combined with baseline clinical and demographic factors can be used to predict the development of POAG end points in OHTS participants and are as effective as stereophotographs for estimating the risk of developing POAG in ocular hypertensive subjects., (Copyright © 2010 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To assess the influence of expected life span on the cost-effectiveness of treating ocular hypertension to prevent primary open-angle glaucoma., Methods: We used a Markov simulation model to estimate the cost and benefit of ocular hypertension treatment over a person's remaining life. We examined the influence of age on the cost-effectiveness decision in 2 ways: (1) by evaluating specific age cohorts to assess the influence of age at the initiation of treatment; and (2) by evaluating the influence of a specific life span., Results: At a willingness to pay $50,000/quality-adjusted life year to $100,000/quality-adjusted life year, treatment of people with a 2% or greater annual risk of developing glaucoma was cost-effective for people aged 45 years with a life expectancy of at least 18 remaining years. However, to be cost-effective, a person aged 55 years must have a life expectancy of 21 remaining years and someone aged 65 years must have a life expectancy of 23 remaining years., Conclusions: A person with ocular hypertension must have a life expectancy of at least 18 remaining years to justify treatment at a threshold of a 2% or greater annual risk of developing glaucoma. Persons at higher levels of risk require a life expectancy of 7 to 10 additional years to justify treatment.

Objective: To determine the incidence of retinal vein occlusion (RVO) in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS)., Design: Retrospective analysis of data from a randomized clinical trial., Participants: We included 1636 ocular hypertensive participants with a mean follow-up of 9.1 years. Participants in the medication and observation groups were managed according to their original randomization assignment until June 1, 2002. At that time, the observation participants were offered ocular hypotensive treatment. Data to July 1, 2005, are included in this report., Methods: Occurrences of RVO in study participants, categorized as branch, central or hemicentral vein occlusion, were documented. Potential RVO events were identified by a keyword search of Adverse Event Reports, the Optic Disc Reading Center database, Endpoint Committee reviews, and by response to a written request for information sent to each clinical site. To confirm a potential RVO, the complete OHTS chart was reviewed. Statistical analyses included t tests, chi-square tests and Cox proportional hazards models., Main Outcome Measures: Incidence of RVO., Results: Twenty-six RVOs-5 branch, 14 central, and 7 hemicentral RVOs-were confirmed in 23 participants (15 observation and 8 medication). The 10-year cumulative incidence of RVO was 2.1% in the observation group and 1.4% in the medication group (P = 0.14; log-rank test). At baseline, participants who later developed a RVO were significantly older (65.1 vs 55.3 years; P = 0.01), and had greater horizontal cup-to-disc ratios (P = 0.0004)., Conclusions: Although the incidence of RVO was higher in the observation group than the medication group, this difference did not attain significance. Consistent with some previous studies, older age and greater cup-to-disc ratio were associated with the development of RVO., (Copyright 2010 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To compare the safety and efficacy of earlier vs later treatment in preventing primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in individuals with ocular hypertension., Methods: One thousand six hundred thirty-six individuals with intraocular pressure (IOP) from 24 to 32 mm Hg in 1 eye and 21 to 32 mm Hg in the fellow eye were randomized to observation or to topical ocular hypotensive medication. Median time of treatment in the medication group was 13.0 years. After a median of 7.5 years without treatment, the observation group received medication for a median of 5.5 years. To determine if there is a penalty for delaying treatment, we compared the cumulative proportions of participants who developed POAG at a median follow-up of 13 years in the original observation group and in the original medication group., Main Outcome Measures: Cumulative proportion of participants who developed POAG., Results: The cumulative proportion of participants in the original observation group who developed POAG at 13 years was 0.22 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-0.25), vs 0.16 (95% CI, 0.13-0.19) in the original medication group (P = .009). Among participants at the highest third of baseline risk of developing POAG, the cumulative proportion who developed POAG was 0.40 (95% CI, 0.33-0.46) in the original observation group and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.22-0.34) in the original medication group. There was little evidence of increased adverse events associated with medication., Application to Clinical Practice: Absolute reduction was greatest among participants at the highest baseline risk of developing POAG. Individuals at high risk of developing POAG may benefit from more frequent examinations and early preventive treatment., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000125.

Purpose: To describe variability of intraocular pressure (IOP) measurements within the same eye and between right and left eyes over a 60-month period in participants in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study., Design: Analysis of data from a prospective, randomized clinical trial., Participants: Eight hundred ten participants randomized to the observation group., Methods: Intraocular pressure measurements were obtained at the baseline visit and every 6 months thereafter. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated for IOP measurements in the same eye between visits and for IOP measurements between right and left eyes of participants at each visit. Differences in IOP measurements between visits are reported in percent change (>15%, >20%, and >30%) and in millimeters of mercury (<3 mmHg, 3-5 mmHg, and >5 mmHg). The effects of regression to the mean, consistency in time of day, and sequence of IOP measurement of right and left eyes were examined., Main Outcome Measures: Correlation of IOP measurements between consecutive 6-month visits., Results: The correlation of IOP measurements within the same eye between consecutive visits was r = 0.62, whereas the correlation of IOP measurements between right and left eyes at the same visit was r = 0.72. Thirteen percent of eyes had >20% change in IOP between consecutive visits. Sixty-six percent of eyes had a change in IOP within 3 mmHg, and 10% of eyes had a change in IOP >5 mmHg between visits. Eyes with a higher baseline IOP had a lower IOP at 6 months. There was a stronger correlation of IOP measured within 2 hours of the time of day between visits (r = 0.56) than >2 hours apart (r = 0.39). IOP of the right eye, which was measured first, was 0.3+/-2.8 mmHg higher than the left eye., Conclusions: The variability of IOP measurements in the same eye between consecutive visits is moderate and is greater than the variability of IOP measurements between right and left eyes at the same visit. Factors affecting the variability of IOP measurement include regression to the mean, time of day, and measurement order. Knowledge of variability in IOP and its measurements may help clinicians establish a more accurate baseline IOP, target IOP, and assessment of medication effect.

Objective: To describe how much change, if any, occurs between central corneal thickness (CCT) measurements performed an average of 3.8 years apart in participants in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) and to identify clinical and demographic factors that are associated with changes in CCT, including baseline intraocular pressure, duration and class of ocular hypotensive medication, medical history, and systemic medication., Design: Secondary analysis of data from a randomized clinical trial., Participants: Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study participants. Participants who had undergone incisional intraocular or keratorefractive surgery between CCT measurements were excluded., Testing: The first CCT measurements were performed starting in 1999, and the second measurements were performed starting in 2002. Measurements were performed by OHTS certified technicians using an ultrasonic pachymeter under a standardized protocol., Main Outcome Measure: Central corneal thickness measurement (micrometers)., Results: First and second CCT measurements were available from 73% (1191) of the 1636 OHTS participants randomized. Central corneal thickness decreased a mean rate of -0.74+/-3.5 microm/year between the first and second CCT measurements. The mean medication exposure between first and second CCT measurements in participants originally randomized to observation (n = 595) was 1.1+/-1.6 years, versus 5.0+/-2.7 years in participants originally randomized to medication (n = 596). Central corneal thickness decreased by a mean of 1.0+/-3.4 microm/year among participants originally randomized to observation, compared with 0.5+/-3.5 microm/year among participants originally randomized to medication (P<0.0001). Subgroup analyses suggest that participants treated only with topical prostaglandin analogues (PGAs) between the two CCT measurements had a greater rate of decrease per year than participants treated only with topical beta-blockers., Conclusions: The rate of CCT decrease over 3.8 years is comparable to the cross-sectional age differences reported in the OHTS at the first measurement (0.6 microm/year) and comparable to other cross-sectional studies. Use of topical PGAs may be associated with a slightly higher rate of thinning. The modest age- and drug-related rates of thinning observed are unlikely to influence tonometry or clinical decision-making substantially in most clinical situations.

Objective: To report the impact of visual field quality control (QC) procedures on the rates of visual field unreliability, test parameter errors, and visual field defects attributed to testing artifacts in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS)., Methods: OHTS technicians were certified for perimetry and were required to submit 2 sets of visual fields that met study criteria before testing study participants. The OHTS Visual Field Reading Center (VFRC) evaluated 46,777 visual fields completed by 1618 OHTS participants between February 1994 and December 2003. Visual field QC errors, rates of unreliability, and defects attributed to testing artifacts were assessed. The OHTS QC system addressed 3 areas of clinic performance: (1) test parameter errors, (2) patient data errors, and (3) shipment errors. A visual field was classified as unreliable if any of the reliability indices exceeded the 33% limit. Clinical sites were immediately contacted by the VFRC via fax, e-mail, and/or phone and instructed on how to prevent further testing errors on fields with defects attributed to testing artifacts., Main Outcome Measures: QC errors (test parameter errors) and unreliability rates., Results: A total of 2.4% (1136/ 46,777) of the visual fields were unreliable and 0.23% (107/46,777) had incorrect test parameters. Visual field defects attributed to testing artifacts occurred in approximately 1% (483/46,777) of the visual fields., Conclusions: Prompt transmission of visual fields to the VFRC for ongoing and intensive QC monitoring and rapid feedback to technicians helps to reduce the frequency of unreliable visual fields and incorrect testing parameters. Visual field defects attributed to testing artifacts were infrequent in the OHTS.

Objective: To compare the intraocular pressure (IOP) responses of self-identified African American and white participants in the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study to therapeutic trials of topical, nonselective beta-adrenergic antagonists or prostaglandin analogues., Methods: Multivariate models that adjusted for baseline IOP and corneal thickness were used to estimate IOP response by race. Participants included 536 who were prescribed topical beta-adrenergic antagonists and 191 who were prescribed prostaglandin analogues, 25% of whom were African American., Main Outcome Measure: Intraocular pressure response in the ipsilateral eye after 4 to 6 weeks of a therapeutic trial., Results: Intraocular pressure response to nonselective beta-adrenergic antagonists did not differ between African American and white participants. Intraocular pressure response to prostaglandin analogues was slightly greater in African American participants, but this difference was not statistically significant. With both classes of medication, greater IOP reduction was associated with higher baseline IOP and thinner central corneal measurement., Conclusions: We found no statistically significant differences in IOP response to topical, nonselective beta-adrenergic antagonists or prostaglandin analogues between self-identified African American and white individuals. Application to Clinical Practice Studies of IOP response to medication should statistically adjust for baseline IOP and central corneal thickness. Clinicians should consider factors other than ethnicity when choosing an ocular hypotensive medication for a patient., Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00000125.

Objective: To test the validity and generalizability of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS) prediction model for the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in a large independent sample of untreated ocular hypertensive individuals and to develop a quantitative calculator to estimate the 5-year risk that an individual with ocular hypertension will develop POAG., Design: A prediction model was developed from the observation group of the OHTS and then tested on the placebo group of the European Glaucoma Prevention Study (EGPS) using a z statistic to compare hazard ratios, a c statistic for discrimination, and a calibration chi2 for systematic overestimation/underestimation of predicted risk. The 2 study samples were pooled to increase precision and generalizability of a 5-year predictive model for developing POAG., Participants: The OHTS observation group (n = 819; 6.6 years' median follow-up) and EGPS placebo group (n = 500; 4.8 years' median follow-up)., Testing: Data were collected on demographic characteristics, medical history, ocular examination visual fields (VFs), and optic disc photographs., Main Outcome Measure: Development of reproducible VF abnormality or optic disc progression as determined by masked readers and attributed to POAG by a masked end point committee., Results: The same predictors for the development of POAG were identified independently in both the OHTS observation group and the EGPS placebo group-baseline age, intraocular pressure, central corneal thickness, vertical cup-to-disc ratio, and Humphrey VF pattern standard deviation. The pooled multivariate model for the development of POAG had good discrimination (c statistic, 0.74) and accurate estimation of POAG risk (calibration chi2, 7.05)., Conclusions: The OHTS prediction model was validated in the EGPS placebo group. A calculator to estimate the 5-year risk of developing POAG, based on the pooled OHTS-EGPS predictive model, has high precision and will be useful for clinicians and patients in deciding the frequency of tests and examinations during follow-up and advisability of initiating preventive treatment.

Purpose: To compare the rates of detection of optic disc hemorrhages by clinical examination and by review of optic disc photographs at the Optic Disc Reading Center (ODRC), to assess the incidence of and the predictive factors for disc hemorrhages in the annual disc photographs of the Ocular Hypertension Treatment Study (OHTS), and to determine whether optic disc hemorrhages predict the development of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in the OHTS., Design: Cohort study., Participants: Three thousand two hundred thirty-six eyes of 1618 participants., Methods: Both eyes of participants were examined for optic disc hemorrhages every 6 months by clinical examination, with dilated fundus examinations every 12 months, and by annual review of stereoscopic disc photographs at the ODRC., Main Outcome Measures: Incidence of optic disc hemorrhages and POAG end points., Results: Median follow-up was 96.3 months. Stereophotography-confirmed glaucomatous optic disc hemorrhages were detected in 128 eyes of 123 participants before the POAG end point. Twenty-one cases (16%) were detected by both clinical examination and review of photographs, and 107 cases (84%) were detected only by review of photographs (P<0.0001). Baseline factors associated with disc hemorrhages were older age, thinner corneas, larger vertical cup-to-disc ratio, larger pattern standard deviation index on perimetry, family history of glaucoma, and smoking status. The occurrence of a disc hemorrhage increased the risk of developing POAG 6-fold in a univariate analysis (P<0.001; 95% confidence interval, 3.6-10.1) and 3.7-fold in a multivariate analysis that included baseline factors predictive of POAG (P<0.001; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-6.6). The 96-month cumulative incidence of POAG in the eyes without optic disc hemorrhage was 5.2%, compared with 13.6% in the eyes with optic disc hemorrhage. In eyes with a disc hemorrhage in which a POAG end point developed, the median time between the 2 events was 13 months., Conclusions: Review of stereophotographs was more sensitive at detecting optic disc hemorrhage than clinical examination. The occurrence of an optic disc hemorrhage was associated with an increased risk of developing a POAG end point in participants in the OHTS. However, most eyes (86.7%) in which a disc hemorrhage developed have not experienced a POAG end point to date.