Objectives: We investigated whether baseline scores for a self-report trait linked to central mechanisms predict 1 year pain outcomes in the Knee Pain in the Community cohort., Method: 1471 participants reported knee pain at baseline and responded to a 1-year follow-up questionnaire, of whom 204 underwent pressure pain detection thresholds (PPTs) and radiographic assessment at baseline. Logistic and linear regression models estimated the relative risks (RRs) and associations (β) between self-report traits, PPTs and pain outcomes. Discriminative performance for each predictor was compared using receiver-operator characteristics (ROC) curves., Results: Baseline Central Mechanisms trait scores predicted pain persistence (Relative Risk, RR = 2.10, P = 0.001) and persistent pain severity (β = 0.47, P < 0.001), even after adjustment for age, sex, BMI, radiographic scores and symptom duration. Baseline joint-line PPTs also associated with pain persistence (RR range = 0.65 to 0.68, P < 0.02), but only in univariate models. Lower baseline medial joint-line PPT was associated with persistent pain severity (β = -0.29, P = 0.013) in a fully adjusted model. The Central Mechanisms trait model showed good discrimination of pain persistence cases from resolved pain cases (Area Under the Curve, AUC = 0.70). The discrimination power of other predictors (PPTs (AUC range = 0.51 to 0.59), radiographic OA (AUC = 0.62), age, sex and BMI (AUC range = 0.51 to 0.64), improved significantly (P < 0.05) when the central mechanisms trait was included in each logistic regression model (AUC range = 0.69 to 0.74)., Conclusion: A simple summary self-report Central Mechanisms trait score may indicate a contribution of central mechanisms to poor knee pain prognosis., Competing Interests: Competing interests Kehinde Akin-Akinyosoye: None declared. Aliya Sarmanova: None declared. Gwen Sascha Fernandes: None declared. Nadia Frowd: None declared. Laura Marshall: None declared. Joanne Stocks: None declared. Ana Valdes: None declared. Daniel McWilliams: None declared. Michael Doherty: None declared. Weiya Zhang: Consultation fees: AstraZeneca (Lesinurad) and Gruenthal (Lesinurad); Speaker fees: Husin (Chinese Society of Rheumatology Annual Congress 2016) and Bioberica (EULAR 2016 symposium) in the past 3 years; Eamonn Ferguson: Royalties: GL assessment for the Paediatric Index of Emotional Distress (PI-ED); Research grants: Co-investigator on the US Defense Medical Research and Development Program (Study to examine psychological processes in suicidal ideation and behaviour), the ESRC (Individual Differences in the Impact of Socio- Economic Events on Health and Well-being), the ESRC (Integrating Prospect theory (Framing Effects) and the Common Sense Model of illness to improve medication compliance in glaucoma patients), Chief Scientists Office – Scotland (A randomised controlled trial to test if a simple anticipated regret manipulation leads to a significant increase in organ donor registrations), DEFRA (Overcoming barriers to uptake of best welfare practice by sheep farmers), Pfizer (Pain phenotypes in rheumatoid arthritis: a patient-centred, stratified approach to optimising disease modifying and analgesic treatments), Arthritis UK Research (Pain Centre) that funds the current work, ESRC PhD studentships on reluctant altruism and Schizophrenia and Empathy; Paid Journal Editorships: Deputy Editor British Journal of Psychology and Associate Editor for Annals of Behavioral Medicine; Honorariums and expenses paid: Speaker at ISBT, Workshops include (i) Right Patient, Right Place, Right Time: When and How to Use the Emergency Department: Health Literacy, Decision-Making and Communication. Unversita Cattolic del Sacro Cuore. Milan, Italy, April 11th-12th, (ii) Taxometrics, Psychometrics and Clinometrics: Stratified Medicine and Assessing Phenotypes. ESRC Advanced Quantitative Methods National Conference, White Rose DTC, Sheffield University, Sheffield, 24th to 25th July 2014, (iii) Personality: Myths, Misconceptions and Misunderstandings – Implications for Current and Future Medical Education, Selection and Training. INReSH London, 10- 11th November, (iv) ABC (America's Blood Centres) 55th Annual Meeting in Washington (24th to 28th March 2017). Motivation and Innovations in Donor Recruitment, Australian Red Cross Transfusion Update Meeting Sydney 2017 (27th to 28th April). (v) What really motivates people to donate and what can we do with what we find out? Australian Red Cross Transfusion Sydney 2017 (26th April). (vi) What really motivates people to donate and what can we do with what we find out. Address to Sydney Office Staff, Australian Red Cross Transfusion Melburne 2017 (1st May). (vii) What really motivates people to donate and what can we do with what we find out. Address to Melbourne Office Staff; External Examiner: External Examiner at Edinburgh University and Goldsmith's and currently at Lancaster University; Presidential roles (unpaid): co-founding president of the British Society for the Psychology of Individual Differences (BSPID). David Walsh: Employment: University of Nottingham as Professor of Rheumatology, Director of Arthritis Research UK Pain Centre and Musculoskeletal Theme lead in the NIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre, with honorary consultant appointments with Sherwood Forest Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust. Paid employments include the management of patients with arthritis pain, and developing and delivering on a programme of research aiming to better understand the mechanisms of arthritis pain in order to improve its treatment; Research grants: Nottingham Hospital Charity N of 1 trial for topical ibuprofen gel and capsaicin cream, NIHR Clinical Research Facility of £2.4 across 5 research themes in Nottingham, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre (musculoskeletal theme) of £23.6 m total award to Nottingham, ERAN Database support, Arthritis Research Campaign Centre Initiative grant Centre of Excellence in Mechanisms of Pain in Arthritis, NIHR Programme: Chronic pain after total knee replacement: better post-operative prevention and management NIHR HTA Sub-Cutaneous Injection of Adalimumab Trial compared with Control (SCIATiC), NIHR HTA Facet Feasibility (FF). Chief Investigator Prof Martin Underwood, University of Warwick, Assessing surgical outcomes for osteoarthritis of the knee following short-term psychological therapy: A single blind feasibility randomised controlled trial; Funds for staff or department: Consultancy for Pfizer Ltd 2017 undertaken through Nottingham University Consultancy Ltd, providing approximately £3,000 to facilitate staff development within the Arthritis Research UK Pain Centre; Non-financial interests: Trustee of the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Network, UK Registered Charity., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)