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Introduction: This study is a retrospective evaluation of the performance of deep learning models that were developed for the detection of COVID-19 from chest x-rays, undertaken with the goal of assessing the suitability of such systems as clinical decision support tools., Methods: Models were trained on the National COVID-19 Chest Imaging Database (NCCID), a UK-wide multi-centre dataset from 26 different NHS hospitals and evaluated on independent multi-national clinical datasets. The evaluation considers clinical and technical contributors to model error and potential model bias. Model predictions are examined for spurious feature correlations using techniques for explainable prediction., Results: Models performed adequately on NHS populations, with performance comparable to radiologists, but generalised poorly to international populations. Models performed better in males than females, and performance varied across age groups. Alarmingly, models routinely failed when applied to complex clinical cases with confounding pathologies and when applied to radiologist defined "mild" cases., Discussion: This comprehensive benchmarking study examines the pitfalls in current practices that have led to impractical model development. Key findings highlight the need for clinician involvement at all stages of model development, from data curation and label definition, to model evaluation, to ensure that all clinical factors and disease features are appropriately considered during model design. This is imperative to ensure automated approaches developed for disease detection are fit-for-purpose in a clinical setting., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest. The author(s) declared that they were an editorial board member of Frontiers, at the time of submission. This had no impact on the peer review process and the final decision., (© 2024 Harkness, Frangi, Zucker and Ravikumar.)

Since the emergence of COVID-19, deep learning models have been developed to identify COVID-19 from chest X-rays. With little to no direct access to hospital data, the AI community relies heavily on public data comprising numerous data sources. Model performance results have been exceptional when training and testing on open-source data, surpassing the reported capabilities of AI in pneumonia-detection prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. In this study impactful models are trained on a widely used open-source data and tested on an external test set and a hospital dataset, for the task of classifying chest X-rays into one of three classes: COVID-19, non-COVID pneumonia and no-pneumonia. Classification performance of the models investigated is evaluated through ROC curves, confusion matrices and standard classification metrics. Explainability modules are implemented to explore the image features most important to classification. Data analysis and model evalutions show that the popular open-source dataset COVIDx is not representative of the real clinical problem and that results from testing on this are inflated. Dependence on open-source data can leave models vulnerable to bias and confounding variables, requiring careful analysis to develop clinically useful/viable AI tools for COVID-19 detection in chest X-rays.