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Background: The goal of this work was to investigate trends (2001-2019) for cardiovascular events and cardiometabolic risk factor levels in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and matched control subjects., Methods: This study included 679 072 individuals with T2D from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and 2 643  800 matched control subjects. Incident outcomes comprised coronary artery disease, acute myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease, and heart failure (HF). Trends in time to first event for each outcome were analyzed with Cox regression and standardized incidence rates. In the group with T2D, Cox regression was also used to assess risk factor levels beyond target and outcomes, as well as the relative importance of each risk factor to each model., Results: Among individuals with T2D, incidence rates per 10 000 person-years in 2001 and 2019 were as follows: acute myocardial infarction, 73.9 (95% CI, 65.4-86.8) and 41.0 (95% CI, 39.5-42.6); coronary artery disease, 205.1 (95% CI, 186.8-227.5) and 80.2 (95% CI, 78.2-82.3); cerebrovascular disease, 83.9 (95% CI, 73.6-98.5) and 46.2 (95% CI, 44.9-47.6); and HF, 98.3 (95% CI, 89.4-112.0) and 75.9 (95% CI, 74.4-77.5). The incidence for HF plateaued around 2013, a trend that then persisted. In individuals with T2D, glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and lipids were independently associated with outcomes. Body mass index alone potentially explained >30% of HF risk in T2D. For those with T2D with no risk factor beyond target, there was no excess cardiovascular risk compared with control subjects except for HF, with increased hazard with T2D even when no risk factor was above target (hazard ratio, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.35-1.67]). Risk for coronary artery disease and cerebrovascular disease increased in a stepwise fashion for each risk factor not within target. Glycated hemoglobin was most prognostically important for incident atherosclerotic events, as was body mass index for incident of HF., Conclusions: Risk and rates for atherosclerotic complications and HF are generally decreasing among individuals with T2D, although HF incidence has notably plateaued in recent years. Modifiable risk factors within target levels were associated with lower risks for outcomes. This was particularly notable for systolic blood pressure and glycated hemoglobin for atherosclerotic outcomes and body mass index for heart failure., Competing Interests: Disclosures Dr Bhatt discloses the following relationships: advisory boards for Angiowave, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Cardax, CellProthera, Cereno Scientific, Elsevier Practice Update Cardiology, High Enroll, Janssen, Level Ex, McKinsey, Medscape Cardiology, Merck, MyoKardia, NirvaMed, Novo Nordisk, PhaseBio, PLx Pharma, Regado Biosciences, and Stasys; boards of directors for Angiowave (stock options), Boston VA Research Institute, Bristol Myers Squibb (stock), DRS.LINQ (stock options), High Enroll (stock), Society of Cardiovascular Patient Care, and TobeSoft; chair/inaugural chair of the American Heart Association Quality Oversight Committee; consultant for Broadview Ventures and Hims; data monitoring committees for Acesion Pharma, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, Baim Institute for Clinical Research (formerly Harvard Clinical Research Institute, for the PORTICO trial, funded by St. Jude Medical, now Abbott), Boston Scientific (chair, PEITHO trial), Cleveland Clinic (including for the ExCEED trial, funded by Edwards), Contego Medical (chair, PERFORMANCE 2), Duke Clinical Research Institute, Mayo Clinic, Mount Sinai School of Medicine (for the ENVISAGE trial, funded by Daiichi Sankyo; for the ABILITY-DM trial, funded by Concept Medical), Novartis, Population Health Research Institute, and Rutgers University (for the National Institutes of Health–funded MINT Trial); honoraria from the American College of Cardiology (senior associate editor, Clinical Trials and News, ACC.org; chair of the ACC Accreditation Oversight Committee), Arnold and Porter law firm (work related to Sanofi/Bristol-Myers Squibb clopidogrel litigation), Baim Institute for Clinical Research (formerly Harvard Clinical Research Institute; RE-DUAL PCI Clinical Trial Steering Committee funded by Boehringer Ingelheim; AEGIS-II executive committee, funded by CSL Behring), Belvoir Publications (editor in chief of Harvard Heart Letter), Canadian Medical and Surgical Knowledge Translation Research Group (clinical trial steering committees), Cowen and Company, Duke Clinical Research Institute (clinical trial steering committees, including for the PRONOUNCE trial, funded by Ferring Pharmaceuticals), HMP Global (editor in chief of the Journal of Invasive Cardiology), Journal of the American College of Cardiology (guest editor; associate editor), K2P (co-chair for interdisciplinary curriculum), Level Ex, Medtelligence/ReachMD (CME steering committees), MJH Life Sciences, Oakstone CME (course director of Comprehensive Review of Interventional Cardiology), Piper Sandler, Population Health Research Institute (for the COMPASS operations committee, publications committee, steering committee, and US national coleader, funded by Bayer), Slack Publications (chief medical editor of Cardiology Today’s Intervention), Society of Cardiovascular Patient Care (secretary/treasurer), WebMD (CME steering committees), Wiley (steering committee); other: clinical cardiology (deputy editor), NCDR-ACTION Registry steering committee (chair), and VA CART Research and Publications Committee (chair); named on a patent for sotagliflozin assigned to Brigham and Women’s Hospital (assigned to Lexicon; neither Dr Bhatt nor Brigham and Women’s Hospital receives any income from this patent); research funding from Abbott, Acesion Pharma, Afimmune, Aker Biomarine, Amarin, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Beren, Boehringer Ingelheim, Boston Scientific, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Cardax, CellProthera, Cereno Scientific, Chiesi, CinCor, Cleerly, CSL Behring, Eisai, Ethicon, Faraday Pharmaceuticals, Ferring Pharmaceuticals, Forest Laboratories, Fractyl, Garmin, HLS Therapeutics, Idorsia, Ironwood, Ischemix, Janssen, Javelin, Lexicon, Lilly, Medtronic, Merck, Moderna, MyoKardia, NirvaMed, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Owkin, Pfizer, PhaseBio, PLx Pharma, Recardio, Regeneron, Reid Hoffman Foundation, Roche, Sanofi, Stasys, Synaptic, The Medicines Company, Youngene, and 89Bio; royalties from Elsevier (editor of Braunwald’s Heart Disease); site co- investigator for Abbott, Biotronik, Boston Scientific, CSI, Endotronix, St. Jude Medical (now Abbott), Philips, SpectraWAVE, Svelte, and Vascular Solutions; trustee of the American College of Cardiology; and unfunded research from FlowCo and Takeda. Dr McGuire reports receiving executive committee fees and consulting fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, Sanofi US, and AstraZeneca; data monitoring committee fees from CSL Behring; executive committee fees, consulting fees, and advisory board fees from Lilly USA and Novo Nordisk; executive committee fees from Lexicon and Eisai; steering committee fees from Esperion; consulting fees from Metavant, Applied Therapeutics, Bayer, and Afimmune; and advisory board fees from Pfizer, Merck Sharp, and Dohme. Dr Sattar has consulted for Abbott, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, Hanmi, MSD, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, and Sanofi, and received grant support from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novartis, and Roche Diagnostics outside the submitted work. The other authors report no conflicts.

Objective: To investigate trends, optimal levels for cardiometabolic risk factors, and multifactorial risk control in diabetic nephropathy and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with diabetes and matched control subjects., Research Design and Methods: This study included 701,622 patients with diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register and 2,738,137 control subjects. Trends were analyzed with standardized incidence rates. Cox regression was used to assess excess risk, optimal risk factor levels, and risk according to the number of risk factors, in diabetes., Results: ESKD incidence among patients with and without diabetes initially declined until 2007 and increased thereafter, whereas diabetic nephropathy decreased throughout follow-up. In patients with diabetes, baseline values for glycated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure (SBP), triglycerides, and BMI were associated with outcomes. Hazard ratio (HR) for ESKD for patients with type 2 diabetes who had all included risk factors at target was 1.60 (95% CI 1.49-1.71) compared with control subjects and for patients with type 1 diabetes 6.10 (95% CI 4.69-7.93). Risk for outcomes increased in a stepwise fashion for each risk factor not at target. Excess risk for ESKD in type 2 diabetes showed a HR of 2.32 (95% CI 2.30-2.35) and in type 1 diabetes 10.92 (95% CI 10.15-11.75), compared with control., Conclusions: Incidence of diabetic nephropathy has declined substantially, whereas ESKD incidence has increased. Traditional and modifiable risk factors below target levels were associated with lower risks for outcomes, particularly notable for the causal risk factors of SBP and HbA1c, with potential implications for care., (© 2022 by the American Diabetes Association.)