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By applying a sinusoidal function (as a trigonometric model), this study aimed to introduce this function into ostrich weight development research, using ostrich growth data from the literature and comparing it with some routinely used growth models such as monomolecular, Bridges, Janoschek, logistic, Von Bertalanffy, Richards, Schumacher, Morgan, Chanter, and Weibull. During the fitting of nonlinear regression curves, model performance was evaluated and model behavior was examined. Body weight data of the domestic ostriches used in this study were reported in the Blue Mountain Ostrich Nutrition e-bulletin from three different studies (data sets 1 to 3). In all data sets, body weight was measured monthly from one to twelve months of age. The adjusted coefficient of determination, root mean square error, Akaike's information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion were used to evaluate each model's overall goodness-of-fit to different data profiles. Based on the goodness-of-fit criteria, the sinusoidal model was determined to be the most suitable function for fitting the growth curve of ostriches in data sets 1 and 2. However, both monomolecular and logistic models had the worst fit to the growth curve of ostriches in these data sets. For data set 3, the Weibull model provided the best fit of the growth curve of ostriches, but the sinusoidal function had the worst fit. Absolute growth rate (AGR), calculated using the first derivative of the best model with time showed that AGR values ​​increased with age until days 174, 90, and 68 for data sets 1 to 3, respectively, and then decreased. Overall, this study offers implications for advancing research on ostrich production systems and providing insightful information on the application of alternative nonlinear models in modeling ostrich growth., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The author confirms that there are no known conflicts of interest associated with this manuscript which have influenced its outcome., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

The normality assumption postulates that empirical data derives from a normal (Gaussian) population. It is a pillar of inferential statistics that enables the theorization of probability functions and the computation of p-values thereof. The breach of this assumption may not impose a formal mathematical constraint on the computation of inferential outputs (e.g., p-values) but may make them inoperable and possibly lead to unethical waste of laboratory animals. Various methods, including statistical tests and qualitative visual examination, can reveal incompatibility with normality and the choice of a procedure should not be trivialized. The following minireview will provide a brief overview of diagrammatical methods and statistical tests commonly employed to evaluate congruence with normality. Special attention will be given to the potential pitfalls associated with their application. Normality is an unachievable ideal that practically never accurately describes natural variables, and detrimental consequences of non-normality may be safeguarded by using large samples. Therefore, the very concept of preliminary normality testing is also, arguably provocatively, questioned.

A 2-dimensional (2D) egg-shape equation can be used to construct a 3D egg geometry based on the hypothesis that an egg is a solid of revolution, which helps to calculate egg volume and surface area. The parameters in the 2D egg-shape equation are potentially valuable for providing a clue to the ecology and evolution of avian eggs. In this study, the 5-parameter Preston equation (PE), the 4-parameter Troscianko equation (TE), and another 2 egg-shape equations, were compared in describing real 2D egg-shape data of 300 Gallus gallus domesticus eggs and additional 50 eggs that represented the variation in avian egg geometries. Adjusted root-mean-square error was used to quantify each equation's prediction error. Given that the 4 equations are nonlinear, relative curvature measures of nonlinearity were used to assess the extent of nonlinearity in each equation. PE was found to be the best among the 4 equations in terms of adjusted root-mean-square error and minimizing nonlinearity. The empirically determined egg volumes using a graduated cylinder were compared with the predicted egg volumes using the formula for a solid of revolution based on 2D predictions from the 4 egg-shape equations. There were negligible differences in the predicted egg volumes and surface areas among the 4 equations, indicating that these equations are all valid in calculating egg volume and surface area. In addition, we proposed a 5-parameter TE and found that it outperformed the above 4 equations in describing the 2D egg shape of G. gallus, but was less general than PE for other egg shapes. This work provides statistical evidence to show which equation is the best for describing the geometry of avian eggs and nondestructively calculating their volume and surface area, helping to classify poultry eggs into different grades according to the morphological characteristics of the eggs., Competing Interests: DISCLOSURES The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Synthetic Electronic Health Records (EHRs) are becoming increasingly popular as a privacy enhancing technology. However, for longitudinal EHRs specifically, little research has been done into how to properly evaluate synthetically generated samples. In this article, we provide a discussion on existing methods and recommendations when evaluating the quality of synthetic longitudinal EHRs., Methods: We recommend to assess synthetic EHR quality through similarity to real EHRs in low-dimensional projections, accuracy of a classifier discriminating synthetic from real samples, performance of synthetic versus real trained algorithms in clinical tasks, and privacy risk through risk of attribute inference. For each metric we discuss strengths and weaknesses, next to showing how it can be applied on a longitudinal dataset., Results: To support the discussion on evaluation metrics, we apply discussed metrics on a dataset of synthetic EHRs generated from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) repository., Conclusions: The discussion on evaluation metrics provide guidance for researchers on how to use and interpret different metrics when evaluating the quality of synthetic longitudinal EHRs., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Introduction: Cross frequency coupling (CFC) between electrophysiological signals in the brain is a long-studied phenomenon and its abnormalities have been observed in conditions such as Parkinson's disease and epilepsy. More recently, CFC has been observed in stomach-brain electrophysiologic studies and thus becomes an enticing possible target for diseases involving aberrations of the gut-brain axis. However, current methods of detecting coupling, specifically phase-amplitude coupling (PAC), do not attempt to capture the phase and amplitude statistical relationships., Methods: In this paper, we first demonstrate a method of modeling these joint statistics with a flexible parametric approach, where we model the conditional distribution of amplitude given phase using a gamma distributed generalized linear model (GLM) with a Fourier basis of regressors. We perform model selection with minimum description length (MDL) principle, demonstrate a method for assessing goodness-of-fit (GOF), and showcase the efficacy of this approach in multiple electroencephalography (EEG) datasets. Secondly, we showcase how we can utilize the mutual information, which operates on the joint distribution, as a canonical measure of coupling, as it is non-zero and non-negative if and only if the phase and amplitude are not statistically independent. In addition, we build off of previous work by Martinez-Cancino et al., and Voytek et al., and show that the information density, evaluated using our method along the given sample path, is a promising measure of time-resolved PAC., Results: Using synthetically generated gut-brain coupled signals, we demonstrate that our method outperforms the existing gold-standard methods for detectable low-levels of phase-amplitude coupling through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. To validate our method, we test on invasive EEG recordings by generating comodulograms, and compare our method to the gold standard PAC measure, Modulation Index, demonstrating comparable performance in exploratory analysis. Furthermore, to showcase its use in joint gut-brain electrophysiology data, we generate topoplots of simultaneous high-density EEG and electrgastrography recordings and reproduce seminal work by Richter et al. that demonstrated the existence of gut-brain PAC. Using simulated data, we validate our method for different types of time-varying coupling and then demonstrate its performance to track time-varying PAC in sleep spindle EEG and mismatch negativity (MMN) datasets., Conclusions: Our new measure of PAC using Gamma GLMs and mutual information demonstrates a promising new way to compute PAC values using the full joint distribution on amplitude and phase. Our measure outperforms the most common existing measures of PAC, and show promising results in identifying time varying PAC in electrophysiological datasets. In addition, we provide for using our method with multiple comparisons and show that our measure potentially has more statistical power in electrophysiologic recordings using simultaneous gut-brain datasets., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Perley and Coleman.)

Arthritis is the tenderness and swelling of one or more of the joints. Arthritis therapies are directed mainly at reducing symptoms and improving quality of life. In this article, we introduced a novel four parametric model known as generalized exponentiated unit Gompertz (GEUG) for modeling a clinical trial data which represent the relief or relaxing times of arthritic patients receiving a fixed dosage of certain medication. The key feature of such novel model is the addition of new tuning parameters to unit Gompertz (UG) with the intention of increasing versatility of the UG model. We have derived and studied different statistical and reliable attributes, along with moments and associated measures, uncertainty measures, moments generating functions, complete/incomplete moments, quantile function, survival and hazard functions. A comprehensive simulation analysis is implemented to evaluate the effectiveness of estimation of distribution parameters using numerous well-known classical approaches, like maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), least squares estimation (LSE), weighted least squares estimation (WLSE), Anderson Darling estimation (ADE), right tail Anderson darling estimation (RTADE), and Cramer-Von Mises estimation (CVME). Finally, using a relief time's data on arthritis pain show adaptability of suggested model. The results revealed that it might fit better than other relative models.

To evaluate model fit in confirmatory factor analysis, researchers compare goodness-of-fit indices (GOFs) against fixed cutoff values (e.g., CFI > .950) derived from simulation studies. Methodologists have cautioned that cutoffs for GOFs are only valid for settings similar to the simulation scenarios from which cutoffs originated. Despite these warnings, fixed cutoffs for popular GOFs (i.e., χ 2 , χ 2 /df, CFI, RMSEA, SRMR) continue to be widely used in applied research. We (1) argue that the practice of using fixed cutoffs needs to be abandoned and (2) review time-honored and emerging alternatives to fixed cutoffs. We first present the most in-depth simulation study to date on the sensitivity of GOFs to model misspecification (i.e., misspecified factor dimensionality and unmodeled cross-loadings) and their susceptibility to further data and analysis characteristics (i.e., estimator, number of indicators, number and distribution of response options, loading magnitude, sample size, and factor correlation). We included all characteristics identified as influential in previous studies. Our simulation enabled us to replicate well-known influences on GOFs and establish hitherto unknown or underappreciated ones. In particular, the magnitude of the factor correlation turned out to moderate the effects of several characteristics on GOFs. Second, to address these problems, we discuss several strategies for assessing model fit that take the dependency of GOFs on the modeling context into account. We highlight tailored (or "dynamic") cutoffs as a way forward. We provide convenient tables with scenario-specific cutoffs as well as regression formulae to predict cutoffs tailored to the empirical setting of interest., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Randomized response (RR) is a well-known interview technique designed to eliminate evasive response bias that arises from asking sensitive questions. The most frequently asked questions in RR are either whether respondents were "ever" carriers of the sensitive characteristic, or whether they were carriers in a recent period, for instance, "last year". The present paper proposes a design in which both questions are asked, and derives a multinomial model for the joint analysis of these two questions. Compared to the separate analyses with the binomial model, the model makes a useful distinction between last year and former carriers of the sensitive characteristic, it is more efficient in estimating the prevalence of last year carriers, and it has a degree of freedom that allows for a goodness-of-fit test. Furthermore, it is easily extended to a multinomial logistic regression model to investigate the effects of covariates on the prevalence estimates. These benefits are illustrated in two studies on the use of anabolic androgenic steroids in the Netherlands, one using Kuk and one using both the Kuk and forced response. A salient result of our analyses is that the multinomial model provided ample evidence of response biases in the forced response condition., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: According to the strategy-situation fit hypothesis, it is adaptive to match coping strategies to the controllability of stressors. Although early research generally supported this hypothesis, recent findings have been inconsistent. The goals of this study were to test the strategy-situation fit hypothesis, addressing limitations of past research, and compare it to an alternative hypothesis from the temporal model of control (i.e., to focus on what one can control rather than matching coping strategies to control appraisals)., Design and Methods: College students ( n  = 159) completed measures assessing their stressors, coping strategies, stressor controllability, perceived control over present aspects of stressors, and perceived stress. Data were collected via online surveys in Fall 2020., Results: Consistent with the strategy-situation fit hypothesis, using a higher ratio of problem-solving coping for more controllable stressors was associated with less stress. However, using more emotion-focused coping for less controllable stressors was not associated with less stress. In addition, focusing on what one could control in the present was associated with less stress, above and beyond strategy-situation fit., Conclusions: It may be more adaptive to focus on what one can control in the present than to match coping styles to stressor controllability.

Semicontinuous outcomes commonly arise in a wide variety of fields, such as insurance claims, healthcare expenditures, rainfall amounts, and alcohol consumption. Regression models, including Tobit, Tweedie, and two-part models, are widely employed to understand the relationship between semicontinuous outcomes and covariates. Given the potential detrimental consequences of model misspecification, after fitting a regression model, it is of prime importance to check the adequacy of the model. However, due to the point mass at zero, standard diagnostic tools for regression models (eg, deviance and Pearson residuals) are not informative for semicontinuous data. To bridge this gap, we propose a new type of residuals for semicontinuous outcomes that is applicable to general regression models. Under the correctly specified model, the proposed residuals converge to being uniformly distributed, and when the model is misspecified, they significantly depart from this pattern. In addition to in-sample validation, the proposed methodology can also be employed to evaluate predictive distributions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed tool using health expenditure data from the US Medical Expenditure Panel Survey., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The International Biometric Society.)

We propose a simple approach to assess whether a nonlinear parametric model is appropriate to depict the dose-response relationships and whether two parametric models can be applied to fit a dataset via nonparametric regression. The proposed approach can compensate for the ANOVA, which is sometimes conservative, and is very easy to implement. We illustrate the performance by analyzing experimental examples and a small simulation study.

Neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and acid detergent fiber (ADF) composition have been shown to predict in vitro true digestibility (IVTD), in vitro NDF digestibility (IVNDFD), and in vitro ADF digestibility (IVADFD) in ruminants. This study's objective was to estimate in vitro digestibility measures within the Daisy II incubator using equine fecal inoculum from feedstuff NDF and ADF composition. Analyzed feedstuffs included alfalfa hay ( Medicago sativa ), Coastal Bermudagrass hay, soybean meal, rice bran, hempseed meal, and Bluebonnet® Equilene® Pellets. Data were analyzed using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) within the R Statistical Program©. The highest ranked model for IVTD was the interaction of NDF and ADF: 10003.32 - 0.2904 × NDF - 0.4220 × ADF - 0.0010 × NDF × ADF (Adjusted R 2 = 0.959 and AICc = 474.97). Sample IVNDFD was moderately predicted by ADF: 855.15 - 1.5183 × ADF (Adjusted R 2 = 0.749 and AICc = 560.82). Feedstuff ADF produced the highest ranked model for IVNDFD: 881.91 - 1.5952 × ADF (Adj. R 2 = 0.835 and AICc = 541.33). These results indicate the effectiveness of using feedstuff NDF and ADF composition to predict IVTD, IVNDFD, and IVADFD within equine fecal inoculum. The findings of this study provide better understanding of feedstuff digestibility using equine fecal inoculum, but more research is warranted for validation of the models and the potential impact in vivo.

In clinical and epidemiological research doubly truncated data often appear. This is the case, for instance, when the data registry is formed by interval sampling. Double truncation generally induces a sampling bias on the target variable, so proper corrections of ordinary estimation and inference procedures must be used. Unfortunately, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of a doubly truncated distribution has several drawbacks, like potential nonexistence and nonuniqueness issues, or large estimation variance. Interestingly, no correction for double truncation is needed when the sampling bias is ignorable, which may occur with interval sampling and other sampling designs. In such a case the ordinary empirical distribution function is a consistent and fully efficient estimator that generally brings remarkable variance improvements compared to the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator. Thus, identification of such situations is critical for the simple and efficient estimation of the target distribution. In this article, we introduce for the first time formal testing procedures for the null hypothesis of ignorable sampling bias with doubly truncated data. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistic are investigated. A bootstrap algorithm to approximate the null distribution of the test in practice is introduced. The finite sample performance of the method is studied in simulated scenarios. Finally, applications to data on onset for childhood cancer and Parkinson's disease are given. Variance improvements in estimation are discussed and illustrated., (© 2023 The Author. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The effectiveness of annual peak discharges under the anthropogenic impact and climate change has significance for disaster management and planning. Therefore, an attempt has been made to study the trend of annual maximum series (AMS) discharges and flood frequency in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). The AMS data of five stations in the LMB were procured from the Mekong River Commission for analyses of trends of the AMS and flood frequency. The Mann-Kendall test showed a significant decrease in the magnitude of annual peak floods for all the discharge gauging sites in the LMB. Likewise, the analysis of the annual discharge departure from the mean reveals noteworthy variations and departure (positive and negative) in the annual peak discharges. The goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests showed that Log-Pearson Type-III (LP-III) is the best distribution for AMS of the Mekong River than Gumbel Extreme Value Type-I (GEVI). Therefore, predicted discharges for different return periods and predicted recurrence intervals for average annual discharges ( Q m ), large floods ( Q lf ), and maximum annual peak discharge during the recording period ( Q max ) by LP-III are trustworthy. The flood frequency curve specified that all the observed discharges were fairly on the best-fitted line and falls between upper and lower confidence limits. Inclusively, the results of the trend in annual peak discharges and flood frequency are consistent and can be used for water management, controlling flood disasters, and flood planning in the LMB., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Exponential-family Random Graph Models (ERGMs) have long been at the forefront of the analysis of relational data. The exponential-family form allows complex network dependencies to be represented. Models in this class are interpretable, flexible and have a strong theoretical foundation. The availability of powerful user-friendly open-source software allows broad accessibility and use. However, ERGMs sometimes suffer from a serious condition known as near-degeneracy, in which the model exhibits unrealistic probabilistic behavior or a severe lack-of-fit to real network data. Recently, Fellows and Handcock (2017) proposed a new model class, the Tapered ERGM, which circumvents the issue of near-degeneracy while maintaining the desirable features of ERGMs. However, the question of how to determine the proper amount of tapering needed for any model was heretofore left unanswered. This paper develops a new methodology for how to determine the necessary level of tapering and as such provides a new approach to inference for the Tapered ERGM class. Noting that a Tapered ERGM can always be made non-degenerate, we offer data-driven approaches for determining the amount of tapering necessary. The mean-value parameter estimates are unaffected by tapering, and we show that the natural parameter estimates are numerically weakly varying by the level of tapering. We then apply the Tapered ERGM to two published networks to demonstrate its effectiveness in cases where typical ERGMs fail and present the case for Tapered ERGMs replacing ERGMs entirely., Competing Interests: The authors report there are no competing interests to declare.

Habitat suitability modelling was used to test the relationship between coastal discharges and seagrass occurrence based on data from Adelaide (South Australia). Seven variables (benthic light including epiphyte shading, temperature, salinity, substrate, wave exposure, currents and tidal exposure) were simulated using a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model and interrogated against literature-derived thresholds for nine local seagrass species. Light availability was the most critical driver across the study area but wave exposure played a key role in shallow nearshore areas. Model validation against seagrass mapping data showed 86 % goodness-of-fit. Comparison against later mapping data suggested that modelling could predict ~745 ha of seagrass recovery in areas previously classified as 'false positives'. These results suggest that habitat suitability modelling is reliable to test scenarios and predict seagrass response to reduction of land-based loads, providing a useful tool to guide (investment) decisions to prevent loss and promote recovery of seagrasses., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Paul Erftemeijer reports financial support was provided by South Australian Water Corporation. Jos van Gils reports financial support was provided by South Australian Water Corporation., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Bifactor latent models have gained popularity and are widely used to model construct multidimensionality. When adopting a confirmatory approach, a common practice is to assume that all cross-loadings take zero values. This article presents the results of a simulation study exploring the impact of ignoring non-zero cross-loadings on the performance of confirmatory bifactor analysis. The present work contributes to previous research by including study conditions that had not been examined before. For instance, a wider range of values of the factor loadings both for the group factors and the cross-loadings is considered. Parameter recovery is analyzed, but the focus of the study is on assessing the sensitivity of goodness-of-fit indices to detect the model misspecification that involves ignoring non-zero cross-loadings. Several commonly used SEM fit indices are examined: both biased estimators of the fit index (CFI, GFI, and SRMR) and unbiased estimators (RMSEA and SRMR). Results indicated that parameter recovery worsens when ignoring moderate and large cross-loading values and using small sample sizes, and that commonly used SEM fit indices are not useful to detect such model misspecifications. We recommend the use of the unbiased SRMR index with a cutoff value adjusted by the communality level ( R 2 ), as it is the only fit index sensitive to the model misspecification due to ignoring non-zero cross-loadings in the bifactor model. The results of the present study provide insights into modeling cross-loadings in confirmatory bifactor models but also practical recommendations to researchers., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Ximénez, Revuelta and Castañeda.)

Recently, a universal equation by Narushin, Romanov, and Griffin (hereafter, the NRGE) was proposed to describe the shape of avian eggs. While NRGE can simulate the shape of spherical, ellipsoidal, ovoidal, and pyriform eggs, its predictions were not tested against actual data. Here, we tested the validity of the NRGE by fitting actual data of egg shapes and compared this with the predictions of our simpler model for egg shape (hereafter, the SGE). The eggs of nine bird species were sampled for this purpose. NRGE was found to fit the empirical data of egg shape well, but it did not define the egg length axis (i.e., the rotational symmetric axis), which significantly affected the prediction accuracy. The egg length axis under the NRGE is defined as the maximum distance between two points on the scanned perimeter of the egg's shape. In contrast, the SGE fitted the empirical data better, and had a smaller root-mean-square error than the NRGE for each of the nine eggs. Based on its mathematical simplicity and goodness-of-fit, the SGE appears to be a reliable and useful model for describing egg shape., (© 2022 New York Academy of Sciences.)

Recurrent event data analysis plays an important role in many fields, e.g., medicine, social science, and economics. While the existing approaches under the proportional rates or mean model yield poor performance when the underlying model is misspecified, we propose a novel model-free approach by introducing a lower bound on the concordance index (C-Index). We develop an estimation method through deriving a continuous lower bound on the C-Index based on the log-sigmoid function and also provide a variable selection procedure in high dimensional settings. Under both low and high dimensional settings, simulation results show that the proposed methods outperform the gamma frailty recurrent event model when the proportional mean assumption is violated. Moreover, an application to the hospital readmission dataset shows results in line with previous studies and a higher C-Index value further assures model decency., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exists as a pandemic. Mortality during hospitalization is multifactorial, and there is urgent need for a risk stratification model to predict in-hospital death among COVID-19 patients. Here we aimed to construct a risk score system for early identification of COVID-19 patients at high probability of dying during in-hospital treatment., Methods: In this retrospective analysis, a total of 821 confirmed COVID-19 patients from 3 centers were assigned to developmental ( n  = 411, between January 14, 2020 and February 11, 2020) and validation ( n  = 410, between February 14, 2020 and March 13, 2020) groups. Based on demographic, symptomatic, and laboratory variables, a new Coronavirus estimation global (CORE-G) score for prediction of in-hospital death was established from the developmental group, and its performance was then evaluated in the validation group., Results: The CORE-G score consisted of 18 variables (5 demographics, 2 symptoms, and 11 laboratory measurements) with a sum of 69.5 points. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that the model performed well in the developmental group ( H  = 3.210, P   =  0.880), and it was well validated in the validation group ( H  = 6.948, P   =  0.542). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.955 in the developmental group (sensitivity, 94.1%; specificity, 83.4%) and 0.937 in the validation group (sensitivity, 87.2%; specificity, 84.2%). The mortality rate was not significantly different between the developmental ( n  = 85,20.7%) and validation ( n  = 94, 22.9%, P   =  0.608) groups., Conclusions: The CORE-G score provides an estimate of the risk of in-hospital death. This is the first step toward the clinical use of the CORE-G score for predicting outcome in COVID-19 patients., Competing Interests: None. Editor note: Shaoliang Chen is an associate editor of Cardiology Discovery. The article was subject to the journal's standard procedures, with peer review handled independently of this editor and his research groups., (Copyright © 2022 The Chinese Medical Association, published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Exponential-family Random Graph models (ERGM) are widely used in social network analysis when modelling data on the relations between actors. ERGMs are typically interpreted as a snapshot of a network at a given point in time or in a final state. The recently proposed Latent Order Logistic model (LOLOG) directly allows for a latent network formation process. We assess the real-world performance of these models when applied to typical networks modelled by researchers. Specifically, we model data from an ensemble of articles in the journal Social Networks with published ERGM fits, and compare the ERGM fit to a comparable LOLOG fit. We demonstrate that the LOLOG models are, in general, in qualitative agreement with the ERGM models, and provide at least as good a model fit. In addition they are typically faster and easier to fit to data, without the tendency for degeneracy that plagues ERGMs. Our results support the general use of LOLOG models in circumstances where ERGMs are considered.

Introduction: Modeling on infectious diseases is significant to facilitate public health policymaking. There are two main mathematical methods that can be used for the simulation of the epidemic and prediction of optimal early warning timing: the logistic differential equation (LDE) model and the more complex generalized logistic differential equation (GLDE) model. This study aimed to compare and analyze these two models., Methods: We collected data on (coronavirus disease 2019) COVID-19 and four other infectious diseases and classified the data into four categories: different transmission routes, different epidemic intensities, different time scales, and different regions, using R to compare and analyze the goodness-of-fit of LDE and GLDE models.2 to compare and analyze the goodness-of-fit of LDE and GLDE models., Results: Both models fitted the epidemic curves well, and all results were statistically significant. The R 2 test value of COVID-19 was 0.924 ( p < 0.001) fitted by the GLDE model and 0.916 ( p < 0.001) fitted by the LDE model. The R 2 test value varied between 0.793 and 0.966 fitted by the GLDE model and varied between 0.594 and 0.922 fitted by the LDE model for diseases with different transmission routes. The R 2 test values varied between 0.853 and 0.939 fitted by the GLDE model and varied from 0.687 to 0.769 fitted by the LDE model for diseases with different prevalence intensities. The R 2 test value varied between 0.706 and 0.917 fitted by the GLDE model and varied between 0.410 and 0.898 fitted by the LDE model for diseases with different time scales. The GLDE model also performed better with nation-level data with the R 2 test values between 0.897 and 0.970 vs. 0.731 and 0.953 that fitted by the LDE model. Both models could characterize the patterns of the epidemics well and calculate the acceleration weeks., Conclusion: The GLDE model provides more accurate goodness-of-fit to the data than the LDE model. The GLDE model is able to handle asymmetric data by introducing shape parameters that allow it to fit data with various distributions. The LDE model provides an earlier epidemic acceleration week than the GLDE model. We conclude that the GLDE model is more advantageous in asymmetric infectious disease data simulation., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Li, Lin, Rui, Bai, Deng, Chen, Zhu, Luo, Yu, Liu, Zhang, Su, Zhao, Zhang, Chiang, Liu, Luo and Chen.)

Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) analysis is now used routinely to inform wildlife management and conservation decisions. It is therefore imperative that we understand the implications of and can diagnose common SCR model misspecifications, as flawed inferences could propagate to policy and interventions. The detection function of an SCR model describes how an individual's detections are distributed in space. Despite the detection function's central role in SCR, little is known about the robustness of SCR-derived abundance estimates and home range size estimates to misspecifications. Here, we set out to (a) determine whether abundance estimates are robust to a wider range of misspecifications of the detection function than previously explored, (b) quantify the sensitivity of home range size estimates to the choice of detection function, and (c) evaluate commonly used Bayesian p -values for detecting misspecifications thereof. We simulated SCR data using different circular detection functions to emulate a wide range of space use patterns. We then fit Bayesian SCR models with three detection functions (half-normal, exponential, and half-normal plateau) to each simulated data set. While abundance estimates were very robust, estimates of home range size were sensitive to misspecifications of the detection function. When misspecified, SCR models with the half-normal plateau and exponential detection functions produced the most and least reliable home range size, respectively. Misspecifications with the strongest impact on parameter estimates were easily detected by Bayesian p -values. Practitioners using SCR exclusively for density estimation are unlikely to be impacted by misspecifications of the detection function. However, the choice of detection function can have substantial consequences for the reliability of inferences about space use. Although Bayesian p -values can aid the diagnosis of detection function misspecification under certain conditions, we urge the development of additional custom goodness-of-fit diagnostics for Bayesian SCR models to identify a wider range of model misspecifications., Competing Interests: It is hereby declared that the authors do not have any conflict of interest., (© 2022 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease that caused a large number of deaths all over the world since its outbreak. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak a global pandemic. The understanding of the random process related to the behavior infection of COVID-19 is an important health and economic problem. In the proposed study, we analyze the frequency of daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 using different two-parameter lifetime probability distributions. We consider the data from the period of March 11, 2020, to July 25, 2020, of Pakistan. We consider nine lifetime probability distributions for the analysis purpose and the selection of best fit was carried out using log-likelihood, AIC, BIC, RMSE, and R 2 goodness-of-fit measures. Results indicate that Weibull distribution provides generally the best-fit probability distribution., Competing Interests: Conflict of interestThe authors declare that they have no conflict of interest., (© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2021.)

Pearson's chi-squared test is widely used to test the goodness of fit between categorical data and a given discrete distribution function. When the number of sets of the categorical data, say k , is a fixed integer, Pearson's chi-squared test statistic converges in distribution to a chi-squared distribution with k -1 degrees of freedom when the sample size n goes to infinity. In real applications, the number k often changes with n and may be even much larger than n . By using the martingale techniques, we prove that Pearson's chi-squared test statistic converges to the normal under quite general conditions. We also propose a new test statistic which is more powerful than chi-squared test statistic based on our simulation study. A real application to lottery data is provided to illustrate our methodology., Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors., (© 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.)

Three types of uncertainties exist in the estimation of the minimum fracture strength of a full-scale component or structure size. The first, to be called the "model selection uncertainty," is in selecting a statistical distribution that best fits the laboratory test data. The second, to be called the "laboratory-scale strength uncertainty," is in estimating model parameters of a specific distribution from which the minimum failure strength of a material at a certain confidence level is estimated using the laboratory test data. To extrapolate the laboratory-scale strength prediction to that of a full-scale component, a third uncertainty exists that can be called the "full-scale strength uncertainty." In this paper, we develop a three-step approach to estimating the minimum strength of a full-scale component using two metrics: One metric is based on six goodness-of-fit and parameter-estimation-method criteria, and the second metric is based on the uncertainty quantification of the so-called A-basis design allowable (99 % coverage at 95 % level of confidence) of the full-scale component. The three steps of our approach are: (1) Find the "best" model for the sample data from a list of five candidates, namely, normal, two-parameter Weibull, three-parameter Weibull, two-parameter lognormal, and three-parameter lognormal. (2) For each model, estimate (2a) the parameters of that model with uncertainty using the sample data, and (2b) the minimum strength at the laboratory scale at 95 % level of confidence. (3) Introduce the concept of "coverage" and estimate the fullscale allowable minimum strength of the component at 95 % level of confidence for two types of coverages commonly used in the aerospace industry, namely, 99 % (A-basis for critical parts) and 90 % (B-basis for less critical parts). This uncertainty-based approach is novel in all three steps: In step-1 we use a composite goodness-of-fit metric to rank and select the "best" distribution, in step-2 we introduce uncertainty quantification in estimating the parameters of each distribution, and in step-3 we introduce the concept of an uncertainty metric based on the estimates of the upper and lower tolerance limits of the so-called A-basis design allowable minimum strength. To illustrate the applicability of this uncertainty-based approach to a diverse group of data, we present results of our analysis for six sets of laboratory failure strength data from four engineering materials. A discussion of the significance and limitations of this approach and some concluding remarks are included.

Simple linear regression using ordinary least-squares is the most common function applied in laboratories for analytical calibrations. The determination and/or the correlation coefficients are usually the parameters applied for assessing the goodness-of-fit of a simple linear calibration. However, these parameters are unable to detect the highly biased results at low calibration levels that are obtained with ordinary least-squares. In this study, the use of other parameters based on the relative standard errors of the calculated contents is evaluated. It has been found that these alternative parameters can detect the biased results obtained at low calibration levels with ordinary least-squares, being the relative standard error the one that seems to provide the most adequate results. Ordinary least-squares should only be applied if the lower limit of quantification is set to at least five times above the conventional limit of quantification. For trace analysis, where the lowest possible limit of quantification is required, weighted least-squares should be applied to obtain accurate estimates, especially at low concentrations. One of the greatest advantages of the relative standard error is that this parameter can be determined for all types of regression functions and is not limited to calibrations with linear relationships between the variables., (© 2021 The Authors. Journal of Separation Science published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.)

Objective: There is a tendency for reducing TR in MRI experiments with multi-band imaging. We empirically investigate its benefit for the group-level statistical outcome in task-evoked fMRI., Methods: Three visual fMRI data sets were collected from 17 healthy adult participants. Multi-band acquisition helped vary the TR (2000/1000/410 ms, respectively). Because these data sets capture different temporal aspects of the haemodynamic response (HRF), we tested several HRF models. We computed a composite descriptive statistic, H, from β's of each first-level model fit and carried it to the group-level analysis. The number of activated voxels and the t value of the group-level analysis as well as a goodness-of-fit measure were used as surrogate markers of data quality for comparison., Results: Increasing the temporal sampling rate did not provide a universal improvement in the group-level statistical outcome. Rather, both the voxel-wise and ROI-averaged group-level results varied widely with anatomical location, choice of HRF and the setting of the TR. Correspondingly, the goodness-of-fit of HRFs became worse with increasing the sampling frequency., Conclusion: Rather than universally increasing the temporal sampling rate in cognitive fMRI experiments, these results advocate the performance of a pilot study for the specific ROIs of interest to identify the appropriate temporal sampling rate for the acquisition and the correspondingly suitable HRF for the analysis of the data., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

By standard transformation of a random variable, we obtained a partially bounded one-parameter version of the bounded three-parameter power function distribution by Saran and Pandey (2004) which we called the Transformed Power Function (TPF) distribution and based on an alpha-power transformation method due to Mahdavi and Kundu (2017) we generalized the TPF distribution as the α -Power Transformed Transformed Power Function ( α PTTPF) distribution. Some of the properties of the α PTTPF distribution are given, and we approached the parameter estimation by three methods, namely: maximum likelihood, ordinary least-squares, and weighted least-squares, but after comparing the results from a simulation study, we settled for the maximum likelihood. The new distribution is suitable for modeling data with either decreasing or upside-down bathtub hazard rates. Three real data-sets are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the new model., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (© 2021 The Author(s).)

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate mechanisms through which a randomized intervention causally affects an outcome variable. Mediation analysis is often carried out in a pretest-posttest control group design because it is a common choice for evaluating experimental manipulations in the behavioral and social sciences. There are four different two-wave (i.e., pretest-posttest) mediation models that can be estimated using either linear regression or a Latent Change Score (LCS) specification in Structural Equation Modeling: Analysis of Covariance, difference and residualized change scores, and a cross-sectional model. Linear regression modeling and the LCS specification of the two-wave mediation models provide identical mediated effect estimates but the two modeling approaches differ in their assumptions of model fit. Linear regression modeling assumes each of the four two-wave mediation models fit the data perfectly whereas the LCS specification allows researchers to evaluate the model constraints implied by the difference score, residualized change score, and cross-sectional models via model fit indices. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to provide a conceptual and statistical comparison of two-wave mediation models. Models were compared on the assumptions they make about time-lags and cross-lagged effects as well as statistically using both standard measures of model fit (χ 2 , RMSEA, and CFI) and newly proposed T -size measures of model fit for the two-wave mediation models. Overall, the LCS specification makes clear the assumptions that are often implicitly made when fitting two-wave mediation models with regression. In a Monte Carlo simulation, the standard model fit indices and newly proposed T -size measures of model fit generally correctly identified the best fitting two-wave mediation model., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Valente, Georgeson and Gonzalez.)

We propose a test for assessing nonlinear dose-response models based on a Crámer-von Mises statistic. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the test and demonstrate that the test can detect the local alternative converging to the null at the parametric rate 1 / n . We provide a bootstrap resampling technique to calculate the critical values. It is observed that the test has good power performance in small sample sizes. We apply the proposed method to analyze 250 datasets from a pharmacologic study and conduct two small simulation experiments to explore the numerical performance of the proposed test and compare one commonly used test in practice.

In disease modeling, a key statistical problem is the estimation of lower and upper tail probabilities of health events from given data sets of small size and limited range. Assuming such constraints, we describe a computational framework for the systematic fusion of observations from multiple sources to compute tail probabilities that could not be obtained otherwise due to a lack of lower or upper tail data. The estimation of multivariate lower and upper tail probabilities from a given small reference data set that lacks complete information about such tail data is addressed in terms of pertussis case count data. Fusion of data from multiple sources in conjunction with the density ratio model is used to give probability estimates that are non-obtainable from the empirical distribution. Based on a density ratio model with variable tilts, we first present a univariate fit and, subsequently, improve it with a multivariate extension. In the multivariate analysis, we selected the best model in terms of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Regional prediction, in Washington state, of the number of pertussis cases is approached by providing joint probabilities using fused data from several relatively small samples following the selected density ratio model. The model is validated by a graphical goodness-of-fit plot comparing the estimated reference distribution obtained from the fused data with that of the empirical distribution obtained from the reference sample only.

The case-cohort design is commonly used in epidemiological studies due to its cost-effectiveness. The additive hazards model is widely used in survival analysis when the hazards difference is constant. In this article, we propose a class of goodness-of-fit test statistics for the assumption of the additive hazards model with case-cohort data through a class of asymptotically mean-zero multiparameter stochastic processes. We also establish the asymptotic theory of the proposed test statistics and a resampling scheme is adopted to approximate its asymptotic distribution. The performance of the proposed test statistics is evaluated through simulation studies and a real dataset is analyzed to illustrate the proposed method., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The dependence of statistical validation parameters was investigated on the size of the sample taken in fit of multivariate linear curves. We observed that R and related internal parameters were misleading as they overestimated the goodness-of-fit of models at small sample size. Cross-validation metrics showed correct trends. It was possible to scale the leave-one-out and the leave-many-out results close to identical by correcting the degrees of freedom of the models. 2 and related internal parameters were misleading as they overestimated the goodness-of-fit of models at small sample size. Cross-validation metrics showed correct trends. It was possible to scale the leave-one-out and the leave-many-out results close to identical by correcting the degrees of freedom of the models. y -randomized validation parameters were calculated and the methods provided close to identical results. We suggest to use the simplest methods in both cases. The external parameters followed correct trends with respect to the sample size, but their sensitivity differed. We plotted the Roy-Ojha metrics in 2D and we coloured them with respect to other external parameters to provide an easy classification of models. The rank correlations were calculated between the performance parameters. Up to a sample size, goodness-of-fit and robustness were distinguishable, but above a certain sample size, the parameters were redundant. The external-internal pairs were weakly correlated. Our data show that all the three aspects of validation are necessary at small sample sizes, but the internal check of robustness is not informative above a given sample size.x -randomized validation parameters were calculated and the methods provided close to identical results. We suggest to use the simplest methods in both cases. The external parameters followed correct trends with respect to the sample size, but their sensitivity differed. We plotted the Roy-Ojha metrics in 2D and we coloured them with respect to other external parameters to provide an easy classification of models. The rank correlations were calculated between the performance parameters. Up to a sample size, goodness-of-fit and robustness were distinguishable, but above a certain sample size, the parameters were redundant. The external-internal pairs were weakly correlated. Our data show that all the three aspects of validation are necessary at small sample sizes, but the internal check of robustness is not informative above a given sample size.

Background: Population-based cancer registries are required to calculate cancer incidence in a geographical area, and several methods have been developed to obtain estimations of cancer incidence in areas not covered by a cancer registry. However, an extended analysis of those methods in order to confirm their validity is still needed., Methods: We assessed the validity of one of the most frequently used methods to estimate cancer incidence, on the basis of cancer mortality data and the incidence-to-mortality ratio (IMR), the IMR method. Using the previous 15-year cancer mortality time series, we derived the expected yearly number of cancer cases in the period 2004-2013 for six cancer sites for each sex. Generalized linear mixed models, including a polynomial function for the year of death and smoothing splines for age, were adjusted. Models were fitted under a Bayesian framework based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The IMR method was applied to five scenarios reflecting different assumptions regarding the behavior of the IMR. We compared incident cases estimated with the IMR method to observed cases diagnosed in 2004-2013 in Granada. A goodness-of-fit (GOF) indicator was formulated to determine the best estimation scenario., Results: A total of 39,848 cancer incidence cases and 43,884 deaths due to cancer were included. The relative differences between the observed and predicted numbers of cancer cases were less than 10% for most cancer sites. The constant assumption for the IMR trend provided the best GOF for colon, rectal, lung, bladder, and stomach cancers in men and colon, rectum, breast, and corpus uteri in women. The linear assumption was better for lung and ovarian cancers in women and prostate cancer in men. In the best scenario, the mean absolute percentage error was 6% in men and 4% in women for overall cancer. Female breast cancer and prostate cancer obtained the worst GOF results in all scenarios., Conclusion: A comparison with a historical time series of real data in a population-based cancer registry indicated that the IMR method is a valid tool for the estimation of cancer incidence. The goodness-of-fit indicator proposed can help select the best assumption for the IMR based on a statistical argument.

Residuals in normal regression are used to assess a model's goodness-of-fit (GOF) and discover directions for improving the model. However, there is a lack of residuals with a characterized reference distribution for censored regression. In this article, we propose to diagnose censored regression with normalized randomized survival probabilities (RSP). The key idea of RSP is to replace the survival probability (SP) of a censored failure time with a uniform random number between 0 and the SP of the censored time. We prove that RSPs always have the uniform distribution on (0, 1) under the true model with the true generating parameters. Therefore, we can transform RSPs into normally distributed residuals with the normal quantile function. We call such residuals by normalized RSP (NRSP residuals). We conduct simulation studies to investigate the sizes and powers of statistical tests based on NRSP residuals in detecting the incorrect choice of distribution family and nonlinear effect in covariates. Our simulation studies show that, although the GOF tests with NRSP residuals are not as powerful as a traditional GOF test method, a nonlinear test based on NRSP residuals has significantly higher power in detecting nonlinearity. We also compared these model diagnostics methods with a breast-cancer recurrent-free time dataset. The results show that the NRSP residual diagnostics successfully captures a subtle nonlinear relationship in the dataset, which is not detected by the graphical diagnostics with CS residuals and existing GOF tests., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Classical continuous goodness-of-fit (GOF) testing is employed for examining whether the data come from an assumed parametric model. In many cases, GOF tests assume a uniform null distribution and examine extreme values of the order statistics of the samples. Many of these statistics can be expressed by a function of the order statistics and the p -values amount to a joint probability statement based on the uniform order statistics. In this paper, we utilize Steck's recursion method and propose two high precision computing algorithms to compute the p -values for these GOF statistics. The numerical difficulties in implementing Steck's method are discussed and compared with solutions provided in high precision libraries., Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s)., (© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.)

For the assessment of model fit in linear structural equation modeling (SEM), several fit measures have been developed that use an unconstrained mean and covariance structure, but cannot be readily applied to SEM with quadratic and interaction effects. In this article, we propose the novel quasi-likelihood ratio test (Q-LRT) to evaluate global fit of nonlinear SEM models. The Q-LRT is based on a simplification of the quasi-maximum likelihood method for the estimation of model parameters. An empirical application of the Q-LRT is demonstrated for data in a study about aging in men. Results from a Monte Carlo study show that the Q-LRT performs reliably when sample size is sufficiently large. Also, simulations suggest robustness of Q-LRT for moderately skewed latent exogenous variables.

There have been numerous tests proposed to determine whether or not the exponential model is suitable for a given data set. In this article, we propose a new test statistic based on spacings to test whether the general progressive Type-II censored samples are from exponential distribution. The null distribution of the test statistic is discussed and it could be approximated by the standard normal distribution. Meanwhile, we propose an approximate method for calculating the expectation and variance of samples under null hypothesis and corresponding power function is also given. Then, a simulation study is conducted. We calculate the approximation of the power based on normality and compare the results with those obtained by Monte Carlo simulation under different alternatives with distinct types of hazard function. Results of simulation study disclose that the power properties of this statistic by using Monte Carlo simulation are better for the alternatives with monotone increasing hazard function, and otherwise, normal approximation simulation results are relatively better. Finally, two illustrative examples are presented., Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s)., (© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.)

This study introduces a coefficient of discrimination for use with nominal and ordinal regression models. Computation of the coefficient is demonstrated with data from the Pew Research Center's 25th Anniversary of the Web Omnibus Survey pertaining to cell/home phone ownership, where the coefficient of discrimination indicates that respondent age and gender increased the probability of a correct versus incorrect classification by 13.9%. Additionally, the coefficient is compared to existing coefficients., Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s)., (© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.)

Background: Two-dimensional personalized medicine (2-PM) models are tools for measuring individual benefits of medical treatments for chronic diseases which have potential applications in personalized medicine. These models assume normality for the distribution of random effects. It is necessary to examine the appropriateness of this assumption. Here, we propose a graphical approach to assessing the goodness-of-fit of 2-PM models with continuous responses., Methods: We propose benefit quantile-quantile (BQQ) plots which compare the empirical quantiles of individual benefits from a patient sample predicted through an empirical Bayes (EB) approach versus the quantiles of the theoretical distribution of individual benefits derived from the assumption of normality for the random effects. We examine the performance of the approach by conducting a simulation study that compared 2-PM models with non-normal distributions for the random effects versus models with comparable normal distributions. Cramer-von Mises discrepancies were used to quantify the performance of the approach. The approach was illustrated with data from a clinical trial of imipramine for patients with depression., Results: Simulations showed that BQQ plots were able to capture deviations from the normality assumption for the random effects and did not show any asymmetric deviations from the y = x line when the random effects were normally distributed. For the depression data, the points of the BQQ plot were scattered around closely to the y = x line, without presenting any asymmetric deviations. This implied the adequacy of the normality assumption for the random effects and the goodness-of-fit of the 2-PM model for the imipramine data., Conclusion: BQQ plots are sensitive to violations of the normality assumption for the random effects, suggesting that the approach is a useful tool for examining the goodness-of-fit of random-effects linear models when the goal is to measure individual treatment benefits.

In this paper, we consider two well-known parametric long-term survival models, namely, the Bernoulli cure rate model and the promotion time (or Poisson) cure rate model. Assuming the long-term survival probability to depend on a set of risk factors, the main contribution is in the development of the stochastic expectation maximization (SEM) algorithm to determine the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. We carry out a detailed simulation study to demonstrate the performance of the proposed SEM algorithm. For this purpose, we assume the lifetimes due to each competing cause to follow a two-parameter generalized exponential distribution. We also compare the results obtained from the SEM algorithm with those obtained from the well-known expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Furthermore, we investigate a simplified estimation procedure for both SEM and EM algorithms that allow the objective function to be maximized to split into simpler functions with lower dimensions with respect to model parameters. Moreover, we present examples where the EM algorithm fails to converge but the SEM algorithm still works. For illustrative purposes, we analyze a breast cancer survival data. Finally, we use a graphical method to assess the goodness-of-fit of the model with generalized exponential lifetimes., Competing Interests: No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors., (© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.)

Clear aligners provide a recent technique to induce orthodontic tooth movement. In this paper, a new one-parameter model, called, Rayleigh-Half Normal distribution (RHN) is proposed for modeling tooth movement data. Various statistical and reliability properties including moments and its associated measures, mean residual life, survival and hazard functions are derived and studied. Moreover, the model parameter is estimated via the method of moments and maximum likelihood. A simulation study was performed to examine the bias and mean square error of the estimated parameter. Finally, the flexibility of the proposed model is illustrated by utilizing a real dental data. The results showed that it could give a better fit than other well-known models.

Limited-information fit measures appear to be promising in assessing the goodness-of-fit of dichotomous response cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs), but their performance has not been examined for polytomous response CDMs. This study investigates the performance of the M ord statistic and standardized root mean square residual (SRMSR) for an ordinal response CDM-the sequential generalized deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate model. Simulation studies showed that the M ord statistic had well-calibrated Type I error rates, but the correct detection rates were influenced by various factors such as item quality, sample size, and the number of response categories. In addition, the SRMSR was also influenced by many factors and the common practice of comparing the SRMSR against a prespecified cut-off (e.g., .05) may not be appropriate. A set of real data was analyzed as well to illustrate the use of M ord statistic and SRMSR in practice., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting Interests: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article., (© The Author(s) 2019.)

Shallow landslides damage buildings and other infrastructure, disrupt agriculture practices, and can cause social upheaval and loss of life. As a result, many scientists study the phenomenon, and some of them have focused on producing landslide susceptibility maps that can be used by land-use managers to reduce injury and damage. This paper contributes to this effort by comparing the power and effectiveness of five machine learning, benchmark algorithms-Logistic Model Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes Tree, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine-in creating a reliable shallow landslide susceptibility map for Bijar City in Kurdistan province, Iran. Twenty conditioning factors were applied to 111 shallow landslides and tested using the One-R attribute evaluation (ORAE) technique for modeling and validation processes. The performance of the models was assessed by statistical-based indexes including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve (AUC). Results indicate that all the five machine learning models performed well for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment, but the Logistic Model Tree model (AUC = 0.932) had the highest goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy, followed by the Logistic Regression (AUC = 0.932), Naïve Bayes Tree (AUC = 0.864), ANN (AUC = 0.860), and Support Vector Machine (AUC = 0.834) models. Therefore, we recommend the use of the Logistic Model Tree model in shallow landslide mapping programs in semi-arid regions to help decision makers, planners, land-use managers, and government agencies mitigate the hazard and risk.

Objective: To recognize the causality of environmental factors (i.e. temperature, humidity and sun exposure) on nutritional variables, specifically body water balance and water-seeking behaviour., Design: Author perspective., Setting: Global., Participants: Not applicable., Results: A free-standing code supplement is provided to facilitate investigators in accessing meteorological data for incorporation into analyses related to nutrition and hydration., Conclusions: Analytical models related to human hydration should account for the environment de rigueur.

In biomedical cohort studies for assessing the association between an outcome variable and a set of covariates, usually, some covariates can only be measured on a subgroup of study subjects. An important design question is-which subjects to select into the subgroup to increase statistical efficiency. When the outcome is binary, one may adopt a case-control sampling design or a balanced case-control design where cases and controls are further matched on a small number of complete discrete covariates. While the latter achieves success in estimating odds ratio (OR) parameters for the matching covariates, similar two-phase design options have not been explored for the remaining covariates, especially the incompletely collected ones. This is of great importance in studies where the covariates of interest cannot be completely collected. To this end, assuming that an external model is available to relate the outcome and complete covariates, we propose a novel sampling scheme that oversamples cases and controls with worse goodness-of-fit based on the external model and further matches them on complete covariates similarly to the balanced design. We develop a pseudolikelihood method for estimating OR parameters. Through simulation studies and explorations in a real-cohort study, we find that our design generally leads to reduced asymptotic variances of the OR estimates and the reduction for the matching covariates is comparable to that of the balanced design., (© 2019 The International Biometric Society.)

Background: In the three-dimensional kinematic analysis of the trunk during human locomotion, a multi-segmental rigid-body model would be a better representation for the trunk compared with a single rigid-body model with regard to goodness-of-fit. However, there is a trade-off between data fitting and the simplicity of the model., Research Question: This study aimed to determine the optimal number of rigid-body segments during walking and running using Akaike's information criterion (AIC), which determines the model that has goodness-of-fit and is generalizable., Methods: Empirically obtained kinematic data for the trunk during walking and running were fitted by one-, two-, three-, and six-linked rigid-body models using a nonlinear optimization algorithm. The relative quality of these models was assessed using their bias-corrected AIC (AICc) value., Results: The AICc values of two- and three-linked rigid-body models were significantly smaller than those of one- or six-segment models for the walking trial. For the running trial, the AICc values of two-, three-, and six-segment models were significantly smaller than that of the single rigid-body model., Discussion: These results suggest that both two- and three-linked rigid-body models would be better than the one- and six-linked rigid-body representations for analyzing trunk movement during walking, whereas the two-, three-, and six-linked models would be comparably well-balanced models in terms of both the goodness-of-fit and generalizability for running analysis., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)