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The isolated sub-Antarctic islands are of major ecological interest because of their unique species diversity and long history of limited human disturbance. However, since the presence of Europeans, these islands and their sensitive biota have been under increasing pressure due to human activity and associated biological invasions. In such delicate ecosystems, biological invasions are an exceptional threat that may be further amplified by climate change. We examined the invasion trajectory of the blowfly Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy 1830). First introduced in the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands in the 1970s, it is thought to have persisted only in sheltered microclimates for several decades. Here, we show that, in recent decades, C. vicina has been able to establish itself more widely. We combine experimental thermal developmental data with long-term ecological and meteorological monitoring to address whether warming conditions help explain its current success and dynamics in the eastern Kerguelen Islands. We found that warming temperatures and accumulated degree days could explain the species' phenological and long-term invasion dynamics, indicating that climate change has likely assisted its establishment. This study represents a unique long-term view of a polar invader and stresses the rapidly increasing susceptibility of cold regions to invasion under climate change.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2022 Lee et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The flightless beetle Merizodus soledadinus, native to the Falkland Islands and southern South America, was introduced to the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands in the early Twentieth Century. Using available literature data, in addition to collecting more than 2000 new survey (presence/absence) records of M. soledadinus over the 1991-2018 period, we confirmed the best estimate of the introduction date of M. soledadinus to the archipelago, and tracked subsequent changes in its abundance and geographical distribution. The range expansion of this flightless insect was initially slow, but has accelerated over the past 2 decades, in parallel with increased local abundance. Human activities may have facilitated further local colonization by M. soledadinus, which is now widespread in the eastern part of the archipelago. This predatory insect is a major threat to the native invertebrate fauna, in particular to the endemic wingless flies Anatalanta aptera and Calycopteryx moseleyi which can be locally eliminated by the beetle. Our distribution data also suggest an accelerating role of climate change in the range expansion of M. soledadinus, with populations now thriving in low altitude habitats. Considering that no control measures, let alone eradication, are practicable, it is essential to limit any further local range expansion of this aggressively invasive insect through human assistance. This study confirms the crucial importance of long term biosurveillance for the detection and monitoring of non-native species and the timely implementation of control measures.

Ecophenotypes reflect local matches between organisms and their environment, and show plasticity across generations in response to current living conditions. Plastic responses in shell morphology and shell growth have been widely studied in gastropods and are often related to environmental calcium availability, which influences shell biomineralisation. To date, all of these studies have overlooked micro-scale structure of the shell, in addition to how it is related to species responses in the context of environmental pressure. This study is the first to demonstrate that environmental factors induce a bi-modal variation in the shell micro-scale structure of a land gastropod. Notodiscus hookeri is the only native land snail present in the Crozet Archipelago (sub-Antarctic region). The adults have evolved into two ecophenotypes, which are referred to here as MS (mineral shell) and OS (organic shell). The MS-ecophenotype is characterised by a thick mineralised shell. It is primarily distributed along the coastline, and could be associated to the presence of exchangeable calcium in the clay minerals of the soils. The Os-ecophenotype is characterised by a thin organic shell. It is primarily distributed at high altitudes in the mesic and xeric fell-fields in soils with large particles that lack clay and exchangeable calcium. Snails of the Os-ecophenotype are characterised by thinner and larger shell sizes compared to snails of the MS-ecophenotype, indicating a trade-off between mineral thickness and shell size. This pattern increased along a temporal scale; whereby, older adult snails were more clearly separated into two clusters compared to the younger adult snails. The prevalence of glycine-rich proteins in the organic shell layer of N. hookeri, along with the absence of chitin, differs to the organic scaffolds of molluscan biominerals. The present study provides new insights for testing the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity in response to spatial and temporal environmental variations.

Metabolic fingerprinting can elucidate rearrangements of metabolic networks in organisms exposed to various environmental conditions. Maintenance of organismal performance occurs by alterations in metabolic fluxes and pathways, resulting in habitat-specific metabolic signatures. Several insects of sub-Antarctic Islands, including the wingless flies Anatalanta aptera and Calycopteryx moseleyi, are exposed to saline organic matter accumulated along littoral margins. However, C. moseleyi has long been considered restricted to a habitat of lower salinity, the Kerguelen cabbage. High C. moseleyi densities identified in saline decaying seaweeds are intriguing, and may involve osmoregulatory adjustments including accumulation of osmoprotectants. In the present work, we examined quantitative metabotypes (metabolic phenotypes) among wild C. moseleyi individuals from seaweeds versus non-saline Kerguelen cabbages. They were compared to metabotypes from wild A. aptera, a common fly on seaweed. Statistical procedures designed to magnify between-class differences failed to clearly separate C. moseleyi metabotypes from cabbage and seaweed, despite contrasted morphotypes, diets, and salinities. A. aptera exhibited higher glycerol, inositol, trehalose, and other osmoprotectants concentrations that may enhance its performance under saline environments. Seaweed may represent a secondary niche in C. moseleyi, promoted by the marked reduction in Kerguelen cabbage frequency subsequent to climate change, and herbivorous pressures caused by rabbit invasion., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Invasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks thereof broadly understood for most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most significant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no comprehensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year's first season (2007-2008) and assessing propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica's climate. For an evaluation of the situation in 2100, we use modeled climates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario A1B [Nakićenović N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK)]. Visitors carrying seeds average 9.5 seeds per person, although as vectors, scientists carry greater propagule loads than tourists. Annual tourist numbers (∼33,054) are higher than those of scientists (∼7,085), thus tempering these differences in propagule load. Alien species establishment is currently most likely for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Recent founder populations of several alien species in this area corroborate these findings. With climate change, risks will grow in the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea, and East Antarctic coastal regions. Our evidence-based assessment demonstrates which parts of Antarctica are at growing risk from alien species that may become invasive and provides the means to mitigate this threat now and into the future as the continent's climate changes.

The relationship between nutritional requirements and the availability or quality of food is a prime parameter in determining the geographical expansion of invasive insects. At the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands, the invasive ground beetle Merizodus soledadinus becomes the main invertebrate predator when it colonizes new habitats, leading to the local extinction of native fly species. Such changes in the structure of prey communities may alter the energy management (storage and expenditure) of this predator. In this species, we monitored survival and body mass during food deprivation, in addition to evaluating the effects of two distinct diets (maggots versus enchytraeids) on the consumption and restoration of body reserves (sugars and triglycerides). We found that adults can starve for more than 60 days, and feed every 3.76 days on average when food is available. We recorded higher predation rates on maggots, associated with steeper body mass variations, compared to enchytraeids. Sugars and triglycerides were significantly consumed during food deprivation and restored after refeeding, but varied similarly among individuals supplied on the distinct diets. Other parameters may determine the food preferences observed, such as salt content in prey tissues, because M. soledadinus mainly feeds in hypersaline foreshore habitats, and may limit the consumption of osmotic conformers., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Alien microbes, fungi, plants and animals occur on most of the sub-Antarctic islands and some parts of the Antarctic continent. These have arrived over approximately the last two centuries, coincident with human activity in the region. Introduction routes have varied, but are largely associated with movement of people and cargo in connection with industrial, national scientific program and tourist operations. The large majority of aliens are European in origin. They have both direct and indirect impacts on the functioning of species-poor Antarctic ecosystems, in particular including substantial loss of local biodiversity and changes to ecosystem processes. With rapid climate change occurring in some parts of Antarctica, elevated numbers of introductions and enhanced success of colonization by aliens are likely, with consequent increases in impacts on ecosystems. Mitigation measures that will substantially reduce the risk of introductions to Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic must focus on reducing propagule loads on humans, and their food, cargo, and transport vessels.

•  Early development of Kerguelen cabbage (Pringlea antiscorbutica) was studied in the Kerguelen archipelago, its natural habitat, and under laboratory conditions. Polyamines, which are involved in developmental processes and responses to stress in several plant species, were used as markers of physiological status of P. antiscorbutica seedlings. •  Analysis under laboratory conditions of responses to low water availability and to salinity enabled identification of major environmental constraints restricting seedling development in the subantarctic region. •  Salt stress was found to modify polyamine distribution between seedling organs, in controlled experiments and in the field, thus indicating that polyamine responses to salt stress were functional in the field at Kerguelen. By contrast, exposure to low water availability induced different polyamine responses in controlled experiments and in the field. •  The present work thus shows that, under certain conditions, polyamine concentrations can be used as a marker of specific stress responses of seedlings in the field. Discrepancies are discussed in terms of growth conditions in the laboratory and of combined stresses in natural habitats.

A survey of the temporal pattern of population structure and feeding activity of the seabird tick Ixodes uriae was conducted for the first time in two host species colonies: King penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus halli) and Macaroni penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus chrysolophus). The life cycle of the tick was investigated over 3 years in a King penguin colony and 2 years in a Macaroni penguin colony at Possession Island (Crozet Archipelago). There was a marked seasonal feeding activity pattern of ticks in both host species, connected with the presence of birds during the breeding season. Although the King penguin colonies were occupied throughout the year by birds, the favourable period for engorgement was limited to 3.5-4.5 months, and almost all the ticks overwintered in the unengorged state. Consequently, I. uriae probably completed its life cycle over 3 years in King penguin colonies. In contrast, this life cycle could be shortened to 2 years in Macaroni penguin colonies, as a result of a different timetable of the presence of birds for breeding and moulting. The relationships between such plasticity and the host behaviour and subantarctic climatic conditions are discussed.

Climatic variations over the two last centuries are well known for the northern hemisphere, but very little information is available for subantarctic islands. In this paper, we combined geomorphological observations and a new biological dating technique to propose a reconstruction of the cool and warm events in the Kerguelen Islands during the last two centuries. The usual dating methods, such as dendrochonology or C 14 dating, are not applicable on Kerguelen. Therefore, the radial growth ofAzorella selago Hook., a cushion-forming Umbelliferae species, was used to estimate the absolute age of deglaciated areas. Glacial margins in the vicinity of the Glacier Ampère constitute the most complete chronosequence studied in this part of the world and illustrate seven warming-cooling cycles. This new dating technique is validated by the close relationship between the calculated ages of these climatic events and the results of several studies in other circumantarctic regions. The Glacier Ampère reached its maximum extent at the end of the eighteenth century. Since 1799, two discrete phases may be distinguished: the first period (1799-1965) is characterized by small glacier fluctuations (1 km retreat overall) whereas in the second period (1966 to the present), the retreat is much more rapid (about 3 km). It seems that the current dramatic glacial retreat on Kerguelen is related to a major change in the climate and could illustrate a more general southern hemispheric pattern of glacial fluctuations.