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Plague, a fleaborne rodent-associated zoonosis, is a neglected disease with most recent cases reported from east and central Africa and Madagascar. Because of its low incidence and sporadic occurrence, most of our knowledge of plague ecology, prevention, and control derives from investigations conducted in response to human cases. Long-term studies (which are uncommon) are required to generate data to support plague surveillance, prevention, and control recommendations. Here we describe a 15-year, multidisciplinary commitment to plague in the West Nile region of Uganda that led to significant advances in our understanding of where and when persons are at risk for plague infection and how to reduce morbidity and mortality. These findings provide data-driven support for several existing recommendations on plague surveillance and prevention and may be generalizable to other plague foci. more...

Rattus rattus was first reported from the West Nile Region of Uganda in 1961, an event that preceded the appearance of the first documented human plague outbreak in 1970. We investigated how invasive R. rattus and native small mammal populations, as well as their fleas, have changed in recent decades. Over an 18-month period, a total of 2,959 small mammals were captured, sampled, and examined for fleas, resulting in the identification of 20 small mammal taxa that were hosts to 5,109 fleas (nine species). Over three-fourths (75.8%) of captured mammals belonged to four taxa: R. rattus, which predominated inside huts, and Arvicanthis niloticus, Mastomys sp., and Crocidura sp., which were more common outside huts. These mammals were hosts for 85.8% of fleas collected, including the efficient plague vectors Xenopsylla cheopis and X. brasiliensis, as well as likely enzootic vectors, Dinopsyllus lypusus and Ctenophthalmus bacopus. Flea loads on small mammals were higher in certain environments in villages with a recent history of plague compared to those that lacked such a history. The significance of these results is discussed in relation to historical data, the initial spread of plague in the WNR and the continuing threat posed by the disease., (© 2020 The Society for Vector Ecology.) more...

Upon acquiring two unique plasmids (pMT1 and pPCP1) and genome rearrangement during the evolution from Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, the plague causative agent Y. pestis is closely related to Y. pseudotuberculosis genetically but became highly virulent. We developed a pentaplex real-time PCR assay that not only detects both Yersinia species but also differentiates Y. pestis strains regarding their plasmid profiles. The five targets used were Y. pestis-specific ypo2088, caf1, and pst located on the chromosome, plasmids pMT1 and pPCP1, respectively; Y. pseudotuberculosis-specific chromosomal gene opgG; and 18S ribosomal RNA gene as an internal control for flea DNA. All targets showed 100% specificity and high sensitivity with limits of detection ranging from 1 fg to 100 fg, with Y. pestis-specific pst as the most sensitive target. Using the assay, Y. pestis strains were differentiated 100% by their known plasmid profiles. Testing Y. pestis and Y. pseudotuberculosis-spiked flea DNA showed there is no interference from flea DNA on the amplification of targeted genes. Finally, we applied the assay for testing 102 fleas collected from prairie dog burrows where prairie dog die-off was reported months before flea collection. All flea DNA was amplified by 18S rRNA; no Y. pseudotuberculosis was detected; one flea was positive for all Y. pestis-specific targets, confirming local Y. pestis transmission. Our results indicated the assay is sensitive and specific for the detection and differentiation of Y. pestis and Y. pseudotuberculosis. The assay can be used in field investigations for the rapid identification of the plague causative agent., (© 2020 The Authors. MicrobiologyOpen published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.) more...

Plague is a low incidence flea-borne zoonosis that is often fatal if treatment is delayed or inadequate. Outbreaks occur sporadically and human cases are often preceded by epizootics among rodents. Early recognition of epizootics coupled with appropriate prevention measures should reduce plague morbidity and mortality. For nearly a century, the flea index (a measure of fleas per host) has been used as a measure of risk for epizootic spread and human plague case occurrence, yet the practicality and effectiveness of its use in surveillance programs has not been evaluated rigorously. We sought to determine whether long-term monitoring of the Xenopsylla flea index on hut-dwelling rats in sentinel villages in the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda accurately predicted plague occurrence in the surrounding parish. Based on observations spanning ~6 yr, we showed that on average, the Xenopsylla flea index increased prior to the start of the annual plague season and tended to be higher in years when plague activity was reported in humans or rodents compared with years when it was not. However, this labor-intensive effort had limited spatial coverage and was a poor predictor of plague activity within sentinel parishes., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2019.) more...

Rodents pose a significant threat to human health, particularly in rural subsistence farming communities in Africa, where rodents threaten food security and serve as reservoirs of human pathogens, including the agents of plague, leptospirosis, murine typhus, rat-bite fever, Lassa fever, salmonellosis, and campylobacteriosis. Our study focused on the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda, where a majority of residents live in Uganda government-defined poverty, rely on subsistence farming for a living, and frequently experience incursions of rodents into their homes. In this study, we show that rodent removal was achieved in a median of 6 days of intensive lethal trapping with multiple trap types (range: 0-16 days). However, rodent abundance in 68.9% of homesteads returned to pretreatment levels within a median of 8 weeks (range 1-24 weeks), and at least a single rodent was captured in all homesteads by a median of 2 weeks (range 1-16 weeks) after removal efforts were terminated. Results were similar between homesteads that practiced rodent control whether or not their neighbors implemented similar strategies. Overall, intensive lethal trapping inside homes appears to be effective at reducing rodent abundance, but control was short lived after trapping ceased. more...

Few studies have been able to provide experimental evidence of the ability of fleas to maintain rodent-associated Bartonella infections and excrete these bacteria. These data are important for understanding the transmission cycles and prevalence of these bacteria in hosts and vectors. We used an artificial feeding approach to expose groups of the oriental rat flea (Xenopsylla cheopis Rothschild; Siphonaptera, Pulicidae) to rat blood inoculated with varying concentrations of Bartonella elizabethae Daly (Bartonellaceae: Rhizobiales). Flea populations were maintained by membrane feeding on pathogen-free bloodmeals for up to 13 d post infection. Individual fleas and pools of flea feces were tested for the presence of Bartonella DNA using molecular methods (quantitative and conventional polymerase chain reaction [PCR]). The threshold number of Bartonellae required in the infectious bloodmeal for fleas to be detected as positive was 106 colony-forming units per milliliter (CFU/ml). Individual fleas were capable of harboring infections for at least 13 d post infection and continuously excreted Bartonella DNA in their feces over the same period. This experiment demonstrated that X. cheopis are capable of acquiring and excreting B. elizabethae over several days. These results will guide future work to model and understand the role of X. cheopis in the natural transmission cycle of rodent-borne Bartonella species. Future experiments using this artificial feeding approach will be useful for examining the horizontal transmission of B. elizabethae or other rodent-associated Bartonella species to naïve hosts and for determining the viability of excreted bacteria. more...

Plague, primarily a disease of rodents, is most frequently transmitted by fleas and causes potentially fatal infections in humans. In Uganda, plague is endemic to the West Nile region. Primary prevention for plague includes control of rodent hosts or flea vectors, but targeting these efforts is difficult given the sporadic nature of plague epizootics in the region and limited resource availability. Here, we present a community-based strategy to detect and report rodent deaths (rat fall), an early sign of epizootics. Laboratory testing of rodent carcasses is used to trigger primary and secondary prevention measures: indoor residual spraying (IRS) and community-based plague education, respectively. During the first 3 years of the program, individuals from 142 villages reported 580 small mammal deaths; 24 of these tested presumptive positive for Yersinia pestis by fluorescence microscopy. In response, for each of the 17 affected communities, village-wide IRS was conducted to control rodent-associated fleas within homes, and community sensitization was conducted to raise awareness of plague signs and prevention strategies. No additional presumptive Y. pestis -positive carcasses were detected in these villages within the 2-month expected duration of residual activity for the insecticide used in IRS. Despite comparatively high historic case counts, no human plague cases were reported from villages participating in the surveillance program; five cases were reported from elsewhere in the districts. We evaluate community participation and timeliness of response, report the frequency of human plague cases in participating and surrounding villages, and evaluate whether a program such as this could provide a sustainable model for plague prevention in endemic areas. more...

Fleas ( n = 407) were collected from small mammals trapped inside huts and surroundings of homesteads in five villages within the Arua and Zombo districts of Uganda. The most common flea species were Dinopsyllus lypusus (26%) and Xenopsylla cheopis (50%). Off-host fleas ( n = 225) were collected inside huts by using Kilonzo flea traps. The majority of the off-host fleas were Ctenocephalides felis (80%). All fleas were examined for the presence of Bartonella spp., Rickettsia spp., and Yersinia spp. Bartonella DNA was detected in 91 fleas, with an overall prevalence of 14%. Bartonella prevalence was significantly higher in rodent or shrew fleas than in off-host fleas (22% versus 1%). The majority of Bartonella -positive fleas were of the species D. lypusus (61%), X. cheopis (20%), and Ctenophthalmus calceatus (14%). Sequencing analysis identified 12 Bartonella genetic variants, 9 of which belonged to the zoonotic pathogen B. elizabethae species complex. Rickettsia DNA was detected in 143 fleas, giving an overall prevalence of 23%, with a significantly higher prevalence in off-host fleas than in rodent or shrew fleas (56% versus 4%). The majority (88%) of Rickettsia -positive fleas were C. felis and were collected from Kilonzo traps, while a small portion (10%) were X. cheopis collected from rodents. Sequencing analysis identified six Rickettsia genogroups that belonged either to zoonotic R. felis or to the closely related " Candidatus Ricksettia asemboensis" and " Candidatus Ricksettia sengalensis." Yersinia DNA was not detected in the fleas tested. These observations suggested that fleas in northwestern Uganda commonly carry the zoonotic agents B. elizabethae and R. felis and potentially play an important role in transmitting these infections to humans. IMPORTANCE Fleas play critical roles in transmitting some infections among animals and from animals to humans. Detection of pathogens in fleas is important to determine human risks for flea-borne diseases and can help guide diagnosis and treatment. Our findings of high prevalence rates of B. elizabethae and R. felis in fleas in the Arua and Zombo districts of Uganda implicate these agents as potential causative agents of undiagnosed febrile illnesses in this area. more...

Our longitudinal study of plague dynamics was conducted in north-central New Mexico to identify which species in the community were infected with plague, to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of the dynamics of plague epizootics, and to describe the dynamics of Yersinia pestis infection within individual hosts. A total of 3156 fleas collected from 535 small mammals of 8 species were tested for Y. pestis DNA. Nine fleas collected from six southern plains woodrats (Neotoma micropus) and from one rock squirrel (Otospermophilus variegatus) were positive for the pla gene of Y. pestis. None of 127 fleas collected from 17 woodrat nests was positive. Hemagglutinating antibodies to the Y. pestis-specific F1 antigen were detected in 11 rodents of 6 species. All parts of the investigated area were subjected to local disappearance of woodrats. Despite the active die-offs, some woodrats always were present within the relatively limited endemic territory and apparently were never exposed to plague. Our observations suggest that small-scale die-offs in woodrats can support maintenance of plague in the active U.S. Southwestern focus. more...

Plague is an often fatal, primarily flea-borne rodent-associated zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis. We sought to identify risk factors for plague by comparing villages with and without a history of human plague cases within a model-defined plague focus in the West Nile Region of Uganda. Although rat (Rattus rattus) abundance was similar inside huts within case and control villages, contact rates between rats and humans (as measured by reported rat bites) and host-seeking flea loads were higher in case villages. In addition, compared with persons in control villages, persons in case villages more often reported sleeping on reed or straw mats, storing food in huts where persons sleep, owning dogs and allowing them into huts where persons sleep, storing garbage inside or near huts, and cooking in huts where persons sleep. Compared with persons in case villages, persons in control villages more commonly reported replacing thatch roofing, and growing coffee, tomatoes, onions, and melons in agricultural plots adjacent to their homesteads. Rodent and flea control practices, knowledge of plague, distance to clinics, and most care-seeking practices were similar between persons in case villages and persons in control villages. Our findings reinforce existing plague prevention recommendations and point to potentially advantageous local interventions., (© The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.) more...

Rodents pose serious threats to human health and economics, particularly in developing countries where the animals play a dual role as pests: they are reservoirs of human pathogens, and they inflict damage levels to stored products sufficient to cause food shortages. To assess the magnitude of the damage caused by rodents to crops, their level of contact with humans, and to better understand current food storage and rodent control practices, we conducted a survey of 37 households from 17 subsistence farming villages within the West Nile region of Uganda. Our survey revealed that rodents cause both pre- and post-harvest damage to crops. Evidence of rodent access to stored foods was reported in conjunction with each of the reported storage practices. Approximately half of the respondents reported that at least one family member had been bitten by a rat within the previous three months. Approximately two-thirds of respondents practiced some form of rodent control in their homes. The abundance of rodents was similar within homes that practiced or did not practice rodent control. Together, our results show that current efforts are inadequate for effectively reducing rodent abundance in homes. more...

Over the past two decades, the majority of human plague cases have been reported from areas in Africa, including Uganda. In an effort to develop affordable plague control methods within an integrated vector control framework, we evaluated the efficacy of indoor residual spraying (IRS) techniques commonly used for mosquito control for controlling fleas on hut-dwelling commensal rodents in a plague-endemic region of Uganda. We evaluated both the standard IRS spraying (walls and ceiling) and a modified IRS technique that included insecticide application on not only on walls and ceiling but also a portion of the floor of each treated hut. Our study demonstrated that both the standard and modified IRS applications were effective at significantly reducing the flea burden and flea infestation of commensal rodents for up to 100 d after application, suggesting that IRS could potentially provide simultaneous control of mosquito and fleaborne diseases. more...

Socioeconomic indicators associated with temporal changes in the distribution of human plague cases in New Mexico were investigated for 1976-2007. In the 1980s, cases were more likely in census block groups with poor housing conditions, but by the 2000s, cases were associated with affluent areas concentrated in the Santa Fe-Albuquerque region. more...

Quantifying the abundance of host-seeking fleas is critical for assessing risk of human exposure to flea-borne disease agents, including Yersinia pestis, the etiological agent of plague. Yet, reliable measures of the efficacy of existing host-seeking flea collection methods are lacking. In this study, we compare the efficacy of passive and active methods for the collection of host-seeking fleas in both the laboratory and human habitations in a plague-endemic region of northwest Uganda. In the laboratory, lighted "Kilonzo" flea traps modified with either blinking lights, the creation of shadows or the generation of carbon dioxide were less efficient at collecting Xenopsylla cheopis Rothchild and Ctenocephalides felis Bouché fleas than an active collection method using white cotton socks or cotton flannel. Passive collection using Kilonzo light traps in the laboratory collected significantly more X. cheopis than C. felis and active collection, using white socks and flannel, collected significantly more C. felis than X. cheopis. In field studies conducted in Uganda, Kilonzo traps using a flashlight were similar in their collection efficacy to Kilonzo traps using kerosene lamps. However, in contrast to laboratory studies, Kilonzo flea traps using flashlights collected a greater number of fleas than swabbing. Within human habitations in Uganda, Kilonzo traps were especially useful for collecting C. felis, the dominant species found in human habitations in this area. more...

Although several health departments collect coyote blood samples for plague surveillance, the association between reported human cases and coyote seroprevalence rates remains anecdotal. Using data from an endemic region of the United States, we sought to quantify this association. From 1974 to 1998, about 2,276 coyote blood samples from four Arizona counties were tested for serological evidence of exposure to Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague. Using a titer threshold presumed to be indicative of recent infection (serum titers of ≥1:256), we found a statistically significant relationship between years with >17% sero-positive coyotes and years with two or more human cases reported. Moreover, when the annual coyote seroprevalence rates were dichotomized at 17%, 84% of the years were correctly classified using four biologically relevant meteorological variables in a linear regression. This is the first time a statistically significant temporal association between human plague cases and coyote seroprevalence rates has been shown. However, issues with data resolution and surveillance effort that potentially limit the public health utility of using coyote seroprevalence rates are discussed. more...

Plague, caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis, is a severe, often fatal disease. This study focuses on the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda, where limited information is available regarding environmental and behavioral risk factors associated with plague infection. We conducted observational surveys of 10 randomly selected huts within historically classified case and control villages (four each) two times during the dry season of 2006 (N = 78 case huts and N = 80 control huts), which immediately preceded a large plague outbreak. By coupling a previously published landscape-level statistical model of plague risk with this observational survey, we were able to identify potential residence-based risk factors for plague associated with huts within historic case or control villages (e.g., distance to neighboring homestead and presence of pigs near the home) and huts within areas previously predicted as elevated risk or low risk (e.g., corn and other annual crops grown near the home, water storage in the home, and processed commercial foods stored in the home). The identified variables are consistent with current ecologic theories on plague transmission dynamics. This preliminary study serves as a foundation for future case control studies in the area. more...

Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is established across western North America, and yet little is known of what determines the broad-scale dimensions of its overall range. We tested whether its North American distribution represents a composite of individual host-plague associations (the "Host Niche Hypothesis"), or whether mammal hosts become infected only at sites overlapping ecological conditions appropriate for plague transmission and maintenance (the "Plague Niche Hypothesis"). We took advantage of a novel data set summarizing plague records in wild mammals newly digitized from paper-based records at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to develop range-wide tests of ecological niche similarity between mammal host niches and plague-infected host niches. Results indicate that plague infections occur under circumstances distinct from the broader ecological distribution of hosts, and that plague-infected niches are similar among hosts; hence, evidence coincides with the predictions of the Plague Niche Hypothesis, and contrasts with those of the Host Niche Hypothesis. The "plague niche" is likely driven by ecological requirements of vector flea species. more...

In recent decades, the majority of human plague cases (caused by Yersinia pestis) have been reported from Africa. In an effort to reduce the risk of the disease in this area, we evaluated the efficacy of a host-targeted rodent bait containing the insecticide imidacloprid for controlling fleas on house-dwelling commensal rodents in a plague-endemic region of northwestern Uganda. Results demonstrated that the use of a palatable, rodent-targeted, wax-based bait cube was effective at reducing the prevalence of fleas on commensal rodents and flea burdens on these animals at day 7 postbait exposure, but lacked significant residual activity, allowing flea populations to rebound in the absence of additional bait applications. Our results indicate the use of a palatable host-targeted bait block containing imidacloprid was an effective technique for quickly reducing flea numbers on rodents in northwest Uganda and, thus, could be useful for lowering the potential risk of human flea bite exposures during plague outbreaks if applied continuously during the period of risk. more...

Plague, a life-threatening flea-borne zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, has most commonly been reported from eastern Africa and Madagascar in recent decades. In these regions and elsewhere, prevention and control efforts are typically targeted at fine spatial scales, yet risk maps for the disease are often presented at coarse spatial resolutions that are of limited value in allocating scarce prevention and control resources. In our study, we sought to identify sub-village level remotely sensed correlates of elevated risk of human exposure to plague bacteria and to project the model across the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda and into neighboring regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our model yielded an overall accuracy of 81%, with sensitivities and specificities of 89% and 71%, respectively. Risk was higher above 1,300 meters than below, and the remotely sensed covariates that were included in the model implied that localities that are wetter, with less vegetative growth and more bare soil during the dry month of January (when agricultural plots are typically fallow) pose an increased risk of plague case occurrence. Our results suggest that environmental and landscape features play a large part in classifying an area as ecologically conducive to plague activity. However, it is clear that future studies aimed at identifying behavioral and fine-scale ecological risk factors in the West Nile region are required to fully assess the risk of human exposure to Y. pestis. more...

In Uganda, the West Nile region is the primary epidemiologic focus for plague. The aims of this study were to 1) describe flea-host associations within a plague-endemic region of Uganda, 2) compare flea loads between villages with or without a history of reported human plague cases and between sampling periods, and 3) determine vector loads on small mammal hosts in domestic, peridomestic, and sylvatic settings. We report that the roof rat, Rattus rattus, is the most common rodent collected in human dwellings in each of the 10 villages within the two districts sampled. These rats were commonly infested with efficient Y. pestis vectors, Xenopsylla cheopis and X. brasiliensis in Arua and Nebbi districts, respectively. In peridomestic and sylvatic areas in both districts, the Nile rat, Arvicanthus niloticus, was the most abundant rodent and hosted the highest diversity of flea species. When significant temporal differences in flea loads were detected, they were typically lower during the dry month of January. We did not detect any significant differences in small mammal abundance or flea loads between villages with our without a history of human plague, indicating that conditions during inter-epizootic periods are similar between these areas. Future studies are needed to determine whether flea abundance or species composition changes during epizootics when humans are most at risk of exposure. more...

Human plague is found in the West Nile region of Uganda and Democratic Republic of the Congo where flea vectors are often found inhabiting homes. We have developed a multiplexed, real-time polymerase chain reaction assay targeting mitochondrial genes that is capable of detecting blood meal sources in fleas collected off-host in East Africa. Laboratory tests showed that the assay is specific for the intended targets and has a detection limit below one picogram of DNA. Testing of wild-caught fleas from the Democratic Republic of Congo suggests that humans are at significant risk from flea-borne disease and implicates domestic animals including cats, chickens, and the black rat as potential sources of human exposure to fleas and flea-borne diseases. Future application of the assay will help us better define the ecology of plague in East Africa to implement effective control measures to combat the spread of disease. more...

The West Nile region of Uganda represents an epidemiologic focus for human plague in east Africa. However, limited capacity for diagnostic laboratory testing means few clinically diagnosed cases are confirmed and the true burden of disease is undetermined. The aims of the study were 1) describe the spatial distribution of clinical plague cases in the region, 2) identify ecologic correlates of incidence, and 3) incorporate these variables into predictive models that define areas of plague risk. The model explained 74% of the incidence variation and revealed that cases were more common above 1,300 m than below. Remotely-sensed variables associated with differences in soil or vegetation were also identified as incidence predictors. The study demonstrated that plague incidence can be modeled at parish-level scale based on environmental variables and identified parishes where cases may be under-reported and enhanced surveillance and preventative measures may be implemented to decrease the burden of plague. more...

In recent decades, the majority of human plague cases (caused by Yersinia pestis) have been reported from Africa. In northwest Uganda, which has had recent plague outbreaks, cat fleas (Ctenocephalides felis) have been reported as the most common fleas in the home environment, which is suspected to be a major exposure site for human plague in this country. In the past, C. felis has been viewed as only a nuisance-biting insect because limited laboratory studies suggested it is incapable of transmitting Y. pestis or is an inefficient vector. Our laboratory study shows that C. felis is a competent vector of plague bacteria, but that efficiency is low compared with another flea species collected in the same area: the oriental rat flea, Xenopsylla cheopis. On the other hand, despite its low vector efficiency, C. felis is the most common flea in human habitations in a plague-endemic region of Uganda (Arua and Nebbi Districts), and occasionally infests potential rodent reservoirs of Y. pestis such as the roof rat (Rattus rattus) or the Nile rat (Arvicanthis niloticus). Plague control programs in this region should remain focused on reducing rat flea populations, although our findings imply that cat fleas should not be ignored by these programs as they could play a significant role as secondary vectors. more...

Plague and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) are severe, often fatal diseases in humans that share a broad epidemiologic focus in the southwestern United States. Prevention of these diseases relies heavily on education and reducing rodent abundance in peridomestic environments. Resources for these activities are limited. Therefore, identifying areas sharing elevated risk for these two relatively rare but severe diseases could be useful for targeting limited public health resources. Using logistic regression and geographic information system-based modeling, we identified environmental predictors of elevated risk for plague (distance to piñon-juniper ecotones and amount of precipitation) and HPS (elevation and amount of precipitation) in northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Our models accurately identified case locations as suitable (producer accuracies of 93% for plague and 96% for HPS) and indicated that approximately half of the coverage area was classified as suitable risk for either plague or HPS. The probability of a site being classified as suitable for plague was strongly correlated with its probability of being classified as suitable for HPS (rhos = 0.88). Increased risk for both diseases occurred for approximately 37% of the coverage area. more...

Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, has been detected in fleas and mammals throughout the western United States. This highly virulent infection is rare in humans, surveillance of the disease is expensive, and it often was assumed that risk of exposure to Y. pestis is high in most of the western United States. For these reasons, some local health departments in these plague-affected regions have hesitated to undertake surveillance and other prevention activities. To aid in targeting limited public health resources, we created a fine-resolution human plague risk map for New Mexico, the state reporting more than half the human cases in the United States. Our GIS-based model included three landscape features-a nonlinear relationship with elevation, distance to water, and distance to the ecotone between Rocky Mountain/Great Basin open and closed coniferous woodlands-and yielded an overall accuracy of approximately 80%. The model classified 17.25% of the state as posing significant risk of exposure to humans on privately or tribally owned land, which suggests that resource requirements for regular surveillance and control of plague could be effectively focused on < 20% of the state. more...

Plague is a rare but highly virulent flea-borne zoonotic disease caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Yersinia pestis Yersin. Identifying areas at high risk of human exposure to the etiological agent of plague could provide a useful tool for targeting limited public health resources and reduce the likelihood of misdiagnosis by raising awareness of the disease. We created logistic regression models to identify landscape features associated with areas where humans have acquired plague from 1957 to 2004 in the four-corners region of the United States (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah), and we extrapolated those models within a geographical information system to predict where plague cases are likely to occur within the southwestern United States disease focus. The probability of an area being classified as high-risk plague habitat increased with elevation up to approximately 2300 m and declined as elevation increased thereafter, and declined with distance from key habitat types (e.g., southern Rocky Mountain piñon--juniper [Pinus edulis Engelm. and Juniperus spp.], Colorado plateau piñon--juniper woodland, Rocky Mountain ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P.& C. Lawson var. scopulorum), and southern Rocky Mountain juniper woodland and savanna). The overall accuracy of the model was >82%. Our most conservative model predicted that 14.4% of the four-corners region represented a high risk of peridomestic exposure to Y. pestis. more...

Burrows within black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies on the Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge, Colorado, were dusted with deltamethrin insecticide to reduce flea (Insecta: Siphonaptera) abundance. Flea populations were monitored pre- and posttreatment by combing prairie dogs and collecting fleas from burrows. A single application of deltamethrin significantly reduced populations of the plague vector Oropsylla hirsuta, and other flea species on prairie dogs and in prairie dog burrows for at least 84 d. A plague epizootic on the Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge caused high mortality of prairie dogs on some untreated colonies, but did not appear to affect nearby colonies dusted with deltamethrin. more...

The relationships between climatic variables and the frequency of human plague cases (1960-1997) were modeled by Poisson regression for two adjoining regions in northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico. Model outputs closely agreed with the numbers of cases actually observed, suggesting that temporal variations in plague risk can be estimated by monitoring key climatic variables, most notably maximum daily summer temperature values and time-lagged (1 and 2 year) amounts of late winter (February-March) precipitation. Significant effects also were observed for time-lagged (1 year) summer precipitation in the Arizona model. Increased precipitation during specific periods resulted in increased numbers of expected cases in both regions, as did the number of days above certain lower thresholds for maximum daily summer temperatures (80 degrees F in New Mexico and 85 degrees F in Arizona). The number of days above certain high-threshold temperatures exerted a strongly negative influence on the numbers of expected cases in both the Arizona and New Mexico models (95 degrees F and 90 degrees F, respectively). The climatic variables found to be important in our models are those that would be expected to influence strongly the population dynamics of the rodent hosts and flea vectors of plague. more...