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In the absence of a suspect the forensic aim is investigative, and the focus is one of discerning what genotypes best explain the evidence. In traditional systems, the list of candidate genotypes may become vast if the sample contains DNA from many donors or the information from a minor contributor is swamped by that of major contributors, leading to lower evidential value for a true donor's contribution and, as a result, possibly overlooked or inefficient investigative leads. Recent developments in single-cell analysis offer a way forward, by producing data capable of discriminating genotypes. This is accomplished by first clustering single-cell data by similarity without reference to a known genotype. With good clustering it is reasonable to assume that the scEPGs in a cluster are of a single contributor. With that assumption we determine the probability of a cluster's content given each possible genotype at each locus, which is then used to determine the posterior probability mass distribution for all genotypes by application of Bayes' rule. A decision criterion is then applied such that the sum of the ranked probabilities of all genotypes falling in the set is at least 1-α. This is the credible genotype set and is used to inform database search criteria. Within this work we demonstrate the salience of single-cell analysis by performance testing a set of 630 previously constructed admixtures containing up to 5 donors of balanced and unbalanced contributions. We use scEPGs that were generated by isolating single cells, employing a direct-to-PCR extraction treatment, amplifying STRs that are compliant with existing national databases and applying post-PCR treatments that elicit a detection limit of one DNA copy. We determined that, for these test data, 99.3% of the true genotypes are included in the 99.8% credible set, regardless of the number of donors that comprised the mixture. We also determined that the most probable genotype was the true genotype for 97% of the loci when the number of cells in a cluster was at least two. Since efficient investigative leads will be borne by posterior mass distributions that are narrow and concentrated at the true genotype, we report that, for this test set, 47,900 (86%) loci returned only one credible genotype and of these 47,551 (99%) were the true genotype. When determining the LR for true contributors, 91% of the clusters rendered LR>10 18 , showing the potential of single-cell data to positively affect investigative reporting., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Catherine M. Grgicak, Desmond S. Lun and Ken R. Duffy are authors of US Patent Application for SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR AUTOMATED ANALYSES OF A BIOLOGICAL SAMPLE Patent Application (Application #20220270712)., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The outbreak of a novel coronavirus causing severe acute respiratory syndrome in December 2019 has escalated into a worldwide pandemic. In this work, we propose a compartmental model to describe the dynamics of transmission of infection and use it to obtain the optimal vaccination control. The model accounts for the various stages of the vaccination, and the optimisation is focused on minimising the infections to protect the population and relieve the healthcare system. As a case study, we selected the Republic of Ireland. We use data provided by Ireland's COVID-19 Data-Hub and simulate the evolution of the pandemic with and without the vaccination in place for two different scenarios, one representative of a national lockdown situation and the other indicating looser restrictions in place. One of the main findings of our work is that the optimal approach would involve a vaccination programme where the older population is vaccinated in larger numbers earlier while simultaneously part of the younger population also gets vaccinated to lower the risk of transmission between groups. We compare our simulated results with those of the vaccination policy taken by the Irish government to explore the advantages of our optimisation method. Our comparison suggests that a similar reduction in cases may have been possible even with a reduced set of vaccinations available for use., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Zavrakli et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The consistency between DNA evidence and person(s) of interest (PoI) is summarized by a likelihood ratio (LR): the probability of the data given the PoI contributed divided by the probability given they did not. It is often the case that there are several PoI who may have individually or jointly contributed to the stain. If there is more than one PoI, or the number of contributors (NoC) cannot easily be determined, then several sets of hypotheses are needed, requiring significant resources to complete the interpretation. Recent technological developments in laboratory systems offer a way forward, by enabling production of single cell data. Though single-cell data may be procured by next generation sequencing or capillary electrophoresis workflows, in this work we focus our attention on assessing the consistency between PoIs and a collection of single cell electropherograms (scEPGs) from diploid cells - i.e., leukocytes and epithelial cells. Specifically, we introduce a framework that: I) clusters scEPGs into collections, each originating from one genetic source; II) for each PoI, determines a LR for each cluster of scEPGs; and III) by averaging the likelihood ratios for each PoI across all clusters provides a whole-sample weight of evidence summary. By using Model Based Clustering (MBC) in step I) and an algorithm, named EESCIt for Evidentiary Evaluation of Single Cells, that computes single-cell LRs in step II), we show that 99% of the comparisons rendered log LR values > 0 for true contributors, and of these all but one gave log LR > 5, regardless of the number of donors or whether the smallest contributor donated less than 20% of the cells, greatly expanding the collection of cases for which DNA forensics provides informative results., Competing Interests: Competing interest Catherine M. Grgicak, Desmond S. Lun and Ken R. Duffy are authors to US Patent Application for SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR AUTOMATED ANALYSES OF A BIOLOGICAL SAMPLE Patent Application (Application #20220270712)., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Few techniques can assess phenotype and fate for the same cell simultaneously. Most of the current protocols used to characterize phenotype, although able to generate large datasets, necessitate the destruction of the cell of interest, making it impossible to assess its functional fate. Heterogeneous biological differentiating systems like hematopoiesis are therefore difficult to describe. Building on cell division tracking dyes, we further developed a protocol to simultaneously determine kinship, division number, and differentiation status for many single hematopoietic progenitors. This protocol allows the assessment of the ex vivo differentiation potential of murine and human hematopoietic progenitors, isolated from various biological sources. Moreover, as it is based on flow cytometry and a limited number of reagents, it can quickly generate a large amount of data, at the single-cell level, in a relatively inexpensive manner. We also provide the analytical pipeline for single-cell analysis, combined with a robust statistical framework. As this protocol allows the linking of cell division and differentiation at the single-cell level, it can be used to quantitatively assess symmetric and asymmetric fate commitment, the balance between self-renewal and differentiation, and the number of divisions for a given commitment fate. Altogether, this protocol can be used in experimental designs aiming to unravel the biological differences between hematopoietic progenitors, from a single-cell perspective.

To optimize immunity to pathogens, B lymphocytes generate plasma cells with functionally diverse antibody isotypes. By lineage tracing single cells within differentiating B cell clones, we identified the heritability of discrete fate controlling mechanisms to inform a general mathematical model of B cell fate regulation. Founder cells highly influenced clonal plasma-cell fate, whereas class switch recombination (CSR) was variegated within clones. In turn, these CSR patterns resulted from independent all-or-none expression of both activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID) and IgH germline transcription (GLT), with the latter being randomly re-expressed after each cell division. A stochastic model premised on these molecular transition rules accurately predicted antibody switching outcomes under varied conditions in vitro and during an immune response in vivo. Thus, the generation of functionally diverse antibody types follows rules of autonomous cellular programming that can be adapted and modeled for the rational control of antibody classes for potential therapeutic benefit., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests Authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Clonal expansion is a core aspect of T cell immunity. However, little is known with respect to the relationship between replicative history and the formation of distinct CD8 + memory T cell subgroups. To address this issue, we developed a genetic-tracing approach, termed the DivisionRecorder, that reports the extent of past proliferation of cell pools in vivo. Using this system to genetically 'record' the replicative history of different CD8 + T cell populations throughout a pathogen-specific immune response, we demonstrate that the central memory T (T CM ) cell pool is marked by a higher number of prior divisions than the effector memory T cell pool, owing to the combination of strong proliferative activity during the acute immune response and selective proliferative activity after pathogen clearance. Furthermore, by combining DivisionRecorder analysis with single-cell transcriptomics and functional experiments, we show that replicative history identifies distinct cell pools within the T CM compartment. Specifically, we demonstrate that lowly divided T CM cells display enriched expression of stem-cell-associated genes, exist in a relatively quiescent state, and are superior in eliciting a proliferative recall response upon activation. These data provide the first evidence that a stem-cell-like memory T cell pool that reconstitutes the CD8 + T cell effector pool upon reinfection is marked by prior quiescence., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc.)

Interpreting forensic DNA signal is arduous since the total intensity is a cacophony of signal from noise, artifact, and allele from an unknown number of contributors (NOC). An alternate to traditional bulk-processing pipelines is a single-cell one, where the sample is collected, and each cell is sequestered resulting in n single-source, single-cell EPGs (scEPG) that must be interpreted using applicable strategies. As with all forensic DNA interpretation strategies, high quality electropherograms are required; thus, to enhance the credibility of single-cell forensics, it is necessary to produce an efficient direct-to-PCR treatment that is compatible with prevailing downstream laboratory processes. We incorporated the semi-automated micro-fluidic DEPArray™ technology into the single-cell laboratory and optimized its implementation by testing the effects of four laboratory treatments on single-cell profiles. We focused on testing effects of phosphate buffer saline (PBS) since it is an important reagent that mitigates cell rupture but is also a PCR inhibitor. Specifically, we explored the effect of decreasing PBS concentrations on five electropherogram-quality metrics from 241 leukocytes: profile drop-out, allele drop-out, allele peak heights, peak height ratios, and scEPG sloping. In an effort to improve reagent use, we also assessed two concentrations of proteinase K. The results indicate that decreasing PBS concentrations to 0.5X or 0.25X improves scEPG quality, while modest modifications to proteinase K concentrations did not significantly impact it. We, therefore, conclude that a lower than recommended proteinase K concentration coupled with a lower than recommended PBS concentration results in enhanced scEPGs within the semi-automated single-cell pipeline., (© 2021 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.)

Lymphocytes are the central actors in adaptive immune responses. When challenged with antigen, a small number of B and T cells have a cognate receptor capable of recognising and responding to the insult. These cells proliferate, building an exponentially growing, differentiating clone army to fight off the threat, before ceasing to divide and dying over a period of weeks, leaving in their wake memory cells that are primed to rapidly respond to any repeated infection. Due to the non-linearity of lymphocyte population dynamics, mathematical models are needed to interrogate data from experimental studies. Due to lack of evidence to the contrary and appealing to arguments based on Occam's Razor, in these models newly born progeny are typically assumed to behave independently of their predecessors. Recent experimental studies, however, challenge that assumption, making clear that there is substantial inheritance of timed fate changes from each cell by its offspring, calling for a revision to the existing mathematical modelling paradigms used for information extraction. By assessing long-term live-cell imaging of stimulated murine B and T cells in vitro , we distilled the key phenomena of these within-family inheritances and used them to develop a new mathematical model, Cyton2, that encapsulates them. We establish the model's consistency with these newly observed fine-grained features. Two natural concerns for any model that includes familial correlations would be that it is overparameterised or computationally inefficient in data fitting, but neither is the case for Cyton2. We demonstrate Cyton2's utility by challenging it with high-throughput flow cytometry data, which confirms the robustness of its parameter estimation as well as its ability to extract biological meaning from complex mixed stimulation experiments. Cyton2, therefore, offers an alternate mathematical model, one that is, more aligned to experimental observation, for drawing inferences on lymphocyte population dynamics., Competing Interests: Author SJD is employed by AstraZeneca. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2021 Cheon, Kan, Prevedello, Oostindie, Dovedi, Hawkins, Marchingo, Heinzel, Duffy and Hodgkin.)

Forensic DNA signal is notoriously challenging to assess, requiring computational tools to support its interpretation. Over-expressions of stutter, allele drop-out, allele drop-in, degradation, differential degradation, and the like, make forensic DNA profiles too complicated to evaluate by manual methods. In response, computational tools that make point estimates on the Number of Contributors (NOC) to a sample have been developed, as have Bayesian methods that evaluate an A Posteriori Probability (APP) distribution on the NOC. In cases where an overly narrow NOC range is assumed, the downstream strength of evidence may be incomplete insofar as the evidence is evaluated with an inadequate set of propositions. In the current paper, we extend previous work on NOCIt, a Bayesian method that determines an APP on the NOC given an electropherogram, by reporting on an implementation where the user can add assumed contributors. NOCIt is a continuous system that incorporates models of peak height (including degradation and differential degradation), forward and reverse stutter, noise, and allelic drop-out, while being cognizant of allele frequencies in a reference population. When conditioned on a known contributor, we found that the mode of the APP distribution can shift to one greater when compared with the circumstance where no known contributor is assumed, and that occurred most often when the assumed contributor was the minor constituent to the mixture. In a development of a result of Slooten and Caliebe (FSI:G, 2018) that, under suitable assumptions, establishes the NOC can be treated as a nuisance variable in the computation of a likelihood ratio between the prosecution and defense hypotheses, we show that this computation must not only use coincident models, but also coincident contextual information. The results reported here, therefore, illustrate the power of modern probabilistic systems to assess full weights-of-evidence, and to provide information on reasonable NOC ranges across multiple contexts., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

High-throughput single-cell methods have uncovered substantial heterogeneity in the pool of hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs), but how much instruction is inherited by offspring from their heterogeneous ancestors remains unanswered. Using a method that enables simultaneous determination of common ancestor, division number, and differentiation status of a large collection of single cells, our data revealed that murine cells that derived from a common ancestor had significant similarities in their division progression and differentiation outcomes. Although each family diversifies, the overall collection of cell types observed is composed of homogeneous families. Heterogeneity between families could be explained, in part, by differences in ancestral expression of cell surface markers. Our analyses demonstrate that fate decisions of cells are largely inherited from ancestor cells, indicating the importance of common ancestor effects. These results may have ramifications for bone marrow transplantation and leukemia, where substantial heterogeneity in HSPC behavior is observed., Competing Interests: TT, GP, GS, NP, CB, CM, IP, KD, LP No competing interests declared, (© 2021, Tak et al.)

Current analysis of forensic DNA stains relies on the probabilistic interpretation of bulk-processed samples that represent mixed profiles consisting of an unknown number of potentially partial representations of each contributor. Single-cell methods, in contrast, offer a solution to the forensic DNA mixture problem by incorporating a step that separates cells before extraction. A forensically relevant single-cell pipeline relies on efficient direct-to-PCR extractions that are compatible with standard downstream forensic reagents. Here we demonstrate the feasibility of implementing single-cell pipelines into the forensic process by exploring four metrics of electropherogram (EPG) signal quality-i.e., allele detection rates, peak heights, peak height ratios, and peak height balance across low- to high-molecular-weight short tandem repeat (STR) markers-obtained with four direct-to-PCR extraction treatments and a common post-PCR laboratory procedure. Each treatment was used to extract DNA from 102 single buccal cells, whereupon the amplification reagents were immediately added to the tube and the DNA was amplified/injected using post-PCR conditions known to elicit a limit of detection (LoD) of one DNA molecule. The results show that most cells, regardless of extraction treatment, rendered EPGs with at least a 50% true positive allele detection rate and that allele drop-out was not cell independent. Statistical tests demonstrated that extraction treatments significantly impacted all metrics of EPG quality, where the Arcturus® PicoPure™ extraction method resulted in the lowest median allele drop-out rate, highest median average peak height, highest median average peak height ratio, and least negative median values of EPG sloping for GlobalFiler™ STR loci amplified at half volume. We, therefore, conclude the feasibility of implementing single-cell pipelines for casework purposes and demonstrate that inferential systems assuming cell independence will not be appropriate in the probabilistic interpretation of a collection of single-cell EPGs.

Severe infections are a major stress on haematopoiesis, where the consequences for haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) have only recently started to emerge. HSC function critically depends on the integrity of complex bone marrow (BM) niches; however, what role the BM microenvironment plays in mediating the effects of infection on HSCs remains an open question. Here, using a murine model of malaria and combining single-cell RNA sequencing, mathematical modelling, transplantation assays and intravital microscopy, we show that haematopoiesis is reprogrammed upon infection, whereby the HSC compartment turns over substantially faster than at steady-state and HSC function is drastically affected. Interferon is found to affect both haematopoietic and mesenchymal BM cells and we specifically identify a dramatic loss of osteoblasts and alterations in endothelial cell function. Osteo-active parathyroid hormone treatment abolishes infection-triggered HSC proliferation and-coupled with reactive oxygen species quenching-enables partial rescuing of HSC function.

Forensic DNA signal is notoriously challenging to interpret and requires the implementation of computational tools that support its interpretation. While data from high-copy, low-contributor samples result in electropherogram signal that is readily interpreted by probabilistic methods, electropherogram signal from forensic stains is often garnered from low-copy, high-contributor-number samples and is frequently obfuscated by allele sharing, allele drop-out, stutter and noise. Since forensic DNA profiles are too complicated to quantitatively assess by manual methods, continuous, probabilistic frameworks that draw inferences on the Number of Contributors (NOC) and compute the Likelihood Ratio (LR) given the prosecution's and defense's hypotheses have been developed. In the current paper, we validate a new version of the NOCIt inference platform that determines an A Posteriori Probability (APP) distribution of the number of contributors given an electropherogram. NOCIt is a continuous inference system that incorporates models of peak height (including degradation and differential degradation), forward and reverse stutter, noise and allelic drop-out while taking into account allele frequencies in a reference population. We established the algorithm's performance by conducting tests on samples that were representative of types often encountered in practice. In total, we tested NOCIt's performance on 815 degraded, UV-damaged, inhibited, differentially degraded, or uncompromised DNA mixture samples containing up to 5 contributors. We found that the model makes accurate, repeatable and reliable inferences about the NOCs and significantly outperformed methods that rely on signal filtering. By leveraging recent theoretical results of Slooten and Caliebe (FSI:G, 2018) that, under suitable assumptions, establish the NOC can be treated as a nuisance variable, we demonstrated that when NOCIt's APP is used in conjunction with a downstream likelihood ratio (LR) inference system that employs the same probabilistic model, a full evaluation across multiple contributor numbers is rendered. This work, therefore, illustrates the power of modern probabilistic systems to report holistic and interpretable weights-of-evidence to the trier-of-fact without assigning a specified number of contributors or filtering signal., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Motivated by a recently proposed design for a DNA coded randomised algorithm that enables inference of the average generation of a collection of cells descendent from a common progenitor, here we establish strong convergence properties for the average generation of a super-critical Bellman-Harris process. We further extend those results to a two-type Bellman-Harris process where one type can give rise to the other, but not vice versa. These results further affirm the estimation method's potential utility by establishing its long run accuracy on individual sample-paths, and significantly expanding its remit to encompass cellular development that gives rise to differentiated offspring with distinct population dynamics.

Continuous mixture interpretation methods that employ probabilistic genotyping to compute the Likelihood Ratio (LR) utilize more information than threshold-based systems. The continuous interpretation schemes described in the literature, however, do not all use the same underlying probabilistic model and standards outlining which probabilistic models may or may not be implemented into casework do not exist; thus, it is the individual forensic laboratory or expert that decides which model and corresponding software program to implement. For countries, such as the United States, with an adversarial legal system, one can envision a scenario where two probabilistic models are used to present the weight of evidence, and two LRs are presented by two experts. Conversely, if no independent review of the evidence is requested, one expert using one model may present one LR as there is no standard or guideline requiring the uncertainty in the LR estimate be presented. The choice of model determines the underlying probability calculation, and changes to it can result in non-negligible differences in the reported LR or corresponding verbal categorization presented to the trier-of-fact. In this paper, we study the impact of model differences on the LR and on the corresponding verbal expression computed using four variants of a continuous mixture interpretation method. The four models were tested five times each on 101, 1-, 2- and 3-person experimental samples with known contributors. For each sample, LRs were computed using the known contributor as the person of interest. In all four models, intra-model variability increased with an increase in the number of contributors and with a decrease in the contributor's template mass. Inter-model variability in the associated verbal expression of the LR was observed in 32 of the 195 LRs used for comparison. Moreover, in 11 of these profiles there was a change from LR > 1 to LR < 1. These results indicate that modifications to existing continuous models do have the potential to significantly impact the final statistic, justifying the continuation of broad-based, large-scale, independent studies to quantify the limits of reliability and variability of existing forensically relevant systems., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

In response to external stimuli, naïve B cells proliferate and take on a range of fates important for immunity. How their fate is determined is a topic of much recent research, with candidates including asymmetric cell division, lineage priming, stochastic assignment, and microenvironment instruction. Here we manipulate the generation of plasmablasts from B lymphocytes in vitro by varying CD40 stimulation strength to determine its influence on potential sources of fate control. Using long-term live cell imaging, we directly measure times to differentiate, divide, and die of hundreds of pairs of sibling cells. These data reveal that while the allocation of fates is significantly altered by signal strength, the proportion of siblings identified with asymmetric fates is unchanged. In contrast, we find that plasmablast generation is enhanced by slowing times to divide, which is consistent with a hypothesis of competing timed stochastic fate outcomes. We conclude that this mechanistically simple source of alternative fate regulation is important, and that useful quantitative models of signal integration can be developed based on its principles.

The generation of cellular heterogeneity is an essential feature of immune responses. Understanding the heritability and asymmetry of phenotypic changes throughout this process requires determination of clonal-level contributions to fate selection. Evaluating intraclonal and interclonal heterogeneity and the influence of distinct fate determinants in large numbers of cell lineages, however, is usually laborious, requiring familial tracing and fate mapping. In this study, we introduce a novel, accessible, high-throughput method for measuring familial fate changes with accompanying statistical tools for testing hypotheses. The method combines multiplexing of division tracking dyes with detection of phenotypic markers to reveal clonal lineage properties. We illustrate the method by studying in vitro-activated mouse CD8 + T cell cultures, reporting division and phenotypic changes at the level of families. This approach has broad utility as it is flexible and adaptable to many cell types and to modifications of in vitro, and potentially in vivo, fate monitoring systems., (Copyright © 2018 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.)

Bone marrow vascular niches sustain hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) and are drastically remodeled in leukemia to support pathological functions. Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) cells produce angiogenic factors, which likely contribute to this remodeling, but anti-angiogenic therapies do not improve AML patient outcomes. Using intravital microscopy, we found that AML progression leads to differential remodeling of vasculature in central and endosteal bone marrow regions. Endosteal AML cells produce pro-inflammatory and anti-angiogenic cytokines and gradually degrade endosteal endothelium, stromal cells, and osteoblastic cells, whereas central marrow remains vascularized and splenic vascular niches expand. Remodeled endosteal regions have reduced capacity to support non-leukemic HSCs, correlating with loss of normal hematopoiesis. Preserving endosteal endothelium with the small molecule deferoxamine or a genetic approach rescues HSCs loss, promotes chemotherapeutic efficacy, and enhances survival. These findings suggest that preventing degradation of the endosteal vasculature may improve current paradigms for treating AML., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

DNA-based human identity testing is conducted by comparison of PCR-amplified polymorphic Short Tandem Repeat (STR) motifs from a known source with the STR profiles obtained from uncertain sources. Samples such as those found at crime scenes often result in signal that is a composite of incomplete STR profiles from an unknown number of unknown contributors, making interpretation an arduous task. To facilitate advancement in STR interpretation challenges we provide over 25,000 multiplex STR profiles produced from one to five known individuals at target levels ranging from one to 160 copies of DNA. The data, generated under 144 laboratory conditions, are classified by total copy number and contributor proportions. For the 70% of samples that were synthetically compromised, we report the level of DNA damage using quantitative and end-point PCR. In addition, we characterize the complexity of the signal by exploring the number of detected alleles in each profile., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Samples containing low-copy numbers of DNA are routinely encountered in casework. The signal acquired from these sample types can be difficult to interpret as they do not always contain all of the genotypic information from each contributor, where the loss of genetic information is associated with sampling and detection effects. The present work focuses on developing a validation scheme to aid in mitigating the effects of the latter. We establish a scheme designed to simultaneously improve signal resolution and detection rates without costly large-scale experimental validation studies by applying a combined simulation and experimental based approach. Specifically, we parameterize an in silico DNA pipeline with experimental data acquired from the laboratory and use this to evaluate multifarious scenarios in a cost-effective manner. Metrics such as signal 1copy -to-noise resolution, false positive and false negative signal detection rates are used to select tenable laboratory parameters that result in high-fidelity signal in the single-copy regime. We demonstrate that the metrics acquired from simulation are consistent with experimental data obtained from two capillary electrophoresis platforms and various injection parameters. Once good resolution is obtained, analytical thresholds can be determined using detection error tradeoff analysis, if necessary. Decreasing the limit of detection of the forensic process to one copy of DNA is a powerful mechanism by which to increase the information content on minor components of a mixture, which is particularly important for probabilistic system inference. If the forensic pipeline is engineered such that high-fidelity electropherogram signal is obtained, then the likelihood ratio (LR) of a true contributor increases and the probability that the LR of a randomly chosen person is greater than one decreases. This is, potentially, the first step towards standardization of the analytical pipeline across operational laboratories., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Short tandem repeat (STR) profiling from DNA samples has long been the bedrock of human identification. The laboratory process is composed of multiple procedures that include quantification, sample dilution, PCR, electrophoresis, and fragment analysis. The end product is a short tandem repeat electropherogram comprised of signal from allele, artifacts, and instrument noise. In order to optimize or alter laboratory protocols, a large number of validation samples must be created at significant expense. As a tool to support that process and to enable the exploration of complex scenarios without costly sample creation, a mechanistic stochastic model that incorporates each of the aforementioned processing features is described herein. The model allows rapid in silico simulation of electropherograms from multicontributor samples and enables detailed investigations of involved scenarios. An implementation of the model that is parameterized by extensive laboratory data is publically available. To illustrate its utility, the model was employed in order to evaluate the effects of sample dilutions, injection time, and cycle number on peak height, and the nature of stutter ratios at low template. We verify the model's findings by comparison with experimentally generated data., (© 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.)

The dynamic process by which self-renewing stem cells and their offspring proliferate and differentiate to create the erythroid, myeloid and lymphoid lineages of the blood system has long since been an important topic of study. A range of recent single cell and family tracing methodologies such as massively parallel single-cell RNA-sequencing, mass cytometry, integration site barcoding, cellular barcoding and transposon barcoding are enabling unprecedented analysis, dissection and re-evaluation of the haematopoietic tree. In addition to the substantial experimental advances, these new techniques have required significant theoretical development in order to make biological deductions from their data. Here, we review these approaches from both an experimental and inferential point of view, considering their discoveries to date, their capabilities, limitations and opportunities for further development., (© 2016 Federation of European Biochemical Societies.)

For proliferating cells subject to both division and death, how can one estimate the average generation number of the living population without continuous observation or a division-diluting dye? In this paper we provide a method for cell systems such that at each division there is an unlikely, heritable one-way label change that has no impact other than to serve as a distinguishing marker. If the probability of label change per cell generation can be determined and the proportion of labeled cells at a given time point can be measured, we establish that the average generation number of living cells can be estimated. Crucially, the estimator does not depend on knowledge of the statistics of cell cycle, death rates or total cell numbers. We explore the estimator's features through comparison with physiologically parameterized stochastic simulations and extrapolations from published data, using it to suggest new experimental designs.

Background: Cellular barcoding is a recently developed biotechnology tool that enables the familial identification of progeny of individual cells in vivo. In immunology, it has been used to track the burst-sizes of multiple distinct responding T cells over several adaptive immune responses. In the study of hematopoiesis, it revealed fate heterogeneity amongst phenotypically identical multipotent cells. Most existing approaches rely on ex vivo viral transduction of cells with barcodes followed by adoptive transfer into an animal, which works well for some systems, but precludes barcoding cells in their native environment such as those inside solid tissues., Results: With a view to overcoming this limitation, we propose a new design for a genetic barcoding construct based on the Cre Lox system that induces randomly created stable barcodes in cells in situ by exploiting inherent sequence distance constraints during site-specific recombination. We identify the cassette whose provably maximal code diversity is several orders of magnitude higher than what is attainable with previously considered Cre Lox barcoding approaches, exceeding the number of lymphocytes or hematopoietic progenitor cells in mice., Conclusions: Its high diversity and in situ applicability, make the proposed Cre Lox based tagging system suitable for whole tissue or even whole animal barcoding. Moreover, it can be built using established technology.

Development of mature blood cell progenies from hematopoietic stem cells involves the transition through lineage-restricted progenitors. The first branching point along this developmental process is thought to separate the erythro-myeloid and lymphoid lineage fate by yielding two intermediate progenitors, the common myeloid and the common lymphoid progenitors (CMPs and CLPs). Here, we use single-cell lineage tracing to demonstrate that so-called CMPs are highly heterogeneous with respect to cellular output, with most individual CMPs yielding either only erythrocytes or only myeloid cells after transplantation. Furthermore, based on the labeling of earlier progenitors, we show that the divergence between the myeloid and erythroid lineage develops within multipotent progenitors (MPP). These data provide evidence for a model of hematopoietic branching in which multiple distinct lineage commitments occur in parallel within the MPP pool., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

There are three dominant contributing factors that distort short tandem repeat profile measurements, two of which, stutter and variations in the allelic peak heights, have been described extensively. Here we characterise the remaining component, baseline noise. A probabilistic characterisation of the non-allelic noise peaks is not only inherently useful for statistical inference but is also significant for establishing a detection threshold. We do this by analysing the data from 643 single person profiles for the Identifiler Plus kit and 303 for the PowerPlex 16 HS kit. This investigation reveals that although the dye colour is a significant factor, it is not sufficient to have a per-dye colour description of the noise. Furthermore, we show that at a per-locus basis, out of the Gaussian, log-normal, and gamma distribution classes, baseline noise is best described by log-normal distributions and provide a methodology for setting an analytical threshold based on that deduction. In the PowerPlex 16 HS kit, we observe evidence of significant stutter at two repeat units shorter than the allelic peak, which has implications for the definition of baseline noise and signal interpretation. In general, the DNA input mass has an influence on the noise distribution. Thus, it is advisable to study noise and, consequently, to infer quantities like the analytical threshold from data with a DNA input mass comparable to the DNA input mass of the samples to be analysed., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

T cell responses are initiated by antigen and promoted by a range of costimulatory signals. Understanding how T cells integrate alternative signal combinations and make decisions affecting immune response strength or tolerance poses a considerable theoretical challenge. Here, we report that T cell receptor (TCR) and costimulatory signals imprint an early, cell-intrinsic, division fate, whereby cells effectively count through generations before returning automatically to a quiescent state. This autonomous program can be extended by cytokines. Signals from the TCR, costimulatory receptors, and cytokines add together using a linear division calculus, allowing the strength of a T cell response to be predicted from the sum of the underlying signal components. These data resolve a long-standing costimulation paradox and provide a quantitative paradigm for therapeutically manipulating immune response strength., (Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Cellular barcoding and other single-cell lineage-tracing strategies form experimental methodologies for analysis of in vivo cell fate that have been instrumental in several significant recent discoveries. Due to the highly nonlinear nature of proliferation and differentiation, interrogation of the resulting data for evaluation of potential lineage pathways requires a new quantitative framework complete with appropriate statistical tests. Here, we develop such a framework, illustrating its utility by analyzing data from barcoded multipotent cells of the blood system. This application demonstrates that the data require additional paths beyond those found in the classical model, which leads us to propose that hematopoietic differentiation follows a loss of potential mechanism and to suggest further experiments to test this deduction. Our quantitative framework can evaluate the compatibility of lineage trees with barcoded data from any proliferating and differentiating cell system., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

During an adaptive immune response, lymphocytes proliferate for five to 20 generations, differentiating to take on effector functions, before cessation and cell death become dominant. Recent experimental methodologies enable direct observation of individual lymphocytes and the times at which they adopt fates. Data from these experiments reveal diversity in fate selection, heterogeneity and involved correlation structures in times to fate, as well as considerable familial correlations. Despite the significant complexity, these data are consistent with the simple hypothesis that each cell possesses autonomous processes, subject to temporal competition, leading to each fate. This article addresses the evidence for this hypothesis, its hallmarks, and, should it be an appropriate description of a cell system, its ramifications for manipulation., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

In response to stimulation, B lymphocytes pursue a large number of distinct fates important for immune regulation. Whether each cell's fate is determined by external direction, internal stochastic processes, or directed asymmetric division is unknown. Measurement of times to isotype switch, to develop into a plasmablast, and to divide or to die for thousands of cells indicated that each fate is pursued autonomously and stochastically. As a consequence of competition between these processes, censorship of alternative outcomes predicts intricate correlations that are observed in the data. Stochastic competition can explain how the allocation of a proportion of B cells to each cell fate is achieved. The B cell may exemplify how other complex cell differentiation systems are controlled.

During the adaptive immune response, lymphocyte populations undergo a characteristic three-phase process: expansion through a series of cell divisions; cessation of expansion; and, finally, most of the accumulated lymphocytes die by apoptosis. The data used, thus far, to inform understanding of these processes, both in vitro and in vivo, are taken from flow cytometry experiments. One significant drawback of flow cytometry is that individual cells cannot be tracked, so that it is not possible to investigate interdependencies in the fate of cells within a family tree. This deficit in experimental information has recently been overcome by Hawkins et al. (Hawkins et al. 2009 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 13 457-13 462 (doi:10.1073/pnas.0905629106)), who reported on time-lapse microscopy experiments in which B-cells were stimulated through the TLR-9 receptor. Cells stimulated in this way do not aggregate, so that data regarding family trees can be recorded. In this article, we further investigate the Hawkins et al. data. Our conclusions are striking: in order to explain the familial correlation structure in division times, death times and propensity to divide, a minimum of two distinct heritable factors are necessary. As the data show that two distinct factors are necessary, we develop a stochastic model that has two heritable factors and demonstrate that it can reproduce the key features of the data. This model shows that two heritable factors are sufficient. These deductions have a clear impact upon biological understanding of the adaptive immune response. They also necessitate changes to the fundamental premises behind the tools developed by statisticians to draw deductions from flow cytometry data. Finally, they affect the mathematical modelling paradigms that are used to study these systems, as these are widely developed based on assumptions of cellular independence that are not accurate.

During an adaptive immune response, lymphocytes proliferate for five to twenty-five cell divisions, then stop and die over a period of weeks. Based on extensive flow cytometry data, Hawkins et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:5032-5037, 2007) introduced a cell-level stochastic model of lymphocyte population dynamics, called the Cyton Model, that accurately captures mean lymphocyte population size as a function of time. In Subramanian et al. (J Math Biol 56(6):861-892, 2008), we performed a branching process analysis of the Cyton Model and deduced from parameterizations for in vitro and in vivo data that the immune response is predictable despite each cell's fate being highly variable. One drawback of flow cytometry data is that individual cells cannot be tracked, so that it is not possible to investigate dependencies in the fate of cells within family trees. In the absence of this information, while the Cyton Model abandons one of the usual assumptions of branching processes (the independence of lifetime and progeny number), it adopts another of the standard branching processes hypotheses: that the fates of progeny are stochastically independent. However, new experimental observations of lymphocytes show that the fates of cells in the same family tree are not stochastically independent. Hawkins et al. (2008, submitted) report on ciné lapse photography experiments where every founding cell's family tree is recorded for a system of proliferating lymphocytes responding to a mitogenic stimulus. Data from these experiments demonstrate that the death-or-division fates of collaterally consanguineous cells (those in the same generation within a founding cell's family tree) are strongly correlated, while there is little correlation between cells of distinct generations and between cells in distinct family trees. As this finding contrasts with one of the assumptions of the Cyton Model, in this paper we introduce three variants of the Cyton Model with increasing levels of collaterally consanguineous correlation structure to incorporate these new found dependencies. We investigate their impact on the predicted expected variability of cell population size. Mathematically we conclude that while the introduction of correlation structure leaves the mean population size unchanged from the Cyton Model, the variance of the population size distribution is typically larger. Biologically, through comparison of model predictions for Cyton Model parameterizations determined by in vitro and in vivo experiments, we deduce that if collaterally consanguineous correlation extends beyond cousins, then the immune response is less predictable than would be concluded from the original Cyton Model. That is, some of the variability seen in data that we previously attributed to experimental error could be due to intrinsic variability in the cell population size dynamics.

During an adaptive immune response, lymphocytes proliferate for 5-20 cell divisions, then stop and die over a period of weeks. The cyton model for regulation of lymphocyte proliferation and survival was introduced by Hawkins et al. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 104, 5032-5037, 2007) to provide a framework for understanding this response and its regulation. The model assumes stochastic values for division and survival times for each cell in a responding population. Experimental evidence indicates that the choice of times is drawn from a skewed distribution such as the lognormal, with the fate of individual cells being potentially highly variable. For this reason we calculate the higher moments of the model so that the expected variability can be determined. To do this we formulate a new analytic framework for the cyton model by introducing a generalization to the Bellman-Harris branching process. We use this framework to introduce two distinct approaches to predicting variability in the immune response to a mitogenic signal. The first method enables explicit calculations for certain distributions and qualitatively exhibits the full range of observed immune responses. The second approach does not facilitate analytic solutions, but allows simple numerical schemes for distributions for which there is little prospect of analytic formulae. We compare the predictions derived from the second method to experimentally observed lymphocyte population sizes from in vivo and in vitro experiments. The model predictions for both data sets are remarkably accurate. The important biological conclusion is that there is limited variation around the expected value of the population size irrespective of whether the response is mediated by small numbers of cells undergoing many divisions or for many cells pursuing a small number of divisions. Therefore, we conclude the immune response is robust and predictable despite the potential for great variability in the experience of each individual cell.