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Objectives: This study examines clinically confirmed long-COVID symptoms and diagnosis among individuals with COVID in England, aiming to understand prevalence and associated risk factors using electronic health records. To further understand long COVID, the study also explored differences in risks and symptom profiles in three subgroups: hospitalised, non-hospitalised, and untreated COVID cases., Methods: A population-based longitudinal cohort study was conducted using data from 1,554,040 individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection via Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Descriptive statistics explored the prevalence of long COVID symptoms 12 weeks post-infection, and Cox regression models analysed the associated risk factors. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the impact of right-censoring data., Results: During an average 400-day follow-up, 7.4% of individuals with COVID had at least one long-COVID symptom after acute phase, yet only 0.5% had long-COVID diagnostic codes. The most common long-COVID symptoms included cough (17.7%), back pain (15.2%), stomach-ache (11.2%), headache (11.1%), and sore throat (10.0%). The same trend was observed in all three subgroups. Risk factors associated with long-COVID symptoms were female sex, non-white ethnicity, obesity, and pre-existing medical conditions like anxiety, depression, type II diabetes, and somatic symptom disorders., Conclusions: This study is the first to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of clinically confirmed long-COVID in the general population. The findings could help clinicians identify higher risk individuals for timely intervention and allow decision-makers to more efficiently allocate resources for managing long-COVID., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Prof. Christina Van Der Feltz-Cornelis received travel and accommodation in UK for lectures from The Lloyd Register Foundation and honoraries from Janssen UK and royalties for books on psychiatry. Prof. Christina Van Der Feltz-Cornelis has also received grants from the National Institute for Health Research, British Medical Association, European Union’s Horizon 2020 research programme and the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development. Prof. Amitava Banerjee has received grants and/or fees from the National Institute for Health Research, British Medical Association, UK Research and Innovation, European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and EFPIA, and AstraZeneca. Dr. Michael G Crooks has received grants, fees and/or non-financial support from the National Institute for Health and Care Research, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Chiesi, GlaxoSmithKline, Philips, and Pfizer. Prof. Kamlesh Khunti was chair of the ethnicity subgroup of the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and has acted as a consultant, speaker or received grants for investigator-initiated studies from Astra Zeneca and Pfizer. K.K. (chair) and A.B. are members of the National Long Covid Research Group that informs the chief medical officer for England. All other authors have no conflicts of interest to report., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To explore the acceptability and feasibility of detection of atrial fibrillation (AF) by emergency medical services (EMS) and identify potential barriers and facilitators to implementing a formal pathway to facilitate follow-up in primary care, which could reduce the risk of AF-related stroke., Design: Qualitative study using focus groups and one-to-one interviews guided by a semistructured topic guide., Setting: North East England., Participants: Focus groups with 18 members of the public and one-to-one online interviews with 11 healthcare and service providers (six paramedics and five experts representing cardiology, general practice (GP), public health, research, policy and commissioning)., Results: All participant groups were supportive of a role of EMS in identifying AF as part of routine assessment and formalising the response to AF detection. However, this should not create delays for EMS since rate-controlled AF is non-urgent and alternative community mechanisms exist to manage it. Public participants were concerned about communication of the AF diagnosis and whether this should be 'on scene' or in a subsequent GP appointment. Paramedics reported frequent incidental identification of AF, but it is not always clear 'on scene' that this is a new diagnosis, and there is variation in practice regarding whether (and how) this is communicated to the GP. Paramedics also focused on ensuring the safety of non-conveyed patients and a perceived need for an 'active' reporting process, so that a finding of AF was actioned. Field experts felt that a formal pathway would be useful and favoured a simple intervention without adding to time pressures unnecessarily., Conclusions: There is support for the development of a formal pathway to ensure follow-up for people with AF that is incidentally detected by EMS. This has the potential to improve anticoagulation rates and reduce the risk of stroke., Competing Interests: Competing interests: CW has previously held an unrestricted research grant from Bristol-Myers-Squibb, unrelated to this work. The other coauthors have nothing to declare., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: To explore whether: (i) people with severe mental illness (SMI) experience worse oral health than the general population, and (ii) the risk factors for poor oral health in people with SMI., Methods: Cross-sectional data were extracted from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2016), including on self-rated oral health, oral pain, tooth loss, periodontitis stage, and number of decayed, missing, and filled teeth. Candidate risk factors for poor oral health included demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, physical health comorbidities, and dental hygiene behaviours. Ordinal logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial models were used to explore predictors of oral health outcomes., Results: There were 53,348 cases included in the analysis, including 718 people with SMI. In the fully adjusted model, people with SMI were more likely to suffer from tooth loss (OR 1.60, 95% CI: 1.34-1.92). In people with SMI, risk factors identified for poor oral health outcomes were older age, white ethnicity, lower income, smoking history, and diabetes. Engaging in physical activity and daily use of dental floss were associated with better oral health outcomes., Conclusions: People with SMI experience higher rates of tooth loss than the general population, and certain subgroups are particularly at risk. Performing regular physical exercise and flossing may lower the risk of poor oral health, while smoking and diabetes may increase the risk. These findings suggest opportunities for targeted prevention and early intervention strategies to mitigate adverse oral health outcomes in people with SMI.

Background: Reductions in local government funding implemented in 2010 due to austerity policies have been associated with worsening socioeconomic inequalities in mortality. Less is known about the relationship of these reductions with healthcare inequalities; therefore, we investigated whether areas with greater reductions in local government funding had greater increases in socioeconomic inequalities in emergency admissions., Methods: We examined inequalities between English local authority districts (LADs) using a fixed-effects linear regression to estimate the association between LAD expenditure reductions, their level of deprivation using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) and average rates of (all and avoidable) emergency admissions for the years 2010-2017. We also examined changes in inequalities in emergency admissions using the Absolute Gradient Index (AGI), which is the modelled gap between the most and least deprived neighbourhoods in an area., Results: LADs within the most deprived IMD quintile had larger pounds per capita expenditure reductions, higher rates of all and avoidable emergency admissions, and greater between-neighbourhood inequalities in admissions. However, expenditure reductions were only associated with increasing average rates of all and avoidable emergency admissions and inequalities between neighbourhoods in local authorities in England's three least deprived IMD quintiles. For a LAD in the least deprived IMD quintile, a yearly reduction of £100 per capita in total expenditure was associated with a yearly increase of 47 (95% CI 22 to 73) avoidable admissions, 142 (95% CI 70 to 213) all-cause emergency admissions and a yearly increase in inequalities between neighbourhoods of 48 (95% CI 14 to 81) avoidable and 140 (95% CI 60 to 220) all-cause emergency admissions. In 2017, a LAD average population was ~170 000., Conclusion: Austerity policies implemented in 2010 impacted less deprived local authorities, where emergency admissions and inequalities between neighbourhoods increased, while in the most deprived areas, emergency admissions were unchanged, remaining high and persistent., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: People with severe mental illness (SMI), such as schizophrenia, have higher rates of type 2 diabetes and worse outcomes, compared to those without SMI and it is not known whether diabetes self-management interventions are effective for people who have both conditions. Research in this area has been impeded by a lack of consensus on which outcomes to prioritise in people with co-existing SMI and diabetes., Aims: To develop a core outcome set (COS) for use in effectiveness trials of diabetes self-management interventions in adults with both type 2 diabetes and SMI., Methods: The COS was developed in three stages: (i) identification of outcomes from systematic literature review of intervention studies, followed by multi-stakeholder and service user workshops; (ii) rating of outcomes in a two-round online Delphi survey; (iii) agreement of final 'core' outcomes through a stakeholder consensus workshop., Results: Seven outcomes were selected: glucose control, blood pressure, body composition (body weight, BMI, body fat), health-related quality of life, diabetes self-management, diabetes-related distress and medication adherence., Conclusions: This COS is recommended for future trials of effectiveness of diabetes self-management interventions for people with SMI and type 2 diabetes. Its use will ensure trials capture important outcomes and reduce heterogeneity so findings can be readily synthesised to inform practice and policy., (© 2024 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.)

Objectives: To test the hypotheses that: (1) Prevalence of periodontal disease would be higher in people with a history of psychosis when compared to the general population and (2) Demographic, life-style related factors and co-morbid medical conditions would predict periodontal disease in people experiencing psychosis., Methods: The authors performed cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the UK Biobank study (2007-2010), identifying cases with psychosis using clinical diagnosis, antipsychotic medication, and self-report. Demographic (age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status), lifestyle-related(BMI, blood pressure, smoking and alcohol intake, physical activity) and physical co-morbidities (cancer, cardiovascular, respiratory, inflammatory disease and metabolic conditions) were included as potential risk factors for periodontal disease among people with a history of psychosis using logistic regression analyses. The analysis sample included 502,505 participants., Results: Risk of periodontal disease was higher in people with psychosis, regardless of how cases were identified. Patients with a clinical diagnosis had the highest proportion of periodontal disease compared to the general population (21.3% vs. 14.8%, prevalence ratio 1.40, 95% CI: 1.26-1.56). Older and female cases were more likely to experience periodontal disease. Lifestyle factors (smoking) and comorbidities (cardiovascular, cancer or respiratory disease) were associated with periodontal disease among people with a history of psychosis., Conclusions: The findings suggest that periodontal disease is more common in people with a history of psychosis, compared to the general population. Prevention and early diagnosis of periodontal disease should be a priority for oral health promotion programmes, which should also address modifiable risk factors like smoking which also contribute to co-morbid systemic disease., (© 2022 The Authors. Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) combines mortality risk and multidimensional health-related quality of life (HRQoL) information to measure healthy life expectancy in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). This paper estimates the relative importance of individual quality of life dimensions in explaining inequalities in QALE., Methods: We combined EQ-5D-5L data from the Health Survey for England for 2017 and 2018 (N = 14,412) with full population mortality data from the Office for National Statistics to calculate QALE by age, sex and deprivation quintile. The effect of HRQoL dimensions on the socioeconomic gradient in QALE was decomposed using an iterative imputation approach, in which inequalities associated with socioeconomic status in each domain were removed by imputing the response distribution of the richest quintile for all participants. Sampling uncertainty in the HRQoL data was evaluated using bootstrapping., Results: People in the least deprived fifth of neighbourhoods in England can expect to live 7.0 years longer and experience 11.1 more QALYs than those in the most deprived fifth. Inequalities in HRQoL accounted for 28.0% and 45.7% of QALE inequalities for males and females, respectively. Pain/discomfort, anxiety/depression and mobility were the most influential HRQoL domains., Discussion: Our results identify the extent of inequalities associated with socioeconomic status in lifetime health and the relative importance of inequalities by mortality and HRQoL. The contributions of the individual dimensions of HRQoL towards lifetime inequalities vary substantially by sex. Our findings can help to identify the types of interventions most likely to alleviate health inequalities, which may be different for males and females., (© 2023. Crown.)

Objectives: Antiepileptic and antiarrhythmic drugs inhibit voltage-gated sodium (Na + ) channels (VGSCs), and preclinical studies show that these medications reduce tumour growth, invasion and metastasis. We investigated the association between VGSC inhibitor use and survival in patients with breast, bowel and prostate cancer., Design: Retrospective cohort study., Setting: Individual electronic primary healthcare records extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink., Participants: Records for 132 996 patients with a diagnosis of breast, bowel or prostate cancer., Outcome Measures: Adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression was used to analyse cancer-specific survival associated with exposure to VGSC inhibitors. Exposure to non-VGSC-inhibiting antiepileptic medication and other non-VGSC blockers were also considered. Drug exposure was treated as a time-varying covariate to account for immortal time bias., Results: During 1 002 225 person-years of follow-up, there were 42 037 cancer-specific deaths. 53 724 (40.4%) patients with cancer had at least one prescription for a VGSC inhibitor of interest. Increased risk of cancer-specific mortality was associated with exposure to this group of drugs (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.56 to 1.63, p<0.001). This applied to VGSC-inhibiting tricyclic antidepressants (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.50 to 1.65, p<0.001), local anaesthetics (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.55, p<0.001) and anticonvulsants (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.34 to 1.48, p<0.001) and persisted in sensitivity analyses. In contrast, exposure to VGSC-inhibiting class 1c and 1d antiarrhythmics was associated with significantly improved cancer-specific survival (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.88, p<0.001 and HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.33 to 0.88, p=0.01, respectively)., Conclusions: Association between VGSC inhibitor use and mortality in patients with cancer varies according to indication. Exposure to VGSC-inhibiting antiarrhythmics, but not anticonvulsants, supports findings from preclinical data, with improved survival. However, additional confounding factors may underlie these associations, highlighting the need for further study., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in England has implemented severity-of-disease modifiers that give greater weight to health benefits accruing to patients who experience a larger shortfall in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) under current standard of care than healthy individuals. This requires an estimate of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) of the general population based on age and sex. Previous QALE population norms are based on nearly 30-year-old assessments of health-related quality of life in the general population. This study provides updated QALE estimates for the English population based on age and sex., Methods: 5-level version of EQ-5D data for 14 412 participants from the Health Survey for England (waves 2017 and 2018) were pooled, and health-related quality of life population norms were calculated. These norms were combined with official life tables from the Office for National Statistics for 2017 to 2019 using the Sullivan method to derive QALE estimates based on age and sex. Values were discounted using 0%, 1.5%, and 3.5% discount rates., Results: QALE at birth is 68.24 QALYs for men and 68.21 QALYs for women. These values are significantly lower than previously published QALE population norms based on the older 3-level version of EQ-5D data., Conclusion: This study provides new QALE population norms for England that serve to establish absolute and relative QALY shortfalls for the purpose of health technology assessments., (Copyright © 2022 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

A largely unexplored part of the financial incentive for physicians to participate in preventive care is the degree to which they are the residual claimant from any resulting cost savings. We examine the impact of two preventive activities for people with serious mental illness (care plans and annual reviews of physical health) by English primary care practices on costs in these practices and in secondary care. Using panel two-part models to analyze patient-level data linked across primary and secondary care, we find that these preventive activities in the previous year are associated with cost reductions in the current quarter both in primary and secondary care. We estimate that there are large beneficial externalities for which the primary care physician is not the residual claimant: the cost savings in secondary care are 4.7 times larger than the cost savings in primary care. These activities are incentivized in the English National Health Service but the total financial incentives for primary care physicians to participate were considerably smaller than the total cost savings produced. This suggests that changes to the design of incentives to increase the marginal reward for conducting these preventive activities among patients with serious mental illness could have further increased welfare., (© 2022 The Authors. Health Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objectives: To examine the effect of general practitioners (GPs) working in or alongside the emergency department (GPED) on patient outcomes and experience, and the associated impacts of implementation on the workforce., Design: Mixed-methods study: interviews with service leaders and NHS managers; in-depth case studies (n=10) and retrospective observational analysis of routinely collected national data. We used normalisation process theory to map our findings to the theory's four main constructs of coherence, cognitive participation, collective action and reflexive monitoring., Setting and Participants: Data were collected from 64 EDs in England. Case site data included: non-participant observation of 142 clinical encounters; 467 semistructured interviews with policy-makers, service leaders, clinical staff, patients and carers. Retrospective observational analysis used routinely collected Hospital Episode Statistics alongside information on GPED service hours from 40 hospitals for which complete data were available., Results: There was disagreement at individual, stakeholder and organisational levels regarding the purpose and potential impact of GPED (coherence). Participants criticised policy development and implementation, and staff engagement was hindered by tensions between ED and GP staff (cognitive participation). Patient 'streaming' processes, staffing and resource constraints influenced whether GPED became embedded in routine practice. Concerns that GPED may increase ED attendance influenced staff views. Our quantitative analysis showed no detectable impact on attendance (collective action). Stakeholders disagreed whether GPED was successful, due to variations in GPED model, site-specific patient mix and governance arrangements. Following statistical adjustment for multiple testing, we found no impact on: ED reattendances within 7 days, patients discharged within 4 hours of arrival, patients leaving the ED without being seen; inpatient admissions; non-urgent ED attendances and 30-day mortality (reflexive monitoring)., Conclusions: We found a high degree of variability between hospital sites, but no overall evidence that GPED increases the efficient operation of EDs or improves clinical outcomes, patient or staff experience., Trial Registration Number: ISCRTN5178022., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Context: Polypharmacy is often appropriate for children with life-limiting conditions but is associated with an increase in hospitalizations and inappropriate prescribing, and can affect the quality of life of children and their families as they manage complex medication schedules. Despite this, little is known about polypharmacy in this population., Objective: To describe the prevalence and patterns of polypharmacy in children with a life-limiting condition in a nationally representative cohort in England., Methods: Observational study of children (age 0-19 years) with a life-limiting condition in a national database from 2000 to 2015. Common definitions of polypharmacy were used to determine polypharmacy prevalence in each year based on unique medications and regular medications. Hierarchical regression analyses were used to explore factors associated with polypharmacy., Results: Data on 15,829 individuals were included. Each year 27%-39% of children were prescribed ≥5 unique medications and 8%-12% were prescribed ≥10. Children with a respiratory (OR 7.6, 95%CI 6.4-9.0), neurological (OR 2.8, 95%CI 2.4-3.2), or metabolic (OR 2.2, 95%CI 1.7-2.8) condition were more likely than those with a congenital condition to experience polypharmacy. Increasing age, being diagnosed with a LLC under one year of age, having >1 life-limiting or chronic condition or living in areas of higher deprivation were also associated with higher prevalence of polypharmacy., Conclusion: Children with life-limiting conditions have a high prevalence of polypharmacy and some children are at greater risk than others. More research is needed to understand and address the factors that lead to problematic polypharmacy in this population., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Socioeconomic status is a key predictor of lifetime health: poorer people can expect to live shorter lives with lower average health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) than richer people. In this study, we aimed to improve understanding of the socioeconomic gradient in HRQoL by exploring how inequalities in different dimensions of HRQoL differ by age., Methods: Data were derived from the Health Survey for England for 2017 and 2018 (14,412 participants). HRQoL was measured using the EQ-5D-5L instrument. We estimated mean EQ-5D utility scores and reported problems on five HRQoL dimensions (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort, anxiety/depression) for ages 16 to 90+ and stratified by neighbourhood deprivation quintiles. Relative and absolute measures of inequality were assessed., Results: Mean EQ-5D utility scores declined with age and followed a socioeconomic gradient, with the lowest scores in the most deprived areas. Gaps between the most and least deprived quintiles emerged around the age of 35, reached their greatest extent at age 60 to 64 (relative HRQoL of most deprived compared to least deprived quintile: females = 0.77 (95% CI: 0.68-0.85); males = 0.78 (95% CI: 0.69-0.87)) before closing again in older age groups. Gaps were apparent for all five EQ-5D dimensions but were greatest for mobility and self-care., Conclusion: There are stark socioeconomic inequalities in all dimensions of HRQoL in England. These inequalities start to develop from early adulthood and increase with age but reduce again around retirement age., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Approximately 60 000 people in England have coexisting type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and severe mental illness (SMI). They are more likely to have poorer health outcomes and require more complex care pathways compared with those with T2DM alone. Despite increasing prevalence, little is known about the healthcare resource use and costs for people with both conditions., Aims: To assess the impact of SMI on healthcare resource use and service costs for adults with T2DM, and explore the predictors of healthcare costs and lifetime costs for people with both conditions., Method: This was a matched-cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics for 1620 people with comorbid SMI and T2DM and 4763 people with T2DM alone. Generalised linear models and the Bang and Tsiatis method were used to explore cost predictors and mean lifetime costs respectively., Results: There were higher average annual costs for people with T2DM and SMI (£1930 higher) than people with T2DM alone, driven primarily by mental health and non-mental health-related hospital admissions. Key predictors of higher total costs were older age, comorbid hypertension, use of antidepressants, use of first-generation antipsychotics, and increased duration of living with both conditions. Expected lifetime costs were approximately £35 000 per person with both SMI and T2DM. Extrapolating nationally, this would generate total annual costs to the National Health Service of around £250 m per year., Conclusions: Our estimates of resource use and costs for people with both T2DM and SMI will aid policymakers and commissioners in service planning and resource allocation.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an important risk factor for ischaemic stroke, and AF incidence is expected to increase. Guidelines recommend using oral anticoagulants (OACs) to prevent the development of stroke. However, studies have reported the frequent underuse of OACs in AF patients. The objective of this study is to describe nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) incidence in England and assess the clinical and socioeconomic factors associated with the underprescribing of OACs., Methods and Findings: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database to identify patients with NVAF aged ≥18 years and registered in English general practices between 2009 and 2019. Annual incidence rate of NVAF by age, deprivation quintile, and region was estimated. OAC prescribing status was explored for patients at risk for stroke and classified into the following: OAC, aspirin only, or no treatment. We used a multivariable multinomial logistic regression model to estimate relative risk ratios (RRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the factors associated with OAC or aspirin-only prescribing compared to no treatment in patients with NVAF who are recommended to take OAC. The multivariable regression was adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, baseline treatment, frailty, bleeding risk factors, and takes into account clustering by general practice. Between 2009 and 2019, 12,517,191 patients met the criteria for being at risk of developing NVAF. After a median follow-up of 4.6 years, 192,265 patients had an incident NVAF contributing a total of 647,876 person-years (PYR) of follow-up. The overall age-adjusted incidence of NVAF per 10,000 PYR increased from 20.8 (95% CI: 20.4; 21.1) in 2009 to 25.5 (25.1; 25.9) in 2019. Higher incidence rates were observed for older ages and males. Among NVAF patients eligible for anticoagulation, OAC prescribing rose from 59.8% (95% CI: 59.0; 60.6) in 2009 to 83.2% (95% CI: 83.0; 83.4) in 2019. Several conditions were associated with lower risk of OAC prescribing: dementia [RRR 0.52 (0.47; 0.59)], liver disease 0.58 (0.50; 0.67), malignancy 0.74 (0.72; 0.77), and history of falls 0.82 (0.78; 0.85). Compared to white ethnicity, patients from black and other ethnic minorities were less likely to receive OAC; 0.78 (0.65; 0.94) and 0.76 (0.64; 0.91), respectively. Patients living in the most deprived areas were less likely to receive OAC 0.85 (0.79; 0.91) than patients living in the least deprived areas. Practices located in the East of England were associated with higher risk of prescribing aspirin only over no treatment than practices in London (RRR 1.22; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.45). The main limitation of this study is that these findings depends on accurate recording of conditions by health professionals and the inevitable residual confounding due to lack of data on certain factors that could be associated with under-prescribing of OACs., Conclusions: The incidence of NVAF increased between 2009 and 2015, before plateauing. Underprescribing of OACs in NVAF is associated with a range of comorbidities, ethnicity, and socioeconomic factors, demonstrating the need for initiatives to reduce inequalities in the care for AF patients., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: DA received research grants from AbbVie, Almirall, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, UCB, and the Leo Foundation.

Objectives: Emergency departments (EDs) in NHS hospitals in England have faced considerable increases in demand over recent years. Most hospitals have developed general practitioner services in emergency departments (GPEDs) to treat non-emergency patients, aiming to relieve pressure on other staff and to improve ED efficiency and patient experience. We measured the impact of GPED services on patient flows, health outcomes and ED workload., Design: Retrospective observational study. Differences in GPED service availability across EDs and time of day were used to identify the causal effect of GPED, as patients attending the ED at the same hour of the day are quasi-randomly assigned to treatment or control groups based on their local ED's service availability., Participants: Attendances to 40 EDs in English NHS hospitals from April 2018 to March 2019, 4 441 349 observations., Primary and Secondary Outcomes Measured: Outcomes measured were volume of attendances, 'non-urgent' attendances, waiting times over 4 hours, patients leaving without being treated, unplanned reattendances within 7 days, inpatient admissions and 30-day mortality., Results: We found a small, statistically significant reduction in unplanned reattendances within 7 days (OR 0.968, 95% CI 0.948 to 0.989), equivalent to 302 fewer reattendances per year for the average ED. The clinical impact of this was judged to be negligible. There was no detectable impact on any other outcome measure., Conclusions: We found no adverse effects on patient outcomes; neither did we find any evidence of the hypothesised benefits of placing GPs in emergency settings beyond a marginal reduction in reattendances that was not considered clinically significant., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Deaths in the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Wales were unevenly distributed socioeconomically and geographically. However, the full scale of inequalities may have been underestimated to date, as most measures of excess mortality do not adequately account for varying age profiles of deaths between social groups. We measured years of life lost (YLL) attributable to the pandemic, directly or indirectly, comparing mortality across geographic and socioeconomic groups., Methods and Findings: We used national mortality registers in England and Wales, from 27 December 2014 until 25 December 2020, covering 3,265,937 deaths. YLLs (main outcome) were calculated using 2019 single year sex-specific life tables for England and Wales. Interrupted time-series analyses, with panel time-series models, were used to estimate expected YLL by sex, geographical region, and deprivation quintile between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020 by cause: direct deaths (COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases), cardiovascular disease and diabetes, cancer, and other indirect deaths (all other causes). Excess YLL during the pandemic period were calculated by subtracting observed from expected values. Additional analyses focused on excess deaths for region and deprivation strata, by age-group. Between 7 March 2020 and 25 December 2020, there were an estimated 763,550 (95% CI: 696,826 to 830,273) excess YLL in England and Wales, equivalent to a 15% (95% CI: 14 to 16) increase in YLL compared to the equivalent time period in 2019. There was a strong deprivation gradient in all-cause excess YLL, with rates per 100,000 population ranging from 916 (95% CI: 820 to 1,012) for the least deprived quintile to 1,645 (95% CI: 1,472 to 1,819) for the most deprived. The differences in excess YLL between deprivation quintiles were greatest in younger age groups; for all-cause deaths, a mean of 9.1 years per death (95% CI: 8.2 to 10.0) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 10.8 (95% CI: 10.0 to 11.6) in the most deprived; for COVID-19 and other respiratory deaths, a mean of 8.9 years per death (95% CI: 8.7 to 9.1) were lost in the least deprived quintile, compared to 11.2 (95% CI: 11.0 to 11.5) in the most deprived. For all-cause mortality, estimated deaths in the most deprived compared to the most affluent areas were much higher in younger age groups, but similar for those aged 85 or over. There was marked variability in both all-cause and direct excess YLL by region, with the highest rates in the North West. Limitations include the quasi-experimental nature of the research design and the requirement for accurate and timely recording., Conclusions: In this study, we observed strong socioeconomic and geographical health inequalities in YLL, during the first calendar year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These were in line with long-standing existing inequalities in England and Wales, with the most deprived areas reporting the largest numbers in potential YLL., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: CG declares receiving support from Abbot and BMS towards this work, consulting fees from Amgen and AstraZeneca, honoraria from AstraZeneca, participation in Data Safety Monitoring Boards for several trials (TACTIC, DUAL-ACS, DANBLOCK, PROFID, RAPID NSTEMI, STEEER-AF), stock options with the European Heart Journal Quality of Care and Clinical Outcomes as Deputy Editor, and other financial interests with Wondr Medical. MKR declares Cell catapult and NovoNordisk consulting fees, unrelated to the content of the manuscript. None of the other authors have anything relevant to declare.

Objective: People in disadvantaged areas are more likely to have an avoidable emergency hospital admission. Socio-economic inequality in avoidable emergency hospital admissions is monitored in England. Our aim was to inform local health care purchasing and planning by identifying recent health care system changes (or other factors), as reported by local health system leaders, that might explain narrowing or widening trends., Methods: Case studies were undertaken in one pilot and at five geographically distinct local health care systems (Clinical Commissioning Groups, CCGs), identified as having consistently increasing or decreasing inequality. Local settings were explored through discussions with CCG officials and stakeholders to identify potential local determinants. Data were analysed using a realist evaluation approach to generate context-mechanism-outcome (CMO) configurations., Results: Of the five geographically distinct CCGs, two had narrowing inequality, two widening, and one narrowing inequality, which widened during the project. None of the CCGs had designed a large-scale package of service changes with the explicit aim of reducing socio-economic inequality in avoidable emergency admissions, and local decision makers were unfamiliar with their own trends. Potential primary and community care determinants included: workforce, case finding and exclusion, proactive care co-ordination for patients with complex needs, and access and quality. Potential commissioning determinants included: data use and incentives, and targeting of services. Other potential determinants included changes in care home services, national A&E targets, and wider issues - such as public services financial constraints, residential gentrification, and health care expectations., Conclusions: We did not find any bespoke initiatives that explained the inequality trends. The trends were more likely due to an interplay of multiple health care and wider system factors. Local decision makers need greater awareness, understanding and support to interpret, use and act upon inequality indicators. They are unlikely to find simple, cheap interventions to reduce inequalities in avoidable emergency admissions. Rather, long-term multifaceted interventions are required that embed inequality considerations into mainstream decision making.

Background: This study examines the claim that social inequality in health in European populations was absent prior to 1750. This claim is primarily based on comparisons of life expectancy at birth in England between general and ducal (elite aristocrat) social classes from the 1550s to the 1870s., Methods: We examined historic childhood mortality trends among the English ducal class and the general population, based on previously published data. We compared mid-childhood to adolescent mortality (age 5-14) and early-childhood mortality (age 0-4) between the ducal class and the general population from the 17 th to 19 th centuries., Results: Prior to 1750, ducal early-childhood mortality was higher than the general population. However, mid-childhood to adolescent mortality was lower among the ducal class than the general population in all observed periods for boys, and almost all periods for girls. Among the ducal class, but not the general population, there was a sharp decline in early-childhood mortality around the 1750s which may partly explain the divergent trends in overall life expectancy at birth., Conclusion: Health inequality between the ducal class and general population was present in England from the 16 th to mid-18 th centuries, with disadvantages in mortality for ducal children in infancy and early childhood, but survival advantages in mid-childhood and adolescence. These opposing effects are obscured in life expectancy at birth data. Relatively high early-childhood mortality among ducal families before 1750 likely resulted from short birth intervals and harmful infant feeding practices during this time., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2021 The Authors.)

Objective: To estimate the equity impacts of the 2007 smoking ban in England, for both smokers and non-smokers., Design: Doubly robust regression discontinuity analysis of salivary cotinine levels. Conditional average treatment effects were used to estimate differential impacts of the ban by socioeconomic deprivation (based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation). Distributional impacts were further assessed using conditional quantile treatment effects and inequality treatment effects., Setting: In 2007, England introduced a ban on smoking in public places. This had little impact on tobacco consumption by smokers but was associated with decreases in environmental tobacco smoke exposure for non-smokers. However, the impact of the ban on socioeconomic inequalities in exposure is unclear., Participants: 766 smokers and 2952 non-smokers responding to the Health Survey for England in 2007., Outcome Measure: Levels of salivary cotinine., Results: Before the ban, socioeconomic deprivation was associated with higher cotinine levels for non-smokers but not for smokers. The ban caused a significant reduction in average cotinine levels for non-smokers (p=0.043) but had no effect for smokers (p=0.817). Reductions for non-smokers were greater for more deprived groups with higher levels of exposure, and there was a significant reduction in socioeconomic-related inequality in cotinine. Across the whole population (both smokers and non-smokers), there was no significant increase in the concentration of cotinine levels among the socioeconomically deprived., Conclusion: The 2007 ban on smoking in public places had little impact on smokers, but was, as intended, associated with reductions in both (1) average levels of environmental tobacco smoke exposure and (2) deprivation-related inequality in exposure among non-smokers., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: People with severe mental illnesses (SMIs) have reduced life expectancy compared with the general population. Diabetes is a contributor to this disparity, with higher prevalence and poorer outcomes in people with SMI., Aim: To determine the impact of SMI on healthcare processes and outcomes for people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM)., Design and Setting: Retrospective, observational, matched, nested, case-control study conducted in England using patient records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linked to Hospital Episode Statistics., Method: A range of healthcare processes (primary care consultations, physical health checks, and metabolic measurements) and outcomes (prevalence and hospitalisation for cardiovascular disease [CVD], and mortality risk) were compared for 2192 people with SMI and T2DM (cases) with 7773 people who had diabetes alone (controls). Sociodemographics, comorbidity, and medication prescription were covariates in regression models., Results: When compared with results for participants with T2DM only, SMI was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.919, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.602 to 2.300) and CVD-specific mortality (HR 2.242, 95% CI = 1.547 to 3.250), higher primary care physician consultation rates (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.149, 95% CI = 1.111 to 1.188), more-frequent checks of blood pressure (IRR 1.024, 95% CI = 1.003 to 1.046) and cholesterol (IRR 1.038, 95% CI = 1.019 to 1.058), lower prevalence of angina (odds ratio 0.671, 95% CI = 0.450 to 1.001), more emergency admissions for angina (IRR 1.532, 95% CI = 1.069 to 2.195), and fewer elective admissions for ischaemic heart disease (IRR 0.682, 95% CI = 0.508 to 0.915)., Conclusion: Monitoring of metabolic measurements was comparable for people with T2DM who did, and did not, have SMI. Increased mortality rates observed in people with SMI may be attributable to underdiagnosis of CVD and delays in treatment., (© The Authors.)

Purpose: We review quantitative methods for analysing the equity impacts of health care and public health interventions: who benefits most and who bears the largest burdens (opportunity costs)? Mainstream health services research focuses on effectiveness and efficiency but decision makers also need information about equity., Design/methodology/approach: We review equity-informative methods of quantitative data analysis in three core areas of health services research: effectiveness analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis and performance measurement. An appendix includes further readings and resources., Findings: Researchers seeking to analyse health equity impacts now have a practical and flexible set of methods at their disposal which builds on the standard health services research toolkit. Some of the more advanced methods require specialised skills, but basic equity-informative methods can be used by any health services researcher with appropriate skills in the three core areas., Originality/value: We hope that this review will raise awareness of equity-informative methods of health services research and facilitate their entry into the mainstream so that health policymakers are routinely presented with information about who gains and who loses from their decisions., (© Emerald Publishing Limited.)

Aims: Diabetes is two to three times more prevalent in people with severe mental illness, yet little is known about the challenges of managing both conditions from the perspectives of people living with the co-morbidity, their family members or healthcare staff. Our aim was to understand these challenges and to explore the circumstances that influence access to and receipt of diabetes care for people with severe mental illness., Methods: Framework analysis of qualitative semi-structured interviews with people with severe mental illness and diabetes, family members, and staff from UK primary care, mental health and diabetes services, selected using a maximum variation sampling strategy between April and December 2018., Results: In all, 39 adults with severe mental illness and diabetes (3 with type 1 diabetes and 36 with type 2 diabetes), nine family members and 30 healthcare staff participated. Five themes were identified: (a) Severe mental illness governs everyday life including diabetes management; (b) mood influences capacity and motivation for diabetes self-management; (c) cumulative burden of managing multiple physical conditions; (d) interacting conditions and overlapping symptoms and (e) support for everyday challenges. People living with the co-morbidity and their family members emphasised the importance of receiving support for the everyday challenges that impact diabetes management, and identified barriers to accessing this from healthcare providers., Conclusions: More intensive support for diabetes management is needed when people's severe mental illness (including symptoms of depression) or physical health deteriorates. Interventions that help people, including healthcare staff, distinguish between symptoms of diabetes and severe mental illness are also needed., (© 2021 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.)

Background: Excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with those expected from historical trends have been unequally distributed, both geographically and socioeconomically. Not all excess deaths have been directly related to COVID-19 infection. We investigated geographical and socioeconomic patterns in excess deaths for major groups of underlying causes during the pandemic., Methods: Weekly mortality data from 27/12/2014 to 2/10/2020 for England and Wales were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. Negative binomial regressions were used to model death counts based on pre-pandemic trends for deaths caused directly by COVID-19 (and other respiratory causes) and those caused indirectly by it (cardiovascular disease or diabetes, cancers, and all other indirect causes) over the first 30 weeks of the pandemic (7/3/2020-2/10/2020)., Findings: There were 62,321 (95% CI: 58,849 to 65,793) excess deaths in England and Wales in the first 30 weeks of the pandemic. Of these, 46,221 (95% CI: 45,439 to 47,003) were attributable to respiratory causes, including COVID-19, and 16,100 (95% CI: 13,410 to 18,790) to other causes. Rates of all-cause excess mortality ranged from 78 per 100,000 in the South West of England and in Wales to 130 per 100,000 in the West Midlands; and from 93 per 100,000 in the most affluent fifth of areas to 124 per 100,000 in the most deprived. The most deprived areas had the highest rates of death attributable to COVID-19 and other indirect deaths, but there was no socioeconomic gradient for excess deaths from cardiovascular disease/diabetes and cancer., Interpretation: During the first 30 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic there was significant geographic and socioeconomic variation in excess deaths for respiratory causes, but not for cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancer. Pandemic recovery plans, including vaccination programmes, should take account of individual characteristics including health, socioeconomic status and place of residence., Funding: None., Competing Interests: CG declares receiving support from Abbot and BMS towards this work, consulting fees from Amgen and AstraZeneca, honoraria from AstraZeneca, participation in Data Safety Monitoring Boards for several trials (TACTIC, DUAL-ACS, DANBLOCK, PROFID, RAPID NSTEMI, STEEER-AF), stock options with the European Heart Journal Quality of Care and Clinical Outcomes as Deputy Editor, and other financial interests with Wondr Medical. None of the other authors have anything relevant to declare., (© 2021 The Author(s).)

Objectives: In England, older adults (aged ≥50 years) are at greater risk of being diagnosed with advanced stage HIV infection than younger adults. We explored journeys to testing and diagnosis among older adults, examining factors associated with late HIV diagnosis in this age group., Methods: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were performed with 12 adults diagnosed with HIV at age 50+ years and 12 health care professionals working in sexual health/HIV services. Data were analysed thematically, using the Model of Pathways to Treatment as a framework for analysis., Results: Older adults were often found to experience non-linear and complex diagnostic journeys. Pathways to diagnosis were affected by 6 factors: (i) the non-specific nature of HIV symptoms and their misattribution as being age-related; (ii) symptom severity, impact, and visibility; (iii) HIV health literacy; (iv) perceptions of HIV risk; (v) geographical location; and (vi) assessment in non-specialist settings., Conclusions: Older adults appear to encounter additional barriers to HIV testing compared with younger people, particularly when they are not part of a group targeted in HIV prevention and testing campaigns. To diagnose HIV more promptly in adults aged 50+ years, HIV knowledge and risk perception must increase in both older people and health care professionals. Health care professionals need to look beyond the 'high risk' groups that are most affected by HIV and consider HIV more readily in the diagnostic process.

Background: Deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic result directly from infection and exacerbation of other diseases and indirectly from deferment of care for other conditions, and are socially and geographically patterned. We quantified excess mortality in regions of England and Wales during the pandemic, for all causes and for non-COVID-19-associated deaths., Methods: Weekly mortality data for 1 January 2010 to 1 May 2020 for England and Wales were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. Mean-dispersion negative binomial regressions were used to model death counts based on pre-pandemic trends and exponentiated linear predictions were subtracted from: (i) all-cause deaths and (ii) all-cause deaths minus COVID-19 related deaths for the pandemic period (week starting 7 March, to week ending 8 May)., Findings: Between 7 March and 8 May 2020, there were 47 243 (95% CI: 46 671 to 47 815) excess deaths in England and Wales, of which 9948 (95% CI: 9376 to 10 520) were not associated with COVID-19. Overall excess mortality rates varied from 49 per 100 000 (95% CI: 49 to 50) in the South West to 102 per 100 000 (95% CI: 102 to 103) in London. Non-COVID-19 associated excess mortality rates ranged from -1 per 100 000 (95% CI: -1 to 0) in Wales (ie, mortality rates were no higher than expected) to 26 per 100 000 (95% CI: 25 to 26) in the West Midlands., Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic has had markedly different impacts on the regions of England and Wales, both for deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 infection and for deaths resulting from the national public health response., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

An inverse care law persists in almost all low-income and middle-income countries, whereby socially disadvantaged people receive less, and lower-quality, health care despite having greater need. By contrast, a disproportionate care law persists in high-income countries, whereby socially disadvantaged people receive more health care, but of worse quality and insufficient quantity to meet their additional needs. Both laws are caused not only by financial barriers and fragmented health insurance systems but also by social inequalities in care seeking and co-investment as well as the costs and benefits of health care. Investing in more integrated universal health coverage and stronger primary care, delivered in proportion to need, can improve population health and reduce health inequality. However, trade-offs sometimes exist between health policy objectives. Health-care technologies, policies, and resourcing should be subjected to distributional analysis of their equity impacts, to ensure the objective of reducing health inequalities is kept in sight., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: The impact of consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) on health outcomes such as obesity have been studied extensively, but oral health has been relatively neglected. This study aims to assess the association between SSB consumption and dental caries and erosion., Methods: Systematic review of observational studies. Search strategy applied to Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, SciELO, LILACS, OpenGrey and HMIC. The risk of bias was assessed using the NIH Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cross-Sectional Studies and evidence certainty using Grading of Recommendation Assessment Development and Evaluation. Relationships between SSB consumption and caries and erosion were estimated using random-effects model meta- and dose-response analyses., Results: A total of 38 cross-sectional studies were included, of which 26 were rated as high quality. Comparing moderate-to-low consumption, there was significantly increased risk of both caries [OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.28-1.92; decayed, missing and filled teeth weighted mean differences (DMFT WMD) = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.38-1.26] and erosion (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.01-2.03). Comparing high-to-moderate consumption, there was further increased risk of caries (OR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.17-1.99; DMFT WMD = 1.16, 95% CI: -0.59-2.91) and erosion (OR = 3.09, 95% CI: 1.37-6.97). A dose-response gradient and high certainty of evidence was observed for caries., Conclusions: Increasing SSB consumption is associated with increased risk of dental caries and erosion. Studies were cross-sectional, hence temporality could not be established, but the positive dose-response suggests this relationship is likely to be causal. These findings illustrate the potential benefits to oral health of policies that reduce SSB consumption, including sugar taxation., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.)

Background: Waterpipe tobacco smoking is becoming increasingly popular in the West among young people. Given the associated health risks of this behaviour, we aimed to investigate why young adults take up waterpipe tobacco smoking and their attitudes to the associated risks., Methods: This was a qualitative study, with a phenomenological perspective. Focus groups and face-to-face semi-structured interviews were conducted among waterpipe smokers aged 20-30 years living in London, UK. Transcripts were analysed using constant comparison and cycling between the data and analysis. Data collection continued until thematic saturation was achieved., Results: Sixteen smokers attended focus groups and face-to-face interviews. Seven main themes emerged encompassing four main dimensions relating to: lack of knowledge, perceived risk, affordability, and social addiction. Waterpipe was perceived to be safer than cigarette smoking due to the pleasant odour, fruity flavours, and belief that water filtered the toxins. The waterpipe had become a "social addiction" enhancing group atmosphere, was cheap and did not have the dangers of violence or hallucinations associated with other addictions like alcohol and drugs. Because of their intermittent smoking patterns and the lack of statutory warnings, none felt they were not at risk of any adverse side effects., Conclusions: Waterpipe smoking is a growing public health problem; the social environment associated with its use is perceived to be a positive outlet by smokers who do not consider it harmful to their health. These perceptions need to be addressed urgently by anti-smoking policies.

Objective: To address the issue of limited national data on the prevalence and distribution of underlying conditions among COVID-19 deaths between sexes and across age groups., Patients and Methods: All adult (≥18 years) deaths recorded in England and Wales (March 1, 2020, to May 12, 2020) were analyzed retrospectively. We compared the prevalence of underlying health conditions between COVID and non-COVID-related deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of COVID-19 compared with other primary causes of death, stratified by sex and age group., Results: Of 144,279 adult deaths recorded during the study period, 36,438 (25.3%) were confirmed COVID deaths. Women represented 43.2% (n=15,731) of COVID deaths compared with 51.9% (n=55,980) in non-COVID deaths. Overall, COVID deaths were younger than non-COVID deaths (82 vs 83 years). ASMR of COVID-19 was higher than all other common primary causes of death, across age groups and sexes, except for cancers in women between the ages of 30 and 79 years. A linear relationship was observed between ASMR and age among COVID-19 deaths, with persistently higher rates in men than women across all age groups. The most prevalent reported conditions were hypertension, dementia, chronic lung disease, and diabetes, and these were higher among COVID deaths. Pre-existing ischemic heart disease was similar in COVID (11.4%) and non-COVID (12%) deaths., Conclusion: In a nationwide analysis, COVID-19 infection was associated with higher age-standardized mortality than other primary causes of death, except cancer in women of select age groups. COVID-19 mortality was persistently higher in men and increased with advanced age., (Copyright © 2020 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: We aimed to spatially describe hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) in England at small-area geographical level and assess whether recorded practice performance under one of the world's largest primary care pay-for-performance schemes led to reductions in these potentially avoidable hospitalisations for chronic conditions incentivised in the scheme., Setting: We obtained numbers of ACSC hospital admissions from the Hospital Episode Statistics database and information on recorded practice performance from the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) administrative dataset for 2015/2016. We fitted three sets of negative binomial models to examine ecological associations between incentivised ACSC admissions, general practice performance, deprivation, urbanity and other sociodemographic characteristics., Results: Hospital admissions for QOF incentivised ACSCs varied within and between regions, with clusters of high numbers of hospital admissions for incentivised ACSCs identified across England. Our models indicated a very small effect of the QOF on reducing admissions for incentivised ACSCs (0.993, 95% CI 0.990 to 0.995), however, other factors, such as deprivation (1.021, 95% CI 1.020 to 1.021) and urbanicity (0.875, 95% CI 0.862 to 0.887), were far more important in explaining variations in admissions for ACSCs. People in deprived areas had a higher risk of being admitted in hospital for an incentivised ACSC condition., Conclusion: Spatial analysis based on routinely collected data can be used to identify areas with high rates of potentially avoidable hospital admissions, providing valuable information for targeting resources and evaluating public health interventions. Our findings suggest that the QOF had a very small effect on reducing avoidable hospitalisation for incentivised conditions. Material deprivation and urbanicity were the strongest predictors of the variation in ACSC rates for all QOF incentivised conditions across England., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To investigate whether continuity of care in family practice reduces unplanned hospital use for people with serious mental illness (SMI)., Data Sources: Linked administrative data on family practice and hospital utilization by people with SMI in England, 2007-2014., Study Design: This observational cohort study used discrete-time survival analysis to investigate the relationship between continuity of care in family practice and unplanned hospital use: emergency department (ED) presentations, and unplanned admissions for SMI and ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSC). The analysis distinguishes between relational continuity and management/ informational continuity (as captured by care plans) and accounts for unobserved confounding by examining deviation from long-term averages., Data Collection/extraction Methods: Individual-level family practice administrative data linked to hospital administrative data., Principal Findings: Higher relational continuity was associated with 8-11 percent lower risk of ED presentation and 23-27 percent lower risk of ACSC admissions. Care plans were associated with 29 percent lower risk of ED presentation, 39 percent lower risk of SMI admissions, and 32 percent lower risk of ACSC admissions., Conclusions: Family practice continuity of care can reduce unplanned hospital use for physical and mental health of people with SMI., (© 2019 The Authors. Health Services Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Health Research and Educational Trust.)

WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: People with severe mental illness (SMI) have a life expectancy of 15-20 years less than the general population, partly due to increased risk of physical disease, including type II diabetes (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease. Little is known about changes in cardiovascular risk factors over time in people with both T2DM and SMI compared to those with T2DM and no SMI. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: We investigated whether levels of cardiovascular risk factors, cholesterol, HbA 1c, systolic and diastolic blood pressure associated with adverse clinical outcomes are different in T2DM patients with and without SMI. We found significant differences in systolic blood pressure and HbA 1c between the two groups. Fifty-five percent and twenty-nine percent of T2DM patients with comorbid SMI are at increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes due to sub-optimal HbA 1c and systolic blood pressure levels, respectively. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: Many patients with T2DM and SMI have higher levels of cardiovascular risk compared to patients with T2DM only, and good management of risk factors is therefore particularly important in patients with both conditions. Achieving better control of HbA 1c levels is likely to be central to addressing inequalities in outcomes for patients with both SMI and T2DM. Abstract Introduction Patients with both severe mental illness (SMI) and type II diabetes (T2DM) have lower life expectancy than patients with T2DM alone, partly due to poor control of cardiovascular risk factors in comorbid patients. Aim To compare levels of cholesterol, HbA 1c and blood pressure in T2DM patients with and without SMI. Method We analysed longitudinal clinical records of 30,353 people with T2DM (657 with SMI; 29,696 controls without SMI) between 2001 and 2013 using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). We used mixed-effects regression models to compare cardiovascular risk factors between SMI and controls. Results Patients with SMI had lower mean systolic blood pressure (SBP; β: -2.49; SE = .45 p = <.01) and were more likely to have extreme (high and low) values of HbA 1c and SBP (OR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.16, 1.64 and 1.76:1.40, 2.21, respectively). Discussion People with T2DM and SMI have similar average values of cardiovascular risk factors to people with T2DM alone but are more likely to have values of HbA 1c and SBP indicating increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Implications for Practice Improved management of cardiovascular risk factors in general, glycaemic control in particular, is central to addressing the increased risk of adverse outcomes in people with both SMI and T2DM., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: The average life expectancy for people with a severe mental illness (SMI) such as schizophrenia or bipolar disorder is 15 to 20 years less than that for the population as a whole. Diabetes contributes significantly to this inequality, being 2 to 3 times more prevalent in people with SMI. Various risk factors have been implicated, including side effects of antipsychotic medication and unhealthy lifestyles, which often occur in the context of socioeconomic disadvantage and health care inequality. However, little is known about how these factors may interact to influence the risk of developing diabetes and poor diabetic outcomes, or how the organization and provision of health care may contribute., Objective: This study aims to identify the determinants of diabetes and to explore variation in diabetes outcomes for people with SMI., Methods: This study will employ a concurrent mixed methods design combining the interrogation of electronic primary care health records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) with qualitative interviews with adults with SMI and diabetes, their relatives and friends, and health care staff. The study has been funded for 2 years, from September 2017 to September 2019, and data collection has recently ended., Results: CPRD and linked health data will be used to explore the association of sociodemographics, illness, and health care-related factors with both the development and outcomes of type 2 diabetes in people with SMI. Experiences of managing the comorbidity and accessing health care will be explored through qualitative interviews using topic guides informed by evidence synthesis and expert consultation. Findings from both datasets will be merged to develop a more comprehensive understanding of diabetes risks, interventions, and outcomes for people with SMI. Findings will be translated into recommendations for interventions and services using co-design workshops., Conclusions: Improving diabetes outcomes for people with SMI is a high-priority area nationally and globally. Understanding how risk factors combine to generate high prevalence of diabetes and poor diabetic outcomes for this population is a necessary first step in developing health care interventions to improve outcomes for people with diabetes and SMI., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03534921; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03534921., (©Sue Bellass, Johanna Taylor, Lu Han, Stephanie L Prady, David Shiers, Rowena Jacobs, Richard Ian Gregory Holt, John Radford, Simon Gilbody, Catherine Hewitt, Tim Doran, Sarah L Alderson, Najma Siddiqi. Originally published in JMIR Research Protocols (http://www.researchprotocols.org), 06.09.2019.)

Background: routine frailty identification and management is national policy in England, but there remains a lack of evidence on the impact of frailty on healthcare resource use. We evaluated the impact of frailty on the use and costs of general practice and hospital care., Methods: retrospective longitudinal analysis using linked routine primary care records for 95,863 patients aged 65-95 years registered with 125 UK general practices between 2003 and 2014. Baseline frailty was measured using the electronic Frailty Index (eFI) and classified in four categories (non, mild, moderate, severe). Negative binomial regressions and ordinary least squares regressions with multilevel mixed effects were applied on the use and costs of general practice and hospital care., Results: compared with non-frail status, annual general practitioner consultation incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were 1.24 (95% CI: 1.21-1.27) for mild, 1.41 (95% CI: 1.35-1.47) for moderate, and 1.52 (95% CI: 1.42-1.62) for severe frailty. For emergency hospital admissions, the respective IRRs were 1.64 (95% CI 1.60-1.68), 2.45 (95% CI 2.37-2.53) and 3.16 (95% CI: 3.00-3.33). Compared with non-frail people the IRR for inpatient days was 7.26 (95% CI 6.61-7.97) for severe frailty. Using 2013/14 reference costs, extra annual cost to the healthcare system per person was £561.05 for mild, £1,208.60 for moderate and £2,108.20 for severe frailty. This equates to a total additional cost of £5.8 billion per year across the UK., Conclusions: increasing frailty is associated with substantial increases in healthcare costs, driven by increased hospital admissions, longer inpatient stay, and increased general practice consultations., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: Although U.K. and international guidelines recommend monotherapy, antipsychotic polypharmacy among patients with serious mental illness is common in clinical practice. However, empirical evidence on its effectiveness is scarce. Therefore, the authors estimated the effectiveness of antipsychotic polypharmacy relative to monotherapy in terms of health care utilization and mortality., Methods: Primary care data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink, hospital data from Hospital Episode Statistics, and mortality data from the Office of National Statistics were linked to compile a cohort of patients with serious mental illness in England from 2000 to 2014. The antipsychotic prescribing profile of 17,255 adults who had at least one antipsychotic drug record during the period of observation was constructed from primary care medication records. Survival analysis models were estimated to identify the effect of antipsychotic polypharmacy on the time to first occurrence of each of three outcomes: unplanned hospital admissions (all cause), emergency department (ED) visits, and mortality., Results: Relative to monotherapy, antipsychotic polypharmacy was not associated with increased risk of unplanned hospital admission (hazard ratio [HR]=1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.98-1.32), ED visit (HR=0.95; 95% CI=0.80-1.14), or death (HR=1.02; 95% CI=0.76-1.37). Relative to not receiving antipsychotic medication, monotherapy was associated with a reduced hazard of unplanned admissions to the hospital and ED visits, but it had no effect on mortality., Conclusions: The study results support current guidelines for antipsychotic monotherapy in routine clinical practice. However, they also suggest that when clinicians have deemed antipsychotic polypharmacy necessary, health care utilization and mortality are not affected.

Background: Standardized mortality rates are routinely used as measures of hospital performance and quality. Such metrics may, however, be biased if hospital admission thresholds differ and patient severity is not fully measured., Aim: To examine whether comparisons of hospital mortality rates suffer from selection bias due to variations in hospital admission rates, using the example of variations by day of the week., Data: 12,900,687 emergency department attendances and 3,418,446 unplanned admissions to all acute non-specialist hospitals of the National Health Service in England between 1 April 2013 and 28 February 2014., Methods: Population-based retrospective cohort study. Mortality within 30 days of attendance is modelled as a function of weekend or weekday attendance and hospital-level predictors of admission rates using patient-level risk-adjusted probit and bivariate Heckman selection models. Robustness is supported by the use of different hospital-level predictors., Results: When examining only the admitted population, patients admitted to hospital at weekends have a 0.206 percentage point higher risk of death within 30 days compared to patients admitted during the week. However, patients attending emergency departments at weekends have a 1.390 percentage point lower probability of being admitted to hospital. Once this selection bias is accounted for, the weekend effect in mortality is reduced by two-thirds to a 0.068 percentage point increase in the risk of death., Conclusions: Comparisons of standardized hospital mortality rates following unplanned admissions can be biased by variations in emergency department admission rates, leading to incorrect conclusions about quality. The use of mortality as a performance measure could therefore lead to misleading comparisons if admission rates vary and illness severity is not fully controlled for. Accounting for sample selection bias and dependence between admission and mortality rates is vital if accurate comparisons of hospital performance are to be made., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: There are substantial concerns about GP workload. The Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) has been perceived by both professionals and patients as bureaucratic, but the full impact of the QOF on GP workload is not well known., Aim: To assess the impact of the QOF on GP consultation rates for patients with diabetes mellitus., Design and Setting: This study used interrupted time series of 13 248 745 general practice consultations for 37 065 patients with diabetes mellitus in England., Method: Clinical Practice Research Datalink general practice data were used from 2000/2001 to 2014/2015, with introduction of the QOF (1 April 2004) as the intervention, and mean annual GP consultation rates as the primary outcome., Results: Mean annual GP clinical consultation rates were 8.10 per patient in 2000/2001, 6.91 in 2004/2005, and 7.09 in 2014/2015. Introduction of the QOF was associated with an annual change in the trend of GP clinical consultation rates of 0.46 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.23 to 0.69, P = 0.001) consultations per patient, giving a post-QOF trend increasing by 0.018 consultations per year. Introduction of the QOF was associated with an immediate stepped increase of 'other' out-of-hours and non-clinical encounters, and trend change of 0.57 (95% CI = 0.34 to 0.81, P <0.001) per year, resulting in a post-QOF trend increasing by 0.27 other encounters per year., Conclusion: Introduction of the QOF was associated with a modest increase in clinical GP consultation rates and substantial increase in other encounters for patients with diabetes independent of changes in diabetes prevalence. National prevalence of diabetes increased by 90.7% from 2004/2005 to 2014/2015, which, combined with this study's findings, means GPs would have provided nearly double the number of consultations for patients with diabetes over this timescale., (© British Journal of General Practice 2019.)

Older adults with HIV are at increased risk of late diagnosis. We aimed to explore the association between age and HIV testing rates in sexual health clinics in England using Public Health England data for 2009-2014. We investigated associations between attendee age and likelihood of HIV test offer, acceptance, and coverage. For each year, increasing age was associated with reduced likelihood of test offer (R s -0.797 to -0.958, p < 0·01). Offer rates were highest for men who have sex with men (MSM), and lowest for heterosexual females (HSFs). HSFs had the greatest decline in offer rates with age (from 86.2% for age 25-29 to 52.1% for age 70+ in 2014). Odds ratios for test offer in 2014 for attendees aged 15-49 compared with attendees aged 50+ were 1.94 (95%CI: 1.88, 2.00) for heterosexual males (HSMs), 1.86 (95%CI: 1.81, 1.91) for HSFs, and 1.54 (95%CI: 1.45, 1.64) for MSM. Overall, there was no significant association between age and test acceptance in any year (R s -0.070 to -0.547; p > 0·05). The strongest determinant of acceptance was sexual orientation; for attendees aged 50+, compared with HSMs, acceptance was higher for MSM (OR: 1.10; 95%CI: 1.06, 1.13) and lower for HSFs (OR: 0.30; 95%CI: 0.30, 0.31).

The creation of the National Health Service (NHS) marked a radical break with the past, making health care universally available on the basis of need rather than means. The NHS was conceived during wartime emergency and has had to survive further regular crises to reach its 70th year, but it now faces challenges that are unprecedented in scale and there are doubts about its ability to continue in its present form. Resources have not increased with need, and the NHS can no longer function as a comprehensive service during periods of peak demand. Policymakers look for solutions in service rearrangements, new technologies, quality improvement initiatives and alternative funding arrangements; meanwhile, chronic lack of capacity is taking a predictable toll on patient care and staff morale. The NHS has become a formidably resilient institution, but securing its future may take as great a collective effort as the one that created it.

Background: Since the mid-1990s, excess mortality has increased markedly for adults aged 25-44 years in the north compared with the south of England. We examined the underlying causes of this excess mortality and the contribution of socioeconomic deprivation., Methods: Mortality data from the Office of National Statistics for adults aged 25-44 years were aggregated and compared between England's five most northern versus five most southern government office regions between Jan 1, 1981, and Dec 31, 2016. Poisson regression models, adjusted for age and sex, were used to quantify excess mortality in the north compared with the south by underlying cause of death (accidents, alcohol related, cardiovascular disease and diabetes, drug related, suicide, cancer, and other causes). The role of socioeconomic deprivation, as measured by the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation, in explaining the excess and regional variability was also explored., Findings: A mortality divide between the north and south appeared in the mid-1990s and rapidly expanded thereafter for deaths attributed to accidents, alcohol misuse, and drug misuse. In the 2014-16 period, the northern excess was incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1·47 (95% CI 1·39-1·54) for cardiovascular reasons, 2·09 (1·94-2·25) for alcohol misuse, and 1·60 (1·51-1·70) for drug misuse, across both men and women aged 25-44 years. National mortality rates for cardiovascular deaths declined over the study period but a longstanding gap between north and south persisted (from 33·3 [95% CI 31·8-34·8] in 1981 to 15·0 [14·0-15·9] in 2016 in the north vs from 23·5 [22·3-24·8] to 9·9 [9·2-10·5] in the south). Between 2014 and 2016, estimated excess numbers of death in the north versus the south for those aged 25-44 years were 1881 (95% CI 726-2627) for women and 3530 (2216-4511) for men. Socioeconomic deprivation explained up to two-thirds of the excess mortality in the north (IRR for northern effect reduced from 1·15 [95% CI 1·14-1·15; unadjusted] to 1·05 [1·04-1·05; adjusted for Index of Multiple Deprivation]). By 2016, in addition to the persistent north-south gap, mortality rates in London were lower than in all other regions, with IRRs ranging from IRR 1·13 (95% CI 1·12-1·15) for the East England to 1·22 (1·20-1·24) for the North East, even after adjusting for deprivation., Interpretation: Sharp relative rises in deaths from cardiovascular reasons, alcohol misuse and drug misuse in the north compared with the south seem to have created new health divisions between England's regions. This gap might be due to exacerbation of existing social and health inequalities that have been experienced for many years. These divisions might suggest increasing psychological distress, despair, and risk taking among young and middle-aged adults, particularly outside of London., Funding: Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To investigate whether two primary care activities that are framed as indicators of primary care quality (comprehensive care plans and annual reviews of physical health) influence unplanned utilisation of hospital services for people with serious mental illness (SMI)., Design, Setting, Participants: Retrospective observational cohort study using linked primary care and hospital records (Hospital Episode Statistics) for 5158 patients diagnosed with SMI between April 2006 and March 2014, who attended 213 primary care practices in England that contribute to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database., Outcomes and Analysis: Cox survival models were used to estimate the associations between two primary care quality indicators (care plans and annual reviews of physical health) and the hazards of three types of unplanned hospital utilisation: presentation to accident and emergency departments (A&E), admission for SMI and admission for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC)., Results: Risk of A&E presentation was 13% lower (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.98) and risk of admission to hospital for ACSC was 23% lower (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.99) for patients with a care plan documented in the previous year compared with those without a care plan. Risk of A&E presentation was 19% lower for those who had a care plan documented earlier but not updated in the previous year (HR: 0.81, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.97) compared with those without a care plan. Risks of hospital admission for SMI were not associated with care plans, and none of the outcomes were associated with annual reviews., Conclusions: Care plans documented in primary care for people with SMI are associated with reduced risk of A&E attendance and reduced risk of unplanned admission to hospital for physical health problems, but not with risk of admission for mental health problems. Annual reviews of physical health are not associated with risk of unplanned hospital utilisation., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Influenza A virus (IAV) represents an ongoing threat to human and animal health worldwide. The generation of IAV-resistant chickens through genetic modification and/or selective breeding may help prevent viral spread. The feasibility of creating genetically modified birds has already been demonstrated with the insertion of transgenes that target IAV into the genomes of chickens. This approach has been met with some success in minimising the spread of IAV but has limitations in terms of its ability to prevent the emergence of disease. An alternate approach is the use of genetic engineering to improve host resistance by targeting the antiviral immune responses of poultry to IAV. Harnessing such resistance mechanisms in a "genetic restoration" approach may hold the greatest promise yet for generating disease resistant chickens. Continuing to identify genes associated with natural resistance in poultry provides the opportunity to identify new targets for genetic modification and/or selective breeding. However, as with any new technology, economic, societal, and legislative barriers will need to be overcome before we are likely to see commercialisation of genetically modified birds.

Introduction: Pressure continues to grow on emergency departments in the UK and throughout the world, with declining performance and adverse effects on patient outcome, safety and experience. One proposed solution is to locate general practitioners to work in or alongside the emergency department (GPED). Several GPED models have been introduced, however, evidence of effectiveness is weak. This study aims to evaluate the impact of GPED on patient care, the primary care and acute hospital team and the wider urgent care system., Methods and Analysis: The study will be divided into three work packages (WPs). WP-A; Mapping and Taxonomy: mapping, description and classification of current models of GPED in all emergency departments in England and interviews with key informants to examine the hypotheses that underpin GPED. WP-B; Quantitative Analysis of National Data: measurement of the effectiveness, costs and consequences of the GPED models identified in WP-A, compared with a no-GPED model, using retrospective analysis of Hospital Episode Statistics Data. WP-C; Case Studies: detailed case studies of different GPED models using a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods including: non-participant observation of clinical care, semistructured interviews with staff, patients and carers; workforce surveys with emergency department staff and analysis of available local routinely collected hospital data. Prospective case study sites will be identified by completing telephone interviews with sites awarded capital funding by the UK government to implement GPED initiatives. The study has a strong patient and public involvement group that has contributed to study design and materials, and which will be closely involved in data interpretation and dissemination., Ethics and Dissemination: The study has been approved by the National Health Service East Midlands-Leicester South Research Ethics Committee: 17/EM/0312. The results of the study will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conferences and a planned programme of knowledge mobilisation., Trial Registration Number: ISRCTN51780222., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JRB is seconded part time to the post of National Clinical Director for Urgent Care at NHS England., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Birds have a ZZ male and ZW female sex chromosome system. The relative roles of genetics and hormones in regulating avian sexual development have been revealed by studies on gynandromorphs. Gynandromorphs are rare bilateral sex chimeras, male on one side of the body and female on the other. We examined a naturally occurring gynandromorphic chicken that was externally male on the right side of the body and female on the left. The bird was diploid but with a mix of ZZ and ZW cells that correlated with the asymmetric sexual phenotype. The male side was 96% ZZ, and the female side was 77% ZZ and 23% ZW. The gonads of this bird at sexual maturity were largely testicular. The right gonad was a testis, with SOX9+ Sertoli cells, DMRT1+ germ cells, and active spermatogenesis. The left gonad was primarily testicular, but with some peripheral aromatase-expressing follicles. The bird had low levels of serum estradiol and high levels of testosterone, as expected for a male. Despite the low percentage of ZW cells on that side, the left side had female sex-linked feathering, smaller muscle mass, smaller leg and spur, and smaller wattle than the male side. This indicates that these sexually dimorphic structures must be at least partly independent of sex steroid effects. Even a small percentage of ZW cells appears sufficient to support female sexual differentiation. Given the lack of chromosome-wide dosage compensation in birds, various sexually dimorphic features may arise due to Z-gene dosage differences between the sexes.

Background: Pay-for-performance policies aim to improve population health by incentivising improvements in quality of care.AimsTo assess the relationship between general practice performance on severe mental illness (SMI) and depression indicators under a national incentivisation scheme and suicide risk in England for the period 2006-2014., Method: Longitudinal spatial analysis for 32 844 small-area geographical units (lower super output areas, LSOAs), using population-structure adjusted numbers of suicide as the outcome variable. Negative binomial models were fitted to investigate the relationship between spatially estimated recorded quality of care and suicide risk at the LSOA level. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were adjusted for deprivation, social fragmentation, prevalence of depression and SMI as well as other 2011 Census variables., Results: No association was found between practice performance on the mental health indicators and suicide incidence in practice localities (IRR=1.000, 95% CI 0.998-1.002). IRRs indicated elevated suicide risks linked with area-level social fragmentation (1.030; 95% CI 1.027-1.034), deprivation (1.013, 95% CI 1.012-1.014) and rurality (1.059, 95% CI 1.027-1.092)., Conclusions: Primary care has an important role to play in suicide prevention, but we did not observe a link between practices' higher reported quality of care on incentivised mental health activities and lower suicide rates in the local population. It is likely that effective suicide prevention needs a more concerted, multiagency approach. Better training in suicide prevention for general practitioners is also essential. These findings pertain to the UK but have relevance to other countries considering similar programmes.Declaration of interestNone.

Background: Introduced in 2004, the United Kingdom's (UK) Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) is the world's largest primary-care pay-for-performance programme. Given some evidence of the benefits and the substantial costs associated with the QOF, it remains unclear whether the programme is cost-effective. Therefore, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of continuing versus stopping the QOF., Methods: We developed a lifetime simulation model to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs for a UK population cohort aged 40-74 years (n = 27,070,862) exposed to the QOF and for a counterfactual scenario without exposure. Based on a previous retrospective cross-country analysis using data from 1994 to 2010, we assumed the benefits of the QOF to be a change in age-adjusted mortality of -3.68 per 100,000 population (95% confidence interval -8.16 to 0.80). We used cost-effectiveness thresholds of £30,000/QALY, £20,000/QALY and £13,000/QALY to determine the optimal strategy in base-case and sensitivity analyses., Results: In the base-case analysis, continuing the QOF increased population-level QALYs and health-care costs yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £49,362/QALY. The ICER remained >£30,000/QALY in scenarios with and without non-fatal outcomes or increased drug costs, and under differing assumptions about the duration of QOF benefit following its hypothetical discontinuation. The ICER for continuing the programme fell below £30,000/QALY when QOF incentive payments were 36% lower (while preserving QOF mortality benefits), and in scenarios where the QOF resulted in substantial reductions in health-care spending or non-fatal cardiovascular disease events. Continuing the QOF was cost-effective in 18%, 3% and 0% of probabilistic sensitivity analysis iterations using thresholds of £30,000/QALY, £20,000/QALY and £13,000/QALY, respectively., Conclusions: Compared to stopping the QOF and returning all associated incentive payments to the National Health Service, continuing the QOF is not cost-effective. To improve population health efficiently, the UK should redesign the QOF or pursue alternative interventions.