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The steady-state is a situation of little variability of species dominance and total biomass over time. Maintenance of cyanobacteria are often observed in tropical and eutrophic ecosystems and can cause imbalances in aquatic ecosystem. Bayeasian networks allow the construction of simpls models that summarizes a large amount of variables and can predict the probability of occurrence of a given event. Studies considering Bayeasian networks built from environmental data to predict the occurrence of steady-state in aquatic ecosystems are scarce. This study aims to propose a Bayeasian network model to assess the occurrence, composition and duration of cyanobacteria steady-state in a tropical and eutrophic ecosystem. It was hypothesized long lasting steady-state events, composed by filamentous cyanobacteria species and directly influenced by eutrophication and drought. Our model showed steady-state lasting between 3 and 17 weeks with the monodominance or co-dominance of filamentous species, mainly Raphidiopsis raciborskii and Planktothrix agardhii. These evens occurred frequently under drought and high turbidity, however higher nutrients concentrations did not increase the probability steady-state occurrence or longer duration. The proposed model appears as a tool to assess the effects of future warming on steady-state occurrence and it can be a useful to more traditional process-based models for reservoirs.

The best agro-industrial performance presented by a crop genotype in one environment may not be reproduced in another owing to complex edaphoclimatic variations. Therefore, breeding programs are constantly attempting to obtain, through artificial hybridization, novel genotypes with high adaptability and stability potential. The objective of this study was to analyze genetic divergence in sugarcane based on the genotypic values of adaptability and stability. A total of 11 sugarcane genotypes were analyzed for eight agro-industrial traits. The genotypic values of the traits were determined using mixed model methodology, and the genetic divergence based on phenotypic and genotypic values was measured using the Mahalanobis distance. The distance matrices were correlated using the Mantel test, and the genotypes were grouped using the Tocher method. Genetic divergence is more accurate when based on genotypic values free of genotype-environment interactions and will differ from genetic divergence based on phenotypic data, changing the genotype allocations in the groups. The above methodology can be applied to assess genetic divergence to obtain novel sugarcane genotypes with higher productivity that are adapted to intensive agricultural systems using diverse technologies. This methodology can also be tested in other crops to increase accuracy in selecting the parents to be crossed., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.