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Aim: The aim of this study is to compare the utility of several supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms for predicting clinical events in terms of their internal validity and accuracy. The results, which were obtained using two statistical software platforms, were also compared., Materials and Methods: The data used in this research come from the open database of the Framingham Heart Study, which originated in 1948 in Framingham, Massachusetts as a prospective study of risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Through data mining processes, three data models were elaborated and a comparative methodological study between the different ML algorithms - decision tree, random forest, support vector machines, neural networks, and logistic regression - was carried out. The global selection criterium for choosing the right set of hyperparameters and the type of data manipulation was the area under a curve (AUC). The software tools used to analyze the data were R-Studio® and RapidMiner®., Results: The Framingham study open database contains 4240 observations. The algorithm that yielded the greatest AUC when analyzing the data in R-Studio was neural network applied to a model that excluded all observations in which there was at least one missing value (AUC = 0.71); when analyzing the data in RapidMiner and applying the same model, the best algorithm was support vector machines (AUC = 0.75)., Conclusions: ML algorithms can reinforce the diagnostic and prognostic capacity of traditional regression techniques. Differences between the applicability of those algorithms and the results obtained with them were a function of the software platforms used in the data analysis., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To describe the epidemiological characteristics and evolution of a cohort of HIV-infected patients in Madrid (Spain) over a period of 25 years., Methods: Longitudinal, prospective, cohort study of all patients diagnosed with HIV infection seen at the Hospital de Móstoles (1983-2008)., Results: Of the 2156 patients attended, 73% were men. In 68%, the route of infection was illicit drug use. There was a peak of new diagnoses in 1991 (188 patients) and a subsequent gradual decline. Sexual transmission increased over the time period studied, with a higher rise in heterosexual transmission. The percentage of immigrants with the infection also increased (more than 60% in the last 3 years). Sub-Saharan Africa remains the predominant region of origin of our immigrant patients. Over the period studied, 5% of patients were diagnosed during the acute infection, and 20% to 30% were diagnosed with AIDS within 1 year after detection of HIV infection. The estimated rate of new diagnoses of HIV infection in 2006 was 195 per million population (pmp), 269 pmp in men and 121 pmp in women., Conclusions: Many changes have occurred in the epidemiology of HIV infection in our area in the last 25 years. Routine serologic testing without waiting for warning signs would have an impact on early diagnosis and improving the prognosis of these patients., (Copyright 2008 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: The optimal timing for initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in patients with AIDS and tuberculosis (TB) is an unresolved question. To assess the effect of HAART on the survival of patients with TB, we designed this study., Methods: We selected all HIV patients included in the COMESEM cohort with TB diagnosis after 1996. Clinical and epidemiological data were registered. We compared patients who started HAART at the diagnosis of TB [simultaneous therapy (ST)] or not. Survival was assessed by Cox analysis., Results: Among the 6934 HIV patients included in the cohort, 1217 patients had TB, 322 of them (26.5%) after 1996. At the time of TB diagnosis, 45% of them started HAART (ST). There were no differences between groups regarding basal characteristics, except for a lower viral load in ST patients. ST therapy was associated with improved survival (hazard ratio 0.38; 95% confidence interval 0.20 to 0.72, P = 0.003). By univariate analysis, survival was also associated with no endovenous drug use and a later year of TB diagnosis. After adjusting for other prognostic variables, by Cox multivariate analysis, ST remained robustly associated with improved survival (hazard ratio 0.37; 95% confidence interval 0.17 to 0.66, P = 0.001)., Conclusions: Simultaneous HAART and TB treatment in HIV patients with TB is associated with improved survival.

Objectives: To evaluate the impact of immigration on tuberculosis (TB)-HIV co-infection in Spain in a prospective cohort of HIV patients., Methods: Among 7761 HIV patients, we evaluated 1284 with at least one episode of TB between 1987 and 2006. Variables were compared between immigrants and Spaniards., Results: Incidence of TB decreased from 20 to five cases per 100 patient-years in 2006 (P<0.01) and was always higher in immigrants than in Spaniards. The proportion of immigrants increased, reaching almost 50% of both new cases of HIV and TB-HIV co-infection in 2006. In 34.4% of patients, TB and HIV infection were diagnosed within the same year; simultaneous diagnosis was more frequent in immigrants (83.3%vs. 16.7%, P<0.001). Mortality was associated independently with age [hazard ratio (HR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.05], TB diagnosis before 1996 (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.8-3.6), use of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HR 0.494, 95% CI 0.37-0.66) and CD4 cell count at TB diagnosis (HR 0.996, 95% CI 0.995-0.997)., Conclusions: Immigrants have a major impact on the incidence of TB in HIV patients, slowing down the decreasing trend in Spain. Simultaneous diagnosis of the co-infection in immigrants reveals a need to intensify HIV case finding in immigrants in Spain.

Background: Little is known about the global effects of HAART on the use of medical resources after the complete implementation of this therapy in Spain. This study was designed to determine the use of medical resources and the costs of health care for HIV-infected patients., Methods: All patients with HIV infection who came to our institution during the year 2002 were included in the study. We analyzed the global assistance data and pharmaceutical costs during the year. Costs were calculated based on a unitary cost for DRG and an officially assigned standard cost for outpatient clinic, visits to the day care unit and to the emergency room (ER), outpatient surgery, and total costs of pharmacy., Results: The total cost for HIV-related health care assistance was euro739,048. The cost related to admissions was euro150,766.60; euro8631 per first visit and euro49,199.40 per successive visit; euro5085.10 per day care unit; euro14,920 per outpatient surgery; euro7655.70 per ER visit; and euro491,342.40 per antiretroviral treatment. A significant proportion of the total outpatient assistance was given by physicians other than HIV specialists, namely, 63% of the costs attributed to the first visit and 41% per successive visit., Conclusion: More than 50% of the costs of caring for HIV-infected patients are still attributed to antiretroviral therapy. Specialists other than infectious disease specialists provide a significant proportion of outpatient assistance. A method to control HIV costs is greatly needed.

Background: Assessment of patient satisfaction with antiretroviral therapy is generating increasing interest in clinical practice, since the outcome is directly related with compliance with therapy and its effectiveness. Currently, there is no validated patient satisfaction questionnaire to evaluate this factor as related to control of the disease., Patients and Methods: An "ad hoc" questionnaire--Cuestionario Español de Satisfacción con el Tratamiento Antiretroviral (CESTA), Spanish Antiretroviral Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire--was developed to evaluate satisfaction in patients switching to a simplified regimen. In a second phase, the questionnaire was validated in an observational study including 321 patients divided into two cohorts (patients switching to a simplified regimen and patients maintaining the same regimen)., Results: A total of 99% and 93% patients, respectively, completed the questionnaire at baseline and at the end-of-study visit. Cronbach's alpha coefficient for internal consistency and test-retest reliability were 0.82 and 0.69, respectively. Patients switching to a simplified regimen showed a statistically significant higher overall satisfaction score at the third-month visit than at baseline., Conclusions: The CESTA questionnaire is a valid instrument for use in clinical practice and provides valuable information on patient satisfaction with antiretroviral therapy.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequency, characteristics and risk factors of lipid changes associated with lopinavir/ritonavir treatment in antiretroviral-naive patients., Methods: A prospective cohort of 107 antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected patients was followed for 12 months after starting lopinavir/ritonavir-based highly active antiretroviral therapy., Results: At 12 months, percentages of patients with hypercholesterolaemia and hypertriglyceridaemia were 17.4% and 40%, respectively. Mean increases in total cholesterol and triglycerides were 40.7 and 73.3 mg/dL. There was a significant increase in both low-density and high-density (HDL) cholesterol, and no increase in the total cholesterol/HDL ratio (from 4.16 at baseline to 4.49 after 12 months). Baseline cholesterol > 200 mg/dL and triglycerides > 150 mg/dL were independent risk factors for dyslipidaemia, while hepatitis C coinfection appeared to be protective., Conclusions: Patients with elevated lipid values at baseline have the greatest risk of developing hypercholesterolaemia and hypertriglyceridaemia after starting lopinavir/ritonavir. Antiretroviral-naive patients coinfected with hepatitis C have a low risk of developing hyperlipidaemia after starting lopinavir/ritonavir.

Objective: Extra-laryngeal head and neck tuberculosis is exceptional. Therefore, a retrospective multicenter study in patients with head and neck tuberculosis, excluding solitary lymphadenitis and laryngeal locations was carried out., Methods: We reviewed the patients with these features and tuberculosis confirmation by culture and/or histologic granuloma with presence of acid-fast bacilli (AFB)., Results: We found 16 patients with the following locations: eight in oral cavity and/or pharynx, four in ear, two in salivary glands, one in nose and one in frontal sinuses. The average duration of symptoms was 11.5 months. Purified protein derivative (PPD) was positive (> 10 mm) in all but one patient in whom it was performed (six of seven). Except tuberculous otitis, which occured without reactive lymphadenitis, this was present in 50% of the rest (six of the 12). In all cases a biopsy was required for diagnosis. Only in four patients, all with pharyngeal locations, was coincident pulmonary tuberculosis confirmed. One patient with tuberculous otitis developed meningitis and died; three additional patients (two with otitis) were cured but with sequelae; the evolution of the remaining patients was satisfactory with medical therapy., Conclusions: Extra-laryngeal head and neck tuberculosis has a slow course. The diagnosis is difficult due to the common absence of lung involvement and the usual requirements for biopsy procedures. The outcome is usually favorable with antituberculous drugs alone although in tuberculous otitis there are possibilities of complications.