Search

Background: Recent guidelines recommend antihypertensive drug treatment for prehypertensive individuals with blood pressure between 130/80 and 139/89 mm Hg. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of 3 interventions in Chinese prehypertensive adults: salt substitution, antihypertensive drug treatment, and their combination., Methods: We developed a Markov cohort model to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a lifetime. Data from the China Kadoorie Biobank informed the simulation. Costs and utilities were drawn from published sources. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of salt substitution alone, antihypertensive drug treatment alone, and a combination of the 2, focusing on the overall prehypertensive population, those at high CVD risk, and different starting ages (40, 50, 60, and 70 years). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated per QALY gained., Results: Salt substitution at age 40 years is the only cost-effective strategy for prehypertensive individuals, with an ICER of $6413.62/QALY. For those at high CVD risk, the combination intervention starting at age 40 years is most cost-effective, with an ICER of $2913.30/QALY. Interventions initiated at younger ages yielded greater CVD reductions and lower ICERs. For example, a combined intervention at age 40 years reduces CVD events by 5.3% with an ICER of $2913.30/QALY, compared with 4.9% and $32 635.33/QALY at age 70 years. These results were consistent across sensitivity analyses., Conclusions: In China, replacing usual salt with a salt substitute is more cost-effective than treating prehypertensive individuals over the age of 40 years with antihypertensive drugs. Furthermore, starting intervention at a younger age in prehypertensive adults can result in even greater cost savings.

Adiposity is an established risk factor for multiple diseases, but the causal relationships of different adiposity types with circulating protein biomarkers have not been systematically investigated. We examine the causal associations of general and central adiposity with 2923 plasma proteins among 3977 Chinese adults (mean BMI = 23.9 kg/m²). Genetically-predicted body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage (BF%), waist circumference (WC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) are significantly (FDR < 0.05) associated with 399, 239, 436, and 283 proteins, respectively, with 80 proteins associated with all four and 275 with only one adiposity trait. WHR is associated with the most proteins (n = 90) after adjusting for other adiposity traits. These associations are largely replicated in Europeans (mean BMI = 27.4 kg/m²). Two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses in East Asians using cis-protein quantitative trait locus (cis-pQTLs) identified in GWAS find 30/2 proteins significantly affect levels of BMI/WC, respectively, with 10 showing evidence of colocalisation, and seven (inter-alpha-trypsin inhibitor heavy chain H3, complement factor B, EGF-containing fibulin-like extracellular matrix protein 1, thioredoxin domain-containing protein 15, alpha-2-antiplasmin, fibronectin, mimecan) are replicated in separate MR using different cis-pQTLs identified in Europeans. These findings identified potential novel mechanisms and targets, to our knowledge, for improved treatment and prevention of obesity and associated diseases., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Alterations in lipid metabolism and DNA methylation are 2 hallmarks of aging. Connecting metabolomic, epigenomic, and aging outcomes help unravel the complex mechanisms underlying aging. We aimed to assess whether DNA methylation clocks mediate the association of circulating metabolites with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and frailty., Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank is a prospective cohort study with a baseline survey from 2004 to 2008 and a follow-up period until December 31, 2018. We used the Infinium Methylation EPIC BeadChip to measure the methylation levels of 988 participants' baseline blood leukocyte DNA. Metabolite profiles, including lipoprotein particles, lipid constituents, and various circulating metabolites, were measured using quantitative nuclear magnetic resonance. The pace of DNA methylation age acceleration (AA) was calculated using 5 widely used epigenetic clocks (the first generation: Horvath, Hannum, and Li; the second generation: Grim and Pheno). Incident ASCVD was ascertained through linkage with local death and disease registries and national health insurance databases, supplemented by active follow-up. The frailty index was constructed using medical conditions, symptoms, signs, and physical measurements collected at baseline., Results: A total of 508 incident cases of ASCVD were documented during a median follow-up of 9.5 years. The first generation of epigenetic clocks was associated with the risk of ASCVD ( P <0.05). For each SD increment in LiAA, HorvathAA, and HannumAA, the corresponding hazard ratios for ASCVD risk were 1.16 (1.05-1.28), 1.10 (1.00-1.22), and 1.17 (1.04-1.31), respectively. Only LiAA mediated the association of various metabolites (lipids, fatty acids, histidine, and inflammatory biomarkers) with ASCVD, with the mediating proportion reaching up to 15% for the diameter of low-density lipoprotein ( P =1.2×10 -2 ). Regarding general aging, a 1-SD increase in GrimAA was associated with an average increase of 0.10 in the frailty index ( P =2.0×10 -3 ), and a 33% and 63% increased risk of prefrailty and frailty at baseline ( P =1.5×10 -2 and 5.8×10 -2 ), respectively; this association was not observed with other clocks. GrimAA mediated the effect of various lipids, fatty acids, glucose, lactate, and inflammatory biomarkers on the frailty index, with the mediating proportion reaching up to 22% for triglycerides in very small-sized very low-density lipoprotein ( P =6.0×10 -3 )., Conclusions: These findings suggest that epigenomic mechanisms may play a role in the associations between circulating metabolites and the aging process. Different mechanisms underlie the first and second generations of DNA methylation age in cardiovascular and general aging., Competing Interests: None.

Background: Little is known about the underlying relationship between mosaic loss of chromosome Y (mLOY), the most common chromosomal alterations in older men, and the risk of age-related lung diseases., Methods: We included 217 780 participants from the UK Biobank and 42 859 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank. The mLOY events were detected using the Mosaic Chromosomal Alterations pipeline. Outcomes included all lung diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer, and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of mLOY with lung diseases in both cohorts. The combined HRs were derived from meta-analysis., Results: Results from two cohorts showed that expanded mLOY was associated with increased risks of all lung diseases [HR (95% CI): 1.19 (1.04, 1.37)], COPD [HR (95% CI): 1.20 (1.13, 1.28)], lung cancer [HR (95% CI): 1.34 (1.21, 1.48)], and IPF [HR (95% CI): 1.34 (1.16, 1.56) in UKB]. There was evidence of positive interactions between mLOY and smoking behavior [relative excess risk due to interaction (97.5%CI)>0]. Additionally, we observed that current smokers with expanded mLOY had the highest risk of incident lung diseases in both cohorts., Conclusion: mLOY may be a novel predictor for age-related lung diseases. For current smokers carrying mLOY, adopting quitting smoking behavior may contribute to substantially reduce their risk of incident lung diseases., (Copyright ©The authors 2024.)

Aims: The relationships between long-term blood pressure (BP) measures and intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), as well as their predictive ability on ICH, are unclear. In this study, we aim to investigate the independent associations of multiple BP measures with subsequent 5-year ICH risk, as well as the incremental value of these measures over a single-point BP measurement in ICH risk prediction., Methods and Results: We included 12 398 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who completed three surveys every 4-5 years. The following long-term BP measures were calculated: mean, minimum, maximum, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, average real variability, and cumulative BP exposure (cumBP). Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations between these measures and ICH. The potential incremental value of these measures in ICH risk prediction was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI). The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of incident ICH associated with per standard deviation increase in cumulative systolic BP and cumulative diastolic BP were 1.62 (1.25-2.10) and 1.59 (1.23-2.07), respectively. When cumBP was added to the conventional 5-year ICH risk prediction model, the C-statistic change was 0.009 (-0.001, 0.019), the cNRI was 0.267 (0.070-0.464), and the rIDI was 18.2% (5.8-30.7%). Further subgroup analyses revealed a consistent increase in cNRI and rIDI in men, rural residents, and participants without diabetes. Other long-term BP measures showed no statistically significant associations with incident ICH and generally did not improve model performance., Conclusion: The nearly 10-year cumBP was positively associated with an increased 5-year risk of ICH and could significantly improve risk reclassification for the ICH risk prediction model that included single-point BP measurement., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: none declared., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Non-optimal temperature is a leading risk factor for global disease burden. Most epidemiological studies assessed only outdoor temperature, with important uncertainties on personal exposure misclassification. The CKB-Air study measured personal, household (kitchen and living room), and outdoor temperatures in the summer (MAY-SEP 2017) and winter (NOV 2017-JAN 2018) in 477 participants in China. After data cleaning, ∼88,000 person-hours of data were recorded across each microenvironment. Using multivariable linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) models, we identified key predictors and constructed personal temperature exposure prediction models. We used generalised additive mixed effect models to examine the relationships of personal and outdoor temperatures with heart rate. The 24-hour mean (SD) personal and outdoor temperatures were 29.2 (3.8) °C and 27.6 (6.4) °C in summer, and 12.0 (4.0) °C and 7.5 (4.2) °C in winter, respectively. The temperatures across microenvironments were strongly correlated (Spearman's ρ: 0.86-0.92) in summer. In winter, personal temperature was strongly related to household temperatures (ρ: 0.74-0.79) but poorly related to outdoor temperature (ρ: 0.30). RF algorithm identified household and outdoor temperatures and study date as top predictors of personal temperature exposure for both seasons, and heating-related factors were important in winter. The final MLR and RF models incorporating questionnaire and device data performed satisfactorily in predicting personal exposure in both seasons (R 2 summer : 0.92; R 2 winter : 0.68-0.70). We found consistent U-shaped associations between measured and predicted personal temperature exposures and heart rate (lowest at ∼ 14.5 °C), but a weak positive linear association with outdoor temperature. Personal and outdoor temperatures differ substantially winter, but prediction models incorporating household and outdoor temperatures and questionnaire data performed satisfactorily. Exposure misclassification from using outdoor temperature may produce inappropriate epidemiological findings., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: Infectious diseases remain a major global health concern, including in China, with an estimated >10 million cases of infectious disease in 2019. We describe the burden of site-specific infectious diseases among Chinese adults., Methods: From 2004 to 2008, the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512,726 adults aged 30-79 years from 10 diverse areas (5 rural, 5 urban) of China. During the 12 years of follow-up, 101,673 participants were hospitalized for any infectious disease. Descriptive analyses examined standardized incidence, mortality and case fatality of infections., Findings: The incidence of any infectious disease was 1856 per 100,000 person-years; respiratory tract infections (1069) were most common. The infectious disease mortality rate was 31.8 per 100,000 person-years (20.3 and 9.4 for respiratory and non-respiratory infections, respectively) and case fatality was 2.2% (2.6% and 1.6% for respiratory and non-respiratory infections, respectively). Infectious disease incidence and mortality rates were higher at older ages and in rural areas. There were no clear sex differences in infectious disease incidence rates, but mortality and case fatality rates were twice as high in men as in women., Interpretation: Infectious diseases were common in Chinese adults. The observed burden of, and disparities in, site-specific infections can inform targeted prevention efforts., Funding: Kadoorie Foundation, Wellcome Trust, MRC, BHF, CR-UK, MoST, NNSF., Competing Interests: Declarations of Competing Interest The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Little is known about the prospective association between autosomal mosaic chromosomal alterations (mCAs), a group of large-scale somatic mutations on autosomes, and bladder cancer. Here we utilized data from 99,877 participants who were free of physician-diagnosed cancer at baseline (2004-2008) of the China Kadoorie Biobank to estimate the associations between autosomal mCAs and bladder cancer (ICD-10: C67). A total of 2874 autosomal mCAs events among 2612 carriers (2.6%) were detected. After a median follow-up of 12.4 years, we discovered that participants with all autosomal mCAs exhibited higher risks of bladder cancer, with a multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 2.60 (1.44, 4.70). The estimate of such association was even stronger for mosaic loss events (HR [95% CI]: 6.68 [2.92, 15.30]), while it was not significant for CN-LOH events. Both expanded (cell fraction ≥10%) and non-expanded autosomal mCAs, as well as mosaic loss, were associated with increased risks of bladder cancer. Of interest, physical activity (PA) significantly modified the associations of autosomal mCAs and mosaic loss (P interaction  = 0.038 and 0.012, respectively) with bladder cancer. The increased risks of bladder cancer were only observed with mCAs and mosaic loss among participants with a lower level of PA (HR [95% CI]: 5.11 [2.36, 11.09] and 16.30 [6.06, 43.81]), but not among participants with a higher level of PA. Our findings suggest that peripheral leukocyte autosomal mCAs may represent a novel risk factor for bladder cancer, and PA may serve as a potential intervention target for mCAs carriers., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: There is no consensus on the cause and effect of systemic chronic inflammation (SCI) regarding chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The impact of second-hand smoke (SHS) on COPD has reached inconsistent conclusions., Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank cohort was followed up from the 2004-08 baseline survey to 31 December 2018. Among the selected 445,523 participants in the final analysis, Cox and linear regressions were performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of tobacco exposure with COPD risk and baseline levels of log-transformed inflammatory factors [βs (95% CIs)], respectively., Results: Participants were followed up for a median of 12.1 years and 11,825 incident COPD events were documented. Ever-smokers were associated with a higher risk of COPD than non-smokers with non-weekly SHS exposure. A younger age to start smoking, a greater amount of daily tobacco consumption, and deeper inhalation were associated with increased risk of COPD and correlated with elevated levels of plasma high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP, all P trend  < 0.001) even two years before COPD onset. Among former smokers, COPD risk declined with longer smoking cessation (P trend  < 0.001) and those quitting smoking for over ten years presented no difference in COPD risk and hs-CRP level from non-smokers [HR (95% CI) = 1.05 (0.89, 1.25), β (95% CI) = 0.17 (- 0.09, 0.43)]. Among non-smokers, weekly SHS exposure was associated with a slightly higher COPD risk [HR (95% CI) = 1.06 (1.01, 1.12)]., Conclusions: Incremental exposure to tobacco smoke was related to elevated SCI level before COPD onset, then an increase in COPD susceptibility. Quitting smoking as early as possible is suggested as a practical approach to reducing COPD risk in smokers. Given the high prevalence of both COPD and SHS exposure, the risk associated with SHS exposure deserves attention., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Whether adherence to a healthy lifestyle is associated with a lower risk of developing pneumonia and a better long-term prognosis remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate associations of individual and combined lifestyle factors (LFs) with the incidence risk and long-term prognosis of pneumonia hospitalization., Methods: Using data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study, we used the multistate models to investigate the role of five high-risk LFs, including smoking, excessive alcohol drinking, unhealthy dietary habits, physical inactivity, and unhealthy body shape, alone or in combination in the transitions from a generally healthy state at baseline to pneumonia hospitalization or cardiovascular disease (CVD, regarded as a reference outcome), and subsequently to mortality., Results: Most of the five high-risk LFs were associated with increased risks of transitions from baseline to pneumonia and from pneumonia to death, but with different risk estimates. The greater the number of high-risk LFs, the higher the risk of developing pneumonia and long-term mortality risk after pneumonia, with the strength of associations comparable to that of LFs and CVD. Compared to participants with 0-1 high-risk LF, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for transitions from baseline to pneumonia and from pneumonia to death in those with five high-risk LFs were 1.43 (1.28-1.60) and 1.98 (1.61-2.42), respectively. Correspondingly, the respective HRs (95% CIs) for transitions from baseline to CVD and from CVD to death were 2.00 (1.89-2.11) and 1.44 (1.30-1.59), respectively. The risk estimates changed slightly when further adjusting for the presence of major chronic diseases., Conclusion: In this Chinese population, unhealthy LFs were associated with an increased incidence and long-term mortality risk of pneumonia., (Copyright © 2024 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license.)

Background and Purpose: Previous studies, mostly focusing on the European population, have reported polygenic risk scores (PRSs) might achieve risk stratification of stroke. We aimed to examine the association strengths of PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes in the Chinese population., Methods: Participants with genome-wide genotypic data in China Kadoorie Biobank were split into a potential training set (n=22 191) and a population-based testing set (n=72 150). Four previously developed PRSs were included, and new PRSs for stroke and its subtypes were developed. The PRSs showing the strongest association with risks of stroke or its subtypes in the training set were further evaluated in the testing set. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association strengths of different PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes (ischaemic stroke (IS), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH))., Results: In the testing set, during 872 919 person-years of follow-up, 8514 incident stroke events were documented. The PRSs of any stroke (AS) and IS were both positively associated with risks of AS, IS and ICH (p<0.05). The HR for per SD increment (HR SD ) of PRS AS was 1.10 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.12), 1.10 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.12) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.20) for AS, IS and ICH, respectively. The corresponding HR SD of PRS IS was 1.08 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.11), 1.08 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.11) and 1.09 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.15). PRS ICH was positively associated with the risk of ICH (HR SD =1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.14). PRS SAH was not associated with risks of stroke and its subtypes. The addition of current PRSs offered little to no improvement in stroke risk prediction and risk stratification., Conclusions: In this Chinese population, the association strengths of current PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes were moderate, suggesting a limited value for improving risk prediction over traditional risk factors in the context of current genome-wide association study under-representing the East Asian population., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: How traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are related to long-term blood pressure change (BPC) or trajectories remain unclear. We aimed to examine the independent associations of these factors with 15-year BPC and trajectories in Chinese adults., Methods: We included 15 985 participants who had attended three surveys, including 2004-2008 baseline survey, and 2013-2014 and 2020-2021 resurveys, over 15 years in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). We measured systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP), height, weight, and waist circumference (WC). We asked about the sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle factors, including smoking, alcohol drinking, intake of fresh vegetables, fruits, and red meat, and physical activity, using a structured questionnaire. We calculated standard deviation (SD), cumulative blood pressure (cumBP), coefficient of variation (CV), and average real variability (ARV) as long-term BPC proxies. We identified blood pressure trajectories using the latent class growth model., Results: Most baseline sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics were associated with cumBP. After adjusting for other characteristics, the cumSBP (mmHg × year) increased by 116.9 [95% confidence interval (CI): 111.0, 122.7] for every 10 years of age. The differences of cumSBP in heavy drinkers of ≥60 g pure alcohol per day and former drinkers were 86.7 (60.7, 112.6) and 48.9 (23.1, 74.8) compared with less than weekly drinkers. The cumSBP in participants who ate red meat less than weekly was 29.4 (12.0, 46.8) higher than those who ate red meat daily. The corresponding differences of cumSBP were 127.8 (120.7, 134.9) and 70.2 (65.0, 75.3) for BMI per 5 kg/m 2 and WC per 10 cm. Most of the findings of other BPC measures by baseline characteristics were similar to the cumBP, but the differences between groups were somewhat weaker. Alcohol drinking was associated with several high-risk trajectories of SBP and DBP. Both BMI and WC were independently associated with all high-risk blood pressure trajectories., Conclusions: Several traditional CVD risk factors were associated with unfavorable long-term BPC or blood pressure trajectories in Chinese adults., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Elevated blood pressure (BP) is major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted predominantly in populations of European ancestry have identified >2,000 BP-associated loci, but other ancestries have been less well-studied. We conducted GWAS of systolic, diastolic, pulse, and mean arterial BP in 100,453 Chinese adults. We identified 128 non-overlapping loci associated with one or more BP traits, including 74 newly-reported associations. Despite strong genetic correlations between populations, we identified appreciably higher heritability and larger variant effect sizes in Chinese compared with European or Japanese ancestry populations. Using instruments derived from these GWAS, multivariable Mendelian randomisation demonstrated that BP traits contribute differently to the causal associations of BP with CVD. In particular, only pulse pressure was independently causally associated with carotid plaque. These findings reinforce the need for studies in diverse populations to understand the genetic determinants of BP traits and their roles in disease risk., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: In non-high-risk individuals, risk-category-based atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) screening strategies may be more cost-effective than one-size-fits-all approaches. However, current decisions are constrained by a lack of research evidence. We aimed to explore appropriate risk-category-based screening interval strategies for non-high-risk individuals in ASCVD primary prevention in the Chinese population., Methods: We used data from 28,624 participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who had completed at least two field surveys. The risk assessment tools were the 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed based on the CKB cohort. We constructed multistate Markov models to model disease progression and estimate transition probabilities between different risk categories. The total person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk state over a 10-year period were calculated for each screening interval protocol. We also estimated the number of ASCVD events prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and costs saved when compared to the 3-yearly screening protocol., Findings: When compared to the uniform 3-yearly protocol, most risk-category-based screening interval protocols would identify more high-risk individuals timely, thus preventing more ASCVD events and gaining QALYs. A few of them would reduce total health-care costs. The protocol, which used 6-year, 3-year, and 2-year screening intervals for low-risk, intermediate-low-risk, and intermediate-high risk individuals, was optimal, and would reduce the person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk category by 17.9% (95% CI: 13.1%-21.9%), thus preventing an estimated 113 thousand (95% CI: 83-138) hard ASCVD events for Chinese adults aged 30-79 over a 10-year period. When using a lower cost of statin therapy, more screening protocols would gain QALYs while saving costs., Interpretation: For the primary prevention of ASCVD, risk-category-based screening protocols outperformed the one-size-fits-all approach in the Chinese population., Funding: This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (82192904, 82388102, 82192900) and grants (2023YFC2509400) from the National Key R&D Program of China. The CKB baseline survey and the first re-survey were supported by a grant from the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation in Hong Kong. The long-term follow-up is supported by grants from the UK Wellcome Trust (212946/Z/18/Z, 202922/Z/16/Z, 104085/Z/14/Z, 088158/Z/09/Z), grants (2016YFC0900500) from the National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China (81390540, 91846303, 81941018), and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2011BAI09B01)., Competing Interests: We declare no competing interests., (© 2024 The Author(s).)

Background: The associations of early adulthood BMI with cardiovascular diseases have yet to be completely delineated. There is little reliable evidence about these associations among east Asian populations, that differ in fat distribution, disease patterns, and lifestyle factors from other populations. We aimed to study the associations between early adulthood BMI and cardiovascular diseases in a Chinese population, and the effect of midlife lifestyle factors on outcomes., Methods: In this prospective analysis, we used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank, a large and long-term cohort from five urban areas and five rural areas, using participants aged 35-70 years. The primary outcome was the incidence of cardiovascular diseases as a group, ischaemic heart disease, haemorrhagic stroke, and ischaemic stroke, which were obtained mainly through linkage to disease registries and the national database for health insurance claims. Early adulthood BMI was assessed through self-report at baseline survey. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to examine the prospective associations. We also undertook multiplicative and additive interaction analyses to investigate the potential modification effect of midlife healthy lifestyle factors (a combined score covering smoking, drinking, physical activity, and diet)., Findings: Participants were recruited for baseline survey between June, 2004, and July, 2008. During a median follow-up of 12·0 years (IQR 11·3-13·1), we documented 57 203 (15·9%) of incident cardiovascular diseases in 360 855 participants. After adjustment for potential confounders, monotonic dose-response associations were observed between higher early adulthood BMI and increased risks of incident cardiovascular diseases. Compared with an early adulthood BMI of 20·5-22·4 kg/m 2 (the reference group), the hazard ratios for a BMI of less than 18·5 kg/m 2 was 0·97 (95% CI 0·94-1·00), 18·5-20·4 kg/m 2 was 0·97 (0·95-0·99), 22·5-23·9 kg/m 2 was 1·04 (1·02-1·07), 24·0-25·9 kg/m 2 was 1·12 (1·09-1·15), 26·0-27·9 kg/m 2 was 1·19 (1·14-1·24), 28·0-29·9 kg/m 2 was 1·34 (1·25-1·44), and ≥30·0 kg/m 2 was 1·58 (1·42-1·75). Except for haemorrhagic stroke, lower early adulthood BMI (<20·5 kg/m 2 ) was associated with decreased incident cardiovascular disease risks. No significant interaction was found between midlife healthy lifestyle factors and early adulthood BMI on cardiovascular disease risks., Interpretation: Increased risks of cardiovascular disease incidence were found among participants with high early adulthood adiposity, including ischaemic heart disease, haemorrhagic stroke, and ischaemic stroke. Our findings suggest early adulthood as an important time to focus on weight management and obesity prevention for cardiovascular health later in life., Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, and the Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: This article evaluates the evolution of physical activity and health research in China through a bibliometric analysis focused on number of publications, study areas, and sex balance in authorship., Methods: A systematic review was conducted by the Global Observatory for Physical Activity for "physical activity and health" publications between 1950 and 2019. Here, we focus on the 610 Chinese publications identified, defined as those in which data collection took place in China. We assessed the number of publications, classified them into 5 areas (1) surveillance, (2) correlates and determinants, (3) health consequences, (4) interventions, and (5) policy, and analyzed female participation in authorship., Results: The first Chinese publication identified in the review was in 1990. Since, the average number of physical activity and health publications increased from one per year in the 1990s to 7.6 per year in the 2000s, and to 47 per year in the 2010s. Most publications focused on the correlates and determinants (38.7%) and the health consequences of physical activity (35.9%). Physical activity policy accounted for 2.3% of the publications. In the 1990s, 64% of the publications included at least one female author; this proportion increased to 90% in the 2010s., Conclusion: Despite a slow start, China's research on physical activity and health has grown rapidly since 2000. The distribution of publications by study areas and female participation in authorship is similar to that observed globally, with fewer publications focused on interventions and policy as compared with other topics.

Background: There is limited evidence on the associations of dietary factors and patterns with risk of later-onset ulcerative colitis (UC) in Chinese adults., Aims: To investigate the associations of dietary factors and patterns with risk of later-onset UC in Chinese., Methods: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank cohort study recruited 512,726 participants aged 30-79. Dietary habits were assessed using food frequency questionnaires. Dietary patterns were derived by factor analysis with a principal component method. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs)., Results: During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 312 cases of newly diagnosed UC were documented (median age of diagnosis 60.1 years). Egg consumption was associated with higher risk of UC (HR for daily vs. never or rarely: 2.29 [95% CI: 1.26-4.16]), while spicy food consumption was inversely associated with risk of UC (HR: 0.63 [0.45-0.88]). The traditional northern dietary pattern, characterised by high intake of wheat and low intake of rice, was associated with higher risk of UC (HR for highest vs. lowest quartile of score: 2.79 [1.93-4.05]). The modern dietary pattern, characterised by high intake of animal-origin foods and fruits, was associated with higher risk of UC (HR: 2.48 [1.63-3.78]). Population attributable fraction was 13.04% (7.71%-19.11%) for daily/almost daily consumption of eggs and 9.87% (1.94%-18.22%) for never/rarely consumption of spicy food., Conclusions: The findings highlight the importance of evaluating dietary factors and patterns in the primary prevention of later-onset UC in Chinese adults., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Despite the high prevalence of snoring in Asia, little is known about the genetic etiology of snoring and its causal relationships with cardiometabolic traits. Based on 100,626 Chinese individuals, a genome-wide association study on snoring was conducted. Four novel loci were identified for snoring traits mapped on SLC25A21, the intergenic region of WDR11 and FGFR, NAA25, ALDH2, and VTI1A, respectively. The novel loci highlighted the roles of structural abnormality of the upper airway and craniofacial region and dysfunction of metabolic and transport systems in the development of snoring. In the two-sample bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis, higher body mass index, weight, and elevated blood pressure were causal for snoring, and a reverse causal effect was observed between snoring and diastolic blood pressure. Altogether, our results revealed the possible etiology of snoring in China and indicated that managing cardiometabolic health was essential to snoring prevention, and hypertension should be considered among snorers., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Information on the association between physical activity (PA) and the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is limited. We aimed to explore the associations of total, domain-specific, and intensity-specific PA with CKD and its subtypes in China., Methods: The study included 475,376 adults from the China Kadoorie Biobank aged 30-79 years during 2004-2008 at baseline. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect the information about PA, which was quantified as metabolic equivalent of task hours per day (MET-h/day) and categorized into 4 groups based on quartiles. Cox regression was used to analyze the association between PA and CKD risk., Results: During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 5415 incident CKD cases were documented, including 1159 incident diabetic kidney disease (DKD) cases and 362 incident hypertensive nephropathy (HTN) cases. Total PA was inversely associated with CKD risk, with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR, 95% confidence interval (95%CI)) of 0.83 (0.75-0.92) for incident CKD in the highest quartile of total PA as compared with participants in the lowest quartile. Similar results were observed for risk of DKD and HTN, and the corresponding HRs (95%CIs) were 0.75 (0.58-0.97) for DKD risk and 0.56 (0.37-0.85) for HTN risk. Increased nonoccupational PA, low-intensity PA, and moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA were significantly associated with a decreased risk of CKD, with HRs (95%CIs) of 0.80 (0.73-0.88), 0.85 (0.77-0.94), and 0.85 (0.76-0.95) in the highest quartile, respectively., Conclusion: PA, including nonoccupational PA, low-intensity PA, and moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA, was inversely associated with the risk of CKD, including DKD, HTN, and other CKD, and such associations were dose dependent., (Copyright © 2023. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.)

Background: Healthy diet is essential for cardiovascular disease risk management, but its effects among Chinese patients, whose diets differ from Western diets, remain largely unknown., Methods: In this multicenter, patient- and outcome assessor-blind, randomized controlled feeding trial, 265 Chinese adults with baseline systolic blood pressure 130 to 159 mmHg were randomly assigned into Chinese heart-healthy (CHH) diet or usual diet for a 28-d intervention after a 7-d run-in period on usual diet. Blood lipids and glucose were measured from overnight fasting blood samples before and after the intervention. Ten-year cardiovascular disease risk was estimated using models previously developed and validated in Chinese. The changes in secondary outcomes of serum total cholesterol (TC), blood glucose, and 10-y cardiovascular disease risk over the intervention period were compared between intervention groups, adjusting for center, among participants with baseline and follow-up blood samples available. Sensitivity analyses were done with further adjustment for baseline values and covariables; missing data imputed; and among per-protocol population., Results: Among 256 eligible participants (130 on CHH diet, 126 on control diet), 42% had hypercholesterolemia and 15% had diabetes at baseline. In the control group, TC and 10-y cardiovascular disease risk decreased after the intervention by 0.16 mmol/L and 0.91%, respectively, but blood glucose increased by 0.25 mmol/L. Compared with usual diet, the CHH diet lowered TC (-0.14 mmol/L, P = 0.017) and 10-y cardiovascular disease risk (-1.24%, P = 0.001) further. No effect on blood glucose was found. All sensitivity analyses confirmed the results on TC and 10-y cardiovascular disease risk, and analysis with multiple variables adjusted showed a borderline significant effect on blood glucose (-0.17 mmol/L, P = 0.051). The differences in intake of nutrients and food groups between intervention groups explained the results., Conclusions: The CHH diet reduced TC and 10-y cardiovascular disease risk and was likely to reduce blood glucose among Chinese adults with mild hypertension. Further studies with longer terms are warranted. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03882645., (Copyright © 2023 American Society for Nutrition. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with higher risk of pancreatic cancer (PC), but the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood., Methods: We conducted a case-subcohort study involving 610 PC cases and 623 subcohort participants with 92 protein biomarkers measured in baseline plasma samples. Genetically-instrumented T2D was derived using 86 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), including insulin resistance (IR) SNPs., Results: In observational analyses of 623 subcohort participants (mean age, 52 years; 61% women), T2D was positively associated with 13 proteins (SD difference: IL6: 0.52 [0.23-0.81]; IL10: 0.41 [0.12-0.70]), of which 8 were nominally associated with incident PC. The 8 proteins potentially mediated 36.9% (18.7-75.0%) of the association between T2D and PC. In MR, no associations were observed for genetically-determined T2D with proteins, but there were positive associations of genetically-determined IR with IL6 and IL10 (SD difference: 1.23 [0.05-2.41] and 1.28 [0.31-2.24]). In two-sample MR, fasting insulin was associated with both IL6 and PC, but no association was observed between IL6 and PC., Conclusions: Proteomics were likely to explain the association between T2D and PC, but were not causal mediators. Elevated fasting insulin driven by insulin resistance might explain the associations of T2D, proteomics, and PC., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Introduction: Cohort evidence of the association of diabetes mellitus (DM) with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is limited. Previous studies often describe patients with kidney disease and diabetes as diabetic kidney disease (DKD) or CKD, ignoring other subtypes. The present study aimed to assess the prospective association of diabetes status (no diabetes, pre-diabetes, screened diabetes, previously diagnosed controlled/uncontrolled diabetes with/without antidiabetic treatment) and random plasma glucose (RPG) with CKD risk (including CKD subtypes) among Chinese adults., Research Design and Methods: The present study included 472 545 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank, using baseline information on diabetes and RPG. The incident CKD and its subtypes were collected through linkage with the national health insurance system during follow-up. Cox regression models were used to calculate the HR and 95% CI., Results: During 11.8 years of mean follow-up, 5417 adults developed CKD. Screened plus previously diagnosed diabetes was positively associated with CKD (HR=4.52, 95% CI 4.23 to 4.83), DKD (HR=33.85, 95% CI 29.56 to 38.76), and glomerulonephritis (HR=1.66, 95% CI 1.40 to 1.97). In those with previously diagnosed diabetes, participants with uncontrolled diabetes represented higher risks of CKD, DKD, and glomerulonephritis compared with those with controlled RPG. The risk of DKD was found to rise in participants with pre-diabetes and increased with the elevated RPG level, even in those without diabetes., Conclusions: Among Chinese adults, diabetes was positively associated with CKD, DKD, and glomerulonephritis. Screen-detected and uncontrolled DM had a high risk of CKD, and pre-diabetes was associated with a greater risk of DKD, highlighting the significance of lifelong glycemic management., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Previous observational studies established a positive relationship between snoring and stroke. We aimed to investigate the causal effect of snoring on stroke., Methods: Based on 82,339 unrelated individuals with qualified genotyping data of Asian descent from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of snoring and stroke. Genetic variants identified in the genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) of snoring in CKB and UK Biobank (UKB) were selected for constructing genetic risk scores (GRS). A two-stage method was applied to estimate the associations of the genetically predicted snoring with stroke and its subtypes. Besides, MR analysis among the non-obese group (body mass index, BMI <24.0 kg/m 2 ), as well as multivariable MR (MVMR), were performed to control for potential pleiotropy from BMI. In addition, the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method was applied to estimate the causal association with genetic variants identified in CKB GWAS., Findings: Positive associations were found between snoring and total stroke, hemorrhagic stroke (HS), and ischemic stroke (IS). With GRS of CKB, the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) were 1.56 (1.15, 2.12), 1.50 (0.84, 2.69), 2.02 (1.36, 3.01), and the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) using GRS of UKB were 1.78 (1.30, 2.43), 1.94 (1.07, 3.52), and 1.74 (1.16, 2.61). The associations remained stable in the MR among the non-obese group, MVMR analysis, and MR analysis using the IVW method., Interpretation: This study suggests that, among Chinese adults, genetically predicted snoring could increase the risk of total stroke, IS, and HS, and the causal effect was independent of BMI., Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation Hong Kong, UK Wellcome Trust, National Key R&D Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology., Competing Interests: The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose., (© 2023 The Author(s).)

Sharing of genetic elements among different pathogens and commensals inhabiting same hosts and environments has significant implications for antimicrobial resistance (AMR), especially in settings with high antimicrobial exposure. We analysed 661 Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica isolates collected within and across hosts and environments, in 10 Chinese chicken farms over 2.5 years using data-mining methods. Most isolates within same hosts possessed the same clinically relevant AMR-carrying mobile genetic elements (plasmids: 70.6%, transposons: 78%), which also showed recent common evolution. Supervised machine learning classifiers revealed known and novel AMR-associated mutations and genes underlying resistance to 28 antimicrobials, primarily associated with resistance in E. coli and susceptibility in S. enterica. Many were essential and affected same metabolic processes in both species, albeit with varying degrees of phylogenetic penetration. Multi-modal strategies are crucial to investigate the interplay of mobilome, resistance and metabolism in cohabiting bacteria, especially in ecological settings where community-driven resistance selection occurs., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objective: There is little evidence on the genetic associations between life-course adiposity (including birth weight, childhood BMI, and adulthood BMI) and severe liver disease (SLD; including cirrhosis and liver cancer). The current study aimed to examine and contrast these associations., Methods: Genetic variants were obtained from genome-wide association studies. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were performed to assess the genetic associations of life-course adiposity with SLD and liver biomarkers. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios for SLD associated with genetic risk scores of life-course adiposity and adulthood weight change in the China Kadoorie Biobank., Results: In observational analyses, genetic predispositions to childhood adiposity and adulthood adiposity were each associated with SLD. There was a U-shaped association between adulthood weight change and risk of SLD. In meta-analyses of MR results, genetically predicted 1-standard deviation increase in birth weight was inversely associated with SLD at a marginal significance (odds ratio: 0.81 [95% CI: 0.65-1.00]), whereas genetically predicted 1-standard deviation higher childhood BMI and adulthood BMI were positively associated with SLD (odds ratio: 1.27 [95% CI: 1.05-1.55] and 1.79 [95% CI: 1.59-2.01], respectively). The results of liver biomarkers mirrored those of SLD., Conclusions: The current study provided genetic evidence on the associations between life-course adiposity and SLD., (© 2023 The Obesity Society.)

Background: Genetic variants that affect alcohol use in East Asian populations could help assess the causal effects of alcohol consumption on cause-specific mortality. We aimed to investigate the associations between alcohol intake and cause-specific mortality using conventional and genetic epidemiological methods among more than 512 000 adults in China., Methods: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank cohort study enrolled 512 724 adults (210 205 men and 302 519 women) aged 30-79 years, during 2004-08. Residents with no major disabilities from ten diverse urban and rural areas of China were invited to participate, and alcohol use was self-reported. During 12 years of follow-up, 56 550 deaths were recorded through linkage to death registries, including 23 457 deaths among 168 050 participants genotyped for ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for cause-specific mortality by self-reported and genotype-predicted alcohol intake were estimated using Cox regression., Findings: 33% of men drank alcohol most weeks. In conventional observational analyses, ex-drinkers, non-drinkers, and heavy drinkers had higher risks of death from most major causes than moderate drinkers. Among current drinkers, each 100 g/week higher alcohol intake was associated with higher mortality risks from cancers (HR 1·18 [95% CI 1·14-1·22]), cardiovascular disease (CVD; HR 1·19 [1·15-1·24]), liver diseases (HR 1·51 [1·27-1·78]), non-medical causes (HR 1·15 [1·08-1·23]), and all causes (HR 1·18 [1·15-1·20]). In men, ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984 genotypes predicted 60-fold differences in mean alcohol intake (4 g/week in the lowest group vs 255 g/week in the highest). Genotype-predicted alcohol intake was uniformly and positively associated with risks of death from all causes (n=12 939; HR 1·07 [95% CI 1·05-1·10]) and from pre-defined alcohol-related cancers (n=1274; 1·12 [1·04-1·21]), liver diseases (n=110; 1·31 [1·02-1·69]), and CVD (n=6109; 1·15 [1·10-1·19]), chiefly due to stroke (n=3285; 1·18 [1·12-1·24]) rather than ischaemic heart disease (n=2363; 1·06 [0·99-1·14]). Results were largely consistent using a polygenic score to predict alcohol intake, with higher intakes associated with higher risks of death from alcohol-related cancers, CVD, and all causes. Approximately 2% of women were current drinkers, and although power was low to assess observational associations of alcohol with mortality, the genetic evidence suggested that the excess risks in men were due to alcohol, not pleiotropy., Interpretation: Higher alcohol intake increased the risks of death overall and from major diseases for men in China. There was no genetic evidence of protection from moderate drinking for all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including CVD., Funding: Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, National Natural Science Foundation of China, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, GlaxoSmithKline, Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Movement behaviours, including physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and sleep have been shown to be associated with several chronic diseases. However, they have not been objectively measured in large-scale prospective cohort studies in low-and middle-income countries. We aim to describe the patterns of device-measured movement behaviours collected in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study., Methods: During 2020 and 2021, a random subset of 25,087 surviving CKB individuals participated in the 3 rd resurvey of the CKB. Among them, 22,511 (89.7%) agreed to wear an Axivity AX3 wrist-worn triaxial accelerometer for seven consecutive days to assess their habitual movement behaviours. We developed a machine-learning model to infer time spent in four movement behaviours [i.e. sleep, sedentary behaviour, light intensity physical activity (LIPA), and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA)]. Descriptive analyses were performed for wear-time compliance and patterns of movement behaviours by different participant characteristics., Results: Data from 21,897 participants (aged 65.4 ± 9.1 years; 35.4% men) were received for demographic and wear-time analysis, with a median wear-time of 6.9 days (IQR: 6.1-7.0). Among them, 20,370 eligible participants were included in movement behavior analyses. On average, they had 31.1 mg/day (total acceleration) overall activity level, accumulated 7.7 h/day (32.3%) of sleep time, 8.8 h/day (36.6%) sedentary, 5.7 h/day (23.9%) in light physical activity, and 104.4 min/day (7.2%) in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. There was an inverse relationship between age and overall acceleration with an observed decline of 5.4 mg/day (17.4%) per additional decade. Women showed a higher activity level than men (32.3 vs 28.8 mg/day) and there was a marked geographical disparity in the overall activity level and time allocation., Conclusions: This is the first large-scale accelerometer data collected among Chinese adults, which provides rich and comprehensive information about device-measured movement behaviour patterns. This resource will enhance our knowledge about the potential relevance of different movement behaviours for chronic disease in Chinese adults., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: A comprehensive depiction of long-term health impacts of marital status is lacking., Methods: Sex-stratified phenome-wide association analyses (PheWAS) of marital status (living with vs. without a spouse) were performed using baseline (2004-2008) and follow-up information (ICD10-coded events till Dec 31, 2017) from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) to evaluate the associations of marital status with morbidity risks of phenome-wide significant diseases or sex-specific top-10 death causes in China documented in 2017. Additionally, the association between marital status and mortality risks among participants with major chronic diseases at baseline was assessed., Findings: During up to 11.1 years of the median follow-up period, 1,946,380 incident health events were recorded among 210,202 men and 302,521 women aged 30-79. Marital status was found to have phenome-wide significant associations with thirteen diseases among men ( p  < 9.92 × 10 -5 ) and nine diseases among women ( p  < 9.33 × 10 -5 ), respectively. After adjusting for all disease-specific covariates in the final model, participants living without a spouse showed increased risks of schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders (aHR [95% CI]: 2.55, [1.83-3.56] for men; 1.49, [1.13-1.97] for women) compared with their counterparts. Additional higher risks in overall mental and behavioural disorder (1.31, 1.13-1.53), cardiovascular disease (1.07, 1.04-1.10) and cancer (1.06, 1.00-1.12) were only observed among men without a spouse, whereas women living without a spouse were at lower risks of developing genitourinary diseases (0.89, 0.85-0.93) and injury & poisoning (0.93, 0.88-0.97). Among 282,810 participants with major chronic diseases at baseline, 39,166 deaths were recorded. Increased mortality risks for those without a spouse were observed in 12 of 21 diseases among male patients and one of 23 among female patients. For patients with any self-reported disease at baseline, compared with those living with a spouse, the aHRs (95% CIs) of mortality risk were 1.29 (1.24-1.34) and 1.04 (1.00-1.07) among men and women without a spouse ( p interaction <0.0001), respectively., Interpretation: Long-term associations of marital status with morbidity and mortality risks are diverse among middle-aged Chinese adults, and the adverse impacts due to living without a spouse are more profound among men. Marital status may be an influential factor for health needs., Funding: The National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, the National Key R&D Program of China, the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, and the UK Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: All the authors have indicated they have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Background: Several studies have reported that polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can enhance risk prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) in European populations. However, research on this topic is far from sufficient in non-European countries, including China. We aimed to evaluate the potential of PRS for predicting CAD for primary prevention in the Chinese population., Methods: Participants with genome-wide genotypic data from the China Kadoorie Biobank were divided into training ( n = 28,490) and testing sets ( n = 72,150). Ten previously developed PRSs were evaluated, and new ones were developed using clumping and thresholding or LDpred method. The PRS showing the strongest association with CAD in the training set was selected to further evaluate its effects on improving the traditional CAD risk-prediction model in the testing set. Genetic risk was computed by summing the product of the weights and allele dosages across genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Prediction of the 10-year first CAD events was assessed using hazard ratios (HRs) and measures of model discrimination, calibration, and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Hard CAD (nonfatal I21-I23 and fatal I20-I25) and soft CAD (all fatal or nonfatal I20-I25) were analyzed separately., Results: In the testing set, 1214 hard and 7201 soft CAD cases were documented during a mean follow-up of 11.2 years. The HR per standard deviation of the optimal PRS was 1.26 (95% CI:1.19-1.33) for hard CAD. Based on a traditional CAD risk prediction model containing only non-laboratory-based information, the addition of PRS for hard CAD increased Harrell's C index by 0.001 (-0.001 to 0.003) in women and 0.003 (0.001 to 0.005) in men. Among the different high-risk thresholds ranging from 1% to 10%, the highest categorical NRI was 3.2% (95% CI: 0.4-6.0%) at a high-risk threshold of 10.0% in women. The association of the PRS with soft CAD was much weaker than with hard CAD, leading to minimal or no improvement in the soft CAD model., Conclusions: In this Chinese population sample, the current PRSs minimally changed risk discrimination and offered little improvement in risk stratification for soft CAD. Therefore, this may not be suitable for promoting genetic screening in the general Chinese population to improve CAD risk prediction., (Copyright © 2023 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license.)

Background: Existing evidence suggests that fruit consumption is a significant influencing factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but this is unclear in the Chinese population. We examined the association of fresh fruit consumption with the risk of COPD-related hospitalization and death in a nationwide, population-based prospective cohort from China., Methods: Between 2004 and 2008, the China Kadoorie Biobank recruited >0.5 million adults aged 30 to 79 years from ten diverse regions across China. After excluding individuals diagnosed with major chronic diseases and prevalent COPD, the prospective analysis included 421,428 participants. Cox regression was used to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between fresh fruit consumption and risk of COPD-related hospitalization and death, with adjustment for established and potential confounders., Results: During a mean follow-up of 10.9 years, 11,292 COPD hospitalization events and deaths were documented, with an overall incidence rate of 2.47/1000 person-years. Participants who consumed fresh fruit daily had a 22% lower risk of COPD-related hospitalization and death compared with non-consumers (HR = 0.78, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71-0.87). The inverse association between fresh fruit consumption and COPD-related hospitalization and death was stronger among non-current smokers and participants with normal body mass index (BMI) (18.5 kg/m 2 ≤ BMI < 24.0 kg/m 2 ); the corresponding HRs for daily fresh fruit consumption were 0.78 (95% CI: 0.68-0.89) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.59-0.79) compared with their counterparts, respectively., Conclusions: High-frequency fruit consumption was associated with a lower risk of COPD in Chinese adults. Increasing fruit consumption, together with cigarette cessation and weight control, should be considered in the prevention and management of COPD., (Copyright © 2023 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license.)

Objective: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is caused by both genetic and cardiometabolic risk factors. However, the magnitude of the genetic predisposition of T2D in the Chinese population remains largely unknown., Methods: This study included 93,488 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank, and multiple polygenic risk scores (PRS) were calculated. A common cardiometabolic risk score (CRS) using smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, diet, obesity, blood pressure, and blood lipids was constructed to investigate the effects of cardiometabolic risk factors on T2D. Furthermore, an equation based on ideal PRS, CRS, and their interaction was established to explore the combined effects on T2D., Results: An ideally fitting PRS model (variance explained, R 2  = 7.6%) was reached based on multiple PRS calculation methods. An additive interaction between PRS and CRS (coefficient = 28%, 95% CI: 0.20-0.36, p < 0.001) was found. The R 2 of the T2D predictive model could increase to 8.3% when CRS and the interaction terms of PRS × CRS were considered. In the etiological composition of T2D, the ratio of genetic risk effect, cardiometabolic risk effect, and interaction between genetic and cardiometabolic factors was 67:16:17., Conclusions: This study identified an ideally fitting PRS model for identifying and predicting the risk of T2D suitable for the Chinese population. The quantified proportional structure of genetic risk factors, cardiometabolic risk factors, and their interaction was detected, which elucidated the critical effect of genetic factors., (© 2023 The Obesity Society.)

Adiposity is associated with multiple diseases and traits, but little is known about the causal relevance and mechanisms underlying these associations. Large-scale proteomic profiling, especially when integrated with genetic data, can clarify mechanisms linking adiposity with disease outcomes. We examined the associations of adiposity with plasma levels of 1463 proteins in 3977 Chinese adults, using measured and genetically-instrumented BMI. We further used two-sample bi-directional MR analyses to assess if certain proteins influenced adiposity, along with other (e.g. enrichment) analyses to clarify possible mechanisms underlying the observed associations. Overall, the mean (SD) baseline BMI was 23.9 (3.3) kg/m 2 , with only 6% being obese (i.e. BMI ≥ 30 kg/m 2 ). Measured and genetically-instrumented BMI was significantly associated at FDR < 0.05 with levels of 1096 (positive/inverse: 826/270) and 307 (positive/inverse: 270/37) proteins, respectively, with FABP4, LEP, IL1RN, LSP1, GOLM2, TNFRSF6B, and ADAMTS15 showing the strongest positive and PON3, NCAN, LEPR, IGFBP2 and MOG showing the strongest inverse genetic associations. These associations were largely linear, in adiposity-to-protein direction, and replicated (> 90%) in Europeans of UKB (mean BMI 27.4 kg/m 2 ). Enrichment analyses of the top > 50 BMI-associated proteins demonstrated their involvement in atherosclerosis, lipid metabolism, tumour progression and inflammation. Two-sample bi-directional MR analyses using cis-pQTLs identified in CKB GWAS found eight proteins (ITIH3, LRP11, SCAMP3, NUDT5, OGN, EFEMP1, TXNDC15, PRDX6) significantly affect levels of BMI, with NUDT5 also showing bi-directional association. The findings among relatively lean Chinese adults identified novel pathways by which adiposity may increase disease risks and novel potential targets for treatment of obesity and obesity-related diseases., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: There is uncertainty about the optimum sleep duration for risk of different subtypes of stroke and ischaemic heart disease., Methods: The present analyses involved 409,156 adults in the China Kadoorie Biobank study without a prior history of coronary heart disease or stroke or insomnia symptoms. The mean age of study participants was 52 years and 59% were women. Self-reported sleep duration including daytime napping was recorded using a questionnaire. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for disease outcomes associated with sleep duration were estimated by Cox proportional hazards after adjustment for confounding factors., Results: The overall mean (SD) sleep duration was 7.4 (1.4) hours. The associations of sleep duration with CVD types were U-shaped, with individuals reporting 7-8 h of sleep having the lowest risks. Compared with those who typically slept 7-8 h, individuals with very short sleep duration (≤ 5 h) had adjusted HRs of 1.10 (95% CI 1.04-1.16), 1.07 (1.01-1.13), 1.19 (1.06-1.33) and 1.23 (1.10-1.37) for total stroke, ischaemic stroke (IS), Intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and major coronary events (MCE), respectively. Likewise, individuals with very long sleep duration (≥ 10 h) had HRs of 1.12 (1.07-1.17), 1.08 (1.03-1.14), 1.23 (1.12-1.35) and 1.22 (1.10-1.34) for the same diseases, respectively, with little differences by sex and age. The patterns were similar for all-cause mortality., Conclusions: While abnormal sleep duration (≤ 6 h or ≥ 9 h) was associated with higher risks of CVD, the risks were more extreme for those reporting ≤ 5 or ≥ 10 h, respectively and such individuals should be prioritised for more intensive treatment for CVD prevention., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Background: Severe liver disease (SLD), including cirrhosis and liver cancer, constitutes a major disease burden in China. We aimed to examine the association of genetic and healthy lifestyle factors with the incidence and prognosis of SLD., Methods: The study population included 504,009 participants from the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank aged 30-79 years. The individuals were from 10 diverse areas in China without a history of cancer or liver disease at baseline. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident SLD and death after SLD diagnosis associated with healthy lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol, physical activity, and central adiposity). Additionally, the contribution of genetic risk for hepatitis B virus (HBV, assessed by genetic variants in major histocompatibility complex, class II, DP/DQ [ HLA - DP / DQ ] genes) was also estimated., Results: Compared with those with 0-1 healthy lifestyle factor, participants with 2, 3, and 4 factors had 12% (HR 0.88 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85, 0.92]), 26% (HR 0.74 [95%CI: 0.69, 0.79]), and 44% (HR 0.56 [95%CI: 0.48, 0.65]) lower risks of SLD, respectively. Inverse associations were observed among participants with both low and high genetic risks (HR per 1-point increase 0.83 [95%CI: 0.74, 0.94] and 0.91 [95%CI: 0.82, 1.02], respectively; Pinteraction = 0.51), although with a non-significant trend among those with a high genetic risk. Inverse associations were also observed between healthy lifestyle factors and liver biomarkers regardless of the genetic risk. Despite the limited power, healthy lifestyle factors were associated with a lower risk of death after incident SLD among participants with a low genetic risk (HR 0.59 [95%CI: 0.37, 0.96])., Conclusions: Lifestyle modification may be beneficial in terms of lowering the risk of SLD regardless of the genetic risk. Moreover, it is also important for improving the prognosis of SLD in individuals with a low genetic risk. Future studies are warranted to examine the impact of healthy lifestyles on SLD prognosis, particularly among individuals with a high genetic risk., (Copyright © 2023 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license.)

China is the largest global consumer of antimicrobials and improving surveillance methods could help to reduce antimicrobial resistance (AMR) spread. Here we report the surveillance of ten large-scale chicken farms and four connected abattoirs in three Chinese provinces over 2.5 years. Using a data mining approach based on machine learning, we analysed 461 microbiomes from birds, carcasses and environments, identifying 145 potentially mobile antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) shared between chickens and environments across all farms. A core set of 233 ARGs and 186 microbial species extracted from the chicken gut microbiome correlated with the AMR profiles of Escherichia coli colonizing the same gut, including Arcobacter, Acinetobacter and Sphingobacterium, clinically relevant for humans, and 38 clinically relevant ARGs. Temperature and humidity in the barns were also correlated with ARG presence. We reveal an intricate network of correlations between environments, microbial communities and AMR, suggesting multiple routes to improving AMR surveillance in livestock production., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background & Aims: Evidence is sparse and inconclusive on the association between long-term fine (≤2.5 μm) particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) exposure and esophageal cancer. We aimed to assess the association of PM 2.5 with esophageal cancer risk and compared the esophageal cancer risk attributable to PM 2.5 exposure and other established risk factors., Methods: This study included 510,125 participants without esophageal cancer at baseline from China Kadoorie Biobank. A high-resolution (1 × 1 km) satellite-based model was used to estimate PM 2.5 exposure during the study period. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs of PM 2.5 with esophageal cancer incidence were estimated using Cox proportional hazard model. Population attributable fractions for PM 2.5 and other established risk factors were estimated., Results: There was a linear concentration-response relationship between long-term PM 2.5 exposure and esophageal cancer. For each 10-μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 , the HR was 1.16 (95% CI, 1.04-1.30) for esophageal cancer incidence. Compared with the first quarter of PM 2.5 exposure, participants in the highest quarter had a 1.32-fold higher risk for esophageal cancer, with an HR of 1.32 (95% CI, 1.01-1.72). The population attributable risk because of annual average PM 2.5 concentration ≥35 μg/m 3 was 23.3% (95% CI, 6.6%-40.0%), higher than the risks attributable to lifestyle risk factors., Conclusions: This large prospective cohort study of Chinese adults found that long-term exposure to PM 2.5 was associated with an elevated risk of esophageal cancer. With stringent air pollution mitigation measures in China, a large reduction in the esophageal cancer disease burden can be expected., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The association of incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) with mortality risk is rarely studied, and neither are the durations of cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs). Whether the association patterns of CMD durations with mortality change as individuals progress from one CMD to CMM is unclear., Methods: Data from China Kadoorie Biobank of 512,720 participants aged 30-79 was used. CMM was defined as the simultaneous presence of two or more CMDs of interest, including diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the duration-dependent associations of CMDs and CMM with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. All information on exposures of interest was updated during follow-up., Results: During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 99,770 participants experienced at least one incident CMD, and 56,549 deaths were documented. Among 463,178 participants free of three CMDs at baseline, compared with no CMD during follow-up, the adjusted HRs (95% CIs) between CMM and all-cause mortality, mortality from circulatory system diseases, respiratory system diseases, cancer, and other causes were 2.93 (2.80-3.07), 5.05 (4.74-5.37), 2.72 (2.35-3.14), 1.30 (1.16-1.45), and 2.30 (2.02-2.61), respectively. All CMDs exhibited a high mortality risk in the first year of diagnosis. Subsequently, with prolonged disease duration, mortality risk increased for diabetes, decreased for IHD, and sustained at a high level for stroke. With the presence of CMM, the above association estimates inflated, but the pattern of which remained., Conclusion: Among Chinese adults, mortality risk increased with the number of the CMDs and changed with prolonged disease duration, the patterns of which varied among the three CMDs., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Alcohol consumption accounts for ~3 million annual deaths worldwide, but uncertainty persists about its relationships with many diseases. We investigated the associations of alcohol consumption with 207 diseases in the 12-year China Kadoorie Biobank of >512,000 adults (41% men), including 168,050 genotyped for ALDH2- rs671 and ADH1B- rs1229984 , with >1.1 million ICD-10 coded hospitalized events. At baseline, 33% of men drank alcohol regularly. Among men, alcohol intake was positively associated with 61 diseases, including 33 not defined by the World Health Organization as alcohol-related, such as cataract (n = 2,028; hazard ratio 1.21; 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.33, per 280 g per week) and gout (n = 402; 1.57, 1.33-1.86). Genotype-predicted mean alcohol intake was positively associated with established (n = 28,564; 1.14, 1.09-1.20) and new alcohol-associated (n = 16,138; 1.06, 1.01-1.12) diseases, and with specific diseases such as liver cirrhosis (n = 499; 2.30, 1.58-3.35), stroke (n = 12,176; 1.38, 1.27-1.49) and gout (n = 338; 2.33, 1.49-3.62), but not ischemic heart disease (n = 8,408; 1.04, 0.94-1.14). Among women, 2% drank alcohol resulting in low power to assess associations of self-reported alcohol intake with disease risks, but genetic findings in women suggested the excess male risks were not due to pleiotropic genotypic effects. Among Chinese men, alcohol consumption increased multiple disease risks, highlighting the need to strengthen preventive measures to reduce alcohol intake., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Objective: The aim of this study was to simultaneously explore the associations of major dietary patterns (DP) with lipid profiles and the associations of these profiles with general and central obesity risks and to evaluate the extent to which the metabolites mediate such associations., Methods: Habitual food consumption of 4778 participants with an average age of 47.0 from the China Kadoorie Biobank was collected using a 12-item food frequency questionnaire. Plasma samples were analyzed via targeted nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to quantify 129 lipid-related metabolites. Anthropometric information was measured by trained staff., Results: Two DPs were derived by factor analysis. The newly affluent southern pattern was characterized by high intakes of rice, meat, poultry, and fish, whereas the balanced pattern was characterized by consuming meat, poultry, fish, fresh fruit, fresh vegetables, dairy, eggs, and soybean. The newly affluent southern pattern was positively associated with 45 metabolites, which were positively associated with risks of obesity at the same time. The global lipid profile potentially explained 30.9%, 34.7%, and 53.1% of the effects of this DP on general obesity, waist circumference-defined central obesity, and waist-hip ratio-defined central obesity, respectively., Conclusions: The newly affluent southern pattern points to an altered lipid profile, which showed higher general and central obesity risks. These findings partly suggest the biological mechanism for the obesogenic effects of this DP., (© 2023 The Authors. Obesity published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Obesity Society.)

Objective: To validate the World Health Organization (WHO) non-laboratory-based cardiovascular disease risk prediction model in regions of China., Methods: We performed an external validation of the WHO model for East Asia using the data set of China Kadoorie Biobank, an ongoing cohort study with 512 725 participants recruited from 10 regions of China from 2004-2008. We also recalculated the recalibration parameters for the WHO model in each region and evaluated the predictive performance of the model before and after recalibration. We assessed discrimination performance by Harrell's C index., Findings: We included 412 225 participants aged 40-79 years. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 58 035 and 41 262 incident cardiovascular disease cases were recorded in women and men, respectively. Harrell's C of the WHO model was 0.682 in women and 0.700 in men but varied among regions. The WHO model underestimated the 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in most regions. After recalibration in each region, discrimination and calibration were both improved in the overall population. Harrell's C increased from 0.674 to 0.749 in women and from 0.698 to 0.753 in men. The ratios of predicted to observed cases before and after recalibration were 0.189 and 1.027 in women and 0.543 and 1.089 in men., Conclusion: The WHO model for East Asia yielded moderate discrimination for cardiovascular disease in the Chinese population and had limited prediction for cardiovascular disease risk in different regions in China. Recalibration for diverse regions greatly improved discrimination and calibration in the overall population., ((c) 2023 The authors; licensee World Health Organization.)

There is a paucity of high-quality evidence on the effectiveness and safety of salt reduction strategies, particularly for older people, who have the most to benefit but are at higher risk of adverse effects. Here, we conducted a clinical trial in which 48 residential elderly care facilities in China (1,612 participants including 1,230 men and 382 women, 55 years or older) were cluster-randomized using a 2 × 2 factorial design to provision of salt substitute (62.5% NaCl and 25% KCl) versus usual salt and to a progressively restricted versus usual supply of salt or salt substitute for 2 years. Salt substitute compared with usual salt lowered systolic blood pressure (-7.1 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI) -10.5 to -3.8), meeting the primary outcome of the trial, whereas restricted supply compared with usual supply of salt or salt substitute had no effect on systolic blood pressure. Salt substitute also lowered diastolic blood pressure (-1.9 mmHg, 95% CI -3.6 to -0.2) and resulted in fewer cardiovascular events (hazard ratio (HR) 0.60, 95% CI 0.38-0.96), but had no effect on total mortality (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.63-1.13). From a safety standpoint, salt substitute increased mean serum potassium and led to more frequent biochemical hyperkalemia, but was not associated with adverse clinical outcomes. In contrast, salt restriction had no effect on any study outcome. The results of this trial indicate that use of salt substitute, but not efforts to restrict salt supply, may achieve blood pressure lowering and deliver health benefits to residents of elderly care facilities in China. Clinicaltrials.gov registration: NCT03290716., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature America, Inc.)

Background: Increased physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, but outdoor physical activity can be accompanied by increased inhalation of fine particulate matter (PM 2·5 ). The extent to which long-term exposure to PM 2·5 can offset the cardiovascular benefits of physical activity is unknown. We aimed to evaluate whether the associations between active commuting or farming activity and incident risks of cerebrovascular disease and ischaemic heart disease were consistent between populations with different ambient PM 2·5 exposures., Methods: We did a prospective cohort study using data from people aged 30-79 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). Active commuting and farming activity were assessed at baseline using questionnaires. A high-resolution (1 × 1 km) satellite-based model was used to estimate annual average PM 2·5 exposure during the study period. Participants were stratified according to PM 2·5 exposure (54 μg/m 3 or greater vs less than 54 μg/m 3 ). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for incident cerebrovascular disease and ischaemic heart disease by active commuting and farming activity were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Effect modifications by PM 2·5 exposure were tested by likelihood ratio tests. Analyses were restricted to the period from Jan 1, 2005, to Dec 31, 2017., Findings: Between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008, 512 725 people were enrolled in the CKB cohort. 322 399 eligible participants completed the baseline survey and were included in the analysis of active commuting (118 274 non-farmers and 204 125 farmers). Among 204 125 farmers, 2985 reported no farming time and 201 140 were included in the farming activity analysis. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 39 514 cerebrovascular disease cases and 22 313 ischaemic heart disease cases were newly identified. Among non-farmers with exposure to annual average PM 2·5 concentrations of less than 54 μg/m 3 , increased active commuting was associated with lower risks of cerebrovascular disease (highest active commuting vs lowest active commuting HR 0·70, 95% CI 0·65-0·76) and ischaemic heart disease (0·60, 0·54-0·66). However, among non-farmers with exposure to annual average PM 2·5 concentrations of 54 μg/m 3 or greater, there was no association between active commuting and cerebrovascular disease or ischaemic heart disease. Among farmers with exposure to annual average PM 2·5 concentrations of less than 54 μg/m 3 , increased active commuting (highest active commuting vs lowest active commuting HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·63-0·93) and increased farming activity (highest activity vs lowest activity HR 0·85, 95% CI 0·79-0·92) were both associated with a lower cerebrovascular disease risk. However, among farmers with exposure to annual average PM 2·5 concentrations of 54 μg/m 3 or greater, increases in active commuting (highest active commuting vs lowest active commuting HR 1·12, 95% CI 1·05-1·19) and farming activity (highest activity vs lowest activity HR 1·18, 95% CI 1·09-1·28) were associated with an elevated cerebrovascular disease risk. The above associations differed significantly between PM 2·5 strata (all interaction p values <0·0001)., Interpretation: For participants with long-term exposure to higher ambient PM 2·5 concentrations, the cardiovascular benefits of active commuting and farming activity were significantly attenuated. Higher levels of active commuting and farming activity even increased the cerebrovascular disease risk among farmers with exposure to annual average PM 2·5 concentrations of 54 μg/m 3 or greater., Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key Research and Development Program of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, UK Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: DNA methylation clocks emerged as a tool to determine biological aging and have been related to mortality and age-related diseases. Little is known about the association of DNA methylation age (DNAm age) with coronary heart disease (CHD), especially in the Asian population., Results: Methylation level of baseline blood leukocyte DNA was measured by Infinium Methylation EPIC BeadChip for 491 incident CHD cases and 489 controls in the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank. We calculated the methylation age using a prediction model developed among Chinese. The correlation between chronological age and DNAm age was 0.90. DNA methylation age acceleration (Δage) was defined as the residual of regressing DNA methylation age on the chronological age. After adjustment for multiple risk factors of CHD and cell type proportion, compared with participants in the bottom quartile of Δage, the OR (95% CI) for CHD was 1.84 (1.17, 2.89) for participants in the top quartile. One SD increment in Δage was associated with 30% increased risk of CHD (OR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.09, 1.56; Ptrend = 0.003). The average number of cigarette equivalents consumed per day and waist-to-hip ratio were positively associated with Δage; red meat consumption was negatively associated with Δage, characterized by accelerated aging in those who never or rarely consumed red meat (all P < 0.05). Further mediation analysis revealed that 10%, 5% and 18% of the CHD risk related to smoking, waist-to-hip ratio and never or rarely red meat consumption was mediated through methylation aging, respectively (all P for mediation effect < 0.05)., Conclusions: We first identified the association between DNAm age acceleration and incident CHD in the Asian population, and provided evidence that unfavorable lifestyle-induced epigenetic aging may play an important part in the underlying pathway to CHD., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Existing evidence on long-term ambient air pollution (AAP) exposure and risk of cardio-respiratory diseases in China is mainly on mortality, and based on area average concentrations from fixed-site monitors for individual exposures. Substantial uncertainty persists, therefore, about the shape and strength of the relationship when assessed using more personalised individual exposure data. We aimed to examine the relationships between AAP exposure and risk of cardio-respiratory diseases using predicted local levels of AAP., Methods: A prospective study included 50,407 participants aged 30-79 years from Suzhou, China, with concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), fine (PM 2.5 ), and inhalable (PM 10 ) particulate matter, ozone (O 3 ) and carbon monoxide (CO) and incident cases of cardiovascular disease (CVD) (n = 2,563) and respiratory disease (n = 1,764) recorded during 2013-2015. Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for diseases associated with local-level concentrations of AAP exposure, estimated using Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling., Results: The study period of 2013-2015 included a total of 135,199 person-years of follow-up for CVD. There was a positive association of AAP, particularly SO 2 and O 3 , with risk of major cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Each 10 µg/m 3 increase in SO 2 was associated with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.12) for CVD, 1.25 (1.08, 1.44) for COPD and 1.12 (1.02, 1.23) for pneumonia. Similarly, each 10 µg/m 3 increase in O 3 was associated with adjusted HR of 1.02 (1.01, 1.03) for CVD, 1.03 (1.02, 1.05) for all stroke, and 1.04 (1.02, 1.06) for pneumonia., Conclusions: Among adults in urban China, long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with a higher risk of cardio-respiratory disease., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: At present, a large number of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients are undiagnosed in China. Thus, this study aimed to develop a simple prediction model as a screening tool to identify patients at risk for COPD., Methods: The study was based on the data of 22,943 subjects aged 30 to 79 years and enrolled in the second resurvey of China Kadoorie Biobank during 2012 and 2013 in China. We stepwisely selected the predictors using logistic regression model. Then we tested the model validity through P-P graph, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), ten-fold cross validation and an external validation in a sample of 3492 individuals from the Enjoying Breathing Program in China., Results: The final prediction model involved 14 independent variables, including age, sex, location (urban/rural), region, educational background, smoking status, smoking amount (pack-years), years of exposure to air pollution by cooking fuel, family history of COPD, history of tuberculosis, body mass index, shortness of breath, sputum and wheeze. The model showed an area under curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72-0.73) for detecting undiagnosed COPD patients, with the cutoff of predicted probability of COPD=0.22, presenting a sensitivity of 70.13% and a specificity of 62.25%. The AUROC value for screening undiagnosed patients with clinically significant COPD was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.66-0.69). Moreover, the ten-fold cross validation reported an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71-0.73), and the external validation presented an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.68-0.71)., Conclusion: This prediction model can serve as a first-stage screening tool for undiagnosed COPD patients in primary care settings., (Copyright © 2023 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license.)

Background: China has the largest burden of esophageal cancer (EC). Prediction models can be used to identify high-risk individuals for intensive lifestyle interventions and endoscopy screening. However, the current prediction models are limited by small sample size and a lack of external validation, and none of them can be embedded into the booming electronic health records (EHRs) in China., Objective: This study aims to develop and validate absolute risk prediction models for EC in the Chinese population. In particular, we assessed whether models that contain only EHR-available predictors performed well., Methods: A prospective cohort recruiting 510,145 participants free of cancer from both high EC-risk and low EC-risk areas in China was used to develop EC models. Another prospective cohort of 18,441 participants was used for validation. A flexible parametric model was used to develop a 10-year absolute risk model by considering the competing risks (full model). The full model was then abbreviated by keeping only EHR-available predictors. We internally and externally validated the models by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots and compared them based on classification measures., Results: During a median of 11.1 years of follow-up, we observed 2550 EC incident cases. The models consisted of age, sex, regional EC-risk level (high-risk areas: 2 study regions; low-risk areas: 8 regions), education, family history of cancer (simple model), smoking, alcohol use, BMI (intermediate model), physical activity, hot tea consumption, and fresh fruit consumption (full model). The performance was only slightly compromised after the abbreviation. The simple and intermediate models showed good calibration and excellent discriminating ability with AUCs (95% CIs) of 0.822 (0.783-0.861) and 0.830 (0.792-0.867) in the external validation and 0.871 (0.858-0.884) and 0.879 (0.867-0.892) in the internal validation, respectively., Conclusions: Three nested 10-year EC absolute risk prediction models for Chinese adults aged 30-79 years were developed and validated, which may be particularly useful for populations in low EC-risk areas. Even the simple model with only 5 predictors available from EHRs had excellent discrimination and good calibration, indicating its potential for broader use in tailored EC prevention. The simple and intermediate models have the potential to be widely used for both primary and secondary prevention of EC., (©Yuting Han, Xia Zhu, Yizhen Hu, Canqing Yu, Yu Guo, Dong Hang, Yuanjie Pang, Pei Pei, Hongxia Ma, Dianjianyi Sun, Ling Yang, Yiping Chen, Huaidong Du, Min Yu, Junshi Chen, Zhengming Chen, Dezheng Huo, Guangfu Jin, Jun Lv, Zhibin Hu, Hongbing Shen, Liming Li. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 15.03.2023.)

Purpose: Different populations may exhibit differences in dietary intakes, which may result in heterogeneities in diet-disease associations. We compared intakes of major food groups overall, by sex, and by socio-economic status (SES) (defined as both education and income), between participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) and the UK Biobank (UKB)., Methods: Data were from ~ 25,000 CKB participants who completed a validated interviewer-administered computer-based questionnaire (2013-2014) and ~ 74,000 UKB participants who completed ≥ 3 web-based 24-h dietary assessments (2009-2012). Intakes of 12 major food groups and five beverages were harmonized and compared between the cohorts overall, by sex and by SES. Multivariable-adjusted linear regression examined the associations between dietary intakes and body mass index (BMI) in each cohort., Results: CKB participants reported consuming more rice, eggs, vegetables, soya products, and less wheat, other staple foods (other than rice and wheat), fish, poultry, all dairy products, fruit, and beverages compared to UKB participants. Red meat intake was similar in both cohorts. Having a higher SES was generally associated with a higher consumption of foods and beverages in CKB, whereas in UKB dietary intakes differed more by education and income, with a positive association observed for meat and income in both UKB and CKB but an inverse association observed for education in UKB. Associations of dietary intakes with BMI varied between the two cohorts., Conclusion: The large differences in dietary intakes and their associations with SES and BMI could provide insight into the interpretation of potentially different diet-disease associations between CKB and UKB., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: This study aimed to: 1) assess the associations of biological age acceleration based on Klemera and Doubal's method (KDM-AA) with long-term risk of all-cause mortality; and 2) compare the association of KDM-AA with all-cause mortality among participants potentially at different stages of the cardiovascular disease (CVD) continuum., Methods: The present study was based on a subpopulation of the China Kadoorie Biobank, with baseline survey during 2004-08. A total of 12,377 participants free of ischemic heart disease, stroke, or cancer at baseline were included, in which 8180 participants were identified to develop major coronary event (MCE), ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) or subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), and 4197 remained free of these cardiovascular diseases before 1 January 2014. These participants were followed up until 1 Jan 2018. KDM-AA was calculated by regressing biological age measurement, which was constructed based on baseline 16 physical and 9 biochemical markers using Klemera and Doubal's method, on chronological age. We estimated the associations of KDM-AA with the mortality risk using the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) from Cox proportional hazard models. We assessed discrimination performance by Harrell's C-index and net reclassification index (NRI)., Findings: The participants who developed MCE (mean KDM-AA = 0.1 year, standard deviation [SD] = 1.6 years) or ICH/SAH (0.3 ± 1.5 years) during subsequent follow-up showed accelerated aging at baseline compared to those of IS (0.0 ± 1.2 years) and control (-0.3 ± 1.3 years) groups. The KDM-AA was positively associated with long-term risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.23), and the association was robust for participants potentially at different stages of the CVD continuum. Adding KDM-AA improved mortality prediction compared to the model only with sociodemographic and lifestyle factors in whole participants, with the Harrell's C-index increasing from 0.813 (0.807, 0.819) to 0.821 (0.815, 0.826) (NRI = 0.011; 95% CI: 0.003, 0.019)., Interpretation: In this middle-aged and elderly Chinese population, the KDM-AA is a promising measurement for biological age, and can capture the difference in cardiovascular health and predict the risk of all-cause mortality over a decade., Funding: This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (82192904, 82192901, 82192900, 81941018). The CKB baseline survey and the first re-survey were supported by a grant from the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation Hong Kong. The long-term follow-up is supported by grants from the UK Wellcome Trust (212946/Z/18/Z, 202922/Z/16/Z, 104085/Z/14/Z, 088158/Z/09/Z), grants (2016YFC0900500) from the National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China (81390540, 91846303), and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2011BAI09B01)., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)