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Two-thirds of all glaciers worldwide are projected to disappear by 2100 CE. Large uncertainties however remain in maritime settings, where some glaciers have recently gained mass in response to increased snowfall. One of these regions is southern Patagonia, where increased precipitation since the 1980s seems to have attenuated glacier retreat. Whether this exceptional behavior will continue in a warmer future is unclear. Here, we use a numerical ice-flow model constrained by paleoglaciological data to simulate how climate variability influenced the evolution of three maritime outlet glaciers of the Southern Patagonian Icefield during the last 6000 years. Our experiments suggest that precipitation drove 67% of the centennial-scale fluctuations in the volume of the modeled glaciers. When applied to the temperature projected by 2100 CE, our simulations show that precipitation needs to increase by 10-50% to maintain present-day glacier volumes, depending on the climate scenario (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5). This implies that if greenhouse-gas emission cuts fail, these glaciers will enter a warmer regime unseen over the last 6000 years, where precipitation cannot offset glacier mass loss. Conversely, if emissions are curtailed, increased precipitation could halt mass loss of some of Patagonia's largest glaciers, and potentially of other maritime glaciers worldwide., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Glacier meltwater supplies silicon (Si) and iron (Fe) sourced from weathered bedrock to downstream ecosystems. However, the extent to which these nutrients reach the ocean is regulated by the nature of the benthic cycling of dissolved Si and Fe within fjord systems, given the rapid deposition of reactive particulate fractions at fjord heads. Here, we examine the benthic cycling of the two nutrients at four Patagonian fjord heads through geochemical analyses of sediment pore waters, including Si and Fe isotopes (δ 30 Si and δ 56 Fe), and reaction-transport modeling for Si. A high diffusive flux of dissolved Fe from the fjord sediments (up to 0.02 mmol m -2  day -1 ) compared to open ocean sediments (typically <0.001 mmol m -2  day -1 ) is supported by both reductive and non-reductive dissolution of glacially-sourced reactive Fe phases, as reflected by the range of pore water δ 56 Fe (-2.7 to +0.8‰). In contrast, the diffusive flux of dissolved Si from the fjord sediments (0.02-0.05 mmol m -2  day -1 ) is relatively low (typical ocean values are >0.1 mmol m -2  day -1 ). High pore water δ 30 Si (up to +3.3‰) observed near the Fe(II)-Fe(III) redox boundary is likely associated with the removal of dissolved Si by Fe(III) mineral phases, which, together with high sedimentation rates, contribute to the low diffusive flux of Si at the sampled sites. Our results suggest that early diagenesis promotes the release of dissolved Fe, yet suppresses the release of dissolved Si at glaciated fjord heads, which has significant implications for understanding the downstream transport of these nutrients along fjord systems., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest relevant to this study., (© 2022. The Authors.)

Glaciated environments have been highlighted as important sources of bioavailable nutrients, with inputs of glacial meltwater potentially influencing productivity in downstream ecosystems. However, it is currently unclear how riverine nutrient concentrations vary across a spectrum of glacial cover, making it challenging to accurately predict how terrestrial fluxes will change with continued glacial retreat. Using 40 rivers in Chilean Patagonia as a unique natural laboratory, we investigate how glacial cover affects riverine Si and Fe concentrations, and infer how exports of these bioessential nutrients may change in the future. Dissolved Si (as silicic acid) and soluble Fe (<0.02 μm) concentrations were relatively low in glacier-fed rivers, whereas concentrations of colloidal-nanoparticulate (0.02-0.45 μm) Si and Fe increased significantly as a function of glacial cover. These colloidal-nanoparticulate phases were predominately composed of aluminosilicates and Fe-oxyhydroxides, highlighting the need for size-fractionated analyses and further research to quantify the lability of colloidal-nanoparticulate species. We also demonstrate the importance of reactive particulate (>0.45 μm) phases of both Si and Fe, which are not typically accounted for in terrestrial nutrient budgets but can dominate riverine exports. Dissolved Si and soluble Fe yield estimates showed no trend with glacial cover, suggesting no significant change in total exports with continued glacial retreat. However, yields of colloidal-nanoparticulate and reactive sediment-bound Si and Fe were an order of magnitude greater in highly glaciated catchments and showed significant positive correlations with glacial cover. As such, regional-scale exports of these phases are likely to decrease as glacial cover disappears across Chilean Patagonia, with potential implications for downstream ecosystems., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflicts of interest., (©2020. The Authors.)

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format.