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This scoping review examines environmental impacts related to food production and consumption in Nordic and Baltic countries. The overarching advice to all Nordic and Baltic countries, in line with the current body of scientific literature, is to shift to a more plant-based dietary pattern and avoid food waste. Taking into account current consumption patterns, there is a high potential and necessity to shift food consumption across the countries to minimise its environmental impact. More specifically, a substantial reduction in meat and dairy consumption and increased consumption of legumes/pulses, whole grains, vegetables, fruits, nuts, and seeds are suggested as a priority intervention. Reducing the environmental impacts of seafoods is also key and suggestions include a shift to seafoods with lower environmental impacts such as seaweed and bivalves. As part of the suggested transition to a more plant-based diet, the scope for increasing the provision of plant-based foods through increasing the cultivation of legumes/pulses, vegetables, and grains and through feed-to-food shifts within the region should be explored., (© 2024 Helen Harwatt et al.)

Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (Crown Copyright © 2022 Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Food systems are at the center of a brewing storm consisting of a rapidly changing climate, rising hunger and malnutrition, and significant social inequities. At the same time, there are vast opportunities to ensure that food systems produce healthy and safe food in equitable ways that promote environmental sustainability, especially if the world can come together at the UN Food Systems Summit in late 2021 and make strong and binding commitments toward food system transformation. The NIH-funded Nutrition Obesity Research Center at Harvard and the Harvard Medical School Division of Nutrition held their 22nd annual Harvard Nutrition Obesity Symposium entitled "Global Food Systems and Sustainable Nutrition in the 21st Century" in June 2021. This article presents a synthesis of this symposium and highlights the importance of food systems to addressing the burden of malnutrition and noncommunicable diseases, climate change, and the related economic and social inequities. Transformation of food systems is possible, and the nutrition and health communities have a significant role to play in this transformative process., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Society for Nutrition.)

Background: Food production accounts for 30% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Less environmentally sustainable diets are also often more processed, energy-dense and nutrient-poor. To date, the environmental impact of diets have mostly been based on a limited number of broad food groups., Objectives: We link GHG emissions to over 3000 foods, assessing associations between individuals' GHG emissions, their nutrient requirements and their demographic characteristics. We also identify additional information required in dietary assessment to generate more accurate environmental impact data for individual-level diets., Methods: GHG emissions of individual foods, including process stages prior to retail, were added to the UK Composition Of Foods Integrated Dataset (COFID) composition tables and linked to automated online dietary assessment for 212 adults over three 24-hour periods. Variations in GHG emissions were explored by dietary pattern, demographic characteristics and World Health Organization Recommended Nutrient Intakes (RNIs)., Results: GHG emissions estimates were linked to 98% (n = 3233) of food items. Meat explained 32% of diet-related GHG emissions; 15% from drinks; 14% from dairy; and 8% from cakes, biscuits and confectionery. Non-vegetarian diets had GHG emissions 59% (95% CI 18%, 115%) higher than vegetarian. Men had 41% (20%, 64%) higher GHG emissions than women. Individuals meeting RNIs for saturated fats, carbohydrates and sodium had lower GHG emissions compared to those exceeding the RNI., Discussion: Policies encouraging sustainable diets should focus on plant-based diets. Substituting tea, coffee and alcohol with more sustainable alternatives, whilst reducing less nutritious sweet snacks, presents further opportunities. Healthier diets had lower GHG emissions, demonstrating consistency between planetary and personal health. Further detail could be gained from incorporating brand, production methods, post-retail emissions, country of origin, and additional environmental impact indicators., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Phenotypic plasticity is predicted to evolve in more variable environments, conferring an advantage on individual lifetime fitness. It is less clear what the potential consequences of that plasticity will have on ecological population dynamics. Here, we use an invertebrate model system to examine the effects of environmental variation (resource availability) on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in two life history traits-age and size at maturation-in long-running, experimental density-dependent environments. Specifically, we then explore the feedback from evolution of life history plasticity to subsequent ecological dynamics in novel conditions. Plasticity in both traits initially declined in all microcosm environments, but then evolved increased plasticity for age-at-maturation, significantly so in more environmentally variable environments. We also demonstrate how plasticity affects ecological dynamics by creating founder populations of different plastic phenotypes into new microcosms that had either familiar or novel environments. Populations originating from periodically variable environments that had evolved greatest plasticity had lowest variability in population size when introduced to novel environments than those from constant or random environments. This suggests that while plasticity may be costly it can confer benefits by reducing the likelihood that offspring will experience low survival through competitive bottlenecks in variable environments. In this study, we demonstrate how plasticity evolves in response to environmental variation and can alter population dynamics-demonstrating an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in a complex animal moderated by plasticity in growth., Competing Interests: None declared., (© 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Cities will play a key role in the grand challenge of nourishing a growing global population, because, due to their population density, they set the demand. To ensure that food systems are sustainable, as well as nourishing, one solution often suggested is to shorten their supply chains toward a regional rather than a global basis. While such regional systems may have a range of costs and benefits, we investigate the mitigation potential of regionalized urban food systems by examining the greenhouse gas emissions associated with food transport. Using data on food consumption for 7108 urban administrative units (UAUs), we simulate total transport emissions for both regionalized and globalized supply chains. In regionalized systems, the UAUs' demands are fulfilled by peripheral food production, whereas to simulate global supply chains, food demand is met from an international pool (where the origin can be any location globally). We estimate that regionalized systems could reduce current emissions from food transport. However, because longer supply chains benefit from maximizing comparative advantage, this emission reduction would require closing yield gaps, reducing food waste, shifting toward diversified farming, and consuming seasonal produce. Regionalization of food systems will be an essential component to limit global warming to well below 2 °C in the future.

Detailed maps of vegetation facilitate spatial conservation planning. Such information can be difficult to map from remotely sensed data with the detail (thematic resolution) required for ecological applications. For grass-dominated habitats in the South-East of the UK, it was evaluated which of the following choices improved classification accuracies at various thematic resolutions: 1) Hyperspectral data versus data with a reduced spectral resolution of eight and 13 bands, which were simulated from the hyperspectral data. 2) A vegetation classification system using a detailed description of vegetation (sub)-communities (the British National Vegetation Classification, NVC) versus clustering based on the dominant plant species (Dom-Species). 3) The month of imagery acquisition. Hyperspectral data produced the highest accuracies for vegetation away from edges using the NVC (84-87%). Simulated 13-band data performed also well (83-86% accuracy). Simulated 8-band data performed poorer at finer thematic resolutions (77-78% accuracy), but produced accuracies similar to those from simulated 13-band or hyperspectral data for coarser thematic resolutions (82-86%). Grouping vegetation by NVC (84-87% accuracy for hyperspectral data) usually achieved higher accuracies compared to Dom-Species (81-84% for hyperspectral data). Highest discrimination rates were achieved around the time vegetation was fully developed. The results suggest that using a detailed description of vegetation (sub)-communities instead of one based on the dominating species can result in more accurate mapping. The NVC may reflect differences in site conditions in addition to differences in the composition of dominant species, which may benefit vegetation classification. The results also suggest that using hyperspectral data or the 13-band multispectral data can help to achieve the fine thematic resolutions that are often required in ecological applications. Accurate vegetation maps with a high thematic resolution can benefit a range of applications, such as species and habitat conservation., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Remote sensing of vegetation provides important information for ecological applications and environmental assessments. The association between vegetation composition and structure with its spectral signal can most fully be assessed with hyperspectral data. Particularly field spectroscopy data can improve such understanding as the spectral data can be linked with the vegetation under consideration without the geographic registration uncertainties of aerial or satellite imagery. The data provided in this article contain field spectroscopy measurements from non-arable, grass-dominated objects on four farms in an intensively used agricultural landscape in the South-East of the UK. Detailed data on the plant species composition of the objects are also supplied with this article to support further analysis. Reuse potential includes linking the vegetation data with the spectral response using spectral unmixing techniques to map certain plant species or including the field spectroscopy data in a larger study with data from a wider area. This data article is related to the paper 'Classifying grass-dominated habitats from remotely sensed data: the influence of spectral resolution, acquisition time and the vegetation classification system on accuracy and thematic resolution' (Bradter et al., 2019) in which the ability to classify the recorded vegetation from the field spectroscopy data was analysed., (© 2019 The Author(s).)

The food system was developed around a set of policy drivers to make food cheaper and more available, these included promoting agricultural productivity and global trade to increase the availability of food. However, as has been recognised by a plethora of recent papers and reports, these factors have also led to a food system that is unsustainable through its impacts on human health (particularly the growing obesity epidemic) and the environment (e.g. as a major driver of climate change). The world is changing at an unprecedented rate, and the food system is becoming increasingly 'just in time', spatially extended, and dependent on more facilitating sectors (water, land, transport, finance, cyber, etc.). This produces a degree of systemic fragility that drivers (like demand) can interact with events (e.g. a climate impact) to create the opportunity for large-scale shifts in the way the world works. Given the unsustainability of the food system, and the uncertainty of how it may evolve, scenario analysis can be a useful tool for imagining plausible futures as an aid to unlocking 'business as unusual' thinking. Summarising a number of recent processes, I describe scenarios of countries' food systems shaped by changing patterns of trade and changing dietary patterns., (© 2019 European Food Safety Authority. EFSA Journal published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of European Food Safety Authority.)

Spatio-temporal data are more ubiquitous and richer than even before and the availability of such data poses great challenges in data analytics. Ecological facilitation, the positive effect of density of individuals on the individual's survival across a stress gradient, is a complex phenomenon. A large number of tree individuals coupled with soil moisture, temperature, and water stress data across a long temporal period were followed. Data-driven analysis in the absence of hypothesis was performed. Information theoretic analysis of multiple statistical models was employed in order to quantify the best data-driven index of vegetation density and spatial scale of interactions. Sequentially, tree survival was quantified as a function of the size of the individual, vegetation density, and time at the optimal spatial interaction scale. Land surface temperature and soil moisture were also statistically explained by tree size, density, and time. Results indicated that in space both facilitation and competition co-exist in the same ecosystem and the sign and magnitude of this depend on the spatial scale. Overall, within the optimal data-driven spatial scale, tree survival was best explained by the interaction between density and year, sifting overall from facilitation to competition through time. However, small sized trees were always facilitated by increased densities, while large sized trees had either negative or no density effects. Tree size was more important predictor than density in survival and this has implications for nature-based solutions: maintaining large tree individuals or planting species that can become large-sized can safeguard against tree-less areas by promoting survival at long time periods through harsh environmental conditions. Large trees had also a significant effect in moderating land surface temperature and this effect was higher than the one of vegetation density on temperature., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Sustainably feeding the next generation is often described as one of the most pressing "grand challenges" facing the 21st century. Generally, scholars propose addressing this problem by increasing agricultural production, investing in technology to boost yields, changing diets, or reducing food waste. In this paper, we explore whether global food production is nutritionally balanced by comparing the diet that nutritionists recommend versus global agricultural production statistics. Results show that the global agricultural system currently overproduces grains, fats, and sugars while production of fruits and vegetables and protein is not sufficient to meet the nutritional needs of the current population. Correcting this imbalance could reduce the amount of arable land used by agriculture by 51 million ha globally but would increase total land used for agriculture by 407 million ha and increase greenhouse gas emissions. For a growing population, our calculations suggest that the only way to eat a nutritionally balanced diet, save land and reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to consume and produce more fruits and vegetables as well as transition to diets higher in plant-based protein. Such a move will help protect habitats and help meet the Sustainable Development Goals., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment., (© 2018 The Author(s).)

Land-use change is one of the primary drivers of species loss, yet little is known about its effect on other components of biodiversity that may be at risk. Here, we ask whether, and to what extent, landscape simplification, measured as the percentage of arable land in the landscape, disrupts the functional and phylogenetic association between primary producers and consumers. Across seven European regions, we inferred the potential associations (functional and phylogenetic) between host plants and butterflies in 561 seminatural grasslands. Local plant diversity showed a strong bottom-up effect on butterfly diversity in the most complex landscapes, but this effect disappeared in simple landscapes. The functional associations between plant and butterflies are, therefore, the results of processes that act not only locally but are also dependent on the surrounding landscape context. Similarly, landscape simplification reduced the phylogenetic congruence among host plants and butterflies indicating that closely related butterflies become more generalist in the resources used. These processes occurred without any detectable change in species richness of plants or butterflies along the gradient of arable land. The structural properties of ecosystems are experiencing substantial erosion, with potentially pervasive effects on ecosystem functions and future evolutionary trajectories. Loss of interacting species might trigger cascading extinction events and reduce the stability of trophic interactions, as well as influence the longer term resilience of ecosystem functions. This underscores a growing realization that species richness is a crude and insensitive metric and that both functional and phylogenetic associations, measured across multiple trophic levels, are likely to provide additional and deeper insights into the resilience of ecosystems and the functions they provide., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Given the pressures on land to produce ever more food, doing it 'sustainably' is growing in importance. However, 'sustainable agriculture' is complex to define, not least because agriculture impacts in many different ways and it is not clear how different aspects of sustainability may be in synergy or trade off against each other. We conducted a meta-analysis to assess the relationships between multiple measures of sustainability using novel analytical methods, based around defining the efficiency frontier in the relationship between variables, as well as using correlation analysis. We define 20 grouped variables of agriculture's impact (e.g. on soil, greenhouse gas, water, biodiversity) and find evidence of both strong positive and negative correlations between them. Analysis based on the efficiency frontier suggests that trade-offs can be 'softened' by exploiting the natural between-study variation that arises from a combination of farming best practice and context. Nonetheless, the literature provides strong evidence of the relationship between yields and the negative externalities created by farming across a range of measures., (© 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Delivering access to sufficient food, energy and water resources to ensure human wellbeing is a major concern for governments worldwide. However, it is crucial to account for the 'nexus' of interactions between these natural resources and the consequent implications for human wellbeing. The private sector has a critical role in driving positive change towards more sustainable nexus management and could reap considerable benefits from collaboration with researchers to devise solutions to some of the foremost sustainability challenges of today. Yet opportunities are missed because the private sector is rarely involved in the formulation of deliverable research priorities. We convened senior research scientists and influential business leaders to collaboratively identify the top forty questions that, if answered, would best help companies understand and manage their food-energy-water-environment nexus dependencies and impacts. Codification of the top order nexus themes highlighted research priorities around development of pragmatic yet credible tools that allow businesses to incorporate nexus interactions into their decision-making; demonstration of the business case for more sustainable nexus management; identification of the most effective levers for behaviour change; and understanding incentives or circumstances that allow individuals and businesses to take a leadership stance. Greater investment in the complex but productive relations between the private sector and research community will create deeper and more meaningful collaboration and cooperation., Competing Interests: Compliance with ethical standardsThis exercise was explicitly devised to take into account the interests of scientists, businesses and civil society. Those who took part in the prioritisation process (voting and workshop stages) are all listed as co-authors in this study except Monica Contestabile (Nature Publishing Group). Whilst the individuals who participated represented their own opinions, please note in the author details the companies and organisations whose employees have helped to shape and prioritise these research questions.

The interaction between environmental variation and population dynamics is of major importance, particularly for managed and economically important species, and especially given contemporary changes in climate variability. Recent analyses of exploited animal populations contested whether exploitation or environmental variation has the greatest influence on the stability of population dynamics, with consequences for variation in yield and extinction risk. Theoretical studies however have shown that harvesting can increase or decrease population variability depending on environmental variation, and requested controlled empirical studies to test predictions. Here, we use an invertebrate model species in experimental microcosms to explore the interaction between selective harvesting and environmental variation in food availability in affecting the variability of stage-structured animal populations over 20 generations. In a constant food environment, harvesting adults had negligible impact on population variability or population size, but in the variable food environments, harvesting adults increased population variability and reduced its size. The impact of harvesting on population variability differed between proportional and threshold harvesting, between randomly and periodically varying environments, and at different points of the time series. Our study suggests that predicting the responses to selective harvesting is sensitive to the demographic structures and processes that emerge in environments with different patterns of environmental variation.

Natural and semi-natural habitats in agricultural landscapes are likely to come under increasing pressure with the global population set to exceed 9 billion by 2050. These non-cropped habitats are primarily made up of trees, hedgerows and grassy margins and their amount, quality and spatial configuration can have strong implications for the delivery and sustainability of various ecosystem services. In this study high spatial resolution (0.5 m) colour infrared aerial photography (CIR) was used in object based image analysis for the classification of non-cropped habitat in a 10,029 ha area of southeast England. Three classification scenarios were devised using 4 and 9 class scenarios. The machine learning algorithm Random Forest (RF) was used to reduce the number of variables used for each classification scenario by 25.5 % ± 2.7%. Proportion of votes from the 4 class hierarchy was made available to the 9 class scenarios and where the highest ranked variables in all cases. This approach allowed for misclassified parent objects to be correctly classified at a lower level. A single object hierarchy with 4 class proportion of votes produced the best result (kappa 0.909). Validation of the optimum training sample size in RF showed no significant difference between mean internal out-of-bag error and external validation. As an example of the utility of this data, we assessed habitat suitability for a declining farmland bird, the yellowhammer ( Emberiza citronella ), which requires hedgerows associated with grassy margins. We found that ∼22% of hedgerows were within 200 m of margins with an area >183.31 m 2 . The results from this analysis can form a key information source at the environmental and policy level in landscape optimisation for food production and ecosystem service sustainability.

Land management intrinsically influences the distribution of animals and can consequently alter the potential for density-dependent processes to act within populations. For declining species, high densities of breeding territories are typically considered to represent productive populations. However, as density-dependent effects of food limitation or predator pressure may occur (especially when species are dependent upon separate nesting and foraging habitats), high territory density may limit per-capita productivity. Here, we use a declining but widespread European farmland bird, the yellowhammer Emberiza citrinella L., as a model system to test whether higher territory densities result in lower fledging success, parental provisioning rates or nestling growth rates compared to lower densities. Organic landscapes held higher territory densities, but nests on organic farms fledged fewer nestlings, translating to a 5 times higher rate of population shrinkage on organic farms compared to conventional. In addition, when parental provisioning behaviour was not restricted by predation risk (i.e., at times of low corvid activity), nestling provisioning rates were higher at lower territory densities, resulting in a much greater increase in nestling mass in low density areas, suggesting that food limitation occurred at high densities. These findings in turn suggest an ecological trap, whereby preferred nesting habitat does not provide sufficient food for rearing nestlings at high population density, creating a population sink. Habitat management for farmland birds should focus not simply on creating a high nesting density, but also on ensuring heterogeneous habitats to provide food resources in close proximity to nesting birds, even if this occurs through potentially restricting overall nest density but increasing population-level breeding success.

Aim: Conservation conflict takes place where food production imposes a cost on wildlife conservation and vice versa. Where does conservation impose the maximum cost on production, by opposing the intensification and expansion of farmland? Where does conservation confer the maximum benefit on wildlife, by buffering and connecting protected areas with a habitable and permeable matrix of crop and non-crop habitat? Our aim was to map the costs and benefits of conservation versus production and thus to propose a conceptual framework for systematic conservation planning in agricultural landscapes., Location: World-wide., Methods: To quantify these costs and benefits, we used a geographic information system to sample the cropland of the world and map the proportion of non-crop habitat surrounding the cropland, the number of threatened vertebrates with potential to live in or move through the matrix and the yield gap of the cropland. We defined the potential for different types of conservation conflict in terms of interactions between habitat and yield (potential for expansion, intensification, both or neither). We used spatial scan statistics to find 'hotspots' of conservation conflict., Results: All of the 'hottest' hotspots of conservation conflict were in sub-Saharan Africa, which could have impacts on sustainable intensification in this region., Main Conclusions: Systematic conservation planning could and should be used to identify hotspots of conservation conflict in agricultural landscapes, at multiple scales. The debate between 'land sharing' (extensive agriculture that is wildlife friendly) and 'land sparing' (intensive agriculture that is less wildlife friendly but also less extensive) could be resolved if sharing and sparing were used as different types of tool for resolving different types of conservation conflict (buffering and connecting protected areas by maintaining matrix quality, in different types of matrix). Therefore, both sharing and sparing should be prioritized in hotspots of conflict, in the context of countryside biogeography.

Avian blood parasites can have significant impacts on adult breeding birds but studies of parasitism outside the breeding season are rare, despite their potentially important implications for host-parasite dynamics. Here we investigate temporal dynamics of blood parasite infection in adult yellowhammers Emberiza citrinella . We screened blood samples collected between December and April of 2 consecutive winters using PCR. We found a high prevalence of both Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites, with a mean prevalence of 50% across 2 winters. Prevalence of both parasites was higher during the second, colder winter of the study. Temporal trends differed between the 2 genera, suggesting that chronic Haemoproteus infections gradually disappear throughout the winter but that Leucocytozoon infections exhibit a relapse during late winter, possibly coincident with reduced food availability. Our results highlight the difference in temporal dynamics between 2 blood parasite genera infecting the same host population and emphasize the need for accurate assessment of infection status at appropriate time periods when examining impacts of, and associations with, blood parasite infection. We suggest that further research should investigate the implications of over-winter infection for birds' physiology, behavior, and survival.

To manage agroecosystems for multiple ecosystem services, we need to know whether the management of one service has positive, negative, or no effects on other services. We do not yet have data on the interactions between pollination and pest-control services. However, we do have data on the distributions of pollinators and natural enemies in agroecosystems. Therefore, we compared these two groups of ecosystem service providers, to see if the management of farms and agricultural landscapes might have similar effects on the abundance and richness of both. In a meta-analysis, we compared 46 studies that sampled bees, predatory beetles, parasitic wasps, and spiders in fields, orchards, or vineyards of food crops. These studies used the proximity or proportion of non-crop or natural habitats in the landscapes surrounding these crops (a measure of landscape complexity), or the proximity or diversity of non-crop plants in the margins of these crops (a measure of local complexity), to explain the abundance or richness of these beneficial arthropods. Compositional complexity at both landscape and local scales had positive effects on both pollinators and natural enemies, but different effects on different taxa. Effects on bees and spiders were significantly positive, but effects on parasitoids and predatory beetles (mostly Carabidae and Staphylinidae) were inconclusive. Landscape complexity had significantly stronger effects on bees than it did on predatory beetles and significantly stronger effects in non-woody rather than in woody crops. Effects on richness were significantly stronger than effects on abundance, but possibly only for spiders. This abundance-richness difference might be caused by differences between generalists and specialists, or between arthropods that depend on non-crop habitats (ecotone species and dispersers) and those that do not (cultural species). We call this the 'specialist-generalist' or 'cultural difference' mechanism. If complexity has stronger effects on richness than abundance, it might have stronger effects on the stability than the magnitude of these arthropod-mediated ecosystem services. We conclude that some pollinators and natural enemies seem to have compatible responses to complexity, and it might be possible to manage agroecosystems for the benefit of both. However, too few studies have compared the two, and so we cannot yet conclude that there are no negative interactions between pollinators and natural enemies, and no trade-offs between pollination and pest-control services. Therefore, we suggest a framework for future research to bridge these gaps in our knowledge., (© 2013 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2013 Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Modellers of biological, ecological, and environmental systems cannot take for granted the maxim 'simple means general means good'. We argue here that viewing simple models as the main way to achieve generality may be an obstacle to the progress of ecological research. We show how complex models can be both desirable and general, and how simple and complex models can be linked together to produce broad-scale and predictive understanding of biological systems., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Pathogens and parasites can have major impacts on host population dynamics, both through direct mortality and via indirect effects. Both types of effect may be stronger in species whose populations are already under pressure. We investigated the potential for blood parasites to impact upon their hosts at the immunological, physiological and population level during the non-breeding season using a declining population of yellowhammers Emberiza citrinella as a model., Results: Yellowhammers infected by Haemoproteus spp. showed both a reduced heterophil to lymphocyte (H:L) ratio, and an elevated standardised white blood cell (WBC) count compared to uninfected birds, indicating an immunological response to infection. Infected birds had shorter wings during the first winter of sampling but not during the second, colder, winter; survival analysis of 321 birds sampled across four winters indicated that increased wing length conferred a survival advantage., Conclusions: We suggest that the potential impacts of blood parasite infections on over-wintering birds may have been underestimated. Further research should consider the potential impacts of sub-clinical parasite infections on the dynamics of vulnerable populations, and we suggest using declining populations as model systems within which to investigate these relationships as well as examining interactions between sub-clinical disease and other environmental stressors., Jel Code: Q5.

Environmental change continually perturbs populations from a stable state, leading to transient dynamics that can last multiple generations. Several long-term studies have reported changes in trait distributions along with demographic response to environmental change. Here we conducted an experimental study on soil mites and investigated the interaction between demography and an individual trait over a period of nonstationary dynamics. By following individual fates and body sizes at each life-history stage, we investigated how body size and population density influenced demographic rates. By comparing the ability of two alternative approaches, a matrix projection model and an integral projection model, we investigated whether consideration of trait-based demography enhances our ability to predict transient dynamics. By utilizing a prospective perturbation analysis, we addressed which stage-specific demographic or trait-transition rate had the greatest influence on population dynamics. Both body size and population density had important effects on most rates; however, these effects differed substantially among life-history stages. Considering the observed trait-demography relationships resulted in better predictions of a population's response to perturbations, which highlights the role of phenotypic plasticity in transient dynamics. Although the perturbation analyses provided comparable predictions of stage-specific elasticities between the matrix and integral projection models, the order of importance of the life-history stages differed between the two analyses. In conclusion, we demonstrate how a trait-based demographic approach provides further insight into transient population dynamics.

Dispersal costs can be classified into energetic, time, risk and opportunity costs and may be levied directly or deferred during departure, transfer and settlement. They may equally be incurred during life stages before the actual dispersal event through investments in special morphologies. Because costs will eventually determine the performance of dispersing individuals and the evolution of dispersal, we here provide an extensive review on the different cost types that occur during dispersal in a wide array of organisms, ranging from micro-organisms to plants, invertebrates and vertebrates. In general, costs of transfer have been more widely documented in actively dispersing organisms, in contrast to a greater focus on costs during departure and settlement in plants and animals with a passive transfer phase. Costs related to the development of specific dispersal attributes appear to be much more prominent than previously accepted. Because costs induce trade-offs, they give rise to covariation between dispersal and other life-history traits at different scales of organismal organisation. The consequences of (i) the presence and magnitude of different costs during different phases of the dispersal process, and (ii) their internal organisation through covariation with other life-history traits, are synthesised with respect to potential consequences for species conservation and the need for development of a new generation of spatial simulation models., (© 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

The world is experiencing significant, largely anthropogenically induced, environmental change. This will impact on the biological world and we need to be able to forecast its effects. In order to produce such forecasts, ecology needs to become more predictive--to develop the ability to understand how ecological systems will behave in future, changed, conditions. Further development of process-based models is required to allow such predictions to be made. Critical to the development of such models will be achieving a balance between the brute-force approach that naively attempts to include everything, and over simplification that throws out important heterogeneities at various levels. Central to this will be the recognition that individuals are the elementary particles of all ecological systems. As such it will be necessary to understand the effect of evolution on ecological systems, particularly when exposed to environmental change. However, insights from evolutionary biology will help the development of models even when data may be sparse. Process-based models are more common, and are used for forecasting, in other disciplines, e.g. climatology and molecular systems biology. Tools and techniques developed in these endeavours can be appropriated into ecological modelling, but it will also be necessary to develop the science of ecoinformatics along with approaches specific to ecological problems. The impetus for this effort should come from the demand coming from society to understand the effects of environmental change on the world and what might be performed to mitigate or adapt to them.

Dispersal can play an important role in both the local and regional dynamics of populations. Empirical studies have shown that the proportion of individuals dispersing is often density dependent, which may have implications for the effect of dispersal on populations. In this study, we manipulate the dispersal strategy of adults within two-patch laboratory populations of soil mites and compare the consequences of fixed (density-independent) and density-dependent dispersal in environments of constant and temporally varying resource availability. Effects of dispersal on population dynamics were dependent on the presence of environmental variation. Both dispersal strategies tended to spatially homogenize the population abundance of adults in a variable environment. However, the effect of environmental variation on mean adult abundance was greater with density-dependent dispersal than with fixed dispersal. Adult dispersal did not affect juvenile or egg abundance. This study demonstrates the potential significance of density-dependent dispersal for population dynamics, but emphasizes the role of the environmental context.

There is increasing recognition that ecosystems and their services need to be managed in the face of environmental change. However, there is little consensus as to the optimum scale for management. This is particularly acute in the agricultural environment given the level of public investment in agri-environment schemes (AES). Using a novel multiscale hierarchical sampling design, we assess the effect of land use at multiple spatial scales (from location-within-field to regions) on farmland biodiversity. We show that on-farm biodiversity components depend on farming practices (organic vs. conventional) at farm and landscape scales, but this strongly interacts with fine- and coarse-scale variables. Different taxa respond to agricultural practice at different spatial scales and often at multiple spatial scales. Hence, AES need to target multiple spatial scales to maximize effectiveness. Novel policy levers may be needed to encourage multiple land managers within a landscape to adopt schemes that create landscape-level benefits.

As urbanisation increases globally and the natural environment becomes increasingly fragmented, the importance of urban green spaces for biodiversity conservation grows. In many countries, private gardens are a major component of urban green space and can provide considerable biodiversity benefits. Gardens and adjacent habitats form interconnected networks and a landscape ecology framework is necessary to understand the relationship between the spatial configuration of garden patches and their constituent biodiversity. A scale-dependent tension is apparent in garden management, whereby the individual garden is much smaller than the unit of management needed to retain viable populations. To overcome this, here we suggest mechanisms for encouraging 'wildlife-friendly' management of collections of gardens across scales from the neighbourhood to the city., (Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Well-established statistical methods exist to estimate variation in a number of key demographic rates from field data, including life-history transition probabilities and reproductive success per attempt. However, our understanding of the processes underlying population change remains incomplete without knowing the number of reproductive attempts individuals make annually; this is a key demographic rate for which we have no satisfactory method of estimating. Using census data to estimate this parameter from requires disaggregating the overlying temporal distributions of first and subsequent breeding attempts. We describe a Bayesian mixture method to estimate the annual number of reproductive attempts from field data to provide a new tool for demographic inference. We validate our method using comprehensive data on individually-marked song sparrows Melospiza melodia, and then apply it to more typical nest record data collected over 45 years on yellowhammers Emberiza citrinella. We illustrate the utility of our method by testing, and rejecting, the hypothesis that declines in UK yellowhammer populations have occurred concurrently with declines in annual breeding frequency.

1. Dispersal of individuals between habitat patches depends on both the propensity to emigrate from a patch and the ability to survive inter-patch movement. Environmental factors and individual characteristics have been shown to influence dispersal rates but separating the effects of emigration and dispersal mortality on dispersal can often be difficult. In this study, we use a soil mite laboratory system to investigate factors affecting emigration and dispersal mortality. 2. We tested the movement of different age groups in two-patch systems with different inter-patch distances. Differences in immigration among age groups were primarily driven by differences in emigration but dispersal mortality was greater for some groups. Immigration declined with increasing inter-patch distance, which was due to increasing dispersal mortality and decreasing emigration. 3. In a second experiment, we compared the dispersal of recently matured males and females and tested the impact of food availability during the developmental period on their dispersal. Dispersal was found to be male biased but there was no significant sex bias in dispersal mortality. There was some evidence that food availability could affect emigration and dispersal mortality. 4. These results demonstrate that both emigration and dispersal mortality can be affected by factors such as individual age and resource availability. Understanding these effects is likely to be important for predicting the fitness costs and population consequences of dispersal.

Environmental change, including climate change, can cause rapid phenotypic change via both ecological and evolutionary processes. Because ecological and evolutionary dynamics are intimately linked, a major challenge is to identify their relative roles. We exactly decomposed the change in mean body weight in a free-living population of Soay sheep into all the processes that contribute to change. Ecological processes contribute most, with selection--the underpinning of adaptive evolution--explaining little of the observed phenotypic trend. Our results enable us to explain why selection has so little effect even though weight is heritable, and why environmental change has caused a decline in the body size of Soay sheep.

Evolutionary processes play an important role in shaping the dynamics of range expansions, and selection on dispersal propensity has been demonstrated to accelerate rates of advance. Previous theory has considered only the evolution of unconditional dispersal rates, but dispersal is often more complex. For example, many species emigrate in response to crowding. Here, we use an individual-based model to investigate the evolution of density dependent dispersal into empty habitat, such as during an invasion. The landscape is represented as a lattice and dispersal between populations follows a stepping-stone pattern. Individuals carry three 'genes' that determine their dispersal strategy when experiencing different population densities. For a stationary range we obtain results consistent with previous theoretical studies: few individuals emigrate from patches that are below equilibrium density. However, during the range expansion of a previously stationary population, we observe evolution towards dispersal strategies where considerable emigration occurs well below equilibrium density. This is true even for moderate costs to dispersal, and always results in accelerating rates of range expansion. Importantly, the evolution we observe at an expanding front depends upon fitness integrated over several generations and cannot be predicted by a consideration of lifetime reproductive success alone. We argue that a better understanding of the role of density dependent dispersal, and its evolution, in driving population dynamics is required especially within the context of range expansions.

Maternal effects arise when a mother's phenotype or the environment she experiences influences the phenotype of her progeny. Most studies of adaptive maternal effects are a "snapshot" of a mother's lifetime offspring provisioning and do not generally consider the effects of earlier siblings on those produced later. Here we show that in soil mites, offspring provisioning strategies are dynamic, changing from an emphasis on egg number in young females to egg size in older females. This pattern may be adaptive if it increases the survival of younger offspring that must compete with older, larger siblings. The dynamic shift in egg provisioning was greater in high-food environments in which females lived longer, creating increasing asymmetry in offspring competitive abilities. Females reared in isolation and in the presence of a high-density colony had identical provisioning strategies, suggesting that, unlike males in this species, females do not use pheromones to assess colony size. Our findings suggest that the adaptive significance of maternal effects may be misinterpreted when studies consider only a snapshot of a female's offspring provisioning strategy or when components of the offspring provisioning strategy are studied in isolation.

Global-scale environmental problems are rarely regarded as amenable to traditional scientific experiment. We argue here that small-scale experiments using 'model organisms' in microcosms or mesocosms can be a useful approach for apparently intractable global problems, such as ecosystem responses to climate change or managing biodiversity through the design of nature reserves. An experimental, small-scale research programme can easily be coupled with the development of theory and act as a stimulus to further research, thereby hastening both understanding of the issues and development of practical solutions. This process--from microcosm experiment to the development of practical application--has previously been influential but also has a long time lag. We suggest short-cuts in an attempt to stimulate the use of small-scale experiments to address globally urgent issues with meaningful policy implications.

Population dynamics result from the interplay of density-independent and density-dependent processes. Understanding this interplay is important, especially for being able to predict near-term population trajectories for management. In recent years, the study of model systems-experimental, observational and theoretical-has shed considerable light on the way that the both density-dependent and -independent aspects of the environment affect population dynamics via impacting on the organism's life history and therefore demography. These model-based approaches suggest that (i) individuals in different states differ in their demographic performance, (ii) these differences generate structure that can fluctuate independently of current total population size and so can influence the dynamics in important ways, (iii) individuals are strongly affected by both current and past environments, even when the past environments may be in previous generations and (iv) dynamics are typically complex and transient due to environmental noise perturbing complex population structures. For understanding population dynamics of any given system, we suggest that 'the devil is in the detail'. Experimental dissection of empirical systems is providing important insights into the details of the drivers of demographic responses and therefore dynamics and should also stimulate theory that incorporates relevant biological mechanism.