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Tuberculosis (TB) and non-communicable diseases (NCD) share predisposing risk factors. TB-associated NCD might cluster within households affected with TB requiring shared prevention and care strategies. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis of national TB prevalence surveys to determine whether NCD cluster in members of households with TB. We identified eligible surveys that reported at least one NCD or NCD risk factor through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and searching in Medline and Embase from 1 January 2000 to 10 August 2021, which was updated on 23 March 2023. We compared the prevalence of NCD and their risk factors between people who do not have TB living in households with at least one person with TB (members of households with TB), and members of households without TB. We included 16 surveys (n = 740,815) from Asia and Africa. In a multivariable model adjusted for age and gender, the odds of smoking was higher among members of households with TB (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.23; 95% CI: 1.11-1.38), compared with members of households without TB. The analysis did not find a significant difference in the prevalence of alcohol drinking, diabetes, hypertension, or BMI between members of households with and without TB. Studies evaluating household-wide interventions for smoking to reduce its dual impact on TB and NCD may be warranted. Systematically screening for NCD using objective diagnostic methods is needed to understand the actual burden of NCD and inform comprehensive interventions., Competing Interests: TSo declares a receipt of funding from the Global Fund for conducting the TB prevalence survey in Mongolia. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright: © 2024 Hamada et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: In Kilifi (Kenya), a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in 2011 in infants (aged <1 year, 3 + 0 schedule) with a catch-up campaign in children aged 1-4 years. We aimed to measure the effect of PCV10 on population immunity., Methods: In this observational study, repeated cross-sectional serosurveys were conducted in independent random samples of 500 children younger than 15 years every 2 years between 2009 and 2017. During these surveys, blood samples were collected by venesection. Concentrations of anti-capsular IgGs against vaccine serotypes (VTs) 1, 4, 5, 6B, 7F, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F, and against serotypes 6A and 19A, were assayed by ELISA. We plotted the geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) by birth year to visualise age-specific antibody profiles. In infants, IgG concentrations of 0·35 μg/mL or higher were considered protective., Findings: Of 3673 volunteers approached, 2152 submitted samples for analysis across the five surveys. Vaccine introduction resulted in an increase in the proportion of young children with protective IgG concentrations, compared with before vaccine introduction (from 0-33% of infants with VT-specific levels over the correlate of protection in 2009, to 60-94% of infants in 2011). However, among those vaccinated in infancy, GMCs of all ten VTs had waned rapidly by the age of 1, but rose again later in childhood. GMCs among children aged 10-14 years were consistently high over time (eg, the range of GMCs across survey rounds were between 0·45 μg/mL and 1·00 μg/mL for VT 23F and between 2·00 μg/mL and 3·11 μg/mL for VT 19F)., Interpretation: PCV10 in a 3 + 0 schedule elicited protective IgG levels during infancy, when disease risk is high. The high antibody levels in children aged 10-14 years might indicate continued exposure to vaccine serotypes due to residual carriage or to memory responses to cross-reactive antigens. Despite rapid waning of IgG after vaccination, disease incidence among young children in this setting remains low, suggesting that lower thresholds of antibody, or other markers of immunity (eg, memory B cells), may be needed to assess population protection among children who have aged past infancy., Funding: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Wellcome Trust., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests LLH has received research funding outside this work through her institution from AstraZeneca, Merck, and Pfizer. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Vaccination against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a cost-effective mitigation strategy against the pandemic. As the COVID-19 vaccine becomes more available, low uptake is now a global threat and understanding the underpinnings in local contexts is a priority for intervention development. We aimed to evaluate behavioural determinants of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance that could inform engagement strategies to improve vaccine uptake in Makoko, an urban slum in Lagos, Nigeria., Methods: A population-based case-control study utilized the barrier analysis (BA) approach to evaluate the beliefs and behaviours of 45 'doers' and 45 'non-doers'. The standardized BA tabulation sheet was used to assess differences in the proportions between the two groups to identify significant factors that could be addressed through a behaviour change strategy., Results: Perceived social norms (family, friend, healthcare workers) that approve the vaccine and expected vaccine protection against diseases among doers were determinants of behaviour. Perceived poor accessibility, safety concerns, lack of trust, low vaccine efficacy and low susceptibility to the infection were the most important determinants of behaviour among non-doers., Conclusions: Measures to improve COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in Makoko should include improvement in accessibility and exposing myths and misinformation through clear, concise and evidence-based community education delivered by trusted persons such as healthcare workers and religious leaders., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.)

Background: We sought to estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population during the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second year of COVID-19 vaccine use., Methods: We conducted cross-sectional serosurveys among randomly selected, age-stratified samples of Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) residents in Kilifi and Nairobi. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) serostatus was measured using a validated in-house ELISA and antibody concentrations estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin., Results: HDSS residents were sampled in February-June 2022 (Kilifi HDSS N = 852; Nairobi Urban HDSS N = 851) and in August-December 2022 (N = 850 for both sites). Population-weighted coverage for ≥1 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were 11.1% (9.1-13.2%) among Kilifi HDSS residents by November 2022 and 34.2% (30.7-37.6%) among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents by December 2022. Population-weighted anti-S IgG seroprevalence among Kilifi HDSS residents increased from 69.1% (65.8-72.3%) by May 2022 to 77.4% (74.4-80.2%) by November 2022. Within the Nairobi Urban HDSS, seroprevalence by June 2022 was 88.5% (86.1-90.6%), comparable with seroprevalence by December 2022 (92.2%; 90.2-93.9%). For both surveys, seroprevalence was significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents, as were antibody concentrations (p < 0.001)., Conclusion: More than 70% of Kilifi residents and 90% of Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by the end of 2022. There is a potential immunity gap in rural Kenya; implementation of interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake among sub-groups at increased risk of severe COVID-19 in rural settings is recommended., (© 2023 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and NCD risk factors, such as smoking, increase the risk for tuberculosis (TB). Data are scarce on the risk of prevalent TB associated with these factors in the context of population-wide systematic screening and on the association between NCDs and NCD risk factors with different manifestations of TB, where ∼50% being asymptomatic but bacteriologically positive (subclinical). We did an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of national and sub-national TB prevalence surveys to synthesise the evidence on the risk of symptomatic and subclinical TB in people with NCDs or risk factors, which could help countries to plan screening activities., Methods: In this systematic review and IPD meta-analysis, we identified eligible prevalence surveys in low-income and middle-income countries that reported at least one NCD (e.g., diabetes) or NCD risk factor (e.g., smoking, alcohol use) through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and by searching in Medline and Embase from January 1, 2000 to August 10, 2021. The search was updated on March 23, 2023. We performed a one-stage meta-analysis using multivariable multinomial models. We estimated the proportion of and the odds ratio for subclinical and symptomatic TB compared to people without TB for current smoking, alcohol use, and self-reported diabetes, adjusted for age and gender. Subclinical TB was defined as microbiologically confirmed TB without symptoms of current cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss and symptomatic TB with at least one of these symptoms. We assessed heterogeneity using forest plots and I 2 statistic. Missing variables were imputed through multi-level multiple imputation. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021272679)., Findings: We obtained IPD from 16 national surveys out of 21 national and five sub-national surveys identified (five in Asia and 11 in Africa, N = 740,815). Across surveys, 15.1%-56.7% of TB were subclinical (median: 38.1%). In the multivariable model, current smoking was associated with both subclinical (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.27-2.40) and symptomatic TB (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.34-1.66). Self-reported diabetes was associated with symptomatic TB (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.17-2.40) but not with subclinical TB (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.55-1.55). For alcohol drinking ≥ twice per week vs no alcohol drinking, the estimates were imprecise (OR 1.59, 95% CI 0.70-3.62) for subclinical TB and OR 1.43, 95% CI 0.59-3.46 for symptomatic TB). For the association between current smoking and symptomatic TB, I 2 was high (76.5% (95% CI 62.0-85.4), while the direction of the point estimates was consistent except for three surveys with wide CIs., Interpretation: Our findings suggest that current smokers are more likely to have both symptomatic and subclinical TB. These individuals can, therefore, be prioritised for intensified screening, such as the use of chest X-ray in the context of community-based screening. People with self-reported diabetes are also more likely to have symptomatic TB, but the association is unclear for subclinical TB., Funding: None., Competing Interests: TSo declares a receipt of funding from the Global Fund for conducting the TB prevalence survey in Mongolia. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Background: Suboptimal detection and response to recent outbreaks, including COVID-19 and mpox (formerly known as monkeypox), have shown that the world is insufficiently prepared for public health threats. Routine monitoring of detection and response performance of health emergency systems through timeliness metrics has been proposed to evaluate and improve outbreak preparedness and contain health threats early. We implemented 7-1-7 to measure the timeliness of detection (target of ≤7 days from emergence), notification (target of ≤1 day from detection), and completion of seven early response actions (target of ≤7 days from notification), and we identified bottlenecks to and enablers of system performance., Methods: In this retrospective, observational study, we conducted reviews of public health events in Brazil, Ethiopia, Liberia, Nigeria, and Uganda with staff from ministries of health and national public health institutes. For selected public health events occurring from Jan 1, 2018, to Dec 31, 2022, we calculated timeliness intervals for detection, notification, and early response actions, and synthesised identified bottlenecks and enablers. We mapped bottlenecks and enablers to Joint External Evaluation (second edition) indicators., Findings: Of 41 public health events assessed, 22 (54%) met a target of 7 days to detect (median 6 days [range 0-157]), 29 (71%) met a target of 1 day to notify (0 days [0-24]), and 20 (49%) met a target of 7 days to complete all early response actions (8 days [0-72]). 11 (27%) events met the complete 7-1-7 target, with variation among event types. 25 (61%) of 41 bottlenecks to and 27 (51%) of 53 enablers of detection were at the health facility level, with delays to notification (14 [44%] of 32 bottlenecks) and response (22 [39%] of 56 bottlenecks) most often at an intermediate public health (ie, municipal, district, county, state, or province) level. Rapid resource mobilisation for responses (six [9%] of 65 enablers) from the national level enabled faster responses., Interpretation: The 7-1-7 target is feasible to measure and to achieve, and assessment with this framework can identify areas for performance improvement and help prioritise national planning. Increased investments must be made at the health facility and intermediate public health levels for improved systems to detect, notify, and rapidly respond to emerging public health threats., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) protect against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among vaccinees. However, at population level, this protection is driven by indirect effects. PCVs prevent nasopharyngeal acquisition of vaccine-serotype (VT) pneumococci, reducing onward transmission. Each disease episode is preceded by infection from a carrier, so vaccine impacts on carriage provide a minimum estimate of disease reduction in settings lacking expensive IPD surveillance. We documented carriage prevalence and vaccine coverage in two settings in Nigeria annually (2016-2020) following PCV10 introduction in 2016. Among 4,684 rural participants, VT carriage prevalence fell from 21 to 12% as childhood (<5 years) vaccine coverage rose from 7 to 84%. Among 2,135 urban participants, VT carriage prevalence fell from 16 to 9% as uptake rose from 15 to 94%. Within these ranges, carriage prevalence declined with uptake. Increasing PCV10 coverage reduced pneumococcal infection at all ages, implying at least a comparable reduction in IPD., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Introduction: The high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have remained undetected presents a challenge to tracking the progress of the pandemic and estimating the extent of population immunity., Methods: We used residual blood samples from women attending antenatal care services at three hospitals in Kenya between August 2020 and October 2021and a validated IgG ELISA for SARS-Cov-2 spike protein and adjusted the results for assay sensitivity and specificity. We fitted a two-component mixture model as an alternative to the threshold analysis to estimate of the proportion of individuals with past SARS-CoV-2 infection., Results: We estimated seroprevalence in 2,981 women; 706 in Nairobi, 567 in Busia and 1,708 in Kilifi. By October 2021, 13% of participants were vaccinated (at least one dose) in Nairobi, 2% in Busia. Adjusted seroprevalence rose in all sites; from 50% (95%CI 42-58) in August 2020, to 85% (95%CI 78-92) in October 2021 in Nairobi; from 31% (95%CI 25-37) in May 2021 to 71% (95%CI 64-77) in October 2021 in Busia; and from 1% (95% CI 0-3) in September 2020 to 63% (95% CI 56-69) in October 2021 in Kilifi. Mixture modelling, suggests adjusted cross-sectional prevalence estimates are underestimates; seroprevalence in October 2021 could be 74% in Busia and 72% in Kilifi., Conclusions: There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi Counties. Due to the length of time since the beginning of the pandemic, repeated cross-sectional surveys are now difficult to interpret without the use of models to account for antibody waning., Competing Interests: This project was funded by a commercial source, the Wellcome Trust (grants 220991/Z/20/Z and 203077/Z/16/Z). This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Authors declare no other competing interests.

Investment in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing in Africa over the past year has led to a major increase in the number of sequences that have been generated and used to track the pandemic on the continent, a number that now exceeds 100,000 genomes. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries that are able to sequence domestically and highlight that local sequencing enables faster turnaround times and more-regular routine surveillance. Despite limitations of low testing proportions, findings from this genomic surveillance study underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic and illuminate the distinct dispersal dynamics of variants of concern-particularly Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron-on the continent. Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve while the continent faces many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century.

Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission., Competing Interests: Competing interests: DJN, VW are members of the National COVID-19 Modelling Technical Committee, for the Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya. KK, PA, MM, RA are from the Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya, and WN from the Presidential Policy & Strategy Unit, The Presidency, Government of Kenya. All other authors declare no competing interests, (Copyright: © 2022 Ojal J et al.)

Background: Population-level health and mortality data are crucial for evidence-informed policy but scarce in Nigeria. To fill this gap, we undertook a comprehensive assessment of the burden of disease in Nigeria and compared outcomes to other west African countries., Methods: In this systematic analysis, using data and results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we analysed patterns of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and health system coverage for Nigeria and 15 other west African countries by gender in 1998 and 2019. Estimates of all-age and age-standardised disability-adjusted life-years for 369 diseases and injuries and 87 risk factors are presented for Nigeria. Health expenditure per person and gross domestic product were extracted from the World Bank repository., Findings: Between 1998 and 2019, life expectancy and HALE increased in Nigeria by 18% to 64·3 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 62·2-66·6), mortality reduced for all age groups for both male and female individuals, and health expenditure per person increased from the 11th to third highest in west Africa by 2018 (US$18·6 in 2001 to $83·75 in 2018). Nonetheless, relative outcomes remained poor; Nigeria ranked sixth in west Africa for age-standardised mortality, seventh for HALE, tenth for YLLs, 12th for health system coverage, and 14th for YLDs in 2019. Malaria (5176·3 YLLs per 100 000 people, 95% UI 2464·0-9591·1) and neonatal disorders (4818·8 YLLs per 100 000, 3865·9-6064·2) were the leading causes of YLLs in Nigeria in 2019. Nigeria had the fourth-highest under-five mortality rate for male individuals (2491·8 deaths per 100 000, 95% UI 1986·1-3140·1) and female individuals (2117·7 deaths per 100 000, 1756·7-2569·1), but among the lowest mortality for men older than 55 years. There was evidence of a growing non-communicable disease burden facing older Nigerians., Interpretation: Health outcomes remain poor in Nigeria despite higher expenditure since 2001. Better outcomes in countries with equivalent or lower health expenditure suggest health system strengthening and targeted intervention to address unsafe water sources, poor sanitation, malnutrition, and exposure to air pollution could substantially improve population health., Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests GA is a current head of the National Agency for the Control of AIDS. CI and SA held leadership roles in the Nigerian Government during the period of writing of this paper. SA is editor in chief of BMJ Global Health. IA was a scientific and technical adviser to the Nigerian Government Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 and ZI is chair of the Nigerian national ethics committee. IA, FO, GA, SA, and IMOA are members of the Presidential Health Reform Committee. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Competing Interests: Declaration of interests FS, MNS, GA, and BLS are current heads of Nigerian Government health agencies. CI and SHA held leadership roles in the Nigerian Government during the period of writing of this Commission. SA is editor-in-chief of BMJ Global Health. IA was a Scientific and Technical Adviser to the Nigerian Government Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 and ZI is chair of the Nigerian national ethics committee. All other authors declare no competing interests.

Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission., Competing Interests: Competing interests: DJN, VW are members of the National COVID-19 Modelling Technical Committee, for the Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya. KK, PA, MM, RA are from the Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya, and WN from the Presidential Policy & Strategy Unit, The Presidency, Government of Kenya. All other authors declare no competing interests, (Copyright: © 2022 Ojal J et al.)

Background: Few studies have assessed the seroprevalence of antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among healthcare workers (HCWs) in Africa. We report findings from a survey among HCWs in 3 counties in Kenya., Methods: We recruited 684 HCWs from Kilifi (rural), Busia (rural), and Nairobi (urban) counties. The serosurvey was conducted between 30 July and 4 December 2020. We tested for immunoglobulin G antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Assay sensitivity and specificity were 92.7 (95% CI, 87.9-96.1) and 99.0% (95% CI, 98.1-99.5), respectively. We adjusted prevalence estimates, using bayesian modeling to account for assay performance., Results: The crude overall seroprevalence was 19.7% (135 of 684). After adjustment for assay performance, seroprevalence was 20.8% (95% credible interval, 17.5%-24.4%). Seroprevalence varied significantly (P < .001) by site: 43.8% (95% credible interval, 35.8%-52.2%) in Nairobi, 12.6% (8.8%-17.1%) in Busia and 11.5% (7.2%-17.6%) in Kilifi. In a multivariable model controlling for age, sex, and site, professional cadre was not associated with differences in seroprevalence., Conclusion: These initial data demonstrate a high seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among HCWs in Kenya. There was significant variation in seroprevalence by region, but not by cadre., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Many SARS-CoV-2 antibody detection assays have been developed but their differential performance is not well described. In this study we compared an in-house (KWTRP) ELISA which has been used extensively to estimate seroprevalence in the Kenyan population with WANTAI, an ELISA which has been approved for widespread use by the WHO. Using a wide variety of sample sets including pre-pandemic samples (negative gold standard), SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive samples (positive gold standard) and COVID-19 test samples from different periods (unknowns), we compared performance characteristics of the two assays. The overall concordance between WANTAI and KWTRP was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.95-0.98). For WANTAI and KWTRP, sensitivity was 0.95 (95% CI 0.90-0.98) and 0.93 (95% CI 0.87-0.96), respectively. Specificity for WANTAI was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.96-0.99) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.96-1.00) while KWTRP specificity was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98-1.00) and 1.00 using pre-pandemic blood donors and pre-pandemic malaria cross-sectional survey samples respectively. Both assays show excellent characteristics to detect SARS-CoV-2 antibodies., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban–rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.

Observed SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths are low in tropical Africa raising questions about the extent of transmission. We measured SARS-CoV-2 IgG by ELISA in 9,922 blood donors across Kenya and adjusted for sampling bias and test performance. By 1st September 2020, 577 COVID-19 deaths were observed nationwide and seroprevalence was 9.1% (95%CI 7.6-10.8%). Seroprevalence in Nairobi was 22.7% (18.0-27.7%). Although most people remained susceptible, SARS-CoV-2 had spread widely in Kenya with apparently low associated mortality.

In October 2020, anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunoglobulin G seroprevalence among truck drivers and their assistants (TDA) in Kenya was 42.3%, higher than among healthcare workers and blood donors. Truck drivers and their assistants transport essential supplies during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, placing them at increased risk of being infected and of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 over a wide geographical area., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: The global Immunisation Agenda 2030 highlights coverage and equity as a strategic priority goal to reach high equitable immunisation coverage at national levels and in all districts. We estimated inequities in full immunisation coverage associated with socioeconomic, geographic, maternal, child, and place of birth characteristics among children aged 12-23 months in Kenya., Methods: We analysed full immunisation coverage (1-dose BCG, 3-dose DTP-HepB-Hib (diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B and Haemophilus influenzae type B), 3-dose polio, 1-dose measles, and 3-dose pneumococcal vaccines) of 3943 children aged 12-23 months from the 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey. We disaggregated mean coverage by socioeconomic (household wealth, religion, ethnicity), geographic (place of residence, province), maternal (maternal age at birth, maternal education, maternal marital status, maternal household head status), child (sex of child, birth order), and place of birth characteristics, and estimated inequities in full immunisation coverage using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression., Results: Immunisation coverage ranged from 82% [81-84] for the third dose of polio to 97.4% [96.7-98.2] for the first dose of DTP-HepB-Hib, while full immunisation coverage was 68% [66-71] in 2014. After controlling for other background characteristics through multivariate logistic regression, children of mothers with primary school education or higher have at least 54% higher odds of being fully immunised compared to children of mothers with no education. Children born in clinical settings had 41% higher odds of being fully immunised compared to children born in home settings. Children in the Coast, Western, Central, and Eastern regions had at least 74% higher odds of being fully immunised compared to children in the North Eastern region, while children in urban areas had 26% lower odds of full immunisation compared to children in rural areas. Children in the middle and richer wealth quintile households were 43-57% more likely to have full immunisation coverage compared to children in the poorest wealth quintile households. Children who were sixth born or higher had 37% lower odds of full immunisation compared to first-born children., Conclusions: Children of mothers with no education, born in home settings, in regions with limited health infrastructure, living in poorer households, and of higher birth order are associated with lower rates of full immunisation. Targeted programmes to reach under-immunised children in these subpopulations will lower the inequities in childhood immunisation coverage in Kenya.

Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission., Competing Interests: Competing interests: DJN, VW are members of the National COVID-19 Modelling Technical Committee, for the Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya. KK, PA, MM, RA are from the Ministry of Health, Government of Kenya, and WN from the Presidential Policy & Strategy Unit, The Presidency, Government of Kenya. All other authors declare no competing interests, (Copyright: © 2021 Ojal J et al.)

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Africa is poorly described. The first case of SARS-CoV-2 in Kenya was reported on 12 March 2020, and an overwhelming number of cases and deaths were expected, but by 31 July 2020, there were only 20,636 cases and 341 deaths. However, the extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in the community remains unknown. We determined the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G among blood donors in Kenya in April-June 2020. Crude seroprevalence was 5.6% (174 of 3098). Population-weighted, test-performance-adjusted national seroprevalence was 4.3% (95% confidence interval, 2.9 to 5.8%) and was highest in urban counties Mombasa (8.0%), Nairobi (7.3%), and Kisumu (5.5%). SARS-CoV-2 exposure is more extensive than indicated by case-based surveillance, and these results will help guide the pandemic response in Kenya and across Africa., (Copyright © 2021, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provided comprehensive estimates of health loss globally. Decision makers in Kenya can use GBD subnational data to target health interventions and address county-level variation in the burden of disease., Methods: We used GBD 2016 estimates of life expectancy at birth, healthy life expectancy, all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk factors to analyse health by age and sex at the national and county levels in Kenya from 1990 to 2016., Findings: The national all-cause mortality rate decreased from 850·3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 829·8-871·1) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 579·0 (562·1-596·0) deaths per 100 000 in 2016. Under-5 mortality declined from 95·4 (95% UI 90·1-101·3) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 43·4 (36·9-51·2) deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2016, and maternal mortality fell from 315·7 (242·9-399·4) deaths per 100 000 in 1990 to 257·6 (195·1-335·3) deaths per 100 000 in 2016, with steeper declines after 2006 and heterogeneously across counties. Life expectancy at birth increased by 5·4 (95% UI 3·7-7·2) years, with higher gains in females than males in all but ten counties. Unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing, unsafe sex, and malnutrition were the leading national risk factors in 2016., Interpretation: Health outcomes have improved in Kenya since 2006. The burden of communicable diseases decreased but continues to predominate the total disease burden in 2016, whereas the non-communicable disease burden increased. Health gains varied strikingly across counties, indicating targeted approaches for health policy are necessary., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: The benefits of childhood vaccines are critically dependent on vaccination coverage. We used a vaccine registry (as gold standard) in Kenya to quantify errors in routine coverage methods (surveys and administrative reports), to estimate the magnitude of survivor bias, contrast coverage with timeliness and use both measures to estimate population immunity., Methods: Vaccination records of children in the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), Kenya were combined with births, deaths, migration and residence data from 2010 to 17. Using inverse survival curves, we estimated up-to-date and age-appropriate vaccination coverage, calculated mean vaccination coverage in infancy as the area under the inverse survival curves, and estimated the proportion of fully immunised children (FIC). Results were compared with published coverage estimates. Risk factors for vaccination were assessed using Cox regression models., Results: We analysed data for 49,090 infants and 48,025 children aged 12-23 months in 6 birth cohorts and 6 cross-sectional surveys respectively, and found 2nd year of life surveys overestimated coverage by 2% compared to birth cohorts. Compared to mean coverage in infants, static coverage at 12 months was exaggerated by 7-8% for third doses of oral polio, pentavalent (Penta3) and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, and by 24% for the measles vaccine. Surveys and administrative coverage also underestimated the proportion of the fully immunised child by 10-14%. For BCG, Penta3 and measles, timeliness was 23-44% higher in children born in a health facility but 20-37% lower in those who first attended during vaccine stock outs., Conclusions: Standard coverage surveys in 12-23 month old children overestimate protection by ignoring timeliness, and survivor and recall biases. Where delayed vaccination is common, up-to-date coverage will give biased estimates of population immunity. Surveys and administrative methods also underestimate FIC prevalence. Better measurement of coverage and more sophisticated analyses are required to control vaccine preventable diseases., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Rationale: Contacts of patients with tuberculosis (TB) constitute an important target population for preventive measures because they are at high risk of infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis and progression to disease. Objectives: We investigated biosignatures with predictive ability for incident TB. Methods: In a case-control study nested within the Grand Challenges 6-74 longitudinal HIV-negative African cohort of exposed household contacts, we employed RNA sequencing, PCR, and the pair ratio algorithm in a training/test set approach. Overall, 79 progressors who developed TB between 3 and 24 months after diagnosis of index case and 328 matched nonprogressors who remained healthy during 24 months of follow-up were investigated. Measurements and Main Results: A four-transcript signature derived from samples in a South African and Gambian training set predicted progression up to two years before onset of disease in blinded test set samples from South Africa, the Gambia, and Ethiopia with little population-associated variability, and it was also validated in an external cohort of South African adolescents with latent M. tuberculosis infection. By contrast, published diagnostic or prognostic TB signatures were predicted in samples from some but not all three countries, indicating site-specific variability. Post hoc meta-analysis identified a single gene pair, C1QC / TRAV27 (complement C1q C-chain / T-cell receptor-α variable gene 27) that would consistently predict TB progression in household contacts from multiple African sites but not in infected adolescents without known recent exposure events. Conclusions: Collectively, we developed a simple whole blood-based PCR test to predict TB in recently exposed household contacts from diverse African populations. This test has potential for implementation in national TB contact investigation programs.

Changes in nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage of vaccine-type (VT) Streptococcus pneumoniae can be used to assess the effectiveness of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10). We conducted a baseline carriage survey in rural (Kumbotso, Kano) and urban (Pakoto, Ogun) Nigeria. In this cross-sectional study, we obtained data on demography, clinical history, risk factors, and took NP swabs for pneumococcal culture. We calculated crude and age-standardised carriage prevalence and used log-binomial regression to assess risk factors for carriage. Among children aged <5 years, 92% (95% CI: 88-95%) and 78% (73-82%), respectively, carried any pneumococcus and 48% and 50%, respectively, carried PCV10 serotypes. In Kumbotso, carriage prevalence was >40% across all ages. The age-standardized prevalence of pneumococcal carriage was 66% in Kumbotso and 40% in Pakoto. The most commonly identified serotypes were 19 F, 6 A and 23 F. Risk factors for carriage were young age, recent rhinorrhoea, cohabitation with ≥2 children aged <5 years, and sharing a bed with ≥2 persons. Pneumococcal carriage prevalence is high in this Nigerian population. Persisting prevalence of VT-carriage in older children and adults suggests that PCV10 introduction in children will not eliminate transmission of vaccine serotypes rapidly. High vaccine coverage will therefore be required to ensure full protection of children.

Pulmonary non-tuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) disease epidemiology in sub-Saharan Africa is not as well described as for pulmonary tuberculosis. Earlier reviews of global NTM epidemiology only included subject-level data from one sub-Saharan Africa country. We systematically reviewed the literature and searched PubMed, Embase, Popline, OVID and Africa Wide Information for articles on prevalence and clinical relevance of NTM detection in pulmonary samples in sub-Saharan Africa. We applied the American Thoracic Society/Infectious Disease Society of America criteria to differentiate between colonisation and disease. Only 37 articles from 373 citations met our inclusion criteria. The prevalence of pulmonary NTM colonization was 7.5% (95% CI: 7.2%-7.8%), and 75.0% (2325 of 3096) occurred in males, 16.5% (512 of 3096) in those previously treated for tuberculosis and Mycobacterium avium complex predominated (27.7% [95% CI: 27.2-28.9%]). In seven eligible studies, 27.9% (266 of 952) of participants had pulmonary NTM disease and M. kansasii with a prevalence of 69.2% [95% CI: 63.2-74.7%] was the most common cause of pulmonary NTM disease. NTM species were unidentifiable in 29.2% [2,623 of 8,980] of isolates. In conclusion, pulmonary NTM disease is a neglected and emerging public health disease and enhanced surveillance is required.

Tobacco use is a major risk factor for tuberculosis (TB). Secondhand smoke (SHS) is also a risk factor for TB and to a lesser extent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection without disease. We investigated the added risk of M. tuberculosis infection due to SHS exposure in childhood contacts of TB cases in The Gambia. Participants were childhood household contacts aged ≤ 14 years of newly diagnosed pulmonary TB (PTB) cases. The intensity of exposure to the case was categorized according to whether contacts slept in the same room, same house, or a different house as the case. Contacts were tested with an enzyme-linked immunospot interferon gamma release assay. In multivariate regression models, M. tuberculosis infection was associated with increasing exposure to a case (odds ratios [OR]: 3.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.11-71.4, P < 0.001]) and with male gender (OR: 1.5 [95% CI: 1.12-2.11], P = 0.008). Tobacco use caused a 3-fold increase in the odds of M. tuberculosis infection in children who slept closest to a case who smoked within the same home compared with a nonsmoking case (OR: 8.0 [95% CI: 2.74-23.29] versus 2.4 [95% CI: 1.17-4.92], P < 0.001). SHS exposure as an effect modifier appears to greatly increase the risk of M. tuberculosis infection in children exposed to PTB cases. Smoking cessation campaigns may be important for reducing transmission of M. tuberculosis to children within households.

Background : Africa has the lowest childhood vaccination coverage worldwide. If the full benefits of childhood vaccination programmes are to be enjoyed in sub-Saharan Africa, all countries need to improve on vaccine delivery to achieve and sustain high coverage. In this paper, we review trends in vaccination coverage, dropouts between vaccine doses and explored the country-specific predictors of complete vaccination in West Africa.  Methods : We utilized datasets from the Demographic and Health Surveys Program, available for Benin, Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo, to obtain coverage for Bacillus Calmette-Guerin, polio, measles, and diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus (DPT) vaccines in children aged 12 - 23 months. We also calculated the DPT1-to-DPT3 and DPT1-to-measles dropouts, and proportions of the fully immunised child (FIC). Factors predictive of FIC were explored using Chi-squared tests and multivariable logistic regression.  Results : Overall, there was a trend of increasing vaccination coverage. The proportion of FIC varied significantly by country (range 24.1-81.4%, mean 49%). DPT1-to-DPT3 dropout was high (range 5.1% -33.9%, mean 16.3%). Similarly, DPT1-measles dropout exceeded 10% in all but four countries. Although no single risk factor was consistently associated with FIC across these countries, maternal education, delivery in a health facility, possessing a vaccine card and a recent post delivery visit to a health facility were the key predictors of complete vaccination.  Conclusions : The low numbers of fully immunised children and high dropout between vaccine doses highlights weaknesses and the need to strengthen the healthcare and routine immunization delivery systems in this region. Country-specific correlates of complete vaccination should be explored further to identify interventions required to increase vaccination coverage. Despite the promise of an increasing trend in vaccination coverage in West African countries, more effort is required to attain and maintain global vaccination coverage targets., Competing Interests: Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed.

Background: A Tuberculin skin test (TST) survey was conducted to assess the prevalence of latent TB Infection (LTBI) and to estimate the annual risk of M. tuberculosis infection (ARTI) in Gambian school children. The results are expected to contribute to understanding of Tuberculosis epidemiology in The Gambia., Methods: This was a nationwide, multi-cluster survey in children aged 6-11 years. Districts, 20 of 37, were selected by probability proportional to size and schools by simple random sampling. All TST were performed using the Mantoux method. Height and weight measurements were obtained for all participants. We calculated prevalence of LTBI using cut-off points of 10mm, the mirror and mixture modelling methods., Results: TST readings were completed 13,386 children with median age of 9 years (interquartile range [IQR] 8-10 years). Mixture analysis yielded a cut-off point of 12 mm, and LTBI prevalence of 6.9% [95%CI 6.47-7.37] and the ARTI was 0.75% [95%CI 0.60-0.91]. LTBI was associated gender and urban residence (p <0.01). Nutritional status was not associated with non-reactive TST or sizes of TST indurations. ARTI did not differ significantly by age, gender, BCG vaccination or residence., Conclusions: This estimates for LTBI prevalence and ARTI were low but this survey provides updated data. Malnutrition did not affect estimates of LTBI and ARTI. Given the low ARTI in this survey and the overlapping distribution of indurations with mixture modelling, further surveys may require complementary tests such as interferon gamma release assays or novel diagnostic tools.

To reach performance levels comparable to human experts, computer-aided detection (CAD) systems are typically optimized following a supervised learning approach that relies on large training databases comprising manually annotated lesions. However, manually outlining those lesions constitutes a difficult and time-consuming process that renders detailedly annotated data difficult to obtain. In this paper, we investigate an alternative approach, namely multiple-instance learning (MIL), that does not require detailed information for optimization. We have applied MIL to a CAD system for tuberculosis detection. Only the case condition (normal or abnormal) was required during training. Based upon the well-known miSVM technique, we propose an improved algorithm that overcomes miSVM's drawbacks related to positive instance underestimation and costly iteration. To show the advantages of our MIL-based approach as compared with a traditional supervised one, experiments with three X-ray databases were conducted. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was utilized as a performance measure. With the first database, for which training lesion annotations were available, our MIL-based method was comparable to the supervised system ( 0.86 versus 0.88 ). When evaluating the remaining databases, given their large difference with the previous image set, the most appealing strategy was to retrain the CAD systems. However, since only the case condition was available, only the MIL-based system could be retrained. This scenario, which is common in real-world applications, demonstrates the better adaptation capabilities of the proposed approach. After retraining, our MIL-based system significantly outperformed the supervised one ( 0.86 versus 0.79 and 0.91 versus 0.85 , and p=0.0002 , respectively).

Background: The identification of Mycobacterium-tuberculosis (Mtb) infected individuals remains a challenge due to an insufficient understanding of immune responses detected with the current diagnostic tests for latent tuberculosis i.e. the tuberculin skin test (TST) or IFN-γ release assays (IGRAs) and an inability to distinguish infection stages with current immunologic assays. Further classification based on markers other than IFN-γ may help to define markers of early Mtb infection., Methods: We assessed the TST status of Mtb-exposed household contacts at baseline and at 6 months. Contacts were classified into those with initial positive TST (TST+); those with baseline negative TST but TST conversion at 6 months (TST converters, TSTC) and those with persistently negative TST (PTST-). We assessed their short- and long-term immune responses to PPD and ESAT-6/CFP-10 (EC) via IFN-γ ELISPOT and a multiplex cytokine array in relation to TST status and compared them to those of TB cases to identify immune profiles associated with a spectrum of infection stages., Results: After 1 and 6 days stimulation with EC, 12 cytokines (IFN-γ, IL-2, IP-10, TNF-α, IL-13, IL-17, IL-10, GMCSF, MIP-1β, MCP-3, IL-2RA and IL-1A) were not different in TSTC compared to TST+ suggesting that robust adaptive Mtb-specific immune responses precede TST conversion. Stratifying contacts by baseline IFN-γ ELISPOT to EC in combination with TST results revealed that IP-10 and IL-17 were highest in the group of TST converters with positive baseline ELISPOT, suggesting they might be markers for recent infection., Conclusion: We describe a detailed analysis of Mtb-specific biomarker profiles in exposed household contacts in a TB endemic area that provides insights into the dynamic immune responses to Mtb infection and may help to identify biomarkers for 'at-risk' populations beyond TST and IGRA.

Background: Introduction of pneumococcal vaccines in Nigeria is a priority as part of the Accelerated Vaccine Introduction Initiative (AVI) of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI). However, country data on the burden of pneumococcal disease (IPD) is limited and coverage by available conjugate vaccines is unknown. This study was carried out to describe the pre vaccination epidemiology and population biology of pneumococcal carriage in Nigeria., Methods: This was a cross sectional survey. Nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS) were obtained from a population sample in 14 contiguous peri-urban Nigerian communities. Data on demographic characteristics and risk factor for carriage were obtained from all study participants. Pneumococci isolated from NPS were characterised by serotyping, antimicrobial susceptibility and Multi Locus Sequencing Typing (MLST)., Results: The prevalence of pneumococcal carriage was 52.5%. Carriage was higher in children compared to adults (67.4% vs. 26%), highest (≈90%) in infants aged <9 months and reduced significantly with increasing age (P<0.001). Serotypes 19F (18.6%) and 6A (14.4%) were most predominant. Potential vaccine coverage was 43.8%, 45.0% and 62% for PCV-7, PCV-10 and PCV-13 respectively. There were 16 novel alleles, 72 different sequence types (STs) from the isolates and 3 Sequence Types (280, 310 and 5543) were associated with isolates of more than one serotype indicative of serotype switching. Antimicrobial resistance was high for cotrimoxazole (93%) and tetracycline (84%), a third of isolates had intermediate resistance to penicillin. Young age was the only risk factor significantly associated with carriage., Conclusions: Pneumococcal carriage and serotype diversity is highly prevalent in Nigeria especially in infants. Based on the coverage of serotypes in this study, PCV-13 is the obvious choice to reduce disease burden and prevalence of drug resistant pneumococci. However, its use will require careful monitoring. Our findings provide sound baseline data for impact assessment following vaccine introduction in Nigeria.

Background: Qualitative and quantitative changes in IGRA response offer promise as biomarkers to monitor Tuberculosis (TB) drug therapy, and for the comparison of new interventions. We studied the decay kinetics of TB-specific antigen T-cell responses measured with an in-house ELISPOT assay during the course of therapy., Methods: Newly diagnosed sputum smear positive TB cases with typical TB chest radiographs were recruited. All patients were given standard anti-TB treatment. Each subject was followed up for 6 months and treatment outcomes were documented. Blood samples were obtained for the ESAT-6 and CFP-10 (EC) ELISPOT at diagnosis, 1-, 2-, 4- and 6-months. Qualitative and quantitative reversion of the ELISPOT results were assessed with McNemar test, conditional logistic regression and mixed-effects hierarchical Poisson models., Results: A total of 116 cases were recruited and EC ELISPOT was positive for 87% (95 of 109) at recruitment. There was a significant decrease in the proportion of EC ELISPOT positive cases over the treatment period (p<0.001). Most of the reversion occurred between the start and first month of treatment and at completion at 6 months. ESAT-6 had higher median counts compared to CFP-10 at all time points. Counts for each antigen declined significantly with therapy (p<0.001). Reverters had lower median SFUs at the start of treatment compared to non-Reverters for both antigens. Apart from the higher median counts for non-Reverters, no other risk factors for non-reversion were found., Conclusions: TB treatment induces qualitative and quantitative reversion of a positive in-house IGRA in newly diagnosed cases of active TB disease. As this does not occur reliably in the majority of cured individuals, qualitative and quantitative reversion of an IGRA ELISPOT has limited clinical utility as a surrogate marker of treatment efficacy.

Background: T cells producing multiple factors have been shown to be required for protection from disease progression in HIV but we have recently shown this not to be the case in TB. Subjects with active disease had a greater proportion of polyfunctional cells responding to ESAT-6/CFP-10 stimulation than their infected but non-diseased household contacts (HHC). We therefore wanted to assess this profile in subjects who had successfully completed standard TB chemotherapy., Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study using PBMC from TB cases (pre- and post-treatment) and HHC. Samples were stimulated overnight with TB antigens (ESAT-6/CFP-10 and PPD) and their CD4+ and CD8+ T cells were assessed for production of CD107a, IFN-gamma, IL-2 and TNF-alpha and the complexity of the responses was determined using SPICE and PESTLE software., Results and Conclusions: We found that an increase in complexity (i.e., production of more than 1 factor simultaneously) of the T cell profile was associated with TB disease and that this was significantly reduced following TB treatment. This implies that T cells are able to respond adequately to TB antigens with active disease (at least initially) but the ability of this response to protect the host from disease progression is hampered, presumably due to immune evasion strategies by the bacteria. These findings have implications for the development of new diagnostics and vaccine strategies.

Background: We compared the performance of tuberculin skin test (TST), Quantiferon-TB Gold in-tube (QFT-GIT), and T-SPOT.TB in diagnosing latent tuberculosis (LTBI) among childhood TB contacts in a TB endemic setting with high BCG coverage. We evaluated the performance of interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) and TST when combined in an algorithm., Methods: Childhood contacts of newly diagnosed TB patients were tested with TST, QFT-GIT, and T-SPOT. The level of exposure in contacts was categorized according to whether they slept in the same room, same house, or a different house as the index case. For the evaluation of combined test performance, prior estimates for prevalence of latent TB were used in Bayesian models that assumed conditional dependence between tests., Results: A total of 285 children were recruited. Overall, 26.5%, 33.0%, and 33.5% were positive for TST, T-SPOT, or QFT-GIT, respectively. All 3 tests responded to the gradient of sleeping proximity to the index case. Neither TST nor IGRA results were confounded by BCG vaccination. There was moderate agreement (kappa = 0.40-0.68) between all 3 tests. Combination of either IGRA with TST increased sensitivity (by 9.3%-9.6%) especially in contacts in the highest exposure category but was associated with loss of specificity (9.9%-11.3%)., Conclusion: IGRAs and TST are similar in their diagnostic performance for LTBI. An approximate 10% sensitivity benefit for using the TST and an IGRA in combination is associated with a slightly greater specificity loss. Testing strategies combining an IGRA and TST with an "or" statement may be useful only in situations where there is a high pretest probability of latent infection.

Population studies showed that there are differences in T-lymphocytes subpopulation of normal children in different regions, and reference values in an area might be different from another. This study compared the values in our population with CDC and WHO reference values. Blood samples from 279 healthy, HIV-negative children <12 years of age were analysed for complete blood count, CD3+, CD4+, CD8+ counts and percentages. Except for CD8%, mean values for all parameters measured significantly decreased with age. CD4+ counts were higher in females than males, P < .05. Using the WHO criteria, 15.9% of subjects had low total lymphocyte count and 20.6% had low CD4 count. Children <3 years had median CD4% lower than WHO normal values. Our median CD4+ counts correlated with CDC values. Values used by WHO in infants are higher than ours. We suggest that our children be assessed using CDC reference values which correlate with ours.

Most people infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB) actually maintain a strong immune response and are able to control bacterial growth (deemed latently infected (LTBI)), while approximately 10% progress to disease resulting in almost 2 million deaths per year. Determining the immune 'footprint' at specific stages of infection and disease will allow for better diagnostics, treatments and ultimately development of new vaccine candidates. In this study we performed multi-factorial flow cytometry on fresh blood from 56 TB cases, 46 Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) positive (LTBI) and 39 TST negative household contacts. We found a highly significant increase in granulocytes and decrease in B cells and invariant (Valpha24+Vbeta11+) NKT cells in TB cases compared to TST+ contacts (p<0.0001, p=0.007 and p=0.01 respectively) which were restored to LTBI levels following 6 months of TB treatment. Using support vector analysis, we found a combination of granulocyte and lymphocyte and/or NKT cell proportions allowed almost 90% correct classification into M. tuberculosis infection or disease. This work has important public health benefits in regards to diagnosis and treatment of TB in sub-Saharan Africa and in furthering our understanding of the requirements for protective immunity to TB.

Interferon gamma remains a key effector molecule that is still widely used as the most informative biomarker for screening human immune responses against tuberculosis, particularly in ELISPOT assays. We investigated the participation of CD4(+) and CD8(+) T lymphocytes in the PBMC responses to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) specific antigens in 33 TB cases and 49 contacts. Responses to ESAT-6 were higher than CFP-10. There was no significant difference in responses to both Mtb antigens between cases and contacts. PBMCs response to ESAT-6 but not CFP-10 in cases was significantly reduced by depletion of CD4(+) cells whereas CD8(+) cell depletion had no impact. In conclusion, ESAT-6 is a more recognized antigen in this population, and CD4(+) lymphocytes are the main participants in IFN-gamma response by ELISPOT. Thus, a decline of CD4(+) T lymphocytes below a critical level might affect the sensitivity of IFN-gamma release assays for detecting Mtb infection.

Background: IFN-gamma Release Assays (IGRAs) have been licensed for the diagnosis of latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI). Their performance may depend on assay format and may vary across populations and settings. We compared the diagnostic performance of an in-house T -cell and commercial whole blood-based IGRAs for the diagnosis of LTBI and TB disease in The Gambia., Methods: Newly diagnosed sputum smear positive cases and their household contacts were recruited. Cases and contacts were bled for IGRA and contacts had a Mantoux skin test. We assessed agreement and discordance between the tests and categorized a contact's level of M. tuberculosis exposure according to where s/he slept relative to a case: the same room, same house or a different house. We assessed the relationship between exposure and test results by multiple logistic regression., Results: In 80 newly diagnosed TB cases, the sensitivity of ELISPOT was 78.7% and for QFT-GIT was 64.0% (p = 0.047). Of 194 household contacts 57.1% and 58.8% were positive for ELISPOT and QFT-GIT respectively. The overall agreement between both IGRAs for LTBI in contacts was 71.4% and there was no significant discordance (p = 0.29). There was significant discordance between the IGRAs and TST. Neither IGRA nor TST had evidence of false positive results because of Bacille Calmette Guérin (BCG) vaccination. However, agreement between QFT-GIT and TST as well as discordance between both IGRAs and TST were associated with BCG vaccination. Both IGRAs responded to the M. tuberculosis exposure gradient and were positively associated with increasing TST induration (p = 0.003 for ELISPOT and p = 0.001 for QFT-GIT)., Conclusion: The ELISPOT test is more sensitive than the QFT-GIT for diagnosing TB disease. The two tests perform similarly in the diagnosis of LTBI in TB contacts. Significant discordance between the two IGRAs and between each and the TST remain largely unexplained.

Background: Pediatric HIV/AIDS is increasing in Nigeria through mother-to-child transmission. Lack of diagnostic facility and affordability of therapy are major constraints. These factors were examined in Lagos University Teaching Hospital (LUTH) between 1996 and 2002., Materials and Methods: Case records of pediatric HIV/AIDS patients were examined for age, sex, mode of diagnosis, associated illnesses, treatment outcome and socioeconomic and HIV status of the parents., Results: Out of 124 cases confirmed to have HIV/AIDS, 56.5% were aged <18 months and 89.5% had > or =4 clinical features at presentation. There was an increasing trend in the number of cases from 1996 to 2002. Diagnosis was by WHO clinical criteria as no polymerase chain reaction (PCR), was done and only 12.1% had CD4+ count done. The commonest associated illness was tuberculosis (25.8%). Only 20.2% were placed on antiretroviral drugs during the period. Mothers were significantly younger than fathers (P<0.05) and were more likely to be HIV positive. High rate of discharges against medical advice and default from follow-up occurred., Conclusion: Pediatric HIV/AIDS is on the increase at LUTH, and mothers were more HIV infected than fathers. The prohibitive cost of drugs prevented most patients from receiving therapy.

Objective: To compare the enzyme-linked immunospot (ELISPOT) assay with the tuberculin skin test (TST) in children for the diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in the Gambia., Methods: We divided child contacts of sputum smear-positive tuberculosis cases into 3 age categories (<5, 5-9, and 10-14 years) and assessed agreement between the 2 tests plus their relationship to prior Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination. We categorized a child's level of M tuberculosis exposure according to where he/she slept relative to a case: the same room, same house, or a different house. The relationship between exposure and test result was assessed by multiple logistic regression., Results: In child contacts of 287 cases, 225 (32.5%) of 693 were positive by TST and 232 (32.3%) of 718 by ELISPOT. The overall agreement between tests was 83% and the discordance was not significant. Both tests responded to the M tuberculosis exposure gradient in each age category. The percentage of those who were TST positive/ELISPOT negative increased with increasing exposure. At the lowest exposure level, the percentage of ELISPOT-positive children who were TST negative was increased compared with the highest exposure level. Neither test had evidence of false positive results because of BCG., Conclusions: In Gambian children, the ELISPOT is slightly less sensitive than the TST in the diagnosis of M tuberculosis infection from recent exposure, and neither test is confounded by prior BCG vaccination. Evidence of reduced TST sensitivity in subjects with the lowest known recent M tuberculosis exposure suggests that, when maximal sensitivity is important, the 2 tests may be best used together.