Search

Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity 1 . Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits 2,3 . However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being 4 . Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Standard measures of bodyweight (overweight and obese, for example) fail to reflect differences across populations and technological progress over time. This paper builds on the pioneering work of Hans Waaler (1984) and Robert Fogel (1994) to empirically estimate how the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and longevity varies across high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Importantly, we show that these differences are so profound that the share of national populations above mortality-minimizing bodyweight is not clearly greater in countries with higher overweight and obesity rates (as traditionally defined)-and in fact, relative to current standards, a larger share of low-income countries' populations can be unhealthily heavy., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This article provides an update on the global cancer burden using the GLOBOCAN 2020 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Worldwide, an estimated 19.3 million new cancer cases (18.1 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and almost 10.0 million cancer deaths (9.9 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) occurred in 2020. Female breast cancer has surpassed lung cancer as the most commonly diagnosed cancer, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases (11.7%), followed by lung (11.4%), colorectal (10.0 %), prostate (7.3%), and stomach (5.6%) cancers. Lung cancer remained the leading cause of cancer death, with an estimated 1.8 million deaths (18%), followed by colorectal (9.4%), liver (8.3%), stomach (7.7%), and female breast (6.9%) cancers. Overall incidence was from 2-fold to 3-fold higher in transitioned versus transitioning countries for both sexes, whereas mortality varied <2-fold for men and little for women. Death rates for female breast and cervical cancers, however, were considerably higher in transitioning versus transitioned countries (15.0 vs 12.8 per 100,000 and 12.4 vs 5.2 per 100,000, respectively). The global cancer burden is expected to be 28.4 million cases in 2040, a 47% rise from 2020, with a larger increase in transitioning (64% to 95%) versus transitioned (32% to 56%) countries due to demographic changes, although this may be further exacerbated by increasing risk factors associated with globalization and a growing economy. Efforts to build a sustainable infrastructure for the dissemination of cancer prevention measures and provision of cancer care in transitioning countries is critical for global cancer control., (© 2021 American Cancer Society.)

Background: Research associated with digital health technologies similar to the technologies themselves has proliferated in the last 2 decades. There are calls for these technologies to provide cost-effective health care for underserved populations. However, the research community has also underserved many of these populations. Older Indigenous women are one such segment of the population., Objective: Our objective is to systematically review the literature to consolidate and document what we know about how older Indigenous women living in high-income countries use digital health technology to enhance their health., Methods: We analyzed the peer-reviewed literature by systematically searching 8 databases in March 2022. We included studies published between January 2006 and March 2022 with original data specific to older Indigenous women from high-income countries that reported on the effectiveness, acceptability, and usability of some user-focused digital health technology. We incorporated 2 measures of quality for each study. We also conducted a thematic analysis and a lived experience analysis, which examined each paper from the perspectives of older Indigenous women. We followed the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines in this study., Results: Three papers met the inclusion criteria. The key findings were that older Indigenous women do not see themselves reflected in mainstream health messaging or other digital health offerings. They prefer an approach that considers their uniqueness and diversity. We also identified 2 significant gaps in the literature. First, research reporting on older Indigenous women from high-income countries' experiences with digital health technology is minimal. Second, the limited research related to older Indigenous women has not consistently engaged Indigenous people in the research process or governance., Conclusions: Older Indigenous women want digital health technologies to respond to their needs and preferences. Research is needed to understand their requirements and preferences to ensure equity as we move toward greater adoption of digital health technology. Engaging older Indigenous women throughout the research is essential to ensuring that digital health products and services are safe, usable, effective, and acceptable for older Indigenous women., (©Connie Henson, Felicity Chapman, Gina Shepherd, Bronwyn Carlson, Boe Rambaldini, Kylie Gwynne. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (https://www.jmir.org), 18.04.2023.)

The author examines the relative weight of pull and push factors affecting rural-urban migration in Turkey. Data are from the 1970, 1980, and 1985 censuses. "The results of this study indicate that, for the Turkish case, the effects of migration on urban growth had been contrary to those found in the developed countries, but that, as Turkish development increased over the time period 1965-85, the effects of migration increasingly came to resemble those of developed countries.", (excerpt)

Background: Separate studies suggest that the risks from smoking might vary between high-income (HICs), middle-income (MICs), and low-income (LICs) countries, but this has not yet been systematically examined within a single study using standardised approaches. We examined the variations in risks from smoking across different country income groups and some of their potential reasons., Methods: We analysed data from 134 909 participants from 21 countries followed up for a median of 11·3 years in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) cohort study; 9711 participants with myocardial infarction and 11 362 controls from 52 countries in the INTERHEART case-control study; and 11 580 participants with stroke and 11 331 controls from 32 countries in the INTERSTROKE case-control study. In PURE, all-cause mortality, major cardiovascular disease, cancers, respiratory diseases, and their composite were the primary outcomes for this analysis. Biochemical verification of urinary total nicotine equivalent was done in a substudy of 1000 participants in PURE., Findings: In PURE, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for the composite outcome in current smokers (vs never smokers) was higher in HICs (HR 1·87, 95% CI 1·65-2·12) than in MICs (1·41, 1·34-1·49) and LICs (1·35, 1·25-1·46; interaction p<0·0001). Similar patterns were observed for each component of the composite outcome in PURE, myocardial infarction in INTERHEART, and stroke in INTERSTROKE. The median levels of tar, nicotine, and carbon monoxide displayed on the cigarette packs from PURE HICs were higher than those on the packs from MICs. In PURE, the proportion of never smokers reporting high second-hand smoke exposure (≥1 times/day) was 6·3% in HICs, 23·2% in MICs, and 14·0% in LICs. The adjusted geometric mean total nicotine equivalent was higher among current smokers in HICs (47·2 μM) than in MICs (31·1 μM) and LICs (25·2 μM; ANCOVA p<0·0001). By contrast, it was higher among never smokers in LICs (18·8 μM) and MICs (11·3 μM) than in HICs (5·0 μM; ANCOVA p=0·0001)., Interpretation: The variations in risks from smoking between country income groups are probably related to the higher exposure of tobacco-derived toxicants among smokers in HICs and higher rates of high second-hand smoke exposure among never smokers in MICs and LICs., Funding: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments)., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

This paper analyses the effect of mortality rates (under-five and adult mortality) and population growth on the population ageing in a pooled sample of nine lower and upper middle European countries. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to investigate the ageing process of the population in the context of mortality mechanisms (under five and adult mortality) and of population growth in nine European LUMIs. The analysis is implemented in terms of Pooled least squares with cross-section fixed effects methodology. The novelty used within this research is White two-way cluster standard errors & covariance. This study is based on a database from the World Bank and UN covering the period 1995-2019. The expected results are making available quantitative analysis and insights in the context of mechanisms between the ageing process of population, mortality and population growth across these European LUMIs. Results are consistent with the notion that the increasing ageing process within these countries may be a consequence of the negative impact of population growth and from the influence of adult mortality for both sexes. The research results confirm the presence of solid ties of the mechanism between mortality, population growth and population ageing. Therefore, a clear point was provided that mortality acceleration will depend primarily on the level of population growth., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Increasing economic integration and global synchronization can be key for countries aiming to catch up in GDP per capita terms. Little attention has hitherto been placed in synchronization as determinant of convergence. In this paper we estimate the effect of economic globalization and synchronization on income convergence for a sample of 89 developed and developing countries in the period 1970-2015. We use a dynamic factor model and panel data techniques to undertake the objectives of the paper. We show that synchronized countries (those correlated with the factor) exhibit a higher response on GDP per capita growth with variations on the global business cycle. This implies that synchronization improves growth for that group in global expansionary phases, but also implies risks during global recessions. On the contrary, the effect on growth of an economic globalization index is less relevant for synchronized countries than for asynchronized countries. The latter result implies that asynchronized countries can benefit more increasing their levels of economic globalization., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The stability of food supply chains is crucial to the food security of people around the world. Since the beginning of 2020, this stability has been undergoing one of the most vigorous pressure tests ever due to the COVID-19 outbreak. From a mere health issue, the pandemic has turned into an economic threat to food security globally in the forms of lockdowns, economic decline, food trade restrictions, and rising food inflation. It is safe to assume that the novel health crisis has badly struck the least developed and developing economies, where people are particularly vulnerable to hunger and malnutrition. However, due to the recency of the COVID-19 problem, the impacts of macroeconomic fluctuations on food insecurity have remained scantily explored. In this study, the authors attempted to bridge this gap by revealing interactions between the food security status of people and the dynamics of COVID-19 cases, food trade, food inflation, and currency volatilities. The study was performed in the cases of 45 developing economies distributed to three groups by the level of income. The consecutive application of the autoregressive distributed lag method, Yamamoto's causality test, and variance decomposition analysis allowed the authors to find the food insecurity effects of COVID-19 to be more perceptible in upper-middle-income economies than in the least developed countries. In the latter, food security risks attributed to the emergence of the health crisis were mainly related to economic access to adequate food supply (food inflation), whereas in higher-income developing economies, availability-sided food security risks (food trade restrictions and currency depreciation) were more prevalent. The approach presented in this paper contributes to the establishment of a methodology framework that may equip decision-makers with up-to-date estimations of health crisis effects on economic parameters of food availability and access to staples in food-insecure communities.

Background: Capnography is universally accepted as an essential patient safety monitor in high-income countries (HICs) yet is often unavailable in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Increasing capnography availability has been proposed as one of many potential approaches to improving perioperative outcomes in LMICs. This scoping review summarises the existing literature on the effect of capnography on patient outcomes to help prioritise interventions and guide expansion of capnography in LMICs., Methods: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for articles published between 1980 and March 2019. Studies that assessed the impact of capnography on morbidity, mortality, or the use of airway interventions both inside and outside the operating room were included., Results: The search resulted in 7445 unique papers, and 31 were included for analysis. Retrospective and non-randomised data suggest capnography use may improve outcomes in the operating room, ICU, and emergency department, and during resuscitation. Prospective data on capnography use for procedural sedation suggest earlier detection of hypoventilation and a reduction in haemoglobin desaturation events. No randomised studies exist that assess the impact of capnography on patient outcomes., Conclusion: Despite widespread endorsement of capnography as a mandatory perioperative monitor, rigorous data demonstrating its impact on patient outcomes are limited, especially in LMICs. The association between capnography use and a reduction in serious airway complications suggests that closing the capnography gap in LMICs may represent a significant opportunity to improve patient safety. Additional data are needed to quantify the global capnography gap and better understand the barriers to capnography scale-up in LMICs., (Copyright © 2020 British Journal of Anaesthesia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Breastfeeding provides optimal nutrition for the healthy growth of infants and is associated with reduced risks of infectious diseases, child and adult obesity, type 2 diabetes, and other chronic diseases. Migration has been shown to influence breastfeeding especially among migrants from low-and-middle-income countries. This mixed-methods systematic review aimed to identify, synthesise, and appraise the international literature on the breastfeeding knowledge and experiences of African immigrant mothers residing in high-income countries. MEDLINE, CINAHL, Embase, PsychINFO, Scopus, and Web of Knowledge databases were searched from their inception to February 2019. Grey literature, reference, and citation searches were carried out and relevant journals hand-searched. Data extraction and quality assessment were independently carried out by two reviewers. An integrated mixed-methods approach adopting elements of framework synthesis was used to synthesise findings. The initial searches recovered 8,841 papers, and 35 studies were included in the review. Five concepts emerged from the data: (a) breastfeeding practices, showing that 90% of African mothers initiated breastfeeding; (b) knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes, which were mostly positive but included a desire for bigger babies; (c) influence of socio-demographic, economic, and cultural factors, leading to early supplementation; (d) support system influencing breastfeeding rates and duration; and (e) perception of health professionals who struggled to offer support due to culture and language barriers. African immigrant mothers were positive about breastfeeding and willing to adopt best practice but faced challenges with cultural beliefs and lifestyle changes after migration. African mothers may benefit from more tailored support and information to improve exclusive breastfeeding rates., (© 2020 The Authors. Maternal & Child Nutrition published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Many high- and middle-income countries face challenges in developing and maintaining a health workforce which can address changing population health needs. They have experimented with interventions which overlap with but have differences to those documented in low- and middle-income countries, where many of the recent literature reviews were undertaken. The aim of this paper is to fill that gap. It examines published and grey evidence on interventions to train, recruit, retain, distribute, and manage an effective health workforce, focusing on physicians, nurses, and allied health professionals in high- and middle-income countries. A search of databases, websites, and relevant references was carried out in March 2019. One hundred thirty-one reports or papers were selected for extraction, using a template which followed a health labor market structure. Many studies were cross-cutting; however, the largest number of country studies was focused on Canada, Australia, and the United States of America. The studies were relatively balanced across occupational groups. The largest number focused on availability, followed by performance and then distribution. Study numbers peaked in 2013-2016. A range of study types was included, with a high number of descriptive studies. Some topics were more deeply documented than others-there is, for example, a large number of studies on human resources for health (HRH) planning, educational interventions, and policies to reduce in-migration, but much less on topics such as HRH financing and task shifting. It is also evident that some policy actions may address more than one area of challenge, but equally that some policy actions may have conflicting results for different challenges. Although some of the interventions have been more used and documented in relation to specific cadres, many of the lessons appear to apply across them, with tailoring required to reflect individuals' characteristics, such as age, location, and preferences. Useful lessons can be learned from these higher-income settings for low- and middle-income settings. Much of the literature is descriptive, rather than evaluative, reflecting the organic way in which many HRH reforms are introduced. A more rigorous approach to testing HRH interventions is recommended to improve the evidence in this area of health systems strengthening.

Rubella infection generally leads to mild symptoms; otherwise, in pregnant women it can cause severe damages. The only way to prevent rubella is vaccine. Before the introduction of the vaccine, up to 4 babies in 1000 live births were born with CRS. This work aims to review the most important strategies for the elimination of CRS in upper and high-income countries. Papers were selected through a PubMed search up to January 2019, using keywords rubella, congenital rubella syndrome and epidemiology. Articles published in the last 12 years and referred to upper income and high-income countries in title or abstract were included. Sixty-five papers were selected dealing with one or more of the following strategies: increasing of rubella vaccination coverage in childbearing age women, males, immigrants; exploitation of all appropriate occasions; improving of rubella surveillance. Despite numerous suggestions and indications for valid strategies to eliminate rubella in pregnancy and congenital rubella syndrome, a practical application is often missing., (©2020 Pacini Editore SRL, Pisa, Italy.)

Capital flows is an important aspect of the international monetary system because they provide great direct and indirect benefits, and at the same time, they carry risks of vulnerability for countries with an open economy. Numerous works have studied the behavior of these flows and have developed models to predict sudden stop events. However, the existing models have limitations and the literature demands more research on the subject given that the accuracy of the models is still poor, and they have only been developed for emerging countries. This paper presents a new prediction model of sudden stop events of capital flows for both emerging countries and developed countries with the ability to estimate accurately future sudden stop scenarios globally. A sample of 103 countries was used, including 73 emerging countries and 30 developed countries, which has allowed the use of sample combinations that consider the regional heterogeneity of the warning indicators. To the sample under study, a method of decision trees has been applied, which has provided excellent prediction results given its ability to learn characteristics and create long-term dependencies from sequential data and time series. Our model has a great potential impact on the adequacy of macroeconomic policy against the risks derived from sudden stops of capital flows, providing tools that help to achieve financial stability at the global level., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Although Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting (FGM/C) is internationally considered a harmful practice, it is increasingly being medicalized allegedly to reduce its negative health effects, and is thus suggested as a harm reduction strategy in response to these perceived health risks. In many countries where FGM/C is traditionally practiced, the prevalence rates of medicalization are increasing, and in countries of migration, such as the United Kingdom, the United States of America or Sweden, court cases or the repeated issuing of statements in favor of presumed minimal forms of FGM/C to replace more invasive forms, has raised the debate between the medical harm reduction arguments and the human rights approach., Main Body: The purpose of this paper is to discuss the arguments associated with the medicalization of FGM/C, a trend that could undermine the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 5.3. The paper uses four country case studies, Egypt, Indonesia, Kenya and UK, to discuss the reasons for engaging in medicalized forms of FGM/C, or not, and explores the ongoing public discourse in those countries concerning harm reduction versus human rights, and the contradiction between medical ethics, national criminal justice systems and international conventions. The discussion is structured around four key hotly contested ethical dilemmas. Firstly, that the WHO definition of medicalized FGM/C is too narrow allowing medicalized FGM to be justified by many healthcare professionals as a form of harm reduction which contradicts the medical oath of do no harm. Secondly, that medicalized FGM/C is a human rights abuse with lifelong consequences, no matter who performs it. Thirdly, that health care professionals who perform medicalized FGM/C are sustaining cultural norms that they themselves support and are also gaining financially. Fourthly, the contradiction between protecting traditional cultural rights in legal constitutions versus human rights legislation, which criminalizes FGM/C., Conclusion: More research needs to be done in order to understand the complexities that are facilitating the medicalization of FGM/C as well as how policy strategies can be strengthened to have a greater de-medicalization impact. Tackling medicalization of FGM/C will accelerate the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal of ending FGM by 2030.

Background: The purpose of this paper is to systematically review the literature on the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and influenza immunization and to examine how certain measures of SES may influence interpretations of this relationship., Methods: We conducted a systematic review of existing peer-reviewed literature to evaluate the above relationship in the general population. Electronic databases (MEDLINE and EMBASE) were searched from January 2012 to May 2017 to identify English-language studies relevant to this review. Studies were included where influenza vaccination was explicitly reported as the dependent variable and SES as the independent variable. We limited our review to measures of SES that focus on education, income, social class, occupation, and deprivation. Studies that measured SES using other variables (e.g., race, ethnicity, geographic location, rural or urban status, or insurance status) were excluded. Studies were also excluded if they did not report on the human population or did not analyze original data. The population of interest included all age groups, levels of health status, and sociodemographic backgrounds. The review was also limited to World Bank high-income countries. Two authors independently screened full-text articles after obtaining a Kappa score of K = 0.867. The methodological quality of manuscripts was assessed using the appraisal tools developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute. Results were qualitatively reported and synthesized., Results: Of the 42 articles included in this review, 52.4% (n = 22) found that higher levels of SES resulted in higher levels of influenza vaccination; 4.5% (n = 2) reported a negative association; and 14.3% (n = 6) found no association. Just over a quarter (26.2%, n = 12) of articles reported mixed results., Conclusions: There was consistently a relationship between SES and influenza immunization, which varied according to how SES was measured. It is recommended that authors be explicit in defining the SES concept they are trying to capture and that they utilize multiple measures of SES (e.g., education, income, class).

Background: Migrants and refugees have important health needs and face inequalities in their health status. Health care delivery to this patient group has become a challenging public health focus in high income countries. This paper summarizes current knowledge on health care delivery to migrants and refugees in high-income countries from multiple perspectives., Methods: We performed a systematic literature review including primary source qualitative and quantitative studies between 2000 and 2017. Articles were excluded if the study setting was in low- or middle-income countries or focused on skilled migration. Quality assessment was done for qualitative and quantitative studies separately. Predefined variables were extracted in a standardized form. Authors were approached to provide missing information., Results: Of 185 identified articles, 35 were included in the final analysis. We identified three main topics of challenges in health care delivery: communication, continuity of care and confidence. All but one study included at least one of the three main topics and in 21/35 (60%) all three topics were mentioned. We further developed the 3C model and elaborated the interrelatedness of the three topics. Additional topics identified showed that the specific regional context with legal, financial, geographical and cultural aspects is important and further influences the 3C model., Conclusions: The 3C model gives a simple and comprehensive, patient-centered summary of key challenges in health care delivery for refugees and migrants. This concept is relevant to support clinicians in their day to day practice and in guiding stakeholders in priority setting for refugee and migrant health policies.

Background: Socioeconomic status is associated with differences in risk factors for cardiovascular disease incidence and outcomes, including mortality. However, it is unclear whether the associations between cardiovascular disease and common measures of socioeconomic status-wealth and education-differ among high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries, and, if so, why these differences exist. We explored the association between education and household wealth and cardiovascular disease and mortality to assess which marker is the stronger predictor of outcomes, and examined whether any differences in cardiovascular disease by socioeconomic status parallel differences in risk factor levels or differences in management., Methods: In this large-scale prospective cohort study, we recruited adults aged between 35 years and 70 years from 367 urban and 302 rural communities in 20 countries. We collected data on families and households in two questionnaires, and data on cardiovascular risk factors in a third questionnaire, which was supplemented with physical examination. We assessed socioeconomic status using education and a household wealth index. Education was categorised as no or primary school education only, secondary school education, or higher education, defined as completion of trade school, college, or university. Household wealth, calculated at the household level and with household data, was defined by an index on the basis of ownership of assets and housing characteristics. Primary outcomes were major cardiovascular disease (a composite of cardiovascular deaths, strokes, myocardial infarction, and heart failure), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Information on specific events was obtained from participants or their family., Findings: Recruitment to the study began on Jan 12, 2001, with most participants enrolled between Jan 6, 2005, and Dec 4, 2014. 160 299 (87·9%) of 182 375 participants with baseline data had available follow-up event data and were eligible for inclusion. After exclusion of 6130 (3·8%) participants without complete baseline or follow-up data, 154 169 individuals remained for analysis, from five low-income, 11 middle-income, and four high-income countries. Participants were followed-up for a mean of 7·5 years. Major cardiovascular events were more common among those with low levels of education in all types of country studied, but much more so in low-income countries. After adjustment for wealth and other factors, the HR (low level of education vs high level of education) was 1·23 (95% CI 0·96-1·58) for high-income countries, 1·59 (1·42-1·78) in middle-income countries, and 2·23 (1·79-2·77) in low-income countries (p interaction <0·0001). We observed similar results for all-cause mortality, with HRs of 1·50 (1·14-1·98) for high-income countries, 1·80 (1·58-2·06) in middle-income countries, and 2·76 (2·29-3·31) in low-income countries (p interaction <0·0001). By contrast, we found no or weak associations between wealth and these two outcomes. Differences in outcomes between educational groups were not explained by differences in risk factors, which decreased as the level of education increased in high-income countries, but increased as the level of education increased in low-income countries (p interaction <0·0001). Medical care (eg, management of hypertension, diabetes, and secondary prevention) seemed to play an important part in adverse cardiovascular disease outcomes because such care is likely to be poorer in people with the lowest levels of education compared to those with higher levels of education in low-income countries; however, we observed less marked differences in care based on level of education in middle-income countries and no or minor differences in high-income countries., Interpretation: Although people with a lower level of education in low-income and middle-income countries have higher incidence of and mortality from cardiovascular disease, they have better overall risk factor profiles. However, these individuals have markedly poorer health care. Policies to reduce health inequities globally must include strategies to overcome barriers to care, especially for those with lower levels of education., Funding: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments)., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: The late 1990s and early 2000s have seen a growth in north-south health research partnerships resulting from scientific developments such as those in genetic studies and development of statistical techniques and technological requirements for the analysis of large datasets. Despite these efforts, there is inadequate information representing the voice of African researchers as stakeholders experiencing partnership arrangements, particularly in Zambia. Furthermore, very little attention has been paid to capturing the practice of guidelines within partnerships. In this paper, we present achievements and highlight challenges faced by southern partners in north-south health research partnerships., Methods: A qualitative inquiry was employed using in-depth interviews developed using the Bergen Model of Collaborative Functioning with 20 key informants in Lusaka district in Zambia purposively sampled from a wide range of health research partnerships., Results: Partnerships produce benefits for southern partners, including evidence generation to influence policy, improved service delivery, infrastructure development and designing interventions to improve the healthcare of populations in greatest need. Most importantly, through partnerships, there is availability of financial resources to accomplish partnership goals. For success to be achieved, there must be effective communication and leadership, values and accountability that go into the process of partnership functioning. Trust interacts with different elements that create partnerships where there is co-ownership of study rewards. Challenging aspects of the interaction are largely due to funding mechanisms where 90% of the funding for health research is from northern partners. This funding mechanism results in power imbalances that lead to publication challenges, dictation of research agenda and ownership of samples and data leading to a general lack of motivation to collaborate., Conclusion: Mistrust has implications on joint working such that partners find it difficult to work together and produce results greater than their individual efforts. Property rights and resource sharing must be resolved early in the partnership and each partner's contributions recognised. These findings highlight areas that partnerships need to focus on to make the most of guidelines on research partnership with developing countries.

Background: Qualitative narrative analysis and case studies form the majority of the current peer-reviewed literature about the benefits of professional volunteering or international placements for healthcare professionals. These often describe generalised outcomes that are difficult to define or have multiple meanings (such as 'communication skills' or 'leadership') and are therefore difficult to measure. However, there is an interest from employers, professional groups and individual volunteers in generating metrics for monitoring personal and professional development of volunteers and comparing different volunteering experiences in terms of their impact on the volunteers. In this paper, we describe two studies in which we (a) consolidated qualitative research and individual accounts into a core outcome set and (b) tested the core outcome set in a large group of global health stakeholders., Method: We conducted a systematic review and meta-synthesis of literature to extract outcomes of international placements and variables that may affect these outcomes. We presented these outcomes to 58 stakeholders in global health, employing a Delphi method to reach consensus about which were 'core' and which were likely to be developed through international volunteering., Results: The systematic review of 55 papers generated 133 unique outcomes and 34 potential variables. One hundred fifty-six statements were then presented to the Delphi stakeholders, of which they agreed 116 were core to a wide variety of healthcare professional practice and likely to be developed through international experiences. The core outcomes (COs) were both negative and positive and included skills, knowledge, attitudes and outcomes for healthcare organisations., Conclusions: We summarised existing literature and stakeholder opinion into a core outcome set of 116 items that are core to healthcare professional practice and likely to be developed through international experiences. We identified, in the literature, a set of variables that could affect learning outcomes. The core outcome set will be used in a future study to develop a psychometric assessment tool.

Background: Reported cases of vitamin D3 deficiency have been increasing in incidence worldwide. Although there is a lack of consensus relating to optimal levels of vitamin D, generally serum 25-(OH)D concentrations lower than 50 nmol/L (20 ng/mL) are at least considered to be detrimental to bone health., Aim: Aim of this systematic review is to investigate if occupations, and specifically shiftworking and indoor working, may be considered as possible contributors to the increased incidence of vitamin D3 deficiency in industrialized nations., Materials and Methods: Systematic review was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement using PubMed, Scopus, and ISI Web of Knowledge databases., Results: Overall 90 papers were found, 23 articles through PubMed, 30 through Scopus, and 37 through ISI Web of Knowledge. Successively, 46 duplicates and 34 articles that did not respect the inclusion criteria were excluded. Finally 10 articles were selected: 9 cross-sectional studies and 1 systematic review. Results of the studies included revealed that certain occupations are either suffering from, or have a predilection to suffer from, a deficiency of this vitamin. Shiftworkers and indoor workers are consistently reported as being the occupational group most likely to suffer from a deficiency of vitamin D3. It would appear prudent to investigate the potential of providing nutritional education to workers in addition to including preventative measures in the workplace.

Background: National licensing examinations (NLEs) are large-scale examinations usually taken by medical doctors close to the point of graduation from medical school. Where NLEs are used, success is usually required to obtain a license for full practice. Approaches to national licensing, and the evidence that supports their use, varies significantly across the globe. This paper aims to develop a typology of NLEs, based on candidacy, to explore the implications of different examination types for workforce planning., Methods: A systematic review of the published literature and medical licensing body websites, an electronic survey of all medical licensing bodies in highly developed nations, and a survey of medical regulators., Results: The evidence gleaned through this systematic review highlights four approaches to NLEs: where graduating medical students wishing to practice in their national jurisdiction must pass a national licensing exam before they are granted a license to practice; where all prospective doctors, whether from the national jurisdiction or international medical graduates, are required to pass a national licensing exam in order to practice within that jurisdiction; where international medical graduates are required to pass a licensing exam if their qualifications are not acknowledged to be comparable with those students from the national jurisdiction; and where there are no NLEs in operation. This typology facilitates comparison across systems and highlights the implications of different licensing systems for workforce planning., Conclusion: The issue of national licensing cannot be viewed in isolation from workforce planning; future research on the efficacy of national licensing systems to drive up standards should be integrated with research on the implications of such systems for the mobility of doctors to cross borders., (© 2018 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.)

Introduction: Task shifting interventions are intended to both deliver clinically effective treatments to reduce disease burden and address health inequities or population vulnerability. Little is known about how health equity and population vulnerability are defined and measured in research focused on task shifting. This systematic review will address the following questions: Among task shifting interventions in high-income settings that have been studied using randomised controlled trials or variants, how are health inequity or population vulnerability identified and defined? What methods and indicators are used to describe, characterise and measure the population's baseline status and the intervention's impacts on inequity and vulnerability?, Methods and Analysis: Studies were identified through database searches (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Web of Science). Eligible studies will be randomised controlled trials published since 2004, conducted in high-income countries, concerning task shifting interventions to treat any disease, in any population that may face health disadvantage as defined by the PROGRESS-Plus framework (place of residence, race/ethnicity/culture/language, occupation, gender/sex, religion, social capital, socioeconomic position, age, disability, sexual orientation, other vulnerable groups). We will conduct independent and duplicate title and abstract screening, then identify related papers from the same programme of research through further database and manual searching. From each programme of research, we will extract study details, and definitions and measures of health equity or population vulnerability based on the PROGRESS-Plus framework. Two investigators will assess the quality of reporting and measurement related to health equity and vulnerability using a scale developed for this study. A narrative synthesis will highlight similarities and differences between the gathered studies and offer critical analyses and implications., Ethics and Dissemination: This review does not involve primary data collection, does not constitute research on human subjects and is not subject to additional institutional ethics review or informed consent procedures. Dissemination will include open-access peer-reviewed publication and academic conference presentations.PROSPERO Registration Number CRD42017049959., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Cryptosporidium is a protozoan parasite of humans and other animals worldwide and is one of the greatest contributors to human diarrhoeal illness. Transmission can occur indirectly via contaminated food or water, or directly via contact with animals or other infected people. Risk exposures are often identified from outbreak investigations, but a subset of cases remains unexplained, and sources for sporadic disease and pathways to infection are still unclear. Given the few systematic syntheses of reported evidence in industrialised populations, the aim of this review is to consolidate the literature to describe exposures associated with human cryptosporidiosis in industrialised countries, specifically including the UK, and describe any differences between outbreak-associated and sporadic disease., Methods/design: Where relevant, methods will follow the recommendations made in the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions. Three steps will be used to identify the literature including electronic database searching using PubMed, Scopus, Embase and Web of Science; reference list trawling; and an exploration of the grey literature. Screening of results will be undertaken by two reviewers using pre-defined criteria. Studies conducted in industrialised countries and reporting on human subjects will be included. All observational studies will be included where they report exposures and relevant quantitative results. Data will be extracted using a standardised form. Study quality will be assessed using the ROBINS-I tool. Data will be summarised presenting the papers' main findings including population under study, outcomes, and exposures, and whether these were considered outbreak or sporadic cases. A narrative summary will also be included. Where populations are appropriate, available data will be pooled in a meta-analysis combining the significant exposures across studies., Discussion: This review aims to consolidate the evidence for transmission routes and exposures for Cryptosporidium in industrialised countries, with particular reference to how these may apply to the UK. In addition, the review will seek to describe differences between outbreak and sporadic cases. This will help to identify those most vulnerable, highlighting pathways where interventions and public health response may be appropriate., Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO number CRD42017056589 .

Surveys in high-income countries show that inadequacies and deficiencies can be common for some nutrients, particularly in vulnerable subgroups of the population. Inadequate intakes, high requirements for rapid growth and development, or age- or disease-related impairments in nutrient intake, digestion, absorption, or increased nutrient losses can lead to micronutrient deficiencies. The consequent subclinical conditions are difficult to recognize if not screened for and often go unnoticed. Nutrient deficiencies can be persistent despite primary nutrition interventions that are aimed at improving dietary intakes. Secondary prevention that targets groups at high risk of inadequacy or deficiency, such as in the primary care setting, can be a useful complementary approach to address persistent nutritional gaps. However, this strategy is often underestimated and overlooked as potentially cost-effective means to prevent future health care costs and to improve the health and quality of life of individuals. In this paper, the authors discuss key appraisal criteria to consider when evaluating the benefits and disadvantages of a secondary prevention of nutrient deficiencies through screening., Competing Interests: The authors are employed by DSM Nutritional Products, a manufacturer of vitamins and supplier to the food, dietary supplement, and pharmaceutical industries. There were no other conflicts of interest.

Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government's proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts.

Patient travel across borders to access healthcare is becoming increasingly common and widespread. Patients moving from high income to middle income countries for healthcare is well documented, with patients seeking treatments that are cheaper or more readily available than at home. Less well understood is when patients move from one low income country to another or from a low income country to a higher income country. In this paper, a realist review was undertaken to explore why, in what contexts and how patients from lower income countries travel to countries with the same, or more advanced, economies for planned healthcare. Based on an initial scoping of the literature and discussions with key informants, we generated an initial theory and set of propositions about why, how, who and in what contexts people cross international borders for planned healthcare. We then systematically located and synthesized (1) peer-reviewed studies from the Scopus, Embase, Web of Science and Econlit databases; (2) non-indexed reports using key informants and Google; and (3) papers from the reference lists of included documents, to glean supportive or contradictory evidence for our initial propositions. As we reviewed the literature and extracted our data, we drew on the work of Pierre Bourdieu to understand the interplay between material and non-material capital and cognitive processes in decisions to cross borders for healthcare. Patient travel was largely undertaken due to a lack of services in the home country and/or unacceptability of local services, with decisions on when, and where, to travel, usually made within the patient's social networks. They were able to travel via use of multiple resources, including social networks, economic and cultural capital, and habitus. Those patients with greater volumes of the aforementioned factors had greater healthcare options; however, even those with limited resources engaged in patient travel. Patient movement challenges traditional ways of thinking about public health and the notion of health systems contained within the nation state. Further research is needed to better understand the effects of patient travel, and how to harness the benefits of patient travel without exacerbating existing health inequalities.

Background: Indigenous children living in high income countries have a consistently high prevalence of mental health problems. We aimed to identify psychosocial risk and protective factors for mental health in this setting., Methods: A systematic review of studies published between 1996 and 2016 that quantitatively evaluated the association between psychosocial variables and mental health among Indigenous children living in high income countries was conducted. Psychosocial variables were grouped into commonly occurring domains. Individual studies were judged to provide evidence for an association between a domain and either good mental health, poor mental health, or a negligible or inconsistent association. The overall quality of evidence across all studies for each domain was assessed using the Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) guidelines., Results: Forty-seven papers were eligible (mainland US 30 [64%], Canada 8 [17%], Australia 7 [15%], Hawaii 4 [9%]), including 58,218 participants aged 4-20 years. Most papers were cross-sectional (39, 83%) and measured negative mental health outcomes (41, 87%). Children's negative cohesion with their families and the presence of adverse events appeared the most reliable predictors of increased negative mental health outcomes. Children's substance use, experiences of discrimination, comorbid internalising symptoms, and negative parental behaviour also provided evidence of associations with negative mental health outcomes. Positive family and peer relationships, high self-esteem and optimism were associated with increased positive mental health outcomes., Conclusions: Quantitative research investigating Indigenous children's mental health is largely cross-sectional and focused upon negative outcomes. Indigenous children living in high income countries share many of the same risk and protective factors associated with mental health. The evidence linking children's familial environment, psychological traits, substance use and experiences of discrimination with mental health outcomes highlights key targets for more concerted efforts to develop initiatives to improve the mental health of Indigenous children.

This paper reviews the 2016 CIOMS International Ethical Guidelines for Health-related Research Involving Humans. I argue that these new guidelines constitute a significant improvement over the guidelines they replace. However, the procedures put in place by CIOMS resulted in an authoring group consisting of a majority of authors and advisors hailing from the global North, while the guidelines squarely aim at influencing policies in the global South. I question CIOMS' strategy to produce a consensus based document, and raise concerns about frequent appeals to authority designed to establish the credibility of these guidelines and the processes that led to them. It is unclear why it should be the role of a small organisation such as CIOMS to try to guide the research ethics policies in countries of the global South.

Animal disease outbreaks generate a range of economic and non-economic impacts. While a significant number of research studies have estimated the effects of various diseases in a variety of contexts, examining the differential impacts and implications associated with the introduction of a novel disease into a developing country, as opposed to a developed one, is a rich area for further research. In this paper, the authors highlight some of the key dimensions and implications associated with the impacts of new diseases, how they differ in different contexts, and their implications for public policy.

Background: As part of efforts to inform the development of a global human resources for health (HRH) strategy, a comprehensive methodology for estimating HRH supply and requirements was described in a companion paper. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the application of that methodology, using data publicly available online, to simulate the supply of and requirements for midwives, nurses, and physicians in the 32 high-income member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) up to 2030., Methods: A model combining a stock-and-flow approach to simulate the future supply of each profession in each country-adjusted according to levels of HRH participation and activity-and a needs-based approach to simulate future HRH requirements was used. Most of the data to populate the model were obtained from the OECD's online indicator database. Other data were obtained from targeted internet searches and documents gathered as part of the companion paper., Results: Relevant recent measures for each model parameter were found for at least one of the included countries. In total, 35% of the desired current data elements were found; assumed values were used for the other current data elements. Multiple scenarios were used to demonstrate the sensitivity of the simulations to different assumed future values of model parameters. Depending on the assumed future values of each model parameter, the simulated HRH gaps across the included countries could range from shortfalls of 74 000 midwives, 3.2 million nurses, and 1.2 million physicians to surpluses of 67 000 midwives, 2.9 million nurses, and 1.0 million physicians by 2030., Conclusions: Despite important gaps in the data publicly available online and the short time available to implement it, this paper demonstrates the basic feasibility of a more comprehensive, population needs-based approach to estimating HRH supply and requirements than most of those currently being used. HRH planners in individual countries, working with their respective stakeholder groups, would have more direct access to data on the relevant planning parameters and would thus be in an even better position to implement such an approach.

This paper employs a three-stage approach to estimate low carbon economy efficiency in the largest twenty CO₂ emitting countries from 2000 to 2012. The approach includes the following three stages: (1) use of a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model with undesirable output to estimate the low carbon economy efficiency and calculate the input and output slacks; (2) use of a stochastic frontier approach to eliminate the impacts of external environment variables on these slacks; (3) re-estimation of the efficiency with adjusted inputs and outputs to reflect the capacity of the government to develop a low carbon economy. The results indicate that the low carbon economy efficiency performances in these countries had worsened during the studied period. The performances in the third stage are larger than that in the first stage. Moreover, in general, low carbon economy efficiency in Annex I countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is better than that in Non-Annex I countries. However, the gap of the average efficiency score between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries in the first stage is smaller than that in the third stage. It implies that the external environment variables show greater influence on Non-Annex I countries than that on Annex I countries. These external environment variables should be taken into account in the transnational negotiation of the responsibility of promoting CO₂ reductions. Most importantly, the developed countries (mostly in Annex I) should help the developing countries (mostly in Non-Annex I) to reduce carbon emission by opening or expanding the trade, such as encouraging the import and export of the energy-saving and sharing emission reduction technology., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Background: Babies born to adolescent mothers have been shown to have poorer outcomes compared to those born to adults. Nutritional status may have an important role to play in improving the health of pregnant adolescents; however there is a lack of evidence regarding the adequacy of adolescent diets during pregnancy. This systematic review aims to examine what is known about the nutritional status of adolescent pregnant women., Methods: A systematic search of the literature identified 21 studies which met the inclusion criteria for the review. Primary research papers using any methods were included where they were published in English between January 1995 and May 2015 and included measurements of nutrient intakes or biological markers of nutritional status in pregnant women aged 11-19 years. Individual study data was first summarised narratively before study means were pooled to give an estimate of nutritional status in the population., Results: The results show that individual studies reported intakes of energy, fibre and a number of key micronutrients which were below recommended levels. Biological markers of iron and selenium status also showed cause for concern. Pooled analysis of individual means as a percentage of UK Dietary Reference Intakes showed intakes of vitamin D (34.8 % CI 0-83.1) to be significantly below recommendations (p = 0.05). Serum selenium levels were also found to be low (61.8 μg/L, CI 39-84)., Conclusions: This review has identified a number of areas where the nutritional status of pregnant adolescents is sub-optimal, which may have implications for the health of adolescent mothers and their babies. It was not however possible to examine the impact of supplement use or socio-demographic characteristics which limits the interpretation these results. Further work is needed to establish the characteristics of those most at risk within this population, how this differs from adult pregnant women and the role of supplementation in achieving adequate nutrition.

Background: To investigate the existing evidence base for the validity of large-scale licensing examinations including their impact., Methods: Systematic review against a validity framework exploring: Embase (Ovid Medline); Medline (EBSCO); PubMed; Wiley Online; ScienceDirect; and PsychINFO from 2005 to April 2015. All papers were included when they discussed national or large regional (State level) examinations for clinical professionals, linked to examinations in early careers or near the point of graduation, and where success was required to subsequently be able to practice. Using a standardized data extraction form, two independent reviewers extracted study characteristics, with the rest of the team resolving any disagreement. A validity framework was used as developed by the American Educational Research Association, American Psychological Association, and National Council on Measurement in Education to evaluate each paper's evidence to support or refute the validity of national licensing examinations., Results: 24 published articles provided evidence of validity across the five domains of the validity framework. Most papers (n = 22) provided evidence of national licensing examinations relationships to other variables and their consequential validity. Overall there was evidence that those who do well on earlier or on subsequent examinations also do well on national testing. There is a correlation between NLE performance and some patient outcomes and rates of complaints, but no causal evidence has been established., Conclusions: The debate around licensure examinations is strong on opinion but weak on validity evidence. This is especially true of the wider claims that licensure examinations improve patient safety and practitioner competence.

Background: Over the past half century the global tendency for improvements in longevity has been uneven across countries. This has resulted in widening of inter-country disparities in life expectancy. Moreover, the pattern of divergence appears to be driven in part by processes at the level of country groupings defined in geopolitical terms. A systematic quantitative analysis of this phenomenon has not been possible using demographic decomposition approaches as these have not been suitably adapted for this purpose. In this paper we present an elaboration of conventional decomposition techniques to provide a toolkit for analysis of the inter-country variance, and illustrate its use by analyzing trends in life expectancy in developed countries over a 40-year period., Methods: We analyze trends in the population-weighted variance of life expectancy at birth across 36 developed countries and three country groups over the period 1970-2010. We have modified existing decomposition approaches using the stepwise replacement algorithm to compute age components of changes in the total variance as well as variance between and within groups of Established Market Economies (EME), Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The method is generally applicable to the decomposition of temporal changes in any aggregate index based on a set of populations., Results: The divergence in life expectancy between developed countries has generally increased over the study period. This tendency dominated from the beginning of 1970s to the early 2000s, and reversed only after 2005. From 1970 to 2010, the total standard deviation of life expectancy increased from 2.0 to 5.6 years among men and from 1.0 to 3.6 years among women. This was determined by the between-group effects due to polarization between the EME and the FSU. The latter contrast was largely fueled by the long-term health crisis in Russia. With respect to age, the increase in the overall divergence was attributable to between-country differences in mortality changes at ages 15-64 years compared to those aged 65 and older. The within-group variance increased, especially among women. This change was mostly produced by growing mortality differences at ages 65 and older., Conclusions: From the early 1970s to the mid-2000s, the strong divergence in life expectancy across developed countries was largely determined by the between-group variance and mortality polarization linked to the East-West geopolitical division.

Objective: The design of health insurance, and the role out-of-pocket (OOP) payments play in it, is a key policy issue as rising health costs have encouraged greater cost-sharing measures. This paper compares the percentage of Americans spending large amounts OOP to meet their health needs with percentages in eight other developed countries. By disaggregating by age and income, the paper focuses on the poor and elderly populations within each., Data Source: The study uses nationally representative household survey data made available through the Luxembourg Income Study. It includes nations with high, medium, and low levels of OOP spending., Study Design: Households have high medical spending when their OOP expenditures exceed a threshold share of income. I calculate the share of each nation's population, as well as subpopulations within it, with high OOP expenditures., Principal Findings: The United States is not alone in exposing large numbers of citizens to high OOP expenses. In six of the other eight countries, one-quarter or more of low-income citizens devoted at least 5 percent of their income to OOP expenses, and in all but two countries, more than 1 in 10 elderly citizens had high medical expenses., Conclusions: For some populations in the sample nations, health insurance does not provide adequate financial protection and likely contributes to inequities in health care delivery and outcomes., (© Health Research and Educational Trust.)

Background: Rates of youth violence are disproportionately high in many low- and middle-income countries [LMICs] but existing reviews of risk factors focus almost exclusively on high-income countries. Different search strategies, including non-English language searches, might be required to identify relevant evidence in LMICs. This paper discusses methodological issues in systematic reviews aiming to include evidence from LMICs, using the example of a recent review of risk factors for child conduct problems and youth violence in LMICs., Methods: We searched the main international databases, such as PsycINFO, Medline and EMBASE in English, as well as 12 regional databases in Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Spanish, Portuguese and Russian. In addition, we used internet search engines and Google Scholar, and contacted over 200 researchers and organizations to identify potentially eligible studies in LMICs., Results: The majority of relevant studies were identified in the mainstream databases, but additional studies were also found through regional databases, such as CNKI, Wangfang, LILACS and SciELO. Overall, 85% of eligible studies were in English, and 15% were reported in Chinese, Spanish, Portuguese, Russian or French. Among eligible studies in languages other than English, two-thirds were identified only by regional databases and one-third was also indexed in the main international databases., Conclusions: There are many studies on child conduct problems and youth violence in LMICs which have not been included in prior reviews. Most research on these subjects in LMICs has been produced in the last two-three decades and mostly in middle-income countries, such as China, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and Russia. Based on our findings, it appears that many studies of child conduct problems and youth violence in LMICs are reported in English, Chinese, Spanish and Portuguese, but few such studies are published in French, Arabic or Russian. If non-English language searches and screening had not been conducted in the current review, 15% of eligible studies would have been missed. Although there are benefits to non-English language searches and the inclusion of non-English studies in meta-analyses, systematic reviewers also need to consider the resources required to incorporate multi-lingual research.

This paper revisits work on the socio-political amplification of risk, which predicts that those living in developing countries are exposed to greater risk than residents of developed nations. This prediction contrasts with the neoliberal expectation that market driven improvements in working conditions within industrialising/developing nations will lead to global convergence of hazard exposure levels. It also contradicts the assumption of risk society theorists that there will be an ubiquitous increase in risk exposure across the globe, which will primarily affect technically more advanced countries. Reviewing qualitative evidence on the impact of structural adjustment reforms in industrialising countries, the export of waste and hazardous waste recycling to these countries and new patterns of domestic industrialisation, the paper suggests that workers in industrialising countries continue to face far greater levels of hazard exposure than those of developed countries. This view is confirmed when a data set including 105 major multi-fatality industrial disasters from 1971 to 2000 is examined. The paper concludes that there is empirical support for the predictions of socio-political amplification of risk theory, which finds clear expression in the data in a consistent pattern of significantly greater fatality rates per industrial incident in industrialising/developing countries.

Climate change policies have stimulated a shift towards renewable energy sources such as biomass. The economic crisis of 2008 has also increased the practice of household biomass burning as it is often cheaper than using oil, gas or electricity for heating. As a result, household biomass combustion is becoming an important source of air pollutants in the European Union.This position paper discusses the contribution of biomass combustion to pollution levels in Europe, and the emerging evidence on the adverse health effects of biomass combustion products.Epidemiological studies in the developed world have documented associations between indoor and outdoor exposure to biomass combustion products and a range of adverse health effects. A conservative estimate of the current contribution of biomass smoke to premature mortality in Europe amounts to at least 40 000 deaths per year.We conclude that emissions from current biomass combustion products negatively affect respiratory and, possibly, cardiovascular health in Europe. Biomass combustion emissions, in contrast to emissions from most other sources of air pollution, are increasing. More needs to be done to further document the health effects of biomass combustion in Europe, and to reduce emissions of harmful biomass combustion products to protect public health., (Copyright ©ERS 2015.)