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JEL codes: E24, E31, E43, E50, E61, E71 In long-distance running, the last mile is often said to be the hardest. With the finish line within reach, one must push [...]

1. INTRODUCTION Throughout 2022, US labor markets remained stubbornly tight despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates rapidly in an effort to cool demand and tame inflation. The latest unemployment [...]

FOMC forecast revisions released with the FOMC statement showed surprising downward revisions in the 2024 GDP forecasts relative to the June SEP, leaving a central tendency of 1.9%-2.1% that undershoots [...]

The Fed surprised its critics and cheered advocates of greater economic expansion today by voting to cut short-term interest rates a full half-point. The decision was said to be a [...]

FOMC forecast revisions to be released Wednesday with the FOMC statement will be scrutinized, especially the dot plot, for clues on the rate path. The market is currently pricing in [...]

US stocks jumped on Friday as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 aimed for a five-day win streak. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut announcement next [...]

Market Action: Treasury yields richened slightly in the wake of the rise in jobless claims, ignoring the slightly hotter PPI numbers. The data are in line with a quarter point [...]

Looking Ahead: the CPI is out of the way after surprising and disappointing uptick in the core rate, as well as the Powell's 'supercore' rate, services excluding housing, which rose [...]

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased 142k in August, below expectations. Additionally, the prior two months were revised down a net -86k, with July now at an 89k (was 114k) gain and [...]

The August jobs report, released this morning by the Labor Department, was soft again. The economy added just 142,000 jobs last month, continuing a weakening trend. This was a shade [...]

Losing your job is now becoming just another way to build your viral brand, said Jo Constantz in Bloomberg Businessweek. Layoffs used to be considered “a private matter.” But the [...]

Treasury Market Summary: a mix of data left the markets choppy in relatively tentative trading awaiting the crucial August jobs report. Weaker than expected ADP private payrolls and a slight [...]

U.S. nonfarm payroll preview: analysts're forecasting a 175k increase in August nonfarm payrolls. This would follow gains of 114k in July, 179k in June, and 216k in May, and it [...]

During the past few months, the “Sahm rule” has become a ubiquitous part of the conversation surrounding issues such as the (https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy) economy, unemployment and the Federal Reserve interest rate [...]

Market Update: Treasury yields popped higher on the upward revision in Q2 GDP amid strength in consumption. The dip in jobless claims and the rise in the GDP price index [...]

Macquarie strategists are warning of the possibility of a US recession without the Fed's rate cuts. US unemployment rose to 4.3% in July, and consumer sentiment was mixed in August. [...]

Fed funds futures are reflecting -33 bps in cuts by September, fully priced for a -25 bp cut, and some 35% risk for a -50 bp reduction. The market awaits [...]

South Africa’s escalating unemployment crisis, exacerbated by economic challenges, underscores the urgent need for innovative solutions. As a potent driver of economic growth and job creation, entrepreneurship offers a viable [...]

Stocks started Thursday on a positive note, but lost steam as the session wore on. Today's choppy price action came as Wall Street parsed through a handful of economic data [...]

Indexes fell Thursday as investors wait for comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole. Investors are eager for any indication of how steep cuts will be through the [...]

Several Fed officials saw a 'plausible case' to cut interest rates in July, according to minutes released on Wednesday. They cited disinflation and rising unemployment. Meanwhile, a majority of officials [...]

Stocks look like they might get the best of both worlds: falling inflation and a still-strong economy. Investors were spooked briefly this month after jobs data came in soft, fueling [...]

U.S. week ahead: Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech next Friday is the highlight of a thin slate ahead. His stance should be in line his July 31 press conference, [...]

US stocks dipped Friday, pumping the breaks on a big Thursday rally following strong economic data. The S&P 500 is on track to break a six-day winning streak. Investors are [...]

Market Action: it appears the fears of the economy's contraction were greatly exaggerated. The hotter than expected combo of retail sales and initial jobless claims are further wiping out expectations [...]

Treasury Market Summary: trading was choppy and rather directionless midweek as the markets failed to get fresh direction from CPI, while turning attention to Thursday's retail sales, and jobless claims, [...]

Looking Ahead: attention turns to Thursday's reports on retail sales and jobless claims for clues on a -25 bp or a -50 bp September rate cut. Also on tap are [...]

Market Update: Treasuries have reversed post-CPI losses and yields are modestly lower on the session as the market still looks for rate cuts this year, but with less risk for [...]

Market Update: European stock markets have pared early gains and are slightly lower, after a largely stronger close across Asia. Japanese indexes rallied and the Nikkei closed 3.5% higher as [...]

Fed Governor Bowman said inflation is still 'uncomfortably above the Committee's 2% goal,' in comments at a banking conference on Saturday. She is an important voice on the Fed and [...]

Market Update: Equities remained supported and European indexes are broadly higher, as are U.S. futures. DAX and FTSE 100 are off session highs, but still up 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, [...]

Market Update: The equity rally that boosted Wall Street on Thursday, started to fizzle out overnight. A decline in U.S. initial jobless claims helped to boost sentiment yesterday, but risk [...]

Investors are facing mixed signals from a cooling economy and expectations for continued corporate earnings growth. A surprise surge in unemployment has raised recession fears, but they might be unfounded. [...]

Market Action: the markets are hyper-focused on weekly jobless claims today, given the lack of other data this week. The FOMC typically warns against focusing on one month's data, so [...]

U.S. jobless claims preview: all eyes are on initial jobless claims Thursday as analysts look for more info to help corroborate or refute the signs of cooling from Friday's nonfarm [...]

US stocks staged a minor rebound on Tuesday after Monday's dramatic decline. Gains were a fraction of Monday's drop, with the Dow clawing back just 300 points of its more-than-1,000-point [...]

The July jobs report triggered the Sahm rule, but its creator said the US isn't in a recession. However, she is worried about unemployment and high interest rates. Economists like [...]

Fed policy outlook: the flight to safety trades that knocked Treasury yields sharply lower also boosted Fed funds futures. The market priced in a -50 bp rate cut last Friday [...]

Gold prices experienced on Friday a sharp decline, influenced by a combination of profit-taking and speculation around a potential second term for former U.S. President Donald Trump. The strengthening of [...]

The US economy may have entered a recession as the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July. The recent rise in unemployment triggered the Sahm Rule, a recession indicator. Investors [...]

Sen. Elizabeth Warren has been a vocal critic of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's interest-rate hikes. Friday's weak jobs report suggests the Fed may have kept interest rates high for too [...]

Treasury Market Summary: Treasury yields and Wall Street plunged after weaker than expected data on ISM manufacturing and jobless claims. The markets read the reports as more evidence of a [...]

Market Update: Treasury yields are lower, erasing overnight losses after a bullish set of numbers on jobless claims and productivity. The data are further underpinning market expectations for a September [...]

U.S. initial jobless claims bounced 14k to 249k in the week ended July 27 after falling -10k to 235k previously. Today's level is the highest since August. The 4-week moving [...]

The S&P 500 Index (https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/$SPX/overview) (https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/overview) Thursday closed down -1.37%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index (https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/$DOWI/overview) (https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/DIA/overview) closed down -1.21% and the Nasdaq 100 Index (https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/$IUXX/overview) (https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/QQQ/overview) closed down -2.44%. [...]

Treasury Market Summary: the markets rallied after the day's mix of data supported the soft-landing narrative. But trading was choppy in the immediate aftermath of the mix in the headlines [...]

Byline: David Winzelberg The Long Island unemployment rate ticked upward last month as compared with the same time last year. The not-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for Long Island in Junewas 3.3 [...]

Attention turns to jobless claims and Q2 GDP Thursday ahead of the PCE numbers on Friday for more clues on the FOMC's policy path. There was a lot of talk [...]

(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0a3e43f1-f0d3-40dd-a920-5820afa6a055_843x563.jpeg) Kamala Harris speaks at the SEIU / CAP Action Fund’s 2019 National Forum on Wages and Working People in Las Vegas. Photo: (https://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/46823600565) Gage Skidmore, Creative Commons (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/) License [...]