1. Exploring implicit relationships between pavement surface friction and vehicle crash severity using interpretable extreme gradient boosting method
- Author
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Zhao, Guangyuan, Jiang, Yi, Li, Shuo, and Tighe, Susan
- Subjects
Pavements -- Mechanical properties ,Traffic safety -- Environmental aspects ,Traffic accidents -- Environmental aspects ,Friction -- Environmental aspects ,Algorithms -- Usage ,Algorithm ,Engineering and manufacturing industries - Abstract
Pavement friction has been identified as crucial in traffic safety. Since the Highway Safety Manual prediction algorithm is often based on crash frequency, the crash severity distribution might be assumed unchanged before and after the countermeasure. However, pavement surface treatments can improve the friction to different levels, by which crash severity outcomes may vary greatly. To explore the implicit effects of pavement friction on vehicle crash severity, this paper first validates the extreme gradient boosting model performance and then the Shapley additive explanations interaction values are employed to interpret individual features and the nonlinear interactions among predictors. Under various scenarios, the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) output probability is utilized to convert into dynamic crash severity distributions. Results also indicate that friction becomes more significant when the friction number is less than 38, and immediate corrective actions are needed when the friction number is below 20. Key words: pavement friction, crash severity, highway safety, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). Le frottement des chaussees a ete juge crucial pour la securite routiere. Etant donne que l'algorithme de prediction du Manuel de Securite routiere est souvent fonde sur la frequence des collisions, la distribution de la gravite des collisions peut etre consideree comme inchangee avant et apres la contre-mesure. Par contre, les traitements de surface de chaussee peuvent ameliorer le frottement a differents niveaux, par lesquels les resultats de gravite des collisions peuvent varier considerablement. Explorer les effets implicites du frottement de la chaussee sur la gravite des collisions, cet article valide d'abord les performances du modele d'amplification de gradient extreme (<< XGBoost >>), puis les valeurs d'interaction des explications additives de Shapley (SHAP) sont utilisees pour interpreter les caracteristiques individuelles et les interactions non lineaires entre les predicteurs. Dans divers scenarios, la probabilite de sortie XGBoost est utilisee pour convertir en distributions dynamiques de gravite des collisions. Les resultats indiquent egalement que le frottement devient plus important lorsque le numero de frottement est inferieur a 38 et que des mesures correctives immediates sont necessaires lorsque le numero de frottement est inferieur a 20. Mots-cles : frottement des chaussees, gravite des collisions, securite routiere, amplification de gradient extreme (<< XGBoost >>), explications additives de Shapley (<< SHAP >>)., Introduction Pavement friction plays an important role in highway safety. Poor pavement friction tends to increase the possibility of vehicle skidding or hydroplaning, leading to increased safe stop distance and [...]
- Published
- 2022
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