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Byline: Paul Kirshen (1), Kelly Knee (2), Matthias Ruth (3) Abstract: Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change will increase storm surge height along the 825 km long coastline of Metro Boston, USA. Land at risk consists of urban waterfront with piers and armoring, residential areas with and without seawalls and revetments, and undeveloped land with either rock coasts or gently sloping beachfront and low-lying coastal marshes. Risk-based analysis shows that the cumulative 100 year economic impacts on developed areas from increased storm surge flooding depend heavily upon the adaptation response, location, and estimated sea level rise. Generally it is found that it is advantageous to use expensive structural protection in areas that are highly developed and less structural approaches such as floodproofing and limiting or removing development in less developed or environmentally sensitive areas. Author Affiliation: (1) Tufts Water: Systems, Science, and Society (WSSS) Graduate Education Program and Research Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering (CEE) Department, Tufts University, Medford, MA, 02155, USA (2) Applied Science Associates, 70 Dean Knauss Road, Narragansett, RI, 02882, USA (3) Center for Integrative Environmental Research, Engineering and Public Policy, University of Maryland, 2202 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD, 20742, USA Article History: Registration Date: 24/01/2008 Received Date: 15/01/2004 Accepted Date: 23/01/2008 Online Date: 14/03/2008

Byline: Paul Kirshen (1), Matthias Ruth (2), William Anderson (3) Abstract: An analysis of the interdependencies of the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies upon infrastructure systems in the Metro Boston urban area in the northeastern USA found that taking anticipatory actions well before 2050 results in less total adaptation and impact costs to the region than taking no actions. Because of the interrelations among infrastructure systems, it is critical to take account of the impacts that adaptation actions have on each other and other systems. For the most part these cross-system effects are complementary in nature. But there are important exceptions, so an integrated approach to adaptation policy formulation is needed. Furthermore, adaptation efforts must be designed so as not to confound mitigation efforts. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Anderson Hall, Tufts University, Medford, MA, 02155, USA (2) School of Public Policy and Center for Integrative Environmental Research, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USA (3) Department of Geography and Center for Transportation Studies, Boston University, Boston, MA, 02215, USA Article History: Registration Date: 16/03/2007 Received Date: 06/10/2005 Accepted Date: 30/11/2006 Online Date: 14/04/2007

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.012 Byline: Matthias Ruth (a), Clark Bernier (b), Alan Meier (c), John 'Skip' Laitner (d) Keywords: Energy Efficiency; Efficiency gap; Simulation game; Energy policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Consumer choice; Household appliances; Experimental economics; Technology policy Abstract: Computer models are widely used to analyze decisions about energy efficiency improvements in the residential and commercial sectors. Few models exist that can actually be run interactively by decision makers to play out alternative future scenarios. None are available that interactively capture the dynamics, subtleties and complexities of interdependent decisions by utilities, households and firms in an ever-changing technological and economic environment. This paper presents the features and experiences of PowerPlay, a computer-facilitated game which fills that gap and does more: it is a game to be played by at least a dozen player groups who interact with each other, make deals (or break them), plan for the future and revise decisions. The computer model functions like a game board to trace actions and offer choices. The observed behaviors can be analyzed to advance understanding of investment strategies and consumer choices; to generate experimentally-based data on energy efficiency changes; and to provide the basis for analyses that can substantiate or complement historical, time-series driven specifications of energy models. Author Affiliation: (a) Center for Integrative Environmental Research, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA (b) Environmental Policy Program, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA (c) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA (d) American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Washington, D.C., 20036, USA Article History: Received 19 September 2005; Revised 24 April 2006; Accepted 1 May 2006

The effects of volatile climatic conditions on energy domestic and commercial energy consumption levels in a region are analyzed by focusing on state of Maryland.

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may altar energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluated the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.

A series of scenarios illustrating the supply structure evolution of the competing fuels, natural gas and fuel oil, as well as the relationship between fuel prices and substitution is presented. The study investigates, how investment responses will shape the Mexican energy sector in the future.

The United States' iron and steel industries have 2 main sectors: firms producing outputs from fossil fuels and virgin materials, and; electric arc furnaces using electricity and scrap. The paper examines the sectors' carbon emissions profiles, energy usage, and carbon costs and compares this to various climate and technology policies.

The effects of fishing and implications of the design of marine protected areas have been modeled with attention to juvenile fish responses to variations in seafloor habitat. The model was applied to a theoretical patch of hard-bottom substratum and to a case study based on seafloor distributions at Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (Gulf of Maine, Northwest Atlantic). Shape of response surfaces patterns that show relationships between juvenile cod (Gadus marhua) survivorship and density as well as movement rate were similar no matter what the functional response type. It was seen that juvenile cod movement rates and post-settlement density were critical for predicting effects of marine protected-area size on survivorship. Habitat change caused by fishing was seen to have significant negative effects on juvenile cod surviving. It showed use of marine protected areas can be ameliorating.

Economic activities utilize materials and energy from the environment for production, consumption and the discharge of waste. The role of change in technology in an economic system considered part of the ecosystem is explored by using a physical model of production. It quantifies the thermodynamic irreversibility of the production process and of the economic system. Markets determine technological innovation. Governments need not intervene in R&D. Government regulations also provide for public policies for energy and material conserving technological change.

Byline: Matthias Ruth This paper is based on the premise that without integration of knowledge across disciplines, without integration of research with education, and without dialogue between science and stakeholders, opportunities to bound the complexity of environmental processes will be missed. Without adequate integration, solutions to environmental challenges will be partial at best, and new problems and unintended impacts will likely arise that prevent natural resource, economic and social systems from flourishing. On that premise, the paper explores what specifically needs to be integrated, and why, how that integration may occur, and what emotive, social and institutional conditions need to be achieved that may foster integration.

An approach to improve the understanding of the dynamics of large industrial systems is presented. Engineering and economic analysis with detailed representation of an industry's capital stock structure are fused in this approach.

A new study investigates the effect of climate change policies on the US pulp and paper industry's carbon emissions and energy consumption.