Monni, S., Peltoniemi, M., Palosuo, T., Lehtonen, A., Makipaa, R., and Savolainen, I.
Byline: S. Monni (1), M. Peltoniemi (2), T. Palosuo (3), A. Lehtonen (2), R. Makipaa (2), I. Savolainen (1) Abstract: Uncertainty analysis facilitates identification of the most important categories affecting greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory uncertainty and helps in prioritisation of the efforts needed for development of the inventory. This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of GHG emissions of all Kyoto sectors and gases for Finland consolidated with estimates of emissions/removals from LULUCF categories. In Finland, net GHG emissions in 2003 were around 69 Tg (+-15 Tg) CO.sub.2 equivalents. The uncertainties in forest carbon sink estimates in 2003 were larger than in most other emission categories, but of the same order of magnitude as in carbon stock change estimates in other land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) categories, and in [N.sub.2]O emissions from agricultural soils. Uncertainties in sink estimates of 1990 were lower, due to better availability of data. Results of this study indicate that inclusion of the forest carbon sink to GHG inventories reported to the UNFCCC increases uncertainties in net emissions notably. However, the decrease in precision is accompanied by an increase in the accuracy of the overall net GHG emissions due to improved completeness of the inventory. The results of this study can be utilised when planning future GHG mitigation protocols and emission trading schemes and when analysing environmental benefits of climate conventions. Author Affiliation: (1) VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O.Box 1000, FI-02044, VTT, Finland (2) Finnish Forest Research Institute (Metla), Helsinki, Finland (3) European Forest Institute (EFI), Joensuu, Finland Article History: Registration Date: 22/05/2006 Received Date: 23/11/2004 Accepted Date: 09/05/2006 Online Date: 13/02/2007