1. Biases in the estimation of size-dependent mortality models: advantages of a semiparametric approach
- Author
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Vieilledent, Ghislain, Courbaud, Benoit, Kunstler, Georges, Dhote, Jean-Francois, and Clark, James S.
- Subjects
Mortality -- Models -- Canada ,Trees -- Statistics ,Plant populations -- Statistics ,Earth sciences ,Statistics ,Models - Abstract
Mortality rate is thought to show a U-shape relationship to tree size. This shape could result from a decrease of competition-related mortality as diameter increases, followed by an increase of senescence and disturbance-related mortality for large trees. Modeling mortality rate as a function of diameter is nevertheless difficult, first because this relationship is strongly nonlinear, and second because data can be unbalanced, with few observations for large trees. Parametric functions, which are inflexible and sensitive to the distribution of observations, tend to introduce biases in mortality rate estimates. In this study we use mortality data for Abies alba Mill. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. to demonstrate that mortality rate estimates for extreme diameters were biased when using classical parametric functions. We then propose a semiparametric approach allowing a more flexible relationship between mortality and diameter. We show that the relatively shadetolerant A. alba has a lower annual mortality rate (2.75%) than P. abies (3.78%) for small trees (DBH La relation entre taux de mortalite et taille des arbres presente une forme en U. Cette forme serait associee a une diminution de la mortalite due a la competition pour les faibles diametres, suivie d'une augmentation de la mortalite due a la senescence et aux perturbations. La modelisation du taux de mortalite en fonction du diametre est difficile, car la relation est fortement non-lineaire et car les donnees sont desequilibrees, avec peu d'observations pour les gros arbres. Les fonctions parametriques habituellement utilisees sont peu flexibles et sensibles a la repartition des donnees. Nous avons etudie la mortalite d'Abies alba Mill. et de Picea abies (L.) Karst. pour demontrer que l'estimation du taux de mortalite pour des diametres extremes etait biaisee lorsque fon utilisait des fonctions parametriques. Nous proposons une approche semi-parametrique plus flexible pour representer la relation entre mortalite et diametre. Nous montrons qu'A. alba, (espece la plus tolerante a (ombre, a un taux de mortalite annuel plus faible (2,75 %) que P. abies (3,78 %) pour de faibles DBH ( [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction Understanding how mortality risk is influenced by tree size is frustrated by the fact that tree death is rarely observed, especially for large trees. The relationship between size and [...]
- Published
- 2009