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This occasional paper is the ninth in a series on the National Quality Framework (NQF). The Education and Care Services National Law and National Regulations govern the minimum standards and requirements that all providers of NQF regulated services must meet, including health and safety requirements. Quality Area 2 of the National Quality Standard (NQS) upholds children's right to be protected and kept safe. The approved provider, nominated supervisors, coordinators and educators have responsibility for supporting the health, safety and wellbeing of all children. In exercising their responsibilities, they must take reasonable care to protect children from foreseeable risk of harm, injury and infection. This paper uses data from the National Quality Agenda Information Technology System (NQA ITS) to provide analysis of trends in serious incidents resulting in injury, trauma or illness in Australian children's education and care services between 1 April 2020 and 31 March 2022.

We study whether autonomous schools, which are publicly funded but can operate more independently than government-run schools, affect student achievement and school segregation across 15 countries over 16 years. Our triple-differences regressions exploit between-grade variation in the share of students attending autonomous schools within a given country and year. While autonomous schools do not affect overall achievement, effects are positive for high-socioeconomic status students and negative for immigrants. Impacts on segregation mirror these findings, with evidence of increased segregation by socioeconomic and immigrant status. Rather than creating "a rising tide that lifts all boats," autonomous schools increase inequality

Skilling Australia's current and future workforce is the theme for the 32nd National Vocational Education and Training (VET) Research Conference 'No Frills.' In keeping with the conference's theme, this discussion paper explores the resilience of the Australian VET sector and how it can continue to foster adaptability in the face of ongoing change.

This paper provides new evidence on educational inequality and reviews the literature on the causes and consequences of unequal education. We document large achievement gaps between children from different socio-economic backgrounds, show how patterns of educational inequality vary across countries, time, and generations, and establish a link between educational inequality and social mobility. We interpret this evidence from the perspective of economic models of skill acquisition and investment in human capital. The models account for different channels underlying unequal education and highlight how endogenous responses in parents' and children's educational investments generate a close link between economic inequality and educational inequality. Given concerns over the extended school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic, we also summarize early evidence on the impact of the pandemic on children's education and on possible long-run repercussions for educational inequality.

'Transforming the future' can have different connotations in different contexts, but here the author focuses on the way in which the vocational education and training (VET) sector is adapting, anticipating and activating change in response to future skill demands. This discussion paper explores how the sector assists learners to skill, upskill and reskill, which in turn actively contributes to the Australian economy. Without a doubt, the past few years have been both difficult and unpredictable for many, with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and other natural disasters such as bushfires and floods. This paper therefore also considers how the VET system has been able to adapt to these unforeseen events and what can be learnt from these responses and adapted for the future.

This discussion paper has been produced by Australian Children's Education and Care Quality Authority (ACECQA), on behalf of all state and territory governments and the Australian Government, to inform the "2020 Review of the Disability Standards for Education 2005." This paper asks providers of early childhood education and care (ECEC) and school age education and care services across Australia about their awareness and understanding of their obligation sunder the "Disability Discrimination Act 1992" (DDA). This includes questions of access and participation by children with disability to education and care. ACECQA's paper complements the broader discussion paper by the Australian Government about ECEC and the Disability Standards for Education 2005, and is provided in two parts: (1) part 1 is for all ECEC and school age education and care providers; and (2) part 2 asks questions that specifically target National Quality Framework (NQF) approved ECEC and school age education and care providers. [For the broader paper, "Final Report of the 2020 Review of the Disability Standards for Education 2005," see ED617747.]

The National Quality Framework (NQF) was established in 2012 to create a more efficient and cohesive approach to regulating early childhood education and care, and outside school hours care in Australia. The NQF provides a shared vision for governments and the children's education and care sector, and an agreed tool for measuring and monitoring service quality. It sets standards for safety and quality so that all children who attend services regulated under the NQF are supported to have the best start in life. This occasional paper discusses how and why the NQF came about, what has changed in the last 10 years, and future directions.

This paper summarises the exploratory quantitative analysis undertaken to investigate how vocational education and training (VET) students cluster and segment in the Australian VET market. This analysis is outlined in three sections. The first section focuses on 'clustering' as a technique for grouping data and the three clustering algorithms used. These are then discussed in more detail to provide some insights into how they operate. Their specific data requirements, along with their strengths and weaknesses, are also considered. In next section the outputs of the clustering approaches are considered. The resultant clusters are examined to better understand them, and meaningfully label and group them into segments. The final section returns to the raw data. This step was necessary to further explore (in this case, only some of) the identified market segments. Three key market segments are explored: students in targeted English programs; students in social inclusion programs; and migrant students.

Principals (policy makers) have debated the progress in U.S. student performance for a half century or more. Informing these conversations, survey agents have administered seven million psychometrically linked tests in math and reading in 160 waves to national probability samples of selected cohorts born between 1954 and 2007. This study is the first to assess consistency of results by agency. We find results vary by agent, but consistent with Flynn effects, gains are larger in math than reading, except for the most recent period. Non-whites progress at a faster pace. Socio-economically disadvantaged white, black, and Hispanic students make greater progress when tested in elementary school, but that advantage attenuates and reverses itself as students age. We discuss potential moderators.

This paper is the first publication from a project focused on the quality of teaching, learning and assessment practices in the vocational education and training (VET) sector in Australia -- what we understand these to be and how they might be measured. Based on a review of the literature, this paper explores current definitions of quality in VET, the factors that impact on the quality of delivery and the various measures used to make judgements about it.

The past informs the future. It achieves this in two ways: first, by providing the context in which decisions are made, and, second, by delivering the various experiences that enable discovery of what does and does not work. As the Australian vocational education and training (VET) system has evolved, the institutional structures and frameworks that are now in place may determine the direction of its next turn, while the willingness to learn from past experiences will dictate whether it will turn at all. 'The past informing the future' is the theme for the 2021 'No Frills' Conference -- a conference to be held online, because if anything has been learned from 2020, it is that the freedom to travel is no longer guaranteed. This 'No Frills' discussion paper reflects on some key developments in VET's past and how they have shaped the sector's approach to enduring issues such as VET's purpose, national harmonisation, and quality.

As part of its regulatory roles, the Australian Government Tertiary Education Quality and Standards Agency (TEQSA) is required to assess evidence of 'scholarship' that is put forward by providers, whether evidence of scholarship by individuals, such as teaching staff within the provider, or for the provider as a whole. TEQSA is seeking to review whether its current approach to assessing claims of scholarship and scholarly activity (as described in the Guidance Note on Scholarship) is adequate, or if the approach needs to be reconceptualised. The purpose of this discussion paper is to set out, for consideration by the sector and other stakeholders, draft principles that are proposed to guide providers in making claims related to scholarship, and to inform TEQSA's assessments of such claims. TEQSA's Guidance Note describes 'scholarship' as 'activities concerned with gaining new or improved understanding, appreciation and insights into a field of knowledge, and engaging with and keeping up to date with advances in the field.' This includes advances in ways of teaching and learning in the field and advances in professional practice, as well as advances in disciplinary knowledge through original research.' This discussion paper proposes a set of principles that would guide providers when offering evidence of their capacity to meet the requirements of the Higher Education Standards (HES) Framework in relation to scholarship. [For "Guidance Note: Scholarship. Version 2.5," see ED610488.]

This paper studies the impact of compulsory schooling on violent behaviour and victimization in school using individual-level administrative data matching education and criminal records from Queensland (Australia). Exploiting a legislative increase in the minimum dropout age in 2006, this study defines a series of regression-discontinuity specifications to show that compulsory schooling reduces crime but increases violent behaviour in school. While police records show that property and drugs offences decrease, education records indicate that violence and victimization in school increase. Thus, prior studies that fail to consider in-school behaviour may over-estimate the short-run crime-reducing impact of compulsory education.

This occasional paper is the seventh in a series on the National Quality Framework (NQF). It explores the quality of children's education and care services based on the socio-economic status of the area in which they are situated. The Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage (IRSAD) is used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) to classify services by the level of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage of their local area. This paper uses SEIFA as a proxy measure to identify services that are more or less likely to educate and care for children from disadvantaged backgrounds. This paper begins by highlighting contemporary research about the association between socio-economic status and developmental outcomes, and the impact of high quality education and care on children from more disadvantaged backgrounds. It then outlines the quality and availability of education and care in low socio-economic status areas, analysing service quality ratings and reassessment results. The paper also examines differences across service and provider management types, and remoteness classifications. The detailed analysis suggests that there are differences in the overall quality ratings of education and care services located in high and low socio-economic status areas. Services in relatively disadvantaged areas are slightly more likely to be rated Working Towards NQS and notably less likely to be rated Exceeding NQS than those in relatively advantaged areas.

"Workforce-Ready: Challenges and Opportunities for VET" is the theme for the 29th National Vocational Education and Training Research Conference 'No Frills' from July 7-10, 2020. The phrase 'workforce-ready' might bring several different scenarios to mind. It may conjure an image of graduates making their first foray into the world of work. Or perhaps it evokes a sense of preparing for future jobs, the details of which are not yet clear. It might also elicit thoughts of people needing to upskill, perhaps to re-enter the labour market after an absence, or in response to some change in their organisation or with their job. It could also mean something as simple as getting the necessary accreditation to work in a particular industry. The vocational education and training (VET) system plays a large role in meeting all these needs. A large focus for the VET sector is on providing individuals with the skills they need to get a job or change jobs. This function of the VET sector is clearly reflected in the National Student Outcomes Survey, which shows that two commonly reported reasons why graduates undertook their training was to get a job (30.7% in 2019), or to try for a different career (11%; NCVER 2019a). This role is particularly pertinent in the current environment of substantial job losses due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Treasury expects the unemployment rate to rise to 10% in the June quarter, up from 5.1% (Frydenberg 2020). Young people are likely to be particularly affected, being overrepresented in the jobs hardest hit by the pandemic, for example, hospitality, retail, the arts, and sports and recreation. Many will explore training as a pathway to re-enter the labour market. This No Frills discussion paper considers the balance between ensuring that people have the skills they need to work now and equipping them with the knowledge and/or skills that will enable them to adapt to the changes they will inevitably see in their working lives.

This occasional paper is the sixth in a series on the National Quality Framework (NQF). It examines trends in quality improvement from the perspective of services rated Working Towards National Quality Standard (NQS) under the 2012 NQS. In this paper, a service is considered to have improved its quality at reassessment where it: (1) receives a higher overall quality rating; (2) receives a higher rating in a quality area; and (3) meets a higher number of elements of quality. Qualitative analysis suggests primary drivers of quality improvement include the recruitment and retention of highly trained educators that have a good understanding of the NQF, delivering education and care under the direction of high quality service leadership. Case studies describing quality improvement practices that were evident during reassessment have been included in this paper. These case studies are intended to aid and support the process of continuous quality improvement and the ongoing development of quality improvement plans (QIPs).

This paper studies the contribution of parental influence in accounting for cross-country gaps in human capital achievements. We argue that the cross-country variation in unobserved parental characteristics is at least as important as the one in commonly used observable proxies of parental socio-economic background. We infer this through an indirect empirical approach, based on the comparison of the school performance of second-generation immigrants. We document that, within the same host country or even the same school, students whose parents come from high-scoring countries in the PISA test do better than their peers with similar socioeconomic backgrounds. Differential selection into emigration does not explain this finding. The result is larger when parents have little education and have recently emigrated, suggesting the importance of country-specific cultural traits that parents progressively lose as they integrate in the new host country, rather than of an intergenerational transmission of education quality. Unobserved parental characteristics account for about 15% of the cross-country variance in test scores, roughly doubling the overall contribution of parental influence.

"The student journey: skilling for life" is the theme for the 28th National Vocational Education and Training Research Conference 'No Frills'. In this discussion paper, we look at how vocational education and training (VET) supports lifelong learners. We explore VET's role in assisting lifelong learning and seek to understand how VET will need to transform in the future to enable it to confront the challenges of an increasingly complex and changing world. We also profile the various lifelong learner types.

Prior research shows reduced criminality to be a beneficial consequence of education policies that raise the school leaving age. This paper studies how crime reductions occurred in a sequence of state-level dropout age reforms enacted between 1980 and 2010 in the United States. These reforms changed the shape of crime-age profiles, reflecting both a temporary incapacitation effect and a more sustained, longer run crime reducing effect. In contrast to the previous research looking at earlier US education reforms, crime reduction does not arise solely as a result of education improvements, and so the observed longer run effect is interpreted as dynamic incapacitation. Additional evidence based on longitudinal data combined with an education reform from a different setting in Australia corroborates the finding of dynamic incapacitation underpinning education policy-induced crime reduction.

This discussion paper explores the possibilities and risks that data linkage presents for the vocational education and training (VET) sector. Along with a broad overview of the nature of data linkage, it highlights possible applications for data linkage in the VET sector and examines the key challenges associated with its use. A number of case studies are reviewed to illustrate the advantages data linkage can offer, as well as the challenges that may arise. In order to better understand the options for data linkage from an education and employment perspective, a 'map' of relevant Australian datasets is presented, along with a list of data sources that may be of use to VET research. As well as selected Australian datasets, the paper reviews some international datasets of potential interest for VET research in Australia. Using the insights gained from past data-linkage projects and taking into account the privacy and ethics concerns, the paper presents a set of six principles for data linkage. These principles provide researchers with basic steps for guidance when embarking upon a data-linkage project. Finally, future directions for data linkage in VET research are explored.

ACECQA [Australian Children's Education and Care Quality Authority] has published its fifth occasional paper analysing Quality Area 7 -- Leadership and service management. This completes the suite of occasional papers that cover the four quality areas of the National Quality Standard that are comparatively challenging. Quality Area 7 recognises the importance of effective leadership and internal administrative systems in guiding and supporting educators, coordinators and staff members to deliver quality education and care programs. The paper highlights contemporary research and theory related to leadership and service management, describes the operational requirements of the National Law and National Regulations, and examines the distribution of quality ratings for Quality Area 7. It provides case studies of the Quality Area 7 elements, along with examples of evidence collected by authorised officers when assessing the elements. Future directions and the implications of the data and literature for service leadership and management are also examined. The paper will be of interest to people who deliver education and care services, people who provide training and professional development services to the sector, peak organisations, and officers in the state and territory regulatory authorities that regulate education and care services.

The National Student Outcomes Survey (SOS) collects information about students who completed their vocational education and training (VET) in the previous calendar year. The gathered information on the surveyed VET students includes their reasons for training, employment outcomes, satisfaction with training, and further study outcomes. The survey covers students who have completed a qualification (graduates) and those who have completed only part of a course and then left the VET system (subject completers). The National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) has conducted the survey with government-funded VET students annually since 1999. In 2016, the scope of the survey was expanded to report on the outcomes of graduates whose training was Commonwealth--or state-funded as well as fee-for-service graduates. These graduates were referred to as total VET graduates. An explanation of the difference between total VET and government-funded student outcomes can be found in appendix A. The expanded scope was applied to the 2017 survey for graduates (following a successful trial in 2016) and for the first time for subject completers and the series renamed VET student outcomes. At the time of sample selection, insufficient information is available from the National VET Provider Collection to identify 'actual' subject completers. Instead, a sample of potential subject completers is chosen, which includes students who are continuing in the VET system. The status of respondents is determined through the survey responses. As such, respondents to the SOS include a number of students who were sampled as subject completers based on administrative data reported to the National VET Provider Collection, but self-identify in the questionnaire as graduates. For many years these 'self-reported graduates' (SRGs) were categorised as graduates in survey outputs, because the self-report was deemed to be more reliable than the collection data. However, it became apparent that many SRGs were not, in fact, graduates. In response to this issue, in 2012, NCVER created a logistic model that predicted the eligibility of a SRG being an 'actual' graduate based on their personal and training characteristics (Braysher 2012). This model has since been run annually for each SOS to assign group membership to SRGs. Those SRGs that were not predicted by the model to be a graduate were re-assigned to their original subject completer status. One of the conditions of the initial analysis was that the model should be reviewed at least every four years to assess its ongoing validity and to make possible modifications should demographics and administrative data change and alter the predictive power of the model. The model was reviewed by NCVER in 2015 (unpublished). The review found some changes in data quality, but found no evidence that these changes were affecting the estimates. At the time no changes were recommended to the logistic model or graduate reclassification procedure, but it was recommended that the model be reviewed again at a later stage. In relation to data quality, the proportion of subject completers claiming to be self-reported graduates has declined significantly since 2007, particularly from 2015 to 2017, highlighting the improvement in the quality of the National VET Provider Collection data since the need to run the model arose (appendix B). Hence, it was appropriate to review the model again. This report presents the findings of an additional comprehensive review of the model and methodology.

This occasional paper is the fourth in a series on the National Quality Framework (NQF). This paper offers detailed insights into education and care service quality ratings for Quality Area 3 (physical environment) of the National Quality Standard (NQS). The focus is on ensuring the physical environment of a service is safe, suitable and provides a rich and diverse range of experiences that promote children's learning and development. This paper begins with an overview of the physical environment standards and what these aim to achieve, highlighting contemporary research and theory behind sustainable environments promoting children's learning. It then outlines the operational requirements of the National Law and National Regulations for the physical environment, with a particular focus on the requirements specific to different service types. The paper also describes how service approval requirements in the National Law apply to the physical environment, and how providers may seek waivers for certain legislated requirements. The paper is intended to be of interest to people who deliver education and care services, families, people who provide training and professional development services to the sector, and to officers in the state and territory regulatory authorities that regulate education and care services.

Internationally, Australia's tertiary education system, comprising the higher education and vocational education and training (VET) sectors, is highly regarded, with both sectors subject to ongoing national review and reforms. This paper explores in detail the multiple issues that lie at what might be termed the "boundaries and connections" between these sectors. The purpose of this occasional paper is twofold, the first being to provide a brief illustration and commentary on the relative trend change and potential trajectories of Australia's vocational education and training (VET) sector by comparison with the higher education sector. This provides the necessary context for the second objective, which is to explore in detail the multiple issues that lie at what might be described as the "boundaries and connections" between these two components of the tertiary education sector.

This occasional paper provides a stocktake of recent developments in continuing professional development for VET practitioners. It explores issues such as industry currency, the debate around a professional association for VET and the Certificate IV in Training and Assessment as the minimum qualification for VET practitioners. Through synthesising the literature, the paper highlights enduring issues for continuing professional development in VET, such as the need to address both pedagogical knowledge and industry skills, and the necessity for individuals to actively engage and willingly participate in professional development in order for changes in practice to occur.

Quality in vocational education and training (VET) is a perennial topic of interest, attracting much attention from participants, providers, funders, regulators and public commentators. Quality is as much subjectively in the "eye of the beholder" as it is objectively assessed through hard data, measures and surveys. This paper summarises the quality of the VET system in Australia from the lens point of the eye of the beholder. It considers the perspectives of five key stakeholder groups: learners, employers/industry, providers, government and regulators. The paper explores, from the perspective of each of these groups, what is important in regards to the VET system, what constitutes and promotes a good-quality VET system, and what are the enablers and barriers to having a system that meets their expectations. The paper then examines the usefulness of the measures of quality currently available, as well as approaches that might be more effective. Key messages include: (1) Quality is context- and purpose-specific and means different things to the five stakeholder groups; (2) These multiple perspectives on quality operate at differing levels -- at the training program, at employment outcomes and at higher systemic levels; (3) Effective, fair and prompt regulation is foundational and essential in removing poor quality training from the system; and (4) A number of enabling factors have the potential to either support or detract from VET quality. These factors may impact both objective measures and subjective views of quality.

The third ACECQA Occasional Paper examines activities to promote consistency and efficiency in the implementation and administration of the National Quality Framework (NQF). Striving for consistency and efficiency is a collaborative effort between the eight state and territory regulatory authorities, the Australian Government and ACECQA. This paper highlights the breadth and depth of collaboration to identify, implement and review approaches to promote consistency and efficiency under the NQF. It also includes case studies to illustrate in more detail how certain activities contribute to consistency and efficiency.

ACECQA has published the second in its series of occasional papers, analysing one of the most challenging quality areas -- Children's Health and Safety. Quality Area 2 addresses one of the primary objectives of the National Quality Framework -- to ensure the health, safety and wellbeing of children attending education and care services. The paper examines performance across service types, socio economic and remoteness classifications, jurisdictions and management types. It also breaks down Quality Area 2 and highlights that standard 2.3 (each child is protected) and element 2.3.3 (incident and emergency planning) are the most challenging aspects of the Quality Area. One of the findings from the analysis is that services in remote and very remote areas may benefit from more support to understand and comply with the requirements of Quality Area 2. The paper also summarises recent state, territory and Commonwealth initiatives around child safe organisations, as well as some examples of the types of compliance and enforcement action that state and territory regulatory authorities have taken relating to children's health and safety.

This working paper is the first publication coming out of a project investigating the role of vocational education and training (VET) in developing digital skills in the Australian workforce, using two sectors as case studies--Transport and Logistics, and Public Safety and Correctional Services. The study employs a mixed method approach, combining both qualitative and quantitative analyses. It involves industry training package content analysis, content extraction and analysis from online job vacancy advertisements, and key industry interviews, as well as a quantitative employer survey. In the online job vacancy analysis, a total of 1,708 job advertisements covering 74 occupations/job titles were analysed to explore digital skills requirements. In addition, a detailed content analysis was conducted of 11 training packages, with a specific focus on the qualifications for these occupations. In this analysis, 758 units of competency were analysed to examine how and the extent to which digital skills provision is embedded into qualifications. Findings showed that only a small number mentioned digital skills as a requirement. The training packages for these industries contained significant digital training content but with the majority of these units of competency occurring as electives. These findings raise questions about whether employers are making assumptions about the digital skills of potential employees.

The digital revolution and automation are accelerating changes in the labour market and in workplace skills, changes that are further affected by fluctuations in international and regional economic cycles and employment opportunity. These factors pose a universal policy challenge for all advanced economies and governments. In the workplace, people seek to acquire contemporary and relevant skills to gain employment and retain transferable skills to maintain employment. The central purpose of this paper is to investigate how other nations or regions are dealing with these issues. What approaches are they taking to understanding the mix and dynamics of the skills attained by individuals and, more broadly, the totality of skills that in aggregate constitute a highly capable and adaptable labour force, one that supports firm viability and greater national productivity. This research has examined a range of initiatives and approaches being developed or in use in selected countries, including the United States, Singapore and New Zealand, and agencies/organisations; for example, the European Commission and the Skills for the Information Age Foundation. In doing so, it showcases the good practices used to ensure that occupational-level skills information remains current and widely accessible. [For "Identifying Work Skills: International Case Summaries. Support Document," see ED579875.]

While more women than ever now participate in the paid workforce, it still can be hard to find women in top leadership positions. To understand why so few women are in top leadership positions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, the Center for Creative Leadership (CCL) set out to understand what factors help women achieve leadership positions, what factors prevent it, and how organizations could add more women to their leadership ranks. In this paper, the authors raise five key questions that women should reflect on as they consider their ambitions. They summarize five key lessons that came up repeatedly in conversations with women leaders who had worked their way into leadership positions. The authors also discuss some of the changes organizations can make to increase the number of women leaders. These include policies and changes in organizational culture. Research was conducted two phases. First, the authors surveyed 204 women leaders from Singapore, Australia, India, and Korea. The authors gave them a list of reasons that might contribute to the lack of women in leadership positions and asked them to select up to five items they most agreed with and five they most disagreed with. In phase two, the authors conducted 27 face-to-face interviews with women leaders working in Singapore. Women told their personal leadership stories, shared their perspective on women leaders' career enablers and blockers, and also completed the phase 1 survey. The authors learned that there is no single reason or simple solution. Increasing the number of women in leadership positions will require aspiring women leaders to develop themselves professionally and, in some cases, adopt new behaviors. But the organizational context that women work within is also important.

This occasional paper provides the views of 17 "thought leaders" in the Australian vocational education and training (VET) sector. Their insight and opinions were sought to inform a larger research project focused on the student entitlement reforms that were introduced into the national VET system from 2012. These individuals offered a variety of senior-level vantage points on the topics of: (1) Australia's national training system: why it has been developed, what its key elements are, and the aspects where consistency has been sought and the aspects where flexibility has been sought; (2) VET student training entitlements: why this initiative has been introduced and the implications of the agreed flexibility in approach to its implementation by jurisdictions, in terms of maintaining a functional national training system; and (3) the implications of the VET student entitlement initiative for future national VET reform. A particular emphasis has been on the implications of the reforms and the challenges faced in its implementation in the context of achieving a balance between national consistency and jurisdictional flexibility. The interviewees considered key elements of the national training system, namely: standards for VET products (training packages and materials); standards for VET providers; and a flexible training market. The interviewees commented on the consistency and flexibility sought in each of these key elements, highlighting where tensions exist, particularly in student training entitlements. The following are appended: (1) Project statement provided to interviewees about the project and Project protocols; and (2) Interview guide questions. Information about the NVETR Program funding is provided at the end of this paper.

This occasional paper provides an overview of the development of Australia's national training system and is a key knowledge document of a wider research project "Consistency with flexibility in the Australian national training system." This research project investigates the various approaches undertaken by each of the jurisdictions to establish a student entitlement funding model and also examines one of the often overlooked fundamentals of the national training system--the dynamic tension that exists between consistency and flexibility. This paper reflects on the history of vocational education and training (VET) in Australia. A key focus is the development of the national training system, which has emerged over the last two decades. The authors also explore the dynamic tension, built into the system, to achieve both national consistency and sufficient flexibility to ensure that training meets specific local, industry and learner needs. Australia's national training system: goals, objectives and key elements 1992 to 2015 is appended.

This work asks one simple question: "how reliable is the method used by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) to estimate projected rates of VET program completion?" In other words, how well do early projections align with actual completion rates some years later? Completion rates are simple to calculate with a cohort of students who start together in a very short program with a defined end date. The context in vocational education and training (VET) is, however, far more complex. Program lengths vary and may span several years, students commence at different times and many study part-time. Waiting for all students to complete or "drop out" of their training before calculating an actual completion rate gives a reliable answer, but is somewhat impractical. This paper summarises the key findings from a technical review of the validity of the method long used by NCVER in estimating projected completion rates for government-funded VET programs. This analysis required the interrogation of large longitudinal data sets with tens of millions of enrolments over multiple years. The outcomes are revealing because of ever-high interest in completion rates as measures of the efficiency and effectiveness of the VET sector. Key findings include the following: (1) The method long used by NCVER for estimating VET program completion rates using data from the National VET Provider Collection is shown to be reliable and aligns well with actual rates of completion for historical estimates; (2) Given that it takes a number of years for actual rates of completion to stabilise, the method is well suited for inclusion as part of any method of assessing completion rates, where the projected completion rate method is used to estimate rates for the most recent years and actual rates used for prior years; (3) The technical review has also shown that the current predictive method can be improved by defining a program's commencing year as the year it first appears in the National VET Provider Collection rather than using the commencing flag variable; and (4) It is anticipated that the incorporation of unique student identifiers into any preferred methodology, and its extension to total VET activity, can be phased in from the collection of 2017 training activity. "The Current Method for Projecting Rates of Completion: A Working Example" is appended.