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In this paper, I demonstrate the adequacy of economic systems to the basic provisions of synergetics, which makes the latter eligible for macroeconomic analysis. In justifying this statement, a synergetic approach to the development of a model of economic cycles was considered. The novelty of this model was related to the probabilistic description of the investment function and the perception of the economic system as a material object with certain properties. According to the model, the income oscillations are induced by both exogenous (investment fluctuations) and endogenous (system elasticity) causes. The cycle's amplitudes correlate with the intensity of investment fluctuations as well as the efficiency of the economic system. The duration of the economic cycle is determined by the inclusive wealth of the system and its dynamic factor, which characterizes the ability of the system to withstand investment fluctuations and eliminates their consequences. Thus, the economic cycle is interpreted as the 'natural noise' accompanying the functioning of market economics.The proposed model creates a mathematical basis for the numerical analysis of empirical economic data. An example of possible econometric applications of the model was considered using the current cyclic contraction in US incomes.

The relevance of the problems investigated in the article is determined by the fact that the world economy fragmentation worsens its dynamics, but its actual fragility became relevant after the global crisis of 2008–2009. In this regard, developing countries are increasingly characterized by extreme risks associated with the global markets’ instability – not only commodity markets, but also financial ones, where the innovative derivatives expansion has increased the speculators’ role, thereby making commodity markets more volatile. The overall situation is aggravated by debt problems in many countries. The purpose of the study is to investigate the nature and extent of the debt burden that has developed in the global economy in recent years and to assess the key challenges facing the monetary policies of countries around the world in order to counter the rising debt burden. The main results of the study include the assessment of the scale and nature of the debt burden in terms of its negative impact on global economic development, identification of the relationship between the business cycle passage and the debt accumulation in foreign countries, as well as the main directions of prospective monetary policy that will contribute to the debt burden reduction in the foreseeable future.

The interaction between employment and the economic cycle allows us to observe the behavior of cooperatives in Spain and to discuss the achievement of SDG-8. This analysis aimed to determine the employment-generating potential of Spanish cooperatives. An inductive methodology was used through automation in three analyses. The results found that decent and resilient cooperative employment is concentrated in four regions: Catalonia, Galicia, Extremadura, and Murcia. Over the period (2005-2020), cooperatives generate or destroy less employment than all Spanish firms during financial crises. Conversely, during a health crisis, the total of companies generates or destroy less employment than cooperatives. The forecast is that all national regions, except Ceuta and Melilla, will generate more cooperative employment in the short term.

The specifics of Russian economic cycles, in particular, is that their course differs markedly in different regions, resulting in increased asymmetry in regional development. The paper studied of the influence of historical and sectoral factors, which determine the economic specialisation of the region, and the features of the sectoral structure of the regional economic in growth of the old industrial regions of Russia. Thus, the author concluded the nature of their dynamics mainly determines the sectoral factor and revealed a significant number of promising economic specialisations is a characteristic of the old industrial territories in virtue of the historical features of the industry growth in the Soviet period and the external position of economic activity. The outcome is that it is necessary to conduct a selective regional policy aimed at overcoming the limitations of the resource, organizational, and institutional nature of the development of old industrial regions.

ABSTRACTHistorically, Euro-Mediterranean European countries have presented high levels of intra- and interregional socio-economic inequalities and are regular recipients of financial support under European Union Cohesion Policy. This paper provides evidence of regional convergence in the size of lower- and upper-middle-income classes across regions of France, Greece, Italy and Spain for the period 2004–17. Our results also reveal that changes in class size in neighbouring regions are associated with changes in the same direction in the lower- and upper-middle classes of the region of interest. As regards growth of class size in neighbouring regions, the convergence process is offset in both middle-income groups, but only partially for the upper-middle class. Furthermore, the economic cycle affects the process of regional convergence in the size of the middle class, although the effects are non-homogeneous for both middle-class groups. While increases or decreases in gross domestic product (GDP) do not seem to be closely related to upper-middle-class size, relatively persistent decreases rather than increases in GDP over time tend to be more linked to lower-middle-class size. These findings point to significant differences in the convergence dynamics between lower- and upper-middle classes, with the former being more sensitive to both neighbouring regions and the business cycle.

The strengthening of the role of fiscal policy in Kazakhstan in recent years has updated studies of the impact of its instruments on the economy. In this regard, the assessment of the fiscal multiplier is an important research task that has practical significance for increasing the effect of fiscal policy. The purpose of this article is to estimate the fiscal multiplier in Kazakhstan. The quarterly data for the period from 2000 to 2022 from the official statistical sources of information were used. For the specified time period, the authors made two distinct estimates of the fiscal multiplier of Kazakhstan’s public expenditures: with and without considering economic cycles. The comparison of the simulation results allowed the authors to note the shortcomings of the fiscal multiplier estimation without considering economic cycles. In the cycle-ignoring model, the lag of government spending shock was overestimated. Moreover, the fiscal multiplier without cycles turned out to be significant at the 10% significance level and amounted to only 0.2. The fiscal multiplier in the model with cycles during the recession period turned out to be significant at the 1% significance level and amounted to 0.44, and during the expansion period,, it turned out to be insignificant for any lag. Based on these results, the authors conclude that the theoretical importance of fiscal measures in a recession is confirmed for Kazakhstan. However, during a period of economic growth above the potential level, an additional positive shock of government spending will not lead to positive effects on the economic growth.

Being intertwined with economic development, urbanization determines the present and future development path of regions and countries. The intimate relationship between urban expansion and economic development is of particular interest in the case of large regions with complex (and mostly non-linear) socio-demographic dynamics and a relevant primacy in the metropolitan system of a given country. Typical examples of advanced economies with settlement systems characterized by a high degree of city primacy are peripheral and disadvantaged European countries such as Portugal and Greece. For instance, the administrative region of Attica—centered on Athens, the Greek capital city—represents the largest metropolitan area of the country, hosting almost 3.8 million inhabitants in 2021 (36.2% of the Greek population). In this context, this study investigates the internal redistribution of the resident population in metropolitan Athens and the progressive development of satellite cities over a relatively longtime interval, testing the assumptions of the Spatial Cycle Theory (SCT) between 1951 and 2021 and predicting future development paths up to 2051. To investigate past, present, and future intra-regional population trends, we used data released from decadal (1951–2021) censuses and demographic forecasts for the years 2031, 2041, and 2051. Being in line with the SCT, the empirical results of our study document how demographic dynamics of individual centers influence largely—and independently—the long-term development of metropolitan regions, both with policy/planning regulation and in conditions of non-intervention (spontaneous urban growth).

AbstractThis paper aims to analyze changes in the transmission of monetary policy via bank lending when considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the financial crisis. Using bank-level data of 31 commercial banks in Vietnam from 2007 to 2021, we provide consistent evidence that the impact of monetary policy on bank lending tends to be more pronounced in the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides, we document that the bank’s loan supply is more sensitive to monetary policy adjustments during the global financial crisis. Thus, a general pattern can be detected, i.e. the monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel is stronger under unfavorable macro contexts in Vietnam. Accordingly, it can be suggested that adjustments in the monetary policy of the central bank have still been effective in periods of macro difficulty and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy in Vietnam is not necessary yet. Regression results when using the sample-splitting technique are consistent with those using interactive variables, providing evidence to confirm the robustness of the findings obtained in the study.

Subnational jurisdictions, compared to the apparatuses of countries and large institutions, have less resources and human capital available to carry out an updated conjunctural follow-up of the economy (nowcasting) and for generating economic predictions (forecasting). This paper presents the results of our research aimed at facilitating the economic decision making of regional public agents. On the one hand, we present an interactive app that, based on dynamic factor analysis, simplifies and automates the construction of economic synthetic indicators and, on the other hand, we evaluate how to measure the uncertainty associated with the synthetic indicator. Theoretical and empirical developments show the suitability of the methodology and the approach for measuring and predicting the underlying aggregate evolution of the economy and, given the complexity associated with the dynamic factor analysis methodology, for using bootstrap techniques to measure the error. We also show that, when we combine different economic series by dynamic factor analysis, approximately 1000 resamples is sufficient to properly calculate the confidence intervals of the synthetic index in the different time instants.

This paper analyzes the evolution of the Argentine gross domestic product between 1875-2010. It intends to analyze its trajectory over time according to the periods of greater or lesser economic integration that the country experienced. An explanation of the poor performance that occurs between 1970-2010 (second globalization) is presented and compared with the period 1885-1914 (first globalization). This paper presents a series of graphic arguments that will allow us to analyze the evolution of the Argentine gross product from 1885 to 2010. It is not intended to explain or investigate the specific causes or reasons for the prosperity or depression that Argentina experienced in each of its episodes. Instead, an attempt is made to present longterm stylized facts seeking to compare moments of opening versus those of a closed economy over which the country oscillated in order to analyze long-term growth and economic volatility.

To delineate new directions of urban development in a context of demographic shrinkage in Southern Europe, the present study illustrates a comparative analysis of the demographic balance in metropolitan Athens, Greece (1956–2021). The analysis delineates short-term and long-term dynamics of the natural population balance, considering the impact of the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic, and assuming a contemporary increase in gross mortality rates and a marked fertility reduction associated with birth postponement. To address such objectives, we have compared the natural growth of population (the ratio of the total number of births to deaths) at ten year intervals (1956, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2009, 2019, 2020, 2021) in 115 municipalities of metropolitan Athens, controlling for the local context. The empirical results of descriptive statistics, spatial analysis, correlation statistics, non-parametric inference, and exploratory multivariate techniques outline the indirect impact of COVID-19 on population dynamics, being in some ways additive to the already observed effects of the Great Recession, reinforcing demographic shrinkage in specific local contexts. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Crisis likely accelerated the typical outcomes (population aging and low fertility) of the second demographic transition in Greece. These dynamics are associated with more volatile (and possibly reduced) immigration flows and with enhanced emigration, fueling urban shrinkage and a progressive economic decline of metropolitan regions, as our evidence suggests for Athens. Additional research should ascertain the aggregate, indirect role of pandemics in population dynamics as a proxy of urban and regional decline in European regions exposed to long-term aging.

The goal of the research is to elaborate recommendations dealing with shaping and using trademarks within the frames of national and international registration systems and to represent the condition and trends of trademark spread through analyzing data published by the World Organization of Intellectual Property and the national patent department (Rospatent). In the research such methods as deduction, scientific abstraction, logistic analysis and analogues were used. The authors study the national and international systems of trademarks registration. To show their interaction a universal model of developing and using trademarks was advanced. The article assesses the current global processes in spreading trademarks and compares the rates of filling applications for trademarks in the world and in Russia in 2010–2020. Countries were ranged by the number of application registrations, dynamics and structural changes in filling applications for trademarks among the Madrid system countries were described and the link between application filling and economic cycles was identified. The role of China and the place of Russia were depicted in modern trends of application filling according to the Madrid system. The authors think that the mentioned characteristics can help identify lines in trademarks spread within the short-term period.

Globalisation is the concept used to describe the economic, financial and social interdependence of states, generated by cross-border trade in goods, services, information, investment, technology and people. Demographic, political, technological evolution, economic interests and many other factors influence globalization, the general definition of which is modulating according to the realities of each generation. In this context, the academic environment updates the specialized literature, nuanced the terminology and theoretical aspects according to the evolution of the phenomenon, which is constantly changing. In the current context in which humanity is, in the midst of a global health crisis and with the prospect of an economic crisis, globalization brings benefits and disadvantages alike and returns to the attention of academia. Thus, the dilemma "Globalization or deglobalization?" becomes more topical than ever. This paper is an introspection in the conceptual aspects of globalization, in order to highlight the advantages brought to the economic and financial evolution, the factors of influence, as well as the risks that an interconnected society has

Factors, problems and risks are analyzed and systematized, in particular, technical-technological and innovation backwardness, peculiarities of economic cycles in economic systems of countries at different stages of development, as well as due to increasing competitiveness of some of them in the globalized world. crisis. It is shown that the situation worsens when the world economy grows, and against its background, imbalances in the global financial system are growing and speculative capital is spreading. It is revealed that the first global crisis of 2008–2010 was provoked by the uncontrolled spread of mortgage loans in the US real estate markets and the transfer of these processes to other countries, resulting in "financial bubbles", a market crash and a chain reaction involving others. markets. Emphasis is placed on the fact that when Ukraine's economy was in a state of permanent crisis, the domestic banking system withstood all domestic economic, financial, currency and other changes, as well as external turbulence, which provoked the strengthening of negative trends. It is established that the second financial and economic crisis of 2014–2016 is largely due to internal problems: much lower technological structure (third-fourth compared to fifth-sixth in economically developed countries), significant lag of Ukrainian industry in terms of innovation from industry EU countries, a high level of depreciation of fixed assets, much higher resource intensity and lower productivity, unrealistic in a few years to carry out innovative modernization of machine-building industries for the production of means of production. An acute threat has been revealed that the unlimited increase in speculative capital has exacerbated structural imbalances between the real and financial sectors. The main negative consequences of the crisis for the financial and banking system are systematized: they include more than three devaluations of the hryvnia, liquidation of more than a hundred banks and privatization of the largest of them, Privatbank, closure of several thousand banking branches and large–scale unemployment. It is confirmed that the third financial and economic crisis of 2020–2021 has a natural origin – it was caused by the pandemic COVID-19 caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV, and its consequences. It is established that the corona crisis has provoked various negative effects on the work of industry and social services, has caused significant damage to all countries and the vast majority of the world's population. It is shown that Ukraine proved to be more resilient to these troubles and the pre-crisis revival began in the second quarter of this year. It is substantiated that the implementation of macroprudential policy measures aimed at preventing the accumulation and implementation of systemic risks in the financial sector will help increase the stability of the financial and banking system, properly perform its main functions – financial intermediation and payments – and crisis management. It is shown that timely and effective implementation of macroprudential instruments will increase the stability of the national economy and reduce GDP volatility.

In this paper, we study the non-linear effect of the economic cycle and debt on the basic budget balance (BBB) in WAEMU countries over the period 1982-2018. Using a panel model with threshold effects and smooth transition, the hypothesis of non-linearity between the BBB, the economic cycle and debt was verified. The results show that an increase in the debt ratio above a threshold of 66% has a negative effect on the BBB’s elasticity relative to the economic cycle in the following period. Moreover, the results show that the dynamics of the BBB adjust the increase in external debt during high economic growth periods. This measure could be strengthen the reach of the stability and growth pact through its BBB as the economic integration lever initiated by WAEMU countries since several decades.

In India, the first official estimate of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) is released approximately 7–8 weeks after the end of the reference quarter. To provide an early estimate of current quarter GDP growth, we construct Coincident Economic Indicators for India (CEIIs) using a sequentially expanding list of 6, 9, and 12 high-frequency indicators. These indicators represent various sectors, display high contemporaneous correlation with GDP, and track GDP turning points well. CEII-6 includes domestic economic activity indicators, while CEII-9 incorporates indicators of trade and services and CEII-12 adds financial indicators in the model. We include a financial block in CEII-12 to reflect the growing influence of the financial sector on economic activity. CEIIs are estimated using a dynamic factor model which extracts a common trend underlying the high-frequency indicators. The extracted trend provides a real-time assessment of the state of the economy and helps identify sectors contributing to economic fluctuations. Furthermore, GDP nowcasts using CEIIs show considerable gains in both in-sample and out-of-sample accuracy. In particular, we observe that our GDP growth nowcast closely tracks the recent slowdown in the Indian economy.

Banks have a considerable ability to use financial leverage compared to non-bank firms to earn high profits and returns with support of the central bank as a last resort lender. The ability of banks to use leverage depends on internal characteristics such as size, profitability and risk, as well as environmental variables such as inflation, which affect the Business cycle. This study aims to find the effects of these variables on the dependency of banks on financial leverage in recession and booms periods. To this end, Hodrick-Prescott filter was used to extract business cycles. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) based on the data from 18 Iranian banks during 2005-2018 was used in order to test the research hypotheses. The results show that larger banks are more inclined to leverage and economic conditions have no significant effect on this desire. Banks with better financial stability and less risk rely on lower financial leverage in times of economic prosperity. The effect of profitability criteria on the leverage of banks depends on economic conditions. In times of economic prosperity, banks with better profitability have a higher incentive to leverage. Also, how the inflation affects the financial leverage of banks depends on the economic conditions. During an economic boom, inflation encourages more reliance on leverage in banks.

The paper investigates investor sentiment’s role in boosting Japanese companies to enhance their environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) performance. Using ESG scores of 367 firms between 2005 and 2019 from the ASSET4 database, we find that negative sentiment in the previous year, both firm and market level, can be a stimulation for the company’s commitments to its ESG activities next year. Notably, the moderating effect of the business sector and economic cycle on the sentiment-ESG inference are detected in our study differentiating between corporate and market sentiment, which have never been reported before. In detail, we discover that the impact of firm-specific sentiment is less pronounced for high-sensitive ESG firms. On the other hand, the driving force of market sentiment on corporate social behaviors weakens when economic recessions happen. Our results are robust after controlling for potential endogeneity issues and using alternative proxies for market sentiment.

The article deals with the comparative analysis of the medium–term cycles the economic activity the scale of the world and Russian economy. The economic situation in 2008–2020 was similarly charactarized by balternating recessions, plateaus and rises in both the Russian and global economies. It is a big question whether well–known crises of 2008, 2014 and 2020 were standard resale crises, and the wobbling of sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic are new secondary factors of market fluctuations.

We are proposing the results of economic development factors analysis, and there influence in forming and display of the economic cycles. The purpose of this article is to identify significant indicators of the cyclical development Azerbaijan economy for the capable of predicting and regulating phases of the onset of business cycle. Were checking 20 different indicators based by the annual data of the State Statistical Committee from 1998 to 2018. The relationship and influence of interest rates and the cyclical Azerbaijan economy development were examined. The methodological basis of this work became an analysis of such fundamental research data as papers IMF and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBEI) of the United States. Scientific methods of our research were an indicator approach, complemented by a qualitative analysis and a correlation-regression analysis. The calculations were performed by the freely distributed modern software - the statistical environment R, the most dynamically developing program in its class. So acyclic, countercyclical, and pro-cyclic indicators were identified by us. The features of the influence of these indicators on cyclic development in modern conditions were identified, their significance was determined. It was concluded that the possibility of economic cycles forecasting by the various phases indicators contributes to the modeling of economic activity. The results of the research can be applied both to monitor the development of the Azerbaijan economy and to predict the onset of the corresponding economic phases with the aim of adapting and reducing crises’ negative impact at the micro and macro levels.

In 2020, almost all large countries experienced a decline in GDP and other indicators of economic activity. This trend followed the news about the COVID-19 pandemic and had several features typical for cyclical economic crises. At the starting point, both demand and supply factors were negatively affected. This paper looks into data on GDP, retail sales and foreign trade dynamics in the first nine months of 2020, and analyzes the difference between developed and developing countries. Specific phenomena are observed: Germany and its small neighbors had relatively mild crises; developed countries had their trade balances deteriorating; the trade between the USA and China revived; and American deficit has been growing since April 2020. Some hypotheses to explain the above are offered. For instance, the German economy might have been able to adapt swiftly due to greater freedom of entrepreneurship than in France and Italy and due to the lowest debt ratios among G7 countries. The trade balances of developed countries deteriorated, possibly, because of a decline in production as a result of anti-COVID lockdowns, with consumption encouraged by stimulating policy measures.

The purpose of the paper is to identify patterns of influence of macroeconomic and sectoral factors on the dynamics of prices of aerated concrete products during 2015-2020. The method of factor analysis was used to identify the degree of influence of a number of macroeconomic indicators and raw material prices on the pricing of aerated concrete products. Using the graphical method, the patterns of change in the growth rate of aerated concrete prices at different phases of the economic cycle during this period were identified. Methodology. The study is based on the identification of correlation regression relationships between the price of aerated concrete products and raw materials for their production and some macroeconomic factors, as well as on the analysis of changes in the degree of influence of relevant factors on aerated concrete prices at different phases of the economic cycle. Re-search results. The article summarizes the theoretical approaches to the classification of pricing factors, defines the time limits of the phases of economic cycles in the economy of Ukraine during 2014-2020, identifies the main factors of price formation in the aerated concrete market of Ukraine and analyses the degree of their impact on prices of aerated concrete products in 2015-2020. Practical implications consist of identifying a number of correlations, as well as trends in aerated concrete prices at different phases of the economic cycle, which can be used to improve pricing in the construction industry. Value/originality Methodological approaches used for factor analysis of pricing of aerated concrete products can be used for timely price adjustment within the chosen pricing strategy, based on forecasts of macroeconomic development of the economy.

Purpose: the main purpose of this article is to present and develop a cyclic approach in the theory of innovation. This section of economic theory is based on the understanding of the innovation process as a dynamic system that develops (depending on the type of innovation) within the medium or long-term cycle. The cyclic approach has an insufficiently studied subject of research. In theoretical and practical aspects, this approach is very poorly developed, despite its prospects for this method. The application of the cyclic approach in the practical sphere will increase the effectiveness of activities planning in the field of the state innovation policy, as well as increase the efficiency of the state resources using.Methods: a set of methods of theoretical research is used, including: logical, system and abstract methods, as well as specific scientific (special) research methods. Based on the study of a wide range of scientific literature, as well as statistical and factual information on innovative issues, models (modeling method) were drawn up, which were graphically fixed in the figures illustrating the main provisions of the article.Results: this article develops the cyclic approach to the innovations study, proposed in the works of foreign and domestic scientists. The article describes and presents a scientific method of innovative processes management, called "triad of innovative and transformative activity". The article also contains a brief overview of the cyclic method development in the works of domestic and foreign researchers, giving a general idea of the elaboration degree of the scientific question.Conclusions and Relevance: the analysis of the main theories and concepts in the field of innovation, gives reason to argue that scientific views on the implementation of the innovation process contain a serious omission. It consists in the fact that it does not take into account the influence of cyclical conditions of various medium-term cycle phases or long-term cycle stages. In practice, this leads to asynchronous processes that prevent the effective innovation activities.

The article is aimed at substantiating a methodical approach to the formation of parametric constraints on compliance with development safety and life cycles of enterprise. It is noted that in a status of uncertainty, variability, loss of controllability, the process of making managerial decisions as to the forward-looking actions related to the development of enterprise is complicated. But the enterprise’s ability to develop depends on the stage of life cycle that the enterprise undergoes within a certain period of time. The present research defines the main positions of the theory of economic cycles, the place and role of characteristics such as crisis and development. The place of the enterprise’s life cycle in the system of crisis management has also been defined. The methodical approach to the formation of parametric constraints on compliance with development safety and life cycles of enterprise is substantiated. The key stage of the methodology of the formation of parametric constraints on compliance with development safety and life cycles of enterprise is building up a matrix, based on determining a multi-criterion integral indicator of the level of safety of the enterprise’s development, taking into account the stage of life cycle and the level of crisis in the appropriate period of time.

Objective: to identify the upward and downward waves of production cycle in the Perm region municipalities and to characterize fluctuations using the production function model.Methods: economic and mathematical modeling, correlation and regression analysis, time series analysis.Results: statistically significant models are constructed characterizing the dynamics of the volume of shipped goods of own production, works and services performed, for each municipality and the Perm region as a whole; the trend and cyclic component of each time series are identified; the production cycle duration is determined. Statistically significant production functions are constructed; the main indicators of labor and capital resources efficiency are defined; their values’ dynamics is analyzed in the context of the revealed cyclic fluctuations. The resources efficiency indicators, calculated by means of production function, showed that the amount of the produced goods in the Perm region municipalities is most influenced by labor resources consumption. It is found that the fluctuations of average and marginal efficiency of resource use, as well as the replacement rate, include a cyclic component, which is synchronized with a one-year lag with the cyclic fluctuations in the volume of shipped goods of own production, works and services performed.Scientific novelty: the combination of cyclicity analysis and production function modeling to identify the factors that have the greatest impact on the economic development of the Perm region municipalities. This aspect forms the novelty of the work, which consists in substantiated disclosure of trends in the economic development of the Perm region municipalities, based on economic and mathematical modeling.Practical significance: the main provisions and conclusions can be used by regional authorities in the development of the state regional anticyclical policy to ensure the coherence of regulatory measures and the formation of the necessary conditions for sustainable economic development of the Kama region.

This research aims to determine the factors that impact liquidity risk. The sample used in this research is a banking sector that is listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the period 2008-2017. Independent variable in this research bank size, deposits, profitability, cost of funds, asset quality, capital adequacy ratio, economic cycle, and inflation and the dependent variable is liquidity risk. The amount of the sample of the research amounted to 25 banking sector, by using purposive sampling. The result of this research indicates that bank size, profitability, cost of funds, and asset quality have a negative effect on liquidity risk, while deposits, capital adequacy ratio, economic cycle, and inflation have no impact on liquidity risk. The results of this study are expected to be used as a reference for bank managers and investors in looking at the factors that affect the liquidity risk in the banking industry.

The relationship between corporate strategies and firm performance has been one of the key debates in the discipline of Strategic Management. There are studies that analyse the moderating role that certain variables may play in that relationship. These variables tend to refer to aspects within the firm or, at the very least, within the competitive environment in which a firm operates. Nevertheless, the empirical evidence on the part the general environment plays from an economic perspective is much less common, and focuses on large corporations and on periods of economic growth. Accordingly, using a panel of 1,828 Spanish manufacturing firms of different sizes, an analysis is conducted of the differences in Return On Assets (ROA), Growth in Sales (GS) and Labor Productivity (LP) between specialised firms, those with related diversification, and those with unrelated diversification, between 2002 and 2011, in which there was a period of growth alternated with another one of economic recession. Although some superiority is noted of related diversification and specialisation over unrelated diversification, the differences between strategies are less significant in periods of economic recession, and vary according to the dimension of performance considered. These results reveal the need to consider the economic cycle as a contingent factor that affects the impact corporate strategies have on firm performance.

Over time many economists have focused on the problems of economic cycles and crises. Economic cycles are generally the result of global demand displacement, its decrease bringing about reduction of production as well whereas its increase leads to production growth. Starting from the fact that the variations of global demand are the basis of the comprehension of economic cycles, in the literature two categories of theories have been approached(known under the name of external theories and internal theories) which might explain the cyclic evolution of economy. For external theories, the cause of economic cycle is given by the exterior fluctuations of the economic system such as: wars, rates of rise of population and emigration, scientific discoveries and technological innovations. Internal theories refer to mechanisms within the economic system which generates economic cycles and which determines the cyclic movement. According to these theories the whole expansion leads to recession and shrinkage, and the whole shrinkage leads at its turn to expansion similar to a process which recommences regularly.

The objective of this study is to identify the key drivers that explain labor informality in Colombia in the period from 2008 to 2017. A quantitative descriptive method was adopted to analyze data from the Great Integrated Household Survey (GEIH) conducted by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) as well as several important sources in the literature. Drivers were classified into cyclic and acyclic, depending on their behavior with respect to the general economic cycle. The analysis revealed that Bogotá, Medellín, Manizales, Pereira, and Cali present the lowest rates of informal employment in the country (between 40% and 50%). Additionally, the most outstanding conclusion is that there is a linear or direct relationship between the length of unemployment and informality: the longer individuals are unemployed, the more likely they are to join the informal sector.

Objective: The aim of the research was to analyse morphological changes in the Visegrad Group business cycles before and after the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, and to provide comparison of their overall economic performance in terms of the real GDP growth, unemployment rate changes and price stability. Research Design & Methods: Visegrad Group’s business cycles were determined by employing Hodrick and Prescott filter to extract cyclical fluctuations, while Bry and Boschan algorithm was applied to identify the turning points of the cycles. Morphological features of business cycles were examined. The analysis was supplemented by examining unemployment rate and price stability. Findings: The financial crisis resulted in the drop of the GDP growth and a periodical increase in unemployment. Nevertheless, in the 20 analysed years the unemployment rate tends to attain lower values, while prices become more stable. The last two economic cycles resulted in post-crisis rebound of the GDP growth. At the same time, the performance of the countries (except for outperforming Poland) becomes more and more correlated. Implications & Recommendations: The Visegrad Group was affected by the crisis and it is plausible that any future disturbances in the world economy might affect it again. Further research aiming at deeper understanding of how a particular country was affected could help mitigate a negative impact of future crises. Contribution & Value Added: The article helps to understand how the crisis affected the V4 economies in terms of the real GDP growth, unemployment rate and price stability. It indicates how the economic aggregates behaved before and after the crash.

The article is aimed at substantiating, defining and analyzing the synchronization of both the financial and the business cycles by forming an appropriate level of public confidence. The retrospective analysis of development and interconnection of financial and business cycles is carried out with attention to formation of a corresponding level of public confidence. It is substantiated that confidence is the only instrument of synchronization of both the financial and the business cycles. As a result of research of tendencies of development of financial markets of the USA, EU and Ukraine in pre-crisis, crisis and crisis periods, taking into consideration high level of financial integration and financialization of world economies, it is reasoned that financial Instability is a major factor in the erosion and crisis of public confidence. The article considers the situations of irrational behavior of economic agents as result of formation and accumulation of imbalances in the financial market and their negative consequences for economic security of the country. It is proved that confidence is a procyclical indicator that determines the cycle of economic development with a certain time lag. With a view to the turmoil in the financial market forming the corresponding cyclical fluctuations of public confidence, the necessity of research of business cycle through the prism of public confidence (established in accordance with the financial cycle), but with lagging in terms of synchronization, is substantiated.

The manufacturing industry is a key sector in many national economies and is involved in creating sustainable economic growth. At the same time, it is a sector sensitive to internal and external impacts that result in fluctuations in the economic cycle, copying its development or even outstripping the development of economic cycles. The main objective of this contribution was to identify the relationship between manufacturing and GDP, which represents the economic cycle in European Union countries. The time series of selected indicators of the manufacturing industry and GDP from the Eurostat database for Q1 2000-Q4 2016 were used for analysis purposes. An analysis of 296 time series with a quarterly periodicity from 22 EU countries (including the United Kingdom) was performed. The results of analyses indicate that the processing industry is a sector with significant cyclical behavior. In most countries, production and sales in the manufacturing industry behaved as concurrent indicators, changes in production and sales almost immediately reflected in the growth or decline in GDP. Labor market indicators have been shown to be delayed cyclical indicators. Changes in the economic development of the countries have a strong impact on employment, the remuneration of employees and the number of hours worked in the sector. Strong cyclical industries must be constantly monitored, as negative changes in these sectors will automatically exacerbate the economic cycle recession. The results of our analyses represent a valuable platform for economic policy makers and regional strategic plans.

At present we can observe the finance and economic crisis which happened in global scale. The article provides the notion of crisis, describes its principle characteristics and discloses the cyclic nature of crises. It is pointed out that crisis is one-two phases of the wave economic cycle. Different degree of economic disproportions is a result of economic wave lowering which corresponds to crisis. The author investigates the achievements of the cyclic theory and advantages that it provides for economic situation analysis, especially in conditions of the crisis. Undeveloped aspects of economic cycles are shown and their importance for analysis and prevention of deep sinking in crisis are illustrated.

The paper is devoted to the analysis of the impact of changes in the level of economic growth on the volumes deciding about the condition of public finances. The main hypothesis put forward in the paper is the assertion that the changes of the economic situation affect substantially the state of public finances, causing changes on the level of revenues and expenditures of public sector. The second hypothesis is the assertion that fiscal policy in Poland, in the analyzed period, was of a passive nature. The paper contains data analysis of the period between 2007 and 2015 provided by the Central Statistical Office with the use of correlation rates. Statistically significant negative dependence was observed between GDP growth and expenditures of the State budget, total public debt and government sub-sector debt. Such results indicate the dominance of passive fiscal policy during the analyzed period.

Capital structure as the most important and effective parameter on the orientation and valuation of the firm in the capital markets has been considered. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the company's capital structure with an emphasis on the business cycle in the companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. In this study, 102 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2007 to 2014 were studied; among the 816 firms-year based on business model in this research; 483 firms-year from recession period and 333 firms-year from prosperity. The study in terms of purpose is applied and the research method is correlation and causal after events and hypothesis testing is correlation and classic regression tests. The results show that the criteria of profitability, firm size, tangible assets and business risk have significant and strong effects (as the company's independent variables) on capital structure (as the dependent variable).

The question of an essence and types of the government fiscal policy on different stages of economic cycle are investigated in this article. The main types of fiscal policy in Ukraine during 1991-2015 years on the different phases of the economic cycle are described in the given research.

The aim of this study is to determine whether there are statistically significant differences between small Spanish companies according to their family or non-family nature, in terms of their main economic and financial indicators. The study data analysed correspond to the years 2003, 2007 and 2013, which enabled us to examine whether the characteristics observed and any differences between these companies persisted during a period featuring three different economic scenarios. The study sample was composed of 21,192 small family firms and 4,449 small non-family firms. The results obtained show that, regardless of the national economic situation, there were statistically significant differences between the two types of companies for certain economic and financial indicators. We conclude that the family nature of a company has a negative impact on productivity, the number of employees and levels of investment and turnover. Moreover, family firms face higher costs of external financing than do non-family businesses.

The ability to predict economic recession on investment activity of transnational corporations has been investigated in this paper. Cash flow statement of transnational corporations as a source of investment analysis has been considered. The conclusion about the prospects of using the method of analysis of investment activity on the basis of the financial statements of transnational corporations to predict the recession has been done. The advantage of this method is its efficiency, that means the possibility of quarterly forecasts, as well as the fact that the decrease in investment activity, as an indicator of changes in precession occurs rather decrease in gross domestic product. The disadvantage of this method is the impact on the investment activity of transnational corporations subjective factors and possible problems with access to the financial statements of such companies. It was found that the process of reducing of the investments, as a factor of recessionary changes, occurs earlier than the decline in GDP.

ABSTRACT This article investigates the relationship between ex-post Equity Risk Premium (ERP) on the Colombian stock market and the economic cycles observed in the country using methodologies based on the Hodrick-Prescott and Kalman filters. Accordingly, a short-term econometric model is put forward for each filter, incorporating monthly data from 2008 to 2014. This reveals better adjustments in the case of the Kalman filter. Furthermore, the models show that the relationship between variables that reflect economic activity and ERP are counter-cyclical but not simultaneous, with a lag of up to two periods.******Este artículo pretende indagar por la relación existente entre la prima por riesgo ex post (ERP) del mercado accionario colombiano y los ciclos económicos observados para este país, a través de las metodologías del filtro mecánico de Hodrick-Prescott y el filtro de Kalman. Así, se plantea un modelo econométrico a corto plazo para cada uno de los filtros, con información mensual desde 2008 a 2014, lo que permite evidenciar mejores ajustes en el caso Kalman. Los modelos muestran que la relación entre las variables que capturan la actividad económica y la ERP resultó ser contra cíclica pero no contemporánea, con rezagos de hasta dos periodos.

The implementation of innovation strategies in SMEs is subjected to changes in the economic cycle. The reliability of economic trend indicators varies according to economic trends. The author deals with the relationship between selected business cycle survey indicators and time periods that correspond to the different phases of the economic cycle between the years 2003−2017. The aim of the article is to find out whether selected business cycle surveys indicators are equally reliable across the economic cycle. To solve the problem, first, the consensus of a selected business cycle surveys indicator and the performance of the mechanical engineering industry were evaluated, and then, the results were put into the context of the time period and tested with nonparametric ANOVA. The results show that the selected indicator was more reliable in periods of growth and less reliable in downturns, which is a signal for SMEs as to how to interpret the business cycle surveys. The use of future development assessments provides important information for businesses that make investment decisions and help them think over funding for innovation.

The article is devoted to definition of the functional value of the many-sided phenomenon of the innovation process in ensuring positive dynamics of economic development and appearance of cyclic fluctuations in the market economy. It differentiates component elements of the “innovation process” category and conducts its structurisation. It describes the essence of “novation”, “innovation”, “innovation activity”, “innovation project” and “innovation process” notions. It substantiates the key role of innovation projects in ensuring regular and periodic stimulation of processes of economic growth. It shows their place on curves of the life cycle of goods, which embodies cyclic fluctuations in economy.Статья посвящена определению функционального значения многогранного явления инновационного процесса в обеспечении позитивной динамики экономического развития и появлении циклических колебаний в рыночной экономике. Проведено четкое разделение составных элементов категории «инновационный процесс» и осуществлена их структуризация. Раскрыта сущность понятий «новация», «инновация», «инновационная деятельность», «инновационный проект» и «инновационный процесс». Обоснована ключевая роль инновационных проектов в обеспечении закономерного и периодического стимулирования процессов экономического роста. Выяснено их место на кривых жизненного цикла товаров, что олицетворяет циклические колебания в экономике.

Market equilibrium is an illusion. The economic reality shows us that the main characteristic of the markets is the state of instability. The complexity of the phenomenon and the strong implications engendered by the economic fluctuations in the macro system, justify the rich scientific research activity of the main schools of economic thought to explain it. The Austrian school of economic thought has one of the most realistic analyses of the factors who generate the market instability.

The article views the issues of the cyclic development of market economy, the features of economic cycle in Russia. The role of human factor and its peculiarity in the Russian economic cycle is defined in particular.

This paper explores the contribution of a selection of elements representative of human capital and perception as determinants of entrepreneurship in different stages of the economic cycle. The results confirm the significance of self efficacy, the perception of opportunities, and the fear of failure, and highlight the importance of personal knowledge of entrepreneurs. They remain influential in different economic times in which their analyses have been replicated, although some differences are felt that point to, in contraction periods, a loss of influence of the confidence in one’s own abilities, compared to an increase in the case of judgment on the existence of opportunities in the environment, and in the case of the presence of entrepreneurs in the surrounding context. In contrast, the behavior of the fear of failure, as a barrier to entrepreneurship, remains unchanged in an adverse context with respect to a positive context due to reduced opportunity costs.

Negative consequences of economic fluctuations and economic downturns influence the significance of research in this area. Results of such research allow providing insights and sugges¬tions for governments to make political-economic decisions. The article investigates the impact of slowing economy on enterprises, the reasons of fluctuations of economic cycles and their characteristics, phases of economic cycle: growth, peak, downturn and crisis. The article studies definition of slowing economy, its reasons, ratios, and inter-relationship between various ratios. Methodology of evaluating economic cycles is provided in the article. Santrauka Didėjantys neigiami ekonominių svyravimų ir ekonomikos nuosmukio padariniai nulemia šioje srityje atliekamų tyrimų svarbą. Remiantis tyrimų rezultatais, pateikiamos įžvalgos ir pasiūlymai vyriausybės politiniams – ekonominiams sprendimams priimti. Straipsnyje nagrinėjamas lėtėjančios ekonomikos poveikis įmonėms, išgrynintos pagrindinės ekonomikos ciklų svyravimų priežastys ir jų charakteristikos. Nagrinėjamos ekonominio ciklo fazės: pakilimas, viršūnė, nuosmukis ir krizė. Analizuojama ekonomikos lėtėjimo samprata, priežastys, rodikliai ir įvairių ekonominių rodiklių sąveika. Taip pat pateikiama ekonominių ciklų vertinimo metodika. Reikšminiai žodžiai: ekonominiai ciklai, ciklo fazės, lėtėjimas, pakilimas, krizė, lėtėjimo rodikliai.

This paper analyzes the fundamental concepts that compose the phenomenon of political business cycle and the models that have been created to support this theoretical background. A first theoryon this concept is considered to be the classic perspective, which has been developed by William Nordhaus in 1975. As a result of his work, other research started to appear with multiple theories and visions upon this phenomenon. Through this paper we have tried to highlight the most important of these theories. For each major theory, conclusions are presented. In the end, an attempt is made to find reasoned conclusions concerning the validity of these theories to the economic environment.

This paper reviews the demographic policy of birth control developed countries and Russia in order to find ways of increasing its efficiency. With the help of scientific methods carried out a synthesis of existing experience, stimulate the birth rate, revealed the shortcomings of the demographic policy. As a result of formulating proposals to optimize the activity of the authorities to achieve the objectives identified in the Concept of Demographic Policy of Russia up to 2025 results can be used in the formation of regional and / or federal program and target documents of one of the tasks increase in birth rate. It is shown that the effectiveness of population policy in Russia is limited to a number of conditions. This lack of organizational structure, implementing and coordinating actions of the authorities to implement policies, lack of applied economic mechanisms, especially their inability to lead to significant changes in standard of living of families with children, implementation of measures that can be seen as to limit the birth rate (the spread public support contraception, abortion is free); brevity across demographics.

The aim of the present paper is to analyze comparatively the main economic theories regarding theeconomic crises, including the premises for starting the present financial and economic vulnerabilities onnational and international level. On ideological level, the present global financial and economic crisis, similarto the other ones throughout history, initiated an intellectual debate among several applicable theories: AdamSmith’s “invisible hand” liberal theory, Keynes’s state interventionism theory and even neo-Marxist theories.The issue of the economic cycle and the crisis is a very complex one that cannot be analyzed and explained ina few pages, because talking about the crisis and the economic cycle supposes an analysis of all aspects of themarket economy. Thus, we try to found out which of these theories best explain the economic cycles andcrises and we believe that the Great Depression of ‘29-‘33 confirmed to a great extent the “Austrian” theoryof the economic cycle.

The process of economic growth is, as is known, the basic engine of increasing the living standard. The importance of growth in the market economy is revealed by the association of a process compatibility of economic strength of a country with increasing wealth and welfare. Due to the complexity of the concept of economic growth, its expression can be done through a system of indicators to allow more accurate assessment, an analysis of the evolution. Growth results can be measured through a series of synthetic indicators including: gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national product (GNP).

The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.