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Abstract Background Within the Learning Health System (LHS) model, learning routines, including evaluation, allow for continuous incremental change to take place. Within these learning routines, evaluation assists in problem identification, data collection, and data transformation into contextualized information, which is then re-applied to the LHS environment. Evaluation that catalyzes learning and improvement may also contribute to health innovation sustainability. However, there is little consensus as to why certain evaluations seem to support learning and sustainability, while others impede it. This realist synthesis seeks to understand the contextual factors and underlying mechanisms or drivers that best support health systems learning and sustainable innovation. Methods This synthesis will be guided by Pawson and colleagues’ 2005 and Emmel and colleagues’ 2018 guidelines for conducting realist syntheses. The review process will encompass five steps: (1) scoping the review, (2) building theories, (3) identifying the evidence, (4) evidence selection and appraisal, and (5) data extraction and synthesis. An Expert Committee comprised of leaders in evaluation, innovation, sustainability, and realist methodology will guide this synthesis. Review findings will be reported using the RAMESES guidelines. Discussion The use of a realist review will allow for exploration and theorizing about the contextual factors and underlying mechanisms that make evaluations ‘work’ (or ‘not work’) to support learning and sustainability. Depending on results, we will attempt to synthesize findings into a series of recommendations for evaluations with the intention to support health systems learning and sustainability. Finalized results will be presented at national and international conferences, as well as disseminated via a peer-reviewed publication. Systematic review registration This realist synthesis protocol has been registered with PROSPERO ( https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/ ID 382690).

Among the challenges in delivering integrated health and social care services is the need to attend to the coordination of tasks, roles, activities, and operations, while considering how these efforts are experienced by patients, carers and communities. The literature has noted an important disconnect between how providers and leaders view their efforts to coordinate service delivery, and how patients perceive these efforts on the receiving end. Our team has provided guidance to integrated care efforts in Ontario, Canada by drawing on Goffman’s theory of Dramaturgy to help classify the actions of integrated care delivery as linked to the roles individuals play in the delivery of care. Using this framing helps to uncover how “backstage” processes (such as team-functioning, funding models, and digital infrastructures) create a necessary foundation on which “frontstage” actions (or performances) can be effectively delivered.

Purpose: This study examined the impact of multimorbidity on severe COVID-19 outcomes in community and long-term care (LTC) settings, alone and in interaction with age and sex. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all Ontarians who tested positive for COVID-19 between January-2020 and May-2021 with follow-up until June 2021. We used cox regression to evaluate the adjusted impact of multimorbidity, individual characteristics, and interactions on time to hospitalization and death (any cause). Results: 24.5% of the cohort had 2 or more pre-existing conditions. Multimorbidity was associated with 28% to 170% shorter time to hospitalization and death, respectively. However, predictors of hospitalization and death differed for people living in community and LTC. In community, increasing multimorbidity and age predicted shortened time to hospitalization and death. In LTC, we found none of the predictors examined were associated with time to hospitalization, except for increasing age that predicted reduced time to death up to 40.6 times. Sex was a predictor across all settings and outcomes: among male the risk of hospitalization or death was higher shortly after infection (e.g. HR for males at 14 days = 30.3) while among female risk was higher for both outcome in the longer term (e.g. HR for males at 150 days = 0.16). Age and sex modified the impact of multimorbidity in the community. Conclusion: Community-focused public health measures should be targeted and consider sociodemographic and clinical characteristics such as multimorbidity. In LTC settings, further research is needed to identify factors that may contribute to improved outcomes.

Abstract Background Primary care surveys are a key source of evaluative data; understanding how survey respondents compare to the intended population is important to understand results in context. The objective of this study was to examine the physician and patient representativeness of two primary care surveys (TRANSFORMATION and QUALICOPC) that each used different sampling and recruitment techniques. Methods We linked the physician and patient participants of the two surveys to health administrative databases. Patients were compared to other patients visiting the practice on the same day and other randomly selected dates using sociodemographic data, chronic disease diagnosis, and health system utilization. Physicians were compared to other physicians in the same practice, and other physicians in the intended geographic area using sociodemographic and practice characteristics. Results Physician respondents of the TRANSFORMATION survey included more males compared to their practice groups, but not to other physicians in the area. TRANSFORMATION physicians cared for a larger roster of patients than other physicians in the area. Patient respondents of the QUALICOPC survey did not have meaningful differences from other patients who visit the practice. Patient respondents of the TRANSFORMATION survey resided in more rural areas, had less chronic disease, and had lower use of health services than other patients visiting the practice. Conclusion Differences in survey recruitment methods at the physician and patient level may help to explain some of the differences in representativeness. When conducting primary care surveys, investigators should consider diverse methods of ensuring representativeness to limit the potential for nonresponse bias.

Abstract Background There is currently mixed evidence on the influence of long-term conditions and deprivation on mortality. We aimed to explore whether number of long-term conditions contribute to socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, whether the influence of number of conditions on mortality is consistent across socioeconomic groups and whether these associations vary by working age (18–64 years) and older adults (65 + years). We provide a cross-jurisdiction comparison between England and Ontario, by replicating the analysis using comparable representative datasets. Methods Participants were randomly selected from Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England and health administrative data in Ontario. They were followed from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019 or death or deregistration. Number of conditions was counted at baseline. Deprivation was measured according to the participant’s area of residence. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazards of mortality by number of conditions, deprivation and their interaction, with adjustment for age and sex and stratified between working age and older adults in England (N = 599,487) and Ontario (N = 594,546). Findings There is a deprivation gradient in mortality between those living in the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived areas in England and Ontario. Number of conditions at baseline was associated with increasing mortality. The association was stronger in working age compared with older adults respectively in England (HR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.56,1.64 and HR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.25,1.27) and Ontario (HR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.66,1.72 and HR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.38,1.40). Number of conditions moderated the socioeconomic gradient in mortality: a shallower gradient was seen for persons with more long-term conditions. Conclusions Number of conditions contributes to higher mortality rate and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in England and Ontario. Current health care systems are fragmented and do not compensate for socioeconomic disadvantages, contributing to poor outcomes particularly for those managing multiple long-term conditions. Further work should identify how health systems can better support patients and clinicians who are working to prevent the development and improve the management of multiple long-term conditions, especially for individuals living in socioeconomically deprived areas.

IntroductionAs demand for intensive case management services continues to outpace supply, community mental health agencies in Toronto, Ontario, introduced Short-Term Case Management (STCM).ObjectiveThis study sought to explore case managers’ perspectives and experiences with this new service delivery model.MethodsFocus groups were conducted with twenty-one case managers, and transcripts analyzed using thematic analysis.ResultsEmerging themes suggest that despite embracing a recovery approach, case managers expressed mixed views on the acceptability and appropriateness of this service delivery model as an intervention.ConclusionThe ideal population for this intervention are adults with mental health issues in need of system navigation, and those motivated to address their goals. Further research is needed to establish fidelity criteria.

Abstract Background Despite the potential for community-based exercise programs supported through healthcare-community partnerships (CBEP-HCPs) to improve function post-stroke, insufficient trial evidence limits widespread program implementation and funding. We evaluated the feasibility and acceptability of a CBEP-HCP compared to a waitlist control group to improve everyday function among people post-stroke. Methods We conducted a 3-site, pilot randomized trial with blinded follow-up evaluations at 3, 6, and 10 months. Community-dwelling adults able to walk 10 m were stratified by site and gait speed and randomized (1:1) to a CBEP-HCP or waitlist control group. The CBEP-HCP involved a 1-h, group exercise class, with repetitive and progressive practice of functional balance and mobility tasks, twice a week for 12 weeks. We offered the exercise program to the waitlist group at 10 months. We interviewed 13 participants and 9 caregivers post-intervention and triangulated quantitative and qualitative results. Study outcomes included feasibility of recruitment, interventions, retention, and data collection, and potential effect on everyday function. Results Thirty-three people with stroke were randomized to the intervention (n = 16) or waitlist group (n = 17). We recruited 1–2 participants/month at each site. Participants preferred being recruited by a familiar healthcare professional. Participants described a 10- or 12-month wait in the control group as too long. The exercise program was implemented per protocol across sites. Five participants (31%) in the intervention group attended fewer than 50% of classes for health reasons. In the intervention and waitlist group, retention was 88% and 82%, respectively, and attendance at 10-month evaluations was 63% and 71%, respectively. Participants described inclement weather, availability of transportation, and long commutes as barriers to attending exercise classes and evaluations. Among participants in the CBEP-HCP who attended ≥ 50% of classes, quantitative and qualitative results suggested an immediate effect of the intervention on balance, balance self-efficacy, lower limb strength, everyday function, and overall health. Conclusion The CBEP-HCP appears feasible and potentially beneficial. Findings will inform protocol revisions to optimize recruitment, and program and evaluation attendance in a future trial. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03122626 . Registered April 21, 2017 — retrospectively registered.

Over the last three decades, integrated care has emerged as an important health system strategy to improve population health while addressing the unique needs of structurally marginalised communities. However, less attention has been given to the role of integrated care in addressing issues related to inequities in health and health care. In this commentary we introduce the concept of Equity Promoting Integrated Care (EPIC) that situates integrated care in a social justice context to frame the actions necessary to center equity as a priority for integrated care. We suggest that efforts to advance the design and implementation of integrated care should focus on three avenues for future research and practice, namely, the collaborative mobilization of a global network of integrated care stakeholders to advocate for social justice and health equity, investing in equity-focused approaches to implementation science that highlight the importance of social concepts such as colonialism and intersectionality to advance the theory and practice of implementing EPIC models of care, and leveraging innovative approaches to measuring equity-related aspects of integrated care to inform continuous improvement of health systems.

Abstract Background Digital health technologies can support primary care delivery, but clinical uptake in primary care is limited. This study explores enablers and barriers experienced by primary care providers when adopting new digital health technologies, using the example of the electronic Patient Reported Outcome (ePRO) tool; a mobile application and web portal designed to support goal-oriented care. To better understand implementation drivers and barriers primary care providers’ usage behaviours are compared to their perspectives on ePRO utility and fit to support care for patients with complex care needs. Methods This qualitative sub-analysis was part of a larger trial evaluating the use of the ePRO tool in primary care. Qualitative interviews were conducted with providers at the midpoint (i.e. 4.5–6 months after ePRO implementation) and end-point (i.e. 9–12 months after ePRO implementation) of the trial. Interviews explored providers’ experiences and perceptions of integrating the tool within their clinical practice. Interview data were analyzed using a hybrid thematic analysis and guided by the Technology Acceptance Model. Data from thirteen providers from three distinct primary care sites were included in the presented study. Results Three core themes were identified: (1) Perceived usefulness: perceptions of the tool’s alignment with providers’ typical approach to care, impact and value and fit with existing workflows influenced providers’ intention to use the tool and usage behaviour; (2) Behavioural intention: providers had a high or low behavioural intention, and for some, it changed over time; and (3) Improving usage behaviour: enabling external factors and enhancing the tool’s perceived ease of use may improve usage behaviour. Conclusions Multiple refinements/iterations of the ePRO tool (e.g. enhancing the tool’s alignment with provider workflows and functions) may be needed to enhance providers’ usage behaviour, perceived usefulness and behavioural intention. Enabling external factors, such as organizational and IT support, are also necessary to increase providers’ usage behaviour. Lessons from this study advance knowledge of technology implementation in primary care. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov Identified NCT02917954. Registered September 2016, https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/study/NCT02917954

Abstract Background Many countries, including Canada, have introduced primary care reforms to improve health system functioning and value. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between receiving care from interprofessional primary care teams and after-hours access to care, patient-reported walk-in clinic visits and emergency department use. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study linking population-based administrative databases to Ontario’s Health Care Experience Survey (HCES) between 2012 and 2018. We adjusted for physician group characteristics as well as individual physician and patient characteristics while assessing the relationship between receiving care from interprofessional teams and the outcomes of interest. Results As of March 31st, 2015, there were 465 physician groups with HCES respondents of which 177 (38.0%) were interprofessional teams and 288 (62.0%) were non-interprofessional teams in the same blended capitation reimbursement model. In this period, there were 4518 physicians with HCES respondents, of whom 2131 (47.2%) were in interprofessional teams and 2387 (52.8%) were in non-interprofessional teams. There were 10,102 HCES respondents included in this study, of whom 42.4% were in interprofessional teams and 42.3% were in non-interprofessional teams. After adjustment, we found that being in an interprofessional team was associated with an increase in the odds of patients reporting same/next day access to care by 12.0% (OR = 1.12 CI = 1.00 to 1.24 p-value 0.0436) and a decrease in the odds of patients reporting walk-in clinic use by 16% (OR = 0.84 CI = 0.75 to 0.94 p-value 0.0019). After adjustment, there were no significant differences in patient-reported after-hours access to care and emergency department use. Conclusions Ontario has invested heavily in interprofessional primary care teams. As compared to patients in non-interprofessional teams, patients in interprofessional teams self-reported more timely access to care and less walk-in clinic use but no significant difference in self-reported access to after-hours care or in emergency department use. For jurisdictions aiming to expand physician voluntary participation in interprofessional teams, our study results inform expectations around access to care and health services utilization.

Abstract Background Patient engagement (PE) in health‐care planning and improvement is a growing practice. We lack evidence‐based guidance for PE, particularly in hospital settings. This study explored how to optimize PE in hospitals. Methods This study was based on qualitative interviews with individuals in various roles at hospitals with high PE capacity. We asked how patients were engaged, rationale for approaches chosen and solutions for key challenges. We identified themes using content analysis. Results Participants included 40 patient/family advisors, PE managers, clinicians and executives from 9 hospitals (2

Abstract Background Patient engagement (PE) in planning or improving hospital facilities or services is one approach for improving healthcare delivery and outcomes. To provide evidence on hospital capacity needed to support PE, we described the attributes of hospital PE capacity associated with clinical quality measures. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional survey of general and specialty hospitals based on the Measuring Organizational Readiness for Patient Engagement framework. We derived a PE capacity index measure, and with Multiple Correspondence Analysis, assessed the association of PE capacity with hospital type, and rates of hand-washing, C. difficile infection rates and 30-day readmission. Results Respondents (91, 66.4%) included general:

Understanding the symptom burden trajectory for metastatic breast cancer patients can enable the provision of appropriate supportive care for symptom management. The aim of this study was to describe the longitudinal trajectories of symptom burden for metastatic breast cancer patients at the population-level. A cohort of 995 metastatic breast cancer patients with 16,146 Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS) assessments was constructed using linked population-level health administrative databases. The patient-reported ESAS total symptom distress score (TSDS) was studied over time using group-based trajectory modeling, and covariate influences on trajectory patterns were examined. Cohort patients experienced symptom burden that could be divided into six distinct trajectories. Patients experiencing a higher baseline TSDS were likely to be classified into trajectory groups with high, uncontrolled TSDS within the study follow-up period (χ2 (1, N = 995) = 136.25, p < 0.001). Compared to patients classified in the group trajectory with the highest relative TSDS (Group 6), patients classified in the lowest relative TSDS trajectory group (Group 1) were more likely to not have comorbidities (97.34% (for Groups 1–3) vs. 91.82% (for Group 6); p < 0.05), more likely to receive chemotherapy (86.52% vs. 80.50%; p < 0.05), and less likely to receive palliative care (52.81% vs. 79.25%; p < 0.0001). Receiving radiotherapy was a significant predictor of how symptom burden was experienced in all identified groups. Overall, metastatic breast cancer patients follow heterogeneous symptom burden trajectories over time, with some experiencing a higher, uncontrolled symptom burden. Understanding trajectories can assist in establishing risk-stratified care pathways for patients.

Introduction: In 2019, Ontario’s Ministry of Health (the Ministry) introduced Ontario Health Teams (OHTs) to provide population-based integrated healthcare. Primary care was foundational to this approach. We sought to identify factors that impacted primary care engagement during OHT formation from different perspectives. Methods: Interviews with 111 participants (administrators n = 80; primary care providers n = 17; patient family advisors = 14) from 11 OHTs were conducted following a semi-structured guide. Interviews were transcribed, coded, and thematically analyzed. Results: Participants felt that primary care engagement was an ongoing, continuous cycle. Four themes were identified: 1) ‘A low rules environment’: limited direction from the Ministry (system-level), 2) ‘They’re at different starting points’: impact of local context (initiative-level); 3) ‘We want primary care to be actively involved’: engagement efforts made by OHTs (initiative-level); 4) ‘Waiting to hear a little bit more’: primary care concerns about the OHT approach (sector-level). Thirteen factors impacting primary care engagement were identified across the four themes. Discussion and Conclusion: The 13 factors influencing primary care engagement were interconnected and operated at health system, integrated care initiative, and sector levels. Future research should focus on integrated care initiatives as they mature, to address potential gaps in the involvement of primary care physicians.

Abstract Background Improving health system value and efficiency are considered major policy priorities internationally. Ontario has undergone a primary care reform that included introduction of interprofessional teams. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between receiving care from interprofessional versus non-interprofessional primary care teams and ambulatory care sensitive condition (ACSC) hospitalizations and hospital readmissions. Methods Population-based administrative databases were linked to form data extractions of interest between the years of 2003–2005 and 2015–2017 in Ontario, Canada. The data sources were available through ICES. The study design was a retrospective longitudinal cohort. We used a “difference-in-differences” approach for evaluating changes in ACSC hospitalizations and hospital readmissions before and after the introduction of interprofessional team-based primary care while adjusting for physician group, physician and patient characteristics. Results As of March 31st, 2017, there were a total of 778 physician groups, of which 465 were blended capitation Family Health Organization (FHOs); 177 FHOs (22.8%) were also interprofessional teams and 288 (37%) were more conventional group practices (“non-interprofessional teams”). In this period, there were a total of 13,480 primary care physicians in Ontario of whom 4848 (36%) were affiliated with FHOs—2311 (17.1%) practicing in interprofessional teams and 2537 (18.8%) practicing in non-interprofessional teams. During that same period, there were 475,611 and 618,363 multi-morbid patients in interprofessional teams and non-interprofessional teams respectively out of a total of 2,920,990 multi-morbid adult patients in Ontario. There was no difference in change over time in ACSC admissions between interprofessional and non-interprofessional teams between the pre- and post intervention periods. There were no statistically significant changes in all cause hospital readmission s between the post- and pre-intervention periods for interprofessional and non-interprofessional teams. Conclusions Our study findings indicate that the introduction of interprofessional team-based primary care was not associated with changes in ACSC hospitalization or hospital readmissions. The findings point for the need to couple interprofessional team-based care with other enablers of a strong primary care system to improve health services utilization efficiency.

Abstract Background A small proportion of the population consumes the majority of health care resources. High-cost health care users are a heterogeneous group. We aim to segment a provincial population into relevant homogenous sub-groups to provide actionable information on risk factors associated with high-cost health care use within sub-populations. Methods The Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) Population Grouping methodology was used to define mutually exclusive and clinically relevant health profile sub-groups. High-cost users (> = 90th percentile of health care spending) were defined within each sub-group. Univariate analyses explored demographic, socio-economic status, health status and health care utilization variables associated with high-cost use. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed for the costliest health profile groups. Results From 2015 to 2017, 1,175,147 individuals were identified for study. High-cost users consumed 41% of total health care resources. Average annual health care spending for individuals not high-cost were $642; high-cost users were $16,316. The costliest health profile groups were ‘long-term care’, ‘palliative’, ‘major acute’, ‘major chronic’, ‘major cancer’, ‘major newborn’, ‘major mental health’ and ‘moderate chronic’. Both ‘major acute’ and ‘major cancer’ health profile groups were largely explained by measures of health care utilization and multi-morbidity. In the remaining costliest health profile groups modelled, ‘major chronic’, ‘moderate chronic’, ‘major newborn’ and ‘other mental health’, a measure of socio-economic status, low neighbourhood income, was statistically significantly associated with high-cost use. Interpretation Model results point to specific, actionable information within clinically meaningful subgroups to reduce high-cost health care use. Health equity, specifically low socio-economic status, was statistically significantly associated with high-cost use in the majority of health profile sub-groups. Population segmentation methods, and more specifically, the CIHI Population Grouping Methodology, provide specificity to high-cost health care use; informing interventions aimed at reducing health care costs and improving population health.

Introduction: Providers, managers, health system leaders, and researchers could learn across countries implementing system-wide models of integrated care, but require accessible methods to do so. This study assesses if a common framework could describe and compare key components of international models of integrated care. Theory and methods: A framework developed for an international study of programs that address high needs high cost patients was used to describe and compare 11 case studies analyzed in two international research projects; the Implementing Integrated Care for Older Adults with Complex Health Needs (iCOACH) study in Canada and New Zealand, and the Vilans research group exploring models in the Netherlands. Comparative summaries were generated, with findings discussed at a 2019 International Conference on Integrated Care workshop. Results: The template was found to be useful to compare integrated case analyses in different contexts, and stands apart from other case comparison approaches as it is easily applied and can provide practical guidance for frontline staff and managers. Areas of improvement for the template are identified and two updated versions are presented. Conclusions and discussion: There is value to using a common template to provide guidance in international comparison of models of integrated care. We discuss the applicability of the approach to support scale and spread of integrated care internationally.

Abstract Background Much of the research on high-cost patients in healthcare has taken a static approach to studying what is actually a dynamic process. High-cost patients often utilize services across multiple sectors along care pathways, but due to the cross-sectional nature of many study designs, we lack a clear understanding of the temporal relationship between high-cost spending in community and acute care. Studying care trajectories for high cost patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) can shed light on the dynamic interplay between community-based and acute care along the care continuum, and provide information about signals in community care that may indicate future elective and urgent hospitalizations. Methods Using linked health administrative data in Ontario, Canada, 74,683 incident cases with cardiovascular disease were identified between the years 2009 and 2011. Patients were followed for 36 months (total study duration 2009–2014) until the first urgent or elective admission to hospital for a heart-related condition. We used an extended Cox survival model with competing risks to study the relationship between high-cost spending in community care with two mutually exclusive outcomes: urgent or elective hospitalizations. Results Elective hospitalizations were most clearly signaled by a high-cost utilization of community-based specialist services in the month prior to hospital admission (hazard ratio 9.074, p

Abstract Background As the population is aging, the number of persons living with multiple chronic conditions (MCC) is expected to increase. This review seeks to answer two research questions from the perspectives of older adults with MCC, their caregivers and their health care providers (HCPs): 1) What are the health and social care needs of community-dwelling older adults with MCC and their caregivers? and 2) How do social and structural determinants of health impact these health and social care needs? Methods We conducted a scoping review guided by a refinement of the Arksey & O’Malley framework. Articles were included if participants were 55 years or older and have at least two chronic conditions. We searched 7 electronic databases. The data were summarized using thematic analysis. Results Thirty-six studies were included in this review: 28 studies included participants with MCC; 12 studies included HCPs; 5 studies included caregivers. The quality of the studies ranged from moderate to good. Five main areas of needs were identified: need for information; coordination of services and supports; preventive, maintenance and restorative strategies; training for older adults, caregivers and HCPs to help manage the older adults’ complex conditions; and the need for person-centred approaches. Structural and social determinants of health such as socioeconomic status, education and access influenced the needs of older adults with MCC. Conclusion The review highlights that most of the needs of older adults with MCC focus on lack of access to information and coordination of care. The main structural and social determinants that influenced older adults’ needs were their level of education/health literacy and their socioeconomic status.

Abstract Background Population-based risk prediction tools exist for individual chronic diseases. From a population health perspective, studying chronic diseases together provides a comprehensive view of the burden of disease in the population. Thus, public health officials and health policymakers would benefit from a prediction tool that measures the incidence of chronic diseases compositely. This study protocol proposes the development and validation of the Chronic Disease Population Risk Tool (CDPoRT) that will predict the incidence of six chronic diseases in the population setting using multivariable modeling techniques. Methods CDPoRT will be built using population-based responses to the first six cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey linked to health administrative data in Ontario and Manitoba from 2000 to 2014. Predictors including modifiable lifestyle risk factors (i.e., alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, diet, and physical activity) will be used to predict time-to-chronic disease incidence (i.e., congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, lung cancer, myocardial infarction, and stroke including transient ischemic heart attack). Sex-specific Royston-Parmar models will be used for model development and validation with death free of chronic disease as a competing risk. CDPoRT will be developed using an Ontario derivation cohort consisting of 47,960 females and 38,267 males with 7035 and 6220 chronic disease events, respectively. The model will be validated using split-sample validation using an Ontario validation cohort consisting of 20,325 females and 16,627 males with 2972 and 2658 chronic disease events, respectively. The model will be externally validated in the Manitoba validation cohort (i.e., geographic validation) expected to consist of 11,800 females and 9700 males with 1650 and 1550 chronic disease events, respectively. Measures of overall predictive accuracy (e.g., Nagelkerke’s R 2), discrimination (e.g., Harrell’s concordance statistic), and calibration (e.g., calibration plots) will be used to assess predictive performance. Discussion To the extent of our knowledge, CDPoRT will be the first population-based regression prediction model that will predict the incidence of multiple chronic diseases simultaneously at the population level.

Abstract Background The identification of contextual factors that modify associations between client frailty and their health and service use outcomes is essential for informed home health care and policy planning. Our objective was to examine variation in the associations between frailty and select 1-year health outcomes by caregiver distress and client sex among community-residing older care recipients. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked population-based clinical and health administrative databases for all long-stay home care clients (n = 234,552) aged 66+ years assessed during April 2010–2013 in Ontario, Canada. Frailty was assessed using a previously validated 72-item frailty index (FI). Presence of caregiver distress was derived from clinical assessment items administered by trained home care assessors. Multivariable log-binomial regression models were used to examine variations in the associations between frailty and outcomes of interest (mortality, nursing home [NH] placement, all-cause and prolonged hospitalization) by caregiver distress, with further model stratification by client sex. Results Frailty prevalence varied little by sex (19.3% women, 19.9% men) despite significant sex-differences in clients’ sociodemographic and health characteristics. In both sexes, frailty was significantly associated with all outcomes, particularly NH placement (RR = 3.84, 95%CI 3.75–3.93) and death (RR = 2.32, 95%CI 2.27–2.37), though risk ratios were greater for women. Caregiver distress was more common with increasing frailty and for male clients, and a significant independent predictor of NH placement and prolonged hospitalization in both sexes. The association between frailty and NH placement (but not other outcomes) varied by caregiver distress for both men and women (p

Abstract Background The burden of multimorbidity is a growing clinical and health system problem that is known to be associated with socioeconomic status, yet our understanding of the underlying determinants of inequalities in multimorbidity and longitudinal trends in measured disparities remains limited. Methods We included all adult respondents from four cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) (between 2005 to 2011/12), linked at the individual-level to health administrative data in Ontario, Canada (pooled n = 113,627). Multimorbidity was defined at each survey response as having ≥2 (of 17) high impact chronic conditions, based on claims data. Using a decomposition method of the Erreygers-corrected concentration index (CErreygers), we measured household income inequality and the contribution of the key determinants of multimorbidity (including socio-demographic, socio-economic, lifestyle and health system factors) to these disparities. Differences over time are described. We tested for statistically significant changes to measured inequality using the slope index (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) with a 2-way interaction on pooled data. Results Multimorbidity prevalence in 2011/12 was 33.5% and the CErreygers was − 0.085 (CI: -0.108 to − 0.062), indicating a greater prevalence among lower income groups. In decomposition analyses, income itself accounted more than two-thirds (69%) of this inequality. Age (21.7%), marital status (15.2%) and physical inactivity (10.9%) followed, and the contribution of these factors increased from baseline (2005 CCHS survey) with the exception of age. Other lifestyle factors, including heavy smoking and obesity, had minimal contribution to measured inequality (1.8 and 0.4% respectively). Tests for trends (SII/RII) across pooled survey data were not statistically significant (p = 0.443 and 0.405, respectively), indicating no change in inequalities in multimorbidity prevalence over the study period. Conclusions A pro-rich income gap in multimorbidity has persisted in Ontario from 2005 to 2011/12. These empirical findings suggest that to advance equality in multimorbidity prevalence, policymakers should target chronic disease prevention and control strategies focused on older adults, non-married persons and those that are physically inactive, in addition to addressing income disparities directly.

Abstract Background Information communication technology (ICT) is a critical enabler of integrated models of community-based primary health care; however, little is known about how existing technologies have been used to support new models of integrated care. To address this gap, we draw on data from an international study of integrated models, exploring how ICT is used to support activities of integrated care and the organizational and environmental barriers and enablers to its adoption. Methods We take an embedded comparative multiple-case study approach using data from a study of implementation of nine models of integrated community-based primary health care, the Implementing Integrated Care for Older Adults with Complex Health Needs (iCOACH) study. Six cases from Canada, three each in Ontario and Quebec, and three in New Zealand, were studied. As part of the case studies, interviews were conducted with managers and front-line health care providers from February 2015 to March 2017. A qualitative descriptive approach was used to code data from 137 interviews and generate word tables to guide analysis. Results Despite different models and contexts, we found strikingly similar accounts of the types of activities supported through ICT systems in each of the cases. ICT systems were used most frequently to support activities like care coordination by inter-professional teams through information sharing. However, providers were limited in their ability to efficiently share patient data due to data access issues across organizational and professional boundaries and due to system functionality limitations, such as a lack of interoperability. Conclusions Even in innovative models of care, managers and providers in our cases mainly use technology to enable traditional ways of working. Technology limitations prevent more innovative uses of technology that could support disruption necessary to improve care delivery. We argue the barriers to more innovative use of technology are linked to three factors: (1) information access barriers, (2) limited functionality of available technology, and (3) organizational and provider inertia.

Abstract Background QUALICOPC is an international survey of primary care performance. QUALICOPC data have been used in several studies, yet the representativeness of the Canadian QUALICOPC survey is unknown, potentially limiting the generalizability of findings. This study examined the representativeness of QUALICOPC physician and patient respondents in Ontario using health administrative data. Methods This representativeness study linked QUALICOPC physician and patient respondents in Ontario to health administrative databases at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences. Physician respondents were compared to other physicians in their practice group and all Ontario primary care physicians on demographic and practice characteristics. Patient respondents were compared to other patients rostered to their primary care physicians, patients rostered to their physicians’ practice groups, and a random sample of Ontario residents on sociodemographic characteristics, morbidity, and health care utilization. Standardized differences were calculated to compare the distribution of characteristics across cohorts. Results QUALICOPC physician respondents included a higher proportion of younger, female physicians and Canadian medical graduates compared to other Ontario primary care physicians. A higher proportion of physician respondents practiced in Family Health Team models, compared to the provincial proportion for primary care physicians. QUALICOPC patient respondents were more likely to be older and female, with significantly higher levels of morbidity and health care utilization, compared with the other patient groups examined. However, when looking at the QUALICOPC physicians’ whole rosters, rather than just the patient survey respondents, the practice profiles were similar to those of the other physicians in their practice groups and Ontario patients in general. Conclusions Comparisons revealed some differences in responding physicians’ demographic and practice characteristics, as well as differences in responding patients’ characteristics compared to the other patient groups tested, which may have resulted from the visit-based sampling strategy. Ontario QUALICOPC physicians had similar practice profiles as compared to non-participating physicians, providing some evidence that the participating practices are representative of other non-participating practices, and patients selected by visit-based sampling may also be representative of visiting patients in other practices. Those using QUALICOPC data should understand this limited representativeness when generalizing results, and consider the potential for bias in their analyses.

Abstract Background Prognostic models incorporating survival analysis predict the risk (i.e., probability) of experiencing a future event over a specific time period. In 2002, Royston and Parmar described a type of flexible parametric survival model called the Royston-Parmar model in Statistics in Medicine, a model which fits a restricted cubic spline to flexibly model the baseline log cumulative hazard on the proportional hazards scale. This feature permits absolute measures of effect (e.g., hazard rates) to be estimated at all time points, an important feature when using the model. The Royston-Parmar model can also incorporate time-dependent effects and be used on different scales (e.g., proportional odds, probit). These features make the Royston-Parmar model attractive for prediction, yet their current uptake for prognostic modeling is unknown. Thus, the objectives were to conduct a scoping review of how the Royston-Parmar model has been applied to prognostic models in health research, to raise awareness of the model, to identify gaps in current reporting, and to offer model building considerations and reporting suggestions for other researchers. Methods Five electronic databases and gray literature indexed in web sources from 2001 to 2016 were searched to identify articles for inclusion in the scoping review. Two reviewers independently screened 1429 articles, and after applying exclusion criteria through a two-step screening process, data from 12 studies were abstracted. Results Since 2001, only 12 studies were identified that used the Royston-Parmar model in some capacity for prognostic modeling, 10 of which used the model as the basis for their prognostic model. The restricted cubic spline varied across studies in the number of interior knots (range 1 to 6), and only three studies reported knot placement. Three studies provided details about the baseline function, with two studies using a figure and the third providing coefficients. However, no studies provided adequate information on their restricted cubic spline to permit others to validate or completely use the model. Conclusions Despite the advantages of the Royston-Parmar model for prognostic models, they are not widely used in health research. Better reporting of details about the restricted cubic spline is needed, so the prognostic model can be used and validated by others. Registration The protocol was registered with Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/r3232/).

Abstract Background Despite the growing interest in assessing the quality of care for depression, there is little evidence to support measurement of the quality of primary care for depression. This study identified evidence-based quality indicators for monitoring, evaluating and improving the quality of care for depression in primary care settings. Methods Ovid MEDLINE and Ovid PsycINFO databases, and grey literature, including relevant organizational websites, were searched from 2000 to 2015. Two reviewers independently selected studies if (1) the study methodology combined a systematic literature search with assessment of quality indicators by an expert panel and (2) quality indicators were applicable to assessment of care for adults with depression in primary care settings. Included studies were appraised using the Appraisal of Indicators through Research and Evaluation (AIRE) instrument, which contains four domains and 20 items. A narrative synthesis was used to combine the indicators within themes. Quality indicators applicable to care for adults with depression in primary care settings were extracted using a structured form. The extracted quality indicators were categorized according to Donabedian’s ‘structure-process-outcome’ framework. Results The search revealed 3838 studies. Four additional publications were identified through grey literature searching. Thirty-nine articles were reviewed in detail and seven met the inclusion criteria. According to the AIRE domains, all studies were clear on purpose and stakeholder involvement, while formal endorsement and usage of indicators in practice were scarcely described. A total of 53 quality indicators were identified from the included studies, many of which overlap conceptually or in content: 15 structure, 33 process and four outcome indicators. This study identified quality indicators for evaluating primary care for depression among adult patients. Conclusions The identified set of indicators address multiple dimensions of depression care and provide an excellent starting point for further development and use in primary care settings.

Introduction: Faced with rising healthcare costs and systemic inefficiencies, the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care (MOHLTC) selected six programs, each a collection of acute/ post-acute care organizations, to implement bundled care across the province of Ontario, Canada in 2015. A single team provided patient care from hospital to home over 60 days while program partners shared funds, hoping that shorter hospital stays would lead to better patient outcomes and cost savings. Focusing on three Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Congestive Heart Failure programs, we examine a) how unique challenges encountered within programs changed over time, and generated ideas and practices and that may help when spreading and scaling similar models and b) how stakeholder visions of sustainability spatially and temporally reimagine integrated care. Methods/ Theory: We conducted 36 interviews, 12 with each program; with the first 18 completed in 2016, and the rest in 2018. Interviews were conducted with program leaders and practitioners across the hospital-community spectrum. Anonymized transcripts were coded and a cultural constructivist framework informed analysis. We were interested in how stakeholders’ location within specific contexts shaped their experience of integration, as well as how these contexts were in turn shaped by stakeholders over time. Results: Stakeholder experiences were informed by program contexts, from program scale to existing cultures of collaboration. Program A experienced the challenges of being the largest in scale differently as the program matured, eventually advocating a local approach to clinician engagement and funding. Program B, facing early financial planning challenges due to uncertain patient volumes, developed a new financial reconciliation process. Program C, faced with the need to overcome early misgivings and work with a specific community partner, suggested developing standardized pathways for community services that mirrored those in acute care. Stakeholders across programs suggested that sustainability could be encouraged by moving the model upstream to preventative primary care, addressing comorbidities and social complexity, eliminating disincentives to integration by rethinking volume-based hospital funding, linking programs to existing health and social resources, and increasing program length to foster continuity. Discussion: Stakeholders’ reconceptualization of integrated models of care emphasized the local and familiar, from relationships to funding models. Stakeholders advocated systemic transformation that wrapped care around the patient both spatially and temporally– by expanding the hospital-community partnership to include primary care and other community-based health and social services, while providing longer-term, ongoing care. It was a reconceptualization of the original focus on seamless transitions from hospital to home in holistic, far-reaching ways. Conclusion/ Lessons Learnt: Spreading and scaling bundled care may be best accomplished by reclaiming the local, allowing individual jurisdictions some autonomy over integrated care implementation. Nevertheless, system-wide transformation is needed to support these myriad forms of integration; from transforming funding structures, enabling comorbidity tracking, and facilitating links to existing health and social resources. Limitations: Sample size is a practical limitation, given that the scale of some bundled care initiatives challenged the incorporation of all partner perspectives. Suggestions for future research: Future research might examine whether perspectives on sustainability differ among stakeholders in non-chronic programs.

Abstract Background Mental illness is a substantial and rising contributor to the global burden of disease. Access to and utilization of mental health care, however, is limited by structural barriers such as specialist availability, time, out-of-pocket costs, and attitudinal barriers including stigma. Innovative solutions like virtual care are rapidly entering the health care domain. The advancement and adoption of virtual care for mental health, however, often occurs in the absence of rigorous evaluation and adequate planning for sustainability and spread. Methods A pragmatic randomized controlled trial with a nested comparative effectiveness arm, and concurrent realist process evaluation to examine acceptability, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of the Big White Wall (BWW) online platform for mental health self-management and peer support among individuals aged 16 and older who are accessing mental health services in Ontario, Canada. Participants will be randomized to 3 months of BWW or treatment as usual. At the end of the 3 months, participants in the intervention group will have the opportunity to opt-in to an intervention extension arm. Those who opt-in will be randomized to receive an additional 3 months of BWW or no additional intervention. The primary outcome is recovery at 3 months as measured by the Recovery Assessment Scale-revised (RAS-r). Secondary outcomes include symptoms of depression and anxiety measured with the Personal Health Questionnaire-9 item (PHQ-9) and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder Questionnaire-7 item (GAD-7) respectively, quality of life measured with the EQ-5D-5L, and community integration assessed with the Community Integration Questionnaire. Cost-effectiveness evaluations will account for the cost of the intervention and direct health care costs. Qualitative interviews with participants and stakeholders will be conducted throughout. Discussion Understanding the impact of virtual strategies, such as BWW, on patient outcomes and experience, and health system costs is essential for informing whether and how health system decision-makers can support these strategies system-wide. This requires clear evidence of effectiveness and an understanding of how the intervention works, for whom, and under what circumstances. This study will produce such effectiveness data for BWW, while simultaneously exploring the characteristics and experiences of users for whom this and similar online interventions could be helpful. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02896894 . Registered on 31 August 2016 (retrospectively registered).

Background: Individuals of low socioeconomic status experience a disproportionate burden of chronic conditions; however it is unclear whether chronic condition burden affects survival differently across socioeconomic strata. Methods: This retrospective cohort study used health administrative data from all residents of Ontario, Canada aged 65 to 105 with at least one of 16 chronic conditions on April 1, 2009 (n = 1,518,939). Chronic condition burden and unadjusted mortality were compared across neighborhood income quintiles. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the effect of number of chronic conditions on two-year survival across income quintiles. Findings: Prevalence of five or more chronic conditions was significantly higher among older adults in the poorest neighborhoods (18.2%) than the wealthiest (14.3%) (Standardized difference > 0·1). There was also a socioeconomic gradient in unadjusted mortality over two years: 10.1% of people in the poorest neighborhoods died compared with 7.6% of people in the wealthiest neighborhoods. In adjusted analyses, having more chronic conditions was associated with a statistically significant increase in hazard of death over two years, however the magnitude of this effect was comparable across income quintiles. Individuals in the poorest neighborhoods with four chronic conditions had 2.07 times higher hazard of death (95% CI: 1.97–2.19) than those with one chronic condition, but this was comparable to the hazard associated with four chronic conditions in the wealthiest neighborhoods (HR: 2.29, 95% CI: 2.16–2.43). Interpretation: Among older adults with universal access to health care, the deleterious effect of increasing chronic condition burden on two-year hazard of death was consistent across neighborhood income quintiles once baseline differences in condition burden were accounted for. This may be partly attributable to equal access to, and utilization of, health care. Alternate explanations for these findings, including study limitations, are also discussed.

Health and social care systems across western developed nations are being challenged to meet the needs of an increasing number of people aging with multiple complex health and social needs. Community based primary health care (CBPHC) has been associated with more equitable access to services, better population level outcomes and lower system level costs. Itmay be well suited to the increasingly complex needs of populations; however the implementation of CBPHC models of care faces many challenges. This paper describes a program of research by an international, multi-university, multidisciplinary research team who are seeking to understand how to scale up and spread models of Integrated CBPHC (ICBPHC). The key question being addressed is “What are the steps to implementing innovative integrated community-based primary health care models that address the health and social needs of older adults with complex care needs?” and will be answered in three phases. In the first phase we identify and describe exemplar models of ICBPHC and their context in relation to relevant policies and performance across the three jurisdictions (New Zealand, Ontario and Québec, Canada). The second phase involves a series of theory-informed, mixed methods case studies from which we shall develop a conceptual framework that captures not only the attributes of successful innovative ICBPHC models, but also how these models are being implemented. In the third phase, we aim to translate our research into practice by identifying emerging models of ICBPHC in advance, and working alongside policymakers to inform the development and implementation of these models in each jurisdiction. The final output of the program will be a comprehensive guide to the design, implementation and scaling-up of innovative models of ICBPHC.

Introduction: Studying implementation of integrated models of community-based primary health care requires a “whole systems” multidisciplinary approach to capture micro, meso and macro factors. However, there is, as yet, no clear operationalization of a “whole systems” approach to guide multidisciplinary research programs. Theoretical frameworks and approaches from diverse academic traditions specify different aspects of the health system in more depth. Enabling analysis across the system, when data and ideas are captured using different taxonomies, requires that we map terms and constructs across the models. Theory and methods: This paper uses concept mapping techniques to compare and contrast the theoretical frameworks and approaches used in the iCOACH project including: Ham’s Ten Characteristics of the High-Performing Chronic Care System (capturing patient/carer and provider perspectives), the Organizational Context and Capabilities for Integrating Care framework (capturing the organizational perspective), and the Health Policy Monitor framework (capturing the policy system perspective). The aim of the paper is to link concepts across different theoretical framework to guide the iCOACH study. Results: A concept map was developed that identifies 8 overarching concepts across the heuristic models. A preliminary analysis of one of these overarching concepts, care coordination, demonstrates how different perspectives will assign different meanings, values, and drivers of seemingly similar ideas. For patients and carers care coordination is about having a responsive team of health care providers. Building relationships in teams that exist within and across different organizations is essential for providers to achieve care coordination, where managers and policy makers see care coordination as being more about creating linkages and addressing systems gaps. Discussion and conclusion: This work represents a first step towards development of a fully formed conceptual framework that includes key domains, concepts, and mechanisms of implementing integrated community-based primary health care.

Introduction: The variable success of integrated care initiatives has led experts to recommend tailoring design and implementation to the organizational context. Yet, organizational contexts are rarely described, understood, or measured with sufficient depth and breadth in empirical studies or in practice. We thus lack knowledge of when and specifically how organizational contexts matter. To facilitate the accumulation of evidence, we developed a research toolkit for conducting case studies using standardized measures of the (inter-)organizational context for integrating care. Theory and Methods: We used a multi-method approach to develop the research toolkit: (1) development and validation of the Context and Capabilities for Integrating Care (CCIC) Framework, (2) identification, assessment, and selection of survey instruments, (3) development of document review methods, (4) development of interview guide resources, and (5) pilot testing of the document review guidelines, consolidated survey, and interview guide. Results: The toolkit provides a framework and measurement tools that examine 18 organizational and inter-organizational factors that affect the implementation and success of integrated care initiatives. Discussion and Conclusion: The toolkit can be used to characterize and compare organizational contexts across cases and enable comparison of results across studies. This information can enhance our understanding of the influence of organizational contexts, support the transfer of best practices, and help explain why some integrated care initiatives succeed and some fail.

Introduction: Many studies have investigated the process of healthcare implementation to understand better how to bridge gaps between recommended practice, the needs and demands of healthcare consumers, and what they actually receive. However, in the implementation of integrated community-based and integrated health care, it is still not well known which approaches work best. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and metanarrative synthesis of literature on implementation frameworks, theories and models in support of a research programme investigating CBPHC for older adults with chronic health problems. Results: Thirty-five reviews met our inclusion criteria and were appraised, summarised, and synthesised. Five metanarratives emerged 1) theoretical constructs; 2) multiple influencing factors; 3) development of new frameworks; 4) application of existing frameworks; and 5) effectiveness of interventions within frameworks/models. Four themes were generated that exposed the contradictions and synergies among the metanarratives. Person-centred care is fundamental to integrated CBPHC at all levels in the health care delivery system, yet many implementation theories and frameworks neglect this cornerstone. Discussion: The research identified perspectives central to integrated CBPHC that were missing in the literature. Context played a key role in determining success and in how consumers and their families, providers, organisations and policy-makers stay connected to implementing the best care possible. Conclusions: All phases of implementation of a new model of CBPHC call for collaborative partnerships with all stakeholders, the most important being the person receiving care in terms of what matters most to them.

The aim of this paper is to set the foundation for subsequent empirical studies of the “Implementing models of primary care for older adults with complex needs” project, by introducing and presenting a brief descriptive comparison of the nine case studies in Quebec, Ontario and New Zealand. Each case is described based on key dimensions of Rainbow model of Valentijn and al (2013) with a focus on “meso level” integration. Meso level integration is represented by organizational and professional elements of the Rainbow Model, which are of particular interest in our nine case studies. Each of the three cases in Ontario and three in New Zealand are different and described separately. In Quebec, a local health services network model is presented across the three cases studied with variations in the way it is implemented. The three cases selected in the three jurisdictions under study were not chosen to be representative of wider practice within each country, but rather represent interesting and unique models of community-based primary healthcare integration. Similarities and variations in the integrated care models, context and dimension of integration offer insights regarding core component of integration of services, offering a foundational understanding of the cases on which future analysis will be based.

Background: Interventions aimed at integrating care have become widespread in healthcare; however, there is significant variability in their success. Differences in organizational contexts and associated capabilities may be responsible for some of this variability. Purpose: This study develops and validates a conceptual framework of organizational capabilities for integrating care, identifies which of these capabilities may be most important, and explores the mechanisms by which they influence integrated care efforts. Methods: The Context and Capabilities for Integrating Care (CCIC) Framework was developed through a literature review, and revised and validated through interviews with leaders and care providers engaged in integrated care networks in Ontario, Canada. Interviews involved open-ended questions and graphic elicitation. Quantitative content analysis was used to summarize the data. Results: The CCIC Framework consists of eighteen organizational factors in three categories: Basic Structures, People and Values, and Key Processes. The three most important capabilities shaping the capacity of organizations to implement integrated care interventions include Leadership Approach, Clinician Engagement and Leadership, and Readiness for Change. The majority of hypothesized relationships among organizational capabilities involved Readiness for Change and Partnering, emphasizing the complexity, interrelatedness and importance of these two factors to integrated care efforts. Conclusions: Organizational leaders can use the framework to determine readiness to integrate care, develop targeted change management strategies, and select appropriate partners with overlapping or complementary profiles on key capabilities. Researchers may use the results to test and refine the proposed framework, with a focus on the hypothesized relationships among organizational capabilities and between organizational capabilities and performance outcomes.

The path to improving healthcare quality for individuals with complex health conditions is complicated by a lack of common understanding of complexity. Modern medicine, together with social and environmental factors, has extended life, leading to a growing population of patients with chronic conditions. In many cases, there are social and psychological factors that impact treatment, health outcomes, and quality of life. This is the face of complexity. Care challenges, burden, and cost have positioned complexity as an important health issue. Complex chronic conditions are now being discussed by clinicians, researchers, and policy-makers around such issues as quantification, payment schemes, transitions, management models, clinical practice, and improved patient experience. We conducted a scoping review of the literature for definitions and descriptions of complexity. We provide an overview of complex chronic conditions, and what is known about complexity, and describe variations in how it is understood. We developed a Complexity Framework from these findings to guide our approach to understanding patient complexity. It is critical to use common vernacular and conceptualization of complexity to improve service and outcomes for patients with complex chronic conditions. Many questions still persist about how to develop this work with a health and social care lens; our framework offers a foundation to structure thinking about complex patients. Further insight into patient complexity can inform treatment models and goals of care, and identify required services and barriers to the management of complexity.

In July 1998, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) changed the payment method for Medicare (Part A) skilled nursing facility (SNF) care from a cost-based system to a prospective payment system (PPS). Unlike the previous cost-based payment system, PPS restricts skilled nursing facility payment to pre-determined levels. CMS also reduced the total payments to SNFs coincident with PPS implementation. These changes might reduce quality of care at skilled nursing facilities and could be reflected in resident discharge patterns. The present study examines the effect of the 1998 policy change on resident discharge outcomes. The results indicate that PPS reduced the relative risk of discharge to home and to death for Medicare residents (compared to non-Medicare residents) and had no significant effect on hospitalizations or transfers.

RationaleA common strategy to reduce COPD readmissions is to encourage patient follow-up with a physician within 1 to 2 weeks of discharge, yet evidence confirming its benefit is lacking. We used a new study design called target randomized trial emulation to determine the impact of follow-up visit timing on patient outcomes.MethodsAll Ontario residents aged 35 or older discharged from a COPD hospitalization were identified using health administrative data and randomly assigned to those who received and did not receive physician visit follow-up by within seven days. They were followed to all-cause emergency department visits, readmissions or death. Targeted randomized trial emulation was used to adjust for differences between the groups. COPD emergency department visits, readmissions or death was also considered.ResultsThere were 94,034 patients hospitalized with COPD, of whom 73.5% had a physician visit within 30 days of discharge. Adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause readmission, emergency department visits or death for people with a visit within seven days post discharge was 1.03 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.01-1.05) and remained around 1 for subsequent days; adjusted hazard ratio for the composite COPD events was 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-1.00) and remained significantly lower than 1 for subsequent days.ConclusionWhile a physician visit after discharge was found to reduce COPD events, a specific time period when a physician visit was most beneficial was not found. This suggests that follow-up visits should not occur at a predetermined time but be based on factors such as anticipated medical need.

Objectives The pandemic and public health response to contain the virus had impacts on many aspects of young people’s lives including disruptions to daily routines, opportunities for social, academic, recreational engagement and early employment. Consequently, children, adolescents and young adults may have experienced mental health challenges that required use of mental health services. This study compared rates of use for inpatient and outpatient mental health services during the pandemic to pre-pandemic rates.Design Population-based repeated cross-sectional study.Setting Publicly delivered mental healthcare in primary and secondary settings within the province of Ontario, Canada.Participants All children 6–12 years of age (n=2 043 977), adolescents 13–17 years (n=1 708 754) and young adults 18–24 years (n=2 286 544), living in Ontario and eligible for provincial health insurance between March 2016 and November 2021.Primary outcome measures Outpatient mental health visits to family physicians and psychiatrists for: mood and anxiety disorders, alcohol and substance abuse disorders, other non-psychotic mental health disorders and social problems. Inpatient mental health visits to emergency departments and hospitalisations for: substance-related and addictive disorders, anxiety disorders, assault-related injuries, deliberate self-harm and eating disorders. All outcomes were analysed by cohort and sex.Results During the pandemic, observed outpatient visit rates were higher among young adults by 19.01% (95% CI: 15.56% to 22.37%; 209 vs 175 per 1000) and adolescent women 24.17% (95% CI: 18.93% to 29.15%; 131 vs 105 per 1000) for mood and anxiety disorders and remained higher than expected. Female adolescents had higher than expected usage of inpatient care for deliberate self-harm, eating disorders and assault-related injuries.Conclusions Study results raise concerns over prolonged high rates of mental health use during the pandemic, particularly in female adolescents and young women, and highlights the need to better monitor and identify mental health outcomes associated with COVID-19 containment measures and to develop policies to address these concerns.

Abstract Background Patient engagement (PE) in hospital planning and improvement is widespread, yet we lack evidence of its impact. We aimed to identify benefits and harms that could be used to assess the impact of hospital PE. Methods We interviewed hospital-affiliated persons involved in PE activities using a qualitative descriptive approach and inductive content analysis to derive themes. We interpreted themes by mapping to an existing framework of healthcare performance measures and reported themes with exemplar quotes. Results Participants included 38 patient/family advisors, PE managers and clinicians from 9 hospitals (2

Objectives This study sought to understand how stakeholder engagement impacts outcomes when there is a change in public funding within community mental health settings.Design A realist synthesis approach was used to address the research question to fully understand the role of stakeholder engagement as a mechanism in achieving outcomes (system and service user) in the context of community mental health service reform. An iterative process was used to identify programme theories and context–mechanism–outcome configurations within the literature.Results Findings highlight that in the absence of stakeholder engagement, funding changes may lead to negative outcomes. When stakeholders were engaged in some form, funding changes were more often associated with positive outcomes. Stakeholder engagement is multifaceted and requires considerable time and investment to support achieving intended outcomes when funding changes are implemented.Conclusions To support successful transformation of community mental health programmes, it is important that stakeholders are meaningfully engaged during funding allocation changes. Stakeholder engagement may entail connecting around a shared purpose, individual participation and meaningful interactions and dialogue.

Objectives To determine whether a voluntary referral-based interprofessional team-based primary care programme reached its target population and to assess the representativeness of referring primary care physicians.Design Cross-sectional analysis of administrative health data.Setting Ontario, Canada.Intervention TeamCare provides access to Community Health Centre services for patients of non-team physicians with complex health and social needs.Participants All adult patients who participated in TeamCare between 1 April 2015 and 31 March 2017 (n=1148), and as comparators, all non-referred adult patients of the primary care providers who shared patients in TeamCare (n=546 989), and a 1% random sample of the adult Ontario population (n=117 753).Results TeamCare patients were more likely to live in lower income neighbourhoods with a higher degree of marginalisation relative to comparison groups. TeamCare patients had a higher mean number of diagnoses, higher prevalence of all chronic conditions and had more frequent encounters with the healthcare system in the year prior to participation.Conclusions TeamCare reached a target population and fills an important gap in the Ontario primary care landscape, serving a population of patients with complex needs that did not previously have access to interprofessional team-based care.Strengths and limitations This study used population-level administrative health data. Data constraints limited the ability to identify patients referred to the programme but did not receive services, and data could not capture all relevant patient characteristics.

Objective Patient and family engagement (PE) in health service planning and improvement is widely advocated, yet little prior research offered guidance on how to optimise PE, particularly in hospitals. This study aimed to engage stakeholders in generating evidence-informed consensus on recommendations to optimise PE.Design We transformed PE processes and resources from prior research into recommendations that populated an online Delphi survey.Setting and participants Panellists included 58 persons with PE experience including: 22 patient/family advisors and 36 others (PE managers, clinicians, executives and researchers) in round 1 (100%) and 55 in round 2 (95%).Outcome measures Ratings of importance on a seven-point Likert scale of 48 strategies organised in domains: engagement approaches, strategies to integrate diverse perspectives, facilitators, strategies to champion engagement and hospital capacity for engagement.Results Of 50 recommendations, 80% or more of panellists prioritised 32 recommendations (27 in round 1, 5 in round 2) across 5 domains: 5 engagement approaches, 4 strategies to identify and integrate diverse patient/family advisor perspectives, 9 strategies to enable meaningful engagement, 9 strategies by which hospitals can champion PE and 5 elements of hospital capacity considered essential for supporting PE. There was high congruence in rating between patient/family advisors and healthcare professionals for all but six recommendations that were highly rated by patient/family advisors but not by others: capturing diverse perspectives, including a critical volume of advisors on committees/teams, prospectively monitoring PE, advocating for government funding of PE, including PE in healthcare worker job descriptions and sharing PE strategies across hospitals.Conclusions Decision-makers (eg, health system policy-makers, hospitals executives and managers) can use these recommendations as a framework by which to plan and operationalise PE, or evaluate and improve PE in their own settings. Ongoing research is needed to monitor the uptake and impact of these recommendations on PE policy and practice.

Short Term Case Management (STCM) was introduced in 2016 in Toronto, Ontario, as a brief intervention to address long wait-lists for case management services. STCM provides individuals with mental illness, living in the community, case management services on a weekly basis over 3 months to identify personal goals and work toward an improved state of health and well-being. Despite the small but growing body of evidence on short-term case management, there is limited research on clients’ reported experiences of these services. This study used a phenomenological approach to answer the question “What are the experiences with services of individuals who received short-term case management services?” Eight qualitative semistructured interviews were conducted between November 2019 and January 2020 to collect the perspectives and experiences of clients who had received STCM. Most participants valued engaging in a brief therapeutic relationship. Additionally, participants described that the intervention helped them connect with other agencies for ongoing support and begin achieving their own long-term goals. Some participants voiced concerns about the brief duration of the intervention. Future research should explore the role of briefcase management in the continuum of services and the typology of clients who may benefit from longer therapeutic relationship to achieve their goals.

BackgroundeHealth technologies for self-management can improve quality of life, but little is known about whether the benefits gained outweigh their costs. The electronic patient-reported outcome (ePRO) mobile app and portal system supports patients with multiple chronic conditions to collaborate with primary health care providers to set and monitor health-related goals. ObjectiveThis study aims to estimate the cost of ePRO and the cost utility of the ePRO intervention compared with usual care provided to patients with multiple chronic conditions and complex needs living in the community, from the perspective of the publicly funded health care payer in Ontario, Canada. MethodsWe developed a decision tree model to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained for the ePRO tool versus usual care over a time horizon of 15 months. Resource utilization and effectiveness of the ePRO tool were drawn from a randomized clinical trial with 6 family health teams involving 45 participants. Unit costs associated with health care utilization (adjusted to 2020 Canadian dollars) were drawn from literature and publicly available sources. A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the findings. ResultsThe total cost of the ePRO tool was CAD $79,467 (~US $ 63,581; CAD $1733 [~US $1386] per person). Compared with standard care, the ePRO intervention was associated with higher costs (CAD $1710 [~US $1368]) and fewer QALYs (–0.03). The findings were consistent with the clinical evidence, suggesting no statistical difference in health-related quality of life between ePRO and usual care groups. However, the tool would be considered a cost-effective option if it could improve by at least 0.03 QALYs. The probability that the ePRO is cost-effective was 17.3% at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of CAD $50,000 (~US $40,000)/QALY. ConclusionsThe ePRO tool is not a cost-effective technology at the commonly used WTP value of CAD $50,000 (~US $40,000)/QALY, but long-term and the societal impacts of ePRO were not included in this analysis. Further research is needed to better understand its impact on long-term outcomes and in real-world settings. The present findings add to the growing evidence about eHealth interventions’ capacity to respond to complex aging populations within finite-resourced health systems. Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT02917954; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02917954

BackgroundMultiple conditions are more prevalent in some minoritised ethnic groups and are associated with higher mortality rate but studies examining differential mortality once conditions are established is US-based. Our study tested whether the association between multiple conditions and mortality varies across ethnic groups in England.Methods and findingsA random sample of primary care patients from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) was followed from 1st January 2015 until 31st December 2019. Ethnicity, usually self-ascribed, was obtained from primary care records if present or from hospital records. Long-term conditions were counted from a list of 32 that have previously been associated with greater primary care, hospital admissions, or mortality risk. Cox regression models were used to estimate mortality by count of conditions, ethnicity and their interaction, with adjustment for age and sex for 532,059 patients with complete data. During five years of follow-up, 5.9% of patients died. Each additional condition at baseline was associated with increased mortality. The direction of the interaction of number of conditions with ethnicity showed a statistically higher mortality rate associated with long-term conditions in Pakistani, Black African, Black Caribbean and Other Black ethnic groups. In ethnicity-stratified models, the mortality rate per additional condition at age 50 was 1.33 (95% CI 1.31,1.35) for White ethnicity, 1.43 (95% CI 1.26,1.61) for Black Caribbean ethnicity and 1.78 (95% CI 1.41,2.24) for Other Black ethnicity.ConclusionsThe higher mortality rate associated with having multiple conditions is greater in minoritised compared with White ethnic groups. Research is now needed to identify factors that contribute to these inequalities. Within the health care setting, there may be opportunities to target clinical and self-management support for people with multiple conditions from minoritised ethnic groups.