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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.

A purposely built deep learning algorithm for the Verification of Earth System ParametERization (VESPER) is used to assess recent upgrades to the global physiographic datasets underpinning the quality of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which is used in both numerical weather prediction and climate reanalyses. A neural network regression model is trained to learn the mapping between the surface physiographic dataset, plus the main meteorologic fields from ERA5, and the MODIS satellite skin temperature observations. Once trained, this tool is applied to rapidly assess the quality of upgrades to the physiographic fields used by land surface schemes. Upgrades which improve the prediction accuracy of the machine learning tool indicate a reduction in the errors in the surface fields used as input to the surface parameterization schemes. Conversely, incorrect specifications of the surface fields decrease the accuracy with which VESPER can make predictions. We apply VESPER to assess the accuracy of recent upgrades to the permanent lake and glacier covers, as well as of planned upgrades to represent seasonally varying water bodies (i.e. ephemeral lakes). We show that, for grid cells where the lake fields have been updated, the prediction accuracy of VESPER in the land surface temperature (as quantified by the mean absolute error) improves by 0.37 K on average, whilst for the subset of points where the lakes have been completely removed and replaced with bare ground, the improvement is 0.83 K. We also show that updates to the glacier cover improve the prediction accuracy by 0.22 K. We highlight how neural networks such as VESPER can assist the research and development of surface parameterizations and their input physiography to better represent Earth’s surface coupled processes in weather and climate models.

The Met Office operational wave forecasting modelling system runs four times a day to provide global and regional forecasts up to 7 d ahead. The underpinning model uses a recent development branch of the third-generation spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III® (version 7.12) that includes several updates developed at the Met Office. These include the spherical multiple-cell (SMC) grid, a rotated pole grid formulation for mid-latitudes, enhancements to OASIS coupling and updates to the netCDF postprocessing. Here we document the technical details behind the system with a view to further developments. The operational system includes a global forecast deterministic model (GS512L4EUK) and two regional models nested one-way covering the Northwest (NW) European shelf and UK waters (AMM15SL2, where AMM is for Atlantic Margin model) in addition to an Atlantic wave ensemble (AS512L4EUK). GS512L4EUK and AS512L4EUK are based on a multi-resolution four-tier SMC 25-12-6-3 km grid. The regional AMM15SL2 configuration uses a two-tier SMC 3−1.5 km grid and is run operationally both as a standalone forced model (includes wave–current interactions) and as the wave component of a two-way ocean–wave coupled operational system. Model evaluation is focused on the global and regional baseline configurations. Results show evidence of resolution-dependent differences in wave growth, leading to slightly overestimated significant wave heights in coastal mid-range conditions by AMM15SL2 but an improved representation of extremes compared to GS512L4EUK. Additionally, although a positive impact of the surface currents is not always shown in the overall statistics of the significant wave height due to a larger spread in the observation–model differences, wave–current effects help to better capture the distribution of the energy in terms of frequency and direction near the coast (>20 % improvement), which has implications to beach safety, coastal overtopping risk and shoreline evolution. Future system developments such as the use of sea point wind forcing, the optimisation of the models in line with model resolution and the utilisation of SMC multi-grids are discussed.

Stochastic forcing can, sometimes, stabilise atmospheric regime dynamics, increasing their persistence. This counter-intuitive effect has been observed in geophysical models of varying complexity, and here we investigate the mechanisms underlying stochastic regime dynamics in a conceptual model. We use a six-mode truncation of a barotropic β-plane model, featuring transitions between analogues of zonal and blocked flow conditions, and identify mechanisms similar to those seen previously in work on low-dimensional random maps. Namely, we show that a geometric mechanism, here relating to monotonic instability growth, allows for asymmetric action of symmetric perturbations on regime lifetime and that random scattering can “trap” the flow in more stable regions of phase space. We comment on the implications for understanding more complex atmospheric systems.

Operational ocean forecasts are typically produced by modelling systems run using a forced mode approach. The evolution of the ocean state is not directly influenced by surface waves, and the ocean dynamics are driven by an external source of meteorological data which are independent of the ocean state. Model coupling provides one approach to increase the extent to which ocean forecast systems can represent the interactions and feedbacks between ocean, waves, and the atmosphere seen in nature. This paper demonstrates the impact of improving how the effect of waves on the momentum exchange across the ocean–atmosphere interface is represented through ocean–wave coupling on the performance of an operational regional ocean prediction system. This study focuses on the eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) Atlantic Margin Model (AMM15) ocean model configuration for the north-west European Shelf (NWS) region. A series of 2-year duration forecast trials of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) north-west European Shelf regional ocean prediction system are analysed. The impact of including ocean–wave feedbacks via dynamic coupling on the simulated ocean is discussed. The main interactions included are the modification of surface stress by wave growth and dissipation, Stokes–Coriolis forcing, and wave-height-dependent ocean surface roughness. Given the relevance to operational forecasting, trials with and without ocean data assimilation are considered. Summary forecast metrics demonstrate that the ocean–wave coupled system is a viable evolution for future operational implementation. When results are considered in more depth, wave coupling was found to result in an annual cycle of relatively warmer winter and cooler summer sea surface temperatures for seasonally stratified regions of the NWS. This is driven by enhanced mixing due to waves, and a deepening of the ocean mixed layer during summer. The impact of wave coupling is shown to be reduced within the mixed layer with assimilation of ocean observations. Evaluation of salinity and ocean currents against profile measurements in the German Bight demonstrates improved simulation with wave coupling relative to control simulations. Further, evidence is provided of improvement to simulation of extremes of sea surface height anomalies relative to coastal tide gauges.

This paper describes an updated configuration of the regional coupled research system, termed UKC3, developed and evaluated under the UK Environmental Prediction collaboration. This represents a further step towards a vision of simulating the numerous interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land using more integrated regional coupled prediction systems at kilometre-scale resolution. The UKC3 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean surface waves (WAVEWATCH III®), coupled together using OASIS3-MCT libraries. The major update introduced since the UKC2 configuration is an explicit representation of wave–ocean feedbacks through introduction of wave-to-ocean coupling. Ocean model results demonstrate that wave coupling, in particular representing the wave-modified surface drag, has a small but positive improvement on the agreement between simulated sea surface temperatures and in situ observations, relative to simulations without wave feedbacks. Other incremental developments to the coupled modelling capability introduced since the UKC2 configuration are also detailed. Coupled regional prediction systems are of interest for applications across a range of timescales, from hours to decades ahead. The first results from four simulation experiments, each of the order of 1 month in duration, are analysed and discussed in the context of characterizing the potential benefits of coupled prediction on forecast skill. Results across atmosphere, ocean and wave components are shown to be stable over time periods of weeks. The coupled approach shows notable improvements in surface temperature, wave state (in near-coastal regions) and wind speed over the sea, whereas the prediction quality of other quantities shows no significant improvement or degradation relative to the equivalent uncoupled control simulations.

It is hypothesized that more accurate prediction and warning of natural hazards, such as of the impacts of severe weather mediated through various components of the environment, require a more integrated Earth System approach to forecasting. This hypothesis can be explored using regional coupled prediction systems, in which the known interactions and feedbacks between different physical and biogeochemical components of the environment across sky, sea and land can be simulated. Such systems are becoming increasingly common research tools. This paper describes the development of the UKC2 regional coupled research system, which has been delivered under the UK Environmental Prediction Prototype project. This provides the first implementation of an atmosphere–land–ocean–wave modelling system focussed on the United Kingdom and surrounding seas at km-scale resolution. The UKC2 coupled system incorporates models of the atmosphere (Met Office Unified Model), land surface with river routing (JULES), shelf-sea ocean (NEMO) and ocean waves (WAVEWATCH III). These components are coupled, via OASIS3-MCT libraries, at unprecedentedly high resolution across the UK within a north-western European regional domain. A research framework has been established to explore the representation of feedback processes in coupled and uncoupled modes, providing a new research tool for UK environmental science. This paper documents the technical design and implementation of UKC2, along with the associated evaluation framework. An analysis of new results comparing the output of the coupled UKC2 system with relevant forced control simulations for six contrasting case studies of 5-day duration is presented. Results demonstrate that performance can be achieved with the UKC2 system that is at least comparable to its component control simulations. For some cases, improvements in air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period highlight the potential benefits of coupling between environmental model components. Results also illustrate that the coupling itself is not sufficient to address all known model issues. Priorities for future development of the UK Environmental Prediction framework and component systems are discussed.

The question of violence in John’s Apocalypse is a perennial issue producing numerous treatments with a variety of solutions. Nevertheless, very few of the many treatments seriously engage the combat myths of the ANE and how they may relate to the issue of violence in the Apocalypse. This lack of engagement is surprising given that the Apocalypse seems to draw from the plot elements, characters, and overarching concerns common to combat myths. This essay aims to rectify this by situating the Apocalypse within the combat myth tradition. When one does this, I argue that John’s use of the mythic pattern furnished by combat myths renders the violence of the Apocalypse intelligible while at the same time undermining the violent imagery with strategic departures and alterations.

Proprotein convertase subtilisin kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibits the clearance of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol (LDL-C) from plasma by directly binding with the LDL receptor (LDLR) and sending the receptor for lysosomal degradation. As the interaction promotes elevated plasma LDL-C levels, and therefore a predisposition to cardiovascular disease, PCSK9 has attracted intense interest as a therapeutic target. Despite this interest, an orally bioavailable small-molecule inhibitor of PCSK9 with extensive lipid-lowering activity is yet to enter the clinic. We report herein the discovery of NYX-PCSK9i, an orally bioavailable small-molecule inhibitor of PCSK9 with significant cholesterol-lowering activity in hyperlipidemic APOE∗3-Leiden.CETP mice. NYX-PCSK9i emerged from a medicinal chemistry campaign demonstrating potent disruption of the PCSK9-LDLR interaction in vitro and functional protection of the LDLR of human lymphocytes from PCSK9-directed degradation ex vivo. APOE∗3-Leiden.CETP mice orally treated with NYX-PCSK9i demonstrated a dose-dependent decrease in plasma total cholesterol of up to 57%, while its combination with atorvastatin additively suppressed plasma total cholesterol levels. Importantly, the majority of cholesterol lowering by NYX-PCSK9i was in non-HDL fractions. A concomitant increase in total plasma PCSK9 levels and significant increase in hepatic LDLR protein expression strongly indicated on-target function by NYX-PCSK9i. Determinations of hepatic lipid and fecal cholesterol content demonstrated depletion of liver cholesteryl esters and promotion of fecal cholesterol elimination with NYX-PCSK9i treatment. All measured in vivo biomarkers of health indicate that NYX-PCSK9i has a good safety profile. NYX-PCSK9i is a potential new therapy for hypercholesterolemia with the capacity to further enhance the lipid-lowering activities of statins.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to characterize the descriptive epidemiology of insomnia in midlife and explore the relative importance of different occupational risk factors for insomnia among older workers. METHODS: A questionnaire was mailed to all adults aged 50–64 years registered with 24 English general practices. Insomnia was defined as having at least one of four problems with sleep severely in the past three months. Subjects were also asked about employment conditions, feelings concerning work, and their health. Associations were assessed by logistic regression and population attributable fractions (PAF) calculated. RESULTS: Analysis was based on 8067 respondents (5470 in paid work), 18.8% of whom reported insomnia. It was more common among women, smokers, obese individuals, those living alone, and those in financial hardship, and less prevalent among the educated, those in South-East England, and those with friendships and leisure-time pursuits. Occupational risk factors included unemployment, shift working, lack of control and support at work, job insecurity, job dissatisfaction and several of its determinants (lacking a sense of achievement, feeling unappreciated, having difficult work colleagues, feeling unfairly criticized). Population burden of insomnia was associated more strongly with difficulties in coping with work demands, job insecurity, difficult colleagues, and lack of friendships at work [population attributable fraction (PAF) 15–33%] than shift work and lack of autonomy or support (PAF 5–7%). It was strongly associated with seven measures of poorer self-assessed health. CONCLUSIONS: Employment policies aimed at tackling insomnia among older workers may benefit from focusing particularly on job–person fit, job security and relationships in the workplace.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have indicated that shift work, long working hours, and prevalent workplace exposures such as lifting, standing, and physical workload increase the risk of miscarriage, but the evidence is conflicting. We conducted a systematic review of original research reports. METHODS: A search in Medline and EMBASE 1966–2012 identified 30 primary papers reporting the relative risk (RR) of miscarriage according to ≥1 of 5 occupational activities of interest. Following an assessment of completeness of reporting, confounding, and bias, each risk estimate was characterized as more or less likely to be biased. Studies with equivalent measures of exposure were pooled to obtain a weighted common risk estimate. Sensitivity analyses excluded studies most likely to be biased. RESULTS: Working fixed nights was associated with a moderately increased risk of miscarriage (pooled RR 1.51 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.27–1.78, N=5), while working in 3-shift schedules, working for 40–52 hours weekly, lifting >100 kg/day, standing >6–8 hours/day and physical workload were associated with small risk increments, with the pooled RR ranging from 1.12 (3-shift schedule, N=7) to 1.36 (working hours, N=10). RR for working hours and standing became smaller when analyses were restricted to higher quality studies. CONCLUSIONS: These largely reassuring findings do not provide a strong case for mandatory restrictions in relation to shift work, long working hours, occupational lifting, standing, and physical workload. Considering the limited evidence base, however, it may be prudent to advise women against work entailing high levels of these exposures and women with at-risk pregnancies should receive tailored individual counseling.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to investigate whether whole-body vibration (WBV) is associated with prolapsed lumbar intervertebral disc (PID) and nerve root entrapment among patients with low-back pain (LBP) undergoing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). METHODS: A consecutive series of patients referred for lumbar MRI because of LBP were compared with controls X-rayed for other reasons. Subjects were questioned about occupational activities loading the spine, psychosocial factors, driving, personal characteristics, mental health, and certain beliefs about LBP. Exposure to WBV was assessed by six measures, including weekly duration of professional driving, hours driven at a spell, and current 8-hour daily equivalent root-mean-square acceleration A(8). Cases were sub-classified according to whether or not PID/nerve root entrapment was present. Associations with WBV were examined separately for cases with and without these MRI findings, with adjustment for age, sex, and other potential confounders. RESULTS: Altogether 237 cases and 820 controls were studied, including 183 professional drivers and 176 cases with PID and/or nerve root entrapment. Risks associated with WBV tended to be lower for LBP with PID/nerve root entrapment but somewhat higher for risks of LBP without these abnormalities. However, associations with the six metrics of exposure were all weak and not statistically significant. Neither exposure–response relationships nor increased risk of PID/nerve root entrapment from professional driving or exposure at an A(8) above the European Union daily exposure action level were found. CONCLUSIONS: WBV may be a cause of LBP but it was not associated with PID or nerve root entrapment in this study.

Today’s knowledge-based, global commerce requires continuous investment in human capital through postsecondary education for countries to be fiercely competitive. Countries, such as China and India, are experiencing growth in the number of people participating in postsecondary education; the United States has fallen behind. While America needs to focus on increasing college access and degree completion among underrepresented ethnic minorities, particularly in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM), educators and policymakers assert that this is particularly important for African American males. Increasing matriculation and graduation rates for African Americans is not only a matter of equity, but in the context of STEM, it has major implications for the competitiveness of the United States in the global economy. This article identifies strategies that educators and policymakers can employ to promote the participation of African American males in college in general, particularly in STEM.

BackgroundThe CUPID (Cultural and Psychosocial Influences on Disability) study was established to explore the hypothesis that common musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and associated disability are importantly influenced by culturally determined health beliefs and expectations. This paper describes the methods of data collection and various characteristics of the study sample.Methods/principal findingsA standardised questionnaire covering musculoskeletal symptoms, disability and potential risk factors, was used to collect information from 47 samples of nurses, office workers, and other (mostly manual) workers in 18 countries from six continents. In addition, local investigators provided data on economic aspects of employment for each occupational group. Participation exceeded 80% in 33 of the 47 occupational groups, and after pre-specified exclusions, analysis was based on 12,426 subjects (92 to 1018 per occupational group). As expected, there was high usage of computer keyboards by office workers, while nurses had the highest prevalence of heavy manual lifting in all but one country. There was substantial heterogeneity between occupational groups in economic and psychosocial aspects of work; three- to five-fold variation in awareness of someone outside work with musculoskeletal pain; and more than ten-fold variation in the prevalence of adverse health beliefs about back and arm pain, and in awareness of terms such as "repetitive strain injury" (RSI).Conclusions/significanceThe large differences in psychosocial risk factors (including knowledge and beliefs about MSDs) between occupational groups should allow the study hypothesis to be addressed effectively.

Despite a commitment to non-racialism in the South African Constitution and anthropology’s steadfast position that race is a social construction, race is still a highly valued ideology with real-life implications for citizens. In South Africa, racialism particularly affects heterogeneous, multigenerational, multiethnic creole people known as “Coloureds.” The larger category of Coloured is often essentialized based on its intermediary status between Black and White and its relationship to South Africa’s “mother city” (Cape Town, where the majority of Coloured people live). Through research on Coloured identity in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, I show how the nuances of personal and collective histories, spatial constraints, and education affect the identities of youth and elders differently from their Cape counterparts. By incorporating a photo-voice methodology, which I called Photo Ethnography Project (PEP), participants produced their own visual materials and challenged essentialized versions of themselves (specifically) and South Africa (in general). Through three public displays of photography and narratives, youth in three communities answered the question of what it means to be Coloured in today’s rainbow nation.

Electricity generation output forecasts for wind farms across Europe use numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These forecasts influence decisions in the energy market, some of which help determine daily energy prices or the usage of thermal power generation plants. The predictive skill of power generation forecasts has an impact on the profitability of energy trading strategies and the ability to decrease carbon emissions. Probabilistic ensemble forecasts contain valuable information about the uncertainties in a forecast. The energy market typically takes basic approaches to using ensemble data to obtain more skilful forecasts. There is, however, evidence that more sophisticated approaches could yield significant further improvements in forecast skill and utility. In this letter, the application of ensemble forecasting methods to the aggregated electricity generation output for wind farms across Germany is investigated using historical ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). Multiple methods for producing a single forecast from the ensemble are tried and tested against traditional deterministic methods. All the methods exhibit positive skill, relative to a climatological forecast, out to a lead time of at least seven days. A wind energy trading strategy involving ensemble data is implemented and produces significantly more profit than trading strategies based on single forecasts. It is thus found that ensemble spread is a good predictor for wind electricity generation output forecast uncertainty and is extremely valuable at informing wind energy trading strategy.

Somatising tendency, defined as a predisposition to worry about common somatic symptoms, is importantly associated with various aspects of health and health-related behaviour, including musculoskeletal pain and associated disability. To explore its epidemiological characteristics, and how it can be specified most efficiently, we analysed data from an international longitudinal study. A baseline questionnaire, which included questions from the Brief Symptom Inventory about seven common symptoms, was completed by 12,072 participants aged 20-59 from 46 occupational groups in 18 countries (response rate 70%). The seven symptoms were all mutually associated (odds ratios for pairwise associations 3.4 to 9.3), and each contributed to a measure of somatising tendency that exhibited an exposure-response relationship both with multi-site pain (prevalence rate ratios up to six), and also with sickness absence for non-musculoskeletal reasons. In most participants, the level of somatising tendency was little changed when reassessed after a mean interval of 14 months (75% having a change of 0 or 1 in their symptom count), although the specific symptoms reported at follow-up often differed from those at baseline. Somatising tendency was more common in women than men, especially at older ages, and varied markedly across the 46 occupational groups studied, with higher rates in South and Central America. It was weakly associated with smoking, but not with level of education. Our study supports the use of questions from the Brief Symptom Inventory as a method for measuring somatising tendency, and suggests that in adults of working age, it is a fairly stable trait.