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Abstract Background Despite the growing evidence base supporting intensive lifestyle and medical treatments for severe obesity, patient engagement in specialist obesity services is difficult to achieve and poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we aimed to develop a model for predicting non-completion of a specialist multidisciplinary service for clinically severe obesity, termed the Metabolic Rehabilitation Programme (MRP). Method Using a case-control study design in a public hospital setting, we extracted data from medical records for all eligible patients with a body mass index (BMI) of ≥35 kg/m2 with either type 2 diabetes or fatty liver disease referred to the MRP from 2010 through 2015. Non-completion status (case definition) was coded for patients whom started but dropped-out of the MRP within 12 months. Using multivariable logistic regression, we tested the following baseline predictors hypothesised in previous research: age, gender, BMI, waist circumference, residential distance from the clinic, blood pressure, obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA), current continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy, current depression/anxiety, diabetes status, and medications. We used receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve to test the performance of models. Results Out of the 219 eligible patient records, 78 (35.6%) non-completion cases were identified. Significant differences between non-completers versus completers were: age (47.1 versus 54.5 years, p