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Abstract To save saltmarshes and their valuable ecosystem services from sea level rise, it is crucial to understand their natural ability to gain elevation by sediment accretion. In that context, a widely accepted paradigm is that dense vegetation favors sediment accretion and hence saltmarsh resilience to sea level rise. Here, however, we reveal how dense vegetation can inhibit sediment accretion on saltmarsh platforms. Using a process‐based modeling approach to simulate biogeomorphic development of typical saltmarsh landscapes, we identify two key mechanisms by which vegetation hinders sediment transport from tidal channels toward saltmarsh interiors. First, vegetation concentrates tidal flow and sediment transport inside channels, reducing sediment supply to platforms. Second, vegetation enhances sediment deposition near channels, limiting sediment availability for platform interiors. Our findings suggest that the resilience of saltmarshes to sea level rise may be more limited than previously thought.

Abstract Channel networks are key to coastal wetland functioning and resilience under climate change. Vegetation affects sediment and hydrodynamics in many different ways, which calls for a coherent framework to explain how vegetation shapes channel network geometry and functioning. Here, we introduce an idealized model that shows how coastal wetland vegetation creates more complexly branching networks by increasing the ratio of channel incision versus topographic diffusion rates, thereby amplifying the channelization feedback that recursively incises finer-scale side-channels. This complexification trend qualitatively agrees with and provides an explanation for field data presented here as well as in earlier studies. Moreover, our model demonstrates that a stronger biogeomorphic feedback leads to higher and more densely vegetated marsh platforms and more extensive drainage networks. These findings may inspire future field research by raising the hypothesis that vegetation-induced self-organization enhances the storm surge buffering capacity of coastal wetlands and their resilience under sea-level rise.

Transitions from bare tidal flats to vegetated marshes are an example of shift between alternative stable ecosystem states. Here, the authors use remote sensing and modelling to quantify three stages in tidal flat evolution and identify early warning signals.

Abstract Tidal marshes and mangroves are threatened by relative sea level rise (RSLR) in certain regions on Earth. Elsewhere, these coastal wetlands can adapt through sediment accretion and resulting surface elevation gain. Studies identifying drivers of the global variability in coastal wetland adaptability to RSLR ignored the role of the tidal pattern, varying from semi‐diurnal to diurnal globally. Here, we present a meta‐analysis, including 394 marsh and mangrove sites worldwide, and demonstrate that the tidal pattern explains ~ 25% of the variability in wetland elevation response to RSLR. Using a numerical model, we illustrate that less frequent, diurnal tides trigger lower sediment accretion rates, hence higher wetland vulnerability to RSLR, for various values of RSLR rates, tidal range and sediment supply. Our findings reveal a previously overlooked but relevant driver of coastal wetland adaptability to RSLR and call for new research as tidal patterns may affect other wetland ecosystem functions and services.

Salt marshes play an important role in coastal protection by reducing the impact of waves and shoreline erosion risks. While mature vegetation is responsible for the persistence and stability of marsh ecosystems, seedling survival of pioneer species is especially crucial for marsh propagation. Marsh seedlings, however, may be threatened by climate change induced increased coastal storm surge intensity and accompanying (extreme) wave conditions, imposing stronger drag forces on marsh seedlings. We test the hypothesis that drag forces experienced by seedlings increase with horizontal orbital velocity (Uw) in a species-specific manner, and that the drag forces experienced are individual-plant trait-mediated. To test our hypotheses, seedlings of four contrasting pioneer marsh species (Bolboschoenus maritimus, Schoenoplectus tabernaemontani, Spartina anglica, and Puccinellia maritima) were exposed to storm wave conditions in a flume, where Uw and experienced drag forces were measured. Linear mixed effect models demonstrated that seedling’s susceptibility to storm wave conditions is at least partly mediated by individual plant traits. Drag forces experienced by seedlings tended to increase with Uw, and with stem length and diameter. The interplay of both traits was complex, with increasing stem length being the most important trait accounting for increases in drag forces experienced at low to moderate Uw, while the stem diameter became more important with increasing Uw. Furthermore, experienced drag forces appeared to be affected by species-specific traits such as rigidity and leaf growth, being highest for Bolboschoenus maritimus and lowest for Puccinellia maritima. Our results provide important mechanistic insights into the drivers of tidal marsh seedling vulnerability to storm wave conditions due to experienced drag, both based on the traits of individual plants and species-specific ones. This type of knowledge is of key importance when modelling saltmarsh establishment and resilience under climate change.

Abstract Tidal marsh survival in the face of sea level rise (SLR) and declining sediment supply often depends on the ability of marshes to build soil vertically. However, numerical models typically predict survival under rates of SLR that far exceed field‐based measurements of vertical accretion. Here, we combine novel measurements from seven U.S. Atlantic Coast marshes and data from 70 additional marshes from around the world to illustrate that—over continental scales—70% of variability in marsh accretion rates can be explained by suspended sediment concentratin (SSC) and spring tidal range (TR). Apparent discrepancies between models and measurements can be explained by differing responses in high marshes and low marshes, the latter of which accretes faster for a given SSC and TR. Together these results help bridge the gap between models and measurements, and reinforce the paradigm that sediment supply is the key determinant of wetland vulnerability at continental scales.

The coastal protection function provided by the vegetation of tidal wetlands (e.g. salt marshes) will play an important role in defending coastlines against storm surges in the future and depend on how these systems respond to such forcing. Extreme wave events may induce vegetation failure and thereby risking loss of functionality in coastal protection. However, crucial knowledge on how hydrodynamic forces affect salt-marsh vegetation and whether plant properties might influence plant resistance is missing. In a true-to-scale flume experiment, we exposed two salt-marsh species to extreme hydrodynamic conditions and quantified wave-induced changes in plant frontal area, which was used to estimate plant damage. Moreover, half of the plants were artificially weakened to induce senescence, thus allowing us to examine potential seasonal effects on plant resistance. Morphological, biomechanical as well as biochemical plant properties were assessed to better explain potential differences in wave-induced plant damage. Our results indicate that the plants were more robust than expected, with pioneer species Spartina anglica showing a higher resistance than the high-marsh species Elymus athericus. Furthermore, wave-induced plant damage mostly occurred in the upper part of the vegetation canopy and thus higher canopies (i.e. Elymus athericus) were more vulnerable to damage. Besides a taller canopy, Elymus athericus had weaker stems than Spartina anglica, suggesting that biomechanical properties (flexural stiffness) also played a role in defining plant resistance. Under the highest wave conditions, we also found seasonal differences in the vulnerability to plant damage but only for Elymus athericus. Although we found higher concentrations of a strengthening compound (biogenic silica) in the plant material of the weakened plants, the flexibility of the plant material was not affected indicating that the treatment might not has been applied long enough. Nevertheless, this study yields important implications since we demonstrate a high robustness of the salt-marsh vegetation as well as species-specific and seasonal differences in the vulnerability to plant damage.

Nature-based strategies, such as wave attenuation by tidal marshes, are increasingly proposed as a complement to mitigate the risks of failure of engineered flood defense structures such as levees. However, recent analysis of historic coastal storms revealed smaller dike breach dimensions if there were natural, high tidal marshes in front of the dikes. Since tidal marshes naturally only experience weak flow velocities (~0-0.3 ms-1 during normal spring tides), we lack direct observations on the stability of tidal marsh sediments and vegetation under extreme flow velocities (order of several ms-1) as may occur when a dike behind a marsh breaches. As a first approximation, the stability of a tidal marsh sediment bed and winter-state vegetation under high flow velocities were tested in a flume. Marsh monoliths were excavated from Phragmites australis marshes in front of a dike along the Scheldt estuary (Dutch-Belgian border area) and installed in a 10 m long flume test section. Both sediment bed and vegetation responses were quantified over 6 experimental runs under high flow velocities up to 1.75 ms-1 and water depth up to 0.35 m for 2 hours. These tests showed that even after a cumulative 12 hours exposure to high flow velocities, erosion was limited to as little as a few millimeters. Manual removal of the aboveground vegetation did not enhance the erosion either. Present findings may be related to the strongly consolidated, clay- and silt-rich sediment and P. australis root system in this experiment. During the flow exposure, the P. australis stems were strongly bent by the water flow, but the majority of all shoots recovered rapidly when the flow had stopped. Although present results may not be blindly extrapolated to all other marsh types, they do provide a strong first indication that marshes can remain stable under high flow conditions, and confirm the potential of well-developed tidal marshes as a valuable extra natural barrier reducing flood discharges towards the hinterland, following a dike breach. These outcomes promote the consideration to implement tidal marshes as part of the overall flood defense and to rethink dike strengthening in the future.

The development and expansion of ponds within otherwise vegetated coastal marshes is a primary driver of marsh loss throughout the world. Previous studies propose that large ponds expand through a wind wave-driven positive feedback, where pond edge erosion rates increase with pond size, whereas biochemical processes control the formation and expansion of smaller ponds. However, it remains unclear which mechanisms dominate at a given scale, and thus how, and how fast, ponds increase their size. Here, we use historical photographs and field measurements in a rapidly submerging microtidal marsh to quantify pond development and identify the processes involved. We find that as small ponds emerge on the marsh platform, they quickly coalesce and merge, increasing the number of larger ponds. Pond expansion rates are maximized for intermediate size ponds and decrease for larger ponds, where the contribution of wave-driven erosion is negligible. Vegetation biomass, soil shear strength, and porewater biogeochemical indices of marsh health are higher in marshes adjacent to stable ponds than in those adjacent to unstable ponds, suggesting that pond growth rates are negatively related to the health of the surrounding marsh. We find that the model of Vinent et al. (2021) correctly predicts measured pond growth rates and size distribution, which suggest the different mechanisms driving pond growth are a result of marsh drowning due to sea level rise (SLR) and can be estimated by simplified physical models. Finally, we show that all relevant processes increasing pond size can be summarized by an empirical power-law equation for pond growth which predicts the temporal change of the maximum pond size as a lower bound for the total pond area in the system. This gives a timescale for the growth of ponds by merging and thus the critical time window for interventions to prevent the irreversible pond expansion associated with large scale pond merging.

Understanding the recent changes in mangrove adjacent to mega-cities is critical for conservation, management, and policymaking in coastal zones with fast population growth and global change. Here we investigated mangrove area changes in one of the world’s largest urban areas near the main estuaries in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Mangrove area changes are quantified for the period 1990–2018 by analyzing multiple sources of satellite images by classification algorithms. We found that estuarine mangrove area dynamics are driven by human actions and are contrasting between these two periods. (1) During 1990–2000, the estuarine mangrove area approximately decreased from 11.5 to 6.9 km2, among which the bulk part was transformed into aquaculture ponds (41.1%) and built-up area (29.9%). (2) During 2000–2018, the estuarine mangrove area rapidly increased to 18.3 km2 resulting from the protection and restoration efforts. Proportions of mangrove occurring in nature reserves increased from 37.5% in 1990 to >80% in the 2000s. Two major mangrove expansion ways, natural establishment (NE, in protected areas without any human interference) and human afforestation (HA) accounted almost equally (53.1 and 46.9%) for the gained estuarine mangrove area during 2010–2018. A future projection according to the current mangrove increasing rate suggests that all the low-lying land that is theoretically suitable for mangrove afforestation would be used up by 2060. Although afforestation has contributed to important gains in mangrove quantity, we highlight that it may also imply decreased habitat quality. It has resulted in a great occupation of high tidal mudflats and a loss of their valuable ecosystem services, and it may lead to spreading of non-native species, e.g., Sonneratia apetala, used in afforestation programs. Future restoration approaches should adopt more eco-friendly strategies, like reversing (abandoned) aquaculture ponds to native mangrove forests. Knowledge obtained from the GBA in this study may be also instrumental to ecological restorations for mangrove forests in other urbanized estuaries.

Abstract Interactions between water flow and patchy vegetation are governing the functioning of many ecosystems. Yet, numerical models that simulate those interactions explicitly at the submeter patch scale to predict geomorphological and ecological consequences at the landscape scale (order of km2) are still very computationally demanding. Here, we present a novel and efficient convolution technique to incorporate biogeomorphic feedbacks in numerical models across multiple spatial scales (from less than 1 m2 to several km2). This new methodology allows for spatially refining coarse‐resolution hydrodynamic simulations of flow velocities (order of m) around fine‐resolution patchy vegetation patterns (order of 10 cm). Although flow perturbations around each vegetation grid cell are not simulated with the same level of accuracy as with more expensive finer‐resolution models, we show that our approach enables spatial refinement of coarse‐resolution hydrodynamic models by resolving efficiently subgrid‐scale flow velocity patterns within and around vegetation patches (mean error, spatial variability, and spatial correlation improved by, respectively, 13%, 66%, and 49% on average in our test cases). We also provide evidence that our approach can substantially improve the representation of important biogeomorphic processes, such as subgrid‐scale effects on net sedimentation rate and habitable surface area for vegetation (respectively 66% and 39% better on average). Finally, we estimate that replacing a fine‐resolution model by a coarser‐resolution model associated with the convolution method could reduce the computational time of real‐life fluctuating flow simulations by several orders of magnitude. This marks an important step forward toward more computationally efficient multiscale biogeomorphic modeling.

High-lying vegetated marshes and low-lying bare mudflats have been suggested to be two stable states in intertidal ecosystems. Being able to identify the conditions enabling the shifts between these two stable states is of great importance for ecosystem management in general and the restoration of tidal marsh ecosystems in particular. However, the number of studies investigating the conditions for state shifts from bare mudflats to vegetated marshes remains relatively low. We developed a GIS approach to identify the locations of expected shifts from bare intertidal flats to vegetated marshes along a large estuary (Western Scheldt estuary, SW Netherlands), by analyzing the interactions between spatial patterns of vegetation biomass, elevation, tidal currents, and wind waves. We analyzed false-color aerial images for locating marshes, LIDAR-based digital elevation models, and spatial model simulations of tidal currents and wind waves at the whole estuary scale (~326 km²). Our results demonstrate that: (1) Bimodality in vegetation biomass and intertidal elevation co-occur; (2) the tidal currents and wind waves change abruptly at the transitions between the low-elevation bare state and high-elevation vegetated state. These findings suggest that biogeomorphic feedback between vegetation growth, currents, waves, and sediment dynamics causes the state shifts from bare mudflats to vegetated marshes. Our findings are translated into a GIS approach (logistic regression) to identify the locations of shifts from bare to vegetated states during the studied period based on spatial patterns of elevation, current, and wave orbital velocities. This GIS approach can provide a scientific basis for the management and restoration of tidal marshes.

There is increasing interest in the use of nature-based approaches for mitigation of storm surges along coasts, deltas, and estuaries. However, very few studies have quantified the effectiveness of storm surge height reduction by a real-existing, estuarine-scale, nature-based, and engineered flood defense system, under specific storm surge conditions. Here, we present data and modelling results from a specific storm surge in the Scheldt estuary (Belgium), where a hybrid flood defense system is implemented, consisting of flood control areas, of which some are restored into tidal marsh ecosystems, by use of culvert constructions that allow daily reduced tidal in- and outflow. We present a hindcast simulation of the storm surge of 6 December 2013, using a TELEMAC-3D model of the Scheldt estuary, and model scenarios showing that the hybrid flood defense system resulted in a storm surge height reduction of up to half a meter in the estuary. An important aspect of the work was the implementation of model formulations for calculating flow through culverts of restored marshes. The latter was validated comparing simulated and measured discharges through a physical scale model of a culvert, and through a real-scale culvert of an existing restored marsh during the storm surge.

Multiple stable states are established in coastal tidal wetlands (marshes, mangroves, deltas, seagrasses) by ecological, hydrological, and geomorphological feedbacks. Catastrophic shifts between states can be induced by gradual environmental change or by disturbance events. These feedbacks and outcomes are key to the sustainability and resilience of vegetated coastlines, especially as modulated by human activity, sea level rise, and climate change. Whereas multiple stable state theory has been invoked to model salt marsh responses to sediment supply and sea level change, there has been comparatively little empirical verification of the theory for salt marshes or other coastal wetlands. Especially lacking is long-term evidence documenting if or how stable states are established and maintained at ecosystem scales. Laboratory and field-plot studies are informative, but of necessarily limited spatial and temporal scope. For the purposes of long-term, coastal-scale monitoring, remote sensing is the best viable option. This review summarizes the above topics and highlights the emerging promise and challenges of using remote sensing-based analyses to validate coastal wetland dynamic state theories. This significant opportunity is further framed by a proposed list of scientific advances needed to more thoroughly develop the field.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138086.].

The relative impact of top-down control by herbivores and bottom-up control by environmental conditions on vegetation is a subject of debate in ecology. In this study, we hypothesize that top-down control by goose foraging and bottom-up control by sediment accretion on vegetation composition within an ecosystem can co-occur but operate at different spatial and temporal scales. We used a highly dynamic marsh system with a large population of the Greylag goose (Anser anser) to investigate the potential importance of spatial and temporal scales on these processes. At the local scale, Greylag geese grub for below-ground storage organs of the vegetation, thereby creating bare patches of a few square metres within the marsh vegetation. In our study, such activities by Greylag geese allowed them to exert top-down control by setting back vegetation succession. However, we found that the patches reverted back to the initial vegetation type within 12 years. At large spatial (i.e. several square kilometres) and temporal scales (i.e. decades), high rates of sediment accretion surpassing the rate of local sea-level rise were found to drive long-term vegetation succession and increased cover of several climax vegetation types. In summary, we conclude that the vegetation composition within this tidal marsh was primarily controlled by the bottom-up factor of sediment accretion, which operates at large spatial as well as temporal scales. Top-down control exerted by herbivores was found to be a secondary process and operated at much smaller spatial and temporal scales.

Abstract Phytogenic mounds or nebkhas are formed by spatially isolated burial‐tolerant plants, which have been trapping windborne sediment within their canopies. They occur in drylands all over the world, and nebkha landscapes are considered intermediate between stable grasslands and unstable deserts with mobile dunes. Depending on the previous state of the landscape, they can thus be viewed both as indicators of desertification and as signs of stabilization. While individual nebkha mounds have been studied extensively, little is known about the organization of nebkha landscapes. In this study, we collected spatiotemporal data of vegetation and topography from four self‐made remotely sensed maps, created over a three‐year period from a study site in central Saudi Arabia dominated by the nebkha‐forming shrub Rhazya stricta Decne. Using logistic regressions and t tests, we found that the nebkha shrubs grow in topographic depressions, while they shrink on topographic highs and in locations with high nebkha densities. We propose that this spatial variation in nebkha growth is driven by water availability, as the few extreme rain events that typically make up the bulk of precipitation in deserts would spatially redistribute to topographic lows, and as nebkha density would positively correlate with competition for water. Our data suggest a novel mechanism of biogeomorphological self‐organization in deserts. The observed nebkha growth in depressions would lead to increased sedimentation on and in between the nebkhas owing to reduced wind speed, which after a time lag might transform depressions into topographic highs on which nebkhas tend to shrink because of water shortage. Shrinking nebkhas, in turn, could provoke soil erosion, on as well as in between the nebkha mounds, which may ultimately transform topographic highs into depressions, thereby closing the cycle of self‐organization.

Recent research indicates that many ecosystems, including intertidal marshes, follow the alternative stable states theory. This theory implies that thresholds of environmental factors can mark a limit between two opposing stable ecosystem states, e.g. vegetated marshes and bare mudflats. While elevation relative to mean sea level is considered as the overall threshold condition for colonization of mudflats by vegetation, little is known about the individual driving mechanisms, in particular the impact of waves, and more specifically of wave period. We studied the impact of different wave regimes on plants in a full scale flume experiment. Seedlings and adult shoots of the pioneer Scirpus maritimus were subjected to two wave periods at two water levels. Drag forces acting on, and sediment scouring occurring around the plants were quantified, as these are the two main mechanisms determining plant establishment and survival. Depending on life stage, two distinct survival strategies emerge: seedlings present a stress avoidance strategy by being extremely flexible, thus limiting the drag forces and thereby the risk of breaking. Adult shoots present a stress tolerance strategy by having stiffer stems, which gives them a higher resistance to breaking. These strategies work well under natural, short period wind wave conditions. For long period waves, however, caused e.g. by ships, these survival strategies have a high chance to fail as the flexibility of seedlings and stiffness of adults lead to plant tissue failure and extreme drag forces respectively. This results in both cases in strongly bent plant stems, potentially limiting their survival.

In hydrodynamically stressful environments, some species--known as ecosystem engineers--are able to modify the environment for their own benefit. Little is known however, about the interaction between functional plant traits and ecosystem engineering. We studied the responses of Scirpus tabernaemontani and Scirpus maritimus to wave impact in full-scale flume experiments. Stem density and biomass were used to predict the ecosystem engineering effect of wave attenuation. Also the drag force on plants, their bending angle after wave impact and the stem biomechanical properties were quantified as both responses of stress experienced and effects on ecosystem engineering. We analyzed lignin, cellulose, and silica contents as traits likely effecting stress resistance (avoidance, tolerance). Stem density and biomass were strong predictors for wave attenuation, S. maritimus showing a higher effect than S. tabernaemontani. The drag force and drag force per wet frontal area both differed significantly between the species at shallow water depths (20 cm). At greater depths (35 cm), drag forces and bending angles were significantly higher for S. maritimus than for S. tabernaemontani. However, they do not differ in drag force per wet frontal area due to the larger plant surface of S. maritimus. Stem resistance to breaking and stem flexibility were significantly higher in S. tabernaemontani, having a higher cellulose concentration and a larger cross-section in its basal stem parts. S. maritimus had clearly more lignin and silica contents in the basal stem parts than S. tabernaemontani. We concluded that the effect of biomass seems more relevant for the engineering effect of emergent macrophytes with leaves than species morphology: S. tabernaemontani has avoiding traits with minor effects on wave attenuation; S. maritimus has tolerating traits with larger effects. This implies that ecosystem engineering effects are directly linked with traits affecting species stress resistance and responding to stress experienced.

Mounds originating from wind-blown sediment accumulation beneath vegetation (nebkhas) often indicate land degradation in dry areas. Thus far, most nebkha research has focused on individual plants. Here, we aimed to explore population-scale processes (up to scales of about 100 m) that might explain an observed nebkha landscape pattern. We mapped the Rhazya stricta Decne. population in a 3 ha study site in a hyper-arid region of Saudi Arabia. We compared the spatial patterns of five different cohorts (age classes) of observed nebkha host plants to those expected under several hypothesized drivers of recruitment and intraspecific interaction. We found that all R. stricta cohorts had a limited fractional vegetation cover and established in large-scale clusters. This clustering weakened with cohort age, possibly indicating merging of neighboring vegetation patches. Different cohort clusters did not spatially overlap in most cases, indicating that recruitment patterns changed position over time. Strong indications were found that the main drivers underlying R. stricta spatial configurations were allogenic (i.e. not driven by vegetation) and dynamic. Most likely these drivers were aeolian-driven sand movement or human disturbance which forced offspring recruitment in spatially dynamic clusters. Competition and facilitation were likely active on the field site too, but apparently had a limited effect on the overall landscape structure.

Flux calculations demonstrate that many estuaries are natural filters for trace metals. Yet, the underlying processes are poorly investigated. In the present study, it was hypothesized that intertidal marshes contribute significantly to the contaminant filter function of estuaries. Trace metal concentrations and sediment characteristics were measured along a transect from the subtidal, over an intertidal flat and marsh to a restored marsh with controlled reduced tide. Metal concentrations in the intertidal and restored marsh were found to be a factor two to five higher than values in the subtidal and intertidal flat sediments. High metal concentrations and high accretion rates indicate a high metal accumulation capacity of the intertidal marshes. Overbank sedimentation in the tidal marshes of the entire estuary was calculated to remove 25% to 50% of the riverine metal influx, even though marshes comprise less than 8% of the total surface of the estuary. In addition, the large-scale implementation of planned tidal marsh restoration projects was estimated to almost double the trace metal storage capacity of the present natural tidal marshes in the estuary.

Long-term assessment of ecosystem restoration projects is complex because of ecological processes such as succession, particularly in highly dynamic ecosystems such as estuaries. Restoration of intertidal flats and marshes on formerly embanked land, often called managed coastal realignment (MR), became popular in estuarine management. In our study, biophysical and monetary data were collected to calculate the value of 15 (sub)ecosystem services (ES) delivered by a large tidal marsh restoration project in the Schelde estuary in Belgium and the Netherlands. We hypothesized that ES delivery changes over time due to ecological succession and hence the long-term benefits are subject to this phenomenon and need to be taken into consideration. A marsh sediment accretion model (MARSED) was used to simulate potential marsh succession scenarios. In this way, the temporal evolution of ES delivery caused by ecological succession could be evaluated. Our study shows that benefits during successional marsh stages could actually be higher than for marshes in equilibrium. This finding does not suggest that ecosystems in transition always have a higher value than systems in equilibrium, but emphasizes the need to consider long-term ecological dynamics, such as succession, in a benefit assessment for restoration projects.

Abstract Conservation and restoration of salt marsh ecosystems are becoming increasingly important because of the many ecosystem services they provide. However, the processes controlling salt marsh establishment and persistence, especially on bare tidal flats in muddy areas, remain unclear. As muddy sediments typically experience a restriction of soil drainage, we expect that a surface drainage relief due to a heterogeneity topography, as might occur on the edge of tidal channels, can facilitate the establishment of salt marsh vegetation on muddy tidal flats. By means of a manipulative field experiment, using “Mega‐Marsh Organ” mesocosms, we investigated the impact of surface drainage and elevation relative to mean sea level on (1) the survival of Spartina anglica seedlings from three different age classes: 1‐yr, 3‐month, and 1‐week; and (2) the growth performance of mature S. anglica marsh tussocks. S. anglica seedling survival, especially in the establishment phase, was positively affected by better surface drainage, increases of seedling age, and higher elevation relative to mean sea level. That is, the survival rate of S. anglica seedlings at the end of 6th week increased from 0% (at surface water undrained, 1‐week, 0 cm elevation) to 94.44% (at surface water drained, 1‐yr, 90 cm elevation). In contrast, surface drainage did not affect the performance of large S. anglica marsh tussocks, as only increased elevation relative to mean sea level was shown to affect S. anglica tussock growth in terms of plant height, shoot numbers, and dry biomass. Based on our findings, we proposed a conceptual model to understand how surface drainage‐driven feedbacks in a heterogeneous topography may be reinforced to induce salt marsh establishment in muddy systems. Further testing of present hypothesized model would be beneficial for insights into salt marsh establishment on tidal mudflats.