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Reconstructions of the paleoclimate indicate that ancient climatic fluctuations on Earth are often correlated with variations in its orbital elements. However, the chaos inherent in the solar system’s orbital evolution prevents numerical simulations from confidently predicting Earth’s past orbital evolution beyond 50–100 Myr. Gravitational interactions among the Sun’s planets and asteroids are believed to set this limiting time horizon, but most prior works approximate the solar system as an isolated system and neglect our surrounding Galaxy. Here we present simulations that include the Sun’s nearby stellar population, and we find that close-passing field stars alter our entire planetary system’s orbital evolution via their gravitational perturbations on the giant planets. This shortens the timespan over which Earth’s orbital evolution can be definitively known by a further ∼10%. In particular, in simulations that include an exceptionally close passage of the Sun-like star HD 7977 2.8 Myr ago, new sequences of Earth’s orbital evolution become possible in epochs before ∼50 Myr ago, which includes the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. Thus, simulations predicting Earth’s past orbital evolution before ∼50 Myr ago must consider the additional uncertainty from passing stars, which can open new regimes of past orbital evolution not seen in previous modeling efforts.

Born as ice-rich planetesimals, cometary nuclei were gravitationally scattered onto their current orbits in the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud during the giant planets’ dynamical instability in the early stages of our solar system’s history. Here, we model the thermal evolution of planetesimals during and after the giant planet instability. We couple an adapted thermal evolution model to orbital trajectories provided by N -body simulations to account for the planetesimals’ orbital evolution, a parameter so far neglected by previous thermal evolution studies. Our simulations demonstrate intense thermal processing in all planetesimal populations, mainly concerning the hypervolatile ice content. Unlike previous predictions, we show that hypervolatile survival was possible in a significant number of planetesimals of the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud. Planetesimals ejected into interstellar space proved to be the most processed, while planetesimals ending in the Oort Cloud were the least processed population. We show that processing differences between populations are a direct consequence of their orbital evolution patterns, and that they provide a natural explanation for the observed variability in the abundance ratios of CO on cometary populations and on the recent observations of long-distance CO-driven activity on inbound long-period comets.

Abstract The MMX infrared spectrometer (MIRS) is an imaging spectrometer onboard MMX JAXA mission. MMX (Martian Moon eXploration) is scheduled to be launched in 2024 with sample return to Earth in 2029. MIRS is built at LESIA-Paris Observatory in collaboration with four other French laboratories, collaboration and financial support of CNES and close collaboration with JAXA and MELCO. The instrument is designed to fully accomplish MMX’s scientific and measurement objectives. MIRS will remotely provide near-infrared spectral maps of Phobos and Deimos containing compositional diagnostic spectral features that will be used to analyze the surface composition and to support the sampling site selection. MIRS will also study Mars atmosphere, in particular spatial and temporal changes such as clouds, dust and water vapor. Graphical Abstract

It was recently proposed that there exists a “gateway” in the orbital parameter space through which Centaurs transition to Jupiter-family comets (JFCs). Further studies have implied that the majority of objects that eventually evolve into JFCs should leave the Centaur population through this gateway. This may be naively interpreted as gateway Centaurs being pristine progenitors of JFCs. This is the point we want to address in this work. We show that the opposite is true: gateway Centaurs are, on average, more thermally processed than the rest of the population of Centaurs crossing Jupiter’s orbit. Using a dynamically validated JFC population, we find that only ∼20% of Centaurs pass through the gateway prior to becoming JFCs, in accordance with previous studies. We show that more than half of JFC dynamical clones entering the gateway for the first time have already been JFCs—they simply avoided the gateway on their first pass into the inner solar system. By coupling a thermal evolution model to the orbital evolution of JFC dynamical clones, we find a higher than 50% chance that the layer currently contributing to the observed activity of gateway objects has been physically and chemically altered, due to previously sustained thermal processing. We further illustrate this effect by examining dynamical clones that match the present-day orbits of 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1, P/2019 LD2 (ATLAS), and P/2008 CL94 (Lemmon).

One of the common approximations in long-term evolution studies of small bodies is the use of circular orbits averaging the actual eccentric ones, facilitating the coupling of processes with very different timescales, such as the orbital changes and the thermal processing. Here we test a number of averaging schemes for elliptic orbits in the context of the long-term evolution of comets, aiming to identify the one that best reproduces the elliptic orbits’ heating patterns and the surface and subsurface temperature distributions. We use a simplified thermal evolution model applied on simulated comets both on elliptic and on their equivalent averaged circular orbits, in a range of orbital parameter space relevant to the inner solar system. We find that time-averaging schemes are more adequate than spatial-averaging ones. Circular orbits created by means of a time average of the equilibrium temperature approximate efficiently the subsurface temperature distributions of elliptic orbits in a large area of the orbital parameter space, rendering them a powerful tool for averaging elliptic orbits.

We have collected transit times for the TRAPPIST-1 system with the Spitzer Space Telescope over four years. We add to these ground-based, HST, and K2 transit-time measurements, and revisit an N -body dynamical analysis of the seven-planet system using our complete set of times from which we refine the mass ratios of the planets to the star. We next carry out a photodynamical analysis of the Spitzer light curves to derive the density of the host star and the planet densities. We find that all seven planets’ densities may be described with a single rocky mass–radius relation which is depleted in iron relative to Earth, with Fe 21 wt% versus 32 wt% for Earth, and otherwise Earth-like in composition. Alternatively, the planets may have an Earth-like composition but enhanced in light elements, such as a surface water layer or a core-free structure with oxidized iron in the mantle. We measure planet masses to a precision of 3%–5%, equivalent to a radial-velocity (RV) precision of 2.5 cm s ^−1 , or two orders of magnitude more precise than current RV capabilities. We find the eccentricities of the planets are very small, the orbits are extremely coplanar, and the system is stable on 10 Myr timescales. We find evidence of infrequent timing outliers, which we cannot explain with an eighth planet; we instead account for the outliers using a robust likelihood function. We forecast JWST timing observations and speculate on possible implications of the planet densities for the formation, migration, and evolution of the planet system.