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La deforestación en la Amazonía peruana es un grave problema que perjudica a las especies que habitan en ellas; especialmente a especies endémicas, pues poseen un rango de distribución limitado. En el Perú, una de las tres especies de primates endémicas —el mono tocón de San Martín— ha sido catalogada como en peligro crítico de extinción, debido a amenazas como la deforestación y el cambio climático. A partir de la premisa anterior, el presente estudio analiza la evolución del hábitat en un período comprendido entre 1987 a 2017, así como el hábitat futuro en el año 2050, en base a técnicas de análisis espacial, muestreo de puntos de presencia/ausencia y el modelamiento de la distribución de especies. Los principales resultados arrojan una pérdida considerable de cobertura vegetal en el período comprendido entre 1987 y 2006, producto de la deforestación; pero un aumento de superficie vegetal entre 2006 y 2017, ligado al incremento de cultivos permanentes como el cacao y café en la región. Asimismo, se logró la adición de dos nuevas localidades con presencia del primate en la zona norte del área de estudio. Y, finalmente, con la modelación futura y la información de pérdida actual de bosques, se evidencia un escenario pesimista para la supervivencia del primate en un futuro bajo la influencia del cambio climático.

Climate change is expected to impact animals that are heavily reliant on environmental factors, such as sea turtles, since the incubation of their eggs, hatching success and sex ratio are influenced by the environment in which eggs incubate. As climate change progresses it is therefore important to understand how climatic conditions influence their reproductive output and the ramifications to population stability. Here, we examined the influences of five climatic variables (air temperature, accumulated and average precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) at different temporal scales on hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) hatchling production at ten nesting beaches within two regions of Brazil (five nesting beaches in Rio Grande do Norte and five in Bahia). Air temperature and accumulated precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hawksbill hatching success (number of eggs hatched within a nest) across Brazil and in Rio Grande do Norte, while air temperature and average precipitation were the main climatic drivers of hatching success at Bahia. Solar radiation was the main climatic driver of emergence success (number of hatchlings that emerged from total hatched eggs within a nest) at both regions. Warmer temperatures and higher solar radiation had negative effects on hatchling production, while wetter conditions had a positive effect. Conservative and extreme climate scenarios show air temperatures are projected to increase at this site, while precipitation projections vary between scenarios and regions throughout the 21st century. We predicted hatching success of undisturbed nests (no recorded depredation or storm-related impacts) will decrease in Brazil by 2100 as a result of how this population is influenced by local climate. This study shows the determining effects of different climate variables and their combinations on an important and critically endangered marine species.