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Abstract Rockland habitat in South Florida, USA, is a threatened ecosystem that has been lost, fragmented, or degraded because of urbanization or other anthropogenic disturbance. Furthermore, low‐lying islands and coastal areas are experiencing sea level rise (SLR) and an increased frequency and intensity of tidal flooding, putting rockland habitats there at increasing risk of ecological change. We evaluated changes in the extent of rockland habitat under various scenarios of future SLR, tidal flooding, and human development for two endemic state‐listed threatened species of snakes, the Rim Rock Crowned Snake (Tantilla oolitica) and the Key Ring‐necked Snake (Diadophis punctatus acricus). Both snakes are restricted to South Florida. We used recent and historical species' records to determine each species' habitat range. We then estimated the extent of future habitat loss due to SLR and continued human development, as well as degradation of the remaining habitat. We also asked whether the future potential drivers of habitat loss and degradation differ between the two species and across their habitat ranges. We predicted that saltwater intrusion could negatively affect rocklands by 2050, resulting in degradation of 80% of the existing habitat because of an anticipated 42 cm of SLR. Moreover, our model suggests short‐term stochastic events such as storm surge and high tides may increasingly saturate the root zone of rockland vegetation before complete inundation. Under the extreme scenario, we predict most of the rockland habitat used by these two species of snakes may be inundated by 2080. Under the extreme SLR scenario, current rocklands are likely to convert to more halophytic habitat (mangrove or salt marsh wetland) within 50–60 years. Under the low scenario, 31% of rockland habitat may be lost due to human development by 2030. Therefore, mitigation actions may help to conserve specialist species within rockland habitat threatened by human activities and climate change.

Abstract Tree islands, a prominent feature of wetland landscapes worldwide, are patches of forest scattered throughout a matrix of herbaceous marsh. In the Florida Everglades, their development over millennia as elevated, relatively well‐drained features above the wetland surface has made them cultural centers for indigenous people and refugia for a rich assortment of plants and animals. However, since the early years of the twentieth century, the number and area of tree islands have been roughly halved in Everglades National Park and Water Conservation Areas due to scarce or excessive water levels, leading to fires or persistent flooding, respectively. This loss has prompted a need for tree island rehabilitation or reconstruction within the ongoing state–federal partnership to bring about Everglades restoration. In this paper, we present results of a field‐scale experiment that examined the effects of flooding, planting density, and the size and proximity of neighbors on the performance of native tree species on constructed tree islands. Hypotheses derived using the stress‐gradient hypothesis as a framework were tested at the neighborhood level. Flooding reduced survival and mean tree size 7–8 years after initial planting, while planting seedlings at spacings as close as 1 m apart resulted in higher total biomass, with no significant cost in tree survival. Flood‐tolerant species increased in relative abundance during the study period along the entire hydrologic gradient, while flood‐intolerant species were able to survive only at higher elevations. Crowding effects within neighborhoods varied across the flooding gradient. Survival increased or remained stable as neighbor effects increased in high‐flooding zones, while declining sharply as crowding increased under low‐flooding conditions. Similar results were obtained for the growth of flood‐tolerant species under close spacing, with most showing an increment in growth where flooding was high. These data suggest that tree island restoration can benefit from targeted mixed‐species plantings at variable densities, as the compositional and structural heterogeneity promoted by these measures may increase adaptability and resilience to future uncertainties.

Numerous studies address changes in wetland deposition in response to saltwater encroachment driven by the accelerating rate of sea-level rise, by quantifying temporal changes recovered from a vertical sediment sequence. This is the first landscape scale study, based upon 10 core transects representing the heterogeneity of the Southeast Saline Everglades, Florida. By utilizing the known salinity preferences of molluscan assemblages, a Salinity Index was calculated for each core sequence and the recorded salinity changes identified and dated. Radiometric dating utilizing the 210Pb method provides the rate of sediment accumulation and the date of changes identified in the core. The core transects provide the basis for calculation of the rate of saltwater encroachment by comparing the date of saltwater encroachment and the distance between two cores. Thereby, temporal and spatial changes in other sediment parameters in a landscape can also be quantified, such as organic carbon. This paleo-ecological approach to rapidly changing coastal conditions can be utilized to provide scientists and land managers with a record of the past, rate of changing conditions and provide the basis for predicting the future trajectory of their site. Application of this paleo-ecological approach documented increasing rates of saltwater encroachment associated with accelerating rate of sea-level rise: an average rate of 49.1 between 1895 and 1940, 69.2 between 1940 and 1968, 73 between 1968 and 1995 and 131.1 m/yr between 1995 and 2015. Approximately 1.79 km of saltwater encroachment has occurred since 1995, with three partial reversals because of increased freshwater delivery. Associated with saltwater encroachment are changes in sediment organic carbon, decreasing area of marl production and increasing distribution of mangrove. Although the distance of saltwater encroachment is greater in Florida Bay, both changes in sediment organic carbon and mangrove distribution are much less than in Biscayne Bay coastal basins. This heterogeneity is likely the result of differences in tidal ingress efficiency. At the present rate of saltwater encroachment, the freshwater wetlands are predictably lost within a century.

Abstract Background Exotic parrots have established breeding populations in southeast Florida, including several species that nest in tree cavities. We aimed to determine the species identity, nest site requirements, relative nest abundance, geographic distribution, and interactions of parrots with native cavity-nesting bird species. Methods We searched Miami-Dade County, Florida, and nearby areas for natural cavities and holes excavated by woodpeckers, recording attributes of potential nest trees. We inspected all cavities with an elevated video inspection system to determine occupancy by parrots or other birds. We mapped nearly 4000 citizen science observations of parrots in our study area corresponding to our study period, and used these to construct range maps, comparing them to our nesting observations. Results Not all parrots reported or observed in our study area were actively breeding. Some parrots were observed at tree cavities, which previous studies have suggested is evidence of reproduction, but our inspections with an elevated video inspection system suggest they never initiated nesting attempts. Several parrot species did successfully nest in tree cavities, Red-masked Parakeets (Psittacara erythrogenys) and Orange-winged Parrots (Amazona amazonica) being the most common (n = 7 and 6 nests, respectively). These two parrots had similar nesting requirements, but Orange-winged Parrots use nests with larger entrance holes, which they often enlarge. Geographic analysis of nests combined with citizen science data indicate that parrots are limited to developed areas. The most common parrots were less abundant cavity nesters than the native birds which persist in Miami’s urban areas, and far less abundant than the invasive European Starling (Sturnus vulgaris). Conclusions Exotic parrots breeding elsewhere in the world have harmed native cavity-nesting birds through interference competition, but competitive interference in southeast Florida is minimized by the urban affinities of parrots in this region. The relative abundance and geographic distribution suggest that these parrots are unlikely to invade adjacent wilderness areas.

Abstract The hardwood forests of south Florida, commonly referred to as hammocks, persist as well‐drained patches of broadleaf forest, embedded in a matrix of brackish water swamp, freshwater marsh, or pineland. Little is known about the patterns of community assembly of these subtropical forest communities in the landscape mosaic of south Florida. We used a functional trait approach to understand the composition of these communities and their responses to environmental variation across four areas of south Florida: the pine rocklands and freshwater marshes in Everglades National Park, and the lower and upper Florida Keys, where the hammocks are surrounded by halophytic swamp communities. These sites represent an environmental gradient from less‐productive, more xeric sites in the lower Florida Keys, to more‐productive, wetter sites in the Everglades marshes. We examined the patterns of trait variation at three levels (individual, population, and community) to examine the underlying processes driving assembly in these hammock communities. To understand processes governing community composition in each site, we used methods that partition variance in six traits (maximum tree height, specific leaf area, wood specific gravity, leaf nitrogen, leaf phosphorus, and leaf stable carbon isotope ratios) into internal and external filtering components. Community‐weighted mean trait values for three traits (specific leaf area, height, and leaf phosphorus) increased significantly from dry, less‐productive coastal sites in the Florida Keys to the moist, more‐productive areas on the mainland, while wood specific gravity and leaf δ13C showed the opposite pattern. For one or more traits per site, standardized effect sizes differed significantly from null expectation. Processes such as competition for resources (e.g., water, nutrients, light) and species sorting across microhabitats (i.e., within site) operate to increase local functional trait variation within communities and among species across sites. External filtering on individuals for height and leaf phosphorus differed significantly from null expectations across sites, while external filtering on species was only observed for specific leaf area, maximum tree height, and leaf phosphorus. These results are consistent with strong environmental filtering across the region, among local communities differing in freshwater accessibility or that occupy different positions along strong edaphic gradients. Our results confirm the importance of intraspecific variation among species and reflect a high degree of trait plasticity across the environmental gradient.

Fungi play prominent roles in ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient cycling, decomposition) and thus have increasingly garnered attention in restoration ecology. However, it is unclear how most management decisions impact fungal communities, making it difficult to protect fungal diversity and utilize fungi to improve restoration success. To understand the effects of restoration decisions and environmental variation on fungal communities, we sequenced soil fungal microbiomes from 96 sites across eight experimental Everglades tree islands approximately 15 years after restoration occurred. We found that early restoration decisions can have enduring consequences for fungal communities. Factors experimentally manipulated in 2003–2007 (e.g., type of island core) had significant legacy effects on fungal community composition. Our results also emphasized the role of water regime in fungal diversity, composition, and function. As the relative water level decreased, so did fungal diversity, with an approximately 25% decline in the driest sites. Further, as the water level decreased, the abundance of the plant pathogen–saprotroph guild increased, suggesting that low water may increase plant-pathogen interactions. Our results indicate that early restoration decisions can have long-term consequences for fungal community composition and function and suggest that a drier future in the Everglades could reduce fungal diversity on imperiled tree islands.

Mangrove migration, or transgression in response to global climatic changes or sea-level rise, is a slow process; to capture it, understanding both the present distribution of mangroves at individual patch (single- or clumped trees) scale, and their rates of change are essential. In this study, a new method was developed to delineate individual patches and to estimate mangrove cover from very high-resolution (0.08 m spatial resolution) true color (Red (R), Green (G), and Blue (B) spectral channels) aerial photography. The method utilizes marker-based watershed segmentation, where markers are detected using a vegetation index and Otsu’s automatic thresholding. Fourteen commonly used vegetation indices were tested, and shadows were removed from the segmented images to determine their effect on the accuracy of tree detection, cover estimation, and patch delineation. According to point-based accuracy analysis, we obtained adjusted overall accuracies >90% in tree detection using seven vegetation indices. Likewise, using an object-based approach, the highest overlap accuracy between predicted and reference data was 95%. The vegetation index Excess Green (ExG) without shadow removal produced the most accurate mangrove maps by separating tree patches from shadows and background marsh vegetation and detecting more individual trees. The method provides high precision delineation of mangrove trees and patches, and the opportunity to analyze mangrove migration patterns at the scale of isolated individuals and patches.

In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

In south Florida, tropical hardwood forests (hammocks) occur in Everglades tree islands and as more extensive forests in coastal settings in the nearby Florida Keys. Keys hammocks have been less disturbed by humans, and many qualify as “old-growth,” while Everglades hammocks have received much heavier use. With improvement of tree island condition an important element in Everglades restoration efforts, we examined stand structure in 23 Keys hammocks and 69 Everglades tree islands. Based on Stand Density Index and tree diameter distributions, many Everglades hammocks were characterized by low stocking and under-representation in the smaller size classes. In contrast, most Keys forests had the dense canopies and open understories usually associated with old-growth hardwood hammocks. Subject to the same caveats that apply to off-site references elsewhere, structural information from mature Keys hammocks can be helpful in planning and implementing forest restoration in Everglades tree islands. In many of these islands, such restoration might involve supplementing tree stocking by planting native trees to produce more complete site utilization and a more open understory.