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During the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments must make decisions based on a variety of information including estimations of infection spread, health care capacity, economic and psychosocial considerations. The disparate validity of current short-term forecasts of these factors is a major challenge to governments. By causally linking an established epidemiological spread model with dynamically evolving psychosocial variables, using Bayesian inference we estimate the strength and direction of these interactions for German and Danish data of disease spread, human mobility, and psychosocial factors based on the serial cross-sectional COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO; N = 16,981). We demonstrate that the strength of cumulative influence of psychosocial variables on infection rates is of a similar magnitude as the influence of physical distancing. We further show that the efficacy of political interventions to contain the disease strongly depends on societal diversity, in particular group-specific sensitivity to affective risk perception. As a consequence, the model may assist in quantifying the effect and timing of interventions, forecasting future scenarios, and differentiating the impact on diverse groups as a function of their societal organization. Importantly, the careful handling of societal factors, including support to the more vulnerable groups, adds another direct instrument to the battery of political interventions fighting epidemic spread. Author summary Societies have a rich inter-individual variability, different cultures, wealth distribution, and ways of functioning, but most epidemic models describe the dynamics of a homogeneous population in different disease stages. The COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating existing global and national inequalities, which typically hit the most vulnerable groups hardest. The focus of policymakers has been on containing the spread of COVID-19 and mitigating the socioeconomic effects of the pandemic. With the introduction of psychosocial coupling in epidemic disease models, the consideration of effects linked to societal diversity becomes possible. The model parameters absorb all properties characterizing the diversity of society including psychosocial factors. We estimated the strength and direction of psychosocial causes within a causal inference framework and demonstrated their effect upon the infectious spread to be smaller, but on a similar scale of magnitude as current political interventions and seasonality. Our cause-effect analysis considered minor parametric changes due to psychosocial variation, but has the capacity to integrate a large range of multi-dimensional data including societal, national and cultural differences, political strategies, and trust in the government and media. Given the here estimated size of psychosocial causes, the synergy of these interactions may likely reach scales that cannot be ignored in epidemic spread.

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments must make decisions based on a variety of information including estimations of infection spread, health care capacity, economic and psychosocial considerations. The disparate validity of current short-term forecasts of these factors is a major challenge to governments. By causally linking an established epidemiological spread model with dynamically evolving psychosocial variables, using Bayesian inference we estimate the strength and direction of these interactions for German and Danish data of disease spread, human mobility, and psychosocial factors based on the serial cross-sectional COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO; N = 16,981). We demonstrate that the strength of cumulative influence of psychosocial variables on infection rates is of a similar magnitude as the influence of physical distancing. We further show that the efficacy of political interventions to contain the disease strongly depends on societal diversity, in particular group-specific sensitivity to affective risk perception. As a consequence, the model may assist in quantifying the effect and timing of interventions, forecasting future scenarios, and differentiating the impact on diverse groups as a function of their societal organization. Importantly, the careful handling of societal factors, including support to the more vulnerable groups, adds another direct instrument to the battery of political interventions fighting epidemic spread.

The Virtual Brain (TVB) is now available as open-source services on the cloud research platform EBRAINS (ebrains.eu). It offers software for constructing, simulating and analysing brain network models including the TVB simulator; magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) processing pipelines to extract structural and functional brain networks; combined simulation of large-scale brain networks with small-scale spiking networks; automatic conversion of user-specified model equations into fast simulation code; simulation-ready brain models of patients and healthy volunteers; Bayesian parameter optimization in epilepsy patient models; data and software for mouse brain simulation; and extensive educational material. TVB cloud services facilitate reproducible online collaboration and discovery of data assets, models, and software embedded in scalable and secure workflows, a precondition for research on large cohort data sets, better generalizability, and clinical translation.

Advances in experimental techniques and computational power allowing researchers to gather anatomical and electrophysiological data at unprecedented levels of detail have fostered the development of increasingly complex models in computational neuroscience. Large-scale, biophysically detailed cell models pose a particular set of computational challenges, and this has led to the development of a number of domain-specific simulators. At the other level of detail, the ever growing variety of point neuron models increases the implementation barrier even for those based on the relatively simple integrate-and-fire neuron model. Independently of the model complexity, all modeling methods crucially depend on an efficient and accurate transformation of mathematical model descriptions into efficiently executable code. Neuroscientists usually publish model descriptions in terms of the mathematical equations underlying them. However, actually simulating them requires they be translated into code. This can cause problems because errors may be introduced if this process is carried out by hand, and code written by neuroscientists may not be very computationally efficient. Furthermore, the translated code might be generated for different hardware platforms, operating system variants or even written in different languages and thus cannot easily be combined or even compared. Two main approaches to addressing this issues have been followed. The first is to limit users to a fixed set of optimized models, which limits flexibility. The second is to allow model definitions in a high level interpreted language, although this may limit performance. Recently, a third approach has become increasingly popular: using code generation to automatically translate high level descriptions into efficient low level code to combine the best of previous approaches. This approach also greatly enriches efforts to standardize simulator-independent model description languages. In the past few years, a number of code generation pipelines have been developed in the computational neuroscience community, which differ considerably in aim, scope and functionality. This article provides an overview of existing pipelines currently used within the community and contrasts their capabilities and the technologies and concepts behind them.

TheVirtualBrain (TVB) is a neuroinformatics Python package representing theconvergence of clinical, systems, and theoretical neuroscience in the analysis,visualization and modeling of neural and neuroimaging dynamics. TVB iscomposed of a flexible simulator for neural dynamics measured across scalesfrom local populations to large-scale dynamics measured byelectroencephalography (EEG), magnetoencephalography (MEG) and functionalmagnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and core analytic and visualizationfunctions, all accessible through a web browser user interface. A datatypesystem modeling neuroscientific data ties together these pieces with persistentdata storage, based on a combination of SQL & HDF5. These datatypes combinewith adapters allowing TVB to integrate other algorithms or computationalsystems. TVB provides infrastructure for multiple projects and multiple users,possibly participating under multiple roles. For example, a clinician mightimport patient data to identify several potential lesion points in thepatient's connectome. A modeler, working on the same project, tests thesepoints for viability through whole brain simulation, based on the patient'sconnectome, and subsequent analysis of dynamical features. TVB also drivesresearch forward: the simulator itself represents the culmination of severalsimulation frameworks in the modeling literature. The availability of thenumerical methods, set of neural mass models and forward solutions allows forthe construction of a wide range of brain-scale simulation scenarios. Thispaper briefly outlines the history and motivation for TVB, describing theframework and simulator, giving usage examples in the web UI and Pythonscripting.

We present TheVirtualBrain (TVB), a neuroinformatics platform for full brainnetwork simulations using biologically realistic connectivity. This simulationenvironment enables the model-based inference of neurophysiological mechanismsacross different brain scales that underlie the generation of macroscopicneuroimaging signals including functional MRI (fMRI), EEG and MEG. Researchersfrom different backgrounds can benefit from an integrative software platformincluding a supporting framework for data management (generation,organization, storage, integration and sharing) and a simulation core writtenin Python. TVB allows the reproduction and evaluation of personalizedconfigurations of the brain by using individual subject data. Thispersonalization facilitates an exploration of the consequences of pathologicalchanges in the system, permitting to investigate potential ways to counteractsuch unfavorable processes. The architecture of TVB supports interaction withMATLAB packages, for example, the well known Brain Connectivity Toolbox. TVBcan be used in a client-server configuration, such that it can be remotelyaccessed through the Internet thanks to its web-basedHTML5, JS and WebGL graphical user interface. TVB is alsoaccessible as a standalone cross-platform Python library and application, andusers can interact with the scientific core through the scripting interfaceIDLE, enabling easy modeling, development and debugging of the scientifickernel. This second interface makes TVB extensible by combining it with otherlibraries and modules developed by the Python scientific community. In this article, we describe the theoretical background and foundations that led to thedevelopment of TVB, the architecture and features of its major softwarecomponents as well as potential neuroscience applications.

Low-dimensional attractive manifolds with flows prescribing the evolution of state variables are commonly used to capture the lawful behavior of behavioral and cognitive variables. Neural network dynamics underlie many of the mechanistic explanations of function and demonstrate the existence of such low-dimensional attractive manifolds. In this study, we focus on exploring the network mechanisms due to asymmetric couplings giving rise to the emergence of arbitrary flows in low dimensional spaces. Here we use a spiking neural network model, specifically the theta neuron model and simple synaptic dynamics, to show how a qualitatively identical set of basic behaviors arises from different combinations of couplings with broken symmetry, in fluctuations of both firing rate and spike timing. We further demonstrate how such network dynamics can be combined to create more complex processes. These results suggest that 1) asymmetric coupling is not always a variance to be averaged over, 2) different networks may produce the same dynamics by different dynamical routes and 3) complex dynamics may be formed by simpler dynamics through a combination of couplings.