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14 results on '"Marco Turco"'

1. A monthly gridded burned area database of national wildland fire data

Author

Andrina Gincheva, Juli G. Pausas, Andrew Edwards, Antonello Provenzale, Artemi Cerdà, Chelene Hanes, Dominic Royé, Emilio Chuvieco, Florent Mouillot, Gabriele Vissio, Jesús Rodrigo, Joaquin Bedía, John T. Abatzoglou, José María Senciales González, Karen C. Short, Mara Baudena, Maria Carmen Llasat, Marta Magnani, Matthias M. Boer, Mauro E. González, Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez, Paolo Fiorucci, Peter Jacklyn, Renata Libonati, Ricardo M. Trigo, Sixto Herrera, Sonia Jerez, Xianli Wang, and Marco Turco

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Abstract We assembled the first gridded burned area (BA) database of national wildfire data (ONFIRE), a comprehensive and integrated resource for researchers, non-government organisations, and government agencies analysing wildfires in various regions of the Earth. We extracted and harmonised records from different regions and sources using open and reproducible methods, providing data in a common framework for the whole period available (starting from 1950 in Australia, 1959 in Canada, 1985 in Chile, 1980 in Europe, and 1984 in the United States) up to 2021 on a common 1° × 1° grid. The data originate from national agencies (often, ground mapping), thus representing the best local expert knowledge. Key opportunities and limits in using this dataset are discussed as well as possible future expansions of this open-source approach that should be explored. This dataset complements existing gridded BA data based on remote sensing and offers a valuable opportunity to better understand and assess fire regime changes, and their drivers, in these regions. The ONFIRE database can be freely accessed at https://zenodo.org/record/8289245 .

Published
2024
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2. The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers

Author

Andrina Gincheva, Juli G. Pausas, Miguel Ángel Torres‐Vázquez, Joaquín Bedia, Sergio M. Vicente‐Serrano, John T. Abatzoglou, Josep A. Sánchez‐Espigares, Emilio Chuvieco, Sonia Jerez, Antonello Provenzale, Ricardo M. Trigo, and Marco Turco

Subjects
climate‐fire, burned area, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract

Abstract Better understanding how fires respond to climate variability is an issue of current interest in light of ongoing climate change. However, evaluating the global‐scale temporal variability of fires in response to climate presents a challenge due to the intricate processes at play and the limitation of fire data. Here, we investigate the links between year‐to‐year variability of burned area (BA) and climate using BA data, the Fire Weather Index (FWI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 2001 to 2021 at ecoregion scales. Our results reveal complex spatial patterns in the dependence of BA variability on antecedent and concurrent weather conditions, highlighting where BA is mostly influenced by either FWI or SPEI and where the combined effect of both indicators must be considered. Our findings indicate that same‐season weather conditions have a more pronounced relationship with BA across various ecoregions, particularly in climatologically wetter areas. Additionally, we note that BA is also significantly associated with periods of antecedent wetness and coolness, with this association being especially evident in more arid ecoregions. About 60% of the interannual variations in BA can be explained by climatic variability in a large fraction (∼77%) of the world's burnable regions.

Published
2024
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3. An Action‐Oriented Approach to Make the Most of the Wind and Solar Power Complementarity

Author

Sonia Jerez, David Barriopedro, Alejandro García‐López, Raquel Lorente‐Plazas, Andrés M. Somoza, Marco Turco, Judit Carrillo, and Ricardo M. Trigo

Subjects
energy transition, wind power, solar power, wind‐solar complementarity, optimal renewable energy scenarios, CLIMAX, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Ecology, QH540-549.5
Abstract

Abstract Solar and wind power are called to play a main role in the transition toward decarbonized electricity systems. However, their integration in the energy mix is highly compromised due to the intermittency of their production caused by weather and climate variability. To face the challenge, here we present research about actionable strategies for wind and solar photovoltaic facilities deployment that exploit their complementarity in order to minimize the volatility of their combined production while guaranteeing a certain supply. The developed methodology has been implemented in an open‐access step‐wise model called CLIMAX. It first identifies regions with homogeneous temporal variability of the resources, and then determines the optimal shares of each technology over such regions. In the simplistic application performed here, we customize the model to narrow the monthly deviations of the total wind‐plus‐solar electricity production from a given curve (here, the mean annual cycle of the total production) across five European domains. For the current shares of both technologies, the results show that an optimal siting of the power units would reduce the standard deviation of the monthly anomalies of the total wind‐plus‐solar power generation by up to 20% without loss in the mean capacity factor as compared to a baseline scenario with an evenly spatial distribution of the installations. This result further improves (up to 60% in specific regions) if the total shares of each technology are also optimized, thus encouraging the use of CLIMAX for practical guidance of next‐generation renewable energy scenarios.

Published
2023
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4. High resolution monitoring and probabilistic prediction of meteorological drought in a Mediterranean environment

Author

Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez, Amar Halifa-Marín, Juan Pedro Montávez, and Marco Turco

Subjects
Drought, Seasonal forecasts, Standardized precipitation index (SPI), Meteorology. Climatology, QC851-999
Abstract

Drought remains a costly natural disaster, with strong socio-economic and environmental impacts. Skilful seasonal drought forecasts can help to make early decisions. Here we assess the quality of a prototype seasonal forecasting system for a Mediterranean region (peninsular Spain + Balearic Islands) to predict meteorological drought as measured by the standardised precipitation index (SPI). We first show that there is a high agreement between the official data provided by the Spanish Meteorological Agency and the state-of-the art ERA5 reanalysis, building confidence in using these datasets. Thus, since the ERA5 data are provided in near-real time as it is updated on a monthly basis, it can be used to monitor drought evolution. Then, we demonstrate that it is possible to obtain skilful and reliable seasonal drought predictions several months in advance by applying an ensemble-based streamflow prediction system (ESP, an ensemble based on the rearrangement of historical data) using ERA5 data as initial conditions. The results indicate that a statistical persistence-based model could lead to an actionable seasonal drought forecasting skill thus providing the basis for a cheap and fast prototype for drought early warning.

Published
2023
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5. Atlantic Multidecadal Variability modulates the climate impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Australia

Author

Paloma Trascasa-Castro, Amanda C Maycock, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Marco Turco, and Paul W Staten

Subjects
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, ENSO, teleconnections, climate impacts, Australia, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) modulates El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. Here, we explore the effect of warm (AMV+) and cold (AMV−) AMV conditions on the austral summer teleconnection of ENSO to Australia using idealized simulations performed with the NCAR-CESM1 model. AMV+ strengthens the mean and extreme precipitation and temperature responses to El Niño in south-western Australia and weakens the mean precipitation and temperature impacts in north-eastern Australia. The modulation of La Niña impacts by AMV is asymmetric to El Niño, with a weakening of the mean and extreme precipitation and temperature responses in eastern Australia. Decomposing the total difference in ENSO response between AMV phases, we find that the signals are mainly explained by the direct AMV modulation of ENSO and its teleconnections rather than by changes in background climate induced by AMV. The exception is ENSO-driven fire impacts, where there is a significant increase in burned area in south-eastern Australia only when El Niño and AMV+ co-occur. However, modulation of ENSO between AMV+ and AMV− does offset ∼37% of the decrease in burned area extent during La Niña summers. The altered surface climate response to ENSO in Australia by AMV is attributed to variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation. Under AMV+, there is increased subsidence over western Australia during El Niño associated with a westward shift of the local Walker circulation. A weakening of the upwelling branch of the local Hadley circulation over north-eastern Australia is responsible for the weakening of La Niña impacts in AMV+, accompanied by a strengthening of subsidence in south central Australia due to a weakening of the local Hadley circulation, amplifying La Niña impacts over this region. The results suggest the potential for AMV to drive multidecadal variability in ENSO impacts over Australia.

Published
2023
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6. Population exposure to particulate-matter and related mortality due to the Portuguese wildfires in October 2017 driven by storm Ophelia

Author

Sofia Augusto, Nuno Ratola, Patricia Tarín-Carrasco, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero, Marco Turco, Marta Schuhmacher, Solange Costa, J.P. Teixeira, and Carla Costa

Subjects
PM10, Wildfires, Mortality, Exposure assessment, Environmental sciences, GE1-350
Abstract

In October 2017, hundreds of wildfires ravaged the forests of the north and centre of Portugal. The fires were fanned by strong winds as tropical storm Ophelia swept the Iberian coast, dragging up smoke (together with Saharan dust from north-western Africa) into higher western European latitudes. Here we analyse the long-range transport of particulate matter (PM10) and study associations between PM10 and short-term mortality in the Portuguese population exposed to PM10 due to the October 2017 wildfires, the worst fire sequence in the country over the last decades. We analysed space- and ground-level observations to track the smoke plume and dust trajectory over Portugal and Europe, and to access PM10 concentrations during the wildfires. The effects of PM10 on mortality were evaluated using satellite data for exposure and Poisson regression models. The smoke plume covered most western European countries (including Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands), and reached the United Kingdom, where the population was exposed in average to an additional PM10 level of 11.7 µg/m3 during seven smoky days (three with dust) in relation to the reference days (days without smoke or dust), revealing the impact of the wildfires on distant populations. In Portugal, the population was exposed in average to additional PM10 levels that varied from 16.2 to 120.6 µg/m3 in smoky days with dust and from 6.1 to 20.9 µg/m3 in dust-free smoky days. Results suggest that PM10 had a significant effect on the same day natural and cardiorespiratory mortalities during the month of October 2017. For every additional 10 µg/m3 of PM10, there was a 0.89% (95% confidence interval, CI, 0–1.77%) increase in the number of natural deaths and a 2.34% (95% CI, 0.99–3.66%) increase in the number of cardiorespiratory-related deaths. With rising temperatures and a higher frequency of storms due to climate change, PM from Iberian wildfires together with NW African dust will tend to be more often transported into Northern European countries, which may carry health threats to areas far from the ignition sites.

Published
2020
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7. On the Spin‐Up Period in WRF Simulations Over Europe: Trade‐Offs Between Length and Seasonality

Author

Sonia Jerez, Jose María López‐Romero, Marco Turco, Raquel Lorente‐Plazas, Juan José Gómez‐Navarro, Pedro Jiménez‐Guerrero, and Juan Pedro Montávez

Subjects
regional climate models, spin‐up period, Euro‐Cordex, WRF, Physical geography, GB3-5030, Oceanography, GC1-1581
Abstract

Abstract Regional climate models (RCMs) are usually initialized and driven through the boundaries of their limited area domain by data provided by global models (GCMs). The mismatch between the low‐resolution GCM initial conditions and RCM's high resolution introduces physical inconsistencies between the various components of the RCM. These inconsistencies can be resolved by running the RCM during a period that is considered unreliable: the spin‐up period. There is no deterministic definition of the length that the spin‐up period should have. Here we try to provide general guidelines that can be used to the advantage of the community. We base our analysis on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations over a Euro‐Cordex compliant domain and find that for 2‐m temperature and precipitation, rather short spin‐up periods (1 week) can be sufficient. Nevertheless, longer periods (6 months) are advisable, and start dates in non‐winter months should be pursued, as this ensures a more realistic representation of the snow cover. Thus, the issue is not only about the spin‐up length. As the soil subsystem evolves slowly and requires longer periods to reach equilibrium than the longest considered here (1 year), seasonality plays an important role in minimizing the impact of the unreliability of the soil initialization. Fortunately, except for goals where the deep soil‐atmosphere feedback are critical, the lack of equilibrium between them can be ignored, as it seems to have little effect on the simulation of the atmospheric variables most frequently used in RCM studies.

Published
2020
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8. Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models

Author

Marco Turco, Juan José Rosa-Cánovas, Joaquín Bedia, Sonia Jerez, Juan Pedro Montávez, Maria Carmen Llasat, and Antonello Provenzale

Subjects
Science
Abstract

A warmer and drier climate will affect wildfire activity but the climate-fire relationship could change under warming. Here the authors use models with a non-stationary climate-fire relationship to show that to avoid doubling the burned area in the coming decades we must stay below 1.5 °C Paris target.

Published
2018
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9. Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions

Author

Marco Turco, Sonia Jerez, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, and Antonello Provenzale

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Societal exposure to large fires has been increasing in recent years and fire forecasting is required for fire management strategies. Here the authors use seasonal climate models to provide skilful predictions of global fire activity.

Published
2018
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10. Inter-annual and decadal changes in teleconnections drive continental-scale synchronization of tree reproduction

Author

Davide Ascoli, Giorgio Vacchiano, Marco Turco, Marco Conedera, Igor Drobyshev, Janet Maringer, Renzo Motta, and Andrew Hacket-Pain

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Climate oscillations affect weather on different temporal-spatial scales, which poses difficulty in understanding how they influence tree reproduction. Here Ascoli et al. show relationships between low- and high-frequency components of the NAO and masting in two European tree species across multiple decades.

Published
2017
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11. Proceedings of the 23rd Paediatric Rheumatology European Society Congress: part two

Author

Olga Lomakina, Ekaterina Alekseeva, Sania Valieva, Tatiana Bzarova, Irina Nikishina, Elena Zholobova, Svetlana Rodionovskaya, Maria Kaleda, Yasuo Nakagishi, Masaki Shimizu, Mao Mizuta, Akihiro Yachie, Yuko Sugita, Nami Okamoto, Kousuke Shabana, Takuji Murata, Hiroshi Tamai, Eve M. Smith, Peng Yin, Andrea L. Jorgensen, Michael W. Beresford, on behalf of On behalf of the UK JSLE Cohort Study, Antonio Eleuteri, Beatrice Goilav, Laura Lewandowski, Angel Phuti, Dawn Wahezi, Tamar Rubinstein, Caroline Jones, Paul Newland, Stephen Marks, Rachel Corkhill, Diana Ekdawy, Clarissa Pilkington, Kjell Tullus, Chaim Putterman, Chris Scott, Antony C. Fisher, Andrea Jorgensen, Ezgi Deniz Batu, Can Kosukcu, Ekim Taskiran, Sema Akman, Kubra Ozturk, Betul Sozeri, Erbil Unsal, Zelal Ekinci, Yelda Bilginer, Mehmet Alikasifoglu, Seza Ozen, Hanna Lythgoe, Hermine I. Brunner, Gaurav Gulati, Jordan T. Jones, Mekibib Altaye, Jamie Eaton, Mark Difrancesco, Joo Guan Yeo, Jingyao Leong, Loshinidevi D/O Thana Bathi, Thaschawee Arkachaisri, Salvatore Albani, Nagla Abdelrahman, Michael W Beresford, Valentina Leone, UK JSLE study group supported by the National Institute of Health Research Clinical Research Network, Noortje Groot, D. Shaikhani, I. E. M. Bultink, M. Bijl, R. J. E. M. Dolhain, Y. K. O. Teng, E. Zirkzee, K. de Leeuw, R. Fritsch-Stork, S. S. M. Kamphuis, Rachael D. Wright, Reem Abdawani, Laila Al Shaqshi, Ibrahim Al Zakwani, Natali W. Gormezano, David Kern, Oriany L. Pereira, Gladys C. C. Esteves, Adriana M. Sallum, Nadia E. Aikawa, Rosa M. Pereira, Clovis A. Silva, Eloisa Bonfa, Jessica Beckmann, Nora Bartholomä, Nils Venhoff, Philipp Henneke, Ulrich Salzer, Ales Janda, Alina Lucica Boteanu, Sandra Garrote Corral, Alberto Sifuentes Giraldo, Mariluz Gámir Gámir, Antonio Zea Mendoza, Amra Adrovic, Reyhan Dedeoglu, Sezgin Sahin, Kenan Barut, Aida Koka, Funda Oztunc, Ozgur Kasapcopur, Ana Luisa Rodriguez-Lozano, Francisco Rivas-Larrauri, Silvestre García de la Puente, Andressa G. F. Alves, Maria F. D. A. Giacomin, Juliana Farhat, Alfésio L. F. Braga, Adriana M. E. Sallum, Lúcia M. D. A. Campos, Luiz A. A. Pereira, Ana J. D. F. C. Lichtenfels, Clóvis A. Silva, Sylvia C. L. Farhat, Banu Acar, Z. Birsin Ozcakar, Nilgün Çakar, Nermin Uncu, Gökçe Gür, Semanur Özdel, Fatoş Yalçınkaya, Christiaan Scott, Nicky Brice, Peter Nourse, Christine Arango, Angela C. Mosquera, Clara Malagon, Ana P. Sakamoto, Marco F. C. D. Silva, Ananadreia S. Lopes, Gleice C. S. Russo, Adriana E. M. Sallum, Katia Kozu, Eloisa Bonfá, Claudia Saad-Magalhães, Rosa M. R. Pereira, Claudio A. Len, Maria T. Terreri, Deepti Suri, Siyaram Didel, Amit Rawat, Surjit Singh, Despoina Maritsi, MArgarita Onoufriou, Olga Vougiouka, Maria Tsolia, Edi Paleka Bosak, Mandica Vidović, Mirta Lamot, Lovro Lamot, Miroslav Harjaček, Erika Van Nieuwenhove, Adrian Liston, Carine Wouters, Fatemeh Tahghighi, Vahid Ziaee, Seid-Reza Raeeskarami, Francisca Aguiar, Sandra Pereira, Mariana Rodrigues, Cláudia Moura, Gustavo Rocha, Hercília Guimarães, Iva Brito, Rita Fonseca, Gerd Horneff, Ariane Klein, Kirsten Minden, Hans-Iko Huppertz, Frank Weller-Heinemann, Jasmin Kuemmerle-Deschner, J-Peter Haas, Anton Hospach, BIKER collaborative group, Ricardo Menendez-Castro, Boris Huegle, Johannes-Peter Haas, Joost Swart, Gabriella Giancane, Francesca Bovis, Elio Castagnola, Andreas Groll, Daniel J. Lovell, Tom Wolfs, Michael Hofer, Violeta Panaviene, Susan Nielsen, Jordi Anton, Florence Uettwiller, Valda Stanevicha, Maria Trachana, Denise Pires Marafon, Constantin Ailioaie, Elena Tsitsami, Sylvia Kamphuis, Troels Herlin, Pavla Doležalová, Gordana Susic, Berit Flatø, Flavio Sztajnbok, Angela Pistorio, Alberto Martini, Nico Wulffraat, Nicolino Ruperto, Marco Gattorno, Antonio Brucato, Martina Finetti, George Lazaros, Silvia Maestroni, Mara Carraro, Davide Cumetti, Alessandra Carobbio, Monia Lorini, Alessandro Rimini, Renzo Marcolongo, Anna Valenti, Gian Luca Erre, Riccardo Belli, Fiorenzo Gaita, Maria Pia Sormani, Massimo Imazio, Mario Abinun, Nicola Smith, Tim Rapley, Flora McErlane, Lianne Kearsley-Fleet, Kimme L. Hyrich, Helen Foster, Nikolay Tzaribachev, Andrew Zeft, Rolando Cimaz, John Bohnsack, Thomas Griffin, Ruy Carrasco, Jason Dare, Ivan Foeldvari, Richard Vehe, Teresa Simon, Hermine Brunner, S. Verazza, S. Davì, A. Consolaro, A. Insalaco, V. Gerloni, R. Cimaz, F. Zulian, S. Pastore, F. Corona, G. Conti, P. Barone, M. Cattalini, E. Cortis, L. Breda, A. N. Olivieri, A. Civino, R. Podda, D. Rigante, F. La Torre, G. D’Angelo, M. Jorini, R. Gallizzi, M. C. Maggio, R. Consolini, A. De Fanti, M. G. Alpigiani, A. Martini, A. Ravelli, on behalf of Italian Pediatric Rheumatology Study Group, Aysenur Pac Kısaarslan, Zubeyde Gunduz, Ruhan Dusunsel, Ismail Dursun, Hakan Poyrazoglu, Ekaterina Kuchinskaya, Farida Abduragimova, Mikhail Kostik, Erik Sundberg, Soley Omarsdottir, Lena Klevenvall, Helena Erlandsson-Harris, Gokalp Basbozkurt, Ozge Erdemli, Dogan Simsek, Fatih Yazici, Yildirim Karsioglu, Aysen Tezcaner, Dilek Keskin, Huseyin Ozkan, Cengizhan Acikel, Erkan Demirkaya, Ilonka Orbán, Krisztina Sevcic, Valentin Brodszky, Emese Kiss, Ismaiel A. Tekko, Madeleine Rooney, James McElnay, Cliff Taggart, Helen McCarthy, Ryan F. Donnelly, Drug Delivery Group, Mary Slatter, Zohreh Nademi, Mark Friswell, Sharmila Jandial, Terence Flood, Sophie Hambleton, Andrew Gennery, Andrew Cant, Phoi-Ngoc Duong, Isabelle Koné-Paut, Giovanni Filocamo, María Luz Gamir, Helga Sanner, Laura Carenini, Mesut Topdemir, Yildirim Karslioglu, Faysal Gok, Nadezhda Tsurikova, Elena Ligostaeva, Navdha R. Ramchurn, O. Kostareva, I. Nikishina, S. Arsenyeva, S. Rodionovskaya, M. Kaleda, D. Alexeev, Ismail Dursun Dursun, Sara Murias, Estefania Barral, Rosa Alcobendas, Eugenia Enriquez, Agustin Remesal, Jaime de Inocencio, Tania M. Castro, Simone A. Lotufo, Tatjana Freye, Raffaella Carlomagno, Thomas Zumbrunn, Jan Bonhoeffer, Elvira Cannizzaro Schneider, Daniela Kaiser, Michaël Hofer, Véronique Hentgen, Andreas Woerner, Juvenile Inflammatory Rheumatism (JIR) Cohort, Tobias Schwarz, Jens Klotsche, Martina Niewerth, Gerd Ganser, ICON study group, Jerold Jeyaratnam, Nienke ter Haar, Donato Rigante, Fatma Dedeoglu, Ezgi Baris, Sebastiaan Vastert, Joost Frenkel, Jonathan S. Hausmann, Kathleen G. Lomax, Ari Shapiro, Karen L. Durrant, P. A. Brogan, M. Hofer, J. B. Kuemmerle-Deschner, B. Lauwerys, A. Speziale, K. Leon, X. Wei, R. M. Laxer, Sara Signa, Marta Rusmini, Elena Campione, Sabrina Chiesa, Alice Grossi, Alessia Omenetti, Roberta Caorsi, Gianmaria Viglizzo, Isabella Ceccherini, Silvia Federici, Helen Lachmann, Nicola Ruperto, on behalf of PRINTO and Eurofever Registry, Federica Vanoni, on behalf of PRINTO and Eurofever Project, Sonia Melo Gomes, Ebun Omoyinmi, Juan I. Arostegui, Eva Gonzalez-Roca, Despina Eleftheriou, Nigel Klein, Paul Brogan, Stefano Volpi, Elettra Santori, Paolo Picco, Claudia Pastorino, Gillian Rice, Alessandra Tesser, Yanick Crow, Fabio Candotti, Ada B. Sinoplu, Gozde Yucel, Gizem Pamuk, Laura O. Damian, Cecilia Lazea, Mihaela Sparchez, Paulina Vele, Laura Muntean, Adriana Albu, Simona Rednic, Calin Lazar, Leonardo O. Mendonça, Alessandra Pontillo, Jorge Kalil, Fabio M. Castro, Myrthes T. Barros, Manuela Pardeo, Virginia Messia, Fabrizio De Benedetti, Antonella Insalaco, Giorgia Malighetti, Chiara Gorio, Francesca Ricci, Ilaria Parissenti, Paola Montesano, Barbara Bonafini, Veronica Medeghini, Marco Cattalini, Lucio Giordano, Giulia Zani, Rosalba Ferraro, Donatella Vairo, Silvia Giliani, Maria Cristina Maggio, Girolamo Luppino, Giovanni Corsello, Maria Isabel Gonzalez Fernandez, Berta Lopez Montesinos, Adriana Rodriguez Vidal, Juan I. Arostegui Gorospe, Inmaculada Calvo Penades, Nadia K. Rafiq, Karen Wynne, Khalid Hussain, Paul A. Brogan, Elizabeth Ang, Nicholas Ng, Ayla Kacar, Ozge Altug Gucenmez, Balahan Makay, Sevket Erbil Unsal, Yasin Sahin, Tufan Kutlu, Fugen Cullu-Cokugras, Hasret Ayyildiz-Civan, Tulay Erkan, Sana Al Zuhbi, Eiman Abdalla, Ricardo A. Russo, María M. Katsicas, Francesca Minoia, Angelo Ravelli, Sagar Bhattad, Anju Gupta, Vignesh Pandiarajan, Ritambhra Nada, Kaara Tiewsoh, Philip Hawkins, Dorota Rowczenio, Sarka Fingerhutova, Jana Franova, Leona Prochazkova, Eva Hlavackova, Pavla Dolezalova, Havva Evrengül, Selçuk Yüksel, Mustafa Doğan, Dolunay Gürses, Harun Evrengül, Silvia De Pauli, Serena Pastore, Anna Monica Bianco, Giovanni Maria Severini, Andrea Taddio, Alberto Tommasini, Svetlana O. Salugina, Evgeny Fedorov, Elena Kamenets, Ekaterina Zaharova, Tatiana Sleptsova, Ekaterina Alexeeva, Kirill Savostyanov, Alexander Pushkov, Tatyana Bzarova, Saniya Valieva, Rina Denisova, Kseniya Isayeva, Evgeniya Chistyakova, Margarita Soloshenko, Elena Kaschenko, Utako Kaneko, Chihaya Imai, Akihiko Saitoh, Vitor A. Teixeira, Filipa O. Ramos, Manuela Costa, Yonatan Butbul Aviel, Shafe Fahoum, Riva Brik, Zeynep Birsin Özçakar, Banu Acar Celikel, Fatos Yalcinkaya, Benedetta Schiappapietra, Sergio Davi’, Federica Mongini, Luisa Giannone, Cecilia Bava, Maria Giannina Alpigiani, Alessandro Consolaro, Dragana S. Lazarevic, Jelena Vojinovic, Jelena Basic, Valentina Muratore, Valentina Marzetti, Neus Quilis, Belen Serrano Benavente, Alessandra Alongi, Adele Civino, Lorenzo Quartulli, Giedre Januskeviciute, Pieter van Dijkhuizen, N. Groot, W. van Dijk, A. Kardolus, Raul Gutiérrez Suárez, Ellen B. Nordal, Veronika G. Rypdal, Lillemor Berntson, Maria Ekelund, Kristiina Aalto, Suvi Peltoniemi, Marek Zak, Mia Glerup, Ellen D. Arnstad, Anders Fasth, Marite Rygg, the Nordic Study Group of Pediatric Rheumatology (NoSPeR), Ana Catarina Duarte, Sandra Sousa, Lídia Teixeira, Ana Cordeiro, Mª José Santos, Ana Filipa Mourão, Maria José Santos, Mónica Eusébio, Ana Lopes, Filipa Oliveira-Ramos, Manuel Salgado, Paula Estanqueiro, José Melo-Gomes, Fernando Martins, José Costa, Carolina Furtado, Ricardo Figueira, Jaime C. Branco, João E. Fonseca, Helena Canhão, Ana F. Mourão, Maria Jose Santos, Andrea Coda, Samuel Cassidy, Kerry West, Gordon Hendry, Debra Grech, Julie Jones, Fiona Hawke, Davinder Singh Grewal, Charlene Foley, Orla Killeen, Emma MacDermott, Douglas Veale, Ursula Fearon, Dilek Konukbay, Ela Tarakci, Nilay Arman, Sezgin Şahin, Jane Munro, Esi Morgan, Meredith Riebschleger, Jennifer Horonjeff, Vibeke Strand, Clifton Bingham, Ma. Theresa M. Collante, Margarita Ganeva, Stefan Stefanov, Albena Telcharova, Dimitrina Mihaylova, Radoslava Saraeva, Reni Tzveova, Radka Kaneva, Adelina Tsakova, Katya Temelkova, GRANT Medical University, Sofia 68/, Maria Mercedes C. Picarelli, Luiz C. Danzmann, Florencia Barbé-Tuana, Lucas K. Grun, Marcus H. Jones, Marijan Frković, Karla Ištuk, Ika Birkić, Saša Sršen, Marija Jelušić, Alan Easton, Rachael Quarmby, Raju Khubchandani, Mercedes Chan, Radoslav Srp, Katerina Kobrova, Dana Nemcova, Jozef Hoza, Michal Uher, Melania Saifridova, Lenka Linkova, Sirirat Charuvanij, Isree Leelayuwattanakul, Thita Pacharapakornpong, Sakda A.-O. Vallipakorn, Butsabong Lerkvaleekul, Soamarat Vilaiyuk, Stefano Lanni, Sergio Davì, Randy Q. Cron, Chiara Passarelli, Elisa Pisaneschi, Antonio Novelli, Claudia Bracaglia, Ivan Caiello, Kathy de Graaf, Florence Guilhot, Walter Ferlin, Grant Schulert, Alexi A. Grom, Robert Nelson, Cristina de Min, Dirk Holzinger, Christoph Kessel, Ndate Fall, Alexei Grom, Wilco de Jager, Raffaele Strippoli, Anna Horne, Stephan Ehl, Sandra Ammann, Kai Lehmberg, Karin Beutel, Dirk Foell, AnnaCarin Horne, Laura Pagani, Graciela Espada, Yi-jin Gao, Susan Shenoi, Sheila Weitzman, Giusi Prencipe, Antonia Pascarella, Walter G. Ferlin, Laurence Chatel, Philippe Jacqmin, Kathy De Graaf, Maria Ballabio, Zoë Johnson, Geneviève Lapeyre, Fabrizio de Benedetti, de Min Cristina, Hiroyuki Wakiguchi, Shunji Hasegawa, Reiji Hirano, Fumiko Okazaki, Tamaki Nakamura, Hidenobu Kaneyasu, Shouichi Ohga, Kazuko Yamazaki, Tomo Nozawa, Taichi Kanetaka, Shuichi Ito, Shumpei Yokota, Kirsty McLellan, Ishbel MacGregor, Neil Martin, Joyce Davidson, Sandra Hansmann, Andreas Eikelberg, Iris Haug, Sabrina Schuller, Susanne M. Benseler, Single Hub and Access point for paediatric Rheumatology in Europe (SHARE), Liliia S. Nazarova, Kseniia V. Danilko, Viktor A. Malievsky, Tatiana V. Viktorova, Angela Mauro, Angela Barnicoat, Jane Hurst, Nathalie Canham, Sandrine Lacassagne, Anastasia Wiener, Boris Hügle, Bernd Denecke, Ivan Costa-Filho, Johannes Peter Haas, Klaus Tenbrock, David Popp, Arjan Boltjes, Frank Rühle, Stefanie Herresthal, Femke van Wijk, Joachim Schultze, Monika Stoll, Luisa Klotz, Thomas Vogl, Johannes Roth, Estefania Quesada-Masachs, Daniel Álvarez de la Sierra, Marina Garcia Prat, Ana M. Marín Sánchez, Ricardo Pujol Borrell, Sara Marsal Barril, Mónica Martínez Gallo, Consuelo Modesto Caballero, Iryna Chyzheuskaya, Lyudmyla M. Byelyaeva, Rostislav M. Filonovich, Helena K. Khrustaleva, Larisa I. Zajtseva, Tamara M. Yuraga, Thomas Giner, Lukas Hackl, Julia Albrecht, Reinhard Würzner, Juergen Brunner, Marta Minute, Fulvio Parentin, Agostino Nocerino, Mette Nørgaard, Mikel Alberdi-Saugstrup, Marek S. Zak, Susan M. Nielsen, Ellen Nordal, Klaus G. Müller, Nordic Study Group of Pediatric Rheumatology (NoSPeR), Mojca Zajc Avramovič, Vita Dolžan, Nataša Toplak, Tadej Avčin, N. Ruperto, D. J. Lovell, C. Wallace, M. Toth, I. Foeldvari, J. Bohnsack, D. Milojevic, C. Rabinovich, D. Kingsbury, K. Marzan, P. Quartier, K. Minden, E. Chalom, G. Horneff, R. M. Kuester, J. Dare, M. Heinrich, H. Kupper, J. Kalabic, H. I. Brunner, on behalf of PRINTO and PRCSG, Ruben Burgos-Vargas, Tamas Constantin, Joke Dehoorne, Valda Stanevica, Katarzyna Kobusinska, Zbigniew Zuber, Richard Mouy, Ingrida Rumba-Rozenfelde, Chantal Job-Deslandre, Ronald Pederson, Jack Bukowski, Tina Hinnershitz, Bonnie Vlahos, Paula Keskitalo, Salla Kangas, Paula Vähäsalo, Raul A. Chavez Valencia, David Martino, Anne-Louise Ponsonby, Rachel Chiaroni-Clarke, Braydon Meyer, Roger C. Allen, Jonathan D. Akikusa, Jeffrey M. Craig, Richard Saffrey, Justine A. Ellis, Carol Wallace, Yosef Uziel, Gary Sterba, Rayfel Schneider, Ricardo Russo, Athimalaipet V. Ramanan, Jana Pachlopnik Schmid, Kim E Nichols, Paivi Miettunen, Toshiyuki Kitoh, Norman T. Ilowite, Jan-Inge Henter, Alexei A Grom, Edward M. Behrens, Tadej Avcin, Maurizio Aricò, Sriharsha Grevich, Peggy Lee, Sarah Ringold, Brian Leroux, Hannah Leahey, Megan Yuasa, Jessica Foster, Jeremy Sokolove, Lauren Lahey, William Robinson, Joshua Newson, Anne Stevens, Stephanie J. W. Shoop, Suzanne M. M. Verstappen, Wendy Thomson, Janet E. McDonagh, CAPS, Timothy Beukelman, Yuki Kimura, Marc Natter, Norm Ilowite, Kelly Mieszkalski, Grendel Burrell, Brian Best, Helen Bristow, Shannon Carr, Anne Dennos, Rachel Kaufmann, Laura Schanberg, for the CARRA Registry Investigators, Gabriele Simonini, Francesca Lancini, Margaux Gerbaux, Phu-Quoc Lê, Laurence Goffin, Valérie Badot, Céline La, Laure Caspers, François Willermain, Alina Ferster, Maria Ceci, Francesco Licciardi, Marco Turco, Francesca Santarelli, Davide Montin, Claudia Toppino, Clotilde Alizzi, Bruno Papia, Beatrice Vergara, Umberto Corpora, Luca Messina, Maria Tsinti, Vasiliko Dermentzoglou, Panagiotis Tziavas, Marija Perica, Lana Tambić Bukovac, Mustafa Çakan, Nuray Aktay Ayaz, Gonca Keskindemirci, Michael Lang, Catherine Laing, Susanne Benseler, Tommy Gerschman, Nadia Luca, Heinrike Schmeling, Anastasia Dropol, Jaymi Taiani, Nicole Johnson, Brian Rusted, Panagiota Nalbanti, Polyxeni Pratsidou, Grigoris Pardalos, Vasiliki Tzimouli, Anna Taparkou, Maria Stavrakidou, Fotios Papachristou, Florence Kanakoudi-Tsakalidou, Peter Bale, Emily Robinson, Jason Palman, Elizabeth Ralph, Kimberly Gilmour, Clare Heard, Lucy R. Wedderburn, Yara Barrense-Dias, Antonarakis Gregory, Dhouib Amira, Scolozzi Paolo, Hanquinet Sylviane, Hofer Michaël, Nataliya Panko, Salah Shokry, Liudmila Rakovska, Sally Pino, Adriana Diaz-Maldonado, Pilar Guarnizo, Sofia Torreggiani, Paolo Cressoni, Umberto Garagiola, Giancarla Di Landro, Giampietro Farronato, Fabrizia Corona, Samantha Bell, Parveen Bhatti, Lee Nelson, Beth A. Mueller, T. A. Simon, A. Baheti, N. Ray, Z. Guo, Anasuya Hazra, Thomas Stock, Ronnie Wang, Charles Mebus, Christine Alvey, Manisha Lamba, Sriram Krishnaswami, Umberto Conte, Min Wang, Daniel Kingsbury, Elena Koskova, Elzbieta Smolewska, Richard K. Vehe, Daniel Lovell, Tomohiro Kubota, Junko Yasumura, Toshitaka Kizawa, Masato Yashiro, Tsuyoshi Yamatou, Yuichi Yamasaki, Syuji Takei, Yoshifumi Kawano, Ulrika Järpemo Nykvist, Bo Magnusson, Rikard Wicksell, Karin Palmblad, Gunnar L. Olsson, Mohammadreza Modaressi, Mohammad-Hassan Moradinejad, Valentina Seraya, Alisa Vitebskaya, Veronica Moshe, Gil Amarilyo, Liora Harel, Phillip J Hashkes, Amir Mendelson, Noa Rabinowicz, Yonit Reis, Zane Dāvidsone, Arina Lazareva, Ruta Šantere, Dace Bērziņa, Valda Staņēviča, Giulia Camilla Varnier, Susan Maillard, Cristina Ferrari, Silvia Zaffarano, Juvenile Dermatomyositis Research Group and European Federation of Immunological Societies, Judith Wienke, Felicitas Bellutti Enders, Lucas L. van den Hoogen, Jorre S. Mertens, Timothy R. Radstake, Henny G. Hotten, Ruth Fritsch, Lucy Wedderburn, Kiran Nistala, Berent Prakken, Annet van Royen-Kerkhof, Mohammad Alhemairi, Mohammed Muzaffer, Pieter Van Dijkhuizen, Claire T. Deakin, Stefania Simou, Maria De Iorio, Qiong Wu, Tania Amin, Lee Dossetter, Juvenile Dermatomyositis Research Group (JDRG), Raquel Campanilho-Marques, Claire Deakin, Clarissa A. Pilkington, on behalf of Juvenile Dermatomyositis Research Group (JDRG), Silvia Rosina, Sirisucha Soponkanaporn, on behalf of the UK Juvenile Dermatomyositis Research Group (JDRG), Zehra S. Arıcı, Gökçen D. Tuğcu, Ezgi D. Batu, Hafize E. Sönmez, Deniz Doğru-Ersöz, Beril Talim, Nural Kiper, Seza Özen, Alexander Solyom, Ezgi Batu, John Mitchell, Ariana Kariminejad, Fatemeh Hadipour, Zahra Hadipour, Marta Torcoletti, Carlo Agostoni, Maja Di Rocco, Pranoot Tanpaiboon, Andrea Superti-Furga, Luisa Bonafé, Nur Arslan, Norberto Guelbert, Karoline Ehlert, Giedre Grigelioniene, Ratna Puri, Edward Schuchman, Pilar Gomez, Tatiana Gonzalez, Ricardo Yepez, Camilo Vargas, GRIP study group, Falcini Fernanda, Gemma Lepri, Alessandra Ferrari, Marco Matucci-Cerinic, Antonella Meini, Gian Marco Moneta, Emiliano Marasco, Rebecca Nicolai, Luisa Bracci-Laudiero, Olga Kopchak, Alexander Mushkin, Alexey Maletin, Catalina Mosquera, Rita A. Amorim, Juliana Molina, Gustavo Moreira, Flávia H. Santos, Melissa Fraga, Livia Keppeke, Vanessa M. Silva, Camila Hirotsu, Sergio Tufik, Maria Teresa Terreri, Vinícius L. Braga, Maria Beatriz Fonseca, Vania Schinzel, Maria Teresa R. Terreri, Liliana Jorge, Liana Guerra, Edson Amaro Junior, Maria Cristina Castiglione, Alessandra Tricarico, Emily Boulter, Andre Schultz, Kevin Murray, Fernanda Falcini, Stefano Stagi, Eleonora Bellucci, Ingrid H. R. Grein, Gecilmara Pileggi, Natália B. F. Pinto, Aline L. de Oliveira, Lyudmila Belyaeva, Rostislav Filonovich, Helena Khrustaleva, Larisa Zajtseva, Jaanika Ilisson, Chris Pruunsild, Olivier Gilliaux, Francis Corazza, Christophe Lelubre, on behalf of PANLAR Pediatric Rheumatology Study Group, Zoilo Morel, Claudia Saad-Magalhães C, Luis Lira, Mabel Ladino, Ruth Eraso, Ivonne Arroyo, Clovis Silva, Carlos Rose, and PANLAR Pediatric Rheumatology Study Group

Subjects
Pediatrics, RJ1-570, Diseases of the musculoskeletal system, RC925-935
Published
2017
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12. On the key role of droughts in the dynamics of summer fires in Mediterranean Europe

Author

Marco Turco, Jost von Hardenberg, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello Provenzale, and Ricardo M. Trigo

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

Abstract Summer fires frequently rage across Mediterranean Europe, often intensified by high temperatures and droughts. According to the state-of-the-art regional fire risk projections, in forthcoming decades climate effects are expected to become stronger and possibly overcome fire prevention efforts. However, significant uncertainties exist and the direct effect of climate change in regulating fuel moisture (e.g. warmer conditions increasing fuel dryness) could be counterbalanced by the indirect effects on fuel structure (e.g. warmer conditions limiting fuel amount), affecting the transition between climate-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes as temperatures increase. Here we analyse and model the impact of coincident drought and antecedent wet conditions (proxy for the climatic factor influencing total fuel and fine fuel structure) on the summer Burned Area (BA) across all eco-regions in Mediterranean Europe. This approach allows BA to be linked to the key drivers of fire in the region. We show a statistically significant relationship between fire and same-summer droughts in most regions, while antecedent climate conditions play a relatively minor role, except in few specific eco-regions. The presented models for individual eco-regions provide insights on the impacts of climate variability on BA, and appear to be promising for developing a seasonal forecast system supporting fire management strategies.

Published
2017
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13. Decreasing Fires in Mediterranean Europe.

Author

Marco Turco, Joaquín Bedia, Fabrizio Di Liberto, Paolo Fiorucci, Jost von Hardenberg, Nikos Koutsias, Maria-Carmen Llasat, Fotios Xystrakis, and Antonello Provenzale

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

Forest fires are a serious environmental hazard in southern Europe. Quantitative assessment of recent trends in fire statistics is important for assessing the possible shifts induced by climate and other environmental/socioeconomic changes in this area. Here we analyse recent fire trends in Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece, building on a homogenized fire database integrating official fire statistics provided by several national/EU agencies. During the period 1985-2011, the total annual burned area (BA) displayed a general decreasing trend, with the exception of Portugal, where a heterogeneous signal was found. Considering all countries globally, we found that BA decreased by about 3020 km2 over the 27-year-long study period (i.e. about -66% of the mean historical value). These results are consistent with those obtained on longer time scales when data were available, also yielding predominantly negative trends in Spain and France (1974-2011) and a mixed trend in Portugal (1980-2011). Similar overall results were found for the annual number of fires (NF), which globally decreased by about 12600 in the study period (about -59%), except for Spain where, excluding the provinces along the Mediterranean coast, an upward trend was found for the longer period. We argue that the negative trends can be explained, at least in part, by an increased effort in fire management and prevention after the big fires of the 1980's, while positive trends may be related to recent socioeconomic transformations leading to more hazardous landscape configurations, as well as to the observed warming of recent decades. We stress the importance of fire data homogenization prior to analysis, in order to alleviate spurious effects associated with non-stationarities in the data due to temporal variations in fire detection efforts.

Published
2016
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14. Summer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts

Author

Marco Turco, Andrej Ceglar, Chloé Prodhomme, Albert Soret, Andrea Toreti, and J Doblas-Reyes Francisco

Subjects
drought, seasonal forecasts, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, TD1-1066, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, Science, Physics, QC1-999
Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts could be an important planning tool for farmers, government and insurance companies that can lead to better and timely management of seasonal climate risks. However, climate seasonal forecasts are often under-used, because potential users are not well aware of the capabilities and limitations of these products. This study aims at assessing the merits and caveats of a statistical empirical method, the ensemble streamflow prediction system (ESP, an ensemble based on reordering historical data) and an operational dynamical forecast system, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—System 4 (S4) in predicting summer drought in Europe. Droughts are defined using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for the month of August integrated over 6 months. Both systems show useful and mostly comparable deterministic skill. We argue that this source of predictability is mostly attributable to the observed initial conditions. S4 shows only higher skill in terms of ability to probabilistically identify drought occurrence. Thus, currently, both approaches provide useful information and ESP represents a computationally fast alternative to dynamical prediction applications for drought prediction.

Published
2017
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