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BackgroundDisability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of the probability of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking.MethodsData of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. Transparent Reporting for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines were followed. Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expanded disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course. To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated with the area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error. All our preprocessing and model code are available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS.FindingsMachine learning models achieved a ROC-AUC of 0⋅71 ± 0⋅01, an AUC-PR of 0⋅26 ± 0⋅02, a Brier score of 0⋅1 ± 0⋅01 and an expected calibration error of 0⋅07 ± 0⋅04. The history of disability progression was identified as being more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses history.ConclusionsGood discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation set is achieved, using only routinely collected variables. This suggests machine-learning models can reliably inform clinicians about the future occurrence of progression and are mature for a clinical impact study.

Background: Aggressive disease control soon after multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnosis may prevent irreversible neurological damage, and therefore early initiation of a high-efficacy disease-modifying therapy (DMT) is of clinical relevance. Objectives: Evaluate long-term clinical outcomes in patients with MS who initiated treatment with either natalizumab or a BRACETD therapy (interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, teriflunomide, or dimethyl fumarate). Design: This retrospective analysis utilized data from MSBase to create a matched population allowing comparison of first-line natalizumab to first-line BRACETD. Methods: This study included patients who initiated treatment either with natalizumab or a BRACETD DMT within 1 year of MS diagnosis and continued treatment for ⩾6 months, after which patients could switch DMTs or discontinue treatment. Patients had a minimum follow-up time of ⩾60 months from initiation. A subgroup analysis compared the natalizumab group to patients in the BRACETD group who escalated therapy after 6 months. Outcomes included unadjusted annualized relapse rates (ARRs), time-to-first relapse, time-to-first confirmed disability improvement (CDI), and time-to-first confirmed disability worsening (CDW). Results: After 1:1 propensity score matching, 355 BRACETD patients were matched to 355 natalizumab patients. Patients initiating natalizumab were less likely to experience a relapse over the duration of follow-up, with ARRs [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.080 (0.070–0.092) for natalizumab patients and 0.191 (0.178–0.205) for BRACETD patients ( p

BackgroundTreatment switching is a common challenge and opportunity in real-world clinical practice. Increasing diversity in disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) has generated interest in the identification of reliable and robust predictors of treatment switching across different countries, DMTs, and time periods.ObjectiveThe objective of this retrospective, observational study was to identify independent predictors of treatment switching in a population of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network of national clinical registries, including the Italian MS registry, the OFSEP of France, the Danish MS registry, the Swedish national MS registry, and the international MSBase Registry.MethodsIn this cohort study, we merged information on 269,822 treatment episodes in 110,326 patients from 1997 to 2018 from five clinical registries. Patients were included in the final pooled analysis set if they had initiated at least one DMT during the relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) stage. Patients not diagnosed with RRMS or RRMS patients not initiating DMT therapy during the RRMS phase were excluded from the analysis. The primary study outcome was treatment switching. A multilevel mixed-effects shared frailty time-to-event model was used to identify independent predictors of treatment switching. The contributing MS registry was included in the pooled analysis as a random effect.ResultsEvery one-point increase in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at treatment start was associated with 1.08 times the rate of subsequent switching, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar year (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.08; 95% CI 1.07–1.08). Women were associated with 1.11 times the rate of switching relative to men (95% CI 1.08–1.14), whilst older age was also associated with an increased rate of treatment switching. DMTs started between 2007 and 2012 were associated with 2.48 times the rate of switching relative to DMTs that began between 1996 and 2006 (aHR 2.48; 95% CI 2.48–2.56). DMTs started from 2013 onwards were more likely to switch relative to the earlier treatment epoch (aHR 8.09; 95% CI 7.79–8.41; reference = 1996–2006).ConclusionSwitching between DMTs is associated with female sex, age, and disability at baseline and has increased in frequency considerably in recent years as more treatment options have become available. Consideration of a patient's individual risk and tolerance profile needs to be taken into account when selecting the most appropriate switch therapy from an expanding array of treatment choices.

Abstract Objectives Pro‐ and anti‐inflammatory properties have been attributed to interleukin‐27 (IL‐27). Nevertheless, the impact of this cytokine on chronic inflammatory diseases such as multiple sclerosis (MS) remains ill‐defined. We investigated the biology of IL‐27 and its specific receptor IL‐27Rα in MS patients. Methods Levels of IL‐27 and its natural antagonist (IL‐27‐Rα) were measured by ELISA in biological fluids. CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes were isolated from untreated relapsing–remitting MS patients and healthy donors. Transcriptome‐wide analysis compared T‐cell subsets stimulated or not with IL‐27. Expression of the IL‐27Rα, key immune factors, STAT phosphorylation and cytokine production was assessed by flow cytometry. Results We observed elevated levels of IL‐27 in the serum and cerebrospinal fluid of MS patients compared with controls. Moreover, we show that specific IL‐27‐mediated effects on T lymphocytes are reduced in MS patients including the induction of PD‐L1. IL‐27‐triggered STAT3 signalling pathway is enhanced in CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes from MS patients. Elevated IL‐27Rα levels in serum from MS patients are sufficient to impair the capacity of IL‐27 to act on immune cells. We demonstrate that shedding of IL‐27Rα by activated CD4+ T lymphocytes from MS patients contributes to the increased IL‐27Rα peripheral levels and consequently can dampen the IL‐27 responsiveness. Conclusion Our work identifies several mechanisms that are altered in the IL‐27/IL‐27R axis in MS patients, especially in T lymphocytes. Our results underline the importance of characterising the biology of cytokines in human patients prior to design new therapeutics.

Multiple Sclerosis is more common in women than men and females have more relapses than men. In a large international cohort we have evaluated the effect of gender on disability accumulation and disease progression to determine if male MS patients have a worse clinical outcome than females.Using the MSBase Registry, data from 15,826 MS patients from 25 countries was analysed. Changes in the severity of MS (EDSS) were compared between sexes using a repeated measures analysis in generalised linear mixed models. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to test for sex difference in the time to reach EDSS milestones 3 and 6 and the secondary progressive MS.In relapse onset MS patients (n = 14,453), males progressed significantly faster in their EDSS than females (0.133 vs 0.112 per year, P

OBJECTIVES: We conducted a prospective study, MSBASIS, to assess factors leading to first treatment discontinuation in patients with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). METHODS: The MSBASIS Study, conducted by MSBase Study Group members, enrols patients seen from CIS onset, reporting baseline demographics, cerebral magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores. Follow-up visits report relapses, EDSS scores, and the start and end dates of MS-specific therapies. We performed a multivariable survival analysis to determine factors within this dataset that predict first treatment discontinuation. RESULTS: A total of 2314 CIS patients from 44 centres were followed for a median of 2.7 years, during which time 1247 commenced immunomodulatory drug (IMD) treatment. Ninety percent initiated IMD after a diagnosis of MS was confirmed, and 10% while still in CIS status. Over 40% of these patients stopped their first IMD during the observation period. Females were more likely to cease medication than males (HR 1.36, p = 0.003). Patients treated in Australia were twice as likely to cease their first IMD than patients treated in Spain (HR 1.98, p = 0.001). Increasing EDSS was associated with higher rate of IMD cessation (HR 1.21 per EDSS unit, p

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BACKGROUND:Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) patients are confronted with needs and concerns related to their disease. AIM:To explore information expectations of patients included in a national bilingual IBD cohort in Switzerland (SIBDC). METHODS:This is a mixed-methods study, comprising 1) a semi-narrative survey sent to 1506 patients from the SIBDC and 2) two focus groups conducted with 14 patients to explore and assess the relevance of the survey's findings. Data collected within the framework of the SIBDC was used to characterize survey's responders. RESULTS:728 patients (48%) replied to the survey: 52.5% females, 56% Crohn's disease (CD), 87% secondary/tertiary level educated, 70% full/part-time employed. On average, 47% of patients sought for information, regardless of the disease stage; 27% of them were dissatisfied with information received at the time of first symptoms. During flares, 43% were concerned about drugs and therapies; in remission, 57% had concerns on research and developments; 27% searched for information linked to daily disease management. Information-seeking increased when active disease, for CD with high levels of perceived stress (OR = 2.47; p = 0.003), and for all with higher posttraumatic stress symptoms. The focus groups confirmed a perceived lack of information about general functioning, disease course, treatments and their risks, extra-intestinal symptoms and manifestations. CONCLUSIONS:Information remains insufficient for IBD patients. Lack of information in specific domains can potentially cause stress and hinder detection of symptoms. Better information should be considered as a potentially important component in improving patients' outcomes in IBD.

Primary aortodigestive fistulas (PAFs) are a rare cause of gastrointestinal bleeding, with an incidence of 0.04–0.07% in autopsy series. The diagnosis of PAF is difficult and should be considered in patients with gastrointestinal hemorrhage of obscure origin. Because of its high mortality rate, clinical recognition of prodromal symptoms for early diagnosis is crucial for effective treatment. We report on the case of a 79-year-old patient with a PAF who was admitted for hematochezia and melena. The PAF was suspected during upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and confirmed by CT angiography.

Background and study aims: Upper gastrointestinal (UGI) bleeding is a frequent cause of hospitalization. Its severity may be assessed before endoscopy using the Glasgow-Blatchford Bleeding Score (GBS), a score validated to identify patients requiring clinical intervention. The aim of this study was to assess whether the GBS was effective for shortening hospital stay and reducing costs in patients with an UGI bleeding predicted at low risk of requiring clinical intervention. Patients and methods: Consecutive outpatients presenting with UGI bleeding at our hospital were prospectively included. In the observational study phase, UGI endoscopy was performed in all patients according to routine clinical practice. In the interventional study phase, patients with a GBS of 0 were discharged with an appointment for an outpatient UGI endoscopy. All patients had follow-up at 7 and 30 days. Need for clinical intervention was defined as performance of endoscopic hemostasis, blood transfusion or surgery. Results Two-hundred and eight patients were included, 104 in each study phase; complete follow-up was obtained in 201 patients. GBS varied from 0 to 18, with 15 (14 %) and 11 (11 %) patients having a GBS of 0 in the observational and interventional study phase, respectively. For patients with a GBS of 0, hospital stay was shorter (6 versus 19 h, P < 0.01), and costs were lower (845 EUR versus 1272 EUR, P = 0.002) in the interventional versus the observational study phase. For patients with a GBS > 0, hospital stay duration did not significantly differ between study phases (189 versus 207 h, P = 0.726). No adverse event was observed in the patients sent home with a GBS of 0 during the interventional study phase. Conclusions Implementing the GBS as a tool for triage of hospital outpatients who present with UGI bleeding allowed us to identify those who could safely be discharged for ambulatory management. Implementing this change in the hospital strategy significantly shortened hospital stay and decreased management costs.

With a rapidly aging global population and improvement of outcomes with newer multiple sclerosis (MS)-specific disease-modifying therapies (DMTs), the epidemiology of MS has shifted to an older than previously described population, with a peak prevalence of the disease seen in the 55–65 years age group. Changes in the pathophysiology of MS appear to be age-dependent. Several studies have identified a consistent phase of disability worsening around the fifth decade of life. The latter appears to be independent of prior disease duration and inflammatory activity and concomitant to pathological changes from acute focal active demyelination to chronic smoldering plaques, slow-expanding lesions, and compartmentalized inflammation within the central nervous system (CNS). On the other hand, decreased CNS tissue reserve and poorer remyelinating capacity with aging lead to loss of relapse recovery potential. Aging with MS may imply longer exposure to DMTs, although treatment efficacy in patients >55 years has not been evaluated in pivotal randomized controlled trials and appears to decrease with age. Older individuals are more prone to adverse effects of DMTs, an important aspect of treatment individualization. Aging with MS also implies a higher global burden of comorbid illnesses that contribute to overall impairments and represent a crucial confounder in interpreting clinical worsening. Discontinuation of DMTs after age 55, when no evidence of clinical or radiological activity is detected, is currently under the spotlight. In this review, we will discuss the impact of aging on MS pathobiology, the effect of comorbidities and other confounders on clinical worsening, and focus on current therapeutic considerations in this age group.

Abstract Background Interleukin-27 (IL-27) can trigger both pro- and anti-inflammatory responses. This cytokine is elevated in the central nervous system (CNS) of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients, but how it influences neuroinflammatory processes remains unclear. As astrocytes express the receptor for IL-27, we sought to determine how these glial cells respond to this cytokine and whether such exposure alters their interactions with infiltrating activated T lymphocytes. To determine whether inflammation shapes the impact of IL-27, we compared the effects of this cytokine in non-inflamed and inflamed conditions induced by an IL-1β exposure. Main body Transcriptomic analysis of IL-27-exposed human astrocytes showed an upregulation of multiple immune genes. Human astrocytes increased the secretion of chemokines (CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11) and the surface expression of proteins (PD-L1, HLA-E, and ICAM-1) following IL-27 exposure. To assess whether exposure of astrocytes to IL-27 influences the profile of activated T lymphocytes infiltrating the CNS, we used an astrocyte/T lymphocyte co-culture model. Activated human CD4+ or CD8+ T lymphocytes were co-cultured with astrocytes that have been either untreated or pre-exposed to IL‑27 or IL-1β. After 24 h, we analyzed T lymphocytes by flow cytometry for transcription factors and immune molecules. The contact with IL-27-exposed astrocytes increased the percentages of T-bet, Eomes, CD95, IL-18Rα, ICAM-1, and PD-L1 expressing CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes and reduced the proportion of CXCR3-positive CD8+ T lymphocytes. Human CD8+ T lymphocytes co-cultured with human IL-27-treated astrocytes exhibited higher motility than when in contact with untreated astrocytes. These results suggested a preponderance of kinapse-like over synapse-like interactions between CD8+ T lymphocytes and IL-27-treated astrocytes. Finally, CD8+ T lymphocytes from MS patients showed higher motility in contact with IL-27-exposed astrocytes compared to healthy donors’ cells. Conclusion Our results establish that IL-27 alters the immune functions of human astrocytes and shapes the profile and motility of encountered T lymphocytes, especially CD8+ T lymphocytes from MS patients.

Abstract Despite significant insights into the neural mechanisms of acute placebo responses, less is known about longer-term placebo responses, such as those seen in clinical trials, or their interactions with brain disease. We examined brain correlates of placebo responses in a randomized trial of a then controversial and now disproved endovascular treatment for multiple sclerosis. Patients received either balloon or sham extracranial venoplasty and were followed for 48 weeks. Venoplasty had no therapeutic effect, but a subset of both venoplasty- and sham-treated patients reported a transient improvement in health-related quality of life, suggesting a placebo response. Placebo responders did not differ from non-responders in total MRI T2 lesion load, count or location, nor were there differences in normalized brain volume, regional grey or white matter volume or cortical thickness (CT). However, responders had higher lesion activity. Graph theoretical analysis of CT covariance showed that non-responders had a more small-world-like CT architecture. In non-responders, lesion load was inversely associated with CT in somatosensory, motor and association areas, precuneus, and insula, primarily in the right hemisphere. In responders, lesion load was unrelated to CT. The neuropathological process in MS may produce in some a cortical configuration less capable of generating sustained placebo responses.