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Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here, we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997—2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection ynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Here Wraith et al. report homotypic protection from repeated influenza infection in a prospective pediatric cohort in Nicaragua followed for 9 years. This protection is observed across multiple seasons, subtypes, and lineages and is consistent for older and younger children.

Seasonal influenza vaccines must be updated regularly to account for mutations that allow influenza viruses to escape our existing immunity. A successful vaccine should represent the genetic diversity of recently circulating viruses and induce antibodies that effectively prevent infection by those recent viruses. Thus, linking the genetic composition of circulating viruses and the serological experimental results measuring antibody efficacy is crucial to the vaccine design decision. Historically, genetic and serological data have been presented separately in the form of static visualizations of phylogenetic trees and tabular serological results to identify vaccine candidates. To simplify this decision-making process, we have created an interactive tool for visualizing serological data that has been integrated into Nextstrain’s real-time phylogenetic visualization framework, Auspice. We show how the combined interactive visualizations may be used by decision makers to explore the relationships between complex data sets for both prospective vaccine virus selection and retrospectively exploring the performance of vaccine viruses.

Abstract Background The complex interspersed pattern of segmental duplications in humans is responsible for rearrangements associated with neurodevelopmental disease, including the emergence of novel genes important in human brain evolution. We investigate the evolution of LCR16a, a putative driver of this phenomenon that encodes one of the most rapidly evolving human–ape gene families, nuclear pore interacting protein (NPIP). Results Comparative analysis shows that LCR16a has independently expanded in five primate lineages over the last 35 million years of primate evolution. The expansions are associated with independent lineage-specific segmental duplications flanking LCR16a leading to the emergence of large interspersed duplication blocks at non-orthologous chromosomal locations in each primate lineage. The intron-exon structure of the NPIP gene family has changed dramatically throughout primate evolution with different branches showing characteristic gene models yet maintaining an open reading frame. In the African ape lineage, we detect signatures of positive selection that occurred after a transition to more ubiquitous expression among great ape tissues when compared to Old World and New World monkeys. Mouse transgenic experiments from baboon and human genomic loci confirm these expression differences and suggest that the broader ape expression pattern arose due to mutational changes that emerged in cis. Conclusions LCR16a promotes serial interspersed duplications and creates hotspots of genomic instability that appear to be an ancient property of primate genomes. Dramatic changes to NPIP gene structure and altered tissue expression preceded major bouts of positive selection in the African ape lineage, suggestive of a gene undergoing strong adaptive evolution.

Seasonal influenza virus A/H3N2 is a major cause of death globally. Vaccination remains the most effective preventative. Rapid mutation of hemagglutinin allows viruses to escape adaptive immunity. This antigenic drift necessitates regular vaccine updates. Effective vaccine strains need to represent H3N2 populations circulating one year after strain selection. Experts select strains based on experimental measurements of antigenic drift and predictions made by models from hemagglutinin sequences. We developed a novel influenza forecasting framework that integrates phenotypic measures of antigenic drift and functional constraint with previously published sequence-only fitness estimates. Forecasts informed by phenotypic measures of antigenic drift consistently outperformed previous sequence-only estimates, while sequence-only estimates of functional constraint surpassed more comprehensive experimentally-informed estimates. Importantly, the best models integrated estimates of both functional constraint and either antigenic drift phenotypes or recent population growth.

Skeletal atavism in Shetland ponies is a heritable disorder characterized by abnormal growth of the ulna and fibula that extend the carpal and tarsal joints, respectively. This causes abnormal skeletal structure and impaired movements, and affected foals are usually killed. In order to identify the causal mutation we subjected six confirmed Swedish cases and a DNA pool consisting of 21 control individuals to whole genome resequencing. We screened for polymorphisms where the cases and the control pool were fixed for opposite alleles and observed this signature for only 25 SNPs, most of which were scattered on genome assembly unassigned scaffolds. Read depth analysis at these loci revealed homozygosity or compound heterozygosity for two partially overlapping large deletions in the pseudoautosomal region (PAR) of chromosome X/Y in cases but not in the control pool. One of these deletions removes the entire coding region of the SHOX gene and both deletions remove parts of the CRLF2 gene located downstream of SHOX. The horse reference assembly of the PAR is highly fragmented, and in order to characterize this region we sequenced bacterial artificial chromosome (BAC) clones by single-molecule real-time (SMRT) sequencing technology. This considerably improved the assembly and enabled size estimations of the two deletions to 160−180 kb and 60−80 kb, respectively. Complete association between the presence of these deletions and disease status was verified in eight other affected horses. The result of the present study is consistent with previous studies in humans showing crucial importance of SHOX for normal skeletal development.

Short-read sequencing has inherent limitations in the characterisation of long repeat elements. Shi and Guo et al.combine single-molecule real-time sequencing and IrysChip to construct a Chinese reference genome that fills many gaps in the reference genome, and identify novel spliced genes.