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Abstract Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km2) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation.

Abstract Background Oil palm is a key driver of deforestation, but increasing yields in existing plantations could help meet rising global demands, while avoiding further conversion of natural habitat. Current oil palm plantations present substantial opportunities for sustainable intensification, but the potential for local yield improvements depends partly on the role of climate in determining yield. Methods We determine the importance of local climatic conditions for oil palm yields in 12 commercial plantations in Peninsular and East Malaysia (Borneo), during 2006–2017. We quantify relationships between climatic conditions (raw and anomalised monthly temperature and rainfall data) and yield for lag times up to 36 months prior to harvest, corresponding to key stages in oil palm fruit development. Results Overall, climatic conditions explained 50% of the explained variation in yield (of total R 2 = 0.38; median annual fresh fruit bunch yield 16.4–31.6 t/ha). The main climatic driver of yield was a positive effect of maximum monthly temperature during inflorescence development (Spearman’s Rho = 0.30), suggesting that insufficient solar radiation is the main climatic constraint to yield in our study sites. We also found positive impacts of rainfall during key stages of fruit development (infloresence abortion and sex determination: Spearman’s Rho 0.06 and 0.08 respectively, for rainfall anomalies), suggesting minor effects of water-limitation on yield; and a negative impact of maximum temperature during the month of harvest (Spearman’s Rho – 0.14 for temperature anomalies), suggesting possible heat stress impacts on plantation workers. Conclusions Our findings imply a relatively minor role of climate in determining yield, and potentially substantial yield gaps in some commercial plantations in Malaysia (possibly up to ~ 50%). Thus, there appear to be substantial opportunities for improving oil palm yield in existing plantations in Malaysia, with further research needed to identify the drivers of such yield gaps.

Many companies are making ambitious pledges to achieve positive impacts for climate and nature by financing restoration of carbon- and biodiversity- rich natural habitats. However, companies cannot make evidence-based choices that will deliver successful restoration if the scientific information required to guide investment has not been synthesised in a way that they can use, or there are knowledge gaps. To explore this issue, share information, and identify knowledge gaps and research priorities, we bring together researchers, a conservation NGO and a multinational consumer goods company (Unilever), focusing on Southeast Asian rainforests. These habitats offer significant restoration opportunities for carbon and biodiversity in areas that have been degraded by commercial logging and agriculture. We find that procedures for carbon restoration are much better developed than those for biodiversity, and that new research is urgently needed to deliver evidence-based biodiversity restoration. Companies need to be confident that their actions are fit-for-purpose to meet their environmental pledges. Achieving successful restoration outcomes will require co-designed projects with the potential to deliver positive co-benefits for carbon, biodiversity and local livelihoods.

Abstract Conservation targets that reference historical expectations, such as maintaining specified areas of intact ecosystems, restoring degraded ones or maintaining the historic distributions of species, may not be realistic in the context of ongoing environmental change, whereas targets that aspire to accommodate the complex realities of the human‐altered and changing world tend to be too vague to implement. Using the first three recently proposed Convention on Biological Diversity post‐2020 global biodiversity Action Targets as context, we suggest a policy framework that evaluates how we might shift from an emphasis on resisting sometimes inevitable change to the development of positive directions of change for people and biodiversity. Our Anthropocene approach builds on the fact that all ecosystems have already been shaped by interactions with people and that ongoing change is inevitable. We outline a Facilitate–Accept–Resist (FAR) framework for all levels of conservation decision‐making and actions, ranging from overall conservation strategies (planning, setting targets, monitoring change, selecting indicators) to the conservation of places (sites, ecosystems, landscapes) and species, and to the provision of ecosystem services and human well‐being. For each potential decision, the approach evaluates whether, for whom and how one might facilitate, accept or resist particular changes. We highlight the value of inclusive engagement in the process to ensure that benefits from biodiversity are equitably shared. The CBD Action targets reflect tensions between maintaining historic states of nature and the Anthropocene reality of integrating people with nature and accepting change. The challenge is to operationalize the inclusivity, integration and change elements of the targets whilst not ‘abandoning’ locations that many conservationists consider to be key places for wildlife. The FAR framework represents a way to operationalize decision‐making in the face of this tension, so that the facilitation and acceptance of positive biodiversity change is adopted at least as frequently as change is resisted.

Abstract Aim Climatic changes throughout the Pleistocene have strongly modified species distributions. We examine how these range shifts have affected the genetic diversity of a montane butterfly species and whether the genetic diversity in the extant populations is threatened by future climate change. Location Europe. Taxon Erebia epiphron Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae. Methods We analyzed mtDNA to map current genetic diversity and differentiation of E. epiphron across Europe to identify population refugia and postglacial range shifts. We used species distribution modeling (SDM) to hindcast distributions over the last 21,000 years to identify source locations of extant populations and to project distributions into the future (2070) to predict potential losses in genetic diversity. Results We found substantial genetic diversity unique to specific regions within Europe (total number of haplotypes = 31, number of unique haplotypes = 27, Hd = 0.9). Genetic data and SDM hindcasting suggest long‐term separation and survival of discrete populations. Particularly, high rates of unique diversity in postglacially colonized sites in England (Hd = 0.64) suggest this population was colonized from a now extinct cryptic refugium. Under future climate change, SDMs predict loss of climate suitability for E. epiphron, particularly at lower elevations (

Abstract Trends in insect abundance are well established in some datasets, but far less is known about how abundance measures translate into biomass trends. Moths (Lepidoptera) provide particularly good opportunities to study trends and drivers of biomass change at large spatial and temporal scales, given the existence of long‐term abundance datasets. However, data on the body masses of moths are required for these analyses, but such data do not currently exist. To address this data gap, we collected empirical data in 2018 on the forewing length and dry mass of field‐sampled moths, and used these to train and test a statistical model that predicts the body mass of moth species from their forewing lengths (with refined parameters for Crambidae, Erebidae, Geometridae and Noctuidae). Modeled biomass was positively correlated, with high explanatory power, with measured biomass of moth species (R2 = 0.886 ± 0.0006, across 10,000 bootstrapped replicates) and of mixed‐species samples of moths (R2 = 0.873 ± 0.0003), showing that it is possible to predict biomass to an informative level of accuracy, and prediction error was smaller with larger sample sizes. Our model allows biomass to be estimated for historical moth abundance datasets, and so our approach will create opportunities to investigate trends and drivers of insect biomass change over long timescales and broad geographic regions.

Many species’ life cycles have moved earlier in the year because of climate change, but we do not know the consequences for range expansions. The authors show that these advances promote range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year, but not in species with only one.

Body size shifts under climate change may arise from species range shifts, intraspecific size shifts, or both. Here the authors show that body size reduction in moth assemblages on Mt. Kinabalu, Borneo, over 42 years are driven more by species range shifts than by within-species shrinkage.

Abstract The loss of huge areas of peat swamp forest in Southeast Asia and the resulting negative environmental effects, both local and global, have led to an increasing interest in peat restoration in the region. Satellite remote sensing offers the potential to provide up‐to‐date information on peat swamp forest loss across large areas, and support spatial explicit conservation and restoration planning. Fusion of optical and radar remote sensing data may be particularly valuable in this context, as most peat swamp forests are in areas with high cloud cover, which limits the use of optical data. Radar data can ‘see through’ cloud, but experience so far has shown that it doesn't discriminate well between certain types of land cover. Various approaches to fusion exist, but there is little information on how they compare. To assess this untapped potential, we compare three different classification methods with Sentinel‐1 and Sentinel‐2 images to map the remnant distribution of peat swamp forest in the area surrounding Sungai Buluh Protection Forest, Sumatra, Indonesia. Results show that data fusion increases overall accuracy in one of the three methods, compared to the use of optical data only. When data fusion was used with the pixel‐based classification using the original pixel values, overall accuracy increased by a small, but statistically significant amount. Data fusion was not beneficial in the case of object‐based classification or pixel‐based classification using principal components. This indicates optical data are still the main source of information for land cover mapping in the region. Based on our findings, we provide methodological recommendations to help those involved in peatland restoration capitalize on the potential of big data.

Abstract 1. Genetic diversity is important for species persistence and Gene Conservation Units (GCUs) have been implemented for forest trees to protect genetic diversity and evolutionary processes in situ. The Convention on Biological Diversity stipulates the protection of genetic diversity as an Aichi target, and so we explore the potential for GCUs to be implemented more widely. 2. Our global systematic review showed that GCUs are currently implemented primarily for plant species of economic importance (109/158 species studied), but a questionnaire sent to land managers and conservationists (60 U.K. participants) revealed strong support for fully integrating genetic information into conservation management (90% agree), and for creating GCUs for other plant and animal taxa. 3. Using four case studies of U.K. species of conservation importance which vary in genetic threat and population dynamics (two insect species, a fungus and a plant), we highlight that GCU implementation criteria need to be flexible to account for variation in effective breeding population size and geographic extent of target species. The wider uptake of GCUs would ensure that threatened genetic diversity is protected and support evolutionary processes that aid adaptation to changing environments.

Abstract Global targets to halt biodiversity losses and mitigate climate change will require protecting rainforest beyond current protected area networks, necessitating responsible forest stewardship from a diverse range of companies, communities and private individuals. Robust assessments of forest condition are critical for successful forest management, but many existing techniques are highly technical, time‐consuming, expensive or require specialist knowledge. To make assessment of tropical forests accessible to a wide range of actors, many of whom may be limited by resources or expertise, the High Conservation Value Resource Network (HCVRN), with the SE Asia Rainforest Research Partnership (SEARRP), developed a South East Asian version of the Forest Integrity Assessment (FIA) tool as a rapid (

Populations undergoing rapid climate-driven range expansion experience distinct selection regimes dominated both by increased dispersal at the leading edges and steep environmental gradients. Characterisation of traits associated with such expansions provides insight into the selection pressures and evolutionary constraints that shape demographic and evolutionary responses. Here we investigate patterns in three components of wing morphology (size, shape, colour) often linked to dispersal ability and thermoregulation, along latitudinal gradients of range expansion in the Speckled Wood butterfly (Pararge aegeria) in Britain (two regions of expansion in England and Scotland). We measured 774 males from 54 sites spanning 799 km with a 10-year mean average temperature gradient of 4 °C. A geometric morphometric method was used to investigate variation in size and shape of forewings and hindwings; colour, pattern, and contrast of the wings were examined using a measure of lightness (inverse degree of melanism). Overall, wing size increased with latitude by ∼2% per 100 km, consistent with Bergmann’s rule. Forewings became more rounded and hindwings more elongated with history of colonisation, possibly reflecting selection for increased dispersal ability. Contrary to thermal melanism expectations, wing colour was lighter where larvae developed at cooler temperatures and unrelated to long-term temperature. Changes in wing spot pattern were also detected. High heterogeneity in variance among sites for all of the traits studied may reflect evolutionary time-lags and genetic drift due to colonisation of new habitats. Our study suggests that temperature-sensitive plastic responses for size and colour interact with selection for dispersal traits (wing size and shape). Whilst the plastic and evolutionary responses may in some cases act antagonistically, the rapid expansion of P. aegeria implies an overall reinforcing effect between these two mechanisms.

Understanding the complex movement patterns of animals in natural environments is a key objective of ‘movement ecology’. Complexity results from behavioural responses to external stimuli but can also arise spontaneously in their absence. Drawing on theoretical arguments about decision-making circuitry, we predict that the spontaneous patterns will be scale-free and universal, being independent of taxon and mode of locomotion. To test this hypothesis, we examined the activity patterns of the European honeybee, and multiple species of noctuid moth, tethered to flight mills and exposed to minimal external cues. We also reanalysed pre-existing data for Drosophila flies walking in featureless environments. Across these species, we found evidence of common scale-invariant properties in their movement patterns; pause and movement durations were typically power law distributed over a range of scales and characterized by exponents close to 3/2. Our analyses are suggestive of the presence of a pervasive scale-invariant template for locomotion which, when acted on by environmental cues, produces the movements with characteristic scales observed in nature. Our results indicate that scale-finite complexity as embodied, for instance, in correlated random walk models, may be the result of environmental cues overriding innate behaviour, and that scale-free movements may be intrinsic and not limited to ‘blind’ foragers as previously thought.