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To recover the actual responsivity for the Ultraviolet Multi-Filter Rotating Shadowband Radiometer (UV-MFRSR), the complex (e.g., unstable, noisy, and with gaps) time series of its in situ calibration factors (V0) need to be smoothed. Many smoothing techniques require accurate input uncertainty of the time series. A new method is proposed to estimate the dynamic input uncertainty by examining overall variation and subgroup means within a moving time window. Using this calculated dynamic input uncertainty within Gaussian process (GP) regression provides the mean and uncertainty functions of the time series. This proposed GP solution was first applied to a synthetic signal and showed significantly smaller RMSEs than a Gaussian process regression performed with constant values of input uncertainty and the mean function. GP was then applied to three UV-MFRSR V0 time series at three ground sites. The method appropriately accounted for variation in slopes, noises, and gaps at all sites. The validation results at the three test sites (i.e., HI02 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii; IL02 at Bondville, Illinois; and OK02 at Billings, Oklahoma) demonstrated that the agreement among aerosol optical depths (AODs) at the 368 nm channel calculated using V0 determined by the GP mean function and the equivalent AERONET AODs were consistently better than those calculated using V0 from standard techniques (e.g., moving average). For example, the average AOD biases of the GP method (0.0036 and 0.0032) are much lower than those of the moving average method (0.0119 and 0.0119) at IL02 and OK02, respectively. The GP method's absolute differences between UV-MFRSR and AERONET AOD values are approximately 4.5 %, 21.6 %, and 16.0 % lower than those of the moving average method at HI02, IL02, and OK02, respectively. The improved accuracy of in situ UVMRP V0 values suggests the GP solution is a robust technique for accurate analysis of complex time series and may be applicable to other fields.

Taxonomic over-splitting of extinct or endangered taxa, due to an incomplete knowledge of both skeletal morphological variability and the geographical ranges of past populations, continues to confuse the link between isolated extant populations and their ancestors. This is particularly problematic with the genus Equus. To more reliably determine the evolution and phylogeographic history of the endangered Asiatic wild ass, we studied the genetic diversity and inter-relationships of both extinct and extant populations over the last 100,000 years, including samples throughout its previous range from Western Europe to Southwest and East Asia. Using 229 bp of the mitochondrial hypervariable region, an approach which allowed the inclusion of information from extremely poorly preserved ancient samples, we classify all non-African wild asses into eleven clades that show a clear phylogeographic structure revealing their phylogenetic history. This study places the extinct European wild ass, E. hydruntinus, the phylogeny of which has been debated since the end of the 19th century, into its phylogenetic context within the Asiatic wild asses and reveals recent mitochondrial introgression between populations currently regarded as separate species. The phylogeographic organization of clades resulting from these efforts can be used not only to improve future taxonomic determination of a poorly characterized group of equids, but also to identify historic ranges, interbreeding events between various populations, and the impact of ancient climatic changes. In addition, appropriately placing extant relict populations into a broader phylogeographic and genetic context can better inform ongoing conservation strategies for this highly-endangered species.

A parameterization was developed for the heterogeneous reaction probability (γ) of N2O5 as a function of temperature, relative humidity (RH), particle composition, and phase state, for use in advanced air quality models. The reaction probabilities on aqueous NH4HSO4, (NH4)2SO4, and NH4NO3 were modeled statistically using data and uncertainty values compiled from seven different laboratory studies. A separate regression model was fit to laboratory data for dry NH4HSO4 and (NH4)2SO4 particles, yielding lower γ values than the corresponding aqueous parameterizations. The regression equations reproduced 80% of the laboratory data within a factor of two and 63% within a factor of 1.5. A fixed value was selected for γ on ice-containing particles based on a review of the literature. The combined parameterization was applied under atmospheric conditions representative of the eastern United States using 3-dimensional fields of temperature, RH, sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium. The resulting spatial distributions of γ were contrasted with three other parameterizations that have been applied in air quality models in the past and with atmospheric observational determinations of γ. Our equations lay the foundation for future research that will parameterize the suppression of γ when inorganic ammoniated particles are mixed or coated with organic material. Our analyses draw attention to a major uncertainty in the available laboratory data at high RH and highlight a critical need for future laboratory measurements of γ at low temperature and high RH to improve model simulations of N2O5 hydrolysis during wintertime conditions.

BackgroundNeandertals and the Middle Paleolithic persisted in the Iberian Peninsula south of the Ebro drainage system for several millennia beyond their assimilation/replacement elsewhere in Europe. As only modern humans are associated with the later stages of the Aurignacian, the duration of this persistence pattern can be assessed via the dating of diagnostic occurrences of such stages.Methodology/principal findingsUsing AMS radiocarbon and advanced pretreatment techniques, we dated a set of stratigraphically associated faunal samples from an Aurignacian III-IV context excavated at the Portuguese cave site of Pego do Diabo. Our results establish a secure terminus ante quem of ca. 34,500 calendar years ago for the assimilation/replacement process in westernmost Eurasia. Combined with the chronology of the regional Late Mousterian and with less precise dating evidence for the Aurignacian II, they place the denouement of that process in the 37th millennium before present.Conclusions/significanceThese findings have implications for the understanding of the emergence of anatomical modernity in the Old World as a whole, support explanations of the archaic features of the Lagar Velho child's anatomy that invoke evolutionarily significant Neandertal/modern admixture at the time of contact, and counter suggestions that Neandertals could have survived in southwest Iberia until as late as the Last Glacial Maximum.