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Abstract Background Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is a significant health burden in China, exacerbated by the rising prevalence of high body mass index (BMI). Understanding the trends and factors contributing to mortality and disability associated with GBTC is crucial for targeted public health interventions. Methods We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to assess the burden of GBTC attributable to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized rates of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) were analyzed. Joinpoint regression and decomposition analyses were conducted to evaluate trends and identify contributing factors, including aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes. Gender-specific differences were also assessed. Results In 2021, GBTC deaths attributable to high BMI in China reached 4,053, with males experiencing a higher overall burden than females, particularly in older age groups. While females showed a higher mortality and overall burden in the 60 to 79 age range, this trend reversed in older age brackets, with males experiencing steeper increases in mortality and disability-related indicators beyond age 80. The age-standardized DALYs rate mirrored this pattern, with higher rates in males in advanced age groups. From 1990 to 2021, China saw a steady increase in GBTC burden attributable to high BMI, contrasting with a global decline. Joinpoint analysis indicated marked rises in mortality and DALYs rates after 2005, especially in males. Decomposition analysis identified population growth and aging as major drivers of increased deaths, while epidemiological changes primarily contributed to rising DALYs, with a stronger impact observed in males. Conclusions The burden of GBTC attributable to high BMI in China has increased substantially over the last three decades, driven by population growth, aging, and epidemiological shifts. The trends highlight a growing gender disparity, with males experiencing a greater rise in mortality and disability. Public health strategies targeting obesity and metabolic risk factors are critical to mitigating the increasing GBTC burden.

Abstract Background Central Asia is known to face various ecological challenges that constitutes major risk factors for Parkinson’s disease (PD). This study examines the burden of PD in Central Asia, a region where data on neurological disorders is notably sparse. Methods Building on the latest Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2021), this study investigates the Years of Life Lost (YLLs), Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) associated with PD in Central Asia and its countries from 1990 to 2021. The authors calculated average annual percent change (AAPC) to analyze trends, and compared individual country estimates to global figures. Additionally, incorporating data from the World Bank, both Bayesian hierarchical and non-hierarchical frequentist regression models were employed to assess their impact on DALYs. Results The DALYs varied across the study period, primarily driven by YLLs. While YLLs showed a uniform trend, YLDs were mostly incremental. Kazakhstan had the highest estimates across all metrics and was the only country aligned with global patterns. Age- and sex-specific estimates revealed substantial variations, with notably high figures found in male subjects from Tajikistan. The YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs for Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan saw a significant increase in AAPCs. In contrast, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan saw declines, likely attributable to civic conflict and inter-country differences in population structure. Further comparison of DALY trends revealed significant deviations for all countries from the global pattern. Conclusion This study showed an overall increase in PD burden from 1990 to 2021. These findings underscore the need for targeted strategies to reduce PD burden, with a particular focus on Kazakhstan. Integrating historical information is crucial for discussing the plausible mechanisms in studies sourced from the GBD.

Abstract Purpose To explore the worldwide, regional, and country-specific burden of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) and identify its associated risk factors between 1990 and 2021, and to project its incidence and mortality rates for 2036. Methods We acquired data on EO-CRC categorized by gender, socio-demographic index (SDI), and risk factors based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was utilized to explore the variation in disease burden. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was performed to forecast the disease burden up to 2036. Results Globally, the incidence rate, prevalence rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of EO-CRC were estimated at 5.37 (95%UI: 4.91 to 5.86)/100,000, 34 (95%UI: 30.96 to 37.35)/100,000, 2.01 (95%UI: 1.84 to 2.19)/100,000, and 101.37 (95%: 92.85 to 110.18)/100,000 in 2021. The prevalence and incidence rates of EO-CRC showed an ascending trajectory, whilst the DALYs and mortality rates demonstrated a downward trajectory between 1990 to 2021. The high-middle SDI regions and East Asia exhibited the highest EO-CRC burden among the five SDI regions and 21 GBD regions respectively. A low-whole-grains diet was the chief risk factor contributing to EO-CRC. It was predicted that the age-standardized rate (ASR) of EO-CRC incidence would increase by 5.56%, while the ASR of mortality would decrease by 13.9% globally until 2036. Conclusion The current and future global burden of EO-CRC is heavy and varies significantly across different regions and countries.

Abstract Background Rare infectious diseases of poverty (rIDPs) involve more than hundreds of tropical diseases, which dominantly affect people living in impoverished and marginalized regions and fail to be prioritized in the global health agenda. The neglect of rIDPs could impede the progress toward sustainable development. This study aimed to estimate the disease burden of rIDPs in 2021, which would be pivotal for setting intervention priorities and mobilizing resources globally. Methods Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the study reported both numbers and age-standardized rates of prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), years lived with disability, and years of life lost of rIDPs with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) at global, regional, and national levels. The temporal trends between 1990 and 2021 were assessed by the joinpoint regression analysis. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the disease burden for 2050. Results In 2021, there were 103.76 million (95% UI: 102.13, 105.44 million) global population suffered from rIDPs with an age-standardized DALY rate of 58.44 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 42.92, 77.26 per 100,000 population). From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized DALY rates showed an average annual percentage change of − 0.16% (95% confidence interval: − 0.22, − 0.11%). Higher age-standardized DALY rates were dominated in sub-Saharan Africa (126.35 per 100,000 population, 95% UI: 91.04, 161.73 per 100,000 population), South Asia (80.80 per 100,000 population, 95% UI: 57.31, 114.10 per 100,000 population), and countries with a low socio-demographic index. There was age heterogeneity in the DALY rates of rIDPs, with the population aged under 15 years being the most predominant. Females aged 15–49 years had four-times higher age-standardized DALY rates of rIDPs than males in the same age. The projections indicated a slight reduction in the disease burden of rIDPs by 2050. Conclusions There has been a slight reduction in the disease burden of rIDPs over the past three decades. Given that rIDPs mainly affect populations in impoverished regions, targeted health strategies and resource allocation are in great demand for these populations to further control rIDPs and end poverty in all its forms everywhere. Graphical Abstract

Abstract Objective This study aims to systematically evaluate the burden of low back pain(LBP) in the middle-aged population across global regions and between genders, assess the major risk factors and their impacts, and project the burden to 2050, providing a scientific basis for global preventive actions. Methods This study utilized The Global Burden of Disease(GBD) 2021 database. First, we integrated the population data of the 45–49, 50–54, and 55–59 age groups provided by the GBD using a weighted average method to calculate the Disability-adjusted life years(DALYs) rate for the middle-aged population aged 45 to 59 years. Subsequently, we analyzed the trends in the burden of LBP globally and across regions from 1990 to 2021, with a focus on stratified data by country, risk factors (e.g., high BMI), and gender. Finally, we employed the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC) model to predict future trends in LBP burden from 2021 to 2050. Results Globally, from 1990 to 2021, the DALY rate for the 45–59 age group with LBP decreased from 875.45(95%UI: 534.57-1340.68) per 100,000 people to 747.92 (450.55-1,161.66), with an EAPC of -0.46 (95%UI: -0.50 to -0.43). Despite the decline in DALY rates, the total number of DALYs due to LBP increased from 5,515,080.64 (95%UI: 3,367,626.11–8,445,931.67) in 1990 to 9,816,401.64 (95%UI: 5,913,142.33–15,249,187.03) in 2021, a rise of 4,301,321. High Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions were the most affected, with a DALY rate of 933.03 (95%UI: 557.90–1,420.60) per 100,000 in 2021. Among risk factors, high BMI showed the most significant increase, with DALY rates rising from 153.64 (95%UI: 15.94–334.63) per 100,000 in 1990 to 209.09 (95%UI: 22.16–452.58) in 2021, and an EAPC of 1.08 (95%UI: 1.02 to 1.14). Gender differences revealed a DALY rate of 705.39 (95%UI: 431.21–1,078.96) per 100,000 for males and 803.62 (95%UI: 471.69–1,266.63) per 100,000 for females in 2021. Projections based on the BAPC model suggest that by 2050, global DALYs due to LBP will increase to 11,626,643.07, with females expected to account for 6,725,763.24 and males for 4,900,879.84, indicating a greater burden for females. Conclusion This study highlights the global burden and trends of LBP in the middle-aged population. Although the DALY rate for the 45–59 age group decreased from 1990 to 2021, the total number of DALYs increased significantly due to population aging. In this context, the burden of LBP in low-middle SDI regions has remained largely unchanged and remains substantial, while high-SDI regions, despite some decline, continue to bear the highest overall burden. High BMI continues to contribute significantly to the rising LBP burden, particularly in middle-aged populations, and demands urgent attention. Gender differences indicate that females bear a greater LBP burden than males, with the gap widening over time. Effective preventive and intervention measures are urgently needed to mitigate the future burden of LBP.

Abstract Background Interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis remain serious medical problems worldwide. This study aims to assess the global burden and health inequalities of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis between 1990 and 2021. Methods Data on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2021. The slope index of inequality (SII) and concentration index were used to assess cross-national health inequality. Results There were 2,237,269 (95% uncertainty interval: 1,839,500 to 2,555,200) DALYs due to interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis in males and 1,804,881 DALYs (1,465,707 to 2,216,376) in females in 2021. The age-standardized DALY rate of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis increased from 37.1 (30.6 to 45.4) per 100,000 in 1990 to 47.6 (41.3 to 53.2) per 100,000 in 2021. Countries with high socio-demographic index (SDI) showed the greatest increase in the age-standardized DALY rate of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis during the past 32 years (53.4%, 45.1 to 62.2%). The SII increased from 19.6 (95% confidence interval: 11.6 to 27.5) in 1990 to 53.4 (39.7 to 67.1) in 2021. The concentration index increased from 0.15 (0.08 to 0.21) in 1990 to 0.23 (0.16 to 0.32) in 2021. Conclusion The burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis increased and remained high in the high-SDI quintile. More attention must be given to reducing the burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis.

Abstract Background The zoonotic infectious diseases of poverty (zIDPs) are a group of diseases contributing to global poverty, with significant impacts on a substantial population. This study aims to describe the global, regional, and national burden of zIDPs—schistosomiasis, cystic echinococcosis, cysticercosis, and food-borne trematodiases (FBTs)—to support policy making and resource allocation for their control and elimination. Methods Data of zIDPs from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 were retrieved from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate were described and the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify their burden and temporal trends. Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between age-standardized rates and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Results In 2021, these zIDPs exhibited a certain level of ASPRs and age-standardized DALY rates, while maintaining relatively low ASMRs. Noticeably, schistosomiasis presented the highest ASPR of 1914.299 (95% UI: 1378.920, 2510.853 per 100,000 population) and an age-standardized DALY rate of 21.895 (95% UI: 12.937, 37.278 per 100,000 population) among the zIDPs. The tapestry of burden—woven predominantly through low and lower-middle SDI regions—stretched across Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia. From 1990 to 2021, a kaleidoscopic shift was observed globally as ASPRs, ASMRs, and age-standardized DALY rates declined significantly, as reflected by the EAPC values. Negative correlations were observed between the ASPRs, ASMRs, age-standardized DALY rates of schistosomiasis (r value = − 0.610, − 0.622 and − 0.610), cystic echinococcosis (− 0.676 of ASMR, − 0.550 of age-standardized DALYs), cysticercosis (− 0.420, − 0.797 and − 0.591) and the SDI. In contrast, a slight positive correlation was noted between the ASPR, age-standardized DALY rates of FBTs and SDI with r value of 0.221 and 0.213, respectively. Conclusion The burden of zIDPs declined across almost all endemic regions from 1990 to 2021, yet still predominated in low and low-middle SDI regions. Substantial challenges exist to achieve the goal of control and elimination of zIDPs, and integrated approaches based on One Health need to be strengthened to improve health outcomes. Graphical Abstract

Abstract Background Anemia is a significant global health issue, impacting 1.92 billion people and ranking as a leading cause of disability. It is marked by low hemoglobin levels, which hinder oxygen delivery to vital organs and result from causes such as nutritional deficiencies and chronic diseases. Despite some progress, anemia remains a major concern in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam. Although the country has reduced its anemia rates, the progress is insufficient to achieve the WHO’s 2030 targets for anemia reduction among women of reproductive age. This study explores anemia trends and socio-economic determinants in Vietnam, with a focus on age and gender differences, to inform targeted interventions and policy development. Methods This study used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) dataset to explore the burden of anemia and its causes in Vietnam from 1990 to 2021. The GBD study provides data on anemia prevalence and years lived with disability (YLD) by age, sex, and 37 causes across 204 countries and territories. Further, this study employed a regression model to examine how the anemia burden (i.e., prevalence rate and YLD rate) relates to socio-economic factors such as the Human Development Index (HDI), gender disparities in human development achievement, and gender-based inequalities in reproductive health, empowerment, and economic status in Vietnam over this period. Results In 1990, there were 16.30 million anemia cases in Vietnam, decreasing slightly to 16.05 million by 2021. Male prevalence dropped from 34.90 to 26.58%, while female prevalence increased from 65.10 to 73.42%. Iron deficiency was the main cause, affecting 68.35% of cases in 1990 and 68.84% in 2021, with 24.96% in males and 75.04% in females in 2021. While anemia has decreased among infants, young children, and adolescents due to improved healthcare, it has increased among middle-aged and older adults, especially females. Regression analysis shows that higher human development and gender equality reduce anemia prevalence and disability, whereas gender inequality worsens the issue. Conclusions The study underscores that anemia remains a major health concern in Vietnam, marked by significant gender and age disparities. Despite a decrease in overall anemia rates and the effectiveness of specific interventions like iron-folic acid supplementation, females, particularly those of reproductive age and older adults, continue to face higher rates. Socio-economic improvements, including higher income and better human development, are linked to lower anemia rates, though the impact differs by gender. The persistent gender disparity and the shift in burden to older adults highlight the need for more comprehensive, gender-sensitive interventions. Future efforts should integrate nutritional support with broader socio-economic enhancements to effectively address anemia and improve public health in Vietnam.

Abstract Background Cirrhosis comprises a significant health challenge in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region impacting healthcare systems and communities. This study sought to investigate trends in the burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease, different etiologies, deaths, and the disability burden utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Methods Analyzing epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2021 across 21 MENA countries, this research utilized data on age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized death rates, and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to evaluate the burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease. The study also examined national variations and sociodemographic relationships. Results The study identified a 114.9% increase in cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease incidence within the MENA region between 1990 and 2021, with 7,344,030 incident cases reported in 2021. The ASIR showed a steeper rise in females (9.6%) compared to males (7.0%). Etiology-specific analysis revealed an increase in the ASIR for MASLD related cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease by 22.2%, while those due to alcohol as well as hepatitis B and C decreased by 28.1%, 59.3%, and 30%, respectively. Despite the rising incidence, overall age-standardized death rates across all etiologies decreased by 54.3%, with DALYs showing a 51.4% decrease during the same period. Country-specific trends varied significantly, with Oman recording the highest annual ASIR increase (0.64%), and Qatar observing the most substantial annual reduction in age-standardized death rates (-2.88%). Conclusion The study highlights evolving trends in cirrhosis and other chronic liver disease within the MENA region, emphasizing the necessity for comprehensive, etiology, and gender-specific interventions. Despite an increasing incidence, the observed improvements in mortality rates and age-standardized disability burden indicate progress in public health efforts to mitigate cirrhosis’s impact. These findings point to the complex nature of cirrhosis outcomes and the urgent need for tailored strategies to manage its increasing burden effectively.

Abstract Background Hepatitis B remains a significant global health concern with widespread communicability. Nevertheless, data on its burden and trends in children and adolescents were limited. We aim to evaluate the global, regional, and national trends of total burden related to hepatitis B in children and adolescents aged 0–19 years from 1990 to 2021. Methods The age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 1990 to 2021. These indicators were stratified by sex, age, socio-demographic index (SDI), and disease stage. We calculated the correlation between them and SDI. The temporal trends were examined using the annual average percentage change (AAPC) and joinpoint regression. Results The global age-standardized incidence of hepatitis B in children and adolescents decreased from 1385.20 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 418.68 per 100,000 population in 2021, with an AAPC of -3.76%. Similarly, age-standardized DALYs decreased from 70.78 per 100,000 population to 36.31 per 100,000 population, with an AAPC of -2.13%. The age-standardized prevalence (AAPC − 3.53%) and mortality (AAPC − 2.09%) of hepatitis B also decreased significantly. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence among males exhibited a higher trend compared to females, although both declined over time. These two indicators also decreased across all age subgroups, with consistently higher rates observed in the 15–19 age group compared to other age groups. The burden of hepatitis B demonstrated a notable reduction in countries with high-middle SDI, while it was highest in countries with low SDI. In 2021, Central sub-Saharan Africa and West sub-Saharan Africa reported the highest age-standardized incidence. For age-standardized DALYs, South Asia was the only region to experience an increase (AAPC 1.09%), while East Asia showed the largest decline (AAPC − 7.58%). Alcohol and drug use remained important risk factors for DALYs among people aged 15–19 years. Furthermore, the impact of drug use on disease burden was increasing, particularly in high-SDI countries. Conclusions The global burden and trends of hepatitis B decreased significantly in children and adolescents, exhibiting regional and national variations. Management of alcohol and drug use remains a major challenge for people aged 15–19 years.

Jinlei Zhou,1,* Shanggao Xie,1,* Sen Xu,1,* Yuan Zhang,2 Yanlei Li,1 Qice Sun,2 Jun Zhang,1,3 Tingxiao Zhao1 1Center for Plastic & Reconstructive Surgery, Department of Orthopedics, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Rheumatology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Orthopedics, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital Bijie Hospital, Bijie, 551700, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Tingxiao Zhao, Center for Plastic & Reconstructive Surgery, Department of Orthopedics, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital (Affiliated People’s Hospital, Hangzhou Medical College), Shangtang Road 158#, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, People’s Republic of China, Email spinezhaotingxiao@163.com Jun Zhang, Department of Orthopedics, Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital Bijie hospital, Guanghui Road 112#, Bijie, Guizhou, People’s Republic of China, Email spinecarezhangjun@163.comObjective: Comprehensive analyses of the burden of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) are crucial for deepening our understanding of their impact on population health and for evaluating progress toward achieving international health goals.Study Design: A comprehensive analysis was performed using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021.Methods: We gathered data on the number of prevalent cases, incidences, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for MSDs from 1990 to 2021. Subsequently, crude indicators, age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated for MSDs from 1990 to 2021 at the global, regional, national, age and gender levels. Finally, decomposition analysis, frontier analysis, and EAPC cluster analysis were employed to examine changes in the indicators and the factors influencing them.Results: In 2021, there were 367,193,430 incident cases and 1,686,561,517 prevalent cases of MSDs globally. Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) declined marginally from 4641.5 to 4351.79 cases per 100,000 population [EAPC: − 0.16 (− 0.19 to − 0.13)], while the age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) increased from 1886.2 to 1908.87 per 100,000 population [EAPC: 0.09 (0.07 to 0.11)]. The ASRs were markedly elevated in the high SDI regions in comparison to the remaining SDI regions. The EAPC and its phase clustering analyses indicated a notable upward trajectory in the burden of MSDs in the low and middle SDI regions, particularly in Central Asia. The prevalence of MSDs is highest among individuals aged 50– 59 years and among women. At the global level, the burden of MSDs is 1.43 to 2.30 times higher for women than for men.Conclusion: From 1990 to 2021, the burden of MSDs has been concentrated in high SDI regions, with a gradual shift towards low and middle SDI regions.Keywords: musculoskeletal disease, global burden of disease, prevalence, incidence, DALYs, epidemiology

Abstract Background Cancer poses a significant public health challenge in India, making it crucial to predict its future impact for effective healthcare planning. This study forecast cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in India from 2022 to 2031. Methods We extracted age-standardized data on incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and mortality from 1990 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We used Decadal Average Percentage Change techniques to identify trends in cancer burden over decades and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method were used for forecasting. The ARIMA (2,2,2) model was identified as the best for predicting cancer incidence, ARIMA (0,3,3) for DALYs, and ARIMA (0,2,2) for mortality. Results The cancer incidence rate is expected to rise from 529.40 (95% CI: 525.41-533.38) in 2022 to 549.17 (95% CI: 487.43-610.92) per 100,000 population in 2031. The DALYs rate is projected to decrease from 2001.53 (95% CI: 1964.24-2038.82) in 2022 to 1842.08 (95% CI: 1273.57-2410.60) per 100,000 population in 2031, indicating improvements in cancer burden management. Mortality rates are forecasted to increase slightly, from 71.52 (95% CI: 69.91–73.12) in 2022 to 73.00 (95% CI: 60.88–85.11) per 100,000 population in 2031. Overall, while incidence and mortality rates show a slight upward trend, the DALYs rate is projected to decrease, reflecting potential advancements in cancer management and treatment over the forecast period. Conclusions Over the next decade, cancer incidence and mortality are expected to increase in India, highlighting the need for enhanced prevention, early detection, and proper treatment strategies. Despite these increases, the anticipated decrease in DALYs suggests potential advancements in cancer management, warranting further investigation into the drivers of this positive trend and measures to sustain it.

Abstract Objectives To assess the global burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) attributable to high body mass index (BMI) from 1990 to 2021 and analyze its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics. Study design An observational study based on GBD 2021 data. Methods Data on AF burden due to high BMI were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to evaluate temporal trends in age-standardized rates of deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 30 years. Results In 2021, high BMI-related AF caused 27,000 deaths and 725,000 DALYs globally, a 376% increase since 1990. Females and the elderly (aged 70+) bore a higher burden. Upper-middle-income regions surpassed high-income regions in AF burden. Australasia had the highest age-standardized rates, while High-income Asia Pacific and South Asia had the lowest. South Asia showed rapid growth in age-standardized death rates. Conclusion The global burden of high BMI-related AF varies across regions and time, threatening global health, especially for females and the elderly. Targeted strategies are needed to reduce AF and obesity.

Abstract Stroke remains a critical global health issue, significantly impacting India with substantial contributions to mortality and disability. This study comprehensively analyses stroke incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across India from 1990 to 2021, using the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data. We evaluate how Universal Health Coverage (UHC), health expenditure, human development index (HDI), and gross national income (GNI) influence stroke outcomes. Our findings reveal significant regional disparities, with higher stroke rates in urban areas and states like Goa and Kerala. Higher health expenditure and HDI are linked to lower stroke rates, while higher GNI per capita correlates with increased stroke incidence, likely due to lifestyle changes. Risk factors include air pollution, tobacco use, dietary risks, and high blood pressure. Air pollution notably impacts stroke mortality in Bihar and Jharkhand, while tobacco use is a major risk factor in Mizoram and Manipur. Dietary risks and hypertension are prevalent in Maharashtra and Jammu & Kashmir. The study highlights the need for targeted public health strategies addressing regional disparities and socioeconomic factors. Policymakers should focus on lifestyle modification programs, public awareness campaigns, and enhanced access to quality stroke care to reduce stroke-related morbidity and mortality effectively.

Abstract Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) brings heavy clinical and economic burdens to patients worldwide. High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) was proven to be an important modifiable risk factor. However, the global burden distribution of HFPG-attributable MASLD has not been fully studied. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological distribution and trends of the burden of HFPG-attributable MASLD worldwide. The data source was the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study. Descriptive statistics were mainly conducted using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths of HFPG-attributable MASLD from 1990 to 2021, as well as their age-standardized rates (ASRs) and population-attributable fractions. Subgroup analyses were conducted by region, age group, and sex. We found that 213.48 thousand DALYs and 10.02 thousand deaths in MASLD were attributable to HFPG worldwide in 2021, with an increase of 2.96 and 3.32 times compared with 1990, respectively. Over the past 32 years, age-standardized DALY rates (ASDRs) have fluctuated upward, reaching 2.45 per 100,000 people in 2021, with an increase of 81.21%. The ASDRs continued to rise in low, low-middle, and high social demographic index (SDI) regions, fluctuated upward at high levels in middle SDI regions, and were relatively low in high-middle SDI regions. People aged 50–69 accounted for the largest proportion of DALYs, while people over 70 had the largest increase of 3.73 times. Men had higher ASDRs, and the sex difference has been gradually expanding over the past 32 years, peaking at the age of 45–49. In conclusion, the burden of HFPG-attributable MASLD has continued to increase globally, with differences in geographical area, age, and sex distribution. HFPG, as a modifiable risk factor, should be given more importance. The implementation of targeted health intervention strategies is recommended for each country based on trends in the burden of HFPG-attributable MASLD.

Abstract Objectives This study aimed to quantify the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to diet low in fiber among adults aged 60 years and older using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Methods We extracted data on CVD mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk-factor exposures from the GBD 2019 study for people aged 60 and older. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in mortality and DALY rate (net drift, % per year), mortality and DALY rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), longitudinal age-specific rate corrected for period bias (age effect), and mortality and Daly rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year). And period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect). Results From 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates attributable to low dietary fiber intake decreased by 2.37% per year, while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) fell by 2.48% annually. Decreases were observed across all sociodemographic index regions, with fastest declines in high and high-middle SDI areas. CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to low fiber increased exponentially with age, peaking at 85–89 years, and were higher in men than women. Regarding period effects, mortality and DALY rates declined since 2000, reaching nadirs in 2015–2019. For birth cohort patterns, risks attributable to low fiber intake peaked among early 1900s births and subsequently fell, with more pronounced reductions over time in women. Conclusions Low dietary fiber intake is a leading contributor to the global cardiovascular disease burden, accounting for substantial mortality and disability specifically among older adults over recent decades.

The incidence of prostate, breast, and thyroid cancers has increased in China over the past few decades. Whether and how much these increases can be attributed to overdiagnosis are less understood. This study aimed to estimate the proportion of overdiagnosis among these three cancers in China during 2004–2019. The age-specific cancer incidence, cancer mortality, and all-cause mortality in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019. The lifetime risk of developing and that of dying from each cancer were calculated using the life table method. The proportion of overdiagnosis of a cancer was estimated as the difference between the lifetime risk of developing the cancer and that of suffering from the cancer (including death, metastasis, and symptoms caused by the cancer), further divided by the lifetime risk of developing the cancer. The highest possible values of these parameters were adopted in the estimation so as to obtain the lower bounds of the proportions of overdiagnosis. Sensitivity analyses assuming different lag periods between the diagnosis of a cancer and death from the cancer were performed. The results showed that the lifetime risk of developing prostate, breast, and thyroid cancer increased dramatically from 2004 to 2019 in China, while the increase in the lifetime risk of dying from these cancers was less pronounced. The proportions of overdiagnosis among prostate, breast, and thyroid cancers were estimated to be 7.88%, 18.99%, and 24.92%, respectively, in 2004, and increased to 18.20%, 26.25%, and 29.24%, respectively, in 2019. The increasing trends were statistically significant for all three cancers (all p < 0.001). In sensitivity analyses, the proportions of overdiagnosis decreased, but upward trends over time remained for all three cancers. In conclusion, the overdiagnosis of prostate, breast, and thyroid cancers in China increased from 2004 to 2019, with the highest proportion seen in thyroid cancer and the most rapid increase seen in prostate cancer. Multifaceted efforts by policy makers, guideline developers, and clinicians are needed to tackle this problem.

Abstract Background Lower extremity amputations (LEAs) significantly contribute to mortality and morbidity, often resulting from peripheral artery disease and diabetes mellitus (DM). Traumatic injuries also account for many LEAs. Despite the global burden, the epidemiology of LEAs, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, remains underexplored. This study utilizes the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset to analyze temporal trends in LEAs in the MENA region from 1990 to 2019. Methods The study utilized the 2019 GBD dataset, which includes estimates for incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across 369 diseases. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) for LEAs were extracted for 21 MENA countries. Trends were analyzed using percentage change calculations and Joinpoint regression to identify significant shifts in LEA rates over time. Results From 1990 to 2019, male LEA rates generally decreased, while female rates increased. Significant increases in LEA rates were observed in Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan, correlating with periods of conflict and instability. Conversely, countries like Iraq, Palestine, Sudan, Lebanon, Iran, and Kuwait saw marked decreases. The study highlighted a complex interplay of socio-political factors, natural disasters, and chronic diseases like DM in shaping LEA trends across the region. Conclusion The study reveals variable LEA trends in the MENA region, influenced by conflicts, natural disasters, and chronic diseases. These findings underscore the need for targeted public health interventions, improved healthcare access, and robust data collection systems to reduce the burden of LEAs and improve patient outcomes in the MENA region.

Abstract Background Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) results from the rupture of blood vessels causing bleeding within the brain and is one of the major causes of death and long-term disability globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Despite having a lower incidence than ischemic stroke, ICH imposes a greater social and economic burden. To our knowledge, since the release of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) report, there has been no comprehensive update on the epidemiology and trends of ICH. This study aims to analyze the impact of gender, age, and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) on the burden of ICH at global, regional, and national levels. Methods Data on the incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of ICH and its related risk factors from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 project, encompassing 203 countries and regions. Furthermore, temporal trends of the global intracerebral hemorrhage burden were assessed through Joinpoint analysis. Results In 2021, there were 3.444 million new cases of ICH worldwide, with an age-standardized prevalence rate of 40.8 per 100,000 people, representing a 31.4% decrease compared to 1990. In 2021, ICH caused 3.308 million deaths, with an age-standardized mortality rate of 39.1 per 100,000 people, a reduction of 36.6% since 1990. Globally, ICH accounted for 79.457 million DALYs, with an age-standardized DALY rate of 92.4 per 100,000 people, representing a 39.1% decrease since 1990. Regionally, Central Asia, Oceania, and Southeast Asia had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates of ICH, whereas Australasia, high-income North America, and Western Europe had the lowest rates. Nationally, the Solomon Islands, Mongolia, and Kiribati had the highest age-standardized prevalence rates, whereas Switzerland, New Zealand, and Australia had the lowest. Hypertension, smoking, and environmental pollution were identified as the primary risk factors for ICH. This study also validated the significant association between SDI and the burden of ICH, with the age-standardized DALY rate of ICH decreasing significantly as SDI increased. Conclusion Despite the decreasing burden of intracerebral hemorrhage, it remains a significant public health issue in countries with a lower SDI. Prevention strategies should prioritize hypertension management, air quality improvement, and smoking control to further mitigate the impact of intracerebral hemorrhage.

Background Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the second leading cause of disease burden in the Chinese population, and dietary factors are considered as effective and feasible approaches to reduce the disease burden. Objective To analyze the trends in the disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors from 1990 to 2021 and future trends in China, aiming to provide a reference basis for dietary prevention and treatment of IHD in China. Methods Data related to the disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China, worldwide, and regions with varied socio-demographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) database. Using the Joinpoint model, the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated to analyze the disease burden of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China, worldwide, and regions with varied SDI. Furthermore, the model evaluated the diet-ralated disease burden by gender and age groups in China, as well as the burden of disease attributable to specific dietary factors within the Chinese population from 1990 to 2021. Additionally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict the standardized mortality rate and the standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate of IHD attributable to dietary factors from 2022 to 2031. Results In 2021, the standardized mortality rate and standardized DALY rate of IHD attributable to dietary factors in China were 44.26/100 000 and 820.87/100 000, respectively, which were close to the global levels, but higher than those of high SDI regions and lower than the remaining four categories of SDI regions. From 1990 to 2021, the standardized mortality rate (AAPC=-0.17%, P

Purpose: To assess the correlation between the worldwide burden of vision impairment (VI) and fine particulate matter (PM) 2.5. Methods: In this retrospective cross-sectional study, global and national prevalence and disability-adjusted lost year (DALY) numbers and rates of total VI, glaucoma, cataract, and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database. The global and national levels of PM2.5 levels were also extracted. The main outcome measures were the correlation of PM2.5 levels with total VI and three ocular diseases in different age, sex, and socioeconomic subgroups. Results: In 2019, the worldwide prevalence of total VI and exposure level of PM2.5 was 9.6% (95% uncertainty interval: 8.0–11.3) and 42.5 μg/m3, respectively. The national age-standardized prevalence rates of total VI (rp = 0.52, P < 0.001), glaucoma (rp = 0.65, P < 0.001), AMD (rp = 0.67, P < 0.001), and cataract (rp = 0.44, P < 0.001) have a positive correlation with PM2.5 levels. In addition, the national age-standardized DALY rates of total VI (rp = 0.62, P < 0.001), glaucoma (rp = 0.62, P < 0.001), AMD (rp = 0.54, P < 0.001), and cataract (rp = 0.45, P < 0.001) significantly correlated with PM2.5 levels. The correlations remained significant in different age, sex, and sociodemographic subgroups. Conclusion: National prevalence rates of VI and three major ocular diseases correlate significantly with PM2.5 exposure levels, worldwide.

Abstract Atrial fibrillation (AF)/atrial flutter (AFL) is the most common cardiac tachyarrhythmia, with an increasing trend in its burden in recent years. However, the burden of AF/AFL in Iran remains unclear. This study aimed to estimate the burden of AF/AFL and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019 at national and subnational levels. Using the comparative risk assessment method of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019, we extracted data on AF/AFL incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and their age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2019 and analyzed them based on by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The percentage contribution of AF/AFL major risk factors was calculated. Moreover, the AF/AFL burden in 2050 was projected using the United Nations world population prospect data. In 2019, there were 339.1 (259.4–433.7) thousand AF/AFL patients in Iran, with 30.2 (23.2–38.5) thousand new cases, 1.7 (1.5–2) thousand deaths and 48 (37.7–60.5) thousand DALYs. Females and 50–69-year-old patients recorded a higher burden for AF/AFL; however, the increasing trend was more pronounced in males and more than 85-year-old patients. High systolic blood pressure and elevated body mass index (BMI) were the predominant attributable risk factors for AF/AFL-related deaths and DALYs. It is estimated that in 2050, the number of AF/AFL patients will increase to 1.1 million people, the incidence of AF/AFL will increase to 91 thousand patients, and the number of AF/AFL-related deaths and DALYs will surge to 7.2 and 170.8 thousand, respectively. Despite advancements in prevention and treatment, AF/AFL remains a major public health problem in Iran. Given its largely preventable and treatable nature, more cost-effective strategies are required to target modifiable risk factors, especially within susceptible age and sex groups.

Abstract Background and objective Breast cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among women worldwide. This study aimed to assess the global burden of breast cancer and identify attributable risk factors across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors associated with breast cancer. We obtained and analyzed the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2021. We assessed geographical variations and the impact of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using regression analysis and stratification by SDI quintiles. Additionally, we estimated the risk factors attributable to breast cancer deaths and DALYs using the comparative risk assessment framework of the GBD study. Results Globally, breast cancer incident cases increased from 875,657 in 1990 to 2,121,564 in 2021. The ASIR rose from 16.42 to 26.88 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.54–1.60). High SDI regions showed the highest ASIR (66.89 per 100,000 in 2021), while Low SDI regions had the lowest (6.99 per 100,000 in 2021). The global ASDR decreased from 10.42 to 8.54 per 100,000, and the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased from 313.36 to 261.5 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2021. However, these improvements were not uniform across SDI regions. Risk factors included high body-mass index, alcohol use, tobacco, and high fasting plasma glucose, with variations across SDI regions. Conclusion The global burden of breast cancer has increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, with disparities observed across SDI regions. While high SDI areas show improvements in mortality and DALYs, lower SDI regions face increasing burdens. Targeted interventions addressing modifiable risk factors and improving healthcare access in less developed regions are crucial for reducing the global impact of breast cancer.

Abstract Background Tuberculosis (TB) is a major infectious disease with significant public health implications. Its widespread transmission, prolonged treatment duration, notable side effects, and high mortality rate pose severe challenges. This study examines the epidemiological characteristics of TB globally and across major regions, providing a scientific basis for enhancing TB prevention and control measures worldwide. Methods The ecological study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. It assessed new incidence cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), mortality rates (ASMRs), and DALY rates for drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB), multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), and extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project ASIR and ASMR. Results In 2021, the global ASIR for all HIV-negative TB was 103.00 per 100,000 population [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 92.21, 114.91 per 100,000 population], declining by 0.40% (95% UI: − 0.43, − 0.38%) compared to 1990. The global ASMR was 13.96 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 12.61, 15.72 per 100,000 population), with a decline of 0.44% (95% UI: − 0.61, − 0.23%) since 1990. The global age-standardized DALY rate for HIV-negative TB was 580.26 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 522.37, 649.82 per 100,000 population), showing a decrease of 0.65% (95% UI: − 0.69, − 0.57 per 100,000 population) from 1990. The global ASIR of MDR-TB has not decreased since 2015, instead, it has shown a slow upward trend in recent years. The ASIR of XDR-TB has exhibited significant increase in the past 30 years. The projections indicate MDR-TB and XDR-TB are expected to see significant increases in both ASIR and ASMR from 2022 to 2035, highlighting the growing challenge of drug-resistant TB. Conclusions This study found that the ASIR of MDR-TB and XDR-TB has shown an upward trend in recent years. To reduce the TB burden, it is essential to enhance health infrastructure and increase funding in low-SDI regions. Developing highly efficient, accurate, and convenient diagnostic reagents, along with more effective therapeutic drugs, and improving public health education and community engagement, are crucial for curbing TB transmission. Graphical Abstract

Abstract Background Migraine, a widespread neurological condition, substantially affects the quality of life, particularly for adolescents and young adults. While its impact is significant, there remains a paucity of comprehensive global research on the burden of migraine in younger demographics. Our study sought to elucidate the global prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with migraine in the 15–39 age group from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Methods Our comprehensive study analyzed migraine data from the GBD 2021 report, examining the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs across 204 countries and territories over a 32-year span. We stratified the information by age, sex, year, geographical region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). To evaluate temporal trends in these metrics, we employed the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculation. Results Between 1990 and 2021, the worldwide prevalence of migraine among 15–39 year-olds increased substantially. By 2021, an estimated 593.8 million cases were reported, representing a 39.52% rise from 425.6 million cases in 1990. Global trends showed increases in age-standardized prevalence rate, incidence rate, and DALY rate for migraine during this period. The EAPC were positive for all three metrics: 0.09 for ASPR, 0.03 for ASIR, and 0.09 for DALY rate. Regions with medium SDI reported the highest absolute numbers of prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs in 2021. However, high SDI regions demonstrated the most elevated rates overall. Across the globe, migraine prevalence peaked in the 35–39 age group. Notably, female rates consistently exceeded male rates across all age categories. Conclusion The global impact of migraine on youths and young adults has grown considerably from 1990 to 2021, revealing notable variations across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes. This escalating burden necessitates targeted interventions and public health initiatives, especially in areas and populations disproportionately affected by migraine.

Abstract Background The prevalence of stroke disability associated with high BMI has significantly increased over the past three decades. However, it remains uncertain whether high body-mass index (BMI) exerts a similar impact on the disease burden of different stroke subtypes. The aim of this study is to assess the long-term trends of stroke and subtypes mortality attributable to high BMI in China between 1990 and 2019. Methods Data on stroke and subtypes mortality attributable to high BMI in China was extracted in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019. The trends of age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated using the linear regression and age-period-cohort framework. Results The changing trend of ASMR on stroke attributable to high BMI in China differed among subtypes, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and 95%CI of 2.04 (1.86 to 2.21) for ischemic stroke (IS), 0.36 (-0.03 to 0.75) for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and − 4.62 (-5.44 to -3.78) for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Net and local drift analyses revealed a gradual increase in the proportion of older people with IS and a gradual increase in the proportion of younger people with hemorrhagic strokes. The cohort and period rate ratios varied by subtype, showing an increasing trend for IS and ICH but a decreasing trend for SAH. The stroke mortality attributable to high BMI increased significantly with age for IS and ICH, peaking between ages 50–70 for SAH. Notably, males had higher ASMR related to stroke but exhibited slighter declines or higher growth compared to females in China. Moreover, the population affected by fatal strokes tended to be older among females but more evenly distributed across a wider age range encompassing both younger and older individuals. Conclusion The research findings indicate a rising trend in the ASMR of stroke and subtypes attributable to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2019, with different patterns of change for different subtypes, genders and ages. Consequently, it is imperative for public health authorities in China to formulate guidelines for specific stroke subtypes, genders and ages to prevent the burden of stroke attributable to high BMI.

Abstract Background In recent years, the escalating concern for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has been recognized as a pressing global health issue. This concern is acutely manifested in low- and middle-income countries, where there is an escalating prevalence among adolescents and young adults. The burgeoning of these conditions threatens to impair patients' occupational capabilities and overall life quality. Despite the considerable global impact of NTDs, comprehensive studies focusing on their impact in younger populations remain scarce. Our study aims to describe the global prevalence of neglected tropical diseases among people aged 15 to 39 years over the 30-year period from 1990 to 2019, and to project the disease burden of the disease up to 2040. Methods Annual data on incident cases, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for NTDs were procured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). These data were stratified by global and regional distribution, country, social development index (SDI), age, and sex. We computed age-standardized rates (ASRs) and the numbers of incident cases, mortalities, and DALYs from 1990 to 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the ASRs was calculated to evaluate evolving trends. Results In 2019, it was estimated that there were approximately 552 million NTD cases globally (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 519.9 million to 586.3 million), a 29% decrease since 1990. South Asia reported the highest NTD prevalence, with an estimated 171.7 million cases (95% UI: 150.4 million to 198.6 million). Among the five SDI categories, the prevalence of NTDs was highest in the moderate and low SDI regions in 1990 (approximately 270.5 million cases) and 2019 (approximately 176.5 million cases). Sub-Saharan Africa recorded the most significant decline in NTD cases over the past three decades. Overall, there was a significant inverse correlation between the disease burden of NTDs and SDI. Conclusion NTDs imposed over half a billion incident cases and 10.8 million DALYs lost globally in 2019—exerting an immense toll rivaling major infectious and non-communicable diseases. Encouraging declines in prevalence and disability burdens over the past three decades spotlight the potential to accelerate progress through evidence-based allocation of resources. Such strategic integration could substantially enhance public awareness about risk factors and available treatment options.

Abstract Background Even with advances in primary health care, depressive disorders remain a major global public health problem. We conducted an in-depth analysis of global, regional and national trends in depressive disorders incidence over the past 30 years. Methods Data on the incidence of depressive disorders were obtained by sex (female, male, and both), location (204 countries), age (5–84 years), year (1990–2019) from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Further, age-period-cohort modeling was used to estimate the net drift, local drift, age, period and cohort effects between 1990 and 2019. Results In 2019, although the incidence of depressive disorders has increased by 59.3% to 290 million (95% UI: 256, 328), the age-standardized incidence rate has decreased by 2.35% to 3588.25 per 100,000 people (3152.71, 4060.42) compared to 1990. There was an emerging transition of incidences from the young and middle-aged population to the old population. From 1990 to 2019, the net drift of incidence rate ranged from −0.54% (−0.61%, −0.47%) in low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions to 0.52% (0.25%, 0.79%) in high SDI regions. Globally, the incidence rate of depressive disorders increases with age, period effects showing a decreasing risk and cohort effects beginning to decline after the 1960s. Conclusions Our current findings reflect substantial health disparities and potential priority-setting of depressive disorders incidence in the three dimensions of age, period and cohort across SDI regions, countries. The scope of healthcare to improve the progression of depressive disorders events can be expanded to include males, females of all ages.

This study offers a detailed analysis of clinical trials conducted in Ecuador from 2010 to 2022 to assess alignment with the country’s disease burden as indicated by the Global Burden of Disease study. Utilizing data from five registries, including ARCSA and Clinicaltrials.gov, we analyzed characteristics and coverage of 75 CTs after removing duplicates and ineligible studies. Findings reveal a 50% research gap across disease groups, with neoplasms being the only category matching disease burden. The scarcity of clinical research highlights the disparity between CTs and prevalent diseases such as cardiovascular and kidney diseases, diabetes, and other non-communicable conditions. Our results underscore the urgent need for increased clinical research investment addressing these critical health challenges in Ecuador.

Introduction Assessing the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) attributable to secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure is crucial for informing evidence-based healthcare practices, prevention strategies, and resource allocation planning. Methods The burden of IHD attributable to SHS from 1990 to 2019 was assessed using the comparative risk assessment method as part of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. Results Globally, the absolute number of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from IHD due to SHS increased substantially from 270.0 thousand and 6971.3 thousand in 1990 to 397.4 thousand and 9566.1 thousand in 2019. The corresponding age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR) were both in a decreasing trend with estimate of the annual percentage change (EAPC) of -1.38 (-1.42 – -1.34) and -1.43 (-1.47 – -1.38). Central Asia has the highest ASMR (16 per 100000, 95% uncertainty interval, UI: 12.8–19.4), and Oceania has the highest ASDR (323.2 per 100000, 95% UI: 228.9–443.1 per 100000) in 2019. All sociodemographic index (SDI) category regions showed a decreasing trend in ASMR and ASDR, with the decrease being more obvious in high and high-middle SDI regions. Our analysis identified an escalating trend concerning ASMR and ASDR in Oceania from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the most significant number of deaths and DALYs occurred in the age group of 80–84 years (5.4 thousand, 95% UI: 3.7–7.3 in thousands) and the age group of 55–59 years (1140.8 thousand, 95% UI: 876.1–1435 in thousands). Conclusions Our study reveals an absolute global increase in deaths and DALYs from IHD due to SHS from 1990 to 2019. Despite a declining trend in ASMR and ASDR, regional disparities persist. The elderly and middle-aged populations bore the most significant burden. These findings highlight the ongoing global health impact of SHS on IHD and emphasize the need for targeted interventions in regions with rising trends and vulnerable age groups.

Diagnosing the current health status and disease burden in a population is crucial for public health interventions. The ability to compare the burden of different diseases through a single measure, such as disability-adjusted life years has become feasible and continues to be produced and updated through the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study. However, the disease burden values of the GBD study do not accurately reflect the unique situation in a specific country with various circumstances. In response, the Korean National Burden of Disease (KNBD) study was conducted to estimate the disease burden in Koreans by considering Korea’s cultural context and utilizing the available data sources at the national level. Both studies identified non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes mellitus (DM), as the primary cause of disease burden among Koreans. However, the extent of public health interventions currently being conducted by the central and local governments does not align with the severity of the disease burden. This review suggests that despite the high burden of DM in South Korea, the current policies may not fully address its impact, underscoring the need for expanded chronic disease management programs and a shift towards prevention-focused healthcare paradigms.

Abstract This study aimed to assess the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of stroke and its subtypes due to low dietary fiber intake in China from 1990 to 2019. In cases of stroke and its subtypes attributable to low dietary fiber, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR), and percentage change were used to assess disease burden. Data were obtained from the 2019 global burden of disease study. Trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis. Between 1990 and 2019, there was a declining trend in stroke and its subtypes, ASDR and ASMR, as well as the corresponding number of deaths and DALYs, due to low dietary fiber intake in China. Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SH) showed the greatest decrease, followed by intracerebral hemorrhage (IH) and ischemic stroke (IS). Local drift curves showed a U-shaped distribution of stroke, IS, and IH DALYs across the whole group and sex-based groups. For mortality, the overall and male trends were similar to those for DALYs, whereas female stroke, IH, and IS showed an upward trend. The DALYs for stroke and IH showed a clear bimodal distribution, IS showed an increasing risk with age. For mortality, the SH subtype showed a decreasing trend, whereas other subtypes showed an increasing risk with age. Both the period and cohort rates of stroke DALYs and motality due to low dietary fiber have declined. Males had a higher risk of DALYs and mortality associated with low fiber levels. The burden of stroke and its subtypes associated with a low-fiber diet in China has been declining over the past 30 years, with different patterns of change for different stroke subtypes and a higher burden for males, highlighting the differential impact of fiber intake on stroke and its subtypes.

Abstract Background The growing prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in younger populations, particularly those of working age (15–64 years), has become a public health concern. Being diagnosed at a younger age implies a greater likelihood of accruing disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) later in life due to potential progression to conditions such as cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. This study aims to analyze NAFLD prevalence trends over three decades globally, regionally, and nationally, with a focus on age, period, and birth cohort associations. Methods Global, regional, and country time trends in the prevalence of NAFLD among working-age people from 1990 to 2019: Age-period-cohort analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 estimates and 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of NAFLD prevalence in the working age population was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the prevalence within each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period bias (age effect), and period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect). Results The global age-standardized prevalence (ASPR) of NAFLD increased significantly from 1990 (14,477.6 per 100 000) to 2019 (19,837.6 per 100 000). In the Western Pacific, there were 42,903.8 NAFLD cases in 2019, 54.15% higher than in 1990. The ASPR also increased significantly in the region over the past three decades. At the national level, Palau had the highest ASPR while Brunei Darussalam had the lowest. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that in the Western Pacific, unlike globally, the risk of NAFLD declined after age 60–64 years. Relative to 1980–1989, incidence and DALY risks decreased but prevalence increased in subsequent birth cohorts. Future predictions indicate an upward trend in NAFLD burden, especially among women and medium (SDI) regions like China. Conclusion Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease imparts an immense health burden that continues to grow globally and in the Asia Pacific region. Our work highlights working age adults as an at-risk group and calls attention to socioeconomic gradients within Western Pacific countries. Upward future projections demonstrate that NAFLD prevention is an urgent priority.

Abstract Background The economic crisis that began in 2008 has severely affected Southern (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain) Western European (SWE) countries of Western Europe (WE) and may have affected ongoing efforts to eliminate viral hepatitis. This study was conducted to investigate the impact of the economic crisis on the burden of HBV and HCV disease. Methods Global Burden of Diseases 2019 data were used to analyse the rates of epidemiological metrics of HBV and HCV acute and chronic infections in SWE and WE. Time series modelling was performed to quantify the impact of healthcare expenditure on the time trend of HBV and HCV disease burden in 2000–2019. Results Declining trends in incidence and prevalence rates of acute HBV (aHBV) and chronic HBV were observed in SWE and WE, with the pace of decline being slower in the post-austerity period (2010–2019) and mortality due to HBV stabilised in SWE. Acute HCV (aHCV) metrics and chronic HCV incidence and mortality showed a stable trend in SWE and WE, whereas the prevalence of chronic HCV showed an oscillating trend, decreasing in WE in 2010–2019 (p

Abstract Background Drug use disorders (DUDs) have emerged as one of the most significant public health crises, exerting a substantial influence on both community health and socio-economic progress. The United States (US) also suffers a heavy burden, it is necessary to figure out the situation from multiple perspectives and take effective measures to deal with it. Therefore, using the data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2021, we evaluated this topic. Methods Annual data on DUDs-related burden were collected from the GBD study 2021. We calculated the indicator of estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to evaluate the changing trend of burden. The Bayesian model for age-period-cohort was introduced to forecast the burden. Results In 2021, the number and age-standardized rate of prevalence were particularly prominent, with 12,146.95 thousand and 3821.43 per 100,000, respectively. Higher burden was also observed in males, 15–45 years old populations, and opioid use disorders subtype. From 1990 to 2021, the DUDs-related burden increased in the US and all states, especially in West Virginia; and the national death-related burden with the highest increase (EAPC = 7.96). Other significant inverse associations were seen between EAPC, age-standardized rates, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Moreover, in the next 14 years, the projected DUDs burden remains exigent. Conclusions The burden of DUDs in the US is heavy and has been enlarging. This study proposes that greater attention should be paid to the strategies in males, the younger population, opioid use disorders, and low-SDI states implemented by decision-makers to achieve goals such as reducing burden.

Abstract High systolic blood pressure (HSBP) is associated with several metabolic and non-metabolic disorders. This research aimed to document the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to HSBP in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, underlying cause and socio-demographic index (SDI). We used the methodological framework and data drawn from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 to identify the burden of diseases attributable to HSBP, from 1990 to 2019, in the MENA region. The estimates reported were presented as counts, population-attributable fractions, and age-standardised rates (per 100,000), along with 95% uncertainty intervals. In 2019, 803.6 thousand (687.1 to 923.8) deaths were attributed to HSBP in MENA, which accounted for 25.9% (22.9–28.6%) of all deaths. The number of regional DALYs caused by HSBP in 2019 was 19.0 million (16.3–21.9 million), which accounted for 11.6% (10.1–13.3%) of all DALYs, and was 23.4% (15.9–31.5%) lower than in 1990. The highest age-standardised DALY rate for 2019 was observed in Afghanistan, with the lowest in Kuwait. Additionally, the DALY rate in MENA rose with age for both sexs. Furthermore, a negative linear relationship was found between SDI and the age-standardised DALY rates. The region has a substantial HSBP-related burden. Policymakers and healthcare professionals should prioritize interventions that effectively promote the early detection of HSBP, access to quality healthcare, and lifestyle modifications to mitigate the HSBP burden in the MENA countries.

Background Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) has a high incidence and a heavy disease burden in recent years, but there is a lack of data to understand the burden of GERD in China. This study describes and analyzes the disease burden of GERD in order to better understand the prevalence of GERD in China. Objective To analyze the disease burden and prevalence trend of GERD in China from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a reference for the prevention and treatment of GERD in China. Methods Crude and standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of GERD in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2019 (GBD 2019) ; the rate of change was calculated, and Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of GERD, and the annual percentage change (APC) was calculated. Results In 2019, the crude rate and standardized rate of GERD incidence in China were 2 299.80 per 100 000 and 1 841.66 per 100 000, respectively. Compared with 1 761.59 per 100 000 and 1 849.31 per 100 000 in 1990, the crude rate increased by 30.55%, and the standardized rate decreased by 0.41%. In 2019, the crude rate and standardized rate of GERD prevalence in China were 5 739.55 per 100 000 and 4 509.32 per 100 000, respectively. Compared with 4 252.72 per 100 000 and 4 532.19 per 100 000 in 1990, the crude rate increased by 34.96%, and the standardized rate decreased by 0.51%. In 2019, the crude rate and standardized rate of GERD DALY rate in China were 44.37 per 100 000 and 34.94 per 100 000, respectively. Compared with 33.10 per 100 000 and 35.04 per 100 000 in 1990, the crude rate increased by 34.05%, and the standardized rate decreased by 0.29%. The standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates were lower than crude rates after 1996. The standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of Chinese women were higher than those of men from 1990 to 2019. The results of Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the standardized incidence of GERD in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 1994 (APC=-1.0%), a downward trend from 2005 to 2010 (APC=-1.4%), and an upward trend from 2014 to 2017 (APC=3.2%). The standardized prevalence of GERD in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 1994 (APC=-1.2%), a downward trend from 2005 to 2009 (APC=-1.7%), and an upward trend from 2014 to 2017 (APC=3.7%). The standardized DALY rates of GERD in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 1994 (APC=-1.1%), a downward trend from 2005 to 2009 (APC=-1.7%), and an upward trend from 2014 to 2017 (APC=3.6%). In 2019, the standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of GERD in China continued to increase with age, peaking at the age of 70 to 84 years. The number of new cases and cases of GERD in 2019 were respectively about 32.711 3 million and 81.636 5 million, and the populations were mainly concentrated in the age group of 45 to 59 years and 30 to 34 years. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of GERD in China showed an upward trend in terms of crude rate and a slight decline in terms of standardized rate, indicating that aging had a great impact on the incidence, prevalence and DALY rate of GERD in China. In addition, it is important to pay attention to the middle-aged and young population, who account for a larger proportion of the population already suffering from GERD and may be closely related to overweight or obesity, alcohol consumption and dietary habits, etc.

BackgroundThis study aimed to examine the evolving trends in the global burden of low back pain (LBP) from 1990 to 2021 and predicted disease burden until 2035.Materials and methodsLBP-related data were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) query tool. All estimates and their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool in Global Burden of Disease, Injury, and Risk Factor Study (GBD) 2021. Data processing and visualization were conducted using The R Programming Language software version 4.3.2 and Joinpoint 4.7.ResultsIn 2021, approximately 628.8 million people worldwide were affected by LBP, with approximately 266.9 million new incident cases and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 3176.6 per 100,000. Compared with 1990, although the ASIR and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDALYsR) decreased, absolute numbers increased significantly. Projections for 2035 reveal a continued decline in ASIR and ASDALYsR for LBP. The LBP burden varied by the sociodemographic index quintile and GBD region, with the highest ASIR and ASDALYsR observed in Central Europe and the greatest decrease in East Asia. Globally, women bear a higher burden of LBP than men, with middle-aged populations experiencing the heaviest burden. Occupational ergonomic factors, high body mass index, and smoking remain the primary risk factors for LBP, with occupational ergonomic factors contributing the most to the overall burden.ConclusionDespite a projected decline in incidence, the global burden of LBP persists, exhibiting significant regional and gender disparities. To mitigate its future burden, precise and effective prevention and control strategies targeting high-risk factors are imperative.

Background: Exposure to trichloroethylene (TCE) in occupations is associated with an increased risk of kidney cancer (KC). However, there is a lack of comprehensive study on the global burden of occupational exposure to TCE-related KC. Methods: Epidemiological data on occupational TCE exposure-associated KC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, including death counts and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Global burden of this disease was stratified by genders, age, socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles, GBD subcontinental regions, and countries. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to illustrate trends over the last 32 years, and forecasts were conducted to predict the disease burden until 2050. Results: In 2021, the global age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of occupational TCE exposure-related KC was 0.0009 (95 %UI: 0.0002–0.0016) per 100,000 persons, and the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDAR) was 0.0284 (95 %UI: 0.0062–0.0522) per 100,000 individuals. The disease showed significant heterogeneity by sex and age, with males bearing a notably higher burden, and the burden being concentrated in the 50–79 year-old group. Major burdens were focused in middle to high-middle SDI regions, especially in Southern Latin America (Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile). Over 32 years, the burden of occupational TCE exposure-associated KC has gradually increased, with projections indicating continued growth to 2050, particularly among males and individuals aged 50–79. Regions like high-middle SDI areas, North America, High-income North America, Southern Sub-Saharan Africa, saw the most significant increases. Correlation analyses indicated a positive association between ASDR and ASDAR with SDI, while EAPC showed a notable negative correlation with SDI. Decomposition analyses reveals three global population determinants that positively contributed to the increase in deaths, but negatively impacted DALYs. Conclusion: This study highlights a significant rising trend of occupational TCE exposure-associated KC from 1990 to 2021 and projected to 2050, with an emphasis on the disease burden in men, elderly population, and middle to high-middle SDI regions, underscoring the impact of occupational TCE exposure on KC.

Background Nonrheumatic valvular heart disease (NRVD) is increasingly becoming a significant public health concern, particularly among older people. In the context of population aging, a detailed report on the epidemiological trends of NRVD is crucial for policymakers to effectively allocate health care resources. This study aimed to explore these trends using data from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2019 study. Methods and Results We assessed the changing trends of the incidence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life years rates for NRVD by calculating the estimated annual percentage change for each. Additionally, we examined the impact of a region's level of social development on NRVD epidemiological trends and identified key risk factors contributing to NRVD‐related deaths. Between 1990 and 2019, the global incidence of NRVD showed a gradual increase, with an estimated annual percentage change of 0.39 (95% CI, 0.30–0.48). The data revealed that women and older people are more likely to develop NRVD. High‐sociodemographic index countries exhibited higher age‐standardized incidence and mortality rates compared with low‐ and middle‐sociodemographic index countries. The most significant risk factor for NRVD‐related mortality was identified as high systolic blood pressure. Conclusions Over the past 3 decades, the burden of NRVD has intensified, indicating a need for more health care resources to address this issue, which is closely associated with an aging population. Currently, high‐sociodemographic index countries report the highest incidences and deaths due to NRVD. However, low‐ and middle‐sociodemographic index countries should also implement measures to manage the rapidly increasing burden of NRVD.

Background Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in young adults demands greater attention, given its poor prognosis; however, there has been a paucity of epidemiological data. The objective of this study is to estimate the temporal trends and distribution characteristics of the disease burden in 204 countries or territories between 1990 and 2021. Methods and Results The data, including incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability‐adjusted life year (DALY) rates were sourced from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021. From 1990 to 2021, there was a significant decline in the global incidence (estimated annual percentage change=−1.05), mortality (estimated annual percentage change=−0.92), and DALY (estimated annual percentage change=−1.00) rates of ICH in young adults. In 2021, the highest incidence, mortality, and DALY rates were observed in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania. Globally, high systolic blood pressure, smoking, and ambient particulate matter pollution were identified as the primary contributors to the largest proportion of DALYs associated with ICH in young adults. The health inequality of ICH in young adults has been reduced over the past 3 decades. Conclusions There is a considerable degree of heterogeneity in the global burden of ICH in young adults. A decline in the incidence, mortality, prevalence, and DALY rates has been observed from 1990 to 2021, however, the number of absolute cases has increased. These results will enable health care professionals, policymakers, and researchers to refine the implementation of cost‐effective policies, the allocation of health care resources, and the management of patients to further mitigate the burden of ICH in young adults.

Objective: To conduct a comprehensive global epidemiological investigation of soft tissue and extraosseous sarcomas from 1990 to 2021 and uncover the demographic and geographical variations. Methods: Incidence and death data of soft tissue and extraosseous sarcomas between 1990 and 2021 were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. The estimated annual percentage change was calculated. The demographic patterns were analyzed in-depth based on age and gender. Results: From 1990 to 2021, there was an increase in the number and crude rate of incidence and death of soft tissue and extraosseous sarcomas, while age-standardized rate declined. Males consistently exhibited a heavier burden compared to females. The incidence and death rates of soft tissue and extraosseous sarcomas generally increased with age, with a similar pattern in both males and females. Compared to 1990, the incidence rate among the elderly increased in 2021, while the incidence rate in children under 5 decreased, and there was little change in other age groups. The death rate among children and the elderly has decreased, while little change in other age groups has been observed. Conclusions: The disease burden of soft tissue and extraosseous sarcomas remains a critical challenge. Data-driven analysis is crucial for guiding clinical practice, informing public health policies, and shaping future research agendas.

Summary: Background: Congenital birth defects (CBDs) present enormous challenges to global healthcare systems. These conditions severely impact patients' health and underscore issues related to socioeconomic development and healthcare accessibility and efficiency. Previous studies have been geographically limited and lacked comprehensive global analysis. This study provides global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data for four major congenital birth defects—congenital heart defects (CHD), neural tube defects (NTDs), digestive congenital anomalies (DCAs), and Down syndrome (DS) from 1990 to 2021, emphasizing health inequalities. The goal is to offer scientific evidence for optimizing resource allocation, focusing on high-burden populations, and reducing disease burden. Methods: This study systematically evaluated the global, regional, and national burden of CBDs and their changes from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021. To conduct a more focused analysis, four specific CBDs were selected: CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS. DALYs were used as the metric, combined with the sociodemographic index (SDI). Analyses included the slope index of inequality and concentration index to measure health inequalities, frontier analysis to estimate achievable outcomes based on development levels, decomposition analysis to identify drivers of disease burden changes, Joinpoint regression analysis to assess temporal trends, and the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict future disease burden trends. Findings: Compared to 1990, the global burden of the CBDs in 2021 showed a downward trend. Males had a higher burden than females, with the highest burden observed in low-SDI regions. When examining CHD, NTDs, DCAs, and DS specifically, trends in burden changes varied across different CBDs at the global, regional, and national levels. Frontier analysis revealed potential for burden improvement in various countries and territories. Decomposition analysis highlighted differences in disease burden drivers across SDI regions, showing the greatest improvement observed in low-SDI regions. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a downward trend in DALYs burden across SDI regions, and BAPC model predictions suggested that the burden of CBDs will continue to decline in the future. Interpretation: CBDs pose a major challenge to global public health. Despite an overall decline in disease burden, health inequalities remain prominent, particularly in countries and territories with lower levels of development. Future public health interventions should focus on countries and territories with low levels of development by optimizing healthcare resource allocation, improving basic health infrastructure, enhancing health education, and reducing disease burden inequalities. Global collaboration and data sharing are essential to promote a lifecycle management model for CBDs research and treatment, advancing global health development. Funding: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 82270310) and the Jiangsu Provincial Key Research and Development Program (No. BE2023662).

Summary: Background: Dementia among younger people is rapidly emerging as a global health concern; however, comprehensive research on its shifting burden trends remains insufficient. Methods: Data on the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with dementia occurring in individuals

ABSTRACT Background Despite remarkable progress in contemporary medical technology and enhanced survival outcomes for various cancer types, pancreatic cancer (PC) continues to stand out as a particularly deadly gastrointestinal malignancy. Given a persistent rise in both incidence and the corresponding mortality rates of PC globally, evaluations of PC burden by sex are of great importance. Here, we used the illness‐death multi‐state model (IDM) to forecast the prevalence of PC through the year 2040. Methods IDM was established based on obtainable data to predict the future prevalence of PC on global, regional, and national scales from 2019 to 2040. Analyses were also performed regarding sex and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented for all estimates. Results The projected prevalence rate for 2040 is anticipated to be 6.093 ([95% CI 5.47–6.786] per 100,000) worldwide, indicating a significant increase of 31.45% since 1990, and a 12.29% increase since 2019. The estimated average annual increase since 2020 was 0.5%. Considering sex differences, females are expected to have a steeper slope in prevalence rate than males. Intriguingly, when considering the percentage changes between the periods of 2019–2040 and 1990–2019 for both sexes, females exhibited 29% and 11% increase relative to males (2.6‐fold greater increase). Conclusions By 2040, it is predicted that the prevalence of PC will increase globally, with women being at higher risk of developing the disease. Considering the percentage changes, regions with lower socioeconomic status are anticipated to face a greater risk of experiencing PC compared to other geographical areas.

BackgroundMaternal sepsis and other maternal infections (MSMIs) are major public health concerns worldwide. However, comprehensive data on their global burden and evolving trends remain sparse. This study aims to explore the epidemiological trends of MSMIs in women of childbearing age (WCBA) from 1990 to 2019, investigate the relationship between disease burden and age, period, and birth cohorts, and then provide a prediction of MSMIs incidence and deaths.MethodsThe estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the incidence and death number of MSMIs in seven age groups (15–19, 20–24, 25–29, 30–34, 35–39, 40–44, 45–49 years) were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs in WCBA were estimated utilizing the age standardization by direct method. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to investigate the changing trends of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates from 1990 to 2019. Age-period-cohort analysis was utilized to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohorts. Furthermore, a Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was implemented to predict the global epidemiological trends through 2044.ResultsIn 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs in WCBA were 1072.90 (95% UI: 725.93 to 1483.46) and 0.86 (95% UI: 0.69 to 1.05), respectively. The highest disease burden existed in the African Region. From 1990 to 2019, the estimated global age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MSMIs (AAPC: -1.32, 95% CI: −1.34 to −1.30; AAPC: -3.39, 95% CI: −4.28 to −2.48) in WCBA both demonstrated significant declining trends. The changing trends varied significantly across 6 regions and 204 countries. The effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality rates differed. From 2020 to 2044, the global age-standardized incidence rate of MSMIs in WCBA was predicted to decrease whereas the case number increases slowly.ConclusionThe global trends in MSMIs incidence and mortality generally showed a decline with considerable heterogeneity, indicating both the effectiveness and unevenness of global management of MSMIs. Moreover, the predicted increased case number highlights prominent challenges in the control of MSMIs.

ObjectivesThis study aimed to explore the burden of disease and disparities in age-related macular degeneration (AMD) at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, with a particular focus on associations with age, period, and cohort.MethodsWe derived disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and age-standardized rates of AMD from the GBD 2019. We used an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the overall annual percentage changes in DALYs (net drifts), the annual percentage changes in different age groups (local drifts), the longitudinal age profiles (longitudinal age-specific rates), and the relative risks of period and cohort (period and cohort effects) between 1990 and 2019. Further analysis was conducted by country, region, gender and sociodemographic index (SDI).ResultsGlobally, the number of DALYs increased from 296771.9321 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 205462.8041–418699.8184) in 1990 to 564055.0967 (95% UI, 392930.6967–789194.6407) in 2019 (59.7% were female), while the age-standardized DALYs rates decreased from 8.29 per 100,000 (95% UI, 5.8–11.58/100,000) to 7.05 per 100,000 (95% UI, 4.92–9.84/100,000). With increasing age, the burden of AMD increased, and the DALYs rates in female was greater than that in male in all age groups. The burden of disease varied across SDI regions and countries. The top three countries in terms of the number of DALYs were China, India and Italy, accounting for 45% of the global total.ConclusionThe burden of AMD varied according to SDI, country, and sex from 1990 to 2019. Due to global population growth and aging, AMD will continue to be a major public health problem in the future, and relevant health policies need to be continuously improved and optimized.

Introduction: Head injuries (HI) pose a significant public health concern globally, impacting morbidity, mortality, and economic burden. This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiology and trends associated with head injuries in Iran from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Our study, based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019, undertook a comprehensive comparison of the burden of HI in Iran with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and global benchmarks. We assessed the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLD) through various metrics, including absolute numbers, age-standardized rates (ASR), percentage changes, and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) from 1990 to 2019. Results: The incidence of HI in Iran decreased significantly from 1990 to 2019, with a notable reduction compared to MENA and global trends (EAPC: -1.44, 0.71, and -0.11, respectively). Prevalence showed a declining trend (EAPC: -1.00), with a slight increase in YLDs (EAPC: 0.12). Notable peaks in HI incidence coincided with natural disasters, notably the 1990 Manjil-Rudbar earthquake and the 2003 Bam earthquake. Conclusion: Our study reveals a decline in the overall burden of HI in Iran over the study period. To sustain this positive trend and minimize the impact of HI on public health and socioeconomic well-being, policy efforts should be directed toward ongoing prevention, early detection, and preparedness for natural disasters.

BackgroundThis research endeavors to scrutinize the temporal trends and global burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) associated with ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution spanning from 1990 to 2019.MethodsAge-standardized death rates (ASDRs) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for CVDs, as well as their estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), were calculated using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019).ResultsThe global ASDR and age-standardized DALYs due to CVDs associated with PM pollution increased from 1990 to 2019, with a higher increase in males. The burden was higher among middle-aged and older adults. The ASDR and DALYs increased in low-Socio-demographic Index (SDI), low–middle-SDI, and middle-SDI countries, while they decreased in high-SDI countries. The highest burden was observed in Central Asia, North Africa, the Middle East, East Asia, and South Asia. The highest burdens were reported in Iraq, Egypt, and Uzbekistan at the national level.ConclusionThe burden of CVDs linked to PM pollution has grown significantly from 1990 to 2019, with variations across regions and countries, highlighting the need for targeted prevention and pollution management strategies.

IntroductionNutritional deficiencies (NDs) manifest in various forms and are widespread globally. However, a systematic evaluation of the epidemiology of NDs across all causes and age groups in different countries and regions has not been conducted.Materials and methodsThis study aimed to utilize data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to assess the burden and trends of NDs, including their incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Additionally, the study evaluated health inequalities at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2019.ResultIn 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of NDs was 2,207.71 per 100,000 individuals (95% UI 1,863.04–2,604.67), and the age-standardized DALYs (ASR-DALYs) was 680.12 per 100,000 individuals (95% UI 507.21–894.89). Among the causes of NDs, dietary iron deficiency had the highest ASR-DALYs and exhibited minimal variation. Children under the age of 5 years faced the greatest risk of NDs. Sex disparity was evident, with males having lower rates than females. Although the gap in the burden of NDs between regions classified as poor and wealthy decreased, disparities persist.ConclusionThese findings provide critical insights for the development of global health strategies aimed at mitigating NDs and may guide policymakers in implementing effective and economically viable interventions.